####018005761#### FXUS63 KFGF 092110 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 310 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Very difficult travel conditions today into tonight due to snow and ice covered roads, reduced visibility from heavy snow rates and blowing snow, as well as gusty winds. Lingering impacts from snow showers and blowing snow are expected tonight into early Wednesday. - Winds increase this afternoon, with gusts of 50 mph or higher, in far southeast North Dakota. Areas with newly fallen snow on the ground, or actively falling, will see visibility reductions. Icy roads combined with strong winds may make for very hazardous travel within portions of eastern North Dakota. - Much colder temperatures will arrive late week, with a 80 percent chance for wind chills to drop to -30 or colder. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 310 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 ...Synopsis... After the passing of the current stronger clipper, the large scale pattern continues to be dominated by northwest flow with an additional (weaker) clipper passing through the region Wednesday night into Thursday. This brings medium chances for light snow and lower probabilities for minor (advisory) impacts as probabilities for 3"+ snowfall are less than 20%. Falling heights/deepening mid/upper lows in Canada towards Hudson Bay will bring a series of arctic fronts through the region during the second half of the week into the weekend along with the coldest air of the season so far. ...Winter Storm Impacts Ongoing... The current strong clipper continues to bring impacts resulting in difficult travel across our CWA. The mid level wave is centered over our CWA, with the surface low over SE ND/NE SD while places the stronger gradient and speed max to our west and south through this evening. This has also resulted in much lower winds than previously forecast across our north, with the best potential for higher gusts closer to the SD state line this evening. Max Tw aloft is below freezing where most precipitation is occuring, though far southeast ND is still warmer with a rain/snow mix and a narrow corridor where freezing rain may still be lingering (southwest of Cass County). The most organized area of snow and embedded heavy snow banding is extending from northeast ND into northwest and towards west central MN currently, with decreasing trends to the west of this. Heavier rates within this area are ranging from 0.5 to 1.5"/hr based on radar estimates. As the mid level wave continues southeast the stronger forcing will exit the region resulting in decreasing intensity of lingering snow. The general progression favors this more organized area of snow weakening through the rest of the afternoon and early evening, however CAA and speed shear aloft in the mixed layer will keep lingering snow showers over the region. Wind impacts and the threat for widespread blowing snow/whiteout is greatly diminished due to the current track for much of our area, however, visibility reductions are still anticipated just where snow showers track and rates still potentially approach 0.5/hr. The coverage of which may continue to decrease after midnight becoming less and less of a concern as winds continue to decrease through Wednesday morning. Weather related impacts thus may linger, though the impact/risk may eventually be more in line with advisory (minor) or sub advisory categories overnight into the morning hours Wednesday. We'll monitor and adjust products accordingly dependent on coverage. ...High winds/slick travel impacts... Where higher winds actually occur in the far southeast (towards the SD border) there is a risk for increased travel impacts especially where roads are already slick as higher profile/light weight vehicles may be prone to jostling on the slick roads. This is something to keep in mind if you are traveling this afternoon through this evening when winds begin to increase. ...Arctic air and cold/wind chills impacts... Late this week arctic air begins to arrive and the cold air mass over the weekend will support lows in the negative teens and 20s, and there is a strong signal for at least advisory (-30) wind chills. Depending on wind speeds warning criteria (-40) may be met with increasing chances particularly north of Highway 2. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 124 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 Aviation impacts continue as a result of a winter storm moving across eastern ND and northwest MN, with IFR conditions prevailing into the evening and brief VLIFR conditions where heavy snow occurs. Blowing snow and lingering snow showers could keep MVFR conditions lingering into Wednesday morning, though there should be gradual improving trends in visibility as winds decrease and shower coverage diminishes. MVFR ceilings are more likely to linger though after snow ends. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM CST Wednesday for NDZ007-008- 015-016-026-027-029-030-054. Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Wednesday for NDZ006- 014-024-028-038-039-049-052-053. High Wind Warning until 6 AM CST Wednesday for NDZ038-049-052- 053. MN...Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM CST Wednesday for MNZ001>004- 007-008-013>017-022>024-027-028-031-032. Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Wednesday for MNZ005- 006-009-029-030-040. && $$ DISCUSSION...DJR AVIATION...DJR ####018010754#### FXUS63 KDTX 092111 AFDDTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 411 PM EST Tue Dec 9 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - A Winter Weather Advisory is now in effect tonight through Wednesday afternoon north of M-46. Snowfall totals of 3 to 6 inches are expected. - Areas south of M-59 will see a changeover to rain Wednesday morning that keeps snowfall totals in the 1 to 4 inch range. - Snow tapers off Wednesday afternoon with temperatures dropping into the teens Thursday morning. - Active pattern continues late this week-weekend with potential for additional round of light accumulating snow and sub-zero morning wind chills. && .DISCUSSION... Aside from some lingering snow showers/freezing drizzle across the north, main forecast update this afternoon was the southward expansion of the