####018013641#### FXUS63 KLMK 110526 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 1226 AM EST Thu Dec 11 2025 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... * Lingering flurries and snow showers tonight may lead to patchy slick spots Thursday morning. * A more significant wintry system is possible Thursday night into Friday morning, with chances for greater than 1" of snow continuing to increase across north central KY and southern IN. Travel impacts are likely along and north of the I-64 corridor Friday morning. * Saturday night into Sunday morning, another system will bring snowfall to similar areas as Thursday night. Amount of snowfall is still uncertain, but chances of around 1 inch of snow is high. * Very cold airmass will move into the region on Sunday through Monday, as lows will be in the single digits and highs on Sunday in the teens and low 20s. * Temperatures will steadily warm Monday afternoon through mid next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 943 PM EST Wed Dec 10 2025 The upper level trough axis shifts east of the area tonight. Cold NW flow continues, with moisture confined to the lowest 150-200 mb of the atmosphere. The top of the moist layer just reaches into the bottom part of the dendritic growth zone. LVX radar shows very light, isolated returns as of this writing. Isolated, brief light snow and flurries will be possible late tonight. However, the limited moisture depth will keep snow production to a minimum. Temperatures have gradually fallen into the low to mid 30s. NW winds remain rather breezy, with gusts of 20-25 mph. Sfc winds will gradually diminish early Thu morning as the pressure gradient relaxes, and temperatures will settle into the mid/upper 20s. A few slick spots will be possible overnight and early Thu as temps dip into the 20s. After a break in the action on Thursday, our well-advertised and more significant wintry system looks on track for Thursday night. An area of low pressure is forecast to drop southeast into the Lower OH Valley, with an impactful snow band setting up to the northeast of the low. Impactful snow accumulations are most likely across southern Indiana, portions of north-central Kentucky, and the Bluegrass Region. Snow accumulation of 1-4" looks possible northeast of a line from French Lick to Richmond, with the highest amounts concentrated from Madison IN southeast through the northern Bluegrass. Small north-south jogs of the sfc low and snow band remain possible, which could have a big impact on snow accumulation and impacts in many communities. For example, a very sharp cutoff in snow is expected along the southwestern flank of this system. For that reason, and after collaboration with neighboring NWS offices, a Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for the highest confidence areas most likely to see at least 1-2+ inches of snow. The Winter Weather Advisory includes Salem IN southeast through Lexington KY, and areas to the northeast. Some wintry impacts are certainly possible immediately to the southwest of the current advisory, and a slight expansion is possible in future updates if forecast confidence increases in impactful accumulations. The Winter Weather Advisory is valid 7 PM Thursday through 10 AM EST Friday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 400 PM EST Wed Dec 10 2025 This Afternoon through Tonight... A surface cold front is pushing across central KY at this hour, and should clear the area later this afternoon. Along the front, scattered rain showers mixed with ice pellets have developed, with some of the heavier showers producing isolated 40-50 mph wind gusts. Behind the front, llvl cold advection is spreading across southern IN, with temperatures falling from the mid 40s into the upper 30s over the past few hours. Breezy W/NW winds are also present outside of showers, with sustained winds of 10-20 mph and gusts of 25-35 mph continuing this afternoon before settling down this evening. Later this afternoon into this evening, low-level lapse rates should steepen with saturation lingering from the sfc to around 800 mb. As temperatures continue to cool this evening, this should allow saturation to reach to around -10C, which should be just sufficient for some isolated to scattered development of snow showers. While coverage of flurries and snow showers should be greatest east of I- 65, most if not all of the CWA has a chance to see a brief snow burst this evening into tonight which could drop a quick dusting to a few tenths of an inch of snow. There may also be enhancement/greater coverage of snow showers across our counties which border the Cumberland Plateau (i.e. Cumberland/Clinton/Russell/Casey/Lincoln). As the sfc low continues to push east tonight, sfc high pressure axis will begin to creep in from the west, leading to lighter west winds by sunrise Thursday. Additionally, moisture should become shallower late tonight, which should assist in bringing an end to any snow showers/flurries by mid- morning tomorrow. Where any snow showers occur, isolated slick spots will be possible tonight into tomorrow morning as temperatures fall into the 20s. Thursday... The daytime hours on Thursday should bring a period of relative quiet weather-wise as sfc high pressure slides into the Tennessee Valley. With the high mainly staying to the SW of the area, we won't be able to get strong warm southwesterly return flow, with lingering clouds also helping to keep temperatures down. Expecting highs on Thursday to range from the low 30s north of I-64 to around 40 along the TN border, where there is a better chance of briefly clearing skies. Any clearing which does occur should be short-lived as mid- and high clouds increase from the NW Thursday afternoon ahead of the next approaching system. Thursday Night and Friday... Thursday afternoon, an upper-level shortwave dropping out of the Canadian prairies will interact with a sfc low near the NE/SD border. A strong NW-SE baroclinic zone will extend from the Dakotas down to the southeast US coast, cutting right across Indiana and Kentucky. A typical clipper-type system will descend along this gradient from the upper Midwest into the lower Ohio Valley Thursday night into Friday, with an effective warm front extending out ahead of the sfc low center. It will be along and northeast of this warm front where precipitation develops Thursday afternoon into the evening, with mid-level warm frontogenesis supporting enhanced bands of precipitation, with soundings suggesting p-types almost exclusively being snow, at least through Friday morning. South and west of the warm front's position, a loss of deep moisture will lead to little in the way of precipitation. As a result of enhanced snow bands right in the vicinity of the warm front, there will likely be quite a sharp cutoff in snow amounts from NE to SW across the area. Today's model guidance leaves quite a bit of lingering uncertainty in snowfall amounts across portions of the LMK CWA. Across south central and southwest KY, there is still fairly high confidence that the band of snow will remain to the north, with little to no snowfall expected. The picture is more uncertain across north central KY and southern IN. While the 12Z GFS/ECMWF/Canadian and their ensembles have trended south with the band of snow, the hi-res guidance remains displaced farther to the northwest. At this time, probabilities of greater than 1" of snow exceed 50% roughly northeast of a line from Huntingburg, IN to Mount Vernon, KY, while the 80% probability contour of greater than 1" of snow is only about 25-30 miles to the northeast. This further supports the idea of a sharp gradient in snowfall amounts. It's also worth noting that the chances for greater than 4" of snow have increased considerably today across portions of southeast IN and the KY Bluegrass, with probabilities now approaching 50%. Per collaboration with surrounding offices, we've held off on issuing any headlines at this time; however, it is increasingly likely that a winter weather advisory - and possibly a localized winter storm warning, may be needed for the snow potential Thursday night into Friday morning. During the day on Friday, the sfc low should track across south central KY, resulting in a sharp temperature gradient from north to south across the region. Snow should come to an end across the KY Bluegrass by mid-to-late morning, with mostly cloudy skies continuing through the rest of the day. Some clearing may occur along the TN border, especially if the sfc low tracks farther to the north. Temperatures should range from the upper 30s along and north of I-64 to the low 50s (!) along the TN border. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 400 PM EST Wed Dec 10 2025 Weekend... Surface low pressure over the Great Lakes will drag a cold front through the lower Ohio Valley on Saturday morning. As this system is not mature and stacked aloft, the CAA and troughing will be delayed behind the front. Troughing associated with the system will deepen over the Ohio Valley and push through on Sunday. If this setup continues over the next several forecast periods, it will be an interesting case. Aloft, a strong jet will place the northern half of the region under the right entrance region and a 30-35kt LLJ will help supply some lower level lift. Coinciding with long range guidance suggesting elevated potential vorticity and a area of frontogenesis. This setup will provide deep layer lift to deep layer moisture (PWATs around 0.55-0.6 inches which is near the 80% percentile of climatology). This setup could allow for efficient snow production Saturday into Sunday. There is great spread between ensembles and deterministic model guidance on snowfall amounts, specifically over the northern half of the region. Over the southern half of the region, there is good confidence in no snow to a trace of snowfall. Will continue to monitor this system, as it could be quite impactful to the northern half of the region if higher snow total probabilities continue. Additionally, as the main troughing pushes through the region, very strong CAA quickly drops temperatures. Sunday morning, we could see lows in the single digits over northern areas and low teens over southern areas. A strong surface high will quickly build in from the west, keeping pressure gradients and a weak LLJ over the region. This will allow for breezy conditions on Sunday, making it feel colder with minimum wind chills in the near or below zero range. Some areas in southern Indiana may see wind chills near -5. It is possible that a cold weather advisory may be needed for Sunday morning. High temperatures on Sunday will be in the teens and 20s. These cold max temperatures will be close to the record for Sunday. Monday Through Mid Next Week... High pressure will be centered over the region on Monday morning, leading to weak winds and clear skies with continued CAA. This will allow temperatures to efficiently cool and low temperatures to be in the single digits over most of the region. However, since winds will be calm to light, wind chills will be close to the temperature. Impacts will mostly be to the Monday morning school bus stop timing which will be quite chilly. Make sure to have extra layers on this day. From Monday afternoon through the middle of next week, ridging will likely build over the region and high pressure will remain. This will allow continued dry conditions, sunny skies, and warming temperatures. Overall Forecast Confidence in the Long Term... Confidence has generally increased across the board. Deterministic guidance and ensembles are beginning to convergence on setup and timing. Though there still remains quite a spread on snowfall amounts for Saturday into Sunday. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1225 AM EST Thu Dec 11 2025 MVFR ceilings continue at the TAF sites this evening, and are expected to persist through the overnight into Thursday. Some brief improvement back to VFR is possibly through the afternoon and early evening hours, however look for conditions to quickly deteriorate to low MVFR or even IFR shortly after sunset as a clipper system brings snowfall to our area. BWG will mostly be spared from this late drop in conditions, and expect them to stay VFR under an overcast mid deck of clouds and perhaps some very light wintry mix. Surface winds tonight stay pretty steady out of the NW, however will gradually weaken and go WSW through the day, and then light SE by later Thursday evening. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Friday for KYZ031>037-039>043-048-049. IN...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Friday for INZ077>079-092. && $$ UPDATE...EBW SHORT TERM...CSG LONG TERM...SRW AVIATION...BJS ####018004557#### FXUS64 KOHX 110527 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1127 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1122 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 - Low chance for snow across the Upper Cumberland Plateau tonight through early Thursday morning. Accumulations expected to be less than a half inch. - Another cold front will impact the region this weekend, bringing the coldest air of the season so far Saturday night through Monday morning, with widespread lows in the teens to single digits. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Thursday Night) Issued at 1008 PM CST Wed Dec 102025 With an upper-level trough tracking through the Ohio Valley, a cold front has made it through Middle TN. Breezy northerly to northwesterly winds are in place behind the front, but these should continue to diminish overnight. There is a low chance for snow showers across the upper Plateau with favorable upslope flow in place. A big limiting factor though is the amount of moisture available. This evening's 00Z sounding still shows a lot of dry air, particularly above -10C. Model soundings across the Plateau show a similar story as well with the lack of moisture. Recent CAM runs have backed off on the snow potential tonight with only a low 10-20% chance of accumulations greater than a half inch in the higher elevations. Any light showers overnight will diminish by early Thursday morning, and in the wake of the front, a cooler day will be in store as highs only warm into the 40s with upper-30s along the Plateau. A shortwave tracks through the Ohio Valley Thursday night. The bulk of the moisture and precipitation still looks to stay to our north with just a low chance (20-30%) for additional snow showers maintained in the forecast for the Plateau near the KY border. Little if any accumulations are expected before any showers end by early Friday morning. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Thursday) Issued at 1008 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 Highs on Friday will warm into the 50s, but don't get used to it. A cold front will dive south, bringing a blast of the coldest air of the season so far for this weekend. Saturday night, lows will drop into the teens with highs on Sunday only making into the 20s. Temperatures fall into the teens and even single digits again Sunday night. Temperatures won't warm back up above freezing again until around noon on Monday. This means that the area will have about 36 consecutive hours of temperatures below freezing. There is a lot of uncertainty regarding precipitation Saturday night with a shortwave clipping our area to the north. The forecast this evening has a low chance (15-30%) for precipitation Saturday night, and with temperatures plummeting during this time frame, precipitation type would be snow or even a wintry mix before temperatures are able to fall completely below freezing. Models are in wide disagreement over precipitation chances, and as such, probabilities for any impactful accumulations at this time are very low. Surface winds turn southerly again on Monday, allowing temperatures to rebound back into the 40s and 50s next week. As far as our next chance of rain, that looks to come on Wednesday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1122 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 VFR cigs right around 030 have stayed in place most of tonight, and latest models are keeping this the case through the overnight, so am going with a VFR taf at BNA, MQY, and CKV. MVFR cigs can be expected at CSV and SRB through late morning. Northwest winds are relaxing and will be between 6 to 8 kts overnight. A gradual wind shift to the south will occur after 21Z with speeds around 5 kts. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 27 45 37 57 / 10 10 10 0 Clarksville 26 44 36 53 / 10 10 10 0 Crossville 25 39 30 51 / 10 10 10 0 Columbia 26 47 35 57 / 10 0 10 0 Cookeville 25 40 32 52 / 10 10 20 0 Jamestown 25 37 30 50 / 20 10 30 0 Lawrenceburg 25 46 34 58 / 10 0 10 0 Murfreesboro 26 45 35 57 / 10 10 10 0 Waverly 26 44 36 54 / 10 0 10 0 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Clements LONG TERM....Clements AVIATION.....Baggett ####018005264#### FXUS63 KEAX 110528 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 1128 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Wind Gusts Continue To Diminish Through The Evening - Temperature Roller Coaster This Week - Light Snow Possible Northern/Northeastern MO Thursday, Saturday && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 305 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 Deep trough axis has moved into the Ohio River Valley this afternoon and has shifted the strong surface cyclone into the Great Lakes Region. The strongest portion of the pressure gradient has finally exited eastward, and brought an end to the wind gusts of over 40 MPH. The last of the jet streak with that trough is exiting the area, but is still providing some lift over Central Missouri which will provide cloud cover through the rest of the evening. H5 ridge axis is developing over the western third of the CONUS with strong AVA regime into the Central CONUS, forcing a surface anticyclone into the eastern Plains through the remainder of the evening. This will result in clearing clouds this evening for western Missouri and eastern Kansas. Strong northwesterly flow behind the exiting cold front will allow temperatures to drop into the mid and upper 20s across most of the forecast area through early Thursday morning. An H5 disturbance over British Columbia will be pushed through the northwesterly flow downstream of the ridge axis and will provide enough dCVA to develop a surface low across the Central CONUS through Thursday afternoon, forcing the preceding surface anticyclone into the southern Plains. As this low develops, surface flow will turn southwesterly from Kansas into the lower Missouri River Valley, which will force a warm front back across much of the forecast area. By Thursday afternoon this will push eastern and western Missouri back into the lower 50s. North-central to northeast Missouri will still be in the mid 30s, as the warm front is not progged to travel that far before the main low pressure system comes in and pushes this back southward. During Thursday afternoon, the mid-level vort maxima associated with this disturbance travels from Central Iowa toward Northeast Missouri, providing some lift along the leading edge of the warm front that may be enough to produce some precipitation. Currently, with temperatures in the lower to mid 30s, if anything is able to materialize for our northeastern counties, would most likely be a rain-snow mixture. Accumulations are still shaping up to be fairly light, perhaps just a few tenths of an inch. Areas north and northeast of Kirksville will see stronger mid-level lift support as well as other FGEN processes to result in more snowfall. If there is not enough moisture transport into north-central Missouri, our northeast counties could remain completely dry. Overall ensemble probabilities for detectable liquid QPF is between 40 and 50 percent, and drops to under 20 percent for threshold of 0.10 of liquid QPF. Therefore, yielding at best a few tenths of an inch of snow. Thursday Night into Friday, another H5 short-wave moves across the Northern Great Lakes Region while a stronger ridge comes ashore the western CONUS. Another strong AVA regime takes place across the Central CONUS and will work to build a strong surface anticyclone across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. This will push another cold airmass toward the area, continuing the roller coaster of temperatures through this week. Heading into Saturday, current deterministic guidance is suggesting two distinct thermal boundaries moving from the northern Plains into the lower Missouri Valley, while the low system over the Great Lakes forces a mid-level vort max back into the area. This is setting up the potential for another area of convergence for north-central and northeastern Missouri, which may bring more precipitation potential. With the colder air coming in, most of this it occurs would likely be snow. Once again, the stronger forcing is further northeast of our area, but could bring a few tenths of inch of snow again Saturday afternoon into the evening. Probabilities for 0.10 inches of liquid QPF are around 40 to 50 percent for our far northeast. Again, with that stronger anticyclone moving in, unsure of how much moisture would actually be available, and surface temperatures perhaps only reaching the teens. The anticyclone pushes through, leaving very cold air through the weekend, but flow remains progressive into next week that sending temperatures back above freezing for most of the forecast area. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 947 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 Good flying conditions will continue through this TAF issuance. High clouds continue to stream across the area tonight with that expected to continue into Thursday. VFR conditions are expected with light southeast winds. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Krull AVIATION...Cooley ####018004288#### FXUS64 KMAF 110528 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 1128 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1128 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 - Slightly cooler temperatures and breezy to gusty northeasterly winds continue this afternoon behind a passing cold front. - Above normal temperatures are expected Thursday through Saturday before a stronger cold front brings much cooler temperatures on Sunday. - Dry conditions persist through the weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Thursday night) Issued at 1225 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 Current observations and satellite imagery shows the cold front pushing down into the Big Bend region. Areas behind the front will continue to have breezy and gusty northeasterly winds (15-25 mph sustained, up to 35 mph gusts) this afternoon, though winds are not going to be as strong as what was seen earlier this morning. Cooler air is going to settle in across much of the region where high temperatures reach the upper 50s to mid 60s for most. Locations south of the Interstate 10 corridor are forecast to be in the 70s due to the cooler air not arriving until after daytime peak heating. Tonight, a surface high pressure system builds in from the north which will reinforce cooler air and continued clear skies across the forecast area. Low temperatures drop back into the low and upper 30s with a few spots in the Davis Mountains reaching the mid 20s. Surface winds veer southwesterly as the aforementioned surface high moves east of the region. Northwesterly flow aloft is also going to take shape, promoting warmer and continued dry conditions. High temperatures are anticipated to be back in the upper 60s to mid 70s placing highs 10-15 degrees above normal for this time of year. Lows Thursday night into Friday morning will be a couple of degrees warmer than the previous day (upper 30s to upper 40s). Lamberson && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 1225 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 The forecast remains relatively unchanged. Northwest flow aloft persists Friday and Saturday as an upper-level ridge builds in from the west. This will keep clear skies and warmer weather for both days. Surface winds veer to the southwest retaining highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s for most locations Friday and Saturday. Saturday night into Sunday, a cold front sweeps through the region which will drop high temperatures below normal. There remains a large spread amongst ensemble guidance for Sunday afternoon highs. Therefore, there is uncertainty of how cold temperatures may get. LREF, GEFS, and Euro plumes are suggesting a cooler solution. This will be dependent on how strong the cold air behind the front will be, along with the extent of cloud coverage Sunday afternoon. By early next week, temperatures rebound in the 60s to 70s, thanks to westerly flow aloft and southerly to southwesterly surface winds. Both Monday and Tuesday looks to be breezy as lee troughing sets up to our west, while a surface high will be off to the east. Dry conditions persist through the extended period. Lamberson && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1128 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 VFR conditions prevail. Light southerly to southwesterly winds through the period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 36 71 40 69 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 36 72 43 72 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 40 73 44 79 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 39 76 47 72 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 39 62 43 64 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 35 71 42 70 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 29 68 36 72 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 38 70 42 70 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 38 69 43 70 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 35 73 39 71 / 0 0 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....11 AVIATION...13