####018003505#### FXUS63 KBIS 081906 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 206 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated to scattered rain showers are expected this afternoon and evening, especially in northwestern North Dakota. - A transition to warmer and drier weather is expected Thursday through the weekend. - Confidence is increasing that more widespread precipitation chances will return to the region during the first half of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 206 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024 Low pressure that was vertically stacked over southwestern ND/northwestern SD has become elongated as it quickly shifts southeast through the remainder of today into tonight. During this time, the area will remain in cyclonic flow resulting in continued isolated to scattered showers this afternoon and evening, especially in the northwest. There remains a low chance that a thunderstorm or two could creep up into the southern James River Valley of ND later today. However, the best thunderstorm potential looks to remain south of the forecast area. For Thursday, a quick-moving ridge on a west to east axis passes through the area bringing warmer temperatures to the region. A weak trailing shortwave will flatten the ridge and bring a 20 percent chance of showers primarily to western ND Thursday afternoon. A few showers could then continue in southwestern to central ND during the evening. Beyond that, conditions look mostly dry through the weekend as flow aloft becomes northwesterly. During the weekend, models are in fair agreement that somewhat weak upper low pressure will develop over the Four Corners region and progress eastward, while more organized low pressure passes through south central Canada towards the southern Hudson Bay. A trailing trough off the Hudson Bay low brings the best chances of precipitation towards the middle of the week. Regardless, the main thing is that starting Sunday night, multiple waves of energy may bring precipitation to the forecast area. A lack of agreement means exact details on timing, precipitation totals, and thunderstorm potential are not yet known. Temperatures will continue a gradual warming trend into this weekend. Highs Thursday and Friday will be mostly in the mid to upper 60s. By the weekend, however, most locations should see low to mid 70 degree readings. A cooling trend is then favored to start the next workweek as aforementioned troughing may bring cooler air to the region. That said, NBM 25th/75th percentile spreads remain semi-large (around 10 degrees) for high temperatures next week, so some uncertainty certainly does exist. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1251 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024 MVFR ceilings continue to prevail primarily over western ND at this time. That said, ceilings should improve to VFR over the next few hours and remain that way through the rest of the period. The one exception is that isolated to scattered showers are possible mainly through this evening. The best chances are a 30 to 40 percent chance in the northwest this afternoon. Either way, brief reductions in ceilings and visibility are possible under any passing showers. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Telken AVIATION...Telken ####018009318#### FXUS63 KIND 081908 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 308 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Diminishing severe weather threat. Main threat will be to the far SW and S Central Indiana. - Heavy rain is possible at times through through tonight across the far southeast. - Periodic chances for showers and a few storms late week into early next week. - Normal to slightly below normal temperatures Thursday through Saturday with warmer temperatures next week. && .SHORT TERM (This evening through Thursday)... Issued at 307 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024 Quite a few changes made to the forecast for the rest of the evening with this afternoon's forecast package as the severe weather threat across much of Central Indiana has diminished. Still watching far southwest and southern Indiana for severe weather potential tonight; however the threat significantly diminishes northward into Central Indiana. For most of the day, Central Indiana has been positioned within a weak low level ridge, but also within strong upstream forcing and moisture return. The ridge overhead and numerous convective activity along the front has kept it from surging northward into Indiana as guidance previously suggested over the past few days. Strong daytime heating of the boundary layer has resulted in temperatures rising into the 70s and low 80s in Central Indiana; however deep mixing has brought down significantly drier air to the surface. Latest IND ACARs sounding continues to show significant dry air through the column with mixing heights over 1 km agl. Observations at KIND have reported dew points falling into the mid to upper 40s at times this afternoon creating a strong north to south dew point gradient across the state with dew points ranging from the the 40s north of I-70 to mid 60s in South Central and SW Indiana. Satellite imagery clearly depicts a strong instability gradient south of the region with billowing cumulus clouds from Central Missouri to Southern Illinois and across Southern Kentucky. North of that instability gradient, strong low level capping, observed on the Louisville ACARs sounding, has prevented cu development, even in areas in South Central Indiana with better moisture return and higher dew points. Once that cap breaks, short term hi-re models do show convection developing along and south of this dew point gradient in far SW and South Central Indiana. Confidence is increasing that the severe weather threat will likely stay along and south of this line from around Sullivan Co IN to Columbus to Greensburg, IN. Even