####018011052#### FXUS63 KAPX 251959 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 359 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... -- Increasingly warm and breezy, remaining dry. -- Increasing confidence in rounds of showers and thunderstorms impacting northern Michigan from Friday night through Monday. -- Chance for severe thunderstorms, particularly later Saturday into Saturday night across northern lower Michigan. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... High pressure still focused just to our east over Ontario...with PV maxima dropping across the CWA attm. Light and variable winds with lake breeze development today...and seeing a very few cu pop up over NE Lower, where some upsloping may be aiding in lift and saturation, combined with some slight moisture advection off the lake as that weak bit of PV moves through. Expecting high pressure to remain over the area tonight...though return flow should rotate into the region going into Friday morning, and especially Friday afternoon, with increasing warmth aloft, as well as an increase in overall moisture. However...southeast flow hangs on into Friday as well, and antecedent dry air mass should preclude most, if not all, precip from reaching the ground over the region till beyond this period. Primary Forecast Concerns: Increasingly warm and breezy, remaining dry...Expecting temps aloft to increase through the day Friday, and with mixing up to around 850mb, think highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s are quite probable, especially considering we should remain largely clear...and temps will not fall as much tonight as they did last night. With better downsloping over NW Lower...think some upper 60s could be possible as well...though I do have to admit that we should start to get better mid/high cloud coverage into that area with time in the afternoon. Current dry air mass will take time to saturate...and suspect this may hold off even some of the cloud cover until later in the afternoon/evening; even less can be said for precip, which should hold off till Friday night and beyond. Some suggestion that another lobe of lower dewpoints could pivot over the region from north to south Friday, which could allow for afternoon RHs to fall even further below the usual 25 percent criteria for fire weather thresholds. Have not gone quite this aggressive, but have elected to keep dewpoints (and subsequently, RHs) a touch lower even so. Additional concerns for fire weather as pressure gradient begins to strengthen with system tracking across the Plains; expecting 5-10kts sustained winds, which could gust as high as 20-25kts by evening. Admittedly, this is more of a warm advection setup for winds, which typically would not be as favorable for gustiness...though do think the antecedent dry air mass and good potential for mixing could aid in better gusts this time around...at least, while the sun is out. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Pattern Synopsis / Forecast: Active baroclinic zone will really get its act together over the course of the weekend as a complex setup of shortwaves and associated surface low pressure centers / frontal boundaries pass through the upper Great Lakes region, dispatching the dry influences of surface high pressure progged to be moving off the Atlantic coast of New England. The action begins Friday night as a surface warm front moves into the region, bringing a round of showers and potentially some thunder too. The next car in the metaphorical atmospheric train will be surface low pressure advancing east from Wisconsin into the U.P., drawing in a warmer and potentially much more unstable airmass before a surface cold frontal boundary moves into the region and sparks off another chance for showers and storms late Saturday, some of which could be strong to severe. This frontal boundary largely becomes stationary over the region by Sunday, continuing unsettled weather potential Sunday into Monday as yet another low pressure center works into the Great Lakes. The passage of this low pressure center should mark the end of the active stretch of weather, with surface high pressure progged to intrude into the Great Lakes as we move closer to midweek. Primary Forecast Concerns: Friday Night Convection: Despite warm / moist advection moving into the region, there will be some barriers to overcome as we progress into the overnight hours. Stout low level dry layer will impede the initial advances of a stratiform rain plume well ahead of the surface warm frontal boundary. It wouldn't be overly surprising for this plume to pass through the region with more of a whimper considering progged soundings display dewpoint depressions as high as 30 Celsius across the southwest part of the CWA around 00z Saturday. The most appreciable rainfall from this frontal passage will come later in the overnight when steepening lapse rates aloft (up to 7 Celsius / km) and 850mb warm advection drive elevated instability associated with the warm front. In theory, would like to see steeper lapse rates to drive instability up for better thunder coverage, but the moistening airmass should provide better rainfall potential for places that see repeated shower passages Friday night regardless. While instability is low (generally 100-400 J/kg), suppose an embedded rumble of thunder or two cannot be ruled out. Overall, looks like most spots probably see a general 0.25" or less Friday night, though localized areas that see repeated downpours could observe 0.75"+. At this time, severe weather potential looks quite low Friday night into Saturday morning. Saturday - Saturday Night: Uncertainty begins to riddle the forecast as we progress into Saturday, particularly with respect to the position of the surface warm frontal boundary. Most guidance has the surface warm front clearing the Straits and stalling out somewhere between the Bridge and the Soo, but there is a modest amount of guidance that has the front stalling out around the M-32 area. The former solution would generate more clearing / destabilization potential amid warmer temperatures across northern lower into the day Saturday, possibly as high as the upper 70s for some, while the latter solution brings about a cloudier and cooler solution (upper 50s and lower 60s) with a stable layer in the low levels and thus suppresses the majority of surface based convection to the south and west. Considering favorable low pressure position based off severe climo for northern Michigan and the 500mb ridge axis located just to our east, this in theory should allow for an easier warm frontal passage, despite the suppressing efforts of the colder Great Lakes. In the event that this solution pans out, this opens a Pandora's Box of convective potential across the region. Being in the vicinity of the triple point of the system will lead to favorable dynamics aloft to contribute to severe weather potential later Saturday into Saturday night as the surface low and associated cold front move into the region. Bulk shear increases considerably with the intrusion of the triple point (as high as 40-50kts). In addition, SRH values balloon above 200 m^2/s^2, indicating ample potential for rotating updrafts to materialize with any surface based storm that initiates. The final thing that will need to come together will be the maintenance of surface / low level moisture. Guidance wants to keep dewpoints well into the 50s and even into the lower 60s, which would lower cloud bases and bypass the potential suppressing nature of warmer air aloft in the profile. If we can achieve the higher end of this dewpoint range, coupled with the other aforementioned favorable dynamics, this could lead to all hazards being on the table Saturday evening / early overnight, with heavy emphasis on wind and hail (non-zero chance for these hazards to be locally significant if a more discrete / supercellular storm mode can be realized). Tornadic activity will be somewhat questionable owing to shear vectors being more parallel to the cold front as opposed to normal to the boundary as it approaches northern Michigan (thus leading to the eventual stationary nature of the front), but risk still remains non-zero. Additionally, the parallel relationship of shear vectors and frontal orientation could set up a heavy rain sequence with any potential training thunderstorms as PWATs swell to 1.00-1.25 (200-300% of climo normal). This setup has a very low floor, but a high ceiling that can't be overlooked despite ongoing forecast uncertainty. This is reflected by SPC already electing to place northern lower Michigan within the Day 3 Slight Risk (level 2/5) for the conditional threat of severe weather. Numerous more updates are to be had in the coming forecast cycles as details on the evolution of this sequence become clearer. Rest of the Period: The cold front will stall out overhead and become stationary by Sunday, and with additional disturbances expected to ride this area of forcing, this spells additional rounds of showers and storms at times Sunday into Monday, bringing additional rainfall. Eventually, low pressure will pass through the region and the stalled front will be forced eastward by intruding high pressure. By Tuesday, conditions look to be drier but still on the mild side, with highs in the upper 50s to upper 60s and lows generally in the 40s. One final note- considering that we will be dealing with warm daytime temperatures and mild nights coupled with mild temperatures accompanying rainfall, this should spell the arrival of spring greenup in the next week or so, particularly across northern lower Michigan. This could open the door for any frost / freeze impacts beyond the forecast period to be amplified. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... High pressure in the area today with generally clear skies...though a few high based cu has been developing over NE Lower near APN, Y31 in the last couple hours. Won't be impossible to see these develop elsewhere...but for now anticipate skies remain clear at TAF sites into Friday morning. Winds today largely 10-15kts from the southeast...except lake breeze has developed at MBL and TVC, with onshore winds developing accordingly. Expecting light winds tonight...with land breezes again, esp at MBL and perhaps APN. Winds strengthen toward end of TAF period, and esp beyond. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...FEF LONG TERM...HAD AVIATION...FEF ####018006362#### FXUS62 KRAH 252000 RRA AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 400 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will dominate the eastern United States through the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 150 PM Thursday... Surface high pressure is currently centered over southeastern Ontario. Multiple runs of the HRRR and NAM nest have shown a sea breeze developing along the coastline with some showers moving inland from the breeze, and more recent runs have shown some isolated showers making their way as far inland as Sampson and Wayne Counties. Have added a slight chance of showers to southern/eastern portions of those counties during the late afternoon into the early evening, although the rest of the forecast will be dry. Winds will generally be out of the northeast through the next 24-30 hours, and it appears that the moist flow off the Atlantic Ocean will bring a good amount of low clouds into the region overnight, some of which are now beginning to move onshore around Norfolk. The insulating effect of the clouds should generally balance out the cold advection from the northerly flow, leaving overnight temperatures similar to last night's values, ranging from the mid 40s to the mid 50s. Skies should be mostly cloudy around sunrise on Friday, with some partial clearing occurring by late morning across southern and eastern portions of the forecast area. However, mostly cloudy skies are likely to remain for much of the day from Raleigh to the north and west. High temperatures will be slightly cooler on Friday compared to today, with highs ranging from the mid 60s to the mid 70s. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 235 PM Thursday... Mid-level ridging will continue to move over the southeast Friday night with continued wnwly flow over central NC. In the lower levels, light esely flow will continue through Saturday morning. At the sfc, a warm frontal zone draped over the deep south/TN valley will move north into Ohio Valley through Saturday morning. Some patchy, light rain associated with this feature may spill over into the Triad for a few hours Friday night, but overall the area should remain dry. Higher POPs appear more likely across the NC foothills and eastern slopes of the mountains. Otherwise, expect cloudy conditions to persist through much of Saturday. Dry conditions are then expected to continue on Sunday under ridging aloft. Temperature wise, Saturday will remain a bit cooler in the lower to mid 70s. Sfc flow will turn more sswly on Sunday warming temps closer to around 80. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 355 PM Thursday... Central NC will be under the influence of a high-amplitude mid/upper ridge as it slowly migrates across the eastern US on Sunday and Monday. At the surface, western Atlantic high pressure will weaken and shift south from off the NC coast on Sunday to off the GA/SC coast by Monday, shifting the surface flow to a S/SW direction. This will bring mostly sunny skies and very warm temperatures, with highs increasing from upper-70s to lower-80s on Sunday to mid-to-upper-80s on Monday. Lows will be in the mid-50s to 60. While these temperatures won't break any records, they are still 5-15 degrees above normal. Clouds and precipitation chances will increase on Tuesday as the ridge gets replaced by a shortwave trough approaching from the west, reaching the Appalachians by Tuesday evening. However, the shortwave doesn't look too impressive and model QPF is on the light side. Furthermore, models now show the actual synoptic cold front may not make it to central NC, with only the lingering prefrontal surface trough remaining and no temperature drop. So continue just afternoon/evening slight to low chance POPs in the north and west, while the ridge should continue to suppress convection in the east. Isolated convection may continue on Wednesday from the lingering surface trough and outflow boundaries, and by this time it could be across the whole area as the ridge shifts farther offshore. Coverage still doesn't look too great with a lack of synoptic forcing. Instability may be sufficient for a few storms Tuesday and Wednesday with a very warm air mass in place, as highs still reach the mid-to- upper-80s. The next southern stream trough and cold front will move into the central US on Thursday, and timing has slowed down on the GFS and ECMWF compared to prior runs. This favors continued warm temperatures with isolated shower/storm chances at best. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 150 PM Thursday... TAF period: Diurnal cumulus is sprouting over much of the forecast area, although it appears that all cloud bases are VFR. At this time think that all sites should remain VFR through midnight. After midnight, northeasterly flow will allow low-level saturated air to move into the region, and MVFR cigs are expected to spread across all terminals between 06Z-10Z. Think there should be a few hour period of IFR cigs around sunrise at RWI, but think that ceilings will remain MVFR elsewhere (although guidance has been trending lower). These clouds will begin to lift by mid-morning so that RDU/FAY/RWI will rise to VFR conditions by the end of the 18Z TAF period, but INT/GSO should still have restrictions. Wind will be relatively steady state through the 24 hours out of the northeast at 5-10 kt for all sites. Outlook: Restrictions will likely persist at INT/GSO Friday afternoon, then restrictions appear likely to extend back southeast across the rest of the terminals Friday night into Saturday morning. After this, conditions should be VFR. In addition, a chance of rain cannot be ruled out at INT/GSO Friday night, with another chance of rain possible Tuesday afternoon at INT/GSO. Otherwise conditions should be dry. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Green NEAR TERM...Green SHORT TERM...Luchetti LONG TERM...Danco AVIATION...Green ####018005222#### FXUS64 KEWX 252000 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 300 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Friday night) Issued at 214 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 The latest GOES 16 Water Vapor imagery places a mid-level low over the Four Corners, resulting in southwest flow bringing plenty of Pacific moisture our way in the mid levels. At the surface, a dryline remains situated well west of our region, allowing surface dewpoints to surge into the upper 60s to lower 70s area wide. As a result, low clouds will be tough to break today, with some drizzle and perhaps a rain shower or two possible through the early evening hours. Afternoon highs today are expected to top out in the lower 90s over the Rio Grande Plains, along with 80s everywhere else. For tonight, some storms are expected to develop over the Hill Country and Southern Edwards Plateau and slide south and eastward through late Friday morning. At this time, the severe threat is someone limited by cap strength and a lack of daytime heating, however, some redevelopment is possible by the afternoon/early evening hours. Hi-res guidance has struggled with this messy environment over the last couple of days and that trend looks to continue through the short term period. In any matter, a Marginal Risk for severe storms is in place for most of the CWA, excluding just Val Verde County and the Coastal Plains. As far as the temperatures go, the Rio Grande Plains are expected to begin a bit of a hot stretch starting Friday. Highs will top out in the mid to upper 90s with elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions expected over Val Verde County by the afternoon hours. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 214 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 A potentially active weather period still appears on the horizon Saturday evening into early Sunday morning. The dryline will likely make a brief eastward push late Saturday afternoon/early evening which may help convection develop over portions of the southern Edwards Plateau. Initially, the setup favors isolated supercells, with all modes of severe weather possible. A stronger eastward push of the dryline is anticipated early Sunday morning as an upper level trough axis and Pacific cold front approach from the west. This should then favor convection developing into more of a linear mode across the Hill Country, with models showing some weakening of convection while approaching the I-35 corridor Sunday morning. We will also need to watch the afternoon hours for some potential breaks in the cloud cover and heating to help destabilize the atmosphere along the dryline. SPC outlooks place the Hill Country and portions of the southern Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande in a Level 2 out of 5 risk for severe storms Saturday night into Sunday morning, with a Level 1 of 5 risk in place for most of the remainder of south central Texas. The dryline will retreat westward Sunday evening into Monday morning as quasi-zonal flow aloft continues. Another upper level trough looks to approach from the west during the middle of the upcoming week. We will continue to mention low-end rain chances across most areas and will refine the forecast as models begin to converge on timing of when the next upper level system will impact the region. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1220 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 Abundant surface moisture will continue to result in less than ideal flying conditions early this afternoon, along with breezy winds from 140-180 at 15-20 kts, gusting to 25-30 kts. We should see VFR ceilings beyond 19Z and continue through 02-03Z at AUS, SAT, and SSF before MVFR returns in advance of a chance at TSRA at the terminals between 09Z and 17Z Friday. DRT should remain dry, but some MVFR cigs look like a decent bet between 07Z-18Z Friday. Overall, confidence is highest in TSRA at AUS, but opted for PROB30 groups at SAT and SSF as well, as confidence is coverage is the lowest, and if storms do indeed form further south, we want to have the possibility covered. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 71 82 71 86 / 10 50 10 20 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 71 82 71 85 / 10 50 10 10 New Braunfels Muni Airport 71 84 71 86 / 10 40 10 20 Burnet Muni Airport 69 80 69 82 / 20 50 10 20 Del Rio Intl Airport 74 97 73 98 / 10 0 10 10 Georgetown Muni Airport 70 81 71 84 / 10 50 10 20 Hondo Muni Airport 70 87 71 89 / 20 20 10 20 San Marcos Muni Airport 70 83 71 86 / 10 40 10 20 La Grange - Fayette Regional 72 84 73 85 / 0 30 10 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 71 84 71 85 / 20 30 10 20 Stinson Muni Airport 72 86 72 87 / 20 30 10 10 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Short-Term...MMM Long-Term...Platt Aviation...MMM ####018007186#### FXUS63 KDMX 252000 AFDDMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Des