####018006376#### FXUS63 KGID 112010 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 310 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A few isolated storms (20-30% chance) could develop this afternoon and tonight. Any storm that develops may have the potential to become severe. Hail up to the size of ping pong balls will be the primary concern. - Another chance of scattered thunderstorms (a few potentially severe) returns Sunday for a few southeastern portions of the area. - High temperatures will range the mid 70s and 80s Sunday through Thursday. - Scattered shower and storm chances (20-40%) return Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday as well as Friday night. - A end of the week cold frontal passage Friday may drop temperatures a few degrees over next weekend (back to the 50/60s). && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 308 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026 Today... Following the scattered storms from last night across much of our central to south and eastern portions of the area, lingering cloud coverage has followed us into today. Despite these clouds, breezy southerly warm air advecting winds have helped push temperatures up into the upper 60s and 70s. The breezy southerly winds gusting as high as 25-35MPH will be expected to remain somewhat steady overnight (gusts 15-30MPH) as a surface low continue to strengthening over eastern Montana. The main question today will be if and where afternoon to nighttime thunderstorms develop. With temperatures rising this afternoon, instability has also increase. SBCAPE values will peak between 1,000-2,500 J/KG with 6-8 C/KM low-to-mid level lapse rates. Though an isolated tornado can't be ruled out (20-30kts of 0-1km shear), the primarly hazard tonight would be hail up to the size of ping pong balls. As result, the SPC has upgraded central, eastern and southern portions of the are into a slight risk of severe weather (level 2 of 5 for mainly locations near, east and south of the Tri-Cities) as well as a Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) across the remainder of the forecast area for today. The big question tonight will be IF storms develop outside of a few isolated places given weak synoptic forcing. The upper-level shortwave trough will not arrive until the overnight hours. as result, activity before midnight may be fairly isolated to a few locations that are able to break through the low-level inversional CAP. Storms that develop across the overnight hours may have less energy to feed off from, thus the severe potential is expected to wane through the overnight hours. Sunday... Temperatures will continue to rise Sunday as clouds clear partially with the continuation of the southerly to southwesterly winds (directions veering as the surface low moves across the Dakotas). Highs for Sunday are currently forecast to reach the upper 70s to mid 80s. Wind speeds will be at their strongest point early in the day (10-20MPH and gusting up to 30MPH) later lightening to only 5-10MPH and gusting up to 20MPH by the later afternoon and evening hours. A limited east to southeastern portion of the area could see a storm or two in the evening. Any storm that does develop will once again have the chance to become severe due to sufficient shear and instability east of a passing dryline. Confidence remains somewhat limited (20-30% chance) as storms that do fire, may do so after the dryline has completely exited the area to the east. The SPC has included areas southeast of a line from Rooks county Kansas to Polk county Nebraska underneath a Marginal risk. Monday and Beyond... Troughing across the Western U.S. during the first half of the week will set up southwest upper-level flow across the Central Plains. A few embedded shortwave disturbances will likely emerge out of this flow, each bringing along at least a small chance for precipitation. The next chance for precip (20-40%) will come Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday as a surface low deepens across the area. Confidence remains somewhat limited as both the GFS and ECMWF global deterministic models keep most of the shower and storm activity east of the local area. A similar story as Sunday may play out where the key forcing mechanism (cold front) may pass through earlier in the day, minimizing the afternoon to evening storm potential. Beyond the mid-week precipitation chances, temperatures will likely peak in the mid 70s and 80s through Thursday with winds (outside of Tuesday night) maintaining a southerly to westerly orientation. The warmer temperatures with occasional periods of gusty winds will bring back near-critical fire weather conditions to at least a potion of the area each day Monday through the end of next week. Brief critical fire weather conditions from time to time can't be ruled out across a few southwest locations mainly on Tuesday afternoon. The next feature to note will be the passage of a cold front later in the week that will knock highs down some heading into next weekend (back to the 50s and 60s). Another precipitation chance may trail behind the front Friday night into Saturday as another and likely more amplified trough approaches the area. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1221 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: Currently IFR conditions at KEAR and MVFR conditions at KGRI will be expected to soon return back to VFR conditions by 21z. Though broken to overcast skies are expected to retain through the period, ceilings will soon lift today before holding near 15,000ft this evening and tonight. Though a few scattered storms may be possible this evening and tonight, confidence remains below a prob30 mention. The nature of the storms will be in all likeliness highly scattered. Winds will stay out of the south, blowing between 15-20kts and gusting as high as 30-35kts through much of the day and night. Winds will begin to lighten Sunday morning. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Stump AVIATION...Stump ####018005545#### FXUS66 KMTR 112014 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 114 PM PDT Sat Apr 11 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 109 PM PDT Sat Apr 11 2026 - Rain showers and isolated thunderstorms are forecast to increase this afternoon and evening - Rain showers and thunderstorm chances linger into Monday morning - A warming and drying trend returns through the remainder of the work week && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 109 PM PDT Sat Apr 11 2026 (This evening through Monday) Rain showers and isolated thunderstorms remain in the forecast through early afternoon. Then, as a surface low approaches the northern California coast, a narrow cold-frontal rainband (NCFR) is forecast to approach the North Bay between 2 PM - 5 PM, 4 PM - 7 PM across the Bay Area, and 6 PM - 9 PM across the Central Coast. Along and ahead of the NCFR is when we have the greatest potential for damaging wind gusts exceeding 40 kt out over the ocean and bays. This will also be when we have the greatest potential for rotating cells that may produce waterspouts and/or weak tornadoes. Wind gusts are also expected to reach up to or exceed 50 mph along the coast and in the higher terrain during the aforementioned timeframes. Any stronger convection will be capable of producing stronger wind gusts. Again, much of our region remains under a Marginal Risk for sever weather today. The aforementioned low pressure system is forecast push into northern California later tonight and become quasi-stationary through Sunday. Thus, scattered to numerous rain showers and isolated thunderstorms will prevail through Sunday and into early Monday morning as a colder/unsettled air mass moves into the region. This colder air mass will result in a low end potential for the region's highest peaks to see snowfall through Monday morning. However, little to no snow accumulations are forecast at this time. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 109 PM PDT Sat Apr 11 2026 (Monday night through next Friday) The colder air mass will result in chilly temperatures across the interior both Monday and Tuesday mornings especially over the North Bay Valleys and interior Central Coast. Temperatures are currently forecast to be in the low-to-upper 30s in these areas with low 40s to near 50 degrees F elsewhere across the region. There is the potential for frost each morning across these interior regions, especially in the wind sheltered areas. Temperatures rebound to near seasonal averages by Thursday and Friday as ridging builds in from the eastern Pacific. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1052 AM PDT Sat Apr 11 2026 Challenging and dynamic forecast over the next 24 to 36 hrs as a robust system sweeps through the region. A few scout showers ahead of more pronounced band of precip will bring a mixed bag of VFR to MVFR/IFR through this afternoon. It most cases the drop to MVFR/IFR will be episodic with passing showers. Expect S To SE flow to increase late this afternoon as well. Timing of "worst" conditions still remains 01-06Z with a defined line of storms. IFR conditions with very gusty winds. Thereafter, gradual improvement, but scattered precip lingering well into Sunday. Overall conf is low to moderate. Vicinity of SFO...Wet runways and S to SE are never a good combo and both will be possible through late this afternoon. VFR to MVFR will prevail through this time period as well. The stronger band of storms will bring borderline AWW winds for a brief window 01-05Z with gusts 35kt. Will also need to monitor for lightning as well. Overnight steady rain transitions to scattered through Sunday. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...MVFR to VFR conditions through this afternoon. MVFR to IFR conditions this evening with gusty S to SW winds. && .MARINE... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 818 AM PDT Sat Apr 11 2026 Shower activity and chances for storms build into the afternoon. A strong band of rain moves through Saturday evening and into that night. Expect gustier winds and rough seas, with isolated gale force gusts ahead and along this band of rain. Shower activity lingers behind the rain band, and picks up again into Sunday afternoon with chances for storms returning. Overall rain chances exit Sunday night. High pressure builds behind the system with fresh northwest winds developing early next week, as seas abate to become moderate through mid week. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Sunday for Mry Bay-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm-SF Bay N of Bay Bridge. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Sunday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Sunday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...RGass LONG TERM....RGass AVIATION...MM MARINE...RGass Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea ####018010900#### FXUS63 KMKX 112014 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 314 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Highs in the 70s return Sunday through much of next week. - An active weather pattern returns Sunday through next week. Warm and humid conditions and more showers and storms are expected. Severe storms will be possible. && .SHORT TERM... Issued 315 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026 Tonight through Sunday night: Clouds have increased as WAA/moisture has increased in the midlevels. We will continue to see a few splats of rain this afternoon though given drier low levels this will likely isolated to scattered activity. As we head later into the afternoon, low levels should steadily moisten as the LLJ slides east and rain will become more likely this evening. The warm advection aloft will cause some weak MUCAPE to build to 500 J/kg and some rumbles of thunder may occur early Sunday morning. Overall the moisture will be more consistent throughout the column with no significant dry air to work around but CAMs generally show a scattered nature to activity with better chances building to the northeastern CWA into the evening. Evening chances will be best in the central/northeastern parts of the CWA. However, based on observations from last night WPC had pointed toward a marginal risk for heavy rain as the outlier ARW model performed best last night in the central US. This CAM (and to a lesser degree the FV3) in particular shows a convective area of storms developing to the west and southwest this afternoon and pushing in during the evening. This shows an extended period of rain showers tonight across southern WI and with PWATs in the 1.25-1.5 in range we could very easily yield some heavy rain concerns overnight. But there remains uncertainty given the differences in the CAMs. It is worth mentioning the 12z HRRR shows an similar feature initially though it pushes through more quickly and does not hold precip through the late night period. Normally, we would rule out the outlier scenario for the most part, but it cannot be ignored given that it best handled the convection in the central US last night and that a few other CAMs have hinted at this possibility, just perhaps not to the same degree. Low lying areas may be susceptible to ponding and minor flooding concerns. Flash flooding is not expected. Rain may linger into the day Sunday but most CAMs having things largely dry from mid morning through the mid to late afternoon. Then later Sunday into Sunday night we will see a shortwave track through with plenty of moisture and some additional WAA from the LLJ over the area. At first look, this setup appears harmless and looks fairly benign. However, digging deeper, the environment out ahead of the precip associated with the shortwave briefly becomes favorable for severe weather. The global models generally show moist adiabatic soundings but the HREF instability shows perhaps a bit more to tap into (~500J/kg) and with fairly strong shear in the low levels of 30kts or so and deep layer shear around 40kts. This potential is only for the very forefront of precip pushing, which in several models shows isolated to scattered convection pushing in. With non- zero STP and modest supercell composite we cannot rule out any hazard as brief as it may be (~2-4 hour period, 3-7pm). Further into the evening precip will become more widespread with some embedded storms. Periods of moderate rain with heavier rain in storms should be expected and given PWATs across SE half or more of the CWA of 1.25-1.5 in we could see another period of minor flooding concerns, though no flash flooding is expected. Kuroski && .LONG TERM... Issued 315 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026 Monday through Saturday: Into Monday, models have trended largely dry during the day and possibly even through Monday night. A strong inversion aloft with limited forcing over southern WI may limit convective potential at this time. Northern and possibly central parts of WI will see better potential into the late afternoon/early evening for storms given a much weaker inversion, closer to the warm front that may yield better convective potential. Currently southern WI is expected to be south of the warm front, perhaps well south. Global model ensembles somewhat disagree with the EC Ens having the warm front further south, toward central WI, while the GEFS generally has the warm front much further north. In addition, all of the CAMs we have that stretch into Monday afternoon/evening suggest the further north setup with storms largely remaining well to the north, with our CWA remaining dry. Now we cannot rule out the EC setup but it has largely been the outlier for this expected stretch of storm activity for this upcoming week. The EC appears to just be on the slow side and in this case it keeps the surface low much further south and west which then keeps the warm front further south and within