then, confidence is low in severe weather making it much further north than the Ohio River, but this will be something closely monitored over the next few hours. Confidence is also increasing that areas north of that line, including the I-70 corridor and Indy Metro area and points north will likely escape the severe weather this evening and tonight. For areas that do see pop up convection this evening, main severe weather threats will be damaging winds, large hail, and possible flooding in areas the received high rainfall amounts yesterday. Timing for potential severe weather is around 4pm to 9pm. As far as the atmospheric set up, the discussion from this morning sums it up very well. The wind profile looks much differently than yesterday, with winds in the lower 3km much weaker due to the aforementioned ridge. However, winds aloft will remain rather robust with a westerly 500mb to 300mb jet placed direction aloft. This will likely lead to a variety of storm modes including multicell clusters and lines as well as a few supercells. Any supercells that due develop will have the tendency to split. Within the initial evening threat. Tornadoes look unlikely given the lack of low level winds, and high LCLs, but a strongly deviant right movers in far southern central Indiana where dew points are elevated could have enough streamwise vorticity ingestion for isolated tornadoes. Hail and wind on the other hand will pose the main threat for Southern and SW Indiana. Deep CAPE profiles with strong flow through the Hail Growth Zone will promote a large hail threat, and dry mid-level air and DCAPE values over 1000J/kg should create a environment capable of efficient downward momentum transfer and a damaging wind threat. These threats will be greatest in any supercells that form (especially hail within left movers). There is a flooding threat across portions of SE Indiana where 1.5 to 3 inches of rain fell from yesterdays storms. There is a Flood Watch out for the SE Indiana counties from 6PM to 3AM as any heavy rain from potential storms will easily be able to cause flooding on local streams and low lying areas. .Tonight... As mentioned above, the main warm front and instability/moisture gradients continue to remain further south than what previous guidance has depicted. Today's guidance has picked up on that trend and keeps any overnight convection along these boundaries, keeping much of Central and North Central Indiana drier. Rainfall under the anvil of a developing convective complex along the front will likely make it into Central Indiana later this evening and tonight, but amounts will be very light. && .LONG TERM (Thursday night through Wednesday)... Issued at 307 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024 Numerous upper waves will be moving through during the long term period bringing multiple chances for showers and thunderstorms, especially for the latter half of the period. Temperatures will start out slightly below to near normal and warm back to above normal for next week. Friday will start off with the first upper wave passing overhead but there doesn't appear to be much moisture with it. While a few isolated sprinkles can't be ruled out, it appears more likely that conditions will remain largely dry enough Friday to keep PoPs near 10% per guidance. The next wave will bring a better chance of precip as the associated surface low tracks across the Great Lakes Friday through Saturday. This wave has led to PoPs for much of central Indiana from Friday night through Saturday. Multiple models currently have the showers and possible thunderstorms moving off to the east by mid to late Saturday morning but another model is slower to move the precip out. While exact timing is not quite narrowed down, there is a consensus of minimal rainfall amounts expected with this system. Outside of the rain, Saturday will also be breezy with gusts up to 35 mph possible. A surface high is then expected to progress just to the south of the forecast area allowing for quiet weather Sunday and the start of a warming trend for the new week. Models then vary and become noisy with their solutions for next week leading to less confidence in at least the precipitation forecast. There is general agreement in a troughing system moving in with overall westerly to southwesterly upper flow ahead of it but timing and strength of the trough is unclear at this time. Going to keep with slight to chance PoPs over several days that guidance provided. && .AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)... Issued at 144 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024 Impacts: - Severe weather threat shifting south of Central Indiana - Expect showers and sub-severe storms pushing in this evening - Potential for MVFR cigs late tonight Discussion: As with a lot of large severe weather events, things can change rapidly depending on where boundaries set up and other smaller mesoscale details. Latest indications are that the main severe weather threat will be south of Central Indiana TAF sites this evening and tonight. With that said, latest satellite and radar imagery show a cluster of storms in Missouri and Southern Illinois along a warm front. Latest guidance does indicate this warm front remaining south of the TAF sites, keeping the main severe weather threat south. However, sub- severe storms and showers are still possible later this evening at KHUF and KBMG. Lower confidence exists if KIND will even see lightning with showers later on this evening. Currently, timing for any convection in the area looks to be around 23z to 05z, with lingering isolated showers and MVFR cigs after that. Winds have been light and variable much of the day remaining under 7 kts at most sites. As the main low pressure pushes near the region tonight, expect winds to become southerly at all locations, then becoming west-southwest during the day tomorrow increasing to 10-15 kts. Additional chances for showers and thunderstorms are possible tomorrow morning into tomorrow afternoon; however confidence remains low on coverage of convection and exact timing. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch until 3 AM EDT Thursday for INZ056-064-065-071-072. && $$ SHORT TERM...CM LONG TERM...KF AVIATION...CM ####018006042#### FXUS61 KLWX 081909 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 309 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A backdoor cold front will move into northern areas tonight before stalling on Thursday. A second stronger cold front will move across the area Thursday night. A third cold front will move across the area early on Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Strengthening westerly flow has resulted in significant drying today with sfc dewpoints having fallen from 66F this morning to 59F this past hour. Latest trends suggest that any convection would develop over extreme southern areas, more likely in Wakefied's area late this afternoon or early in the evening. It should remain quiet through midnight tonight. Overnight, strengthening warm air and moisture advection will lead to showers and possible thunderstorms across western areas spreading northeast toward daybreak. The risk of severe wx appears zero through 12Z Thursday. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Showers and perhaps thunderstorms should be ongoing Thu morning driven by warm air and moisture advection atop a frontal zone. Additional showers and thunderstorms are anticipated during the afternoon and early evening driven by strengthening low-level convergence and height falls from approaching upper level trough from the NW. The severe risk for Thu has shifted considerably south from previous days and will likely be tied to where backdoor front is fcst to stall tomorrow or roughly I-64 corridor. All modes of severe wx appear possible, but the areal coverage should be confined to areas around Charlottesville and south of Fredericksburg. More showers appear likely Friday as upper trough crosses the area. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Longwave troughing will persist over the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast states through the weekend before pushing offshore early next week. Saturday will start out dry in the wake of a departing shortwave trough pushing offshore. Skies should trend mostly sunny to mostly cloudy as the day progresses with the bulk of the cloud cover especially for the VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the weekend at all terminals. front half of the day confined to areas along and west of the Blue Ridge. As one shortwave trough departs, another will follow from the Ohio River Valley late Saturday night and into the day Sunday. Cloud cover will increase from west to east across the forecast area late Saturday afternoon and into Sunday. Precipitation chances will also increase as well with large scale ascent overspreading the region. The bulk of any shower or thunderstorm activity Saturday will mainly be confined along and west of the Blue Ridge during the morning and afternoon hours. This activity will spread eastward with time late Saturday into Sunday. Coverage will remain scattered across the area both days with more numerous to widespread activity Saturday night into Sunday as the upper trough axis passes overhead. With the added cloud cover and west to northwesterly flow expect weekend high temperatures in the upper 60s and low 70s. Low temperatures will fall back into the upper 40s and low to mid 50s. Rain chances finally decrease Monday as upper level troughing progresses east of the region. High pressure will briefly build over the region from the south before shifting offshore midweek. With the high shifting offshore Tuesday expect diurnal chances for showers and thunderstorms to return to the region. High temperatures Monday will reach into the low to mid 70s with mid to upper 70s expected on both Tuesday and Wednesday. Lows will remain in the upper 40s and low to mid 50s. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... MVFR cigs expected Thu with off and on showers. Severe threat should be limited to areas around Charlottesville. More showers Fri with low cigs again. Passing showers and perhaps a thunderstorm could lead to sub- VFR reductions mainly during the afternoon and evening hours each day as multiple shortwave troughs pivot through. West to southwest winds are expected Saturday before switching to the northwest Sunday. Speeds will sit between 5 to 15 kts with gusts 10 to 20 kts at times. VFR conditions continue Monday and Tuesday as brief high pressure sits overhead. && .MARINE... Possible SCA conditions all weekend, but winds and waves could be higher near thunderstorms especially across southern waters. Low end SCA level winds in west to southwest flow are expected Saturday before turning toward the northwest Sunday. SCA level winds will continue into Monday especially over the open waters of the bay and tidal Potomac under southeasterly flow. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Westerly winds should allow water levels to continue to decrease this afternoon and evening. Southerly winds late tonight into Thursday morning, will allow for the potential of additional minor flooding at most sensitive locations (i.e Annapolis, Straits Point, and DC Waterfront). Water levels will drop again late Thursday morning into Thursday evening as the flow turns to the west and eventually north/northeasterly direction. Additional minor flooding is possible at these same locations late Thursday night into early Friday morning as southwest flow returns. It's not until Sunday is when water levels should drop off with offshore northwest flow. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ530>532-535-536-538>540. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LFR NEAR TERM...LFR SHORT TERM...LFR LONG TERM...EST AVIATION...LFR/EST MARINE...LFR/EST