####018005562#### FXUS63 KDDC 231025 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 525 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong north to northeast winds will overspread southwest KS Tuesday morning and afternoon behind a cold front. - Severe thunderstorms remain possible across our area Thursday afternoon and evening, although confidence is decreasing. - Another weather system on Saturday reignites severe potential, but confidence again is not high. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 300 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024 Water vapor satellite imagery and RAP upper air analysis reveal west-northwesterly flow is in place atop the central plains, with a strong shortwave trough digging east-southeast over the northern plains/upper Midwest. At the surface, a ~997-mb low is located over southern Ontario, Canada, with an attendant cold front stretching to the southwest. This boundary is progged to pass through southwest KS early Tuesday morning, with strong northerly winds sustained in the 20-30 mph range gusting to 40 mph overspreading our area in its wake. Resulting cold advection will shave roughly 5-10 degrees off afternoon temperatures with highs in the low to mid 70s. Towards sunset, winds will gradually weaken and veer to easterly as surface high pressure builds into the central plains. These upslope winds may support a few scattered showers as 0Z HREF suggests, so inherited slight chance (15-24%) to low-end chance (25-54%) pops were maintained. Otherwise, mostly cloudy skies will keep a lid on significant radiational cooling, with lows staying in the 40s. Daytime Wednesday, a pair of upper level shortwave troughs, one moving onto the west coast of Canada and the other moving onto the far southwest CONUS, will result in broad lee cyclogenesis beginning from eastern CO northward into Canada. Winds will flip to southeasterly in response, and become somewhat strong especially across the western zones. Theta-e advection on the back of this flow will foster mostly cloudy skies across southwest KS, limiting afternoon highs to the mid 60s to low 70s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 300 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024 Medium range ensembles place the upper level trough center roughly over Las Vegas, NV, at 12Z Thursday, followed by a northeastward ejection during the day to near the Four Corners by 00Z Friday, representing a notably slower trend. This slower trend throws another wrench into the potential for severe convection Thursday afternoon and evening as the later arrival of forcing increases confidence the cap (+8-9C 700-mb temperatures) will hold. However, if the cap is breached, the atmosphere will be primed for severe hazards as a deepening surface low in eastern CO will foster strengthening southeast winds/theta-e advection which will draw at least low 60s dewpoints into southwest KS ahead of the dryline that is expected to be located near US-83 by mid-afternoon. Primary convective mode will likely be supercells capable of large hail and damaging winds. Daytime Friday, ensembles suggest the upper level shortwave will wrap up into a closed, negatively tilted low over the northern plains, putting southwest KS well within the dry slot of its attendant surface cyclone. Strong west/west-southwest winds, warm temperatures, and fire weather conditions will be the result. Over the weekend, the subtropical jet wave train will quickly reload as both the ECMWF EPS and GEFS bring another upper level trough from the Desert Southwest at 12Z Saturday into the central plains by 00Z Sunday. Timing of this wave ejection appears much more optimal for convective activity across southwest KS, some potentially severe, but ensembles are fairly pessimistic regarding precipitation potential as probability of QPF > 0.1" is less than 50% for much of the area. Currently, roughly the northern third of our CWA has the best chance of beneficial rainfall as probability of QPF > 0.1" is in the 50-70% range. Once this wave passes Saturday night into Sunday morning, the remainder of the forecast period looks quiet and dry as medium range ensembles show increasing 500-mb heights over the central plains. Cooler air will filter into southwest KS on the back side of the northeast advancing surface low on Sunday which will support afternoon highs in the 70s, but low to mid 80s return on Monday underneath synoptic-scale subsidence. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 525 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024 VFR flying conditions this TAF cycle for all terminals. Latest surface observations indicate a cold front has begun to pass through southwest KS, and this boundary will continue through all terminals over the next couple hours resulting in an abrupt wind shift to the north or northeast. Shortly after sunrise, northerly winds behind the front will increase into the 18-23 kt range with gusts of 28-33 kts, and continue through mid- afternoon. After this time, surface high pressure will begin to build into the central plains, allowing winds to gradually weaken and trend more easterly. By midnight Wednesday morning, easterly winds will be aob 10 kts. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Springer LONG TERM...Springer AVIATION...Springer ####018005774#### FXUS64 KMOB 231025 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 525 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024 ...New NEAR TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .NEAR TERM... (Now through Wednesday) Issued at 524 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024 A deep layer dry airmass remains entrenched across our forecast area early this morning underneath northwesterly flow aloft. A large surface ridge of high pressure extends across the Eastern Seaboard and into the north central Gulf Coast region. Clear skies, light winds, and the dry surface airmass has allowed for decent radiational cooling overnight with temperatures ranging from around 40 degrees to the mid 40s across most locations along and north of the I-10 corridor as of 4 AM CDT, while locations along the coast were averaging in the upper 40s to mid 50s. The dry northwesterly to zonal flow pattern aloft will generally remain prevalent across our forecast area today and tonight while the surface ridge axis remains oriented along the north central Gulf Coast. A southerly low level flow pattern will take shape across our forecast area late this morning into this afternoon, allowing for a gradual increase in low level moisture across the region. Skies will remain mostly sunny through the day, with perhaps some cumulus developing in the southerly flow regime this afternoon. Mostly clear skies and dry conditions are expected again tonight. There could be some very patchy light fog development in a few spots early this morning and again late tonight/early Wednesday morning, but confidence in occurrence and the anticipated very patchy/limited nature of fog development precluded any mention in the forecast. A weak upper level trough will move across the Tennessee Valley and southeast states on Wednesday. An associated weak frontal boundary may push into central portions of MS/AL and perhaps into the vicinity of far northern portions of our forecast area by Wednesday afternoon. A slight increase in boundary layer moisture and weak convergence along this boundary could result in the development of isolated showers and thunderstorms by late Wednesday afternoon, but the bulk of the latest guidance indicates that any isolated convection that develops should remain to the north of our region. We kept POPs just below mentionable levels around 10% over far northern parts of our CWA by Wednesday afternoon for now. Highs today are forecast to range in the mid to upper 70s inland and in the lower 70s along the immediate coast and beaches. Lows tonight should average between 50-55 over most locations along and north of I-10 and in the mid 50s to lower 60s along the immediate coast. Temperatures on Wednesday should warm into the upper 70s to lower 80s across most of the region. The rip current risk looks to remain LOW through the middle to latter part of the week, before increasing by the end of the week and especially into this weekend. /21 && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Monday) Issued at 524 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024 The area remains mostly dry through the remainder of the week and weekend before rain chances rebound early next week. Northwesterly flow aloft prevails through early Friday morning as the region remains on the periphery of an approaching ridge to our west. As the ridge slides overhead, flow aloft turns westerly to southwesterly in the afternoon on Friday. Down at the surface, a surface high over the western Atlantic maintains its grip over the eastern Gulf and the local area through the weekend. A front will dip into parts of the Mid South and Southeast on Thursday, but it is still expected to hang up to our north thanks to the surface high nosing into the local area. Can't rule out a few showers Thursday afternoon as the front nudges toward the Highway 84 corridor, but confidence is too low to include POPs in the forecast at this time. Onshore flow becomes more established as we roll into the weekend, pumping in plenty of moisture to the area. Similar to Thursday, a few showers are possible, but not likely in the afternoon hours this weekend as a few shortwaves pivot across the ridge aloft with ample moisture streaming into the region. Rain chances begin to increase late Monday into Tuesday ahead of the next cold front. Beach Note: Rip current risk increases to MODERATE on Friday with a HIGH RISK expected by Saturday as onshore flow continues to increase at the beaches. RCMOS probabilities indicate a high likelihood of the risk remaining HIGH through at least Sunday at all local beaches. 07/mb && .MARINE... Issued at 524 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024 No marine impacts anticipated through the week. Onshore flow is forecast to strengthen with a gradual build in seas late Friday and into the weekend. /21 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 76 55 82 60 83 61 81 66 / 0 0 0 0 10 0 0 0 Pensacola 75 60 78 62 81 63 79 67 / 0 0 0 0 10 0 0 0 Destin 73 62 76 65 79 66 78 68 / 0 0 0 0 10 0 0 0 Evergreen 77 51 82 57 84 57 85 60 / 0 0 0 0 10 0 0 0 Waynesboro 77 51 82 58 85 58 85 62 / 0 0 10 0 10 0 0 0 Camden 76 51 79 56 82 58 83 61 / 0 0 10 0 10 0 0 0 Crestview 77 50 83 56 85 57 84 61 / 0 0 0 0 10 0 0 0 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: www.weather.gov/mob