####018006472#### FXUS63 KGLD 070514 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 1014 PM MST Sat Dec 6 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - NW winds peak by 2 PM MT. Gusts of 50 MPH or less expected. - Fog late tonight into Sunday morning west of the KS/CO border. May form a film of ice on bridges. - Similar weather pattern continues next week with a warming trend Monday and Tuesday. - Cooler weather may return after Wednesday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 158 PM MST Sat Dec 6 2025 Light showers around Akron, CO are reaching the ground. As such have added back the mention of light rain to the forecast for East Central CO for the afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 1243 PM MST Sat Dec 6 2025 Latest upper air analysis shows the ridge over the West Coast and a low over Southeast Canada. Northwest flow continued between the two features. Within the flow a subtle short wave trough had moved through the forecast area during the morning. Clouds and possibly flurries/sprinkles had accompanied it. Behind a pre-front trough northwest winds were gusty for the western half of the forecast area where the inversion had eroded earlier, allowing the stronger winds to reach the ground. For the rest of the day the northwest winds will peak in intensity by 2 PM MT, then decline, becoming light by sunset. The strongest winds will be over East Central CO where the inversion eroded earliest in the day, and the stronger winds are closer to the surface. East of there winds will decline due to the inversion remaining in place or the stronger winds being higher above ground due to the decreasing elevation. Tonight a surface high will move through behind a weak cold front. After midnight there may be weak surface convergence with the winds behind the surface high, along with moisture advection. Models have this occurring west of the CO/KS border. Visibility may fall to less than a mile in the fog. Looking at different model soundings, the saturated layer where the fog should form is either quite shallow, or not there at all. This raises doubts about the thickness of the fog, and if the fog will actually form. The environment is favorable for fog to form given the weak convergence with moisture advection. Confidence for fog to form is 50%. Confidence for visibility to be less than a half mile in the fog is 30%. Sunday morning the fog should end an hour or two after sunrise. The sky should be nearly cloud free due to subsidence over the forecast area and then laminar flow moving in later in the day. Weak warm air advection will occur during the afternoon as the cooler air mass shifts east of the forecast area. Westerly winds will be light to breezy, with the breezy winds over East Central CO. Sunday night laminar upper level flow continues over the forecast area. Winds will be light from the southwest. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 1243 PM MST Sat Dec 6 2025 Monday a subtle upper level short wave trough moves over the forecast area. At the surface a trough accompanies it, turning the winds to the northwest. Large dew point depressions are seen in the soundings with the trough passage. As such, don't expect much more than high clouds to accompany the trough passage. A similar weather pattern continues for this part of the forecast, with northwest upper level flow over the High Plains. Tuesday's high temperatures continue to warm ahead of the next cold front on Wednesday. Despite the unseasonably warm temperatures, this will still be 10 degrees below record values. Tuesday night a stronger upper level short wave trough will move through the flow over the Midwest, remaining northeast of the forecast area. Precipitation chances accompanying it continue to remain north of the forecast area. A cold front will move through the forecast area. However, the cold air advection does not last long. By Wednesday afternoon warm air advection begins as a surface low forms over the High Plains ahead of the next cold front passage. The warm air advection will serve to dampen the cooling affect of the cold front passage. Thursday another upper level short wave trough moves through the Plains. The cold front associated with it may be as strong as the one from Tuesday night, possibly stronger; not sure at this time range. Model consensus also keeps the precipitation with this trough north of the forecast area. Winds behind this trough passage could be breezy. However model consensus data does not show that at this point, which is reasonable given the time range. For both days models have slowed down the progression of the upper level short wave troughs. After Thursday models disagree regarding the timing of another upper level short wave trough; will it move through the upper level flow over the Plains, or will it move east and become absorbed into the closed low over Southeast Canada. The jet stream will be slightly further east if the short wave trough becomes part of the closed low. If the short wave trough instead moves southeast over the Plains, that will push the jet stream more westerly. This would mean a favorable route for cooler air to move over the forecast area, and potentially chances for precipitation. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1011 PM MST Sat Dec 6 2025 Stratus and MVFR ceilings are forecast to be in place over the MCK terminal to start the period with eventual IFR ceilings taking place. Some fog is possible but at this time not forecasting anything lower than 3SM due to the stratus in place. GLD however has a bit better potential for fog and freezing fog especially closer to 12Z. There is a 10-20% chance for dense fog as well along with 20-30% chance for ceilings falling below airport minimum. Remain aware for icing. Conditions for each terminal are forecast to improve with GLD first and then MCK during the afternoon as the stratus leaves. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ UPDATE...JTL SHORT TERM...JTL LONG TERM...JTL AVIATION...Trigg ####018004062#### FXUS63 KABR 070516 AAB AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 1116 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Another round of light snow moves into north central South Dakota later this afternoon, continues southeast this evening. Around an inch or less accumulations with this system. Freezing drizzle may mix in at times this evening across central SD. - Band of light snow moves west to east Sunday (40-60%). Inch or less type accumulations. - Frontal passage Tuesday afternoon to generate northwest winds with gusts in excess of 50 mph through the evening/overnight. && .UPDATE... Issued at 528 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 Added areas of freezing drizzle this evening across central SD. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track as light snow moves southeast. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 145 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 Pair of bands of snow continue this afternoon, one migrating out of the CWA into east central South Dakota, the other poised on our doorstep in North Dakota headed into Mobridge/Aberdeen. CAMS continue to support this second feature headed into our area to dissipate, with only an inch type accumulations. 1030+ mb high pressure system moves over North Dakota extending south southeast into the northeast of the state tonight. Warm advection as this feature retreats Sunday is enough to generate light snow thanks to about 5 microbars of lift in the dendritic growth zone AOA 700mb. This persists for a few hours before drying out in the DGZ and leaving us with just stratus. The next clipper is rather weak Monday evening, mainly across North Dakota. Milder 850mb temperatures, between +1 and +3C in the warm sector overhead during daylight hours, however NBM sky cover is suggesting little sunshine potential for the day. Light westerly flow and the cloud cover/milder air aloft will scour out the last of the Arctic airmass at least. The clipper that follows later Tuesday is the main feature to watch this week. This is a much stronger system, down to around 985'ish mb. A tight gradient, 20mb across the state, and pressure falls of 13 to 16mb ahead, and similar pressure rises in its wake, means fairly good transport of winds aloft to the surface. Ahead of the system, strong warm advection will still temper this somewhat, with 1/2km winds of 30 to 40kts. By 00Z Wednesday, that has increased to 50 to 65kts in the cold advection regime. BUFKIT mixed tool verifies with several sites mixing into that 60kt zone. EFI/shift of tails focuses on James valley west for those higher probabilities for 60+ mph wind gusts. What impact will 60mph winds have however, after a high temperatures Monday above freezing, and Tuesday near 40 degrees with rain showers. Depends on how much wrap around snow is generated, which at this point is relegated to the far northeast of the state. As such the main impact will be winds on high profiles vehicles and powerlines, but the snow that is around should be heavily modified and unblowable. Another clipper follows for Wednesday night, following a track south of the CWA. The Arctic airmass that has followed Tuesday's clipper isn't quite as cold, but cold enough that the NBM probability p- type is predominantly snow. NBM 25-75th QPF range is only about 0.1" however deterministic GFS is coming in closer to a 0.5" swath/band, so this may be smoothed out in extended ensembles given how far out it is. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1114 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG MVFR cigs are exiting to the south this evening. Expect MVFR cigs to move in from west to east Sunday as another round of light snow moves through the region. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...20 DISCUSSION...07 AVIATION...20 ####018005522#### FXUS63 KFGF 070517 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1117 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Active pattern with several weak systems this weekend and early next week, bringing light snow chances. 