our window of risk. Should the EC be correct this would put our CWA in the primary risk area with all hazards possible given the cap gets eroded. If the cap doesn't get eroded, likely nothing happens because there will be limited forcing aloft to get elevated convection. However, assuming the cap erodes all hazard would be possible given high instability environment with plenty of low level and deep layer shear. The most likely timeframe for the cap to erode, should it erode, would be Monday evening, especially if the warm front is not present over the area. Tuesday still generally appears to bring higher end severe potential but the trend in the models has definitely shifted toward a much more delayed progression of the upper level trough, thus delaying the progression of the surface low. However this has largely just shifted the how and why of the system, only slightly lessening the higher end severe weather concerns. Models do disagree on what is expected to occur across southern WI but general models show a warm front now laying across parts of southern WI with higher instability of 1500+J/kg MLCAPE with decent deep layer shear around 40-50kts with fairly large CWASP. The primary change is that the low level shear appears to be weaker now or at least more uncertain than in previous models. This will be something to monitor as Tuesday approaches. In either case we will likely to be surface based with capping initially but likely eroding by the late afternoon. Plenty of uncertainty still to be worked out as models still not in alignment in a lot of ways but the concern for severe storms persists with all hazards possible. Wednesday is the day that has changed most drastically, with the delayed trough aloft. This delay in the arrival of the trough actually brings the low through Wednesday afternoon/evening with a highest end severe risk possibly shifting to Wednesday. Still some uncertainty in regard to timing and such but great instability and low to deep layer shear with all hazards being possible. Model differences will certainly still play a role but most of the models show a higher end CWASP over the area indicative of the higher end severe/tornado potential into Wednesday now. It becomes a bit of a cluster beyond midweek as temperatures and flow remain favorable for warm temperatures, instability and the potential additional impactful systems. Specifically, next Friday (possibly Saturday) may provide us with additional storms and severe weather potential. Next week is shaping up to be a very active week of weather for southern WI. Kuroski && .AVIATION... Issued 315 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026 An area of rain showers may continue to push east northeast across portions of the area this afternoon, though they may slowly weaken as they encounter drier air. VFR clouds should continue to spread across the area this afternoon and evening, with ceilings gradually dropping to 3500 feet AGL this evening. A period of low level wind shear conditions are expected from mid- evening into early to mid-morning on Sunday across all terminals. An area of showers and a few storms should move east northeast across the area from mid-evening into the overnight hours, ending by early to mid-morning Sunday. Ceilings should gradually drop into the 1000 to 2000 foot AGL range for Madison and Sheboygan terminals, with higher values toward the Milwaukee and Kenosha terminals. These ceilings should rise above 3000 feet AGL for most of the area Sunday mid-morning into the afternoon, perhaps staying around 2500 feet AGL toward Madison. May see local visibility reductions to 3 to 5 miles within any heavier rain shower areas. Southeast winds this afternoon and evening should become south to southwest later tonight into Sunday morning, becoming gusty by late morning into the afternoon. These winds should prevent a lake breeze from occurring for terminals near Lake Michigan. Wood && .MARINE... Issued 315 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026 Southeast winds return this afternoon and become gusty tonight as a sharper pressure gradient moves over Lake Michigan as low pressure moves into the northern Great Plains. Low pressure will shift into the northern Great Plains during the day Sunday as it deepens to near 29.4 inches. The low will quickly shift east toward Lake Superior Sunday night, reaching the southern shores of the Hudson Bay by daybreak Monday morning. Winds will thus increase further across the open waters Sunday through Sunday night. Will be monitoring for gale potential during this time frame, particularly over the northern half of Lake Michigan. As of this forecast update, forecast models continue to suggest possible gales and headlines may be needed in the coming days. Winds will weaken Monday morning as high pressure of 30.0 inches moves across Ontario. Then, passing low pressure systems will lead to persistently active conditions across Lake Michigan into next week. Will need to monitor thunderstorm development during the Monday- Wednesday time period, as some storms could become strong to severe. Kuroski && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...1 AM Sunday to 4 AM Monday. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.x.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee