####018004240#### FXUS64 KSHV 082027 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 327 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .UPDATE... Issued at 1041 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024 As of 10:45 AM today, temperatures are reaching the lower 80s once again under mostly cloudy skies. Later this afternoon and going through the evening, severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and/or damaging winds are likely to develop, especially along and north of the I-30 corridor. Otherwise, temperature maximums will be above average in the lower 90s. With weather and observed trends continuing as anticipated, forecast grid adjustments were not necessary at this time. /16/ && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday Night) Issued at 324 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024 Active weather will continue across the Four State Region through the rest of the week. A slow-moving frontal boundary will keep the atmosphere disturbed (and environmentally conducive) enough to instigate multiple rounds of severe weather in the next 48 hours, including tonight and tomorrow afternoon/evening. Severe thunderstorms will produce risks predominantly for large hail and damaging winds, but a few tornadoes cannot be ruled out. As of 3:15 PM, SPC has issued downstream Tornado Watches into the ArkLaTex accordingly through 10 PM. Otherwise, temperatures will remain above average with maximums in the lower 90s/lower 70s. /16/ && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Tuesday) Issued at 324 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024 Quieter weather briefly returns through the weekend before precipitation chances are reintroduced early next week. Quasi- zonal flow aloft will allow for a mid-level trough to drift eastward across the Four Corners into the Southern Plains. This trough, in combination with ridging shifting further east across the Mississippi River, will maintain enhanced southerly flow and moisture through most of early next week. Precipitation chances will remain through the same time period as a result. /16/ && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 101 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024 High based MVFR cigs are still hanging tough attm across portions of E TX/N LA/Srn AR, but additional improvement to VFR is expected through 20Z with these low VFR cigs expected to persist through the remainder of the afternoon hours. Scattered convection is expected to develop after 23Z from portions of NCntrl TX into SE OK along a weak cold front, with this convection quickly spreading into NE TX/SW AR by early to mid evening. Have maintained VCTS for all but the LFK/MLU terminals from mid-evening through shortly after 06Z, with the convection expected to weaken shortly after 06Z as its remnants progress ESE across N LA. VCTS may be needed in later TAF issuances for MLU, although its conceivable that mesoscale bndrys from this convection will move through MLU and delay the development of MVFR cigs until late. Elsewhere, low MVFR cigs are expected to develop by 05Z across Deep E TX/portions of N LA, but its expansion Nwd may be delayed by any mesoscale bndrys produced from the evening convection. IFR/LIFR cigs should develop though at LFK late tonight, with any remaining areas affected by the earlier convection expected to see low cig development after 12Z. Slow improvement should occur to cigs by mid to late morning, although VFR cigs will likely not return until the end of the 18Z TAF period or beyond. S winds 9-13kts with occasional gusts to 20kts this afternoon, will diminish to 5-10kts after 00Z. /15/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 72 90 67 83 / 40 30 50 0 MLU 71 90 65 81 / 30 20 60 0 DEQ 63 86 58 80 / 60 30 30 0 TXK 69 87 62 81 / 70 30 40 0 ELD 67 86 61 80 / 60 20 40 0 TYR 71 88 65 82 / 40 40 40 0 GGG 71 88 65 82 / 40 30 50 0 LFK 73 92 67 84 / 10 30 40 0 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...16 LONG TERM....16 AVIATION...15