####018004644#### FXUS64 KHUN 041012 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 412 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 229 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025 - Very low chance (20% or less) for sleet mixing in with rain showers around sunrise in southwest portion of north Alabama. - Chances for rain at times through Sunday. The highest chances will be late this afternoon into tonight before ending Friday morning. - Temperatures remain a few degrees below normal the next several days. && .NEAR TERM... (Today and Tonight) Issued at 229 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025 Temperatures have dipped into the upper 20s to around 30 this morning. Patchy BR has developed, but with thick mid and high level clouds now arriving, the risk of freezing fog may tend to go down. Rain showers were expanding northeast into central and northern MS. These may clip our southwest counties early this morning, perhaps mixing with ice pellets. Will monitor this precipitation trend, but at this time impacts are not anticipated. This first wave of precipitation may tend to dissipate rather quickly upon reaching a rather dry layers over AL and middle TN. Thus, will keep the PoPs low this morning. The break in the precipitation should allow temperatures to warm into the 40s for afternoon highs. The next wave of rainfall will quickly develop this afternoon over the lower MS valley and arrive by late afternoon in northwest AL into southern middle TN. This will shift east through the evening and overnight hours. Forecast soundings indicate that wintry precipitation would not be a concern in our forecast area, remaining just to our northwest. Rain will end from west to east late tonight, possibly lingering in our eastern counties until just after sunrise. Overnight lows will be in the middle to upper 30s. && .SHORT TERM... (Friday through Saturday) Issued at 1113 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025 By Friday afternoon, expect dry conditions to be the rule. Not much cold air behind this initial front, as it basically stalls over southern Alabama and Georgia. So no real push to much colder air into the area. However, lingering cloud cover will likely keep highs a bit cooler. Highs on Friday are expected to climb into the mid 40s. Saturday should be a bit warmer, with zonal flow continuing and some clearing in the afternoon. Highs should return to the lower 50s. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Tuesday) Issued at 1113 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025 Some clearing Saturday night, but guidance shows mostly cloudy conditions returning around midnight and continuing through the overnight hours. Lows in the 35 to 40 degree range look reasonable. The main feature to watch through the long term forecast will be the passage of a 500 MB trough through the eastern CONUS. Through the weekend, the trough will amplify and move from the Plains into the eastern CONUS. In association a surface low pressure system looks to pass through the area from Sunday and Sunday night. Deterministic models maintain high uncertainty regarding if any precip will be present with the frontal passage. As such, stuck with blended guidance that reflects the low chances of rain (~20%) from Sunday night. If we do receive precip, especially near daybreak Monday morning, we will have to keep an eye on temps as they will likely near or just below freezing which could produce brief and hopefully non-impactful wintry precip. We have very low confidence in this however, just an interesting (non-impactful) tidbit to keep an eye on. Through the beginning of the work week, zonal flow aloft paired with high pressure influence will promote non impactful weather. Temps will have the opportunity to warm slightly with highs in the 40s and 50s. The forecast becomes slightly more uncertain from Wednesday forward as models struggle to resolve our next system. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 411 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025 Ceilings of 060-120agl (VFR) will lower to 030-060agl by 18-20Z. By 23-00Z, -RA and ceilings of 020-030agl (MVFR) will overspread north AL and southern middle TN. By 02-03Z, ceilings will lower below 010agl (IFR) with widespread -RA or RA and BR with visibility of 3-5SM expected. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...17 SHORT TERM....KTW LONG TERM....RAD AVIATION...17 ####018003785#### FXUS63 KOAX 041013 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 413 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Bitterly cold temperatures are expected this morning, ranging from around 3 degrees above zero to 10 degrees below zero. - We are in an weather pattern with a few chances for snow over the coming week. The next chance will be Saturday morning into Sunday morning. - Temperatures will fluxuate from the teens and 20s for highs to the 30s and 40s through the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 409 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025 Single digit temperatures above and below zero are ongoing early this morning for most areas. Stratus developed yesterday evening over the southeastern part of Nebraska, which has helped limit some of the radiational cooling others have experienced. A few locations that were impacted by the lower clouds are still hanging on to the double digits. Clouds are starting to move out; however, their lingering presence has impacted potential low temperatures over that area. Temps have been adjusted upward as a result. Thursday high temperatures have also increased a degree or two in locations. Teens and 20s are expected for much of the region with a few 30s toward Knox, Boone, and Antelope counties. A broad, mid-level trough will extend west to east from Montana to New England, and south into the Blue Ridge Mountains (Virginia) over the next several days. Northwest flow will be in place over the Great Plains and Central High Plains, with a ridge just off of the West Coast. A series of embedded shortwaves will move through the larger pattern, bringing a couple of chances for precipitation. After a brief reprieve from the cold on Friday (highs in the 30s with a few isolated 40s), the area gets hit with another storm system. High temperatures are currently expected to be in the upper 20s to upper 30s on Saturday. Snow will move in from the north Saturday morning with a 20-30% chance from I-80 northward, with a 40- 60% chance for areas toward Creighton and Winside. Snow chances increase to 30-60% in the afternoon for areas toward I-80. This system will exit the region Saturday night/Sunday morning from west to east. Some accumulations will be possible, particularly for areas north of the Platte River. Models handling of this system has changed quite a bit from 24 hours ago, so continue to monitor the forecast for additional changes as we come closer to the event. Colder temps are expected Sunday as the shortwave exits the region. Expect highs in the teens and 20s and lows in the single digits above zero to around 10 degrees. Another warm up into the 30s (a few low 40s possible) will arrive Monday and Tuesday as the ridge over the Pacific shifts east. Another weak disturbance will slide across the region on Tuesday, bringing a chance for the northeastern portion of the area to get clipped with a snow shower. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1058 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025 Wind speeds continue to weaken as surface high pressure settles into the region. VFR conditions are expected to prevail, but a thin band of MVFR ceilings is passing over LNK currently. This should quickly move out of the TAF site. Overnight, winds become light and variable with clearing skies. As surface high pressure moves east of the area during the morning, southerly winds return. Wind speeds gradually increase by afternoon with a few gusts possible. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ANW AVIATION...Chehak ####018002603#### FXUS63 KUNR 041013 AFDUNR Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY National Weather Service Rapid City SD 313 AM MST Thu Dec 4 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Next chance of light snow tonight through Fri morning - More light snow Sat/Sat night - Warm and windy weather for Mon/Tue && .DISCUSSION...(Today Through Wednesday) Issued at 311 AM MST Thu Dec 4 2025 Upper air analysis shows northwesterly flow continuing across the central Great Plains...within broad cyclonic flow stretching across the eastern 2/3rds of the CONUS. Surface analysis shows strong high pressure across eastern SD into MN/IA. A warm front is crossing the CWA...with surface obs showing temps steady or slowly rising overnight. Some locations in the downsloping northeastern foothills have seen temps rise 20 degrees in the last 3-4 hours. High today will much warmer than yesterday...generally in the 30s to mid 40s. A surface trough will bring breezy northwest this morning. Dry weather is expected, but clouds will be increasing ahead of the next wave, which rolls in tonight/Friday. Light snow will begin late this evening through Friday morning, but little to no QPF is expected across most locations. Weak upsloping will redevelop across the northern Black Hills, which could bring 1-3" of accumulation. After the next brief dry period, from Fri PM through Fri night, a disturbance approach, accompanied by a 170kt jet streak crossing the northern Rockies into the High Plains. A surface low is progged to cross the Nebraska, drawing cooler air back into the CWA...with highs in the 20s to low 30s. Another round of light snow will push through...but this time a bit more widespread. Most areas are expected to see up to an inch or two over an 18-20 hour period...maybe slightly higher amounts again across the northern Black Hills. Generally unsettled NW flow continues early next week. However, models are showing enough warm air moving in to potentially bring temps in the 50s Monday and Tuesday. With more disturbances crossing the area, gusty winds are expected. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Thursday Night) Issued At 1006 PM MST Wed Dec 3 2025 MVFR/IFR conditions in low clouds will slowly erode overnight as drier air filters into the region tonight with VFR conditions expected area-wide after 08-10z. && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. WY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...13 AVIATION...SE