####018003473#### FXUS64 KLZK 110505 AAA AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Little Rock AR 1105 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1132 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 - Gusty NW winds will be seen behind a cold front as it moves across the state today. - Near to above normal temperatures will be seen through Friday along with dry conditions. - A strong cold front will usher in much colder temperatures from Saturday to Sunday. - Cold air will linger for a few days before increasing by Tue/Wed next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1132 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 Sfc pressure gradient has continued to increase across the area as a strong sfc cyclone moves east toward the Great Lakes while ridging remains across the SE US. This has provided an increase in SW winds across the state late Tuesday into the overnight hours. As the sfc low continues to track to the east a trailing cold front will move across Arkansas from NW to SE today. In its wake, winds will switch out of the NW and will increase to 15-20 mph with gusts around 30 mph. The strongest winds associated with this are expected across the northern half of the state during the morning hours Wednesday. This front will provide little in the way of cold air Wednesday but will help temperatures fall to near freezing Wednesday night. The mid-level flow aloft will remain out of the NW through the end of the work week, but low level flow will be out of the SW. This will provide warmer temperatures Thu-Fri. Changes will take place this weekend, as another cold front will usher in a much colder airmass to the state. The cold air may not make it into the state until Saturday night. Behind the front, sfc ridging will overspread the state by Sunday and linger through Monday. But, this round of cold air isn't expected to stick around very long as sfc ridging shifts east and the H500 NW flow moves northeast away from the region. This will lead to increasing temperatures through the middle of next week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1103 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 VFR conditions are expected to persist through the period. Mid to high level clouds will continue to stream in from the NW but will eventually decrease in coverage across the state. Winds overnight are expected to remain light/variable but will increase out of the S/SW Thursday morning to around 7-12 kts across the area with some higher gusts possible. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 59 32 53 41 / 0 0 0 0 Camden AR 66 31 57 39 / 0 0 0 0 Harrison AR 52 31 57 43 / 0 0 0 0 Hot Springs AR 62 33 55 40 / 0 0 0 0 Little Rock AR 63 34 55 41 / 0 0 0 0 Monticello AR 65 34 56 43 / 0 0 0 0 Mount Ida AR 64 33 58 42 / 0 0 0 0 Mountain Home AR 53 30 55 40 / 0 0 0 0 Newport AR 60 33 52 40 / 0 0 0 0 Pine Bluff AR 64 32 56 40 / 0 0 0 0 Russellville AR 63 33 59 39 / 0 0 0 0 Searcy AR 61 31 53 37 / 0 0 0 0 Stuttgart AR 63 33 53 40 / 0 0 0 0 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...67 AVIATION...67 ####018006972#### FXUS63 KGLD 110506 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 1006 PM MST Wed Dec 10 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry conditions continue. - Warm temperatures return for one day only! Record highs possible Thursday. - Breezy conditions expected Thursday afternoon, mainly in near the Tri-State border. - Fog and freezing fog possible Friday/Saturday morning, but confidence is low to moderate. - Mild temperatures in the 50s to 60s return next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 111 PM MST Wed Dec 10 2025 Today, an 850 mb high pressure system is moving across the southern CONUS. This is extending a ridge over the CWA, leading to weaker winds throughout most of the day Wednesday. This has also helped clear out the sky, allowing temperatures to warm to around 50. Around 21-00Z this evening, the first impacts of our next shortwave trough will start pushing into the western CWA. Surface pressure rises look to be around 0.5-1 mb per hour, leading to winds briefly picking up. We could see a few gusts around 25-30 kts in eastern Colorado before the sunsets. Like most days, once the sun sets, the nocturnal inversion will set in and winds will weaken quickly. This evening into the night, the bulk of our next shortwave trough will push the ridge out of the area to the east. Moisture is lacking, so PoPs are effectively 0. Temperatures are forecast to cool into the mid 30s tonight. However, if the winds remain stronger throughout the night, the boundary layer will remain mixed and lows will only cool into the upper 30s to near 40. Thursday morning, another weak ridge will briefly move in from the southwest and soon be replaced with zonal flow from the Rockies. Mild WAA, clearing skies, and downsloping flow will allow temperatures to warm into the upper 60s to low 70s Thursday. We are looking at some record high temperatures. For more information, see the climate section below. These temperatures and no additional moisture will push minimum RH values down to near 20% in eastern Colorado. Winds are a bit of a concern, mainly in Yuma county. With such warm temperatures expected, winds are forecast to mix very well, allowing northwesterly gusts of ~30 kts to mix down. There is a 40-50% chance gusts around 40-45 kts will occur in northern Yuma county. With the ~30 kts gusts, there's a 15% chance of blowing dust reducing visibility under a mile. If the stronger winds pan out, the potential for blowing dust increases to around 75%. Main timing for the winds and any associated impacts will be 18-23Z. Sunset will once again bring in an inversion, which will weaken the winds quickly. Temperatures overnight will cool to around 30 across the area, with the northwestern CWA being the coolest, near 28 degrees. By Friday morning, there is a 15-25% chance of patchy fog/freezing fog in the northeastern CWA. We're expecting a high pressure system to move in from the west and bring in cooler temperatures. If the high takes a slightly northern path, more northeasterly flow will occur. This will lead to stronger cooling and likely saturating, leading to fog. If the high takes a slightly southern path, more northern flow will occur and fog will likely not form. During the day Friday, the high will move across the CWA. This will once again help the sky remain mostly clear and allow temperatures to warm into the 40s and low 50s. Depending on how quickly the high moves over the CWA, temperatures could flex about 5 degrees either way. A slower high would keep temperatures cooler as the CAA would persist longer into the day. A faster high could bring in slightly warmer southerly flow during the midday. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1153 AM MST Wed Dec 10 2025 Friday night and into Saturday morning, the area is forecast to be under northwest flow aloft with winds from the southeast near the surface. This is forecast to keep some low level moisture over the area. With temperatures forecast to lower into the 20s and 30s due to the cold air mass in place, freezing fog and drizzle remains a concern. The saving grace is that low pressure is forecast to develop along the Front Range and may shift winds to be more south/southwesterly and keep the moisture out of the area. So we have nothing in the forecast for now, but do be cautious if you are traveling late Friday and into early Saturday. For the rest of the weekend, an upper trough is forecast to dig into the Plains and the Ohio River Valley. The ensemble means and deterministic guidance favors the trough moving more into the Eastern Plains, which would bring the cooler air mass through the far eastern portions of the area. This could cause these areas to see highs in the 30s, while the rest of the area to the west is in the 40s and 50s. However, ensemble spreads still show the possibility of a the trough digging further west and south. In this case, the entire area would see highs in the 30s and maybe low 40s. Precipitation chances are low due to an overall lack of saturation. However, fog and drizzle chances could linger if the surface low along the Front Range persists and keeps the southeasterly flow. Lows are forecast to be in the teens and 20s. Monday through Wednesday are forecast to be a bit warmer as upper ridging or split flow are forecast for the area. Within that, some small waves may allow for some weak fronts to move through and increase winds a bit. Gusts around 20-30 mph are possible, but nothing hazardous at this time. Will need to watch for some briefly critical fire weather conditions as drier air is forecast to take hold of the area along with warmer temperatures in the 50s and 60s. A few 70s may be possible on Tuesday depending on how the smaller disturbances move through. With the drier air, precipitation is unlikely. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1005 PM MST Wed Dec 10 2025 VFR expected to prevail at both KGLD and KMCK through the TAF period. Surface winds will be breezy at times with occasional high clouds. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 115 PM MST Wed Dec 10 2025 Thursday, we will be getting close to setting some high temperature records across the area. Location Old Record Year Forecast High Hill City, KS 72 1939 70 McCook, NE 66 2004 67 Burlington, CO 70 2004 69 Goodland, KS 77 1939 70 && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CA LONG TERM...KAK AVIATION...024 CLIMATE...CA ####018007663#### FXUS63 KMPX 110507 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 1107 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Light snow ends in eastern MN/western WI this evening. Minor accumulations possible until it departs. - Another snow-bearing system arrives late morning tomorrow in SW MN, spreads east into the afternoon/evening. - Bitter cold this weekend, coldest Sunday morning with wind chills dropping from -30 to -35F. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 215 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 We continue to see light snow falling across portions of eastern Minnesota into western Wisconsin this afternoon as some lingering upper level forcing on top of the low level stratus is enough to squeeze some flakes out of a shallow DGZ. This activity is expected to taper off into the evening with the strongest echoes pushing southeast towards Rochester over the next few hours, following the track of the lingering upper level forcing. Additional accumulations have ranged from around 0.5 to 1 inch at the most in the stronger bands, with a few tenths of an inch for those who just saw some nuisance lighter snow. The forcing will continue to weaken overnight as the upper level occluded low spinning over the northern Great Lakes will begin to progress eastwards as upper level flow tilts more westerly over the northern CONUS ahead of our next incoming system. Speaking of which, yet another chance for snow will arrive late Thursday morning in western MN with a significant amount of model disparity leading to uncertainty even as we are within 24 hours of the start of precipitation for the area. The blended NBM guidance shows a large footprint of QPF and snow across the southern half of the MPX CWA due to the influence of the longer range CAM guidance taking the surface low much farther northeast than the deterministic synoptic guidance, which is in turn farther east than the ensemble/AIFS guidance which has been the overall winner as far as location of systems goes over our last few systems. The AIFS ensemble mean keeps the low pressure center over western Nebraska, compared to the 12z HRRR which brings it to SW MN resulting in almost a 200 mile difference in the position of the surface low. This will obviously have an extremely large impact on the forecast not only in how much QPF there is, but also precipitation types as the 540 line looks to cross through the surface system resulting in the potential for multiple wintry p-types. If the trend we have experienced over the last few events continues, we would expect the high resolution and synoptic guidance to trend towards the AIFS over the next few model runs, which would push the highest QPF and potential for mixed p-types towards our neighboring offices to the east including FSD/ABR. As such, our forecast reflects our latest thinking in that the western solution should be favored, resulting in lower QPF and therefore snow amounts across the area. This would also limit our p-types to only snow, keeping the potential for a wintry mix including freezing rain to our west and south. Snow amounts ranging from around 1-2 inches in southwestern MN along the Minnesota River and along I-90 would decrease to around 0.5 to 1 inch in Mankato, further decreasing to under 0.5 inches for the rest of the area. A secondary upper level trough moving through Manitoba could also force an area of CVA, resulting in a few light snow showers near sunrise Friday, favoring along and north of I-94 with a few tenths of an inch of additional accumulation possible. Behind the last of the light snow on Friday morning, we look to dry out and cool off significantly as an arctic high drops down bringing the coldest air of the season over the weekend, with the overall coldest period from Saturday night through Sunday morning. The aforementioned Manitoba upper level system looks to settle over the northern Great Lakes, with stacked northwesterly flow across the entire troposphere and an influx of arctic air including in the lower levels on Saturday. High temperatures may struggle to stay above zero throughout the day as the cold air moves in with 850mb temps of -20 to -25C by 00z Saturday evening. The cold air and subsidence will drop to the surface with temperatures as cold as -15 to -20F early Sunday, with enough surface wind to force wind chills as cold as -30 to -35F. We may need some cold headlines for Sunday in particular, but will hold off for now as we still have a few days before it arrives and the forecast may fluctuate just a little bit. The cold air is locked in however so headline or not, prepare for a cold few nights over the weekend! There are some bright lights at the end of the cold tunnel, as Monday looks to see a significant resurgence of warmer air into the region in the lower levels, with 850mb temps surging above freezing by 15-18z as upper level flow shifts more westerly kicking the colder arctic air to the east. This warmer trend continues next week with our low level temperatures remaining above freezing such that high temperatures beginning Tuesday through the week should be near or even above freezing, resulting in some minor snow melt throughout the week. Additional precipitation also looks absent with a lack of forcing, with our next chance for some light precipitation arriving towards the very end of the period on Thursday meaning low confidence for now. Ensemble guidance showcases the warmup nicely, although most trend the model mean back towards our normal mid to upper 20s highs in the metro with lows in the teens by late week and the weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1036 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 Some isolated flurries around southern MN at initialization will diminish shortly into the early morning hours. The cloud shield over mainly eastern MN into western WI will slowly continue to erode eastward through the overnight hours, resulting in VFR conditions for AXN-RWF, possibly STC-MKT, while MSP and the WI TAF sites look to remain within MVFR ceilings through at least sunrise. Another swath of snow looks to arrive late morning in southwestern MN and progress ESE, impacting mainly RWF-MKT with snow accumulation of around 1 inch. Going north and east from there, potential accumulations drop off to around a trace. Any and all snowfall tomorrow looks diminish by late evening with MVFR, possibly IFR, ceilings remaining in place Thursday evening into Friday morning. NW winds early this morning will go light/variable then pick up from the SE from sunrise onward with speeds 10kts or less. KMSP...Kept the TAF fairly simple as the MVFR cloud shield is not expected to move away from MSP airspace. NW winds at initialization will go light/variable before sunrise then pick up from the SE at 5-10kts late morning through the rest of the TAF period. Still a chance of some snow showers/light snow for the afternoon-evening push, but any accumulations will be very light, a trace to a couple tenths of an inch. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ FRI...MVFR/SN early. VFR late. Wind NW 10-15G20 kts. SAT...VFR. Wind NW 10G20kts. SUN...VFR. Wind W early, bcmg S 5-10kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...TDH AVIATION...JPC