####018005769#### FXUS65 KPUB 112357 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 557 PM MDT Thu Jun 11 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Critical and near critical fire weather conditions continue today through Saturday. - Slight cooling Saturday before a cold front arrive Sunday cooling temps further with increased rain chances. - Warmer and drier for the middle to end of next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 554 PM MDT Thu Jun 11 2026 Quick update to the forecast package for expiration of portions of the Red Flag this evening. Remainder of the forecast looks on track, with rest of the Red Flag for tonight ending at 8 PM. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 234 PM MDT Thu Jun 11 2026 Observational data continues to indicate very dry air and strong winds across the region, with marginal critical fire weather conditions across much of south central Colorado. Strong westerlies are forecasted to weaken through the afternoon. Further east, gusty northerly winds are weakening to 20-25mph with very dry air still in place. Despite the cooler temperatures today, around seasonal levels, dry air will keep RH values below the critical threshold with Red Flag Warnings in place. In the mountains, strong winds remain with a few clouds forming over the Sangre de Cristos and San Juans. However, the atmosphere looks too dry to form any storms today for these regions with PWAT values between 0.2-0.5" which is slightly below the average. Tonight, SSW winds form in the plains keeping the air well mixed. No hazardous weather is expected through tonight. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 234 PM MDT Thu Jun 11 2026 Friday will feature at and above seasonal temperatures once again, with increasing westerly flow ahead of more short wave energy digging across the Intermountain West and into the Northern Rockies Friday night. Dry conditions remain in place across the western half of the area, leading to more critical fire weather conditions over and near the higher terrain, where a Red Flag Warning is hoisted from late Friday morning into the evening. There remains a slow increase in available moisture across the plains as the dry line begins to enter back into the forecast area from the SE. Model Ensembles show between 500-1000j/kg of CAPE Friday afternoon, with enough potential instability for a few possible afternoon showers and storms across the southeast mtns, the southern I-25 Corridor and into the far southeast plains. CAMS (HRRR/NAMNest) also support this claim as they show storms forming between 2-3PM and lasting until 10PM for the farthest eastern locations. DCAPE values look fairly strong with 750-1250j/kg which could lead to the potential of severe winds. The hail threat will depend more directly on the strength of the updrafts. The freezing level remains relatively low around 3800m which could lead to a storm or two producing impactful hail if the certain conditions line up just well enough. Latest model data is trending slightly cooler for Saturday with temps in the mid 80s to low 90s for the plains. A front arriving Sunday will dramatically decrease daytime highs and lead to a day without critical fire weather. Forecast confidence on wetting rains (>0.10") for the area are around 50-70% for the mountains and between 30-40% for the eastern plains. Models show upper level ridging builds across the Rockies, bringing warm and drier weather back to region for the middle to end of next week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 522 PM MDT Thu Jun 11 2026 VFR conditions anticipated across the forecast area over the next 24 hours, including the three main TAF sites of KCOS, KPUB and KALS. KCOS - E-SE surface winds through the evening, lessening by 03z. S to SW wind flow redeveloping tomorrow afternoon. KPUB - E surface flow through the evening, becoming southerly tomorrow afternoon. KALS - E surface winds expected to push in around 02z this evening, then become light overnight. SW winds redeveloping by tomorrow afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 234 PM MDT Thu Jun 11 2026 A cold front passed over the area last night ushering in gusty, dry winds to the area. Northerlies and easterlies continue to dominate with gusts of 25-35mph bring recorded this afternoon with RHs remaining critical. Red Flag Warnings remain in effect through the evening for eastern CO and the I-25 & US-50 corridor. A Fire Weather Watch for Friday has been upgraded for many zones to a Red Flag Warning due to continued high winds and low daytime RH values. Fire Weather Zones 230/229 were downgraded due to high forecast confidence on slightly higher RH values. A Fire Weather Watch has been issued for zones 220/222/228. Forecast confidence has increased to moderate in regards to terrain enhanced winds. The watch remains due to slight forecast uncertainty on coverage of ambient atmospheric moisture. A dryline is forecasted to form over the eastern plains and could ebb its way toward zones 222/228 which would increase RH values out of the critical threshold. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM MDT Friday for COZ220- 222>224. Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday evening for COZ220-222-228. Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ222- 228>230. && $$ UPDATE...MOORE SHORT TERM...DS LONG TERM...DS AVIATION...MOORE FIRE WEATHER...DS ####018005863#### FXUS64 KOHX 112357 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 657 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026 ...New UPDATE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 643 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026 - Hot and humid conditions this evening with very warm overnight lows. - High chance (<80%) for showers and storms Friday along a cold front. Some storms could be strong to severe during the afternoon mainly posing a threat for damaging wind gusts. - Medium to high chances for showers and storms Sunday, lower chances for early next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 657 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026 An upper level ridge is in place over Middle TN and that will keep quiet conditions in place for the evening. It will remain warm and humid and overnight lows will remain very warm tonight only falling into the 70s. We are forecasting a low of 77 tonight in Nashville, that is one degree cooler than the daily record warm low for June 12 set in 2013. As we head towards daybreak we will be watching an approaching cold front associated with a surface low and trough over the Great Lakes. There is quite a bit of uncertainty on how widespread this activity will be by the time it reaches our northwest counties after 3 AM. Scattered thunderstorms look likely for our northwest counties between 4 and 8 AM. The front and scattered activity will continue to push south and east during the morning but activity will become less numerous and is expected to mainly be scattered showers by the time is reaches the Nashville area between 7 and 10 AM. We will see re-develop along this boundary in the afternoon for areas mainly south and east of Nashville. There is a very low chance for gusty winds with any thunderstorms during the morning but better chances for gusty winds will come in the afternoon for the Plateau. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Friday) Issued at 1145 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026 Ridging remains in place across the region today with a humid southwesterly breeze across Middle Tennessee. Heat and humidity will combine for heat indices in the 90s east of I-65 and the low 100s closer to the Tennessee River this afternoon. Meanwhile a storm system is impacting the Upper Midwest. The disturbance aloft responsible for this remain across the Plains, but will continue eastward toward the Great Lakes region tonight into tomorrow morning. An associated cold front will gradually approach Middle Tennessee tomorrow morning as a result, and this should contain a band of weakening convection. The front is projected to continue toward the I-40 corridor by early afternoon. With diurnal heating and abundant pre-front moisture, numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop. Forecast soundings depict SBCAPE of 2,500-3,500 J/kg thanks to rich boundary layer moisture with DCAPE in the 700-1,000 J/kg range. These profiles will support transient strong to severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts and small to possibly 1" hail. Severe weather shouldn't be too long-lived since eff. bulk shear is <15 kts (best flow aloft remains well to our north). Locally heavy rainfall is also possible. && .LONG TERM... (Friday Night through next Thursday) Issued at 1145 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026 Friday night into Saturday morning will bring more stable post- frontal conditions to the area with a transition to zonal flow aloft. Best moisture will be displaced to our south. However, a shortwave disturbance is forecast to dive southeast from the Northern Plains toward the Ohio Valley on Sunday. This should act to pull moisture/instability back to the north which would foster medium-high chances for rain and storms given favorable forcing for ascent entering from the northwest. There's no current concerns for severe weather or flooding, but we'll keep an eye on it. The main forecast change from this time yesterday is a decrease in rain chances early-mid next week. Guidance has trended drier for our region thanks to the upper-level trough dipping closer to the Southeast behind the system on Sunday. Nonetheless, PoPs are generally <35% through mid next week and the pattern looks somewhat active for mid June and therefore less predictable for mid next week at this current forecast range. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 630 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026 VFR conditions through at least 09z. A line of showers and thunderstorms will approach the northwest part of the area after 10z and will spread south and east through the morning. This activity is expected to weaken as it pushes south and east but there is uncertainty on how much it will weaken, it'll at least give the Nashville area scattered showers between 12 and 17z. Lower vis and cigs can be expected with any showers and thunderstorms. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to re-develop along the boundary south and east of Nashville after 20z. Southerly winds up to 6 knots overnight shifting northerly up to 8 knots by 17z. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 77 89 67 91 / 10 40 10 20 Clarksville 75 85 63 89 / 50 50 0 30 Crossville 70 85 64 85 / 0 80 30 20 Columbia 74 90 68 90 / 10 70 10 40 Cookeville 72 86 65 86 / 0 70 20 20 Jamestown 71 86 62 86 / 0 80 20 10 Lawrenceburg 73 88 68 88 / 0 80 20 40 Murfreesboro 74 91 67 91 / 0 80 10 20 Waverly 74 86 65 89 / 30 50 0 40 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE.......Mueller SHORT TERM...Sizemore LONG TERM....Sizemore AVIATION.....Mueller ####018006901#### FXUS64 KEPZ 112357 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 557 PM MDT Thu Jun 11 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 544 PM MDT Thu Jun 11 2026 - Triple digit lowland heat again today. Heat Advisory in effect for most of El Paso County and the lower Rio Grande Valley until 9 PM MDT tonight. - Isolated showers and thunderstorms possible tomorrow and through the weekend, with better chances east of the Rio Grande and in the Sacramento Mountains. - Moisture will give the area some relief from the heat this weekend. Trending dry and hot again for the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 945 AM MDT Thu Jun 11 2026 The Heat Advisory is still in effect for the eastern lowlands along the Rio Grande Valley until 9 PM MDT tonight. Dry, northwesterly winds and triple digit temperatures remain across the lowlands today as a high pressure system aloft continues to meander overhead, with relative humidities reaching the single digits across southern New Mexico this afternoon. The eastern Rio Grande Valley will get a chance of relief tomorrow afternoon as moisture attempts to seep into our area. The upper-level ridge will weaken slightly, but it will still be strong enough to influence our weather for tomorrow, so PoPs will be mentionable at best for the El Paso metropolitan area. Hudspeth and Otero Counties will have the best chance for a thunderstorm tomorrow. Outflow winds and a marginal risk of heavy rain are possible with these storms. High temperatures for the weekend will finally fall to at or just under the triple digit mark as the upper-level ridge moves southwest of us. PoPs for Saturday will be lower than Friday's due to moisture not being sufficient enough for continuous shower and thunderstorm development in the lowlands. Sunday night and into Monday morning look to have a better chance of PoPs for the area, but uncertainty into how heavy the rain will be and where it will fall persists. GFS leans slightly heavier east of the Franklins, while the ECMWF leans lighter on rain and has it falling more west into New Mexico. Nonetheless, both extended models agree that warmer temperatures will return starting Tuesday as an upper-level ridge builds back over New Mexico, and with it are drier conditions and more triple digit temperatures for the lowlands. Maybe a Heat Advisory is possible for next week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 544 PM MDT Thu Jun 11 2026 While most of the area will stay dry, we could see some gusty outflow winds across the area this evening. Storms to our northeast, east and way to our south could give us a few extra hours of gusty winds later tonight. I will update tafs as needed. Otherwise, we will have light winds tonight and through the morning on Friday. For Friday afternoon we will see the return of moisture to the region. The best chances for thunderstorms tomorrow will be east of the Rio Grande. A few storms could be strong to severe with large hail and gusty outflow winds. Our ceilings tonight will become unlimited but with the moisture we will see the return of at least some high and mid ceilings by late tomorrow afternoon. Storm motion on Friday afternoon will be to the east at 10 to 20 mph. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 945 AM MDT Thu Jun 11 2026 Elevated fire weather conditions today as Min RHs across southern New Mexico will range between 5-10%, especially up in Gila National Forest. Winds will blow from the west-northwest at 5-10 mph. Ventilation rates will range from Good to Excellent. Deep mixing expected today. Min RHs will trend up to 20-35% through Monday. Moisture will return to our area tomorrow, bringing relief to the very low RHs across the area, as well as a chance for isolated rain showers and storms. Thunderstorms tomorrow and Saturday will mainly be east of the Rio Grande and the best chance of rain will be in Hudspeth and Otero Counties, especially in Lincoln National Forest, then they will spread to southwest New Mexico for Sunday and Monday. Lightning and outflow winds are possible with these storms. Forecast trends dry and hot again midweek. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 77 102 75 102 / 0 20 10 0 Sierra Blanca 69 95 65 95 / 0 40 30 10 Las Cruces 68 99 68 99 / 0 10 10 0 Alamogordo 71 99 69 98 / 0 30 10 0 Cloudcroft 54 76 52 77 / 0 60 20 30 Truth or Consequences 70 98 70 98 / 0 0 0 10 Silver City 62 93 63 92 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 69 102 68 103 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 67 97 68 97 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 74 100 73 100 / 0 20 10 0 Dell City 69 97 65 99 / 0 30 20 10 Fort Hancock 74 102 71 102 / 0 30 10 10 Loma Linda 69 93 66 93 / 0 30 10 0 Fabens 72 102 70 103 / 0 20 10 0 Santa Teresa 70 99 69 99 / 0 10 10 0 White Sands HQ 77 99 75 99 / 0 20 10 10 Jornada Range 68 99 68 99 / 0 10 10 0 Hatch 68 102 69 102 / 0 10 10 10 Columbus 75 101 73 102 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 68 97 66 97 / 0 20 20 0 Mayhill 59 84 57 88 / 0 60 30 60 Mescalero 57 87 56 87 / 0 50 10 20 Timberon 56 82 53 84 / 0 40 30 20 Winston 60 90 61 89 / 0 0 0 20 Hillsboro 68 96 68 95 / 0 10 0 20 Spaceport 64 98 65 98 / 0 10 10 10 Lake Roberts 58 94 59 93 / 0 0 0 10 Hurley 64 95 64 95 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 61 98 64 98 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 60 94 62 94 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 65 95 65 95 / 0 0 0 10 Animas 67 97 67 97 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 67 97 67 98 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 68 96 67 97 / 0 0 10 10 Cloverdale 64 91 64 92 / 0 0 10 10 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for Eastern/Central El Paso County-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern Hudspeth County. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...15-Brice ####018006843#### FXUS61 KALY 112358 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 758 PM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for Greene and Ulster counties through midnight as a line of thunderstorms are moving westward into eastern New York this evening. The heat advisory for today has ended. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Hot and humid conditions through the end of the week will lead to an increased risk in heat related illnesses, especially for valley areas. 2) The potential for a few severe thunderstorms continues through this afternoon as well as on Friday which could bring damaging winds and heavy downpours. 3) Additional showers and thunderstorms are possible on Sunday associated with another cold front. Some storms could be strong to severe, especially south and west of Albany. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Hot and humid conditions will remain in place through the end of the week. Partial sunshine through Friday along with 850 hPa temperatures between +17 and +20C will allow for high temperatures to reach the mid-80s to mid-90s. Dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s will result in heat index values (feels- like temperatures to reach the mid-90s to lower 100s, for most valley areas. Heat advisories remain in effect through the end of the week for an increased risk for heat related illnesses. The experimental NWS HeatRisk is in the moderate to locally major categories through Friday. A passing cold front later Friday will bring less humid conditions for the weekend and feels-like temperatures below heat advisory criteria. KEY MESSAGE 2... The hot and humid conditions will allow for some thunderstorm development through the end of the week. One shortwave near Lake Erie will slowly track eastward into the evening hours. This shortwave is generating numerous thunderstorms which will propagate eastward through this afternoon. Timing of these showers and storms to reach western areas is likely not until 7-8pm or even slightly later, so this convection will likely begin to weaken as it nears our area, but still bring some rain showers and a possible rumble of thunder to areas especially along and south of I-90, through the evening hours. Prior to that, while there is some instability present, weak shear (about 20 kt or less) and lack of forcing may result in rather isolated coverage showers and thunderstorms for the afternoon with the latest CAMs favoring areas along and east of the Hudson Valley. Whether or not these storms can reach severe limits is uncertain, but a marginal to slight risk for severe thunderstorms remains in place through this evening. Any storm that can become severe will be capable of producing locally damaging winds and a brief downpour. After a break in convective activity late tonight into Friday morning, another round of showers and thunderstorms are expected for Friday afternoon and evening ahead of an approaching cold front. MLCAPE values between 1000-1500 J/kg and 0-6km shear values around 25-30 kt could be enough to produce a few severe thunderstorms. Storm coverage still looks uncertain but likely greater than today. Damaging winds look to be the primary threat with some of the taller storms capable of producing some hail. Some heavy downpours will be possible as well. We remain outlooked in a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for severe thunderstorms on Friday from the Storm Prediction Center (SPC). KEY MESSAGE 3... Following a dry day on Saturday, another cold front and short wave aloft are expected to move across the area in the Sunday afternoon to evening time frame. If the front approaches during the diurnally favored afternoon to early evening hours, there could be some strong to severe T-storms that develop. Strong zonal westerly flow aloft looks to result in deep layer wind shear of potentially 40-50+ kt. Should sufficient instability develop as the cold front approaches with temperatures expected to be well into the 80s, storm organization would occur. SPC has issued an equivalent Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for severe thunderstorms Sunday for areas south and west of Albany. Pleasant weather (cooler conditions and lower humidity) return behind the front for early next week. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Through 00z/Saturday...Current KENX radar shows a cluster of high reflectivity and thunderstorms moving into the region from the west just to the south of KGFL. These showers/thunderstorms are expected to arrive at KALB, KPOU, and KPSF around 01z this evening with the best chance for thunderstorms at KPOU and KPSF. KALB should remain VFR with lighter showers occurring however bursts of heavier showers at KPOU and KPSF could lower vsbys to MVFR until about 03z (KPOU) and 06z (KPSF). A brief break of VFR is expected before fog/mist is expected to develop at KPOU, KGFL, and KPSF in the early morning hours lowering vsbys to IFR/MVFR until about sunrise. All terminals are expected to return to VFR after 12z and remain for the rest of the TAF period. Winds from the west/southwest this evening remain breezy with speeds 5-10 kt. Winds then begin to taper off into the evening and overnight, except where any thunderstorms develop gusts can be expected 15-20 kt. Mainly calm overnight winds pick back up by morning from the northwest at KALB, KPOU, and KPSF and from the southeast at KGFL with speeds 5-10 kt into the afternoon. Outlook... Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Sunday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...TSRA. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures(Year Set): Thursday June 11: Albany: 94(1947) Glens Falls: 94(1894) Poughkeepsie: 95(1973) Friday June 12: Albany: 95(2017) Glens Falls: 92(2017) Poughkeepsie: 95(1933) && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Friday for CTZ001-013. NY...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Friday for NYZ038>041-043- 047>053-059>061-063>066-082>084. MA...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Friday for MAZ025. VT...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Friday for VTZ013-015. && $$ DISCUSSION...33/07/05 AVIATION...53 CLIMATE...07