####018005294#### FXUS64 KTSA 070459 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1059 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1058 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 - While some fog is possible overnight into Sunday morning ahead of a cold front, widespread dense fog like what occurred last night is not expected. - A cold front will move across the region on Sunday, with breezy northwest winds behind it. A combination of colder air and low clouds moving into the region behind the front will yield below average cool weather for Sunday. - Above average warm weather is expected Tuesday to Thursday before another cold front brings temps crashing down by the end of the week. - Precipitation chances are very low over the next 7 days. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Sunday) Issued at 1058 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 Current surface analysis depicts an area of low pressure over eastern KS, with a trailing cold front over central KS moving toward the region. Ahead of the front, a cool and relatively moist low level air mass remains in place, but this time with a large area of low cloud over NE OK and NW AR. While skies have cleared over SE OK and some fog is showing up over SW AR, low clouds are either redeveloping or will be surging north into the region later on tonight. All of this is to say that confidence in a widespread dense fog event like what occurred last night does not appear to be in the offing for tonight. Will let the midnight shift reevaluate and issue an advisory if needed. The cold front will enter NE OK after 3 AM and will sweep southeast across the forecast area by midday. Gusty northwest winds are expected behind the front, though not to advisory level. A bank of low cloud dropping south out of Nebraska will surge into the region toward daybreak and will overspread much of the forecast area through the day. There is some potential that areas west of highway 75 could see some rays of sun toward the end of the day. The cold advection behind the front and low cloud will hold highs below average for Sunday. Lacy && .LONG TERM... (Sunday Night through Saturday) Issued at 1058 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 Low clouds will likely persist over portions of eastern OK into western AR into Monday morning. However, as we head into next week the upper trough over the Plains will be shifting east, and the resulting downslope flow will lead to clearing skies, more sunshine and much warmer temps. Highs Tuesday through Thursday will be above average for this time of year, climbing into the 50s and 60s. Another cold front is expected by Thursday night, and this will be a glancing blow of arctic air that is expected to plunge south with a piece of the polar vortex into the Great Lakes and Northeast late next week, sending temps crashing back down to below average for Friday. After another cold day Saturday, a warmup is expected to commence by Sunday. The configuration of the upper flow pattern is not expected to change much over the upcoming 7 days. Northwest flow will prevail aloft over the Plains, with no upper troughing expected to our west. This is a drier pattern for this part of the world and this forecast will be no different. The current negative phase of the AO (Arctic Oscillation) definitely favors a southward plunge of arctic air into the country as is forecast by the models for the latter part of next week, the brunt of which is likely to be to our north and east. The latest GEFS forecasts have the AO increasing back to neutral or even positive by the middle of the month, which would be less favorable for arctic intrusions into the country and may lead to warmer weather for the latter half of the month. Time will tell. Lacy && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1058 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 IFR/MVFR conditions are anticipated across the majority of the CWA tonight into Sunday morning while a dry frontal boundary moves through the region. There remains potential for LIFR conditions for KMLC, which the low level clouds have cleared as of 05z. Behind the frontal passage, breezy north/northwesterly winds and MVFR ceilings are forecast through Sunday afternoon. Once the mid/upper level trof axis exits Sunday evening there are indications for cloud cover to become more scattered west to east. For now will add a mention to eastern Oklahoma and hold onto MVFR for far northwest Arkansas Sunday evening. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 46 34 42 25 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 52 37 50 31 / 0 0 0 0 MLC 51 37 46 27 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 48 31 41 22 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 52 36 44 26 / 0 0 0 0 BYV 53 37 43 28 / 0 0 0 0 MKO 52 36 44 26 / 0 0 0 0 MIO 49 34 40 24 / 0 0 0 0 F10 49 35 44 25 / 0 0 0 0 HHW 51 39 51 30 / 0 0 0 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM....30 AVIATION...20 ####018003626#### FXUS63 KICT 070459 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 1059 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cold front moving through tonight, bringing much colder temperatures for Sunday. - Warming trend starting Monday with well above normal temperatures expected on Tuesday. - Mostly dry conditions are expected to continue through mid next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 339 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 At the surface, low pressure sits over the Nebraska/South Dakota border with heavy snow falling north and east of the low. In our area, breezy southerly winds persist with gusts up to 30 mph in central KS. Low clouds and patchy fog continue to linger in southeast KS, though the fog will likely diminish as we move towards this evening. Tonight, the surface low will move southeast towards northeast KS and into eastern MO/southern IL by Sunday morning. Given southerly surface winds will continue to advect higher dewpoints into south-central and southeast KS tonight, low clouds and fog are likely to develop. The window for fog would be brief as the surface low will push a cold front through the area, bringing colder and drier air by early Sunday morning. Northerly winds will be breezy Sunday morning, slowly diminishing from west to east as we move into Sunday afternoon and the tighter pressure gradient moves east/southeast from our area. High temperatures will be 10-15 degrees below normal with highs in the mid to upper 30s on Sunday afternoon. On Sunday night, northwesterly flow aloft will return to our area as upper-level ridging persists over the western CONUS. A warming trend will start on Monday as close to normal temperatures return. Highs will range from the the lower 40s in southeast KS to the lower 50s in central KS. A surface low will move across ND on Tuesday afternoon as a strong upper-level shortwave moves into the Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley by late Tuesday afternoon. This will increase southerly/southwesterly winds, aiding in well above normal temperatures for Tuesday. Highs will range from the upper 50s in southeast KS to the lower 60s in central KS, which is about 10-15 degrees above normal. The northwesterly flow aloft over the Central Plains will generally persist through the upcoming work week, resulting in multiple shortwaves and clipper-like systems. Discrepancies in model guidance start to increase late in the work week, increasing uncertainty. The GFS is notably stronger with the upper-level shortwaves than the ECMWF, resulting in a stronger surface trough over the Plains. Precipitation chances will remain very low for the end of the work week with below normal temperatures likely on Friday. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1046 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 A cold frontal boundary is working its way across the forecast area, turning winds out of the northwest for central Kansas sites already. ICT is currently experiencing IFR cigs, but once the frontal boundary moves through between 06-08Z, winds will turn out of the northwest and ceilings will lift. Winds will remain breezy out of the northwest through around 18Z with gusts to 25 knots. MVFR cigs are also expected through this time. Ceilings will lift slightly for Sunday afternoon, then clear after 00Z for all sites except CNU. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...GC AVIATION...AMD ####018002279#### FXUS65 KFGZ 070501 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 1001 PM MST Sat Dec 6 2025 .SYNOPSIS...Expect dry conditions and warming daytime temperatures well into next week. && .DISCUSSION...Arizona will be entrenched in a dry northwest flow over the coming week. High pressure aloft, currently located well off the southern California coast, will gradually approach Arizona over the coming days becoming established over California by next Saturday or Sunday. This is a classic dry/mild late fall pattern which will result in warming daytime temperatures through Wednesday or Thursday before plateauing. High temperatures are expected to climb 10 to 15 degrees above average by Wednesday. Otherwise, daytime breezes will be light from a northwesterly direction with a few periods of high clouds as weak passing disturbances brush Arizona. Another feature of note, with dry conditions and mainly clear skies strong nighttime radiational cooling will result in local drainage breezes of 10 to 20 mph south of the Mogollon Rim. At this time there is no breakdown in this pattern in site. && .AVIATION...Sunday 07/06Z through Monday 08/06Z...VFR conditions forecast through the period. Variable winds generally 10 kts or less expected. OUTLOOK...Monday 08/06Z through Wednesday 10/06Z...VFR conditions expected. Look for light and variable winds throughout much of the period, but localized breezy NE winds overnight likely downwind of terrain. && .FIRE WEATHER...Sunday and Monday...Dry conditions with temperatures warming 5-10 degrees above seasonal averages. Winds light and variable around 10 mph or less both days. Min RH's between 25-40% each day. Tuesday through Thursday...Dry conditions with temperatures 10-15 degrees above average Tuesday and 15-20 degrees above average Wednesday and Thursday. Winds light and variable around 10 mph or less each day. Min RH's ranging from 20-35% each day. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...McCollum AVIATION...Konieczny FIRE WEATHER...Bernhart For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff