####018005435#### FXUS64 KAMA 141856 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 156 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026 ...New LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1222 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026 Low chances for showers and thunderstorms today. Tomorrow, higher chances for thunderstorm is forecast, some of which could be severe. Below normal temperatures persist today and tomorrow. Much hotter temperatures are still expected on Wednesday. High probabilities hold for widespread 100s. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Monday night) Issued at 1222 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026 Low to medium rain chances coupled with below average temperatures continue to be the main highlights of the short term period. Northerly winds and high-end low to mid level theta-e values prevail today and allow the combination of low clouds and spotty showers to continue through the early afternoon. Cloud coverage will eventually disperse later this afternoon and surface winds will steadily veer from northeast to east before ultimately becoming light and variable tonight. The weak shower activity from this morning will also cease in the next couple of hours, that is if precipitation is still making it to the ground as we have not received any confirmation with METAR data. Highs today still may not escape the 60s and 70s due to how long we have mitigated day time heating. Later this evening, convection off the high terrain in New Mexico will transition into the western Texas Panhandle. Thunderstorms that hold together in our area will likely not be severe. Most guidance this morning suggests that storms will struggle to sustain themselves due to lingering surface inhibition in our area. Still, if storms are able to lift above the cap tonight, they will have a few hundred joules of elevated CAPE to work with and permit another small round of convection for the Texas Panhandle tonight. While moisture content remains high over the CWA tonight, cloud coverage will increase once more and low level clouds are expected to be spread out across the region. Tomorrow, 12Z guidance, including the NBM, have raised high temperatures into the 80s across the combined Panhandle due to a quicker erosion of cloud cover forecast in the morning hours. Temperatures will still be below average for this time of year, with highs perhaps only reaching the mid 80s. Monday afternoon, another surface trough will eject eastward out of New Mexico and promote thunderstorms in the western and central combined Panhandles. Thunderstorm coverage is still fairly uncertain amongst CAMs as some suggest only a few isolated storms will make it, while others suggest thunderstorms will be more scattered across the region. Instability and effective shear will be sufficient enough for storms to become severe. Inverted Vs and high LCLs from forecast soundings suggest that damaging winds will be the primary hazard for severe storms. However, a large hail threat may also be present for storms than remain more isolated with rotating updrafts. Soundings suggest that some discrete convection is possible mainly across our northern zones, while the storm mode may be more clustered and multicellular to the south. Convective activity will continue to push eastward Monday night and eventually dissipate by midnight or sooner. Rangel && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through next Saturday) Issued at 127 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026 With broad scale troughing in the eastern US and an eventual return to zonal flow across the CONUS, we look to keep a fairly active weather pattern through much of the extended. A return to warmth is expected Tuesday, with highs back in the 90s for the CWA. By Wednesday, strong warm air advection and clear skies will result in triple digits surging into the region. Global models have consistently shown widespread 100s with some locations possibly exceeding 105 degrees. Heat products looks to become necessary in the coming days if trends hold. A strong cold front Wednesday night will allow temperatures on Thursday to fall back into the 80s. Repeat shortwaves as the H500 pattern becomes more zonal should let temperatures be near or slightly above average for the rest of the extended. Though, some models are showing signs that WAA will stay strong despite frontal passages, and we could be back in the 100s by the weekend. Chances for precipitation remain active each day of the week except Wednesday. The moisture plume looks to shift eastward with time, so PoPs are highest in our eastern zones for the rest of this week and the weekend. Rangel && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1222 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026 MVFR ceilings still linger over KAMA this afternoon, but are expected to become VFR by 19Z. There's a chance ceilings could stay OVC and MVFR beyond 19Z, but they should not hold past 20Z. Low clouds may return to the FA Monday morning. MVFR conditions may be present at KAMA and KDHT between 12Z to 17Z if trends hold. Light winds continue at all sites for the next 24 hours. Rangel && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...55 LONG TERM....55 AVIATION...55 ####018007927#### FXUS62 KMLB 141857 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 257 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026 ...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 257 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026 - Scattered to locally numerous afternoon and evening showers and lightning storms will persist into this week. A few strong storms will be possible each day, producing frequent lightning strikes, gusty winds up to 40-50 mph, and locally heavy rainfall from slow-moving storms. - Hot and humid conditions will lead to heat indices 100-107 and a Moderate to Major HeatRisk. Residents and visitors should remain well-hydrated and seek breaks in the shade or A/C during the heat of the day. For more info about HeatRisk and heat safety tips, visit Heat.gov. - A moderate risk of life-threatening rip currents persists at all central Florida Atlantic beaches. Always swim near a lifeguard and never enter the water alone! && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 257 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026 Currently-Tonight...Low level offshore flow persists but is generally weak and should see the east coast sea breeze push inland near to just west of the I-95 corridor. Already starting to see some isolated to scattered showers/storms developing across the area with daytime heating. However, greatest storm coverage looks to be toward late afternoon/evening, generally near to southeast of I-4 corridor and near/inland of I-95 where sea breeze/outflow boundary collisions are favored. Westerly steering winds decrease through late day, and while some shifts in storms back to the coast will occur, storm motion may still be slow and erratic across the area. Deep moisture (PW 2-2.2") and slow storm motion will lead to torrential downpours with persistent storms, producing a quick 2-4 inches of rainfall locally in a 60-90 min period. While this will mostly produce minor flooding issues, there may be an isolated spot or two that sees totals between 4-6 inches, which may lead to a localized flash flooding threat. Therefore, a Marginal Risk (5-14%) of excessive rainfall exists across much of east central Florida this afternoon and evening. 15Z sounding from the Cape shows some pockets of drier air aloft, which will also support strong gusts to 40-50 mph and frequent lightning from a few stronger storms. However, as is usual with summer convection, can't completely rule localized damaging gusts to 60 mph from a storm or two. Temps at 500mb are around -6 to -7C, which may also lead to isolated reports of small hail. Convection diminishes and shifts slowly offshore through late evening, with drier conditions forecast overnight. Remaining warm and humid with lows in the mid to upper 70s for much of the area tonight. Monday-Wednesday...Subtropical ridge axis continues to remain south of the area through early to midweek, continuing offshore (W/SW) low level winds across the area. PW values of 1.8-2.0 inches will remain sufficient enough to support scattered to locally numerous showers and storms each afternoon and evening. Should still see the east coast sea breeze form each afternoon, but the offshore winds should stall the sea breeze near to just inland of the I-95 corridor, with greatest coverage of convection focusing toward the coast. This activity will shift offshore each day, with a few stronger storms continuing to be possible. Main storm threats will continue to be strong gusty winds, frequent lightning and locally heavy rainfall producing minor flooding. Hot and humid conditions will persist, with highs in the low to mid 90s and peak heat index values reaching 100-107 degrees each day. Little relief will occur overnight, with lows in the mid to upper 70s. This will all contribute to a Moderate to Major HeatRisk across the region each day. For more info about HeatRisk and heat safety tips, visit Heat.gov. Thursday-Sunday...Mid-level ridge across the western Atlantic will nudge northwest across Florida through late week before shifting back south as a passing disturbance aloft crosses the southeastern United States. At the surface a weak frontal boundary will slide southward toward north Florida and stall, keeping ridge axis either near or just south of the region. This will continue to produce scattered afternoon/evening showers and storms each day, focused toward the eastern side of the Florida peninsula. Low level winds may be able to become more southerly into late week allowing the east coast sea breeze to push a little farther inland and focusing late day boundary collisions west of I-95. However, an offshore steering flow will still help push scattered showers/storms back to the coast and offshore through each evening. No significant change to the heat into late week and weekend, with highs still above normal in the low to mid 90s and humid conditions still producing mostly 100-107 heat index values each day. This will continue a Moderate to Major HeatRisk each day. && .MARINE... Issued at 257 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026 Mostly favorable boating conditions forecast to continue through the upcoming work week. Subtropical ridge axis will remain south of the waters, leading to an offshore flow pattern through at least midweek. W/SW winds in the morning will become S/SE into the afternoon and evening as the east coast sea breeze forms and shifts inland each day. Wind speeds will generally be less than 15 knots, but may briefly increase to 15-18 knots offshore each evening. Seas will range from 1-3 feet. Main concern for boaters will be for scattered offshore moving storms, primarily from mid afternoon through the evening hours that will continue to be a threat each day (including through this evening). Main storm threats will be frequent cloud-to-water lightning strikes, gusty winds in excess of 34 kts, and torrential downpours. Winds and seas will be locally higher in the vicinity of any storms. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFs) Issued at 138 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026 East coast sea breeze has developed, but offshore (WSW-SW) flow 5-10 kts is slowing the inland push along the Space and Treasure Coasts, and pinning the boundary to the coast to the north. Winds will be shifty at KTIX-KSUA before becoming onshore (SSE-SE) 5-10 kts. ISO SHRA have developed INVOF of KVRB-KFPR, and a few SHRA ongoing here and there across the rest of ECFL. Low confidence in convective evolution this afternoon-evening as chaotic storm boundaries will have a significant influence in TS development. General trends are for TSRA/SHRA to gradually increase in coverage, with highest coverage along the sea breeze collision near the coastal corridor, then gradually shift offshore. Chances at KMCO-KSFB high enough to continue TEMPOs. Have also added TEMPOs for Treasure Coast terminals, and PROB30 for KMLB. TS expected to dissipate after 02Z, but could linger as late as midnight. Quiet overnight once TS dissipates or moves offshore. Rinse repeat Monday as offshore flow favors a sea breeze collision and high TS chances on the eastern side of the peninsula. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 77 92 77 92 / 60 60 30 50 MCO 76 93 76 93 / 40 40 20 50 MLB 77 93 77 93 / 60 60 40 60 VRB 75 93 75 93 / 50 60 40 60 LEE 78 91 77 92 / 20 30 10 30 SFB 77 93 77 94 / 50 50 20 50 ORL 77 92 77 93 / 40 40 20 50 FPR 75 92 74 92 / 40 60 30 60 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Weitlich AVIATION...Haley ####018003933#### FXUS63 KOAX 141857 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 157 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Temperatures in the upper 70s to just over 80 are on tap for Monday, with a light shower or two possible after 10 PM. - Our next chance for any thunderstorms appears to be on Wednesday, especially over far eastern Nebraska and western Iowa. - Wednesday is also expected to be hot, with very high fire danger forecast across extreme northeast Nebraska. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 154 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026 Today and Tomorrow: Water vapor imagery this afternoon features increasingly depressed flow over the eastern third of the CONUS, influenced by a shortwave digging into the Ohio River Valley while another mid/upper wave traverses the Northern High and Great Plains. Northwesterly winds and the increasing effects of high pressure are being felt this afternoon, with the only criticism being slightly gusty winds at 20- 30 mph, while temperatures sit the the otherwise comfy confines of the lower 70s. Winds become nearly calm overnight, and result in lows that may beat most model guidance, as our recent warm streak has dulled the effects of bias correction. We've got our lows hitting the upper 40s to just over 50. West-southwesterly winds take hold of the area tomorrow, giving us a bit of a bump in temperatures via downslope flow, before a cold front moves in from the northwest after 10 PM. We're carrying some low-end chances for rain as they pass (around 15-20%), but both the amounts and the spatial coverage will be too small for any effect to be felt from them. Tuesday and Beyond: By Tuesday, the upper pattern features northwesterly flow aloft, with the main jet streak pointed from BC/Albert into Iowa, carrying a shortwave/speed max through it into the area. Before any rain chances arrive, we're able to top out in the upper 70s to lower 80s, and rain/storm chances glance the northeastern Nebraska and parts of western Iowa. As far as any impactful weather goes, Wednesday will be the day to watch -- carrying temperatures that soar into the low-to-mid 90s, very high fire danger in northeast Nebraska, and some early afternoon/evening showers and storms across southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa. A pair of local surface lows will arrive from the west/northwest, scouring out moisture behind them while organizing severe ingredients to their southeast. The current timing of their passage limits the threat risk area to be highest southeast of the forecast area, but a slower arrival would mean quickly expanding severe odds that would carry all hazards before cooler temperatures stream in behind overnight. Thursday through the rest of the forecast sees building troughing to the west of the area, with the return of a summertime feel to the forecast. A cooler Thursday turns into a warmer Friday and Saturday, with late-in-the-day thunderstorm chances returning via low-level jet nosing or from the west after initiating off of boundaries up the High Plains. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1205 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026 VFR conditions are in place this breezy afternoon, with northwesterly winds gusting to 25 kts, which is on the upper end of forecast guidance for today. Shallow clouds at FL040-060 dot the sky, while gradually lifting and diminishing later this afternoon. Winds will diminish through the afternoon, falling nearly calm overnight before returning out of the west- southwest around sunrise tomorrow morning, lasting through the end of the TAF period. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Petersen AVIATION...Petersen ####018007737#### FXUS62 KMHX 141857 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 257 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Adjusted PoPs over the next 24 hours given recent trends in guidance. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Marginal to slight risk of severe thunderstorms expected this afternoon into the evening. Unsettled weather pattern lingers into late week. 2) Heat Advisory remains in effect for all but coastal areas this afternoon. Dangerous heat likely to return late week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...A hot and muggy afternoon across ENC today with widespread temps in the mid 80s to 90s and heat indices around 100-109F inland. A diurnal Cu field along and out ahead of the seabreeze has developed this afternoon with widely scattered showers and thunderstorms already developing along the seabreeze today. Latest RAP mesoanalysis shows widespread MLCAPE values around 2000-3000 J/kg, low level lapse rates of 8-9C/km, and deep layer shear values around 20-25 kts across ENC as of this update. With the seabreeze providing the focus for lift, expect ongoing showers and thunderstorms to increase in coverage and intensity as the afternoon wears on under this favorable environment for thunderstorm development. With ample CAPE, and enough lift a few of these storms could become strong to severe in nature bringing a threat for wet microbursts (up to 60 mph gusts), frequent lightning, and heavy rain. Given the expected scattered nature of this activity have capped PoPs at Chance as not everyone will see rain and thunderstorms today. Seabreeze thunderstorms gradually push inland through the afternoon and begin to dissipate after sunset. However, as this occurs deep layer shear will be on the increase with the approach of an upper level trough, peaking at 25-35 kts out ahead of an approaching cold front with the highest shear values noted along our northern periphery. This will lead into our next potential thunderstorm threat from the west. Latest guidance suggests broken linear segments of thunderstorms will develop along a surface trough to our west this afternoon across central NC/VA and push E'wards this evening and overnight, likely reaching the area after sunset. While instability is forecast to be waning, with enough shear these segments could hold together long enough to promote a second strong to severe thunderstorm threat into tonight. Greatest risk for this second round of storms looks to occur across our northern zones tonight with this activity pushing off the coast by about 2AM Monday. This activity would once again bring a threat for strong and damaging wind gusts (40-60 mph) to the area. SPC has noted much of the area under a slight risk (level 2/5) for severe thunderstorms today mainly west of the coast and OBX with a marginal risk (level 1/5) for severe thunderstorms noted elsewhere across the coast and OBX. Beyond tonight, overall pattern through the week remains at least marginally conducive for shower and thunderstorm threats each afternoon and evening. The next best chance for stronger storms appears to be Thursday into Friday ahead of a stronger front where deeper shear will likely be present with equally strong instability. KEY MESSAGE 2...As expected higher heat and humidity have hung on today with widespread heat indices around or above 105F and have kept the current heat advisory going until 00Z. Will note given ongoing convection this heat advisory may be cancelled early. Once the first front passes on Monday, a relatively cooler couple of days are likely. Heat and humidity will likely return again on Thursday and Friday ahead of the late-week front with more widespread heat index values of 105-110 forecast. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR conditions across the terminals early this afternoon. Winds become gusty this afternoon before isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms develop over the area. Sct storms likely along the sea breeze this afternoon with potential for more robust convection likely to enter from the west later this afternoon and evening, potentially impacting terminals through 03-04z. A few storms could be strong with damaging gusts exceeding 40 kt along with tempo sub-VFR. Behind the convection, another pre- dawn bank of low stratus could develop inland. Fog appears less likely overnight with winds unlikely to decouple. Outlook: Front clears area later Monday although iso to sct shower and thunderstorm risk will extend into Tuesday and Wednesday. More widespread convective threat returns Thursday into Friday with stronger front. Overnight fog and stratus threat possible each morning. && .MARINE... Once again little in the way of changes to the marine forecast as we do expect conditions to worsen this afternoon as the pressure gradient tightens between a surface trough and cold front to our west and a ridge of high pressure to the east. SW winds are already about 10-20 kts with a few gusts up to 25 kts noted across our coastal waters already. With the aforementioned cold front not forecast to cross our waters until Mon morning expect widespread 15-25kt SW winds with gusts up around 25-30 kts across our coastal waters, Pamlico, Croatan/Roanoke Sounds and Neuse River this afternoon and tonight. This coincides with ongoing small craft advisories. Elsewhere slightly lighter winds will be in place and dont plan on expanding ongoing SCA's. These elevated winds continue into Mon morning, but as a cold front tracks across our waters winds will ease as the pressure gradient relaxes with winds lowering to 5-15 kts with a few gusts up towards 20 kts across all waters. Winds will also become NE'rly behind the front. 2-4 ft seas this afternoon will increase to 4-6 ft across our coastal waters this evening and remain elevated into Monday morning before lowering down to 3-5 ft by 11AM Mon. This will bring an end to our small craft advisories. Lighter winds and lower seas are then forecast through the rest of the period with the front hanging around the area. Outside of SCA conditions, there will be a renewed risk of showers and thunderstorms especially after nightfall as more organized convection inland migrates over area waters after 00z. Environment will be favorable for a few stronger storms with gusts in excess of 40 kt. Outlook (Mon night through Sat): Periodic nocturnal and early morning risk of showers and thunderstorms is possible each weeknight, although most likely odds will be Thursday night into Friday ahead of stronger front approaching area waters. This front will also be the next focus of widespread SCA conditions with a low risk of Gales across the outer waters. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ029-044>047- 079>081-090>092-094-193-194-198-199. Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ195- 196-199-204-205. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 8 AM EDT Monday for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 3 AM EDT Monday for AMZ137-231. Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 5 AM EDT Monday for AMZ150. Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Monday for AMZ152-154-156- 158. && $$ DISCUSSION...MS/RCF AVIATION...CQD/MS MARINE...MS/RCF