50 percent chance of over an inch of snow in northwestern Minnesota Monday. - Stronger low coming in on Tuesday, with a 70 percent chance for at least minor impacts and some mixed precipitation possible in southeastern North Dakota and west central Minnesota. && .UPDATE... Issued at 951 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 Snow continues to taper in the south with clearing skies. Cold and dry air continues to filter in from the north with a majority of the area falling below zero tonight. Light winds should limit wind chills issues overnight. UPDATE Issued at 636 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 Light snow continues in the far southern reaches of our area and should begin to taper off in the next several hours. Furthern north, very cold air is filtering in from the north with a majority of the northern Red River Valley already hitting close to -10. Expect a very cold night as the surface high begins to push in from the northwest. Wind chills should remain between -20 and -25 through the overnight thanks to light winds. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 213 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 ...Synopsis... The parade of clipper shortwaves continues, with one passing by in eastern SD currently and the next one coming into eastern MT tonight. That weak MT shortwave will move into the Dakotas on Sunday, and an even stronger shortwave looks to dive down out of Manitoba into northern MN on Monday. The strongest shortwave will come in on Tuesday, with some strong cold air advection behind it on Wednesday. The active pattern does not let up, with another shortwave coming through Thursday and another reinforcing shot of cold air Friday as upper low digs into the Upper Midwest. Northwesterly flow and cold high pressure continue into Saturday. ...Active pattern weekend into Monday... More rounds of light snow and flurries are expected to continue for the rest of the weekend and beginning of the work week. Sunday's system continues to show fairly light QPF, which fits with the dry layer around 850mb on model soundings. Not saturated enough at the surface for freezing drizzle, but can't rule out a few flakes reaching the ground, ranging from a trace to a few tenths of an inch. The shortwave digging out of Canada on Monday, however, has been trending a bit more impressive, with models showing signs of mid-level frontgenesis. It will be fairly quick moving, and currently HREF has 50 percent probabilities of an inch or more of snow over northwestern MN, but much lower chances (10 to 15 percent) for over 3 inches. At this point, another sub-advisory clipper seems most likely, but will continue to monitor. ...More substantial snow Tuesday... Ensembles still are in pretty good agreement on a fairly vigorous shortwave digging into the Red River Valley on Tuesday into Wednesday. There are still some 50 to 100 mile differences in the exact track of the surface low, which will have an affect on impacts. The strongest QPF chances look to be on the leading edge of the system with warm air advection, and it is possible that portions of our southern counties could even see some rain mixing in with snow. A lot of questions for how much this will impact blowability of the snow later as cold air advection kicks in behind the system Tuesday night. Probabilistic Winter Storm Severity Index continues to have around 70 percent chance for minor/advisory level impacts. Chances for 6 inches or more of snow for warning are lower, around 15 percent. However, will have to watch with the winds picking up and blowing any new snow around. At this point the overlap between expected strongest winds and heaviest snow is not good, but could always have some problems with lingering snow showers and strong winds into Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. For now, will continue to have a general messaging strategy with what we know and what we don't know, and leave probability graphics for a bit later. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1112 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 VFR conditions and light winds will prevail through 18z of the TAF period. As the surface high moves off early tomorrow afternoon, southeasterly winds will increase at DVL/GFK/FAR. Accompanying this by late afternoon will be falling ceilings, likely to MVFR depending on the track of a system moving from northwest to southeast. Accompanying this will be a broad swath of light snowfall that will push visibilities down to 2-4SM. The bulk of guidance keeps the main portions of this system west, however a few ensemble members do push the system as far east as FAR/GFK. Should a further easterly scenario arise, expect widespread MVFR ceilings and visibility at DVL/GFK/FAR while a further west solution will allow for those TAF sites to remain VFR. Regardless, the reasonable worst case scenario for these TAF sites will be prevailing MVFR conditions with a low chance for brief IFR conditions. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...Perroux DISCUSSION...JR AVIATION...Perroux