####018005514#### FXUS63 KSGF 241639 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 1139 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and some storms return late today into Thursday. - Risk of severe storms occur Friday through Sunday night as multiple rounds of storms move through the region. - Heavy rain and the potential for flooding will accompany the active weather period through this weekend. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 230 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 Synoptic overview and current conditions: Water vapor imagery and upper level analysis show an upper trough axis over the Ohio valley with a ridge axis over the Rockies into the high plains and an upper low circulation in the Pacific off the California coast. Our area was located in between the trough axis and the upper ridge axis with a northwest flow over the region. This has brought a cold front through the area on Tuesday into Tuesday evening with some scattered showers and thunderstorms. There was a light and variable wind behind the front with some boundary level moisture still remaining which was causing some fog and ground fog, especially along with area rivers and lakes which can be seen nicely with the nighttime microphysics GOES channel. Not widespread enough for a dense fog advisory at this time but will continue to mention the potential for fog, especially in our eastern CWA this morning. Today: Surface high pressure will continue to drift off to the east with mainly an easterly flow over the area at the surface. The front will hang up over Arkansas with the main low level moisture axis to our southwest. Any fog should burn off this morning and we should see highs return to the lower to middle 70s with some mid and upper level cloud cover. Precipitation should remain to our south and west through the day. Tonight into Thursday: A low level jet will set up over the plains tonight in advance of a developing area of low pressure in the high plains. Eastern edges of showers with some embedded thunderstorms should make it into our western CWA during the night. Upper level energy will move into the area on Thursday with the moisture axis shifting into the area (PW values 1.2" to 1.5"). Showers and thunderstorms will become more widespread over the area during the day Thursday. The best instability will remain to our west so we are not expecting any severe weather through Thursday. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 230 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 Severe weather, heavy rain and flooding chances Friday through the Weekend: The upper trough should move into the high plains Thursday night into Friday with upper divergence increasing over the area. Very strong low level winds with 850 mb jet of 40-50 kts over the area by Friday morning. Instability will begin to shift eastward into the area on Friday with 1000-1500 j/kg sfc based CAPE values in the western CWA during the day on Friday and 35-60 kts of 0-6km shear. Will start to see our severe weather probabilities increase on Friday. The first upper level low will lift negatively tilted to the northeast into Nebraska by 00z Sat. While the first wave of showers and thunderstorms may end Friday night into Saturday morning, the next wave will begin to lift northeast into the plains late in the day Saturday with additional convection likely developing over the west late Saturday into Saturday night. Sufficient shear and instability will be available as this next wave of convection pushes through Saturday night into Sunday night for another round of severe weather. The main upper level low and surface low will remain north of the area, but a strong cold front will push through the area Sunday into Sunday night. Because of the higher PW values and likely training of storms across the same locations, we will have increased risk of excessive rainfall and flooding across the area this weekend. The main trough axis should push through the area on Monday with mainly dry conditions for Monday and Tuesday. Warmer than normal conditions are expected with an upper ridge axis over the area and the northern stream jet well to the north of the area. Highs should be in the upper 70s to low 80s. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1138 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 East to northeasterly winds will occur across the area this afternoon and evening with winds becoming more southeasterly tonight into Thursday. A few showers will be possible this evening but coverage will be limited. Scattered showers and storms will start to develop across southeastern Kansas and southwestern Missouri late tonight and occur into Thursday afternoon. VFR conditions will occur outside the convection, lower visibilities will be possible within any of the heavier showers and storms late tonight into Thursday morning. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 230 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024 Record High Minimum Temperatures: April 26: KSGF: 66/2016 April 27: KSGF: 67/1899 April 28: KSGF: 68/1896 Record Precipitation: April 28: KSGF: 2.19/1996 && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Lindenberg LONG TERM...Lindenberg AVIATION...Wise CLIMATE...Camden