####018007980#### FXUS61 KGYX 142350 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 750 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024 .SYNOPSIS... After a warm day today, a cold front drops south through the region bringing the chance for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. A stalled frontal boundary will result in unsettled, showery weather for the remainder of the week and through the weekend with temperatures remaining seasonable for mid May. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... 745 PM Update...Showers continue to wane across the region with the loss of daytime heading a stray shower or thunderstorm cannot be ruled out in the western and northern zones this evening but otherwise it will remain dry with fog development late. Previously... A cold front continues to sag southward into northern areas late today and tonight, as warm air continues to spread into southern areas. Some strong gusty thunderstorms and small hail remain possible across northwestern areas into this evening, with some convection starting to show up across northern New York and Vermont. The front makes slow southward progress into northern area tonight and then stalls by morning. This serves to keep most of the scattered shower activity across northern areas overnight, while a few isolated showers make it downwind of the mountains this evening. Most of the coast and southern areas remain dry, but an area of marine fog looks poised to move onshore through the MidCoast after midnight tonight. Additionally, some valley fog is likely across northern areas that see any showers or storms this afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Tomorrow's forecast is looking drier and warmer overall across interior locations outside of the mountains and western New Hampshire. The front looks to remain stalled and gradually wash out across northern areas tomorrow. At the same, a slow moving low pressure system tracks south of New England, spreading moisture northward to where there remains weak forcing along the front. This keeps at least scattered shower activity and clouds ongoing. Meanwhile, across the coastal plain and just back from the shoreline, enough sunshine looks to make it through to allow temps to warm into the 70s. A band of showers associated with the low pressure center may push into southern New Hampshire by late in the afternoon, but most of the rain associated with this system holds off until after dark. Showers and some scattered thunderstorms continue across northern locations through the evening, before waning through the overnight hours. Elsewhere, most of the night looks dry until closer to daybreak on Thursday, at which time more moisture from the low begins to push into southern New Hampshire. Guidance on this feature continues to wobble back and forth, but by late tomorrow night chances for rain increase across southern areas as the low moves closer. Most of Maine and central NH likely stay dry through sunrise on Thursday. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A largely unsettled pattern persists over the area with fuzzy day-to- day details, but a straight-forward broad picture featuring daily chances for mainly-diurnal showers and predominantly mild conditions. From a synoptic standpoint, this is due to predominantly zonal flow over the NOAM mid-latitudes featuring a conga line of northern and southern stream disturbances embedded within the westerlies. At the surface, there is good model agreement keeping high pressure centered over Maritime Canada... and extending south along the New England Coast. The combination of the two gives neither a total- washout of an extended forecast, nor a dry stretch of weather... but somewhere in between. From a hazard perspective, slow-moving/stalled fronts with disturbances running along them will promote potential for back- building and/or training showers and some thunderstorms. Looking through ensemble analysis, it appears as if deeper moisture is shunted south on Thursday with an Atlantic low east of Carolina ingesting much of it... which limits the hydrological threat to some extent. However it cannot be ruled out entirely given the uncertain specifics of the pattern, especially if certain locales near these fronts (such as across the mountains) see repeated rounds of rainfall. This flow regime also promotes periods of onshore flow. Much like the last several days however a source region from the Maritime Canada high may not be humid enough to produce classic "socked in" conditions along the coastal plain. Early looks at boundary layer lapse rates suggests as much. So ultimately it looks like we'll enjoy nicer weather than surface wind direction may otherwise imply with temperatures generally warming into the 60s and 70s... modified by afternoon showers and storms, and by the sea breeze. Ensemble solutions suggest the greatest inroads for the marine layer comes this weekend, with the aforementioned southern stream Atlantic low potentially drifting north and bringing some of its moisture into the easterly flow across the Gulf of Maine. Although humid, PoP has actually trended down around that time given a lack of adequate phasing and forcing. On a personal note, this is my final forecast for the WFO Gray office before shipping off to my next adventure. I've greatly enjoyed my last 5 years in Maine, especially the skiing and living in one of the greatest foodie cities in America. Many thanks to those I've had the privilege to call friends and/or colleagues, you've made this Michigander feel at home from day one. I'll miss the Nor'easters, but maybe not so much the marine layer! You all are in great hands with this group of dedicated meteorologists (and hydrologists, and electronics technicians, and every other cog in the NWS wheel). && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Short Term...VFR continues into the evening, and through most of tomorrow at most terminals. The exceptions will be RKD and AUG, where a period of marine fog likely brings IFR conditions after midnight tonight through tomorrow morning, before gradually improving tomorrow morning. Showers and an isolated thunderstorm are likely at HIE and LEB this evening, bringing brief restrictions. VFR prevails most of the day tomorrow, except at HIE where MVFR may linger most of the day. Ceilings gradually lower again tomorrow night, with marine fog possible at RKD and AUG again Long Term...Low confidence in the day to day details of the forecast exists, especially along the coast. However the pattern suggests prevailing VFR with potential for periodic restrictions in overnight FG or afternoon/evening SHRA. && .MARINE... Short Term...Some brief gusts to near 25kt are likely across the southern waters into this evening, but otherwise conditions are expected to remain below SCA levels through at least tomorrow night. A cold front stalls north of the waters tonight, with low pressure slowly tracking south of the waters through tomorrow night. Areas of dense fog are likely after midnight tonight across the eastern waters. Long Term...Weak pressure gradient force keeps winds and seas below SCA thresholds through the long range forecast period. The best chance for any sort of active seas comes with a swell off a distant Atlantic storm system, which may approach 5 ft over the weekend. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...Clair SHORT TERM...Clair LONG TERM...Casey AVIATION... MARINE... ####018006562#### FXUS64 KBMX 142351 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 651 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Wednesday) Issued at 1156 AM CDT TUE MAY 14 2024 A low pressure system will continue to move to the east across the TN Valley this afternoon through tonight. Winds will be from the southwest through the day, transitioning to the west tonight, and then the northwest early Wednesday morning. This afternoon, scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible across the entire area. CAMs are trying to show a greater coverage for activity across areas along and north of I20 where instability values are between 2000 and 2500 J/kg, though instabilities south of I20 will be between 2500 and 3000 J/kg in the south and east. Would expect greater forcing in the north, with greater diurnal effects in the south for this afternoon and evening. Instability will be between 30-40 kts throughout the afternoon, with PW values near 90th percentile for this time of year. Though scattered thunderstorms are expected across the entire area, only a few are expected to be strong to possibly severe if those storms can tap into the instability and shear properly. Skies have been partly cloudy in the southern half of the state, with temperatures much warmer and highs anticipated in the low to mid 80s. In areas of the north where cloud cover has been persistent this morning, high temperatures will be in the mid to upper 70s. Overnight tonight, as flow shifts to out of the west, drier and cooler air will begin to advect into the state with activity decreasing from west to east shortly before midnight. By early morning, most activity should be east of the state, with clouds beginning to clear from west to east. As the low pressure continues it's eastward trek, wraparound moisture and forcing could cause isolated weak thunderstorms in the far northeastern counties Wednesday afternoon during the day's peak heating. 24 && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 250 PM CDT TUE MAY 14 2024 Beginning of extended, Wed night through Thu evening, this will hold a break between upper shortwaves as wave number 1 exits to the E off of the Atlantic coast. Wave number 2 will move across as an open wave on the lee side of the Rockies Thu evening. Model solutions differ as to the strength of the upper low/shortwave #2 as it progresses NEWD Fri/ Fri evening and then slides EWD over ERN Conus over the weekend. We should see the best chances of showers and thunderstorms on Fri/Fri night when wave #2 is closest to AL (over OK-MO), before it moves off to the NE toward the Atlantic coast leaving dry weather for the end of the extended. 08 Previous long-term discussion: (Thursday through next Monday) Issued at 309 AM CDT TUE MAY 14 2024 A shortwave ridge will be on an easterly transit across the area on Thursday, behind a trough departing into the western Atlantic. Central Alabama will be rain-free and warm, with highs in the 80s to near 90 in some southern locations. An upper-level disturbance is progged to advance from the Southern Plains toward the Mid Mississippi Valley Friday morning. This will coincide with a broad zone of southerly to southwesterly low-level flow overspreading the Gulf Coast and Deep South. As such, isentropic ascent will be present leading to increasing clouds and rain chances from west-to-east. Widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms are forecast by Friday afternoon with locally heavy rainfall possible along and south of I-20 (latest QPF is 2-4" in these areas). This scenario is not too dissimilar from our recent weather event. Flow aloft is west-southwesterly overspreading much of the Gulf Coast baroclinic zone. It appears the quasi-stationary front will struggle to advance northward, and this leads to a tendency for thunderstorms/higher QPF to dwell closer to the I-10 corridor. While we'll maintain some messaging for locally heavy rainfall/flooding Friday, there's no current concerns for severe weather given the scenario and the differing solutions still present in medium-range guidance. Regardless, some convection is forecast to linger Friday night into Saturday morning, gradually drifting to the east with time. Drier, warmer conditions prevail at the end of the period with a transition to northwesterly deep- layer flow. 40/Sizemore && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 645 PM CDT TUE MAY 14 2024 Latest radar loops and most of the short range computer models suggest that the bulk of the rain/storms this evening will stay north of central Alabama TAF sites. I did include a short duration PROB30 group this evening for all but MGM and TOI, just to give an indication that storm chances are not zero. If the ongoing convection fills in and/or propagates more south, then we will amend the TAFs accordingly. Outside of the rain chances this evening, conditions look to be largely (if not entirely) VFR through the remainder of the forecast period. Winds will pick up out of the west mid/late morning on Wednesday, and could become a little gusty at times. Otherwise, fair weather cumulus and no other restrictions. /61/ && .FIRE WEATHER... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible through this evening, with a chance of showers across the northeast counties on Wednesday. This coincides with elevated moisture values this afternoon and southwesterly 20 foot winds at 5 to 10 mph. A transition to westerly and northwesterly 20 ft winds is forecast Wednesday and Thursday, with overall drier conditions Thursday. Additional wetting rains are forecast on Friday with thunderstorms and locally heavy rainfall possible. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 60 80 57 86 / 60 20 0 0 Anniston 62 79 59 86 / 40 10 0 0 Birmingham 62 80 60 87 / 40 10 0 0 Tuscaloosa 62 82 61 88 / 30 0 0 0 Calera 62 80 61 87 / 20 0 0 0 Auburn 64 80 62 86 / 20 0 0 0 Montgomery 65 83 61 87 / 20 0 0 0 Troy 65 84 61 87 / 20 0 0 0 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM....08 AVIATION.../61/ ####018004727#### FXUS65 KFGZ 142351 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 451 PM MST Tue May 14 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Low pressure will cross to the south of the area on Wednesday, bringing chances for showers and thunderstorms through Thursday. Drier, warmer, and breezy conditions arrive on Friday and continue through the weekend. && .DISCUSSION...Low pressure will move onshore in southern California tonight while a trough to our north starts to dive down to the southeast. The low will cross to the south of our area on Wednesday, then moves off to the east of our area on Thursday as a ridge of high pressure makes its way into the desert southwest. Wednesday and Thursday...moisture will continue to increase across the region on Wednesday with more widespread chances for showers and scattered thunderstorms. While we expect an increase in shower coverage, the rainfall amounts still do not look all that impressive. Most areas that do see some rain will see around 0.10" or less, though some of the more robust storms may drop between 0.25- 0.40". Dynamics are not stellar with this system but any thunderstorms that do develop will have the potential to have some outflow winds in the 30-40 mph range. With the aforementioned trough diving towards the southeast, we will keep some energy moving through the region during the night. With that in mind, it seems likely that there will be some ongoing shower activity as we head through the overnight and into Thursday morning. By Thursday morning, the trough and its lingering energy should be more situated over New Mexico and any early morning showers should be dwindling. Heading through the day Thursday, the low pushes to the east of the region and the more northerly flow should allow for some drier air to infiltrate the region. However, there will still be plenty of moisture in place through day and another round of showers and thunderstorms can be expected. The areas that see showers will be more confined to the Mogollon Rim through the White Mountains, through some isolated showers may develop elsewhere. Shower activity will wane through the evening and everything looks to start clearing out across the region overnight as the dry air wins out. Friday through Tuesday...a ridge of high pressure will follow in the wake of the departing low and trough, allowing the region to dry out and start to warm once again. Consensus is fairly good that we will keep the ridges influence through much of the weekend before the models start to diverge a bit. Another trough/low is expected to develop over the eastern Pacific and track towards Arizona for the start of the week. There are enough differences in the model solutions to have a lower confidence on just how strong/deep the low/trough may be and just how much moisture it may be able to advect into the region. However, it does look unsettled and windy through late in the weekend and into early next week. Stay tuned as we start to unravel what this system may bring to our area. && .AVIATION...Wednesday 15/00Z through Thursday 16/00Z...Mainly VFR conditions are forecast. Brief periods of MVFR conditions are possible in showers/thunderstorms through the early evening and again Wednesday from late morning through the afternoon. Be on the lookout for strong and gusty winds near heavier showers or storms. Otherwise, light and variable winds overnight will become southwest to west at 10-20 kts Wednesday afternoon. OUTLOOK...Thursday 16/00Z through Saturday 18/00Z...Mainly VFR conditions are expected. Precipitation chances will linger through 12Z Thursday, but drier conditions look to return for much of Thursday and Friday. Winds will generally be out of the west 10-20 kts each afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER...Wednesday and Thursday...Scattered showers/thunderstorms expected both Wednesday and Thursday, but look for greater coverage Wednesday afternoon. Expect mostly west winds 5- 15 mph Wednesday, becoming more northwest winds on Thursday. Minimum RH values look to be between 15-30% each afternoon. Friday through Sunday...Warmer and drier weather conditions are expected through the weekend. Look for west-southwest winds 15-25 mph, gusting near 30 mph each afternoon. Expect minimum RH values ranging between 10-20%. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Meola AVIATION...McCollum FIRE WEATHER...Konieczny For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff ####018005482#### FXUS63 KGRR 142351 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 751 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Drying out tonight; sunny/dry for Wednesday - Scattered showers return late Thursday and continue into Friday - Warm with low chances for showers this weekend into early next week && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 340 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024 - Drying out tonight; sunny/dry for Wednesday Low level convergence zone has set up near the Michigan/Indiana border and SB Capes of 500-1000 J/KG related to earlier sunshine has resulted in scattered thunderstorms. The storms are currently tracking west and should remain south of the I-94 corridor based on current radar trends. However would not totally rule out additional development farther north especially if any outflows from those push/fan out northward. Also the convection currently in Lenawee County could clip the JXN area based on current movement. Meanwhile the band of showers farther north near GRR related to mid level deformation have mostly faded with only a few lighter showers/sprinkles remaining. Once the diurnal convection in far srn Lwr MI dissipates after sunset we should be largely dry overnight with only 20 pops lingering into early Wednesday mainly near/south of I-94. Drier air pours in from the north/northeast on Wednesday with decreasing clouds occurring from north to south. Should be a very pleasant day with plenty of sunshine, highs near 70, dew pts in the 40s, and a fresh northeast breeze. - Scattered showers return late Thursday and continue into Friday Pleasant weather will persist early Thursday, with short range models in good agreement that surface ridge will be overhead early in the day. WAA will then increase later on Thursday as the aforementioned ridge migrates east, and a 500 mb short wave trough moves from northern Plains into Upper MS valley. This will set the stage for scattered showers and thunderstorms late Thursday, Thursday Night, and into Friday. Surface forcing weakens considerably by Friday, in response to dampening upper trough. However, still expect scattered /diurnally enhanced/ showers and storms Friday with broad/weak trough aloft, daytime heating, and lake breezes. Low temperatures Thursday morning in the 40s will rebound into the mid 70s Thursday afternoon. Highs on Friday will again reach the 70s. High temps both Thursday and Friday will be several degrees above normal. - Warm with low chances for showers this weekend into early next week Temperatures are expected to remain above normal this weekend into early next week. Though differences exist in the ensemble output, the general trend is for the relatively zonal/progressive flow pattern aloft to become slightly more amplified by early next week, with troughing over the Pacific NW and downstream ridging over Upper MS Valley and Great Lakes. This will support continued warm temperatures, with highs in the 70s to around 80 /again, several degrees above normal/. Current ensemble output provides mixed signals on whether weak short wave energy can still advance into the Great Lakes, even as upper heights slowly build. As a result, the forecast will reflect low chances /20-30%/ for showers Saturday, and again Monday/Tuesday. All in all, expect a decent stretch of weather this weekend and into next week - especially for the mid-late May timeframe - with above normal temperatures and occasional wetting showers. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 751 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024 This forecast period looks to be rather quiet with low impacts expected. A mid cloud deck based around 9-11k ft agl remains over all of the terminals as of 2330z. The southern sites have a lower cloud deck around 4-5k ft agl also. Not really an issue with VFR conditions at all of our terminals. Latest trend in the data indicates that the clouds will be quicker to move out than previous data. Some of the clouds will remain, but they just won't be as widespread. High clouds may linger longer. The only change in the conditions for tomorrow will be less mid cloud cover, and maybe some diurnal cumulus the further south and east you go. The cumulus bases are expected to be VFR around 3-4k ft agl. KMKG will see a lake breeze kick in around 16-18z or so where the wind will switch around to be from the NW. && .MARINE... Issued at 340 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024 The Big Sable Point observation indicates that the stronger northerly winds of 15-20 kts has developed near the Points as anticipated. There may be a further increase in winds north of Whitehall through sunset before falling off and turning more northeasterly after dark. Since the duration of these increased conditions should be brief will not have a Small Craft Advisory. A similar situation is shown for Wednesday afternoon, with northerly flow strengthening over the entire nearshore by mid afternoon and continuing through sunset. Otherwise little support for hazardous marine conditions through the rest of the week. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Meade/Smith AVIATION...NJJ MARINE...Meade ####018008009#### FXUS61 KGYX 142352 CCA AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service Gray ME 752 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024 .SYNOPSIS... After a warm day today, a cold front drops south through the region bringing the chance for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. A stalled frontal boundary will result in unsettled, showery weather for the remainder of the week and through the weekend with temperatures remaining seasonable for mid May. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... 745 PM Update...Showers continue to wane across the region with the loss of daytime heating. An additional stray shower or thunderstorm cannot be ruled out in the western and northern zones this evening but otherwise it will remain dry with fog development late. Previously... A cold front continues to sag southward into northern areas late today and tonight, as warm air continues to spread into southern areas. Some strong gusty thunderstorms and small hail remain possible across northwestern areas into this evening, with some convection starting to show up across northern New York and Vermont. The front makes slow southward progress into northern area tonight and then stalls by morning. This serves to keep most of the scattered shower activity across northern areas overnight, while a few isolated showers make it downwind of the mountains this evening. Most of the coast and southern areas remain dry, but an area of marine fog looks poised to move onshore through the MidCoast after midnight tonight. Additionally, some valley fog is likely across northern areas that see any showers or storms this afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Tomorrow's forecast is looking drier and warmer overall across interior locations outside of the mountains and western New Hampshire. The front looks to remain stalled and gradually wash out across northern areas tomorrow. At the same, a slow moving low pressure system tracks south of New England, spreading moisture northward to where there remains weak forcing along the front. This keeps at least scattered shower activity and clouds ongoing. Meanwhile, across the coastal plain and just back from the shoreline, enough sunshine looks to make it through to allow temps to warm into the 70s. A band of showers associated with the low pressure center may push into southern New Hampshire by late in the afternoon, but most of the rain associated with this system holds off until after dark. Showers and some scattered thunderstorms continue across northern locations through the evening, before waning through the overnight hours. Elsewhere, most of the night looks dry until closer to daybreak on Thursday, at which time more moisture from the low begins to push into southern New Hampshire. Guidance on this feature continues to wobble back and forth, but by late tomorrow night chances for rain increase across southern areas as the low moves closer. Most of Maine and central NH likely stay dry through sunrise on Thursday. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A largely unsettled pattern persists over the area with fuzzy day-to- day details, but a straight-forward broad picture featuring daily chances for mainly-diurnal showers and predominantly mild conditions. From a synoptic standpoint, this is due to predominantly zonal flow over the NOAM mid-latitudes featuring a conga line of northern and southern stream disturbances embedded within the westerlies. At the surface, there is good model agreement keeping high pressure centered over Maritime Canada... and extending south along the New England Coast. The combination of the two gives neither a total- washout of an extended forecast, nor a dry stretch of weather... but somewhere in between. From a hazard perspective, slow-moving/stalled fronts with disturbances running along them will promote potential for back- building and/or training showers and some thunderstorms. Looking through ensemble analysis, it appears as if deeper moisture is shunted south on Thursday with an Atlantic low east of Carolina ingesting much of it... which limits the hydrological threat to some extent. However it cannot be ruled out entirely given the uncertain specifics of the pattern, especially if certain locales near these fronts (such as across the mountains) see repeated rounds of rainfall. This flow regime also promotes periods of onshore flow. Much like the last several days however a source region from the Maritime Canada high may not be humid enough to produce classic "socked in" conditions along the coastal plain. Early looks at boundary layer lapse rates suggests as much. So ultimately it looks like we'll enjoy nicer weather than surface wind direction may otherwise imply with temperatures generally warming into the 60s and 70s... modified by afternoon showers and storms, and by the sea breeze. Ensemble solutions suggest the greatest inroads for the marine layer comes this weekend, with the aforementioned southern stream Atlantic low potentially drifting north and bringing some of its moisture into the easterly flow across the Gulf of Maine. Although humid, PoP has actually trended down around that time given a lack of adequate phasing and forcing. On a personal note, this is my final forecast for the WFO Gray office before shipping off to my next adventure. I've greatly enjoyed my last 5 years in Maine, especially the skiing and living in one of the greatest foodie cities in America. Many thanks to those I've had the privilege to call friends and/or colleagues, you've made this Michigander feel at home from day one. I'll miss the Nor'easters, but maybe not so much the marine layer! You all are in great hands with this group of dedicated meteorologists (and hydrologists, and electronics technicians, and every other cog in the NWS wheel). && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Short Term...VFR continues into the evening, and through most of tomorrow at most terminals. The exceptions will be RKD and AUG, where a period of marine fog likely brings IFR conditions after midnight tonight through tomorrow morning, before gradually improving tomorrow morning. Showers and an isolated thunderstorm are likely at HIE and LEB this evening, bringing brief restrictions. VFR prevails most of the day tomorrow, except at HIE where MVFR may linger most of the day. Ceilings gradually lower again tomorrow night, with marine fog possible at RKD and AUG again Long Term...Low confidence in the day to day details of the forecast exists, especially along the coast. However the pattern suggests prevailing VFR with potential for periodic restrictions in overnight FG or afternoon/evening SHRA. && .MARINE... Short Term...Some brief gusts to near 25kt are likely across the southern waters into this evening, but otherwise conditions are expected to remain below SCA levels through at least tomorrow night. A cold front stalls north of the waters tonight, with low pressure slowly tracking south of the waters through tomorrow night. Areas of dense fog are likely after midnight tonight across the eastern waters. Long Term...Weak pressure gradient force keeps winds and seas below SCA thresholds through the long range forecast period. The best chance for any sort of active seas comes with a swell off a distant Atlantic storm system, which may approach 5 ft over the weekend. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...Clair SHORT TERM...Clair LONG TERM...Casey AVIATION... MARINE... ####018006179#### FXUS64 KEPZ 142352 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 552 PM MDT Tue May 14 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 130 PM MDT Tue May 14 2024 Warm conditions will continue with temperatures increasing to the mid 90s to near 100 by Sunday. A passing storm system will bring some showers and thunderstorms to mainly northern areas and mountains on Thursday. Breezy to windy conditions are expected for Sunday and, especially, Monday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 130 PM MDT Tue May 14 2024 S/w ridge covers the southern half of NM extending into Mexico this afternoon. Nevertheless the proximity of an UL low and some mid-level moisture is fostering some showers across the Gila, Black, and Sacramento Mountains. These will largely dissipate or move into Alburquerque's CWA by evening. A lightning strike cannot be ruled out, but for the most part impacts will be minimal. The ridge will slide to the east while the UL low meanders over AZ. This will keep the mid-level moisture in place while keeping some favorable dynamics over the northern half of NM. A few more showers will be possible again over our mountains. On Thursday the UL low begins to move east across NM while opening up into a wave. Attendant moisture and cold pool dynamics will bring rain and thunder chances to at least the northern half of the CWA and especially our mountains. Instability will be meager along with shear, but given pattern recognition I wouldn't be surprised by some small hail and/or gusty winds given the cold temperatures aloft and high bases. If anyone is lucky to get beneath any of these showers or thunderstorm, rainfall amounts are expected to be light. The system will also kick up breezes. The system kicks out of here Friday morning keeping us breezy on Friday. Ridging will build in its wake allowing temperatures to increase for the weekend. By Sunday, we'll be on the western half of the ridge, allowing southwest flow to further warm our temperatures. We will be close to 100 for the first time in El Paso on Sunday. This deep southwest flow is thanks to a sharp s/w that will push across the state on Monday. GFS is more intense with this trough passage, but either way, Monday looks very warm to hot and at least breezy. If the GFS verifies, we could be looking at widespread fire concerns. The Euro's tamer decision would keep conditions more elevated to critical. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 552 PM MDT Tue May 14 2024 VFR conditions through the period with SCT250. SCT-BKN120 until about 04Z. Surface winds southwest/west 10-13G20 knots mostly diminishing to variable AOB 7 knots after 04Z. Winds remaining west 10-12 knots along International Border. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 130 PM MDT Tue May 14 2024 No significant fire concerns anticipated for the next five days. Mountains have a low chance for dry lightning this afternoon and tomorrow, but chances for any individual location are less than 10 percent. Min RH values will be very dry for Wednesday with single digit values, but a passing system will help improve moisture for Thursday. Showers and a few thunderstorms are possible as well (20-50% chance) with the highest chance in the mountains. Rainfall accumulations will be light, so isolated dry lightning cannot be ruled out. Winds for Wednesday will top out around 10 MPH but will increase to around 15 MPH for Thursday. This system exits by Friday with increasingly warm and dry conditions expected in its wake. It is a bit beyond the forecast window for fire, but Monday will be particularly warm and dry. Winds are a bit uncertain, but some guidance is forecasting widespread critical conditions. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 66 92 65 87 / 0 0 0 10 Sierra Blanca 60 86 59 81 / 0 0 0 10 Las Cruces 57 91 57 85 / 0 0 0 20 Alamogordo 54 89 53 81 / 0 0 0 30 Cloudcroft 43 66 40 58 / 0 0 0 50 Truth or Consequences 57 87 56 78 / 0 0 0 30 Silver City 50 79 48 75 / 0 0 0 20 Deming 53 89 53 83 / 0 0 0 10 Lordsburg 52 86 52 83 / 0 0 0 10 West El Paso Metro 62 89 61 84 / 0 0 0 10 Dell City 54 91 56 85 / 0 0 0 20 Fort Hancock 58 93 59 88 / 0 0 0 10 Loma Linda 57 83 56 78 / 0 0 0 10 Fabens 60 91 61 88 / 0 0 0 10 Santa Teresa 57 87 56 83 / 0 0 0 10 White Sands HQ 64 89 62 83 / 0 0 0 20 Jornada Range 52 89 51 82 / 0 0 0 20 Hatch 53 90 52 84 / 0 0 0 20 Columbus 60 88 58 84 / 0 0 0 10 Orogrande 55 88 55 81 / 0 0 0 20 Mayhill 47 79 45 69 / 0 0 0 50 Mescalero 47 77 44 69 / 0 0 0 60 Timberon 46 76 43 69 / 0 0 0 40 Winston 48 78 46 72 / 0 10 0 40 Hillsboro 53 85 51 78 / 0 0 0 30 Spaceport 52 87 51 81 / 0 0 0 30 Lake Roberts 45 81 43 75 / 0 10 10 30 Hurley 47 83 46 76 / 0 0 0 10 Cliff 50 86 50 81 / 0 0 0 20 Mule Creek 51 81 49 77 / 0 0 0 10 Faywood 51 82 50 77 / 0 0 0 20 Animas 51 86 51 83 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 54 86 53 83 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 53 85 52 82 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 51 79 49 77 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...17-Hefner ####018007315#### FXUS62 KFFC 142353 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 753 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024 ...New 00Z Aviation Discussion... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Wednesday) Issued at 252 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024 Currently, the warm front is draped across central Georgia just north of a line from Lagrange to Macon and will continue to attempt to progress northward. The northward progression this morning has been somewhat slow as the relatively cooler airmass over north Georgia from the earlier isentropically lifted showers is in place. The big question today will be how far north and east that boundary will drift as the cool airmass across far northeast Georgia may be able to hang on a bit longer than models suggest. While the wedge of cooler air typically wins out most days, this is likely not going to be the case today with only light rainfall amounts observed. Current satellite trends reveal some clearing cloud coverage along and just north of the I-20 corridor. As the surface is able to warm, that boundary should be able to drift northward with relative ease. If locations are able to get enough diurnal surface heating this afternoon, a conditional severe weather threat is expected to play out this afternoon and evening. As the upper level shortwave passes overhead with the surface low passing to our north later this afternoon/evening, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to fire within the warm sector and along the frontal boundary. Storms may become multicell clusters as they march eastward. With an increasing gradient of SBCAPE ~500+ J/kg from north Georgia to 1500 J/kg across northern central Georgia, low level lapse rates around 6.5 C/km, and effective bulk shear between 30-40KT, a few storms could become strong to severe. The best chance for severe weather will be across north Georgia today where there is better upper level support in place. SPC has placed these locations in a Slight Risk (Level 2 out of 5) for severe weather with areas further south in a Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 5) for severe weather. The greatest hazard in any thunderstorm this afternoon and evening will be damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph. Hail up to 1 inch may also be possible in the strongest storms with mid level lapse rates around 6 C/km. While there is a nonzero threat for a brief spin up tornado, those probabilities are on the lower end today. Overnight, the cold front to our west will push through the area. Moisture wrapping around the backside of the low pressure system could produce isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday for areas north of the I-20 corridor. However, the environment to support strong to severe storms will not be as robust tomorrow as it is today. A few storms could still become strong tomorrow with gusty winds and frequent lightning being the primary concerns. Rainfall through the short term forecast period will be around a quarter to a half inch, with locally higher amounts possible in the strongest storms. Maximum high temperatures today in the 70s to low 80s are trending cooler than average, but will rebound tomorrow closer to climatological norms with highs topping out in the mid 70s to mid 80s. Overnight lows will only drop to the 60s thanks to considerable cloud coverage. KAL && .LONG TERM... (Thursday morning through next Monday) Issued at 252 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024 Beginning the long term with Thursday, ridging looks to be firmly in place over Georgia with the low pressure system off into the Atlantic. Sfc high pressure and NW winds will lead to conditions drying out and an overall pleasant albeit slightly breezy day. Pattern change comes Friday as the low -pressure system over Texas moves over the mid Mississippi valley. At the surface we have seen rain chances backing off for Friday as this system has slowed down slightly. The system looks to begin affecting our area Friday overnight into Saturday. Current thinking is that the low pressure system is to move out over the Atlantic by the end of the weekend, with rain chances tapering off Sunday into Monday. There does still remain model spread when it comes to if this system affects north and central GA or if it is more a central GA affected area. The dynamics and instability exist further towards central GA so this will be our main area to watch for thunderstorm activity but overall not expecting a big severe event. One thing we have been keeping an eye on is the amount of rainfall expected. We are currently looking at forecasted PWs at 2-2.5" which is high for this time of year based on climatology. This is mostly a swath over central and southern GA (generally south of the fall line) which is a slight positive in that area. Should this system move through fast, we probably won't see as much affect for flooding but should the storms and showers decide to stick around there will be more of a flooding threat for this area. The slight risk for flooding is just barely clipping the Columbus area so as models come into more agreement tomorrow and THursday we will get a better idea of the threat possible when it comes to flooding. Current QPF values are up to 2.5-2.75" for this area. Hernandez && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 743 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024 Ceilings have improved through the afternoon, reaching VFR as the TAF period begins. MVFR ceilings are forecast to redevelop by 02-03Z this evening, along with increased coverage of SHRA/TSRA. As a cluster of storms moves in from the northwest and more storms continue to develop from west-central Georgia, the most likely time for TSRA at the ATL sites appears to be from 02-06Z. Ceilings are anticipated to drop to IFR by 08Z on Wednesday morning, with some scattered LIFR clouds possible. Cannot rule out the development of LIFR ceilings in the early morning hours, but this will depend on how much rainfall occurs this evening at a given site. PROB30 for SHRA/TSRA will return on Wednesday afternoon for northern TAF sites. Winds will be primarily SW at 5-10 kts through the morning hours, shifting to W at 8-12 kts with occasional gusts up to 20 kts on Wednesday afternoon. //ATL Confidence...00Z Update... High confidence on winds. Medium confidence on all other elements. King && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 62 80 61 86 / 50 30 20 0 Atlanta 64 80 62 85 / 50 30 20 0 Blairsville 58 73 57 78 / 70 70 50 0 Cartersville 61 79 59 84 / 60 40 30 0 Columbus 66 83 62 88 / 50 10 0 0 Gainesville 63 77 62 84 / 60 50 30 0 Macon 65 83 62 88 / 50 10 10 0 Rome 61 79 59 85 / 60 50 30 0 Peachtree City 63 81 61 86 / 40 20 10 0 Vidalia 69 86 66 88 / 50 10 10 0 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...KAL LONG TERM....Hernandez AVIATION...King ####018008212#### FXUS62 KTBW 142353 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 753 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 710 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024 Brief reprieve this evening as the forecast area is between systems. A former MCS over the central Gulf of Mexico/loop current has rapidly dissipated during the past few hours as it moved east toward the eastern Gulf. Residual high cloudiness is currently spreading over west central and southwest Florida and will persist for the next several hours. Otherwise, a frontal boundary will approach north Florida overnight with a band of showers and thunderstorms redeveloping across north Florida and the northeast Gulf of Mexico around or shortly after midnight as the atmosphere gradually destabilizes. There is a slight chance for severe thunderstorms across Levy county where BWD will be in the range of 30 to 40 knots late tonight and a LLJ of similar strength, along with mid level CAA with a pocket of 50T's in the -9 to -11 range advecting across the region. This will create conditions favorable for damaging wind gusts and hail with stronger updrafts. The boundary/line of showers and storms will sink very slowly south late tonight and Wednesday as it will be nearly parallel to the U/L flow. A marginal risk for severe storms will extend across the central Florida peninsula associated with the boundary mainly due to the mid level cold pocket, daytime heating increasing convective instability, and sustained LLJ. However, it appears that the best U/L support will be exiting east of the area which will be an inhibiting factor and should lead to decreasing areal coverage/weakening trend. Would suspect best chance for stronger storms would be over the interior during the afternoon hours, if a west coast sea breeze boundary is able to develop and push inland due to the southwest flow...which would aid in creating additional boundary collisions. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 253 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024 A shortwave trough continues to advance eastward across the Mississippi Valley today with the associated trailing cold front stretching southward into the Gulf of Mexico. A series of impulses embedded along the southern periphery of the trough continue to bring clusters of storms from the Gulf of Mexico across the Florida peninsula with a line of storms that moved through earlier and brought reports of severe wind gusts is now moving off the Atlantic coast as well as another cluster of storms currently in the east-central Gulf. Despite recent satellite imagery showing an organized cloud shield with cloud tops as cold as around -70C, latest CAMs generally show a weakening trend with this feature as it approaches the west central FL coast by this evening but a brief severe risk may exist if this activity can hold together enough. The next and more likely severe risk will occur on Wednesday as the trough shifts east and pushes a southward sagging cold front into central Florida where this frontal boundary will eventually stall. In addition to the frontal boundary, strong westerly winds aloft of 80+ kts at 300mb will move across the area and this will increase deep layer shear with 0-6 km bulk shear values around 35-45 kts. This combined with good CAPE values as high as 3000 J/kg and 500mb temps around -10C will support scattered to numerous convection across the region with potential for damaging wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes and/or waterspouts. In addition to the severe risk, WPC has placed much of the region in a Marginal risk of excessive rainfall and while previous 30 day rainfall observations compared to percent of normal are generally in the lowest 10th-25th percentile (or even less in isolated areas), the westerly flow aloft should align well with the west-to-east oriented frontal boundary to possibly support training of storms. Regardless, this will be an opportunity for very needed rain across much of the area, especially areas that haven't receive too much precipitation in recent days but we be monitoring for any training/flooding potential, which would be rather localized if anything does occur at all. Transient ridging moves across the area by Thursday and this will bring a decrease to rain chances with PoPs less than 15% from Tampa Bay northward, though isolated to scattered storms will be possible for southern portions of the forecast area where deeper moisture will exist and interacts with the lingering frontal boundary. This frontal boundary then lifts north as a warm front by Friday as low pressure system in the central US shifts across the OH valley and drives the next cold front towards the area for the upcoming weekend. As a result, PoPs will be on the increase once again over the weekend as models show this frontal boundary approaching late Saturday into Sunday. Despite a possible frontal passage by early next week, a model consensus of PoPs still supports precipitation chances into the end of the forecast period as troughing aloft may linger over the area, though it appears overall precipitation coverage should still be on a decreasing trend into early week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 710 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024 VFR conditions expected this evening at all terminals. A few showers may develop late tonight/early tomorrow morning vcnty PIE/TPA with LCL MVFR CIGs/VSBYs. A band of showers/thunderstorms will approach PIE/TPA/LAL tomorrow afternoon with LCL MVFR CIGs and IFR VSBYs. Otherwise VFR CIGs will prevail. Southern terminals will remain VFR tonight and Wednesday. && .MARINE... Issued at 253 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024 Several more storm clusters are expected to move across the Gulf waters with the next round possibly occurring this evening, though there remains uncertainty with how much of this activity will hold together. However, a cold front will gradually push southward across the region with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms spreading from north to south throughout the day. Some of this activity to produce strong winds, waterspouts, lightning, and torrential downpours. In addition, small craft exercise cautionary levels will be possible on Wednesday outside of thunderstorms as gusty southwest winds will be in place throughout the day. Winds then decrease late week as weak high pressure builds in with decreasing rain chances, though another cold front will arrive by next weekend with increasing precipitation chances once again. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 253 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024 Storm clusters will continue to move across the area ahead of a cold front with the next cluster possibly approaching the area this evening. However, better rain chances area-wide will occur on Wednesday as a cold front gradually pushes southward across the region with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms as well as needed rainfall to many areas. Drier weather then returns late week as weak high pressure builds in with minimum RH values dropping into the upper 30 percent range for interior areas, though red flag conditions are not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 77 86 76 88 / 50 90 20 10 FMY 79 91 77 91 / 10 50 40 40 GIF 74 88 72 92 / 40 70 20 10 SRQ 77 88 76 89 / 40 70 40 10 BKV 71 87 67 90 / 60 80 10 10 SPG 79 85 78 87 / 50 90 30 10 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 5 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 5 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Oglesby DECISION SUPPORT...Hurt UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Hurt ####018005287#### FXUS63 KICT 142354 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 654 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Storm chances increasing tonight with the better widespread storm chances late Wed afternoon and especially Wed night. - Strong to severe storms possible with any storm that develop tonight through Wed night. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 304 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Water vapor imagery currently shows an upper low about to move into western IL with a couple of impulses showing up out west. One is lifting out of the Central Rockies and moving into western SD with another piece of energy over the Northern Intermountain. At the surface, a narrow area of weak high pressure extends from eastern Nebraska through central KS and into TX. Meanwhile, lee troughing extends from western Nebraska into Eastern CO. Storms are expected to develop this afternoon over northwest KS as a weak cold front starts to move into the area in response to an upper impulse sliding across SD and northern Nebraska. Some of this activity will try and affect our central KS counties after 00z Wed. A few additional storms will be possible late tonight into Wed morning as 850-700mb moisture transport ramps-up and a fairly impressive 700mb baroclinic zone lifts northeast across the forecast area. While instability isn't extremely high, there looks to be around 500-1000J/KG above 850mb which should be enough to get at least dime to nickel size hail with some of the stronger storms early Wed morning. By Wed afternoon, weak cold front will extend from eastern Nebraska into central KS and finally into the TX Panhandle. Storms are expected to try and develop along this boundary during the late afternoon. However, convergence will not be that impressive so confidence is low on how much activity there will be. The most likely area of late afternoon/early evening development will be west and southwest of the forecast area, which will be closer to the surface low and enhanced upslope and convergence north of it over western OK/SW KS. Looks to be decent model agreement in an MCS tracking across southern KS/northern OK Wed night as low level jet ramps-up once again. Any storm that develops late Wed afternoon or Wed evening will have a chance to be severe with large hail and damaging winds the main threats. By Thu morning, weak shortwave trough will be moving into the Western Great Lakes region with a southern stream impulse over southern NM/southwest TX. We should see some lingering morning convection on Thu, especially across southern and eastern KS as mid level baroclinic zone remains across much of the area. Storm chances on Thu will be highly dependent on remnant outflow boundary location from Wed night storms and how much recovery can occur. Best chance for widespread convection will be over the southern Plains which will be closer to the southern stream impulse that is expected to reach the High Plains late Thu afternoon. Models start to diverge on their position of the southern stream shortwave by 12z Fri. The GFS is the furthest northeast with this feature with a closed low over northeast OK. Meanwhile, the ECMWF and Canadian have it near the Red River. The NAM is the furthest southwest and has the low over west TX. Right now going with the thinking that the NAM is the outlier which would put the better rain chances over southeast KS on Fri as the upper impulse lifts off to the northeast. Pattern is expected to remain fairly progressive as another shortwave tracks across the Northern Plains late Fri night through Sat, which will allow another weak cold front to move through. However, not going with much precip as the front moves through mostly dry, due to lack of moisture. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 641 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024 A weak complex of showers/storms is expected to progress east- southeast into central Kansas by 04-06z, possibly reaching eastern Kansas around sunrise early Wednesday. Instability is rather meager, although may be sufficient for at least a few embedded thunderstorms. Only mentioned -SHRA and gusty winds for now, and may include TS with later TAF issuances/amendments. Hit-or-miss shower/thunderstorm chances should linger over eastern Kansas Wednesday morning within a zone of mid-level warm advection. Additionally, may see a period of low clouds and/or low visibilities over far eastern Kansas from about 10-15z late tonight into Wednesday morning. Only hinted at this potential for now in the CNU TAF, as better low clouds/visibility potential will probably remain just east of there. The potential exists for patchy IFR or LIFR. Furthermore, additional more robust thunderstorm chances look to arrive areawide by late Wednesday afternoon, as a frontal zone traverses the region. Some of these storms may be strong to severe. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...RBL AVIATION...ADK ####018006627#### FXUS61 KBUF 142354 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 754 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Unsettled weather will continue across the area through Wednesday as a frontal boundary stalls over the Lower Great Lakes, producing occasional showers and a few scattered thunderstorms. The greatest coverage of rain will be Wednesday afternoon well inland from the lakes, with lower coverage of showers close to Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. Weak high pressure will build into the Lower Great Lakes Thursday with mainly dry weather before another front brings rain back to the region later Friday through Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Showers will gradually decrease in coverage this evening with the loss of weak diurnal instability. Overnight, a weak mid level circulation and associated vorticity maxima will drift north out of PA, while a weak surface cold front gradually moves south out of southern Ontario into NY, providing an increase in low level convergence. This will support an area of showers overnight across the Southern Tier and western Finger Lakes, with a few spotty showers still possible across the North Country as well. Expect mainly dry weather overnight close to Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. Patchy fog will develop overnight, especially in areas which receive rainfall this afternoon and evening. Wednesday, the weak mid level circulation over northeast PA in the morning will consolidate into a mid level closed low near or just south of NYC by evening. Meanwhile, a weak surface front will continue to linger over NY through most of the day. Deep moisture and weak forcing will again combine with modest diurnal instability to support increasing showers and a few embedded thunderstorms through the day. The best coverage of rain will start from the Southern Tier into the Finger Lakes in the morning, then gradually spread north through the day. Similar to today, the lowest chance of rain will be close to Lake Erie and Lake Ontario where stable lake cooled air lowers instability. Flow will again be weak, supporting slow motion with any thunderstorms and the risk of locally heavy rainfall. Wednesday night, showers will gradually diminish and end from northwest to southeast as high pressure surface and aloft moves from the Upper Great Lakes into the Lower Great Lakes overnight. Some patchy fog may develop again, especially in areas that receive rainfall. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Thursday, a mid level low will be starting the period just off the Virgina coastline. While most of the precipitation will be centered near this feature, a stationary boundary draped across eastern zones may trigger a few showers. Instability is minor, but still enough that a few rumbles of thunder are possible. Northeast flow over Lake Ontario will keep the southern shoreline in the low to mid 60s, otherwise most of the area will make a run at 70F. As a mid level ridge builds towards our region Thursday night, any shower activity will quickly fade. Mainly dry for Thursday night. Friday will become a little more active as a trough approaches the eastern Great Lakes. Ahead of this trough southwest flow of deeper moisture will fuel more coverage area to showers and perhaps a thunderstorm for Friday. Greatest coverage area will likely be Friday night as the trough of low pressure draws closer to our region. Southerly flow Friday will aid in temperatures reaching into the 70s across the region. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Shower activity continues through most of the long term period. A trough moving through the area early Saturday will continue the potential for showers through the morning. As the trough departs to the east, shower activity will diminish through the day on Saturday. The potential for showers will continue through the period, but to a lesser extent then Saturday morning as a few different systems pass by mainly to the north and south through the rest of the long term period. A larger trough and mid-level low over the mid-Atlantic will keep showers in or near the forecast area for much of the forecast period. The driest day as of now looks like Sunday, but there is still much variability among the models for the later portion of the long term and into the new work week. Temperatures during the period will be mainly above normal with highs in the low to upper 70s for the lower elevations inland from the lakes. For the higher terrain and areas closest to the lakes with onshore winds highs will be in the low 60s to near 70. Currently, Saturday will be the coolest day of the period, with some warmer temperatures for Sunday-Tuesday with most of the three days around the same temperatures for afternoon highs. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR conditions across the region this evening will deteriorate later tonight...as a stalled frontal boundary in the vcnty of Lake Ontario will drift south. CIGs will drop of to MVFR levels during the second half of the night...with IFR conditions in stratus and fog forecast for most of the TAF sites. Wednesday, low stratus will continue much of the day, with areas of MVFR and local IFR CIGS persisting. Showers will again increase in coverage, with the greatest coverage of rain across inland areas and the lowest coverage close to Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. A few spotty thunderstorms may develop in the afternoon again. Outlook... Wednesday night...Showers gradually ending. Areas of MVFR/IFR in low stratus and patchy fog. Thursday...VFR. Friday...VFR. A chance of showers late. Saturday...Areas of MVFR with showers likely. Sunday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers. && .MARINE... Generally light winds will continue through the remainder of the week. Winds will become northeast overnight through Wednesday and increase into the 10-14 knot range on Lake Erie and Lake Ontario, producing choppy conditions at times. Light winds will return Thursday as weak high pressure builds over the eastern Great Lakes. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock NEAR TERM...Hitchcock SHORT TERM...Thomas LONG TERM...SW AVIATION...Hitchcock/RSH MARINE...Hitchcock