####018005346#### FXUS61 KCTP 070545 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 1245 AM EST Sun Dec 7 2025 .SYNOPSIS... * Mostly cloudy and not as cold to start the 1st weekend of December * Periods of light snow over the western and northern Alleghenies this weekend; minor accumulation (T-1.5") expected Sunday in the NW * Cold weather pattern continues through the coming week with clipper systems providing additional opportunities for light snow or mixed precip && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 AM THIS MORNING/... Clouds are not currently bearing any precip over the CWA. The clouds have stretched a bit farther SE than machine forecast, and have adjusted upward accordingly. The deck is fairly thin, so it is expected that some thinning/breaks will occur for a couple of hours before more clouds (higher decks) move over those areas later tonight and Sunday morning. The clouds will keep temps from dipping too far overnight over most of the area. Prev... Modest lift associated with a front tied to sfc low over Hudson Bay...followed by a short window of marginally favorable WNWly cross-lake wind will result in light, lake/terrain enhanced snow showers spilling southeast downwind of Lake Erie across the NW mtns along the Allegheny Front into the Laurel Highlands this afternoon into the early evening. Little to no accumulation is expected. Light snow will reposition along the lakeshore and come to an end in the NW mtns early tonight as the low level wind trajectory backs to the WSW. As the layer of moisture becomes more shallow, there is a brief window late this afternoon into early this evening when it may be predominantly composed of supercooled liquid and result in spotty freezing drizzle in the higher terrain, but any impacts are expected to be localized and minimal. && .SHORT TERM /9 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Split/northern stream trough swings through on Sunday and brings another period of light snow primarily to the NW Alleghenies during the late afternoon into the first part of Sunday night. Snowfall amounts from NBM, WPC and RRFS have all trended a bit lower in the 1-2" range over Warren/McKean and C-1" elsewhere along the Allegheny Front. Don't expect much more than a few flurries or spotty fzdz into late Sunday night followed by gradual clearing into early Monday morning behind increasing large scale subsidence and much drier air poised to accompany modified arctic high pressure eastward from the Midwest. 1030mb high migrating over CPA will ensure dry and cold wx on Monday. Daytime highs are fcst to stay below the freezing mark. Monday night looks bitter cold to frigid with lows in the single digits to low teens. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... High pressure shifts east of the I95 corridor by Tuesday afternoon as another northern/split stream trough traverses the Great Lakes. This feature looks to brush the northern tier with another light snowfall. The large scale upper flow will become more amplified for the middle to late week period with a persistent trough in the east and ridging over the Rockies and Western States. Several clippers moving eastward from the Rockies will provide more opportunities for winter ptype from Wednesday into next weekend. A few models suggest a more well developed storm impacting the Mid Atl Friday. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... MVFR/low-end VFR stratus continues to expand southeastward and now blankets all of central Pennsylvania. HREF probs for IFR ceilings the rest of tonight are highest at JST (80-90%), though a period of IFR is also possible at BFD prior to sunrise. MVFR or VFR conditions will continue farther to the east. Expect MVFR conditions to return to JST after sunrise for at least a few hours. An area of low pressure will track north of Pennsylvania during the day on Sunday, bringing snow showers into northwestern parts of the state for the afternoon. Ceilings will drop to IFR at BFD and JST as the system approaches. The best chance for snow will be at BFD, potentially leading to a period of IFR visibility, but some guidance suggests that the snow showers could make it as far southeast as UNV (<10% chance). Snow comes to an end between 00Z-03Z Monday as high pressure quickly builds in behind the system. Skies will first begin to clear out for the southeastern terminals as a downsloping northwest wind develops, and a trend toward VFR conditions will continue across the rest of the airspace into the early morning. Outlook... Mon...Mainly VFR Tue-Thu...Restrictions possible with snow or mixed ptype, especially across the northern half of Pennsylvania, as multiple low pressure systems track through the northeastern US. Gusts 20-30 kts. && .CLIMATE... * Astronomical winter (solstice) begins at 10:03 a.m. on Sunday, December 21st && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Dangelo/Colbert NEAR TERM...Dangelo SHORT TERM...Steinbugl/Colbert LONG TERM...Steinbugl/Colbert AVIATION...Bauco CLIMATE...Steinbugl ####018005338#### FXUS62 KMFL 070545 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 1245 AM EST Sun Dec 7 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1237 AM EST Sun Dec 7 2025 - Areas of fog, some dense, and low cloud decks may again develop early this morning over interior and southern FL. - Dry and comfortable weather continues through tonight, when chances for rain start to increase ahead a frontal approach. - Above average temperatures continue through this weekend with highs increasing to the mid to upper 80s again today. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 1237 AM EST Sun Dec 7 2025 Patchy fog will once again be of concern early this morning. ACARS sounding data across South Florida show enough remnant moisture below 800mb; this, combined with light winds overnight, could allow for fog to develop across areas of the interior and southwest Florida. SREF and HREF guidance both have about 30 to 50% chance of visibilities dropping below 1 mile between 2-10AM. Any fog that does develop should clear out shortly after sunrise. A gradual pattern change begins today as a cold front gradually sags southward along the Florida peninsula. Latest observations place the front draped over central Florida this morning, and guidance suggests it will gradually move southward and reach the Lake Okeechobee area tonight, then continue to drift southward on Monday and clear the peninsula late Monday into Tuesday. Southerly to southwesterly flow ahead of the front will support a gradual warming and moistening trend across the area today, with temperatures this afternoon rising to the mid and upper 80s ( a few degrees above the climo normals), and PWATs in the 1.5-1.8 inch range (above the climatological 90th percentile). Chances for rain start to increase tonight once the front reaches our area, but the bulk of the scattered shower and thunderstorm activity will most likely come between early morning and early afternoon on Monday. Rainfall accumulations should remain below 1 inch for most of the area, but there is a 1 in 10 chances that some spots in the vicinity of Lake Okeechobee could get 1-2 inches of rain throughout the day on Monday. Increased cloudiness and precip on Monday will help moderate temperatures, with highs peaking in the low 80s. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 1237 AM EST Sun Dec 7 2025 Cooler, drier air is forecast to move over the area behind the front on Tuesday and high pressure will build over the southeast US and the Florida peninsula. This should help promote fair weather and dry conditions through the middle of the week. Temperatures on Tuesday morning will dip to the mid 50s across the interior and mid 60s along the East Coast, and will struggle to rise above the upper 70s in the afternoon. The next cold front to watch could make its approach late next week, although much uncertainty remains regarding timing and intensity, especially given the complex interactions at play over the continental US during this time period. Cluster analysis for days 5- 6 (Thursday-Friday) show generalized differences between the ECMWF, GEFS and GEPS ensemble members, with the European model generally favoring a slower and weaker trough (which would result in a weaker front and slower/later approach to our area), while the GEFS/GEPS split the difference in faster/stronger solutions with fewer ensemble members overall. For now, we're keeping the NBM forecast for increased moisture and low-end PoPs (15-30%) starting Friday, but but we'll continue to monitor for any changes to the forecast. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1237 AM EST Sun Dec 7 2025 VFR conditions are forecast to prevail through the period. KAPF could experience periods of MVFR/IFR conditions early this morning as fog and low cigs are forecast to develop across southwest FL. Calm winds overnight become southerly in the late morning. && .MARINE... Issued at 1237 AM EST Sun Dec 7 2025 Generally benign boating conditions prevail over the weekend as light to moderate southerly to southwesterly breeze persists. Seas are forecast to remain at 1-3 feet across all local waters. As we head into next week, conditions could deteriorate as winds increase and veer from the north with a frontal passage. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 84 72 85 67 / 10 10 30 10 West Kendall 86 69 85 65 / 0 10 30 10 Opa-Locka 86 71 85 67 / 10 20 30 10 Homestead 85 72 85 67 / 0 10 30 10 Fort Lauderdale 83 71 83 67 / 10 20 40 10 N Ft Lauderdale 84 72 84 67 / 10 20 40 10 Pembroke Pines 86 71 85 67 / 10 20 40 10 West Palm Beach 86 70 82 66 / 20 30 40 10 Boca Raton 86 70 85 67 / 10 20 40 20 Naples 83 71 81 62 / 20 40 50 0 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...ATV LONG TERM....ATV AVIATION...ATV ####018006165#### FXUS62 KCHS 070546 AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 1246 AM EST Sun Dec 7 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A frontal system will maintain unsettled weather into Monday, then cold high pressure will build in. A reinforcing cold front will move through Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Through sunrise: The feed of deep moisture has shifted to the south with a rather notable precipitable water gradient in place across the forecast area. The far inland counties are down around 0.5" while the far southern end of the GA coast is up to around 1.25". This belt of moisture could shift a bit further south, but will likely remain as it is for the next several hours. Therefore, most of the forecast area will not see additional rain, except for the area around southern Long County, McIntosh County and coastal Liberty/Bryan. The main forecast challenge instead is low stratus and fog which is already ongoing across the SC Midlands. The setup is good with wet ground from all the recent rainfall, light to calm winds, and high clouds trying to clear out from the north. Model guidance favors the best chance for more greater coverage and lower visibility is inland of the coast. Dense fog is possible and we will have to monitor the need for Dense Fog Advisories. Today: Aloft, the pattern will continue to feature southwest flow as a shortwave digs across the Plains and approaches the MS Valley. At the surface, high pressure will remain the primary feature with a front still draped off the Southeast coast, across north FL, and across the northern Gulf. There is good model agreement that the moisture feed and precipitation shield to the south will gradually spread back to the north along the GA coast through the morning. One of the main forecast questions is how far north will the light rainfall spread. Hi-res model consensus and the HREF favors the light precipitation getting as far north as Hinesville, Savannah, and almost up to Beaufort and the Charleston County coast. Additional rainfall amounts will be light with a few hundredths to a tenth along a line from Reidsville to Savannah and Beaufort south, then up to a quarter of an inch across McIntosh County and portions of the GA coast. It will be yet another very chilly and cloudy day with highs only reaching the low 50s for most of the area. Tonight: The shortwave will push east of the lower MS Valley and toward the southern Appalachians. This will drive surface low development across the northeast Gulf as well as off the Southeast coast. Most of the rainfall will remain to the south and southeast along the boundary and associated with the developing surface low. However, we will see an area of light precipitation develop more closely associated with the trough aloft and track across MS, AL, and GA. While these showers will mostly remain west of the forecast area through the overnight, a few showers could get into the far western zones by around sunrise. We will still be in an environment with plenty of low- level moisture so low stratus will persist and we could again see fog development. Lows are forecast to fall into the low to mid 40s in most areas. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Scattered showers will move through Monday morning as the primary shortwave passes by to the northwest. Meanwhile, cool high pressure will build from the west. Tuesday looks fairly cool with highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s, but temps quickly rebound on Wednesday with highs pushing into the lower 60s in most areas. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Temperatures will moderate late in the week, then a reinforcing cold front sweeps through Friday. A few showers may accompany the front, followed by much colder air. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... The 06z TAF period begins with a mix of conditions ongoing across the area. Some observation sites are bouncing from IFR to MVFR and even VFR. The TAF sites all are starting off MVFR, but the thinking is that they will lower to IFR in the next hour or two. There is fog potential, and possibly dense, though the best chances through sunrise are expected to be inland of the TAF sites. So we will keep ceilings as the main driver of flight categories through sunrise. Guidance suggests that KCHS and KJZI will improve to MVFR for much of the day before lowering back to IFR near the end of the TAF period. At KSAV, IFR is more likely as rain spreads back in at the terminal by the early afternoon. For now, we think the rain will stay just south of KCHS and KJZI. Conditions could be variable throughout the TAF period so amendments will almost certainly be needed as conditions evolve. Extended Aviation Outlook: IFR/MVFR ceilings expected to persist through Monday night, then improving to VFR. && .MARINE... Today through tonight: Winds will start off northeast 5-10 knots this morning then gradually become northerly 10-15 knots through the evening. Then overnight, winds will turn more northwesterly 10-15 knots with gusts potentially approaching 20 knots at times. Seas should average 2-3 feet through the period. A brief period of Small Craft Advisory winds/seas is possible Monday night over the Charleston nearshore waters and GA offshore waters. The next chance for advisories will be Friday night behind a reinforcing cold front. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Astronomical tides will remain elevated Sunday but will be on a declining trend. Coastal Flood Advisories could be needed for the Sunday morning high tide cycle, but the current forecast is for Charleston to fall just shy of the minor coastal flood threshold. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...BSH SHORT TERM...JRL LONG TERM...JRL AVIATION...BSH/JRL MARINE...BSH/JRL ####018003660#### FXUS64 KMRX 070547 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 1247 AM EST Sun Dec 7 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1247 AM EST Sun Dec 7 2025 - Cloudy conditions persist through the morning, with some sunshine breaking in through in the afternoon for some areas. - Next system arrives Sunday night into Monday with very light precipitation. Some snow could occur in mountains and SW VA, but accumulations and impacts should be negligible. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1247 AM EST Sun Dec 7 2025 Fog has developed in parts of the area, and lowered visibilities are expected to expand over the next few hours in southern sections. Northern sections are likely to have more cloud cover based on satellite trends, and should have less fog. With forecast lows in the lower 30s to upper 20s, this could be freezing fog that could cause some slick spots on bridges and overpasses. Through the day, high and midlevel clouds will be increasing ahead of the approaching shortwave trough that will bring rain in the evening. Forcing for this precipitation will be driven mainly by a midlevel shortwave trough, but no strong surface level forcing is depicted by the models. Therefore, any precip should be fairly light over the area. Measurable precip begins the area between 00Z and midnight as the column moistens from the top down. By early Monday morning, cold air advection ramps up and temperatures drop behind the low level trough and a weak surface cold front, allowing for a transition to snow for northern parts of our area. This will be mainly in southwest VA and the eastern TN mountains, but outside the highest elevations, any snow accumulations will be light and not likely to be impactful. For the higher elevations of northeast TN, the NW flow behind this shortwave that persists through Monday could result in a inch or two accumulation through Monday evening, mainly along the peaks of the mountains near the NC border. Amounts should stay under Advisory criteria for populated areas. Generally zonal flow throughout the atmosphere is expected through the middle of the week, with temperatures warming a little (into the 50s for Wednesday) before our next system moves in towards the end of the week. Temperatures appear to be fairly warm on the front end with a big cooldown behind the low and front expected to move through Thursday into Friday. We should see much colder temperatures behind the front for the upcoming weekend, possibly dropping into the teens for the weekend mornings with highs in the 20s and 30s. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1247 AM EST Sun Dec 7 2025 The main aviation impact overnight will be development of patchy fog, which is most likely to occur at CHA. TYS and TRI have chances for fog, but it was left out of the TAF. Fog will be slow to lift into low clouds at CHA before VFR through the day. VFR is also expected to continue at the other sites. Light and variable winds are also expected. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 52 41 48 29 / 10 40 10 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 50 39 43 28 / 10 40 30 0 Oak Ridge, TN 50 38 44 26 / 10 40 20 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 50 35 38 26 / 10 50 60 10 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...DGS AVIATION...BW ####018004871#### FXUS63 KSGF 070547 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 1147 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Below average temperatures, cloudy and patchy drizzle on Sunday. - Increasing confidence in a warming trend toward above normal temperatures early next week. Average highs for this time period range from 45 to 50 degrees. Mostly dry weather accompanies this pattern through at least Wednesday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 245 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 Current Conditions and Synoptic Pattern: Water vapor and upper air analysis continues to show a northwest flow pattern over the area. A shortwave and associated surface low was located across Nebraska. A precip shield associated with this system extended into Iowa and northwest Missouri. Low level clouds have slowly eroded across the area but do remain across southeast Kansas into west central Missouri. Temps have reached the 50s east of Springfield with low 40s in the remaining cloud cover. Tonight: The surface low looks to move southeast into northern Missouri. Southerly winds out ahead of the front look to keep temps above freezing overnight. Increasing lift with the arrival of the front could cause some sprinkles or light rain showers, with the highest chances of this north of Springfield. While increasing winds should keep the fog patchy and greater than one mile, there is some short term guidance that develops fog less than one mile across south central Missouri. Confidence remains low in any dense fog potential overnight. Sunday: The cold front looks to move through the area in the morning. An inspection of HREF forecast soundings shows favorable parameters for drizzle. A lack of cloud ice, saturated low levels and lift associated with upslope flow over the Ozark Plateau should create some patchy drizzle during the day. The freezing line looks to remain along and north of Highway 54 through mid afternoon therefore not expecting any freezing drizzle at this time. We have nudged temps down using short term models with high temps likely occuring in the morning with temps steady or falling through the 30s during the day. By late afternoon the highest potential for drizzle will be east of Springfield however temps still look to be above freezing. There are a few models showing snow showers east of Springfield in the afternoon however there are concerns about the lack of cloud ice. The lift does look to decrease by evening with precip ending around dark. We will continue to monitor trends in the short term guidance since a faster arrival of cold air would increase the potential for freezing drizzle. However currently the potential for freezing drizzle is very low. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 245 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 Monday through Tuesday: Ensembles suggest that while northwest flow aloft continues, winds will gradually turn to the southwest and increase at 850mb which will usher in warmer air. Surface high pressure will slide through Monday with clear skies and highs in the upper 30s to low 40s. Much warmer temps look to occur on Tuesday as mean 850mb temps rise into the 6-10C range. Latest NBM supports highs in the middle to upper 50s. This warmth will also come with increasing surface wind gusts up to 30mph as a pressure gradient develops over the area. Wednesday through Friday: Ensembles then suggest that a strong shortwave will slide north of the region on Wednesday. This should force a dry front into the area with falling temps again however the bulk of the colder airmass should remain north and east of the area. While ensemble variance is high for late week, there is some signal of another shortwave moving southeast into northern Missouri Thursday night into Friday which could clip central Missouri with light precip chances however confidence is low. NBM data shows large temperature spreads for Friday which suggests large uncertainty in the forecast. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1129 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 MVFR/IFR ceilings will persist through the period as a cold front makes its way south through the area. Winds will start out southerly tonight but turn northerly by 12z Sunday. Wind gusts could gust up to 20 knots by Sunday afternoon especially over southwest Missouri. Drizzle/patchy fog may linger behind the front on Sunday morning but will dissipate by the afternoon hours. Visibilities are expected to stay above 1 SM. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Burchfield LONG TERM...Burchfield AVIATION...Soria ####018005866#### FXUS65 KBOU 070548 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 1048 PM MST Sat Dec 6 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Mountain snow tapers off through overnight, but strong winds will sustain some blowing snow at higher elevations/pass levels. - Sunday through Tuesday: Windy, with near-seasonal temperatures. Mostly dry, save for some light mountain snow showers at times. - Another system may bring renewed mountain snowfall Wed-Thu, with a lower but non-zero chance of precipitation for the lower elevations. Strong winds will continue. && .DISCUSSION /Through Saturday/... Issued at 201 PM MST Sat Dec 6 2025 After an eventful first half of the day which featured some impressive 2"/hr snowfall rates in our mountains from a few midday bands, things are steadily calming down on the snowfall front. Upstream water vapor imagery shows modestly drier air that will gradually make its way into the high country. Along with a weakening in both flow aloft and mid-level lapse rates, snow showers will become considerably lighter and more intermittent through the remainder of the day, focusing mainly on our higher mountain slopes. As such, felt comfortable dropping the winter weather headlines for several zones (Park Range, plus North/Middle Parks), where wind speeds will also diminish. For now, will retain the Winter Storm Warnings for our Front Range/Summit County mountains, as wind speeds will take longer to taper off. As of this writing, we're continuing to see gusts consistently hitting 55-80 mph across the higher peaks and passes, so blowing snow impacts are likely to continue regardless of additional snowfall. Across the plains, mid-level moisture has been sufficient to allow for a few bands of mixed wintry precipitation with the trough axis, although these should dissipate as we enter the evening hours. Tonight, a weak backdoor cold front will slide into the plains as surface high pressure gains prominence over the northern CONUS. With that, we could see enough low-level moisture advection and radiational cooling to allow for patchy fog development across portions of our E/NE plains, so have introduced a mention of this into the forecast. This will also give way to marginally cooler temperatures on Sunday. Most areas will remain dry, with ample sunshine for the lower elevations and some continued breezy conditions. Modest westerly flow in the high country and lingering low-level moisture will keep the chance of light snow showers going there, mainly through the morning hours and above 9,000 ft. The picture will be rather unchanged for Monday, with a few light orographic snow showers in the forecast for our mountains and continued breezy conditions near ridgetops. The lower elevations should see some slight warming under a subsident flow regime, breaking into the lower 50's for most areas. We won't be able to escape the topic of wind as we look ahead at the midweek timeframe - in fact, much to the contrary. Reminds me of my husband blowdrying his hair every morning...it seemingly never ends. But I digress... Models are in relative agreement in showing an embedded shortwave developing over the northern plains, driving a healthy NW-SE oriented jet southward into Colorado through the day. Surface pressure gradients look quite impressive, with some of our stronger GJT-DEN Sangster-derived gradients peaking around 16-18 mb. Together with modest but widespread QG subsidence, many of the initial ingredients are there to propel significant winds across our high country, foothills and, potentially, adjacent lower elevations if factors align properly. It's a little too early to discern finer details such as the propensity for any stable or critical layers etc., but have nonetheless raised our forecast winds for the midweek period above NBM guidance. Whilst Tuesday's wind looks to carry more of a Chinook flavor, it appears more Bora-driven for the Wednesday/Thursday period, with ensemble guidance indicating the passage of another shortwave to our north and a more substantial front to go along with it. Confidence is thus a little higher when it comes to gusty winds being more widespread Wednesday and Thursday. To boot, the ECMWF's EFI indicates 80-90th percentile wind gusts Tuesday through Thursday (relative to rolling 5-week climatology), a clear signal for mountain high winds at the very least. There's notable uncertainty in the track of this feature still, which will dictate precipitation potential (particularly for the lower elevations), however all but a small subset of ensemble members would keep our mountains dry. Anywhere from a few inches of localized snowfall to another significant mountain snow event would be on the menu, and only time will tell where on that spectrum we'll end up. With hefty northwest flow aloft and hints at quite robust frontogenesis with this shortwave, it's a pattern that could lend itself to some surprises, even for the urban corridor and plains. Apart from a slight increase to PoPs for the lower elevations for the above reasons, saw no reason to deviate much from current NBM guidance given the ongoing uncertainty. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday/... Issued at 1045 PM MST Sat Dec 6 2025 Models keep winds west-southwesterly at DIA overnight, with no true drainage. By late morning Sunday, northwesterlies are progged. There will be no ceiling issues. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Storm Warning until 11 PM MST this evening for COZ033-034. && $$ DISCUSSION...BRQ AVIATION...RJK/BRQ/RPK/Schlatter ####018005230#### FXUS65 KCYS 070548 AFDCYS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cheyenne WY 1048 PM MST Sat Dec 6 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - A High Wind Warning has been issued for the Arlington and Bordeaux areas into Sunday. - Areas of blowing snow will impact travel conditions in the typical wind prone locations. - After a potential short lull, high winds return Sunday night into Monday for the wind prone areas. - A long duration, high-end, wind event is increasingly likely in the Tuesday through Thursday time period. Areas of snowfall will be possible too, but the details remain uncertain. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 300 PM MST Sat Dec 6 2025 High wind warnings have been allowed to expire or cancelled early as winds have widespread weakened across the region this afternoon. However, a fresh high wind warning has been issued for our usual wind prone locations (Arlington and Bordeaux), but this event looks a bit more marginal than the previous as in house guidance shows probabilities only around 40-50%, but knowing how the region can over perform combined with a favorable Craig to Casper pressure gradient near the surface, our gap locations should at least see a brief 58-60 mph wind gust before the afternoon. Otherwise we had some over performing snow this afternoon as a quick and stout band moved across the region, bringing a brief inch or so of snow into Cheyenne alongside some quick visibility reductions. As for our ongoing winter products, the advisory for Arlington will likely be allowed to expire in a few hours, with another few inches in the mountains this evening before those warnings are allowed to expire as well. Into Sunday, brief ridging should help to bring the quieter conditions to the region aside from some light mountain snow and the aforementioned wind potential, but this just sets the stage for the more complex setup we'll be seeing next week as this ridging fights an arctic airmass that will lead to high winds and some lower elevation snow potential. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 300 PM MST Sat Dec 6 2025 It looks like we are still on track for a prolonged high-end wind event in the long term that starts Monday, continuing into Thursday. However, there remains some uncertainty due to the placement of an amplifying ridge, or not, that builds across the West Coast. The latest deterministic runs paint a similar picture, all have a stout ridge building across the West Coast through Thursday, any variance in placement and strength will be key in this afternoon's forecast package. If said ridge becomes more amplified, pushing north, this will keep the strong upper level northwest flow pouring into our CWA which will help keep the strong winds at the surface. Not only this, but this scenario will maintain milder temperatures and drier conditions. If this ridge at 500mb is less amplified, an arctic front will dive south, promoting cooler temperatures along with a break in the strong winds. With a surge of cooler temperatures with an arctic front, if there is any precipitation that falls will be in the form of snow. So, with this all being said, the forecast is pretty tricky in the extended and for this afternoon's package, minimal changes/edits will be done in the long term to keep continuity. So, with the needle pointing to the amplified scenario, expect highs to top out in the 40s and 50s, cooler west of I-25. So, lets get to the main story in the extended, a prolong high-end wind event from Monday into Wednesday, possibly Thursday. Monday appears windy, but by the nighttime hours, the winds really ramp up. A strong upper level ridge will slide south, tightening the pressure gradient. Ensemble members still have a 65 knot 700mb jet across southeast Wyoming building into Tuesday. With these winds aloft, negative Omega (GFS) will mix them down to the surface and expect gusts to top out in the 70 to 80 mph range, strongest in the typical wind prone areas across southeast Wyoming. Winds slowly wind down through Wednesday and by Thursday they will rapidly diminish in the afternoon hours. Like with anything, things can change and so can model solutions, so stay tune for future updates. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1040 PM MST Sat Dec 6 2025 A backdoor cold front has pushed low CIGs and patchy fog into the Nebraska panhandle, which will lead to periods of LIFR and IFR conditions into Sunday morning. In addition, isolated snow showers still linger over the area, and a quick drop in VIS cannot be ruled out through Sunday morning. Drier conditions will work into the area midday Sunday, but gusty west to northwest winds will continue. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...High Wind Warning from 2 AM to 2 PM MST Sunday for WYZ106-110. Winter Storm Warning until 5 AM MST Sunday for WYZ112-114. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CG LONG TERM...RZ AVIATION...MN ####018003991#### FXUS64 KLZK 070549 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 1149 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 221 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 + Areas of fog are expected to persist this morning across a large potion of the state. + A series of cold fronts will move across the state over the next several days with temperatures flip flopping a bit. + Little if any precipitation if expected over the next seven days. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 221 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 Not many value added changes will be forth coming this morning as the overall forecast looks on track, at least according to the latest guidance. Current GOES-19 imagery continues to show a decent amount of high level moisture moving across the state but also some clearing now getting into far NW Arkansas. An expanding area of low clouds and fog is developing across a good part of the state and while visibilities remain above criteria currently, some guidance continues to indicate parts of the forecast areas may see them drop more by morning. Latest observations indicated patchy fog at many locations and it is expected to persist through early morning. Synoptic scale pattern this morning features broad H5 troughing over the majority of the CONUS. A weak trough embedded in the overall flow will move through this morning scouring out the low level moisture, at least temporarily with some clearing expected. The break in widespread clouds will be temporary as clouds return tonight in advance of an approaching front. The front will have virtually no low level moisture to work with and will pass largely unnoticed on Sunday except for a wind shift back to the NW as the main trough axis passes to our NE. Another dry front will be moving through Wednesday with the upper pattern becoming highly amplified by the end of the week. Pattern will be characterized by pronounced ridging over the SW and deep troughing over the remainder of the CONUS. Another dry boundary will bring a reinforcing shot of cool air to the area next weekend with Canadian high pressure moving in to close out the forecast period. While dry conditions are expected, temperatures will fluctuate up and down with the aforementioned series of boundaries moving through. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1143 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 Low ceilings and reduced visibilities are starting to develop at all central and southern terminals. Conditions will deteriorate to IFR early in the period and remain there through mid morning with the northern terminals remaining VFR. All sites are expected to be MVFR as the period concludes. Winds are expected to be be generally light and from the north in the wake of a weak frontal boundary. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 36 53 31 46 / 0 0 0 0 Camden AR 38 53 34 49 / 10 20 0 0 Harrison AR 36 47 28 46 / 0 0 0 0 Hot Springs AR 37 55 33 49 / 10 0 0 0 Little Rock AR 38 55 36 46 / 0 10 0 0 Monticello AR 41 55 38 49 / 0 30 10 0 Mount Ida AR 39 55 31 51 / 0 0 0 0 Mountain Home AR 36 50 28 45 / 0 0 0 0 Newport AR 37 53 34 44 / 0 0 0 0 Pine Bluff AR 38 54 36 47 / 0 20 10 0 Russellville AR 37 55 32 49 / 0 0 0 0 Searcy AR 34 55 33 46 / 0 0 0 0 Stuttgart AR 37 53 36 46 / 0 10 10 0 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Sunday for ARZ004>008-014>017- 024-025-031>034-039-042>047-052>057-062>069-113-122-123-137-138- 140-141-213-222-223-237-238-240-241-313-340-341. && $$ SHORT TERM...99 LONG TERM....99 AVIATION...56 ####018005623#### FXUS63 KOAX 070549 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1149 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Snow in northeast Nebraska and a light rain/snow max along the I-80 corridor will taper off from west to east this afternoon. Expect a few slick spots, especially on untreated roads and surfaces. - Temperatures will fall sharply tonight, with Sunday morning wind chills in the single digits above and below zero. - A brief warmup arrives early next week: highs climb into the 30s on Monday, then into the 40s and even low 50s on Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 208 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 Tonight and Tomorrow... An upper-level shortwave trough diving south across the High Plains has spun up a surface low now tracking across north-central Nebraska as of early afternoon. Ahead of this system, warm air advection and frontogenesis have produced a north-south oriented shield of precipitation extending from southeast SD/northwest IA southward, gradually decaying as it approaches southeast NE. Precipitation type has been variable, with temperatures ranging from the upper 20s in the far northern CWA to the upper 30s across southeast NE/southwest IA. Southwesterly winds gusts of 20-25 mph has also kept wind chills in the 20s to low 30s. Snow has been the predominant precipitation type across northeast NE, where 1 to 3 inches of accumulation is expected, though most of this has already fallen. This area has seen the most efficient snowfall rates, approaching 1 inch per hour, thanks to strong isentropic lift along the eastern NE/SD border. Farther south, a transition zone has set up roughly along a Columbus- Wahoo-Omaha line, where a light rain/snow mix has been observed. South of this corridor, precipitation has fallen primarily as spotty, light rain. Any accumulating snow in this transition zone will likely peak at a dusting. Precipitation will exit from west to east through the rest of the afternoon and early evening as the surface low tracks southeast into northwest Missouri. A Winter Weather Advisory continue for portions of northeast NE and western IA through the afternoon. As temperatures fall this evening, refreezing of residual moisture may create slick spots, so use caution if traveling or walking on untreated surfaces. Behind the departing low, cooler air will settle in, dropping overnight lows into the teens, with single digits likely across northeast NE and northwest IA. Wind chills will fall into the single digits above and below zero, with values as low as five below across the far northern CWA. Persistent CAA and lingering cloud cover will hold Sunday's highs to the teens and mid-20s. A brief ridge of surface high pressure will move in early Sunday before a mid-level shortwave crossing the northern High Plains pushes a warm front into the region during the mid-day. This may bring a brief round of flurries across northeast Nebraska Sunday afternoon (15-30% PoPs). QPF remains minimal, generally under 0.05", so accumulation and impacts are not expected. Monday and Beyond... An active upper-level pattern will persist through the work week, bringing fluctuating temperatures and a chance for late-week precipitation. The work week will kick off with a chilly Monday morning, as lows dip into the teens and wind chills drop to the single digits. Southerly low- level flow will help Monday's highs rebound into the 30s and low 40s, with a more pronounced warmup Tuesday as temperatures climb into the 40s and even low 50s across east- central NE. This warmer day will also feature breezy northwesterly winds, with gusts of 25-35 mph. A shortwave passing to our northeast will sweep a cold front through the region late Tuesday, knocking highs back into the 30s for both Wednesday and Thursday. Precipitation chances return late Wednesday into Thursday as a mid-level trough advances into the northern Plains and and sends a ribbon of vorticity across the area. Current PoPs peak near 30%, though GEFS and EPS/EPF-AIFS ensemble guidance continues to show a wide spread in placement and intensity of any associated snowfall at this range. One aspect with higher confidence is the cold air that follows. Temperatures will tumble behind the system, with Friday's highs only reaching the teens and 20s. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1149 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 IFR conditions have expanded south to KOMA and KLNK, and cigs have lowered to LIFR at KOFK. Expect reduced conditions to hold overnight with winds out of the north. We'll see cigs start to lift between 13-15Z on Sunday, with winds starting to relax a bit to around 08-10kt. We'll see clouds gradually breaking up through the morning from northeast to southwest, with MVFR cigs more likely holding through the day at KOFK. This will bring VFR conditions to KOMA and KLNK by 16-17Z. Clouds from the west will spread back eastward toward the evening, with some uncertainty in how low they will be when they arrive at KLNK and KOMA around 00Z. Model spread has cigs anywhere from FL050 to FL015, but greater confidence (60%) is in VFR cigs probably around 3500-5000 ft. At the same time, winds will be shifting to southeasterly. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Wood AVIATION...McCoy ####018005452#### FXUS63 KLBF 070549 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 1149 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - An artic cold front moves into the area tonight, leading to quickly falling temperatures. A warm front then lifts into the Sandhills tomorrow afternoon, bringing a threat for snow showers. - Well above average temperatures (highs in the 50s to low 60s) and dry conditions then return for Monday and Tuesday. - Much colder temperatures (highs in 20s to 30s) return by late week, along with some threat for wintry precipitation. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 235 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 Currently, snow has largely ended across north central Nebraska, with dry conditions returning to much of western and central Nebraska. Mostly sunny skies are in place west of HWY 281, with temperatures in the low 40s to low 50s. For tonight, expect an arctic cold front currently positioned across southern South Dakota, to continue to drop southward into the Sandhills. This will lead to quickly falling temperatures tonight with its passage, with lows falling into the low teens for much of northern Nebraska. By late tomorrow morning, a shortwave will cross the Rockies aloft, with an associated weak surface low ejecting into northwest Kansas. As this occurs, a warm front will lift east across the area, shunting the shallow arctic airmass eastwards. This will lead to a wide range in high temperatures tomorrow, with middle 20s near HWY 281 to lower to middle 40s near and west of HWY 61. The approach of this front will also lead to increasing low-level isentropic ascent, and looks to be enough to lead to a fast moving band of light snow from west to east through the afternoon. Little to no accumulation is expected tomorrow, largely tied to the limited duration of snowfall at any given location. Still, brief visibility reductions will be possible and could lead to hazardous travel conditions. Lows again fall into the upper teens to 20s tomorrow night, though warm advection will begin to increase towards sunrise Monday. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 235 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 Northwest flow establishes aloft as we head into early next week, suggesting a return of drier conditions to western and north central Nebraska. At the surface, a duo of clipper systems will move through the upper Midwest, with westerly downslope flow establishing locally behind the passage of the first system. This strengthening warm advection will boost highs into the upper 40s to 50s on Monday. The coolest temperatures can be expected east of HWY 281. The second, and much stronger clipper system dives into the Dakotas by Tuesday afternoon. An associated surface trough pushes into eastern Nebraska, and leads to strong westerly winds across all of western and north central Nebraska. In fact, westerly wind gusts in excess of 40 miles per hour are looking increasingly likely for areas west of HWY 83 on Tuesday afternoon. This strong downslope boosts highs even further, with much of the Sandhills and southwest Nebraska making a run into the 60s. Though humidity does not look to decrease to critical thresholds Tuesday, the combination of mild temperatures and strong west winds could lead to a period of elevated fire weather concerns, especially across western Nebraska. As this clipper system begins to approach the Great Lakes Tuesday night, a cold front will quickly push through the area from northwest to southeast. This looks to provide a glancing blow of colder air Wednesday, with the bulk of cold air remaining across far eastern Nebraska into Iowa. Still, highs will struggle to climb out of the middle 30s east of HWY 183. Further west, highs in the upper 40s to low 50s can be expected in southwest Nebraska. A second reinforcing cold front then pushes through the area on Wednesday night, bringing much colder air to all of western and north central Nebraska. Unfortunately, this cold air then looks to stick around into next weekend, with highs remaining below average in the 20s to 30s. This also may bring a threat of accumulating snow to the area, and trends will need to be monitored. Though amounts remain unclear, a growing signal exists in ensemble guidance for at least light accumulating snow middle to late next week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1136 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 Stratus continues to sag southward across the Sandhills and north central Nebraska including KVTN and KLBF terminals where lower cigs have led to MVFR to LIFR conditions tonight. Lower clouds are expected to stick around until Sunday afternoon with VFR conditions returning by Sunday afternoon. Some patchy fog has developed across the northern Sandhills, including KVTN terminal with lower visibilities. Winds will generally be out of the northwest overnight around 10 to 15 kts with gust up to 20 kts across portions of the southern Sandhills. Winds will become southwesterly by Sunday afternoon around 5 to 10 kts. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Brown LONG TERM...Brown AVIATION...Gomez