####018005221#### FXUS63 KMPX 060819 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 319 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Unsettled weather this week with the focus on tonight into Tuesday morning and Wednesday afternoon to Wednesday night. - Gusty winds today, especially in western Minnesota where a Wind Advisory is in effect. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 319 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024 Today and tomorrow... The high pressure responsible for the great day yesterday will be off to our east over the Great Lakes. Then to the west we will have the low for our next system moving into the Northern Plains. With us in the center, this will increase the pressure gradient and give us a classic signal for gusty winds. This is only enhanced by the warm air advection that we will get from the southerly winds today. This advection will warm the lower atmosphere allowing for mixing, further increasing confidence that today will be a windy day. As mentioned in previous discussions, today will be the warmest day of the week with temperatures in the lower 70s. Temperatures won't get much warmer than that thanks to cloud cover moving west to east this morning through the afternoon as our next round of rain moves in. As you would expect with our 100 PoPs, rain is definite as all members in the LREF and HREF show a line of showers passing through associated with the previously mentioned system. Where there remains more spread through is in QPF. The LREF remains higher with the previously mentioned quick 0.50-0.75" accumulations expected. HREF PMM show a more widespread 0.25-0.50" accumulation with more localized totals of 0.5-1.0" accumulations. What is less certain is if the precipitation rates will maintain as the line moves deeper into Minnesota. This is where the difference is, as HREF PMM keeps the higher totals more focused on southwestern Minnesota with a notable decrease in rain rate as it progresses deeper into the state. The risk for thunderstorms remains low as instability is limited, largely thanks to the time of day it passes through. However with high winds aloft we could still see some gusty winds mix down in the showers. We will remain in the warm sector on Tuesday and near the frontal boundary so additional activity could occur. This is shown in the 06Z HRRR for example with another line of thunderstorms feeding off of marginal instability across eastern Minnesota and into western Wisconsin. With limited shear it would be unlikely to see anything severe. Wednesday through Sunday... The upper low will remain rooted over the north central US until it finally starts to move out Friday. This will give continued chances for unsettled weather. Over the last few runs however ensembles have started to converge on Wednesday afternoon to Wednesday night as the next best chance for activity. As the upper low continues to churn over us an embedded short wave in its circulation could have enough PVA associated with it to bring with it some rain. Currently the best chances here look to be along the I-90 corridor. There are more chances for precipitation after this, but there are very high spreads in the ensemble models so PoPs have been kept low. Temperature wise, Wednesday will be similar to Tuesday in the mid 60s to lower 70s before Thursday ends up our coolest day of the week as we finally get to the cooler side of this system. Temperatures still likely getting into the lower 60s though. Temperatures will likely hold near normal Friday into the weekend. There is another round of synoptic forcing late Friday into early Saturday, but not much QPF in ensemble systems due to questionable moisture. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1116 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024 VFR conditions through Monday evening, before showers and thunderstorms move in. The main concern is low level turbulence as southeast winds increase on Monday. A solid line of showers with a few embedded thunderstorms will move across the region Monday evening/night. Confidence is high that TAF sites will see rain, but less for thunder, so did add Prob30 groups to KAXN, KRWF, and KMKT. KMSP...VFR conditions through Monday evening, before showers and thunderstorms move in. Southeast winds will increase on Monday, with gusts near 30 kts possible. A line of showers with a few embedded thunderstorms will approach KMSP around 05 to 06Z. Confidence is high that MSP will see rain, but less for thunder. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ TUE...Mainly VFR. Chance MVFR/-RA. Wind SW 15G25 kts. WED...Mainly VFR. Chance MVFR/-TSRA. Wind E 10-15 kts. THU...Mainly VFR. Chance MVFR/-RA. Wind NE 10-15 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM CDT this evening for Brown-Chippewa-Douglas-Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-Martin-Pope-Redwood-Renville-Stevens-Swift-Watonwan- Yellow Medicine. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...NDC AVIATION...JRB