####018005075#### FXUS63 KDLH 110545 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 1145 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - A few weak clippers will pass by Thursday and Friday. Light snow amounts are expected. - Bitterly cold air is expected over the weekend. Highs will struggle to rise above zero Saturday and Sunday, and lows in the teens below with wind chills in the 20s to 30s below zero are expected Saturday and Sunday mornings. - A warmup is expected next week with temperatures rising into the 20s above zero. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 120 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 Following the departure of the snowy clipper from last night, cooler air is filtering into the Northland today. While most of the accumulation has ended, expect a few lingering flurries as clouds slowly clear out, initially from northeast to southwest this afternoon and evening as some dry air works its way in. Overnight lows will drop significantly as arctic air begins its initial approach with lows falling into the single digits below zero tonight for most places. Winds shifting slightly west of north tonight should keep the bulk of any lake-effect snow focused over the Upper Peninsula of Michigan, though the South Shore in Wisconsin may see some light flurries or a dusting. It's looking like a quiet start to Thursday as high pressure briefly takes control. However, a very weak shortwave passing through the region could deliver a glancing blow of light snow to the Brainerd Lakes area and greater north-central Minnesota by Thursday afternoon. This will likely be minor with totals not likely to exceed half an inch or so. By Friday, a more defined clipper system and cold front move through. While most areas will see less than an inch of accumulation, we are monitoring a few models that suggest potential for slightly higher amounts locally up to one or two inches particularly in the Arrowhead region if QPF ends up on the high end. The South Shore (particularly northern Iron County) should start seeing some light lake-effect snow following the clipper/cold front as well. The most significant story for the forecast period is the plunge into bitter cold for the weekend. Confidence is high that arctic air will settle over the region, with high temperatures on Saturday struggling to climb above zero degrees. Overnight low temperatures are projected to fall into the -15 degree range Saturday and Sunday mornings (probability is around 40-80% for much of the region to see temperatures of -15 degrees or colder, especially to the west in north-central Minnesota). These won't necessarily be ideal radiational cooling nights with some fairly tight pressure gradients expected with the northwest flow. 850-hPa temperatures plunging to around -25C or so will be the culprit for the cold temperatures. Winds combined with these cold temperatures will generate bitterly cold wind chills in the -20s to -30s. There is a low but non-zero chance (around 10-20 percent) that wind chills could plummet to near -40 in north-central Minnesota. Folks should ensure cold weather kits are ready in vehicles and limit time outdoors this weekend. A warming trend returns early next week, bringing temperatures back closer to seasonal averages. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1145 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 VFR conditions will prevail across much of the region through the period. The exception will be at BRD where MVFR stratus will persist through late morning before lifting to VFR. MVFR stratus then looks to return at BRD Thursday evening. Some light snow showers or flurries will be possible late Thursday afternoon. Have kept PROB30 mentions for this at the MN terminals. && .MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 120 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 Northwest winds remain elevated into tonight, particularly along the North Shore from Grand Marais to Grand Portage where gusts up to 25- 30 knots are possible through late tonight. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect into tonight. Waves of 1 to 3 feet will gradually subside early this evening. Winds will back to the west-southwest gradually on Thursday into Thursday night with speeds becoming light. Attention turns to Friday when winds will become northwesterly with a potent cold front and weak clipper system. Expect gusty winds to develop Friday and into the weekend. There is a 10-40% chance for some gales for parts of the North Shore Friday night into Saturday morning. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CST Thursday for LSZ140>142. && $$ DISCUSSION...JDS AVIATION...BJH MARINE...JDS ####018006425#### FXUS64 KHUN 110546 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 1146 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1040 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 - Low chances of precipitation return to the forecast Saturday night as a cold front pushes through the area. - The precipitation late Saturday night could become a wintry mix before ending, as temperatures fall before daybreak Sunday. - Confidence is increasing in a potential of very cold conditions early next week (~25% probabilities for low temps in the teens Monday morning). && .NEAR TERM... (Rest of tonight and Thursday) Issued at 1040 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 An area of low pressure moving eastward across northern New York state has brought a cold front across this region earlier today. With that boundary to our east, colder air wrapping around this exiting low has pushed lower clouds more to our SE. These post frontal low altitude clouds were heading SE from southern Illinois to the southern Cumberland Plateau (that includes far NE Alabama, eastern Tennessee and northern Georgia). General model output was keeping them mainly near and east of the I-65 corridor. Although cloud bases from Nashville and to the south and SE were above 3000ft AGL, somewhat lower cloud base more to the NW could move across parts of the Tennessee Valley in the overnight. There appears low chances of them reaching Huntsville with even lower chances over NW Alabama. Otherwise, 10 PM temperatures have cooled into the lower 40s with NW winds of 5-15 mph. As noticeably colder air filters in from the north, temperatures overnight should tumble into the mid/upper 20s. The winds should subside to around 5 mph towards daybreak Thursday. New models output was hinting at patchy fog forming around daybreak; which could occur should winds become lighter than anticipated. The aformentioned clouds should gradually dissipate as we go into the day with partly cloudy conditions expected. Highs later should rise into the mid/upper 40s with light winds. && .SHORT TERM... (Thursday night through Saturday) Issued at 1040 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 The storm system over eastern Canada should be exiting Labrador Thursday night into Friday. Cold air wrapping around this system will retreat more to our NE, with not as chilly conditions Thu night. Lows should only fall into the 30s (lower 30s east to upper 30s west). Likewise, Friday should be a milder day with highs rising into the mid/upper 50s. A clipper system moving to the SE from the northern High Plains should move across the central Cumberland Plateau Friday. A dry front trailing southward from it should move across this area Fri afternoon and evening. Colder air filtering in from the NW will bring slightly cooler conditions to close out the week. Lows Friday night should fall more into the lower 30s areawide. Highs Saturday will be in the low/mid 50s. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Wednesday) Issued at 1040 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 The forecast will get tricky Saturday night into early Sunday, as a moisture return plus much colder air filtering in could result in a wintry mix before daybreak Sunday. The latest run of the NBM was continuing a lower-level moisture feed from the Gulf region to across the Tennessee Valley. This output appears close to what the 00Z NAM was showing (both showed more moisture return compared to the drier older GFS, Canadian, ECMWF. Going with those latter deterministic models would result in a dry forecast, with sufficient moisture for precipitation remaining staying south of the region. The previous NBM was showing this but with a larger coverage. Going with a wetter scenario, a moisture return should be sufficient to get rain going Saturday evening across the area. A mix of rain/sleet/freezing rain/snow should begin after midnight Saturday night. Forecast temperatures begin falling to and below freezing at midnight over our Tennessee counties, and the rest of the area by 3 AM. The precipitation should end from NW to SE as even colder and drier air filers in towards daybreak Sunday. Elevated and grassy surfaces (including bridges and overpasses) could receive a light accumulation, especially if liquid totals over a few hundredths of an inch occur. The temperatures falling into the 20s could also produce more accumulations too. The blends run to run (moisture wise) were trending drier, so by the weekend the precip threat could be south of this area - if the drier trend continues. Forecast temperatures by sunrise Sunday will tumble into the upper teens north to mid 20s south of the Tennessee River. A very cold start to a new week is expected, with high temperatures only reaching the mid/upper 20s north to low/mid 30s south. A blustery northerly wind of 5-15 mph with higher gusts will produce wind chill values 10-15 degrees colder than the actual air temperatures. Very cold conditions will continue Sun night with lows in the low/mid teens. Winds thankfully should be lighter by this time that will help in the wind chill department. Still cold for the start of the work week, with highs struggling to around 40. Another chilly period Monday night, with lows in the low/mid 20s; and highs Tuesday moderating to around 50. The models were all showing moisture return from the south Tuesday night, bringing lower end chances of rain to the Tennessee Valley Tue night into Wednesday. With temperatures moderating, this should be an all liquid event. Lows Tue night should range in the 30s (colder east), with highs Wed into the low/mid 50s. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1146 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 VFR conditions will exist at the HSV/MSL terminals this forecast period, as postfrontal stratus will remain situated to the northeast of the region. Thus, we expect only a few-sct coverage of mid and high-level clouds, with a lgt NNW wind that will become calm close to 12Z. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...RSB SHORT TERM...RSB LONG TERM...RSB AVIATION...70/DD ####018004177#### FXUS61 KCTP 110547 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 1247 AM EST Thu Dec 11 2025 .SYNOPSIS... *Windy and colder tonight through Thursday with transition to lake effect snow *Locally heavy lake effect snow bands and snow squalls possible over the northern tier Thursday *Additional bouts of winter weather possible Friday through Sunday && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Back edge of WAA rain/snow/sleet pushing east of Route 219 at 20Z. Temps should remain on a steady to rising trend into the evening before the cold front moving across Lake Erie sweeps through central PA later tonight. Expect little to no additional wet snow accumulation on the front end of this system given very marginal to above freezing air/road surface temperatures. RWIS and MVIEW webcams show roads are just wet in most of the CWA. As low pressure tracks into the St. Lawrence Valley tonight, post-frontal CAA within cyclonic flow on the backside of the storm will kick-start the Lake Effect Snow (LES) machine. Gusty winds 30-40 mph are expected to deliver the colder air with temperatures falling into the upper teens and 20s by 12Z Thu. Wet surfaces and slush could refreeze and may result in slick spots. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Windy and 10-20 degrees colder tomorrow with lake effect snow showers and bands streaming southeast from Lake Erie across portions of north-central PA. SNSQ parameter signal maximizes risk along the northern tier or to the north of I80 into early Thursday night. Additional, long-duration snow accumulations through Thursday night across the northwest snowbelts generally ranges from 3-6" with locally higher amounts up to 8" or so possible in the most persistent bands. LES should fade out by Friday afternoon; next clipper slides to the south but could clip the SW mtns with some light snow possible by Friday night. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Models suggest some light snow may be possible on Saturday with a better signal focusing on Sunday as another/more potent clipper disturbances translates around an upper trough over the Great Lakes. Cold and windy behind the late weekend system with lake effect and upslope snow into early next week. There may be some signs of a brief? thaw heading into the middle of next week. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Scattered snow showers will continue through the night, gradually becoming more confined to northwest PA through sunrise. Outside of BFD and JST, expect ceilings to rise to VFR by 12-14Z. Snowfall rates downwind of Lake Erie will increase after 14Z as the lake effect bands intensify in response to a shortwave trough moving across the lake. This should bring moderate snowfall into BFD, dropping visibility to IFR. There is still considerable variation in the models regarding the timing and placement of the heaviest bands, any bands moving directly over the airfield would likely result in visibility dropping below 1/2SM. Gusty winds are expected through the rest of the night and during the day on Thursday, with northwest winds sustained between 15 and 25 knots and gusts of 25 to 35 knots (strongest at JST and AOO). Lake effect snow showers continue at BFD through the evening and into the overnight hours. Ceilings briefly rise to VFR at JST during the evening, but will lower to MVFR once again after 00Z. Outlook... Fri-Mon...Additional rounds of light snow possible with multiple clipper systems. && .CLIMATE... Astronomical winter (solstice) begins at 10:03 a.m. on Sunday, December 21st. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM EST Friday for PAZ004>006- 010-011-017. Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for PAZ024-033. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl NEAR TERM...Steinbugl SHORT TERM...Steinbugl LONG TERM...Steinbugl AVIATION...Bauco CLIMATE...Steinbugl ####018006318#### FXUS62 KRAH 110548 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 1245 AM EST Thu Dec 11 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A moisture-starved cold front, will move across central NC tonight. High pressure will follow build into the SE Thursday into Friday. Meanwhile, a series of weak upper level impulses will move through the region late Thursday night and Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 355 PM Wednesday... Downstream of a vigorous shortwave trough, a band of precipitation, mostly virga as it overspreads cntl NC, will pivot ewd along the leading edge of associated, strong DCVA and mid-level height falls and Fgen this evening. An isolated sprinkle may also result over the nw Piedmont, where cloud bases/ceilings are forecast to reach a minimum of 4-6 thousand ft. It will otherwise be a seasonably chilly night, with clearing behind the considerable evening cloudiness, with lows in the upr 20s to mid 30s. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/... As of 345 PM Wednesday... * Brisk Heights aloft will rise from the MS Valley to the South and Middle Atlantic states behind an anomalously strong mid/upr-level cyclone forecast to lift along the St. Lawrence Valley, where 500 mb standardized negative height anomalies of 2-3 sigma are forecast. Although the underlying, modified Arctic surface high will not be particularly strong, 1022 mb this afternoon over the nrn Plains to 1018 mb by the time it reaches the lwr OH Valley at 00Z Fri, the associated airmass will remain a cold one. The advection of that cold air in the low-levels will result across cntl NC, with a nwly surface wind that will gust to around 20 mph as the high and airmass build east of the Appalachians. Despite abundant sunshine, high temperatures will be well below average, about 10 F so, and in the 40s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 218 PM Wednesday... Thursday night through Friday: Downstream of an anomalous mid-level ridge over the Pacific northwest, central NC will be located under the base of a northern stream trough. At the sfc, a high will anchor over Florida on Friday promoting swly return flow. Weak lift associated with increasing low-level WAA (and some divergence aloft) will likely generate a shield of light precipitation across the Ohio Valley late Thursday night that will spread sse through the TN Valley and into the southern Appalachians through Friday afternoon. Given the wnwly flow aloft, the anomalous moisture associated with this system should largely ring out over the western slopes of the Blue Ridge mountains and across the VA Piedmont. There's a chance the NC/VA border locations could see a some snow flakes, but even forecast soundings in that vicinity show dry sub-cloud layers and little saturation in the dendritic growth zone. Will maintain NBM's slight chance for snow showers for a few hours Friday morning, but not expecting any hazards with this system. Locations along the SC/NC border may see some sunshine Friday, and as such we could have a fairly steep temperature gradient Friday afternoon with highs in the lower 40s (N) to mid 50s (S). Overnight lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s are expected. Saturday through Monday: After a relatively mild (highs in the lower 50s) and dry Saturday, an anomalous upper trough will eject out of central Canada and dive southeast across the eastern US through Monday evening. Associated cold air will spill down the east coast with some of the coldest air of the season (850 mb temperatures will fall into the 2nd percentile by Sunday night). Highs on Sunday will reach the lower 40s (N) to upper 40s (S). The CAA will really ramp up Sunday night into Monday, with lows dropping into the mid to upper teens Sunday night/Monday morning. Forecast soundings still indicate good post-frontal mixing potential through sunrise Monday morning. If the cold air does indeed make it over the mountain early Monday morning, there could be a a brief period where some locations may flirt with Cold Weather Advisory apparent temperatures. Will continue to monitor as we get closer to this weekend, but regardless Monday morning should be quite chilly. With the frontal passage Sunday evening, there could be some chance for precipitation primarily along and east of US-1. Depending on the timing, some wintry mix may be possible. Overall though, precipitation chances look limited through this period. Tuesday through Wednesday: After another chilly night Monday into Tuesday (lows into the upper teens/low 20s), return sswly flow will develop pushing highs into the upper 40s Tuesday and lower 50s Wednesday. Another short-wave may approach next Wednesday which could be our next shot at any precipitation beyond this coming Sunday. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 1245 AM Thursday... 24 hour TAF period: Scattered to occasionally broken 5-8kft ceilings will accompany the passage of a mainly dry cold front that will move through the area through 09z Thy. Mostly sunny clear/sunny skies are expected during the day, followed by increasing mid and high level clouds during the evening and overnight hours. An unseasonably strong low-level jet will remain overhead, with an associated risk of low-level wind shear or mechanical turbulence tonight. Occasional nwly gustiness will be possible on Thu, strongest after daybreak and into early afternoon before diminishing. Outlook: An area of weak sfc low pressure and an attendant warm front will move into the area on Friday. The system may produce a band of light snow and/or flurries late Thursday night into early Friday, with sub-VFR restrictions possible, mainly across the northern terminals. Strong and gusty nnwly surface winds will result behind an Arctic cold front Sun afternoon and evening. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MWS NEAR TERM...MWS SHORT TERM...MWS LONG TERM...Luchetti AVIATION...CBL/MWS