####018006910#### FXUS62 KTAE 190138 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 938 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026 ...New UPDATE, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 936 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026 - There is a 30% chance for tropical development over the northeast Gulf over the weekend into early next week. It remains too early to determine specific impacts, although heavy rain appears likely in Florida. Please check future updates at hurricanes.gov as the tropical weather outlook is issued four times a day at 2 AM and PM and 8 AM and PM. - There is a marginal risk of excessive rainfall the next couple of days, mainly in our Florida counties. Do not drive through flooded roadways. && .UPDATE... Issued at 936 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026 No significant changes to the forecast this evening. Shower and thunderstorm activity this evening has been diminishing and should continue its downward trend over the next couple of hours. && .SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM... (This Evening through next Friday) Issued at 431 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026 Showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue to develop or track into the forecast area from the north this evening and into the overnight hours. Storm coverage has initialized area wide as a boundary of comparatively dry air pushes in from the east. Currently a half inch difference with this boundary can be seen over the eastern most portions of the forecast area on satellite derived PWAT. This will potentially be an inhibitor, reinforcing the model guidance of activity eventually being focused in our western half. That said, this could also be a potential source of increased dcape along or east of the boundary. West of the dry air, PWATS of 2 inches or more will make for continued efficient rainmakers, with training storms creating some localized flooding concerns. Additional storm coverage is expected tomorrow as morning shower and thunderstorm activity over the gulf associated with invest 91L begin to make their way onshore. That brings us to the elephant in the room, the uncertainty around invest 91L. Models do an inherently bad job of predicting these kinds of things before a closed low has actually formed, so there is a large amount of uncertainty based on if and where the circulation actually forms. Current guidance has shifted things forming a little south and west compared to yesterday with a general northwestward-ish movement, and a very large differences from model to model. Our biggest impacts at the moment will continue to be rounds of high rain rate showers and storms, leading to some possible flooding concerns, at least for the immediate future. A flight into 91L is scheduled for tomorrow afternoon to get a more detailed picture. Currently, NHC has a 30% chance for this becoming a tropical system within the next 48 hours. Even if 91L isn't named we can still expect periods of heavy rain with localized flooding and some potentially gusty winds. Looking past 91L, the overall picture remains high pressure over the midwest and troughing over the northeast, with some shortwaves dragging potential frontal boundaries and forcing mechanisms with them through the mean flow. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 714 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026 Showers and thunderstorms will continue to impact the ECP and ABY terminals this evening. Gusty winds and frequent lightning will be the main impacts. Overnight, storms should diminish. There is a PROB30 group for the DHN terminal for a chance of pre-dawn thunderstorms. Otherwise, light to calm winds with VFR cigs. During the afternoon on Sunday, showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop again, affecting mainly our western terminals with another round of strong to damaging wind gusts and frequent lightning. Outside of thunderstorms, VFR cigs will prevail with light south/southeasterly winds. && .MARINE... Issued at 936 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026 Scattered showers and thunderstorms are ongoing over our waters this evening. Easterly to southeasterly flow is expected to continue through the weekend. However, this is dependent on Invest 91L drifting north/northwestward in the eastern Gulf, which currently has a 40% chance of developing over the next 2 days, and a 50% chance over the next 7 days, from the 8PM EDT update. As the system meanders in the Gulf, our winds and seas are expected to increase as we head into the start of the workweek. The position of the system will determine what impacts, if any, we could expect. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 223 AM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026 Scattered to numerous showers and storms are forecast over the weekend into early next week and should limit fire weather concerns through at least Tuesday. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 431 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026 Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms are forecast to pinwheel around a broad area of low pressure in the eastern Gulf, regardless of tropical development. Precipitable water values (PWATs) in excess of 2" means any showers and storms over the weekend could easily produce a quick 1" to 2" of rain with each storm. All told, 1" to 3" of rain is forecast across much of the area, with locally higher amounts exceeding 5" possible, especially across the Florida Big Bend. As such, the Weather Prediction Center (WPC) maintains a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 4) for Excessive Rainfall through at least Tuesday. Rivers from the Aucilla River eastward are relatively low, and with the latest rainfall forecast, amounts are not sufficient to lead to river flooding. From the Ochlockonee River Basin westward, rivers are more susceptible to flooding, should significant rainfall occur. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 74 90 74 89 / 20 50 50 90 Panama City 74 91 75 90 / 70 50 40 90 Dothan 73 91 73 91 / 80 50 20 70 Albany 73 93 73 92 / 60 30 10 60 Valdosta 73 93 74 91 / 20 20 20 70 Cross City 73 90 73 90 / 20 50 70 90 Apalachicola 76 87 77 87 / 50 60 80 90 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Humphreys LONG TERM....Humphreys AVIATION...Montgomery MARINE...Montgomery FIRE WEATHER...Humphreys HYDROLOGY...Humphreys