Winter Weather Advisory down to the I-69 corridor. The 12z model suite showed a notable southward shift in the surface low track, especially in the hi-res data, with the low pressure center shifting as far as 200 miles south compared to previous cycles. This draws the freezing line down toward the I-69/M-59 corridors, allowing a longer duration of snow with lower chances of rain mixing in across the Saginaw Valley/Thumb region. Details discussed below: 1. Areas along/north of the M-46 corridor: A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect, with snowfall forecasts trending up. With the track of the surface low now projected to be along/just south of this corridor, it is positioned favorably in the northern quadrants of the low to see all snow for a longer duration. Further, there is banding potential given the strong convergence signature along the warm front and steep mid-level lapse rates (3-6km AGL lapse rates over 7 C/km) that would act to constrict and strengthen the frontal circulation. Peak snowfall rates of an inch per hour are possible, primarily between midnight to 6am, with snowfall totals of 3 to 6 inches likely. If banding does develop, we will come close to the 6"/9 hr Warning threshold (e.g. 12z.HRRR solution). A short-fused upgrade to a warning may be needed as observations warrant, especially given that these areas have fallen short of forecast highs this afternoon (still in the upper 20s vs low 30s forecast). 2. I-69/M-59 corridor: The Winter Weather Advisory has been expanded to include counties along the I-69 corridor (including cities of Owosso, Flint, Lapeer, Port Huron). Southern shift of the freezing line supports a longer duration snow with wet bulb zero heights holding aob 2 kft for the majority of the precipitation event. A brief transition to rain is possible, timed around the morning commute, before changing back to snow mid-day as the system moves into Ontario and its cold front settles through the cwa. Rates in excess of a half inch per hour will be plausible, with a high liquid content to the snow (wet snow) as temperatures are near the freezing mark (31- 33 degrees likely). The slight elevation difference of the Irish Hills may warrant additional southward expansion to the advisory into Oakland County, where projected snowfall totals are in the 2-4 inch range. 3. South of M-59 to the Ohio border: no headlines are in effect as there is still confidence in a transition from snow to rain early Wednesday morning. This cuts down on snowfall totals toward 1-2", and will help limit impacts as the changeover is anticipated prior to the morning commute. The period of snow p-type still could see rates of a half inch per hour to result in quick accumulations, although with a melting/compaction component given the warm temps. A lull in precip is expected in the warm sector Wednesday morning as temperatures climb into the mid-30s before falling in the afternoon as the low drags its cold front through Lower Michigan. This will support a changeover back to snow as the system's cold front settles through Lower Michigan, with an additional dusting of snow possible Wed afternoon. Synoptic precipitation tapers off Wednesday afternoon as the low pushes further into Ontario, leaving northwest flow in its wake that becomes breezy (30-35 mph gusts). Robust mid-level dry slot strips most of the moisture from the DGZ to prevent lake effect activity from surviving this far away from the lakes Wed evening. The one exception will be near the Lake Huron shoreline where lake effect snow showers may linger through the evening. Temperatures fall below freezing by early evening and continue to plummet into the teens by Thursday morning as the thermal trough clips across Ontario. Any residual water (storm total liquid of 0.4-0.6 for reference) will freeze given these temperatures. Wind chills in the single digits are expected Thursday morning. Quieter conditions are in store Thursday as high pressure builds briefly into the Ohio Valley, but the broad longwave troughing pattern remains a favorable storm track for additional clipper systems and arctic air late week-this weekend. Additional snowfall accumulations and sub-zero wind chills are the main concern. && .MARINE... Strong southerly winds of 20 to 30 knots this afternoon over the Central Great Lakes. Isolated/stray gusts of 32-35 knots even reported by a couple ships over Lake Huron. A surface trough tracking through will allow for winds to diminish and veer to the southwest-west this evening, as milder air also streams in. A larger and stronger low pressure system remains on track to move through Lower Michigan tonight into Wednesday, producing widespread snow and even rain over Lake St. Clair and Lake Erie. The southwest low level jet ahead of the low looks to be very strong (40+ at 925 MB/50+ knots at 850 MB) toward the southern Michigan border. Still a very difficult call on the near lake surface stability over over the nearshore waters of western Lake Erie, as peak south-southwest winds look to be around 12z Wednesday. With the water temp near freezing over the nearshore waters and surface dew pts rising into the low to mid 30s, anticipate just enough limited mixing to keep gusts to gales less than 3 hours, as winds also look to be more southwest/offshore. As usual with offshore flow nearing gales, there will be heighten concern for low water conditions across the western basin of Lake Erie. Rush of cold air behind the passage of the low in the afternoon will then support strong northerly winds Wednesday afternoon and early Wednesday evening. There is now another model support to expected frequent gusts to marginal gales over most of southern Lake Huron, and will go ahead with a gale warning. 850 MB temps lowering to -16 C over northern Lake Huron will promote deep mixing and lake induced troughing, which should keep gusts to gales going over the open waters of Lake Huron, at least through midnight, before winds gradually diminish through the rest of the night into Thursday morning. However, a 500 MB low tracking south along the Ontario/Quebec border will re-enforce the cold air, and should maintain sufficient mixing/gradient over Lake Huron to support gusts in the 25 to 30 knot range out of the northwest during Thursday. Surface ridge building in for Thursday evening/night will lead to much lighter winds, which should linger into Friday as a wave of low pressure track through the Ohio Valley. None-the-less, an Arctic front is on track to move through Friday night, with sporadic gusts to gales possible over Lake Huron during the weekend as 850 MB temps plummet to -20 C, supporting snow squalls and freezing spray as well. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 1255 PM EST Tue Dec 9 2025 AVIATION... MVFR ceilings dominate the afternoon period in the wake of the morning clipper with low chances for patchy freezing drizzle or mist mainly limited to FNT and MBS where low-level moisture is more abundant. The next system is quick to arrive later this evening, bringing widespread normal to wet snow that becomes briefly heavy between 03 and 09z. IFR to LIFR conditions are likely during this window and into early Wednesday. Model data has trended colder with this system, so snow will be the primary precip type for most locations, though Detroit sites are still expected to transition to a wet snow/rain mix Wednesday morning. The center of the low tracks west-east along the I-69 to M-59 corridor Wednesday morning, maintaining IFR to LIFR conditions and SW gusty winds across the Detroit sites. A southward moving cold front sweeps across the area Wednesday morning, changing snow character to more showery and producing gusty north to northwest wind. Snow showers gradually taper off to flurries through Wednesday afternoon. For DTW...Heaviest snowfall rates and LIFR conditions are favored between 04 and 09z tonight. Transition timing to rain or rain/snow mix still carries some uncertainty and may be delayed from the current forecast if the colder trend continues with this system. Snow showers then become favored after 13z with decreasing probability for precip through the late morning and afternoon. The wind shift to NW is currently expected between 17 and 19Z Wednesday. DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * High for ceiling at or below 5000 ft through the forecast period. * High for precipitation type as snow this evening and overnight. Medium for a transition to rain or rain/snow early Wednesday, then high for a transition back to snow later Wednesday morning. * Low for ceiling/visibility at or below 200 ft / 1/2 mile overnight. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM EST Wednesday for MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063. Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Thursday for LHZ422-443. Gale Warning from 11 AM Wednesday to 3 AM EST Thursday for LHZ363- 462>464. Gale Warning from 11 AM to 11 PM EST Wednesday for LHZ421-441-442. Lake St Clair...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Thursday for LCZ460. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Thursday for LEZ444. && $$ DISCUSSION...MV MARINE.......SF AVIATION.....TF You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit. ####018003374#### FXUS66 KSGX 092111 AFDSGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Diego CA 111 PM PST Tue Dec 9 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Warm and dry conditions with periods of weak Santa Ana winds this week. Above average temperatures expected into next week, with the most significant departure from normal expected today through Thursday. Mostly clear skies are expected through at least Thursday, with low clouds and fog returning to coastal areas as early as Friday or Saturday morning. && .DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... Temperatures at 1 PM were running 3 to 8 degrees warmer than 1 PM yesterday for most locations expect the mountains where they were running up to 11 degrees warmer than yesterday. A few additional degrees of warming is expected for inland areas Wednesday and Thursday, with some cooling at the coast. The surface high pressure over the Great Basin will remain in place through Friday, continuing periods of weak Santa Ana winds. Strongest winds will remain confined to coastal mountain slopes, foothills, and below passes with gusts 25 to 35 mph. The airmass getting pushed into Southern California from the Great Basin is quite dry, with minimum afternoon relative humidity for inland areas falling to 10 to 20% each afternoon through Thursday, bringing periods of elevated fire weather conditions. Skies are expected to remain mostly clear through Thursday. Chances of low clouds and fog returning to the coast begin to increase Friday with higher chances over the weekend. High resolution guidance is showing the development of a coastal eddy Thursday night into Friday, which would increase the chances of low clouds and fog returning to coastal areas. The first night or two that marine layer low clouds and fog return, the fog has the potential to be dense especially as ridging aloft remains over the area. Highs for the weekend into early next week will remain above average, but not quite as warm as this week. Highs along the coast through Monday will be about 5 degrees above average and 8 to 12 degrees above average for inland areas. For the early to middle part of next week there starts to become some uncertainty in the upper level pattern. By next Tuesday, 65% of ensemble clusters are showing the ridge continuing over the West Coast, with 20% showing the ridge weakening due to an incoming trough, and 15% showing the ridge present but over the Eastern Pacific. && .AVIATION... 092100Z...Beautiful clear skies with VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period at all sites. Breezy northeast winds in the foothills and locally into the adjacent valleys with gusts up to 25- 30 kts will be possible through 18Z Wednesday with winds beginning to trend down after 20Z. && .MARINE...No hazardous marine conditions are anticipated through Sunday. && .SKYWARN... Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions. && .SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...None. && $$ PUBLIC...CO AVIATION/MARINE...Villafane ####018010152#### FXUS63 KFSD 092112 AFDFSD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 312 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... A strong system is expected for this evening and overnight as winds strengthen out of the northwest with gusts up to 50-60 mph expected. Isolated higher gusts are expected as well. Patchy blowing and drifting snow is expected, resulting in reduced visibilities. Light snow is also expected mainly across southwest Minnesota and adjacent parts of southeast South Dakota and northwest Iowa. Further reduction in visibility down to a quarter of a mile or less is expected in falling snow. - A High Wind Warning has been issued for the entire area and is in effect from this evening through the overnight hours. A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for all of southwest Minnesota and adjacent parts of southeast South Dakota and northwest Iowa. The Advisory is in effect from 9 pm this evening to 4 am Wednesday morning. - Chances for precipitation will persist into the weekend, with Wednesday night through Thursday and Friday night having the highest probabilities for accumulating precipitation. Mixed precipitation is likely (50-70%) for the chance for Wednesday night through Thursday system, including the potential for light ice accumulations. - A much colder airmass looks to persist through the weekend. Near Advisory level winds chills may be possible Saturday night. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 311 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 Light rain continues to push through the forecast area this afternoon. While mainly rain, a few sites have reported light snow at times. Accumulations are expected to be light on the order of a about a tenth of an inch or less. While quite benign in terms of immediate impact, this rain, along with high temperatures warming to mid 30s for the majority of the area, has resulted in uncertainty regarding how blowable the snowpack will be this evening and night. The rain and warm temperatures are also melting the snowpack as well. Any chance for rain will come to an end during the late afternoon and evening hours. As chances for rain dwindle as a cold front pushes through the forecast area late this afternoon and evening. A strong shot of cold air advection (CAA) will accompany the passing cold front. The front will turn winds to more northwesterly in its wake and will ramp up the strength of the winds. Very strong winds are expected with gusts mainly up to 50-60 mph with isolated higher gusts above 60 mph expected. These strong winds will persist through the evening hours and into the overnight timeframe before beginning to weaken during the early morning hours. These strong winds will result in patchy blowing and drifting snow as well. The second component to this system is snow showers developing in the post frontal, cold air overnight. The best low level moisture along with steepening low level lapse rates looks to be just enough to generate a hint of instability. This will result in snow showers instead of a broad area of stratiform precipitation. These snow showers look to reside mainly across southwest Minnesota and adjacent portions of southeast South Dakota and northwest Iowa. Any chance for snow showers looks to come to an end before daybreak. While patchy blowing and drifting snow is expected, any falling snow combined with the wind will make for very low visibilities falling down to a quarter of a mile or less. These combinations of factors has resulted in a change to headlines for the area. Have converted the Winter Storm Watch to a High Wind Warning and issued a Winter Weather Advisory for southwest Minnesota and adjacent parts of southeast South Dakota and northwest Iowa. Have made these changes because confidence is not high enough in Blizzard conditions being met given how the current rain and warm temperatures will modify the current snow pack. Winds will be weakening into the morning hours on Wednesday before going light come the late afternoon hours thanks to incoming surface high pressure. This high will result in a break in active weather but keep conditions cool with highs only warming to low 20s to low 30s. However, this break in the action will be brief as the next chance for precipitation returns to the area thanks to another clipper system pushing through the Northern Plains. Any chance for precipitation looks to begin Wednesday evening and persist through the day on Thursday. A baroclinic zone looks to remain situated just east of the Rocky Mountains. As this wave pushes into the area, it will strengthen the thermal gradient and strengthen WAA ahead of the boundary to it's northeast. This will drive the precipitation chances though this looks to be a mixed precipitation event. The strong WAA aloft looks to warm 850 mb temperatures near to above freezing mainly along a Huron, South Dakota to Sioux Falls, South Dakota, to Storm Lake, Iowa line. Surface temperatures look to fall near to below zero near to east of this line. This mixed precipitation is possible in the forms of freezing rain, sleet, and snow. Both the GFS and Euro ensembles support this as they show 50-70% chance for freezing rain, sleet, and snow. Latest ensembles show support for some ice accumulations with their probabilities up to a 20-50% chance for a light glaze of ice along and southwest of the previously mentioned line. In terms of snow, the same ensembles show a 30-60% chance for snowfall totals to exceed an inch along and northeast of the previously mentioned line. Have stuck with the NBM at this time but trends will be monitored with this system as the location of where precipitation sets up can still change. Friday looks to continue the trends of a brief break in the action before another round of precipitation passes through the area. With a cold airmass in place, highs on Friday will only warm to the teens to 20s. Breezy northwest winds will result in cold wind chills down to the positive and negative single digits. With a prevailing northwest flow pattern aloft, another chance for precipitation looks to come Friday night through Saturday morning. The ensembles show near 100% probabilities that this chance for precipitation will be all snow. Amounts are uncertain at this time given how the best WAA is just south and west of the forecast area. Will keep an eye on this system over the coming days. Aside from precipitation chances, high temperatures remain quite cold across the area with highs only warming to the single digits to up to barely touching the teens along the Missouri River Valley. Sunday will be bit warmer with highs warming to the single digits and 20s. Saturday night looks to be the coldest night with bitterly cold lows falling down to the negative single digits and teens. This will also result in quite cold wind chills across the area as well. Next Monday and Tuesday look to be quiet with highs rebounding to the 20s and 30s. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1118 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 Light rain will continue to move southeast through the CWA early this afternoon. We'll continue to watch the progression of a strong frontal boundary moving southeast later this afternoon, which will begin bringing 40+ knots gusts into early evening and falling temperatures. The arrival of a secondary cold front late this evening will lead to even higher surges of wind over 50 knots, along with widespread MVFR to IFR ceilings. Big questions remain on the potential for blowing snow and then the development of horizontal convective rolls after midnight. Should the snowpack be able to be lofted, it will reduce visibilities quickly. For now, will suggest a persistent MVFR visibility with a lower probabilities of 1 mile or lower visibility based on HREF guidance through the core of the peak winds. These will need to be monitored and amended as needed over the upcoming 18 hours. Ceilings will gradually improve and winds will weaken Wednesday morning. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...High Wind Warning from 8 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Wednesday for SDZ040-055-056-062-066-067-069>071. Winter Storm Watch Wednesday morning for SDZ038>040-052>056- 058>062-064>071. Winter Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 4 AM CST Wednesday for SDZ040-056. Winter Storm Watch until 6 PM CST this evening for SDZ038>040- 052>056-058>062-064>066-068-069. High Wind Warning until 3 AM CST Wednesday for SDZ038-039- 052>054-058>061-064-065-068. High Wind Warning until 3 AM CST Wednesday for SDZ050-057-063. MN...High Wind Warning from 8 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Wednesday for MNZ071-097-098. Winter Storm Watch Wednesday morning for MNZ071-072-080-081- 089-090-097-098. High Wind Warning from 9 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Wednesday for MNZ072-080-081-089-090. Winter Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 4 AM CST Wednesday for MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-098. Winter Storm Watch until 6 PM CST this evening for MNZ071-072- 097. IA...High Wind Warning from 8 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Wednesday for IAZ001-012-020-031. Winter Storm Watch Wednesday morning for IAZ001>003-012>014- 020>022-031-032. High Wind Warning from 9 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Wednesday for IAZ002-003-013-014-021-022-032. Winter Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 4 AM CST Wednesday for IAZ002-003-014. NE...High Wind Warning from 8 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Wednesday for NEZ013-014. Winter Storm Watch Wednesday morning for NEZ013-014. && $$ DISCUSSION...Meyers AVIATION...Dux ####018009741#### FXUS65 KMSO 092113 AFDMSO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 213 PM MST Tue Dec 9 2025 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: - The second installment of a Significant Atmospheric River, potentially historic, will bring heavy rain back to the region tonight, leading to hydrological concerns and flood risk. - Strong winds return Wednesday, most likely from I-90 southwards; strong mountain wind continues through the period. - A quick burst of snow is expected late tonight into Wednesday morning across most of Northwest Montana, with a chance for slushy accumulations on valley roads. - Shallow Arctic air intrusion late Thursday into Friday may bring mixed wintry precipitation (snow/freezing rain) near Marias Pass and Essex, primarily impacting areas east of the Divide. - Heavy, wet snow across backcountry and high elevations areas above 5000-8000 feet this week. The first plume of anomalous moisture from an ongoing atmospheric river event is currently waning over the region. Total precipitation amounts have ranged from 4 to 6 inches in the Clearwater and Bitterroot Ranges, and along the Idaho/Montana border further north. Valleys have received a good soaking as well with even the climatologically “drier areas” of our region like Ovando have received over an inch of rainfall. The streams and mainstem rivers have responded, but no major impacts to speak of yet other than rockfall warnings and water on road messages from road crews. After this brief afternoon lull in the heaviest precipitation, the next plume will arrive by tonight. Gusty southwest to west winds last night and this morning were in response to the cold front that allowed stronger winds to mix down to the surface. There have been sporadic power outages from random trees on power lines. It doesn't appear to be widespread damage. Hurricane-force winds were observed in the higher mountains in the Glacier Region. Also, the gusty winds have brought in relatively drier air into northwest Montana, which is the mechanism facilitating snow reaching the valley floors tonight. The next surge of anomalous moisture will arrive into the region late tonight and continue into Thursday. This second surge looks similarly strong to the ongoing wave, however it appears to be more prolonged, peaking for a 24 hour period (or possibly longer). Before warm air scours out the cold air Wednesday afternoon, snow levels will dip low enough (3000-4000 feet) to produce winter impacts late tonight into Wednesday morning. Snowfall rates of 0.5" to 1" per hour may create slick conditions and reduced visibility for the Wednesday morning commute. Even the Flathead Valley could see a brief transition to wet snow. Confidence is still not widespread enough to issue a Winter Weather Advisory for Lincoln County at this time. Wind Discussion: Strong winds will be possible with the atmospheric river on Wednesday. Under the primary atmospheric river plume, northwest Montana valleys may be too stable for strong valley winds. However, better mixing is expected generally from I-90 southwards, which is where the strongest valley gusts are most