####018005118#### FXUS63 KGLD 060852 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 252 AM MDT Mon May 6 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible from mid- morning Monday through early afternoon. Large hail and gusty winds will be the main concerns, although an isolated tornado cannot be entirely ruled out. - Dangerous fire weather conditions are expected along/south of Interstate 70 and west of Highway 83 today and Tuesday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 259 PM MDT Sun May 5 2024 Visible satellite imagery shows cloud cover continues over most of the Goodland CWA this afternoon. There is some clearing occurring in the far western portions of Kit Carson and Cheyenne counties in Colorado. Expect at least partial cloud cover to continue for most locations for the rest of this afternoon and into tonight. Heading into Monday, a boundary will move across the region during the morning hours. There is concern that thunderstorms will initiate along the boundary around mid-morning, moving to the east through early afternoon. A few strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible with large hail and damaging wind being the main concerns with any storms. An isolated tornado cannot be entirely ruled out. For most areas, storms should be out of the area by around 12pm MDT. A few lingering showers/storms may be possible into the early afternoon for areas along and east of a line from McCook to Morland. Gusty winds and low relative humidity values will be a concern from mid-morning Monday through Monday evening. Southeasterly winds will shift to the west behind the boundary, with winds gusting as high as 45 MPH. Minimum relative humidity values may fall as low as 10 percent in the afternoon. A Fire Weather Watch has been issued for Kit Carson and Cheyenne counties in Colorado, and Wallace, Greeley, Wichita, and Logan counties in Kansas for Monday. Fire weather concerns will lessen as RH values improve around sunset. Although limited, a little bit of blowing dust may also be possible. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 250 AM MDT Mon May 6 2024 Long range guidance suggests that a broad upper level low over the north-central CONUS (mid-week) will fracture/divide into two distinct features (late this week), the eastern of which will progress eastward across the Great Lakes/New England and the western of which will retrograde WSW to the 4-Corners/ Intermountain West.. beneath an amplifying upper level ridge along the Pacific Coast. Model solutions diverge considerably thereafter, over the weekend. When synoptic pattern complexity increases.. forecast confidence decreases. With the above in mind, steering the forecast toward climatology appears to be the most prudent course of action. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 930 PM MDT Sun May 5 2024 Not a whole lot of change from 00z taf issuance. KGLD...sub VFR cigs are expected from taf issuance through 13z with winds from the south gusting to around 40kts. Some light drizzle will be possible which may produce some light reductions in visibility. From 14z-01z, southwesterly winds gusting to 40kts in the morning slowly veer to the west, gusting to similar speeds. After 02z, west winds subside below 12kts. Blowing dust may impact the terminal for an hour or so either side of 15z per local blowing dust research findings using the hourly GFS data. After about 16z, the potential narrow plume shifts south and out of the county. For now, have left blowing dust out of the taf given the potential plume being just south of the terminal. If the plume does move over the terminal, research findings show cigs in 1500-2500 ft range (sub VFR) with reduced visibilities (also sub VFR). KMCK...sub VFR cigs are expected from taf issuance through 15z with light drizzle possible. Winds will be from the south to southeast, gusting up to 35kts. From 16z-18z, cigs should improve as winds veer to the southwest, gusting up to 35kts. Its at this time there is a possibility of thunderstorms moving through the terminal, some of which could be severe. From 19z-02z, VFR conditions continue with winds veering to the west, gusting up to 35kts. After 03z, winds subside below 12kts while backing to the southwest. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...Red Flag Warning from 9 AM MDT /10 AM CDT/ this morning to 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ this evening for KSZ013-027-028-041-042. Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for KSZ027-028-041-042. CO...Red Flag Warning from 9 AM this morning to 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ253-254. Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for COZ254. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Wekesser LONG TERM...Vincent AVIATION...99 ####018004730#### FXUS64 KLCH 060854 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 354 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday night) Issued at 252 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024 A warm and muggy early morning ongoing across the region although, thankfully, with a clear radar for the first time in several days. As expected, areas of fog have developed once again where winds have become light or calm and it's expansion is easily observable on night fog satellite channels. Expect fog to continue expanding through the morning, but widespread dense fog isn't anticipated. Where winds have remained generally above five knots, the mixing has kept clouds off the surface streaming around 1.5kft. Visibilities should improve no later than 14Z. Winds will gradually increase through the day in response to a deepening surface low over the central plains that will initialize a severe weather outbreak across Oklahoma and Kansas. Forecast winds look to remain below advisory criteria, but will be in the 15-18 knot range by this afternoon gusting to 25. A moisture plume being advected into the central plains low will get some lift from a weak shortwave traversing the region this afternoon to initialize isolated to scattered convection. The highest PoPs will be across central Louisiana and interior Southeast Texas along the trajectory of the highest moisture. Activity should wane by about 22Z as the shortwave lifts off to the Northeast. The central plains low will keep winds elevated enough tonight into Tuesday morning to prevent any significant fog formation. Drier mid level air streaming up the Texas gulf coast Tuesday will allow for the first day in over a week that should have zero precipitation anywhere across Southeast Texas or Southwest Louisiana. The downside is that with the lack of rainfall, temperatures will climb into the mid to upper 80s Tuesday afternoon and then into the lower 90s Wednesday across central Louisiana and interior Southeast Texas. As has been advertised, this will push heat indices Wednesday afternoon close to triple digits for the first time since last fall. Jones && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Monday) Issued at 252 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024 Thursday will start off unseasonably warm and dry before a cold front sags south into the area. Highs will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s with dewpoints in the 70s. This will yield heat indices at and below the 100 degree mark. As the front works into the area, we will see isolated to scattered showers ramp up mainly across the northern half of the CWA. The rest of the long term will be more mild with temperatures at or below climatological normals. At the surface a weak ridge will build in over the weekend. Aloft, model guidance differs this far out. We could see isolated showers return to the forecast as early as Sunday with a disturbance moving in over the Rockies and into the Plains. Stigger/87 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1153 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024 VFR all sites late this evening, though some decreased VSBYS are noted on area observations along with low clouds lifting north across eastern TX. Have included a stretch of MVFR all sites, mainly VSBY driven for the Acadiana terminals and lower CIGS elsewhere. The VSBYS will improve quickly after sunrise, but the CIGS will stick around a bit longer, through most of the morning at least. Rain chances are generally low except for KAEX, where CAMs are showing some scattered afternoon convection. Generally preserved the inherited PROB group from the previous forecast. Light winds overnight will increase from the SE and become gusty during the afternoon, settling down around sunset. MVFR CIGS progged to return MON evening. 13 && .MARINE... Issued at 252 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024 A light to moderate onshore flow and seas of two to four feet will prevail for much of the upcoming week. No precipitation is expected over the coastal waters until Thursday afternoon into Thursday night with the passage of a cold front. Offshore flow will develop behind the front Friday through the weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 85 70 88 71 / 40 10 10 0 LCH 84 73 85 73 / 20 0 0 0 LFT 86 75 88 76 / 20 0 0 0 BPT 84 74 87 74 / 10 0 0 0 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...66 LONG TERM....87 AVIATION...66