####018003996#### FXUS64 KHUN 110515 AAA AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Huntsville AL 1215 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... (Rest of tonight) Issued at 911 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Tranquil weather across the Tennessee Valley tonight as high pressure settles into the region. Northerly flow has advected in a cooler and drier air mass -- and with the clear conditions forecast it will be a good night for radiational cooling. The end result will be a very comfortable night with low humidity as lows drop back into the low to mid 50s. The clear sky may offer a good opportunity for stargazing -- and perhaps if you're lucky a brief glimpse of the aurora. && .SHORT TERM... (Saturday through Sunday) Issued at 215 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Not too much to write about this weekend as weak ridging aloft builds in this weekend with high pressure in place at the surface. Skies remain mostly clear through the weekend with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s and overnight lows in the 50s to low 60s. Saturday will be breezy with west winds near 10-15 mph but the center of the surface high will keep winds much lighter and more variable on Sunday. Patchy fog will again be possible late Saturday night into early Sunday morning, but most areas should stay clear. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Thursday) Issued at 340 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 An unsettled and generally wet pattern is in the forecast for the new work week. At the start of the period, surface high pressure over the eastern CONUS will move towards the SE coast by Monday morning. While this occurs, a system that should bring convection over the southern Great Plains will rapidly advance to the NE under a subtropical flow from the SW/northern Mexico. This next system will bring an increase in clouds and return chances of showers beginning before daybreak for parts of NW to north central Alabama, then overspreading the rest of the area during the course of Mon morning. Before showers return, a southern flow and higher heights should make for a slightly milder Sunday night with lows in the mid/upper 50s. More clouds and higher rain chances will make for a cooler start to the work week, with highs Mon in the mid 70s. Have returned isolated to scattered chances of thunderstorms Mon afternoon and evening. A feed of moisture from the south will continue into Tuesday evening, with scattered to numerous showers, and isolated to scattered thunderstorms. Overall Thunderstorm intensity at this time looks to be general, with possible gusty winds, heavy downpours and sudden lightning strikes. Instances of heavier precipitation on our rather wet soils could run off, bringing a risk of ponding of water and/or flash flooding. Too many variations in model output further out precludes trying to pick the wettest day, and where it will occur. Rain chances will continue for the mid and latter half of the week as another system moves in from the west. Despite more clouds than sun and daily shower/thunderstorm chances, a moderation in the airmass should help daily high temperatures return into the lower 80s. Lows for the mid/latter half of the week should range in the 60s. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1215 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024 VFR conditions to prevail through Saturday night. Clear skies will also continue, but a few upper level clouds may stream overhead by this afternoon and evening. Winds will be light and variable overnight, then become west/northwesterly at around 10 knots this afternoon. Expecting winds to then quickly diminish through the evening to be around 5 knots or less. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...AMP SHORT TERM....30 LONG TERM....RSB AVIATION...26 ####018004149#### FXUS66 KPDT 110515 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 1020 PM PDT Fri May 10 2024 Updated Aviation Discussion .SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday...Clear skies prevail over the region as an upper-level ridge remains centered just off the coast of Oregon. This ridge will allow temps to climb well above average - as much as 20 degrees in some areas - with highs potentially eclipsing the 90s over the weekend across the lower Basin and Gorge. This ridge will flatten out by Sunday as a shortwave arrives and brings gusty winds to the forecast area. This system has little in the way of moisture, so outside of a weak orographic shower over the Cascade crests, expecting a dry forecast for the period. Gap flows are where we expect the strongest winds Sunday afternoon, namely the Gorge, Oregon Basin, Kittitas Valley, and Simcoe Highlands. NBM probabilistic guidance has a low chance (30-40%) of winds reaching advisory criteria, so expecting more of a typical springtime breezy day rather than anything truly significant. Rivers and streams will continue to see rises as mountain snowmelt accelerates under anomalously warm temps. Naches still looks to be the only river that will reach bankfull, however should high pressure build back in next week, more prolonged river rises could occur. The long term period is very much in the air, however, so enjoy the pleasant weather while it lasts! Evans/74 .LONG TERM...Monday through Friday...Models in good agreement through Tuesday, but begin to diverge significantly on their evolution of an upper level ridge over the eastern Pacific Ocean. EOFs show a variance of 53+% from Wednesday onward with the WPC clusters shifting between a dominant ridge and a weak trough or zonal flow. The ensembles show a similar pattern where GFS wants to develop an upper level ridge over the eastern Pacific Ocean and moving it inland but weakening it by Friday while the ECMWF retrogrades the upper ridge allowing for a more troughy pattern over the Pacific Northwest. The deterministic models paint a similar picture with the GFS showing a strong ridge developing over the eastern Pacific Ocean and moving inland over the weekend while the ECMWF mimics its ensemble solution. These differences from Wednesday onward will have significant impacts on temperatures and precipitation chances. If the GFS solution panes out, it will be hot and dry with daytime highs approaching 15-20 degrees above normal by the weekend. If the ECMWF has the correct solution, it will be near to below normal with periods of rain. As a result, there is very low confidence (80-90%) in which solution will pain out so the best solution is to keep close to NBM which is trending warmer, but not as warm as the GFS. NBM is drier too which presently is the way to go until models start settling in on a solution. With a couple of shortwave troughs moving through the area Monday into Monday night, we can expected breezy to windy conditions over the Columbia Basin, especially through the Gorge and the Kittitas Valley. There may be some afternoon/evening showers over the mountains too, especially Northeast Oregon. Earle/81 && .AVIATION...06Z TAFs...Clear skies and light terrain driven winds for most of the terminal airports for the next 24 hours. DLS will have gusts to around 20 kts in the afternoon. Wister/85 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... PDT 51 83 54 83 / 0 0 0 0 ALW 55 86 60 85 / 0 0 0 0 PSC 55 90 58 90 / 0 0 0 0 YKM 52 89 52 88 / 0 0 0 0 HRI 53 89 58 87 / 0 0 0 0 ELN 53 86 54 84 / 0 0 0 0 RDM 46 83 47 80 / 0 0 0 0 LGD 49 80 50 81 / 0 0 0 0 GCD 48 80 49 81 / 0 0 0 0 DLS 57 89 57 84 / 0 0 0 0 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...74 LONG TERM....81 AVIATION...85 ####018005403#### FXUS64 KEWX 110519 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 1219 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 148 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Morning mid-level clouds were indicative of some unplanned shower and storm activity in our eastern and southern counties and that has come to fruition with some scattered activity continuing in the east. Northeast winds prevail at the surface with speeds around 10 to 20 mph with some slightly higher gusts. Southwest flow aloft continues across the region and with some upslope flow on the higher terrain west of the Rio Grande could induce some scattered showers and storms in Mexico late this afternoon. Some of this activity could push east into our Rio Grande counties. The HRRR has backed off this scenario and lowered PoPs slightly as a result. SPC has also removed the western counties from the marginal risk as well. Skies will range from partly to mostly cloudy tonight with lows in the middle 60s to lower 70s. For tomorrow, southerly flow returns with weak ascent which may lead to isolated showers and perhaps a thunderstorm for the western two- thirds of the area. Highs will be cooler in the 80s for most locations. Rain chances will increase into Saturday night and early Sunday morning as the main support from the approaching shortwave arrives to the area. Rain chances will be in the 20-50 percent range. Some elevated rain amounts may be possible with amounts generally less than 3/4 of an inch. Instability amounts will remain low and not expecting widespread strong storms outside of a small chance for Val Verde County where instability is slightly higher. Lows tomorrow night will be back in the in the middle 60s to lower 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Friday) Issued at 148 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 An active spring pattern continues with a series of upper level systems pivoting from the Desert Southwest through the Central Plains in the coming week. Additionally, rising humidity and returning above average warmth will be expected with prevailing south to southeasterly winds becoming more common within the forecast. The first period for good rain and storm chances over South-Central Texas is expected Sunday into Sunday night with forcing from the first upper level low to the north. Additional shower and storm activity is then possible Monday afternoon as a front slides across the region. Tuesday should be a reprieve in between systems with what looks like a rain free forecast and slightly lower humidity levels. Moisture levels return and the increase in forcing ahead of the next upper level system should bring increasing rain and storm chances from Wednesday through Thursday. A cold front then looks to clear out the rain/storm chances into Friday. With pooling instability and supportive wind shear profiles over South-Central Texas through much of the period, the times when convection does develop, it could become organized. Any storm activity could also produce locally heavy rainfall. Pending on precedent conditions and locality, some instances of flooding is possible. Details, such as placement and timing of convection, become more clear into and through the short term period with assessment of the capping inversion, and mesoscale features or boundaries. Overall, the probability for more than 1 inch of rainfall through the long term are currently more than 50 to 60 percent across the northern and eastern half of the CWA. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1216 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024 VFR conditions continue through much of the day at I-35 sites, but lower to MVFR in the west, including DRT, around 12Z this morning. A few showers may be possible at DRT in the morning with MVFR conditions likely to continue most the day at this location. These MVFR ceilings spread east across the area during the evening hours, eventually lowering to IFR and locally LIFR around 06Z Sunday. A few showers are possible at I-35 sites this afternoon, although better chances for showers or thunderstorms will be after 00Z at all sites. Exact timing for any potential precipitation is still hard to pinpoint and only PROB30 groups have been added at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 85 68 81 73 / 10 40 70 30 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 83 67 81 72 / 10 40 70 40 New Braunfels Muni Airport 85 68 85 73 / 10 40 60 30 Burnet Muni Airport 81 66 78 71 / 20 40 70 30 Del Rio Intl Airport 88 73 92 74 / 20 40 20 20 Georgetown Muni Airport 82 66 79 71 / 10 40 80 30 Hondo Muni Airport 84 68 87 73 / 20 40 40 30 San Marcos Muni Airport 84 67 83 72 / 10 40 70 30 La Grange - Fayette Regional 84 70 84 74 / 10 30 80 40 San Antonio Intl Airport 84 69 86 74 / 10 40 50 30 Stinson Muni Airport 84 70 86 75 / 10 40 50 30 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Short-Term...29 Long-Term...Brady Aviation...27