likely. Also high temperatures could peak into the 50s in these locations which could be up to 20 degrees above average for this time of year! When the plume sags south Thursday evening, a brief period of wind may be possible again across northwest Montana valleys, but residual moisture and rainfall will likely keep the lowest levels more stable. Mountain passes and exposed ridges will remain windy through this entire period. Arctic Intrusion/Wintry Mix:Confidence is increasing that anomalous moisture will persist through the remainder of the week. A critical factor is the potential for a weak, shallow Arctic air mass intrusion late Thursday night into Friday. Current probabilities suggest the cold air will only penetrate as far as Marias Pass to maybe Essex. The interaction of this shallow cold air with overriding Pacific moisture introduces the threat of snow and freezing rain. Most of the wintry weather and rough travel is expected to be east of the Divide as very cold air pours out of Canada, banking up against the mountains. The cold air depth will be a critical, low-confidence element. Weekend Outlook: For the weekend, deterministic models show no precipitation, but the NBM continues to show persistent PoPs (Probability of Precipitation). With previous rainfall leading to deep saturation, there is a risk for low cloud and fog development, potentially leading to persistent low ceilings and reduced visibility, even if precipitation is minimal. Temperatures will run significantly milder than average this weekend, 5 to 10 degrees above the average highs in the lower 30s. Highs may reach well into the 40s in a few locations. The overall pattern over the eastern Pacific is not forecast to change much in the following week, which will keep the door open for additional Pacific moisture plumes. && .AVIATION...An atmospheric river moving across the region is causing widespread moderate impacts to aviation. The first is rain and low ceilings which has been causing intermittent IFR to LIFR at area terminals. As the atmospheric river remains aligned with the northern Rockies for the next 24 hours and beyond, this will continue to be an impact. Another impact from the atmospheric river has been very strong winds. Many mountaintop locations have gusted over 50 mph in the vicinity of terminals like KGPI and KMSO. Stable conditions sometimes prevent those winds from mixing down to the surface, causing low level wind shear, and at other times the winds have been able to overcome the stable layer and cause gusts 20-30 knots. Overall, the wind gusts have been very intermittent and we expect them to continue that way. Again, we expect this to continue for the next 24 hours at least at area TAF sites. Lowering snow levels this evening means there's a chance of snow from about 07-11Z tonight impacting terminals. Snow levels will start rising early in the morning again, so it will transition back to rain by 12Z. Air temperatures are expected to remain around freezing or slightly above, so paved surfaces will remain on the brink of freezing through the late night hours. && .HYDROLOGY...Recent rainfall has already primed regional soils and triggered rises on waterways, and the incoming second surge will further exacerbate these conditions. Mainstem rivers in north-central Idaho are now beginning to respond significantly to the precipitation of the last several days. Orofino Creek near Orofino is now close to 4 feet, a rapid increase from just 1 foot before daybreak this morning. Similarly, the Selway River near Lowell is up to 6 feet, 2 feet higher than it was last night. The ground and rivers are finally responding to the rain. The 4 to 6 inches of initial rain was delayed from hitting the rivers because the cold snowpack first absorbed the water like a saturated sponge. At the same time, the mild, non-frozen ground (due in part to the warm November and drought) soaked up even more water. Now that the snow and ground are full, the rivers are starting to rise. This next surge of anomalous moisture is forecast to deliver an additional 2 to 5 inches of liquid precipitation to the terrain of north-central Idaho and northwest/west-central Montana, with valleys receiving between 0.50 and 2.00 inches. Consequently, cumulative storm totals by Thursday morning are projected to reach localized amounts of 5 to 12 inches of liquid (since last Saturday Dec. 6). The primary concern, however, extends beyond pure rainfall intensity. This system is driven by a warm, subtropical air mass that will drive freezing levels well above 6,000 to 8,000 feet by Wednesday. This will induce a significant rain-on-snow event, rapidly ripening and melting the existing low- to-mid elevation snowpack. The wavering nature of the second, longer Atmospheric River plume, which moves into Northwest Montana Thursday night and then back to North- Central Idaho by Thursday morning, may offer a brief period where river flows could potentially catch up to the rainfall, which could help reduce the chance for more widespread hydro impacts in the short term. The potential for impacts is still high, especially since temperatures could remain above freezing in many mountain locations Wednesday night and Thursday night. Given this setup, numerous Flood Watches remain in effect. Residents in steep terrain should also remain alert for rock and mudslides, particularly in north-central Idaho and northwest Montana where the ground is deeply saturated. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for Flathead/Mission Valleys...Kootenai/Cabinet Region...Lower Clark Fork Region...Potomac/Seeley Lake Region...West Glacier Region. Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 11 AM MST Wednesday for Potomac/Seeley Lake Region...West Glacier Region. ID...Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for Lower Hells Canyon/Salmon River Region...Northern Clearwater Mountains...Orofino/Grangeville Region...Southern Clearwater Mountains. && $$ ####018006789#### FXUS63 KJKL 092114 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 414 PM EST Tue Dec 9 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Lake Wind Advisories have been issued for the Cave Run Lake and Cumberland Lake areas. - Gusty southwesterly winds between 30 and 40 mph are likely on Wednesday. - Snow showers are expected to produce spatially variable accumulations and localized travel impacts on Wednesday night into Thursday morning. - A clipper system is expected to produce more widespread winter precipitation on Thursday night into Friday morning. - A much colder than normal airmass is forecast to move into the region late next weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued at 413 PM EST TUE DEC 9 2025 Added a Lake Wind Advisory for the Cave Run Lake area. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 325 PM EST TUE DEC 9 2025 Current conditions show mid and high level clouds slowly clearing out across Eastern Kentucky. Current temperatures around the area are in the low to mid 40s, these are likely the highs for this afternoon. Winds and cloud cover are expected to both increase ahead of the next system this evening. With elevated winds and increased cloud cover, temperatures are not expected to decouple, and remain elevated overnight. Low temperatures should remain in the mid to upper 30s. A strong low level jet is expected to move across the area later this evening and overnight. While winds will be "screaming" a few hundred feet off the surface (50-60 kts), winds from this boundary layer are not expected to mix down to the surface, at least not for an extended period of time. BUFKIT Soundings comparing multiple models across multiple locations indicated the momentum transfer from this boundry-layer low-level jet wouldn't be sufficient enough to reach Wind Advisory conditions. Cross sections of each model run showed perhaps better chances of this would be along or right behind the cold frontal passage later Wednesday morning- afternoon. Lots of collaboration occurred between JKL and neighboring offices, however it was ultimately decided confidence was too low earlier today and with the current guidance to issue any products such as a Wind Advisory. That said, winds will still be gusty, and later guidance may offer greater confidence on the above. During the pre-dawn hours Wednesday, rain will begin to spread across the areas from the northwest to southeast. Winds may be strongest along the cold front as it passes through the area. Winds will be out of the southwest 15-25 mph with gusts 30-35 mph, approaching 40 mph in spots. Strongest winds should be near/west of I-75 and near/north of I-64. A Lake Wind Advisory has been issued for Lake Cumberland through 6 PM Wednesday. After the front moves through winds should slowly taper off. Temperatures are expected to peak in the mid 40s to near 50 through Wednesday afternoon. Winds then become westerly and eventually northwesterly heading into the evening. Behind the cold front, temperatures will drop rapidly through the afternoon. Towards sunset, and into the evening, rain will mix with and eventually changeover to all snow. By this point most snow showers should be across SE Kentucky. Some of the more persistent snow showers may put down a quick skiff or coating of snow across grassy or elevated surfaces. Only a few tenths of snow is expected in those areas. Low temperatures eventually drop into the mid to upper 20s. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 233 PM EST TUE DEC 9 2025 The period begins Thursday morning with a deep trough over Eastern Seaboard moving quickly out to sea, with cold advection snow showers continuing to gradually wind down through the morning. Highs only recover into the lower to mid 30s Thursday with surface high pressure ridging moving through during the afternoon. A warm front approaches from the southwest in advance of another clipper system for Thursday evening into Friday. Though the column will be warming as the system advances across the northeastern half of the forecast area, precipitation will be overrunning a sufficiently cold atmosphere for accumulating snow to fall, with the highest accumulations and thus impacts expected along and north of the Mountain Parkway, where most areas could see around 1 inch of snow accumulation, with the low potential for 2 inches toward northeastern Kentucky. Temperatures will be warming as the event progresses, with surface temperatures warming quickly through the 30s especially as, and/or shortly after, precipitation ends from southwest to northeast behind the warm front passage. A milder air mass then persists across the region for Friday and Saturday, with highs returning to the 40s. However, another clipper system dives southeast across the area the second half of Saturday into the first half of Sunday, with rain chances changing to snow chances as temperatures fall quickly behind the front. This front will be the leading edge of an arctic air mass, with some of the coldest conditions of the winter possible Sunday night into Monday, especially if good radiational cooling conditions can develop. Model uncertainty increases to end the long-term period next Monday, with the temperature forecast largely dependent on how quickly warm advection becomes re-established along with associated clouds (and perhaps precipitation chances) with the next clipper system. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon) ISSUED AT 1253 PM EST TUE DEC 9 2025 Mid and high level clouds are currently being observed across the area. Winds will become southwest through the afternoon and increase to between 5 and 15 kts with gusts of 15 to 25 kts. The strongest winds will occur near/west of I-75 and near/north of I-64. Winds aloft will begin to ramp up tonight ahead of an approaching cold front. There's also a Low Level Jet (LLJ) moving across the area tonight, leading to the threat of LLWS for most of tonight. Around 12Z a cold front is expected to move through producing rain for most TAF sites between 13-18Z Wednesday. Winds will remain out of the SW with gusts 20-25 kts, though the threat of LLWS diminishes with the frontal passage. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Lake Wind Advisory from 5 AM to 6 PM EST Wednesday for KYZ051- 052-060-079-080-083-084-106. && $$ UPDATE...GINNICK SHORT TERM...GINNICK LONG TERM...CMC AVIATION...GINNICK ####018006898#### FXUS63 KMKX 092114 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 314 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for portions of southern Wisconsin for snow accumulations as well as the potential for some freezing rain and icing due to cold pavement temperatures. This will bring impacts to travel this evening into early Wednesday morning. Snow accumumlations will be greatest through Marquette, Green Lake, Fond du Lac, and western Sheboygan Counties. - Additional rounds of light snowfall are then possible at times later Thursday through the weekend. - Below normal temperatures continue through next weekend, with wind chills as cold as -15 to -25 degrees Friday and Saturday night. && .SHORT TERM... Issued 245 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 Tonight through Wednesday night: A clipper system is anticpated to impact southern Wisconsin this evening into Wednesday morning. Strong 850-700mb warm advection and frontogenesis will drive a band of higher qpf ranging from 0.25 to 0.5 inches in a stripe from northwest to southeast Wisconsin. A better overlap of this qpf and colder temperatures will exist generally north of I-94 in our area, while areas south and west will suffer from some mixed precipitation/rain as sfc warm advection drives temperatures above freezing for a time overnight. Light snow/mix may start first in southwest Wisconsin around 4pm this afternoon. A bit of freezing rain can't be ruled out as well, given a very slight on and off warm nose signal from the CAMs over southwest Wisconsin. Any liquid preciptation that falls will encounter some below freezing road temps, which may cause icing. Otherwise, conditions are expected to deteriorate pretty quickly north of I-94 tonight as snow will rapidly onset between 5 to 6pm and rates will quickly increase as the core of the 850mb fgen moves over central WI ahead of the surface low. The best rates of 0.5 to 1 inches per hour are expected to move over central/east- central WI between 9 and 11pm, leading to a quick 2 to 3 inches of accumulation over Marquette, Green Lake, Fond du Lac, and western Sheboygan Counties. Rates should then begin to taper off after midnight, but snow will continue until shortly after 6am Wednesday, accounting for the rest of the snow totals north of I-94 Areas along and south of I-94 may see a brief change over to all rain after the initial light snow/mix/freezing rain 9pm through midnight as the surface low moves over the area, before a dry slot impacts the southern 2 tiers of counties over southern WI. Light snow will then slowly sink south after midnight and swing southeast through this area before exiting southeast over Lake Michigan and IL, through 8am. CAA will then kick in on Wednesday behind the departing surface low with temps remaining steady in the mid to upper 20s to slowly falling through the day. Gusty northwest winds will make things feel chilly outside, with wind chills in the negative single digits Wednesday night amid air temperatures in the single digits. CMiller && .LONG TERM... Issued 243 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 Thursday through Tuesday: Active northwest flow continues through the end of the week. Our next chance for snow will arrive later Thursday into Thursday night, as a band of warm advection and fgen sets up across Iowa, southwestern Wisconsin, and northern Illinois. There continues to be some disagreement with the exact placement of this band, but at this time it seems probable that the majority of the accumulating snow will be south and west of Madison (and perhaps largely to the southwest of our CWA), with much lighter amounts to the north and east. Highs Thursday will be rather chilly, with readings in the teens and 20s, and overnight lows Thursday night into Friday morning in the single digits and low teens. Some additional light snow will be possible with a cold front Friday, followed by another swipe of snow (mainly) to the southwest on Saturday. That front will usher in a very cold airmass, with highs on Saturday and Sunday expected to be in the single digits, with lows between zero and 10 below. Wind chills Saturday and Sunday morning will approach Advisory levels. Some moderation in temperatures is expected early next week, though with considerable uncertainty as to what degree. Boxell && .AVIATION... Issued 231 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 Low ceilings will generally continue into tomorrow as low level moisture lingers and a clipper system moves through the area overnight into tomorrow. Winds will come around to southeasterly this evening and become gusty between 25 to 30 knots. As the surface low passes around 6z, winds will become somewhat calm around KFLD and KSBM, while winds will remain gusty and quickly come from southeasterly to southwesterly, and then northwesterly after the low passes. Snow accumulations will generally be around 1 to 2 inches from a KMSN to KMKE line, with higher totals north of that line toward central and east central WI. CMiller && .MARINE... Issued 244 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 Low pressure will track from Minnesota across southern Lake Michigan and into Lower Michigan tonight. Southwest to westerly gales will develop ahead of the low over the southern third of the lake tonight, followed by northwest to northerly gales expanding across the southern two thirds of the lake as the low passes early Wednesday morning. The brisk winds will then gradually diminish Wednesday night. A period of northwesterly gales may then return Friday night into Saturday as a strong arctic front moves through the Great Lakes region. Heavy freezing spray may also develop. Boxell && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...Winter Weather Advisory...WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ051-WIZ052-WIZ056- WIZ057-WIZ058-WIZ059-WIZ060-WIZ062-WIZ063-WIZ064-WIZ067- WIZ068-WIZ069...6 PM Tuesday to 6 AM Wednesday. LM...Gale Warning...LMZ080-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ874- LMZ876-LMZ878...9 PM Tuesday to 6 PM Wednesday. Gale Warning...LMZ366-LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ868- LMZ870-LMZ872...5 AM Wednesday to 6 PM Wednesday. Gale Warning...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...5 AM Wednesday to noon Wednesday. Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...6 PM Tuesday to 5 AM Wednesday. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.x.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee