####018005584#### FXUS63 KEAX 231040 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 540 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and thunderstorms through this morning, primarily across northeastern Kansas and northern Missouri. No severe storms are expected. - Multiple rounds of thunderstorms Thursday through Sunday. Slight risk of severe storms Friday. - Heavy rainfall and the potential for flooding with Saturday Night into Sunday System. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 228 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024 Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to move into portions of far northeastern Kansas and northwestern Missouri this morning. This modest activity remains focused along a surface boundary slowly sinking south-southeast into the region. Associated with the mid- level short wave trough pivoting across the Boundary Waters, the outstretched surface trough has been a focus for convection Monday evening, and finally beginning to move into the region this morning. Through Sunrise, expect scattered showers and storms to continue, working with sufficient mid-level moisture and some pockets of weak elevated instability. The greatest chances will remain along and north of US 36 but lingering activity will make the Ozark Plateau by midday. Rainfall amounts will be minor, a few hundredths to one or two tenths. Temperatures will remain near normal, with afternoon highs around 70 F. High pressure will settle across the area into Wednesday as shallow, but broad, ridging develops from the southwest CONUS to the Lower Mississippi Valley. Dry conditions will exist while temps remain near normal. Into Thursday, precip chances will increase through the day as broadscale ascent develops ahead of a mid-level western shortwave lifting across the Four Corners. With a surface low developing over the western High Plains of CO/KS, ample moisture return will combine with decent isentropic ascent for showers and thunderstorms through the afternoon and evening across the region. To the west, across central Kansas, a ribbon of instability will pool through the afternoon ahead of the eastward push of the dryline. With a negative tilt to the H500 trough as it pivots to the northeast out of CO into WY/NE, decent dynamics will exist for organized convection from far south central Nebraska, through central Kansas, into Oklahoma through the afternoon hours. Activity in central Kansas through the evening will likely consolidate into a line or cluster through midnight and move into the area Friday morning. Through early Friday morning, strong convection will likely be ongoing with strong large scale ascent persisting with the continued east-northeast lift of the mid-level short wave trough into central Nebraska. It's a bit early to get into the details, but with southwesterly flow, we might develop a modest EML through the midday hours, but an axis of instability will continue to develop with DESI LREF mean Surface CAPE of 1500 to 2000 J/Kg along the MO/KS border through the afternoon. Given the strong negative tilt of the upper trough, the parameters are there for severe convection across the area through the afternoon. With all that being said, the early morning/overnight convection will more than likely influence recovery and with southwest flow through the lower levels, we might have a lingering capping inversion to deal with. At this time, I've agreed with SPC highlighting a 15% (Slight) Risk over the past few days and continuing today for Friday afternoon. Any storms would pose a risk of large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. Brief negative ridging aloft will follow the exit of the Friday short wave to the north-northeast. Any reprieve will be short lived as a digging H500 trough emerges from the Four Corners on Saturday. Into the evening, increasing broadscale ascent across the central Plains will result in increasing thunderstorm chances by the afternoon within the warm sector ahead of the surface low wrapping up over southwestern Kansas. Overnight, with the aid of a strong LLJ, convection will spread across eastern Kansas into Missouri. With PWATs 1.50 to 2.00" forecast across the area, there's increasing concern for flooding and flash flooding as storms will likely train along the surface warm front across northeastern Kansas into northwestern Missouri. The good news, because we've been in a moderate drought, for most locations, we can likely manage a good bit of water, but we're going to have to keep a close watch on streams and rivers through the weekend for quick rises, especially if we get several rounds of rain over the same locations overnight into Sunday morning. Showers and storms will likely linger through Sunday night before finally clearing to the east. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 525 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024 Showers and thunderstorms expected to be in the vicinity of the TAF sites for the next few hours with storms moving out by mid day. Winds will shift back to the north as the storms come to an end and will become gusty around 25 knots. Otherwise expect decreasing winds and VFR conditions Tuesday evening. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Kurtz AVIATION...HB ####018004540#### FXUS65 KTFX 231040 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 445 AM MDT Tue Apr 23 2024 Aviation Section Updated .SYNOPSIS... Today through Thursday it will be warm and across North-central and Central Montana. In Southwestern Montana there are precipitation chances with a rumble of thunder possible on Wednesday and Thursday. Friday into Saturday the next weather system will move into the area and bring cooler temperatures and precipitation. Sunday into early next week temperatures will warm back up. && .DISCUSSION... Tuesday through Thursday... Today an upper-level ridge will move over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. This will allow temperatures to warm up slightly with dry weather and clear skies across the area on Tuesday. On Wednesday the upper-level ridge remains in place over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. Embedded in the ridge there is a shortwave. This shortwave will bring rain and potentially a few rumbles of thunder and lightning to Southwestern Montana Wednesday afternoon and evening. These thunderstorms will not be severe. Total rain accumulations will be less than a tenth of inch with higher amounts possible in locations that have a thunderstorm. On Wednesday temperatures will be the warmest of the week. On Wednesday most of the lower- elevations of North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana have a 70 - 100% chance for temperatures 70 degrees or greater. On Thursday the upper-level ridge begins to move eastward out of the area above North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. On Thursday along and south of the Montana Highway 200 Corridor and west of US Highway 287 south of Three Forks there is a 10 - 20% chance for a 0.10 of an inch of rain or greater. For the lower- elevations from Three Forks to the Bozeman area south to the Idaho border there is a 15 - 40% chance of 0.25 of an inch of rain or greater on Thursday. The rain in Southwestern Montana on Thursday could come in the form of a thunderstorm. For the Gallatin and Madison ranges there is a 20 - 40% for a tenth of an inch of snow or greater on Thursday. Friday through next Tuesday... On Friday an upper-level trough will begin to over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. This will bring cooler temperatures and precipitation to the area. This upper-level trough will remain in place over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana on Saturday. At this time precipitation type/amount and how much cooler the area will get with this system is uncertain. Additionally, currently it is likely that locations along and south of the Montana Highway 200 Corridor will receive the highest total precipitation amounts. The mountains of Southwestern Montana will most likely receive snow. This will need to continue to be monitored for updates. On Sunday clusters indicate that an upper-level ridge will most likely move over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. On Monday that upper-level ridge will most likely stay over the area. This will bring a slight warm-up to North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana on Sunday and Monday. On Tuesday three of the clusters (76% of ensemble members) indicate that there will be an upper-level trough that begins to move toward Montana. This would indicate a new weather system moving toward Montana. The other cluster (24% of ensemble members) has zonal flow over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana which would keep status quo weather for the area. -IG && .AVIATION... 445 AM MDT Tue Apr 23 2024 (23/12Z TAF Period) VFR conditions will prevail over the region through the period. Do expect increasing high clouds over the CWA this afternoon and evening. Brusda Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation weather and hazard information. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 63 37 74 45 / 0 0 0 10 CTB 62 31 67 38 / 0 0 0 0 HLN 66 37 75 44 / 0 0 0 10 BZN 62 32 71 40 / 0 0 0 20 WYS 56 25 63 33 / 0 0 10 30 DLN 61 33 70 39 / 0 0 10 10 HVR 65 36 73 43 / 0 0 0 0 LWT 59 35 70 42 / 0 0 0 20 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls ####018005725#### FXUS61 KGYX 231040 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 640 AM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure slides south of the area today for warmer and dry conditions. Low pressure approaches the region Wednesday bringing the next chance for rain. High pressure then builds in towards the end of the week. A warming trend can be expected over the weekend with chance of showers. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 640 AM Update...Minor update to T/Tds to reflect observational trends. Previously... High pressure aligned along the East Coast this morning will shift out into the Atlantic today while providing fair weather. As the high shifts offshore southerly winds will increase through the day with gusts topping out around 25 mph inland and closer to 30 mph along the coast. These onshore winds will keep highs in the 50s across much of Maine while portions of interior NH climb into the mid 60s. There will be some increase in moisture across the area while overall the airmass will remain dry leading to elevated fire weather conditions as min RH drops to around 30 percent across Maine and 25 percent across NH. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... An upper trough will swing across the Great Lakes region tonight generating an area of low pressure that will approach the region Wednesday morning. This system will bring increasing clouds with increasing chances for rain across northern and western zones. Lows tonight will range from mid 30s across much of Maine to around 40 degrees across southern and western NH. The 00Z model suite generally tracks the surface low west to east across the area Wednesday bringing periods of rain to the area with a cold front sweeping across the area Wednesday afternoon. This will bring colder air into NW zones allowing for rain to change to snow in the mountains and then to valley floors before precipitation ends Wednesday evening. Overall, QPF will be light on the order of 0.25 inches with higher amounts in the mountains. Areas south of the mountains may only see a few hours of rain Wednesday morning into early afternoon with drying mid to late afternoon. The highest summits could see an inch or two of snowfall with northern valleys seeing a coating of snow. Highs will range from the 40s north to 50s south with these high temperatures being realized around mid day with temperatures falling during the afternoon. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Strong cold air advection Wednesday evening will allow for any precipitation to end as a few scattered snow showers across the region. Drier air on downslope northwesterly winds will lead to clear skies outside the mountains during the overnight hours as high pressure from Canada begins to nose into the region. Temperatures will drop into the 20s in all areas by morning on brisk winds. The gradient will diminish considerably on Thursday as high pressure continues to build over the region. However, significant mixing will allow for a west to northwesterly flow to continue and preventing the formation of a sea breeze in most areas. After an afternoon reaching the 50s on Thursday, Friday will be a few degrees warmer away from the coast with readings reaching near 60 degrees over southern interior locations. This warming trend will continue into the weekend as a southwesterly flow develops around the periphery of high pressure located off the east coast. Widespread lower to mid 60s can be expected with the exception of cooler temperatures along the coastline due to a late morning and afternoon sea breeze. The warmth culminates on Sunday and into early next week with 70s across southern interior locations. It will continue to be cooler along the coastline due to a sea breeze with the Midcoast region particularly chilly. There will also be considerable cloudiness during this period with scattered showers across the region, mainly during the afternoon hours as models suggest a nearly stationary front will remain over the region. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Short Term...VFR will prevail today with south winds gusting to around 20 kts by late morning. VFR likely continues through the first part of tonight followed by lowering cigs from NW to SE into Wednesday morning. Low cigs and -RA will likely bring MVFR conditions for much of Wednesday. Long Term...Mainly VFR conditions through the end of the week. Scattered showers will lead to MVFR conditions at times Sunday and through the beginning portions of next week. This will mainly be during the afternoon hours. && .MARINE... Short Term...High pressure shifts east of the waters with increasing southerly flow. This south flow will bring a period of SCA conditions from Port Clyde southward. There will be a resurgence of south to southwest winds Wednesday ahead of a cold front with gusts approaching 25 kts and seas building 5-6 feet by Wednesday afternoon. Long Term...Winds will gust into SCA thresholds Wednesday night with cold air advection on an increased northwesterly flow. Winds and seas subside thereafter and become locally onshore during the afternoon hours. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ152-154. && $$ NEAR TERM...Schroeter SHORT TERM...Schroeter LONG TERM...Cannon ####018010676#### FXUS61 KPHI 231042 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 642 AM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024 .SYNOPSIS... The center of high pressure generally builds to our south today, then a cold front will cross our region during mostly Wednesday morning. High pressure then arrives from the Great Lakes Thursday before shifting to our northeast and east during Friday. A warm front should lift north of our area late Saturday, then a cold front gradually approaches later Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Latest analysis depicts an elongated ridge of surface high pressure extending from the Southeast northeastward into Atlantic Canada. Dry air, mostly clear skies and light winds have promoted strong radiational cooling and we should have fairly widespread frost early this morning, with frost and freeze headlines remaining in effect until 9 AM. Otherwise, the day should dawn sunny and calm. Incoming system still over the central Plains and upper Midwest will begin to spread some high clouds overhead today, but otherwise, should be fairly sunny. With warm advection developing ahead of the system on strengthening southerly flow, expect highs to rise 5-10 degrees above yesterday's readings, which will feel quite nice after the chilly morning. Winds will be a little gusty, perhaps up to 20 mph, but not much different from yesterday. The approaching system will further increase clouds with a steady southerly flow tonight. This will help keep temps much milder, with lows likely 10-15 degrees higher than this morning, mostly 40s and low 50s. As the system gets closer late at night, a few showers may move into the region, but overall not expecting much, so kept overnight POPs in the slight chance to low-end chance range. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... An upper-level trough is forecast to swing across our region during the day Wednesday. This will drive a cold front across our area during mostly Wednesday morning. This system looks to have limited moisture with it, without a tap to Gulf of Mexico moisture, and therefore rainfall amounts are forecast to be very light. While the main cold front shifts offshore by early afternoon, a secondary cold front or trough (dew point front) may arrive by late afternoon. Since the cold front continues to look faster, more drying is forecast to be working into the area through the afternoon. This would tend to decrease the instability, however the model forecast soundings show some weak instability present in the afternoon. The overall forcing though may be on the weaker side, however the model forecast soundings also show lowering freezing levels and steepening low level lapse rates. If a heavy shower or thunderstorm were able to develop in the afternoon, then locally gusty winds and small hail will be possible. Overall though with the extent of the drying forecast from about late morning through the afternoon, the thunder potential looks to be on the low side. Mild temperatures Wednesday for most of the area, however a strengthening/gusty west to northwest wind will be in place in the afternoon and evening. The sky will clear especially later in the day as high pressure quickly builds southeastward from the Great Lakes Wednesday night, across the Northeast and Mid- Atlantic Thursday morning. If the lower levels can decouple and winds become calm, a frosty early Thursday morning would be quite possible especially the more favorable locations like interior New Jersey and eastern Pennsylvania north and west of the Fall Line. A notable colder and dry air mass will be in place Thursday despite a mainly sunny sky with high temperatures mostly in the 50s. An onshore wind will also keep it even cooler along the coastal areas. Thursday night may feature more areas of frost with temperatures dropping into the 30s for much of the area. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Summary...Cool to start then a significant warm-up probable over the weekend and early next week. Some shower chances later in the weekend and/or early next week. Synoptic Overview...As an upper-level trough shifts to our east to start Friday, a building ridge arrives from the west as an upper- level trough lifts across the Plains and into the Midwest through Sunday. As the influence of the upper-level trough gets closer Sunday night and Monday, the ridge shifts to our east. The timing of this however is less certain as the upper-level trough in the Plains may become a closed low which tend to be slower moving (may be two separate systems). This will also have an impact on our precipitation chances Sunday and Monday. The overall pattern though suggests that a much warmer air mass will overspread our region mostly during the second half of the weekend and early next week. For Friday and Saturday...Surface high pressure is currently forecast to be centered across coastal New England to start Friday, then it shifts eastward as a building ridge starts to arrive from the west. This will initially keep a cool air mass across our region, however better warm air advection kicks in Saturday as more of a southerly return flow starts to set up. In addition, a warm front should lift to our north later Saturday. While a few showers cannot be ruled out with this warm front, the probability looks to be on the low side at this point. After a mainly sunny Friday, clouds should be on the increase some during Saturday within the increasing warm air advection regime plus ahead of and with the warm front. The timing of this warm front looks to be driven by a lead upper-level trough or closed low that lifts across the Midwest which also has a surface low with it. For Sunday and Monday...As an upper-level trough continues to lift up across the Plains and Midwest, the downstream ridge axis slides across our region. The influence of the trough however may start to weaken the ridge or shift it to our east into Monday. Surface low pressure tracks across the Great Lakes Monday, and its associated cold front may not approach our area until Monday night. The details however will depend on the timing and amplification of the trough. In addition, high pressure sliding east of Hudson Bay Canada later Sunday into Monday may send a cold front down across New England and closer to our area. As of now, that front should remain north of our area given continued southerly flow ahead of the aforementioned trough from the west. Plenty of warm air is therefore currently forecast across the area, with high temperature for much of the area in the 70s to even locally some low 80 degrees. There is some chance for some showers and thunderstorms, especially Monday however the probabilities look to be on the lower side as of now. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Through today...VFR. Light and variable winds early become southerly 5-10 kts after daybreak. Gusts of 15-20 kts possible later in the morning into the afternoon. High confidence. Tonight...VFR. A few showers are possible late, but no reductions in cigs or vsby expected before dawn Wednesday. Winds southerly 5-10 kts. High confidence. Outlook... Wednesday...Mainly brief period of MVFR conditions possible with also some showers. Thursday and Friday...VFR. Saturday...VFR overall. && .MARINE... Today, winds start below advisory levels, but will increase through the day and likely reach Small Craft Advisory levels on the northern half of the New Jersey coastal waters, as well as Delaware Bay. Therefore we have issued a Small Craft Advisory for these areas. Tonight, the gusts on the bay diminish, but on the oceans they should increase, so SCA's expand to all ocean zones after midnight. Seas will also build, reaching low-end criteria by early Wednesday morning. Outlook... Wednesday...Small Craft Advisory conditions. Thursday...Small Craft Advisory conditions possible mainly in the morning. Friday and Saturday...The conditions are anticipated to be below Small Craft Advisory criteria. && .FIRE WEATHER... Though there will be some moisture advection with an approaching system, the region will remain fairly dry today. Min RH values across the region will be in the 25-35% range, with southerly wind gusts in 15-25 mph range. As was done for Monday, a Special Weather Statement for increased fire danger has been issued for today. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... A period of southerly flow will occur into Wednesday morning ahead of a cold front. This is forecast to result in surge values rising to 1-2 feet above normal along Delaware Bay, the tidal Delaware River, and Chesapeake Bay. With the full moon occurring today, astronomical tides will be maximized around this time as well. This should result in some areas of minor coastal flooding with the Wednesday night high tide, although the extent and exact areas that may experience the most impact remains unclear at this time. Coastal flooding is not currently anticipated along the Atlantic coast, except for potentially Barnegat Bay. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for PAZ070-071-104- 106. Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for PAZ060>062- 101>103-105. NJ...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for NJZ016>019-023. Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for NJZ001-007>010- 012-013-015-020>022-027. DE...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for DEZ001>003. MD...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for MDZ012-015-019- 020. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ430-431. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 6 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ450-451. Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ452>455. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Gorse NEAR TERM...RCM SHORT TERM...Fitzsimmons/Gorse LONG TERM...Gorse AVIATION...Gorse/RCM MARINE...Gorse/RCM FIRE WEATHER...PHI TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...PHI ####018006233#### FXUS61 KBGM 231045 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 645 AM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Dry again today with clouds moving in through the afternoon. Rain showers move in tonight ahead of a cold front coming through Wednesday morning. Seasonably cold weather expected Wednesday afternoon and overnight before warmer and drier weather returns for the end of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 635 AM Update... Updated temperatures a bit but otherwise no changes made. 310 AM Update... With only a few high clouds moving through early this morning it is another cold night with good radiational cooling. valleys have cooled faster than the ridges so used our fog tool to lower temperatures in the valleys. Upper level ridging is building in as well with southerly flow developing in the lower levels so despite some more filtered sun today, temperatures will warm to 5 to 10 degrees warmer than yesterday. Forecast soundings show dry air still in place above the mixing layer so odds are dew points will fall below model guidance so used the canadian reg as well as NBM 10th to get dew points lower for late morning through early afternoon. Boundary layer moisture does begin to advect in late this afternoon as an area of low pressure moves into the Great Lakes region. Tonight, rain showers move in from west to east. Chances of precipitation were delayed until after 7 pm this evening as dry air in place will take some time to saturate. Looking at RH levels through the atmosphere, there does look to be a dry slot trying to nudge into NEPA and the Southern Tier as the precipitation begins so QPF amounts were lowered. Across the NY thruway, steadier precipitation is possible as the low traverses from west to east through northern NY. Headed into Wednesday, a strong cold front moves through so day time highs will likely occur before noon with falling temperatures through the day. Really cut back on chances of precipitation especially behind the cold front as the 500 mb shortwave axis moves east of us as well as strong cold air advection. Some models still show post frontal precipitation but with the strength of the negative vorticity advection in the mid and upper levels sinking air will make it tough to get much beyond some isolated drizzle. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... 330 AM update... A quiet period is in store as the upper level trough slowly begins to lift out of our region Wednesday night with high pressure building in at the surface. As a result clear skies and light winds will embrace the region Wednesday night. Cooler air mass remains in place with lows falling into the mid 20s to low 30s with the help of radiational cooling. Similar pattern continues into Thursday with quiet and cool conditions expected under northerly flow. Highs are expected to climb into the 50s Thursday afternoon with plenty of sunshine. Another cool and clear night is expected Thursday with lows ranging in the low to mid 30s across the region. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... 330 AM update... Large scale upper level ridging moves in on Friday with quiet and dry conditions expected to continue. Southerly flow returns with temperatures beginning to climb back into the 60s once again. Meanwhile a deep low pressure system moves into the upper midwest Friday night into Saturday morning with a warm front expanding from the Great Lakes through the Carolinas. We begin to see the impacts of this system early Saturday morning with the increasing chance of rain showers over our region. Behind this front a warming trend establishes especially on Sunday with temperatures expected to soar into the low to mid 70s. This warm and unstable air mass may kick off some scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Overall the upper level ridge continues to reign during this period with a few disturbances moving through from Sunday into Monday. Pattern begins to break sometime Tuesday with an upper trough pushes back in. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR conditions expected at all terminals through at least 0Z this evening. Rain moves in from west to east with SYR and RME having the best chance at seeing rain reach the ground prior to 6Z but restrictions not expected untill after 6Z. Rain showers will be numerous but with lower intensity so vis restrictions are uncertain but as more moisture moves in, cigs will drop to MVFR at most terminals. AVP will hold on to some dry air so there is lower chances of seeing MVFR prior to 12Z. Outlook... Wednesday thru Wednesday night...Occasional restrictions possible in rain showers. Thursday through Friday...Mainly VFR. Saturday...Restrictions possible in rain showers, especially in the afternoon and evening. && .FIRE WEATHER... Dry conditions with gusty winds are expected again today. Min RHs will fall below 30% for much of the region with a few locations falling below 20%, mainly in warmer valley locations. Wind gusts this afternoon will get up to near 25 mph for higher elevations and 15 to 20 mph for valley locations. With fine fuels drying out yesterday and continued drying late this morning into the afternoon, a SPS has been issued for NY counties. After coordination with NYSDEC, the decision was made to issue a special weather statement for New York, however at this time, an SPS for northeast PA will not be issued based on coordination with PA DCNR. RH does look to recover late this afternoon into the early evening as dew points begin to rise as moisture begins to move in from the SW ahead of a cold front. Models tend to bring moisture in too quickly so RHs were kept lower until after sunset. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AJG NEAR TERM...AJG SHORT TERM...ES LONG TERM...ES AVIATION...AJG FIRE WEATHER...