Moines IA 300 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... * Quiet to round out daytime hours today, giving way to first round of shower/storms tonight and an overall active period through the weekend. * Best severe weather threat W/SW Friday evening, with strongest threats for large hail and a few tornadoes. Primarily W/SW Iowa late afternoon/evening, then lifting NE. Currently SPC Enhanced Day 2 west of I-35. * Severe potential continues Sat/Sun, and at least partially dependent on previous rounds of convection. Including hydro threat Sat evening/night. Current SPC Slight Day 2 (Sat), SPC Day 4 15% (Sun). WPC ERO Slight Sat. * Quieter to begin next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 257 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 The calm before the storms today, so to speak. Aside from a few sprinkles/light rain W/SW this morning, dry conditions have prevailed across the state with highs into 60s and breezy SE winds. Overall dry conditions will continue into the evening before western trough exerts increasing influence across the Plains with surface low beginning to move off the Colorado Front Range. This will see southerly flow, moisture advection, and broad lift increase. While the surface front will lag behind, strong low to mid-level theta-e advection will yield elevated thunderstorm activity at/above an 850- 800mb warm nose during the overnight and into Friday morning before activity subsides as it slides eastward into less supportive air mass. Continue to expect these storms to remain sub-severe, though effective shear may be just supportive enough to allow a few storms to flirt with impactful hail. Nominally bolstered with RAP/HRRR soundings in western areas depicting up to around 1500 J/kg elevated CAPE. Any strong/severe concern would be over western areas with initial storms as upscale growth is expected with widespread lift ongoing and less supportive air mass east. During this time, surface winds will remain breezy, and increasing gusts, as surface low moves out into the Plains. Expect gusts into the 30s mph to continue overnight tonight. Activity will linger into the Friday morning hours, and slide eastward, leaving in its wake cloudy skies. Additional/continued theta-e advection may result in scattered non-severe shower/storm activity through the remainder of the morning and into the afternoon, as well as helping re-prime the environment for severe potential later Friday, as seen in the SPC Day 2 Enhanced broadly west of I-35. Primary window of concern Friday will begin around 21z in/around the Iowa-Nebraska border, and storms will move northeastward into the evening. Strongest threat does continue to look to be in the aforementioned Iowa-Nebraska border area as broad CAM guidance highlights a corridor of SBCAPE values of 2000-3000+ J/kg with nominal (~25 J/kg) to no CIN. Hodographs continue to strongly point towards organized convection with sweeping low level hodographs yielding 0-1km streamwiseness values around or in excess of 90% and moderate streamwise vorticity values of around 0.25/s. Wind fields above about 2km take on a less supportive overall structure, but should be strong enough to keep these storms vented. Add in CAMs consistently depicting 0-1km SRH values in excess of 200 m2/s2, and it becomes pretty apparent that a leading threat may be tornadoes, in conjunction with large hail. Threat will be greatest with initial storms, which are expect in eastern NE/KS areas around 21z, where above mentioned environment will be most supportive. As activity translates eastward late afternoon into evening, guidance is consistent in the environment slowly degrading with less supportive mid-level lapse rates eroding SB/MUCAPE. Even so, effective inflow wind fields will remain supportive of rotation, so tornadic activity and some hail cannot be ruled out as storms approach I-35 corridor around/after 00z. These storms will be moving relatively fast with progs of 40 to 50 kts. All in all, SPC Enhanced area appears to be in a good spot, if not a hare too far east. Phew. That's not all though with additional strong to severe storm potential expected into Saturday. Some of this will depend on where the surface boundary ends up laying across the state, with a SW to NE orientation expected as the upper level trough and surface low pass to the NW/N of the state early Saturday. In conjunction, another western trough will be inducing surface low development in the Colorado Front Range, and help initiate another round of convection over Central Plains. That activity may drift up into SW portions of the CWA in/around the warm front and would pose the greatest risk for traditional severe weather, with hail and tornadoes the primary risks with any supercellular/organized activity. Aside from that, additional activity in/along the surface front expected as LLJ further enhances Saturday night. Storm motion vectors roughly parallel with the front raise the eyebrow for potential hydrologic issues. Some synoptic and CAM guidance have pointed toward the potential for some areas picking up 3 to 5 inches or more. As hinted, location remains in flux with some uncertainty in final location of boundaries. SPC Day 3 Slight and WPC highlighting southern areas remain reasonably placed at this point in time. Another round of convection will move through Sunday as the second western trough and surface low eject and move northeastward across the Plains. Suffice it to say that additional severe weather potential exists with low tracks moving across western into central Iowa mid-day into the evening. Have not dove into substantial detail here with previously mentioned two rounds of greater focus and cascading effects from those rounds likely to affect Sunday potential to some degree. But again, do not sleep on Sunday potential, as the existing Day 4 SPC 15% is more than warranted, even with a quick casual look. Quieter to begin next week, with scattered/sporadic precipitation activity hinted late-end of next week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1232 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 Initial VFR conditions will give way to degrading cigs and periods of TSRA/SHRA. Primary degradation of flight conditions will occur after 06z as TSRA/SHRA develop and track northeastward. Expect all sites to see MVFR/IFR. Throughout, SE winds will be breezy, initially around 15 to 20 kts with limited wind gusts, then increasing to 20+ kts sustained and gusts into the lower 30s kts overnight and into Friday. Does appear possible periods of LLWS, but have withheld due to sporadic nature appears within guidance and soundings. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Curtis AVIATION...Curtis ####018004767#### FXHW60 PHFO 252001 AFDHFO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 1001 AM HST Thu Apr 25 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Strong trade winds will persist through today with a gradual decrease expected through early next week. As the trades weaken and veer toward the east-southeast this weekend, sea breezes will be possible across select leeward areas during the day. Afternoon clouds and scattered showers will be possible over interior and leeward areas. Meanwhile on the windward side, moderate to locally breezy trades will hold through the weekend with light passing showers. && .DISCUSSION... A 1030mb high far north of the state will maintain strong trade winds through today with a gradually decrease expected over the next few days as the high shifts further eastward and a trough develops northwest of the state. The developing trough will cause the winds to veer toward the east-southeast on Saturday, which will decrease the winds across leeward areas of the smaller islands due to shadowing from the Big Island. A hybrid wind pattern is expected over the weekend over leeward areas of the smaller islands with a mix of easterly trade winds and sea breezes. Meanwhile for the windward areas, moderate to locally breezy trade winds are expected this weekend. As the trough moves closer to the state early next week, winds will weaken further and sea breezes will develop across more areas. As far as precipitation, overall rainfall amounts will be light with no significant moisture moving through next week. Currently, radar is showing a few light showers over windward areas this morning, but we should see shower activity decrease through the day today as a drier air mass moves in during the day today. A subtle increase of moisture is expected late tonight into Friday, which should bring scattered showers across the state primarily over windward areas. Over the weekend, with sea breezes developing during the day across select leeward areas, a few afternoon showers will be possible over leeward and interior areas. But with precipitable water values holding around normal (1.2 inches), rainfall amounts will remain at light to moderate amounts at best. && .AVIATION... Breezy to locally windy trade winds will continue through Friday. Clouds and showers will continue to favor windward and mauka areas, with isolated showers occasionally spilling over to leeward areas...periodic MVFR conditions will be possible with this activity. Otherwise, VFR conditions will generally prevail, especially during the daytime hours. AIRMET Tango is in effect for moderate low-level turb downwind of the terrain for all islands. These conditions may improve heading into Friday. && .MARINE... A 1030 mb surface high northeast of the state, will slowly drift eastward over the next several days. This feature will continue to help drive strong to locally near gale east northeasterly trade winds across the islands through the remainder of today and into tonight. Low pressure is forecast to develop well northwest of Hawaii on Friday and remain through this weekend and into early next week. In response, easterly winds will gradually weaken to light to moderate and shift slightly out of the east southeast. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) for winds and rough seas continues for all Hawaiian coastal waters through Friday morning. As trades ease beyond Friday, the SCA may be scaled back to some of the typical windier waters of Maui County and the Big Island. Surf heights will remain below advisory thresholds for all shores through the forecast period. Hanalei buoy (51208) is showing signs of a new medium period northwest swell filling in. Expect surf to rise locally through the afternoon and peak tonight. Another small, medium period northwest pulse will enter the waters Friday night, peak Saturday, and subside Sunday. Expect these swells to produce small surf along north and northwest facing beaches. Persistent trades will continue to produce choppy, rough surf through the rest of the week along east facing beaches. By this weekend, weakening trades will allow this surf to lower and hold into early next week. Small background southerly swell, observed this morning at Barbers Point Buoy (51212) as 2 feet 14 seconds, will lead to small surf along south facing beaches through the forecast period. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Friday for all Hawaiian waters- && $$ DISCUSSION...Kino AVIATION...Farris MARINE...Thomas/Vaughan ####018010644#### FXUS63 KMQT 252002 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 402 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Borderline elevated fire weather conditions continue this afternoon with minimum relative humidities around 20-25 percent across much of the area and wind gusts remaining mainly below 15 mph. - Borderline to elevated fire weather conditions are expected Friday as RHs dip into the mid 20 to 30%, temps get into the mid 50s to low 60s, and S to SE'rly winds gust up to as high as 25 mph over the higher elevations and downslope areas. - Two low pressure systems, one this weekend and another into early next week, bring rain showers and thunderstorms across our area. More of the rainfall arrives with the second low. - There is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms Saturday, with the greatest chances over the south central and east. The severe weather threats are marginally severe hail and winds. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 323 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024 RAP analysis shows the high pressure is currently centered over southern Ontario, extending over the Great Lakes Basin with mid level ridging over the Plains and a trough over the southwestern U.S.. WV imagery shows a significantly dry air mass over the CWA which is yielding clear skies and warmer than normal temps. With the high pressure shifting east through tonight, southeast flow will continue to keep the east cooler. An easterly wind component has been observed along Lake Superior, resulting from the lake breeze component, keeping those along the immediate lakeshore cooler. Highs in the east are expected to peak in the upper 40s to mid 50s this afternoon with low 50s to low 60s over the west; some mid 60s are possible in the far west where there is downsloping flow. Mixing has lowered RHs into the 20% range this afternoon save for areas with onshore flow off Lake Michigan, but luckily wind gusts are expected to continue mainly below 15 mph as winds aloft are also light. This will continue borderline elevated fire weather conditions this afternoon over the east and into the early evening hours over the west. Be mindful of burn restrictions. The trough over the southwest takes a negative tilt tonight as it lifts northeast into NE/KS. With sfc high pressure and mid level ridging still over the Great Lakes, the dry weather under clear skies continues. While better subsidence will be located well east of the UP, radiative cooling should bring lows into the mid 20s to upper 30s with colder temps in the east. Light southeast winds continue, stronger over the west where there is downsloping. Model soundings indicate that the nocturnal inversion layer should prevent stronger winds aloft from mixing down until late tonight/early Friday morning over the far west, keeping gusts mainly below 20 mph until Friday morning. Meanwhile, a low pressure system set to impact the UP this weekend associated with the trough will be developing in the lee of the central Rockies. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 402 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024 The high pressure moves out Friday and gives way to a more active period this weekend through next week, with rain showers and thunderstorms moving into the far west as soon as late Friday afternoon/early Friday evening. There is a marginal risk for some severe weather Saturday as showers and thunderstorms continue across our area while the low pressure system moves into Lake Superior. Behind this low, a second low pressure system brings more showers and thunderstorms back across the region early next week. While it looks like we will receive a quick reprieve from rainfall come next Tuesday, more shortwave lows look to impact our area by the end of the extended period. The dry weather continues into the first half of Friday as the high pressure responsible continues to leave the area for the Atlantic off of the New England coast. In it's wake, a 986mb low over the Central Plains lifts towards Lake Superior throughout the day, increasing cloud cover across the U.P. by the afternoon hours. With the sun being out even into the early afternoon hours over the west though, and with the antecedent dry air conditions near the surface, thinking the RHs will bottom out to the mid 20 percents to around 30 percent across the interior areas of the U.P. by early Friday afternoon. In addition, with winds increasing from the south to southeast ahead of the approaching low to 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph in the higher elevations and downslope areas, we could see borderline to elevated fire weather conditions across the area Friday as temps will be fairly similar to today. Therefore, follow all burn restrictions put out by your local DNRs on Friday. As the warm front of the low starts moving into the far west Friday afternoon, we begin seeing some showers and thunderstorms developing. As the antecedent dry air in the lower levels finally gives way to the precipitation aloft, the rain showers and thunderstorms spread into the rest of the U.P. from west to east throughout the rest of Friday night. As the low's center looks to enter into far western Lake Superior Saturday morning, a dry slot behind the warm front looks to move over our neck-of-the-woods. This will reduce the shower and thunderstorm activity across the area Saturday morning, and could even open up some spots of sunshine in the cloud cover. Should we see some patches of sunshine in the clouds Saturday, then expect the chances for severe weather to increase, particularly across the south central and east. Currently, most of the CAMs has severe thunderstorms missing our CWA to the south and east of us. However, with MUCAPEs around 1000 J/kg in the GFS and 2000 J/kg in the NAM, and with 0-6 km bulk shear being around 50 kts, severe weather is certainly a possibility up here Saturday (10 to 15% chance of seeing marginally severe hail and/or wind). The only limiting factor will be the uplift; thus, if we get some breaks in the clouds Saturday, expect our severe weather chances to increase. In addition to the severe weather, we could also see some heavy rainfall in some isolated spots, even though the model consensus keeps the heaviest precipitation amounts out of our area Saturday through Saturday night. Therefore, while it is certainly not expected, there is a small chance (20 to 30% chance) that some low-lying poor drainage areas could see some localized flash flooding should multiple storms pass over. A quick reprieve from the precipitation could (30 to 40% chance) come early Sunday morning before more rainfall moves over the area the rest of Sunday through Monday as a second low pressure system lifts through the Upper Midwest. While bulk shear values are greater Sunday, there is almost no CAPE to work with. Therefore, no severe weather is expected Sunday through Sunday night as the warm front passes through our area. That being said, the models do show higher QPF totals, with many areas possibly receiving over an inch of rainfall. Therefore, this second low pressure system is the one most likely to bring a soaking rainfall to our area these next several days. In addition, I'm thinking the chances for flash flooding will be ever so slightly higher over the poor drainage areas. As we move into Monday and Monday night, the cold front of the low moves through Upper Michigan, bringing additional rainfall to the area. Given that we would then be under the warm sector of the low ahead of the cold front, with 0-6 km bulk shears near 45 kts and MUCAPEs currently near 500 to 1000 J/kg, severe weather could (10% chance) be a possibility Monday. The rainfall finally leaves the east Monday night as weak ridging builds in from the west. We look to get a quick reprieve from the rainfall next Tuesday as high pressure ridging quickly slides through the Upper Midwest. However, model guidance brings a shortwave low from the Northern U.S. Rockies back across us come Tuesday night/Wednesday. As we look ahead beyond the extended period, it appears that an active weather pattern will continue, as the CPC still has above normal chances for precipitation and above normal chances for temps for the 8 to 14 day period. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 131 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024 With high pressure currently centered over southern Ontario shifting east toward southern Quebec, VFR conditions will continue at all sites through the 18Z TAF period. Winds will be generally light through most of tonight, mainly staying under 10 kts. Late tonight, increasing winds above nocturnal inversion may lead to conditions approaching LLWS criteria at IWD/CMX. Opted to add this into the IWD TAF where there is the highest confidence; will continue to monitor this with future TAF issuances. High clouds move in Friday morning ahead of the next system with some gusty south to southeast winds up to 20-25 kts. && .MARINE... Issued at 301 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024 High pressure over the Great Lakes will keep winds below 20 kts into this evening. Southeast winds will increase to around 20 kts tonight with southeast/east to 20-30 kts Friday and Friday night; the strongest winds are expected along the U.S. Canadian border waters of eastern Lake Superior. The low pressure then tracks northeast across the lake late in the day Saturday into Saturday night resulting in 20-30 kt north winds Saturday night becoming northeast on Sunday behind the low pressure system. Northeast winds remain around 20-30 knots through Sunday night with a few gale force gusts to 35 knots possible near Isle Royale and across the west half of Lake Superior. Another low pressure system moves through the Upper Great Lakes Monday into Monday night with winds up to 30 knots yielding west winds behind the low that are expected to diminish back below 20 kts by Tuesday. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Jablonski LONG TERM...TAP AVIATION...Jablonski MARINE...07