####018010532#### FXUS64 KEPZ 230915 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 315 AM MDT Tue Apr 23 2024 ...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 311 AM MDT Tue Apr 23 2024 Quiet weather conditions with warming temperatures and breezy winds can be expected today and Wednesday. Active weather returns to the Borderland as a series of storm systems move across the region Thursday through Saturday. Windy conditions, patchy blowing, and critical fire weather conditions can be expected. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 311 AM MDT Tue Apr 23 2024 Overall, no changes from the previous forecast packages with quiet and warm weather expected for today and Wednesday. Active weather pattern returns for the second half of the work week and into the weekend. ...Today and Wednesday... Upper level ridging will build in over the region for the short term period. This will result in warm temperatures today and Wednesday. Temperatures will remain above average by a good 5-10 degrees each afternoon with high temperatures topping out in the low 90s for the El Paso and Las Cruces areas with middle to upper 80s elsewhere across the desert lowlands. Predominately light southwesterly flow aloft and a rather relaxed pressure gradient at the surface will result in light to low-end breezes today and Wednesday. Generally terrain driven and drainage regime-like flows during the morning and evening hours, with winds becoming west/southwesterly through the late morning and afternoon hours at 10-20 mph. As mentioned above, there really won't be any change on Wednesday, other than a degree or two drop in afternoon highs and a slight uptick in winds. ...Thursday... A relatively active pattern will set up across the Desert Southwest, really beginning on Thursday. The next upper level system will come onshore across Southern California late Wednesday night and early Thursday morning. This will be the first in a series of upper level troughs that will approach and move across the region. Ahead of the first system, flow aloft will quickly become southwest with a 60-80 knot 500mb jet overspreading southwest New Mexico by the morning hours on Thursday. This will ultimately lead to the trough becoming negatively tilted over the Southwest/Four Corners vicinity. With the presence of ample upper level winds, increasing upper level cyclonic flow, and diffluence, the stage will be set for a fairly decent wind event on Thursday across the Borderland. Dropping down to the surface, the increasing upper level dynamics will promote lee-side surface cyclogenesis over southeast Colorado. Ensemble guidance and their respected suites continue to show fairly good agreement that a sub-996mb low will develop with it's associated surface trough extending across New Mexico. Decent confidence in the expected surface pressure analysis, coupled with deep mixing during peak heating, will lead to gusty winds at the surface. As of now, there's medium to high confidence that wind headlines will be needed (likely Wind Advisory for most of the area, outside of the high terrain). NBM 75th percentile winds (has been doing a decent job with previous wind storms) paints most of the forecast area with 45-55 mph wind gusts on Thursday. This coupled with wind trajectories out of the WSW/SW, will lead to a favorable setup for blowing dust across the desert lowlands. The storm system's trough axis will swing across the forecast area during the evening hours, with it's associated Pacific front expected to move through between 4-10 PM with winds becoming W/WNW along and behind frontal passage. ...Friday and Saturday... Heading into Friday, flow aloft will remain under the influence of the long wave trough across western half of CONUS with a west to east 50-60 knot 500mb jet overhead. Lee-side low formation will take place over southeast Colorado during the Friday afternoon/evening timeframe. Although not as prominent as Thursday's surface low, it will still promote breezy to windy conditions across the area. Wind speeds of 20-30 mph with gusts to 40 mph can be expected on Friday. Trajectories look to be more westerly, however, blowing dust will still be possible. On Saturday, the second and final upper level trough will swing across the Four Corners and Central Rockies regions. This system looks to pack a punch as well. Once again, upper level ingredients coupled with a 65-75 knot 500mb jet will lead to gusty winds. At the surface, strengthening cyclogenesis throughout the afternoon hours will lead to surface troughing across New Mexico. Expect winds of 25 -35 mph with gusts of 40-50 mph. Once again, blowing dust will be a concern, especially for areas closest to the International Border. This system will likely be accompanied by higher moisture values. However, with it's track further north across Colorado, confidence is low in portions of the area receiving any precipitation. ...Sunday through Early Next Week... Quiet weather will return to the region as the upper level flow regime becomes zonal. Temperatures will respond, increasing back above the seasonal average, with light breezes expected during that timeframe. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1120 PM MDT Mon Apr 22 2024 VFR conditions expected with SKC-SCT250. KELP may see a few mid level clouds at 10-12 KFT overnight. Winds will be light overnight and through the morning hours at speeds less than 8 knots. Direction of the light winds will be variable. Winds will increase above 10 knots by late Tuesday morning (after 16Z) and will be more from the southwest. Wind gusts up to 20-22 knots will be possible by mid afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 311 AM MDT Tue Apr 23 2024 Fire Weather conditions will be ELEVATED to LOW-END CRITICAL today and Wednesday. Upper level ridging will return to the region with temperatures becoming 5-10 degrees above average, with corresponding Min RH values in the single digits across the desert lowlands and mountain foothills/valleys, 10-17 percent Min RHs for the highest terrain. Predominately light southwesterly flow aloft and a rather relaxed pressure gradient at the surface will result in light to low- end breezes today and Wednesday. Generally terrain driven and drainage regime-like flows during the morning and evening hours, with winds becoming west/southwesterly through the late morning and afternoon hours at 10-20 mph. Thursday through Saturday timeframe will become more active in terms of fire weather conditions. CRITICAL to potentially EXTREME (desert lowlands) fire weather conditions. Given the setup and expected meteorological conditions, a Fire Weather Watch has been issued for all fire weather zones across the area for Thursday. Critically low RH values and gusty to strong southwest winds can be expected during the late morning hours, lasting through the evening timeframe. As fuels continue to cure and dry out, especially below ~8000 to 8500 feet, any fires that develop will spread rapidly under these conditions. Areas within the highest terrain, where fuels are still relatively moist, the expected meteorological conditions will still support Critical Fire Weather. Also worth noting, a minor wind shift can be expected during the late afternoon to evening timeframe as a Pacific front moves across the region. Exact timing on frontal passage still needs to be ironed out, but sometime during the late afternoon to evening from west to east. Critically low Min RH values and breezy to windy conditions will still be present on Saturday and Sunday with ELEVATED to CRITICAL Fire Weather Conditions expected. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 91 62 89 64 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 85 57 84 57 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 91 57 88 60 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 87 53 85 58 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 64 44 63 45 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 88 55 84 57 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 78 51 76 51 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 88 52 86 55 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 86 52 84 53 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 88 61 87 63 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 90 51 90 52 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 91 55 91 56 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 82 56 81 58 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 90 57 89 60 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 86 55 86 59 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 88 63 86 63 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 87 53 84 56 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 89 52 87 58 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 88 57 87 62 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 86 54 84 57 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 77 48 77 50 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 75 47 74 50 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 74 46 73 46 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 80 46 76 50 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 85 51 83 54 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 86 49 84 55 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 78 46 76 47 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 82 48 80 48 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 85 52 81 51 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 80 51 77 49 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 81 52 79 52 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 86 52 84 55 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 86 54 85 57 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 85 52 84 55 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 79 52 78 52 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening for TXZ055-056. NM...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening for NMZ110>113. && $$ FORECASTER...38-Rogers