####018003854#### FXUS64 KSHV 281508 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 1008 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 953 AM GMT Thu Mar 28 2024 As of 9:45 AM today, temperatures are gradually rising into the mid-40s under sunny skies. Later this afternoon, temperature maximums will approach the lower 70s. With weather and observed trends continuing as anticipated, forecast grid adjustments were not necessary at this time. /16/ && .SHORT TERM... (Thursday through Friday) Issued at 337 AM GMT Thu Mar 28 2024 Another chilly start with upper 30s and low to mid 40s. High pressure is all around us with a 1024mb center in Arkadelphia. Lots of our sites calm as a result or a few still N hanging in there, but we will be NE 5 mph or light and variable this morning and then becoming S/SE 5 mph in the afternoon, in the wake of the departing high pressure area. For our Texas counties first, and then across I-49 in the late day E/SE winds will slowly gain speed. We will be very close to late March averages all things considered in the upper 60s and lower 70s for our area highs. Skies remain fair today and tonight with slightly warmer readings at this time tomorrow. Low to mid 40s east of I-49 and lower 50s to the west early tomorrow. And then highs on Friday will make a jump close to 80 in a few spots with widespread mid to upper 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Friday Night through Thursday) Issued at 337 AM GMT Thu Mar 28 2024 The winds will pick up a bit for Friday and Saturday as the Gulf opens up on the back side of this air mass which will be over Alabama in 24 hrs. Then with brisk southerly winds and partly cloudy skies, our weekend still looks to see lower 80s for highs and 60s for lows by Easter Sunday morning, (btw, sunrise is at 7:05 a.m. CDT). We will even see lows in the upper 60s early next week and mid 80s with SW winds on Monday. The clouds will increase quickly, and our next chance for rainfall will be Monday night for the most part as the cold front rolls in early on April fools day. The WPC expectation for our amounts is around a half inch give or take for an average. Our temps will trend back down, but not quite as chilly as this current air mass. However, this next air mass is large and will hang around all week, so still looking for that SW flow potentially hampering our big sun show early week after next, and really for a lot more real estate for the path across many of our surrounding states. /24/ && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 615 AM GMT Thu Mar 28 2024 VFR across area terminals as high pressure dominates the airspace and supports SKC through the morning and into the early afternoon. Moisture return around the western edge of the sfc ridge will support FEW/SCT sub FL100 CU field by the mid afternoon period. Terminal winds will turn through the afternoon, becoming south and southwest. Winds will remain light this afternoon under the center of the sfc ridge, between 3-5KT. Western terminals will see a gradual increase in wind speeds towards the end of the period as the pressure gradient tightens. RK && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 72 51 78 58 / 0 0 0 0 MLU 68 43 75 54 / 0 0 0 0 DEQ 68 44 75 52 / 0 0 0 0 TXK 70 48 77 55 / 0 0 0 0 ELD 69 45 75 54 / 0 0 0 0 TYR 71 52 77 58 / 0 0 0 0 GGG 71 51 77 57 / 0 0 0 0 LFK 74 50 78 57 / 0 0 0 0 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...16 LONG TERM....16 AVIATION...53 ####018004365#### FXUS63 KDDC 281509 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 1009 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 ...Updated Aviation/Key Messages... .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong southwest winds Thursday afternoon will produce an elevated risk of wildfire danger. - Friday will be one of the nicest days of the year, with sunshine, 70s and light winds. - A beautiful Easter weekend is expected, with unseasonably warm temperatures near 80 Easter afternoon. - A cold front will bring a chance of rain late Monday and early Tuesday, followed by much cooler air Tuesday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 254 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 The upper levels over western Kansas will be increasingly under a ridging pattern, bringing subsidence and mostly clear conditions Today. The models indicate some sky cover in the afternoon which might be some invading cirrus as seen already this morning on the GOES nighttime microphysics RBG composite. The 850 mb wind field picks up significantly along the gradient ahead of the developing lee trough. Mixing ought to ensue by mid morning, as gusts in the LAMP guidance and commonly exceeds 30 knots for Hays and Dodge City. The widespread well mixed airmass should find afternoon highs generally around 70 degrees. Winds remain in the 10-15 knots range overnight as the gusts cease after sunset, apparently allowing enough mixing for temperatures to remain relatively mild – above freezing from mid 30s west to the low/mid 40s southeast. A modifying airmass in the northern plains will be warmer as it’s driven southward Friday. Veering surface winds will become lighter as the drier air more efficiently warms through both adiabatic downsloping and strong insolation. Warmest temperatures will likely be ahead of the surface cold front, and although it’s not that cold, it’s still the direction of the colder air. A reasonably wide range of outcomes is possible for highs, as the 25th percentile NBM focuses 80 degrees or higher over just the red hills, but the 75th percentile places just about everything south of a Larned to Garden City line above 80 degrees. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 254 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 Saturday may bring a break in the temperatures to the cooler side as the high pressure influences the central Plains. Models and NBM have the surface winds veering to the southwest again by Sunday, and a return to the warm upper 70s or low 80s appears imminent. For many runs now the models have advertised a cold front and enhanced precipitation period around Monday/Tuesday. This could range from chances for thunderstorms along the frontal passage to rain and or snow behind the front into Monday night. All that is followed by a windy Tuesday and returning to another warming trend at least though the end of the 7 day forecast. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1009 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 VFR/SKC will continue through this TAF cycle, with limited scattered cirrus. Strong S/SW winds will gust to near 30 kts at all airports through 00z Fri. After sunset, south winds will remain elevated, gusting to near 20 kts through the night, in response to a strong low level jet. With the LLJ, included a mention of low level wind shear in all TAFs after 03z Fri. Excellent flying weather will continue Friday, with VFR/SKC and light winds. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 254 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 The far southwest locations, around Liberal and Elkhart to Ulysses and Syracuse will be the overall driest with the highest fire risk Today, approaching red flag for about 4 or 5 hours in the afternoon, if not touching the meteorological criterion for some of that time. Open burning should be strongly discouraged for these areas. On Friday the southwest region will again be in an elevated fire weather risk, and although winds will be far weaker, the low humidity will mean fire can escape control more easily. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Russell LONG TERM...Russell AVIATION...Turner FIRE WEATHER...Russell