####018002936#### FXUS64 KSHV 100005 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 705 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 401 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024 Severe Thunderstorm Watch #224 has been issued through midnight. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday Night) Issued at 549 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024 A second Severe Thunderstorm Watch #224 has been issued for deep east TX and Toledo Bend Country for this evening until midnight. Large hail and damaging winds with an isolated tornado now possible south of I-20. This activity will continue toward the MS River after midnight. /24/ && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Wednesday) Issued at 243 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024 A brief break in active weather will come to an end as the next workweek begins across the Four State Region. This is due to a quasi-zonal synoptic pattern augmented by a series of slower troughs and faster embedded shortwaves across northern Mexico and the Southern Plains. The first of these disturbances will arrive to instigate widespread convection as early as late Sunday into early Monday, while the next disturbance in the parade will arrive as early as Wednesday to keep precipitation chances going through most of the rest of the week. Day 1-7 QPF values of widespread 3+ inch totals are expected with isolated higher amounts possible as a result. Otherwise, temperature maximums/minimums in the 80s/60s will gradually return above normal (maximums approaching 90 once again) after the middle of next week. /16/ && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 658 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024 Scattered strong to severe convection will remain possible across much of the ArkLaTex through 10/05z. All TAF sites will be affected, but the risk of thunderstorms should generally begin to diminish from northwest to southeast beginning around 10/03z. A few scattered showers will remain possible through the overnight hours, but all rain chances should end before daybreak Friday morning. Outside of convective effects, VFR flight conditions should generally prevail with the exception of possibly a brief period of MVFR ceilings at KLFK. However, VFR conditions with only some high cirrus clouds are expected after 10/13z across the region. CN && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 67 84 62 82 / 50 0 0 0 MLU 66 83 59 82 / 70 0 0 0 DEQ 59 80 54 82 / 20 0 0 0 TXK 62 83 58 83 / 30 0 0 0 ELD 61 81 56 81 / 40 0 0 0 TYR 65 83 61 80 / 50 0 0 0 GGG 65 83 61 81 / 50 0 0 0 LFK 67 85 64 82 / 50 0 10 0 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM....16 AVIATION...09 ####018006165#### FXUS64 KMRX 100006 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 806 PM EDT Thu May 9 2024 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 739 PM EDT Thu May 9 2024 I am updating the current zone forecast to remove rain chances for the rest of the night. Weak broad cold front is moving across east Tennessee this evening with some drier air moving in from the northwest. Temperatures are in the mid 70s to lower 80s early this evening with skies partly cloudy to mostly clear. Longwave trough approaching from the northwest has most precipitation far to the north and northeast through the Ohio Valley and central Appalachians tonight so removed the rain across the northeast. Southwest winds are stronger in the northeast where drier airmass is moving in so do not expect fog there. Clouds will also increase from the southeast as high level clouds from storms to the south spread towards our region after midnight. Then more clouds into the northeast late with trough over the east. Some patchy fog is possible in the southeast where winds will be lighter and more low level moisture remains from the showers and storms that moved across this area this morning. Updated the hourly temperatures and dew points and cloud cover with tonight's forecast. Will send update in a few minutes. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday) Issued at 229 PM EDT Thu May 9 2024 Key Messages: 1. A few isolated showers possible tonight across extreme northeast TN and southwest VA. An isolated thunderstorm is also possible. No severe threats expected. 2. Patchy fog across the southern TN valley overnight. 3. Slight chance to chance POPs Friday, with breezy winds. Discussion... Tonight, a few isolated showers and possibly a thunderstorm across extreme northeast TN and southwest VA, out ahead of a longwave trough approaching from the northwest. Winds stay up enough overnight to prevent fog across most areas. However, calmer winds are expected across the southern TN valley and patchy fog is anticipated. Tomorrow will be cooler with northwest flow, clouds, and isolated showers. High temps will be around 5 to 8 degrees below normal. NBM also wants to put a slight chance thunder in the forecast but NAM soundings show a pretty significant midlevel cap. Will leave NBM slight chance thunder in forecast but very low confidence. If we do see a storm, it will be isolated with no severe threats. POP chances are due to the aforementioned upper level trough and associated shortwave rotating through the area. The exception is the southern TN valley, where conditions should remain dry. Breezy west to northwest winds expected tomorrow afternoon due to a tight pressure gradient across the area. Winds will gusts up to 25 mph in valley locations and up to 30 mph across the east TN mountains. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Thursday) Issued at 229 PM EDT Thu May 9 2024 Key Messages: 1. Cool temperatures through the weekend, with a chance of showers in northern sections Saturday. 2. An active pattern sets up by midweek, with rain chances Tuesday through Thursday. Discussion... On Saturday, a trough will be dropping SE from the Great Lakes to the central Appalachians and Mid Atlantic region. Mid and upper level forcing with the channeled vort max on the southern end of this trough will cross our SW VA counties, and bring a chance of showers in the afternoon. Forecast soundings show some low level instability below 700 mb with stable conditions above, so it will mainly be scattered showers and little to no thunderstorms. The NBM PoPs in the chance range down to Knoxville appear overdone for this system and will be scaled back a bit. High pressure will build over the area and provide dry weather for Sunday into part of Monday. Sunday's temperatures will be a little below normal in a N-NW flow pattern on the east side of the ridge, with highs in the lower to mid 70s. The ridge axis move east of the area on Monday, which should bring highs back into the mid and upper 70s, with increasing moisture and cloud cover. Showers may begin to spread into southern sections Monday afternoon and evening as a low pressure system tracks east across the MO Valley and Ozarks. Rain chances will ramp up to categorical and likely for Tuesday as this low tracks along the OH River. Instability and dynamic forcing look limited at this time, so no severe threat is expected. A weak ridge may bring a brief dry period from Wednesday into Wednesday night, but an amplifying trough over the Plains will result in PoPs increasing again on Thursday. Models differ on the amplification of this trough and the dynamic forcing associated with it, but if the GFS pattern is correct, it may be a system to watch for potentially strong to severe storms. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 739 PM EDT Thu May 9 2024 VFR conditions at all sites to start the evening. Gusty west to southwest winds at TRI will decrease this hour. Expect some MVFR fog at CHA to develop overnight due to left over moisture from the heavy rainfall today in combination with lighter winds and clear skies. TRI and TYS continued VFR through the entire period as drier airmass moves in. Winds increase again Friday 15 to 18Z from the northwest behind a cold front that is slowly moving through this evening to about 20 KTS all sites. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 63 78 52 76 / 10 10 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 59 73 48 71 / 10 30 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 58 73 48 73 / 0 30 0 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 56 70 45 66 / 10 40 10 40 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...TD LONG TERM....DGS AVIATION...TD ####018008720#### FXUS61 KPHI 100009 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 809 PM EDT Thu May 9 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Weak high pressure will remain across the northern Middle Atlantic region this evening. After that, several waves of low pressure affect our area with the unsettled patterned continuing from later tonight through Sunday. High pressure builds south of the Mid-Atlantic region Sunday night into Monday. More unsettled weather may impact our area next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Low pressure well to the west is moving rather quickly along the front (to our south) and will bring poorer conditions for as we head into the overnight. Spotty rain has already overspread the region. More rains will develop and move across the region as the evening continues and then become steadier overnight. Low pressure will move offshore by Friday morning and a NE flow around the N side of the low will bring low clouds and rains to the region late tonight. For Friday, the low will continue to move offshore, but an upper trough and lingering low level moisture will keep plenty of clouds and rains across the area Friday. For the evening update, main change was more of the flavor vs. substance... instead of showers, went with occasional/periods of rain and drizzle, given the cool onshore flow and overall lack of convection. NBM thunder probs do have some slight chances across southern areas, so did include a slight chance of thunder tonight and tomorrow as the main wave moves by, but its only slight and will be elevated above the cool marine layer. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Unsettled weather will continue through Sunday with a brief reprieve during the day on Saturday. PoPs remain in the 35-45 percent range Friday night as the low continues to move offshore but by early Saturday, the low looks to be far enough away that conditions should be mostly dry regionwide. Lows Friday night will be mainly in the mid-upper 40s and highs Saturday will warm back into the low 60s. By later in the day Saturday though, the next wave of low pressure will arrive out of the Great Lakes, increasing chances for showers, particularly northwest of the I-95 urban corridor. Showers continue to move into the region Saturday night (PoPs 45-55 percent) with lows again in the mid-upper 40s. Chances for rain will linger into Sunday as well with highs once again in the low 60s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... A brief period of dry weather is expected beginning Sunday night and continuing into Monday as high pressure briefly builds to the south of the Mid Atlantic region. This dry weather will only be brief as chances will begin to increase Tuesday night into Wednesday as a storm system approaches from the southwest. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas... Rest of Tonight...Rain/drizzle becoming more widespread and steadier with some patchy fog likely as well. Cigs lowering to MVFR through the evening with IFR cigs likely toward morning. East winds around 10 knots. Moderate confidence. Friday...Rain/drizzle continuing with conditions remaining IFR likely through at least the first half of the day with some improvement to low MVFR possible by afternoon. East to northeast winds around 10 knots with some gusts to 15-20 knots. Moderate confidence. Outlook... Friday night-Sunday...Sub-VFR conditions probable (50-60 percent chance) at times through the period with chances (40-50 percent) for showers. Sunday night-Tuesday...VFR conditions expected through Monday. Sub- VFR conditions with chances for showers return late Tuesday. && .MARINE... Latest guidance continues to advertise strong easterly flow developing as wave of low pressure passes to the south late tonight and Friday. In fact, its now advertising borderline gales over the NJ ocean zones. Did not go quite that far, but did increase winds to just below gales and extend time of SCA to begin a little earlier overnight. Also added SCA to Delaware Bay during peak winds Friday morning-midday. Will let mid-shift re- evaluate any need for upgrade to gales. Outlook... Friday night and Saturday...Small Craft Advisory extended for Atlantic Ocean coastal waters through Saturday. Seas of 5-6 feet expected with winds gusting 20-25 knots. Sub- SCA conditions on the Delaware Bay. Sub-SCA conditions return Saturday night. Sunday through Tuesday...Overall, mainly sub-SCA conditions expected through Monday. Stronger winds may bring SCA conditions back late Monday into Tuesday. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... The new moon occurred Tuesday, May 7th, and this is resulting in high astronomical tides. As a front settles to our south, an onshore flow will develop and strengthen some through the end of the week, peaking Friday into Friday night. While the astronomical tides will be gradually lowering as we get farther away from the new moon, the onshore flow should increase the surge values at least some. With this combination, widespread minor tidal flooding is again expected with the high tide tonight into early Friday morning for the Atlantic coastal zones, the Delaware Bay, and the tidal Delaware River. As a result, the Coastal Flood Advisories remain in effect for these areas. With the peak onshore flow leading up to the Friday night high tide cycle, guidance continues to support potential for moderate tidal flooding for portions of Atlantic coastal New Jersey and Delaware, as well as Delaware Bay with the Friday night to early Saturday morning high tide cycle. The Coastal Flood Watch was expanded to include southeastern Burlington and Ocean Counties. As of the 5 PM Thursday forecast update, our confidence is highest that coastal Sussex (DE) and Cape May Counties are the most likely locations to see moderate coastal flooding impacts Friday night, thus the Coastal Flood Watch was upgraded to a Warning for those two counties. Elsewhere within the Coastal Flood Watch area, there is somewhat lower confidence that moderate tidal flooding impact will be experienced. Thus, the Watch remains in effect. Regardless, widespread minor tidal flooding is expected within the Watch area and adjacent areas of the Atlantic coast of New Jersey, Delaware Bay, and the tidal Delaware River with the Friday night to early Saturday morning high tide cycle. Examination of tonight's observed water levels and surge values and additional guidance will be used to determine which areas will need to be upgraded to a warning or to an advisory for Friday night. The Friday night high tide cycle looks to be the peak of the coastal flooding impacts area-wide, but additional minor coastal flooding is forecast with the evening/overnight high tide Saturday night into early Sunday. Flooding is not expected at this time for our Maryland zones along the Chesapeake through Saturday. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...Coastal Flood Advisory from 1 AM to 6 AM EDT Friday for PAZ070- 071-106. NJ...Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 AM EDT Friday for NJZ016. Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for NJZ012>014- 020>027. Coastal Flood Watch from Friday evening through late Friday night for NJZ020>022-025>027. Coastal Flood Warning from 8 PM Friday to 4 AM EDT Saturday for NJZ023-024. Coastal Flood Advisory from 1 AM to 6 AM EDT Friday for NJZ017>019. DE...Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 AM EDT Friday for DEZ001. Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for DEZ002>004. Coastal Flood Watch from Friday evening through late Friday night for DEZ002. Coastal Flood Warning from 8 PM Friday to 4 AM EDT Saturday for DEZ003-004. MD...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 1 PM EDT Friday for ANZ430- 431. Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ450>453. Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Friday to 6 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ454-455. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AKL/OHara NEAR TERM...OHara/RCM SHORT TERM...MJL LONG TERM...MJL AVIATION...Fitzsimmons/MJL/OHara/RCM MARINE...MJL/OHara/RCM TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKL/Staarmann ####018009827#### FXUS62 KTAE 100009 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 809 PM EDT Thu May 9 2024 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... (Through Friday night) Issued at 225 PM EDT Thu May 9 2024 Currently as of 18z (2pm EDT), a broken deck of widespread cumulus clouds have puffed up across the entire region. We have temperatures in the upper 80s to nearly 90 degrees with dew points in the 70s. A broken line of strong to severe thunderstorms (along an Irwin Co GA to Quitman Co GA line) will be moving south/southeast as the outflow boundary pushes south this afternoon into the evening hours. Current Mesoanalysis data (18z) indicates deep layer shear of around 40-50 kts, surface based CAPE around 3500 J/kg (18z balloon launch shows 2700 J/kg at Tallahassee), and low to mid-level lapse rates are around 7C/km. All the ingredients are here for a potential severe weather outbreak that includes all hazards. We are expecting multiple rounds of severe weather today through tomorrow. The first round is ongoing as of the issuance of this AFD. As mentioned before, all hazards will be possible with the main concerns being destructive winds up to 75 mph and large hail. Our Alabama and Georgia counties are currently in an Enhanced (3 of 5) risk for Severe weather this afternoon through early tomorrow morning. From the Florida state line south to the Gulf coast is included in a Slight (2 of 5) risk for severe weather. Along with the storms comes the probability of heavy rainfall, which the WPC has included areas along and north of I-10 in a Slight (2 of 4) risk for excessive rainfall. Flash flooding will be a concern with any training storms. Round 1: Storms will be moving along an outflow boundary south/southeast into our Georgia and Alabama counties this afternoon and continue south/southeast into the evening hours. All hazards will be possible with these lines of storms. The storms will likely move into the Florida Big Bend region later this evening. Rain chances are highest for our AL and GA counties with PoPs ranging from 60-80 percent. For areas along and south of I-10, PoPs decrease from 50% to about 30% for the extreme SE Big Bend this evening. Between rounds, we expect a lull in convective activity. Round 2: A line of storms will be coming in from the west that develops along a shortwave perturbation, leading to a QLCS around the Mississippi River and quickly moving across the Gulf States during the early morning hours on Friday. This round of storms are the more concerning ones for this event. This line of storms will move quickly across the CWA during the morning hours. We are still prior to 12z Friday at this time, so the Enhanced SPC risk is still in place. The main concern for this round will be the destructive winds. Hi-res guidance is indicating a possible widespread swath of damaging winds, with possible gusts greater than 74 mph, and a few tornadoes with this QLCS. A reminder, this round will be beginning during the overnight hours and continuing through daybreak. PoPs for Friday morning range from 50-80%, mainly along the state line and areas north. This line of storms should complete its passage through the CWA by mid-late morning, exiting to the SE Big Bend. However, there may be some showers and thunderstorms following this QLCS that may develop, but confidence is medium at the moment. That will depend on how all previous storms behaved and whether the atmosphere is stable or not. After all that, the cold front will finally make its passage during the evening hours Friday through the overnight hours. Coming back to the present, temperatures today will be warm in the upper 80s to low 90s, with overnight temps cooling to the low 70s. Friday's highs will be a little cooler in the mid-80s due to the rain and cloud cover. && .SHORT TERM... (Saturday through Sunday Night) Issued at 225 PM EDT Thu May 9 2024 No weather concerns during this time frame for any severe weather recovery efforts. No precipitation is expected on Saturday and Sunday with a cooler and drier air mass compared to earlier in the week. It will be mostly sunny on Saturday with an increase in mid and high level cloudiness on Sunday. Highs both days in the low to mid-80s and lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Much lower dew points will make for a comfortable air mass this weekend. Winds will generally be around 10 mph. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Wednesday) Issued at 225 PM EDT Thu May 9 2024 On Monday another shortwave looks to move across the northern Gulf states with our region possibly being impacted on Tuesday as winds turn to being southeasterly. With this shortwave possibly moving overhead, a stationary boundary to our south, left behind from the previous system, and a low-level wind field again around 30-45 kts, the potential for severe is once again present. We'll have to see how this progresses over the next few days to have better confidence, be sure to come back for updates. Expect relatively cooler temps to what we've been experiencing as of late. Daytime highs will generally be in the low to mid 80s with overnight lows generally in the upper 50s to mid 60s until Tuesday morning. Beyond Tuesday morning, overnight lows look to rebound into the mid and upper 60s. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 800 PM EDT Thu May 9 2024 The main challenge will be with timing of a thunderstorm squall line or large convective cluster that will move across the terminals late tonight and in the morning. The main squall line could be preceded by some isolated and discreet thunder cells, then the main squall line could be followed by 3-5 hours of trailing stratiform thunder. More scattered thunderstorm redevelopment is possible on Friday afternoon. Otherwise, IFR ceilings will try to move in late this evening, but then the arrival of thunderstorms late tonight will disrupt the low clouds and improve ceilings, even as the heaviest thunderstorms are moving through. && .MARINE... Issued at 225 PM EDT Thu May 9 2024 An Atlantic ridge axis across the southern Florida Peninsula will retreat southward tonight. A cold front will slowly approach from the north on Friday, preceded by strong to severe thunderstorms over the waters. Cautionary conditions could be possible Friday. The front will limp across the waters on Friday night. It will be followed by moderate to occasionally fresh northerly breezes on Saturday morning. Surface high pressure over the southern Plains on Saturday will move across the Southeast States on Sunday, causing winds to clock around. High pressure will move east into the Atlantic on Monday, brining a return to south-southeasterly flow. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 225 PM EDT Thu May 9 2024 Multiple rounds of wetting rains and severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon through Friday morning. The first round is this afternoon through the evening hours where all modes of severe weather are possible. Outside of storms, high dispersions are still likely for the rest of this afternoon for areas along the I-10/I-75 Corridor in the FL Big Bend. The second round of storms is expected during the morning hours on Friday. By the afternoon, showers and thunderstorms are expected to have cleared the CWA with fair dispersions behind the storms. Elevated dispersions will be just behind the front, possibly clipping our northwestern-most counties in SE Alabama Friday afternoon. Fair to moderate dispersions are expected for the rest of the period. Following Friday's cold front, winds will shift to be northerly, with transwinds at about 10-15 mph. Temperatures will be briefly cooler with MinRH in the mid-30s% to around 40%. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 225 PM EDT Thu May 9 2024 A slight risk of excessive rainfall exists along and north of I-10 today and tonight (SE AL, SW GA, and portions of the FL counties), with a marginal risk for most of the area on Friday as a frontal system looks to push through the region. The primary risk here being torrential downpours or training within any thunderstorm(s) leading to a localized flash flooding risk. Otherwise, area rivers are expected to remain below flood stage. In the extended period the WPC is forecasting 3-5 inches by midweek next week. This could introduce some riverine concerns, however, it's too far out to say with any degree of confidence. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 72 86 62 83 / 40 70 10 0 Panama City 74 84 64 83 / 50 50 0 0 Dothan 69 83 59 81 / 80 80 0 0 Albany 69 83 58 80 / 60 80 0 0 Valdosta 70 83 62 81 / 40 80 10 0 Cross City 72 86 64 85 / 50 40 30 10 Apalachicola 76 83 66 81 / 50 40 10 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through Saturday morning for FLZ108-112- 114-115. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...Montgomery SHORT TERM...LF LONG TERM....Oliver AVIATION...Haner MARINE...Oliver FIRE WEATHER...Montgomery HYDROLOGY...Oliver