####018007415#### FXUS62 KRAH 070555 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 1250 AM EST Sun Dec 7 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A front will hold to our southeast through the rest of the weekend, as weak high pressure settles over North Carolina and the Mid Atlantic region. An Arctic cold front will move southeastward through the area on Monday, while an upper level disturbance passes overhead. Chilly high pressure will build in from the north Monday night and Tuesday, then move to our southeast, allowing a southwest flow and milder temperatures to return for Wednesday and Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 946 PM Saturday... We issued a Dense fog Advisory for our southern zones and a Freezing Fog Advisory over the Triad and far northern Piedmont along/north of I-85. The prior discussion follows below. Prior discussion from this afternoon... * Patchy light rain in the far southeast this afternoon, otherwise dry. * Areas of dense fog likely tonight. * Below normal temperatures expected. A frontal system remains stalled off the NC coast, with the associated low pressure well to our northeast. This has left weak high pressure over the region. This should keep the majority of central NC dry, with exception of the far southeast where patchy light rain associated with the frontal boundary looks to be possible over the next several hours. Temperatures this afternoon will stay below normal for this time of year and are generally expected to reach the low to mid 40s. Additionally, in the overnight hours dense fog looks to be probable. The HREF is showing the probability of visibilities less than 0.5 miles between about 50-70% for much of the region, with the higher probabilities focused mostly in the southwest and to a lesser extent the northeast regions of the CWA. Low temperatures overnight look to dip at or below freezing everywhere, with mid/upper 20s in the north. This means that anywhere fog may develop, freezing fog is possible when temperatures are at and below freezing. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 120 PM Saturday... * Continued fog expected into the morning hours. * Temperatures slightly warmer than today, but still below normal. Weak high pressure will continue to pass through the mid-Atlantic through the day on Sunday ahead of an approaching trough and associated cold front. Through the morning hours, areas of potentially dense fog will slowly dissipate with the daytime heating. After fog dissipates, partly cloudy skies are expected throughout the afternoon, with increasing cloudiness overnight as the cold front approaches. Increased low level thicknesses will support slightly warmer temperatures on Sunday. Thus, highs are expected to reach the upper 40s to low 50s, with lows dipping in the upper 20s to mid 30s. While most of the precipitation with the front looks to hold off until after daybreak on Monday, there is a possibility of some very light rain reaching western portions of the region late Sunday night. Temperature profiles do not look conducive of any wintry precipitation before sunrise on Monday at this time. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 130 PM Saturday... -Chilly, below average temperatures expected Mon-Tues. -Light wintry mix possible Monday mainly across northern Piedmont. -Another chance for precip late Thursday into Friday. A cold front will move across the region on Monday, with cold air chasing the departing precipitation through the day. Morning temperatures will start near freezing along the VA border and in the mid to upper 30s elsewhere. Rain will be the primary precipitation type, but temperatures will gradually fall through the afternoon as colder air arrives. This may allow for a rain/snow mix across portions of the northern Piedmont—generally from Rocky Mount to Raleigh to Lexington. Before precipitation tapers off early Monday evening, a brief changeover to light snow is possible near the VA border. Any accumulations would be minor and mainly limited to elevated surfaces given warm ground temperatures. All precipitation will exit the region by Monday evening. By Tuesday morning, surface high pressure will settle over the Mid- Atlantic. A surge of overnight cold air will allow temperatures to drop into the upper teens to low 20s. With light to calm winds, any leftover moisture on roads may freeze, creating the potential for black ice during the Tuesday morning commute. High pressure will dominate Tuesday and Wednesday, supporting dry weather. Highs both days will range from the low to mid-40s. Lows will fall into the 20s Tuesday morning and into the mid to upper 30s Wednesday morning. Late in the week, another shortwave will move across the northern US, bringing increasing precipitation chances. While guidance shows some spread in the timing, track, and moisture availability, the general consensus suggests precipitation could return by late Thursday afternoon—mainly across the NW Piedmont—before a front sweeps through the region on Friday. Conditions should dry out again by Saturday morning. Behind the front, highs on Saturday will be cool, in the upper 30s to low 40s, with another round of lows in the upper teens to low 20s Saturday morning. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 1250 AM Sunday... * Dense fog this morning, followed by slowly improving aviation conditions today, and then another period of sub-VFR tonight. With no airmass change in the past couple of days, and none expected until Monday, dense fog has set in quickly across nearly all of central NC and will persist perhaps as late as 15Z this morning. With temps solidly below freezing across the Piedmont, many areas are susceptible to some freezing fog. Once the fog begins to lift, conditions should again be slow to improve today, with some guidance suggesting some sub-VFR ceilings at least temporarily lingering in the afternoon. Based on persistence forecasts, will lean toward the slow improvement today and indicate VFR potential after 18Z. Light and variable or southerly winds will prevail. Once again with the same moist airmass in place tonight, fog is a possibility, although high clouds streaming in from the SW ahead of an approaching upper disturbance may inhibit widespread dense fog. Outlook: A strong upper disturbance crossing the region on Monday will bring a mix of rain and snow, changing to snow in some northern areas before ending Monday evening. Chances of light snow are higher from INT/GSO to RDU and RWI. VFR conditions will then persist through much of early to middle of next week. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freezing Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST Sunday for NCZ007>011- 021>028-041. Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST Sunday for NCZ038>040-042- 043-073>078. Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EST Sunday for NCZ083>086-088- 089. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hartfield NEAR TERM...AK/Helock SHORT TERM...Helock LONG TERM...CA AVIATION...BLS ####018005797#### FXUS62 KCAE 070556 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 1256 AM EST Sun Dec 7 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Areas of dense fog will likely persist into this morning hours, potentially dense at times. Otherwise, mostly dry conditions are expected today. The next round of rain moves in Sunday night and through Monday. Dry conditions are then anticipated for the mid-week period while temperatures remain below normal. The next chance of rain arrives Thursday night into Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Key message(s): - Widespread fog with at least patchy dense fog this morning. - Continued cool but generally dry today Water vapor imagery shows the initial shortwave that brought rain to the region Saturday has shifted to our east with generally zonal flow aloft and drier air has moved in at mid levels. PWATs have fallen significantly across the region with values less than a half inch across the forecast area. The combination earlier rainfall and clearing skies and mid level dry air with light to calm winds has resulted in widespread fog with many location reporting dense fog and a dense fog advisory is in effect until 9am. An upper trough digging into the upper Midwest and Plains states will continue to move into the Ohio Valley by this evening. Generally expecting a dry forecast today with the moisture axis remaining to our south with plenty of cloud cover due to stratus clouds and some increasing mid-high clouds. Temperatures will continue to be below normal today with highs ranging from the upper 40s to lower 50s, although if more sunshine is observed temps could be a touch warmer. As the upper trough moves into the region late Sunday night, moisture will increase across the forecast area and isentropic lift will also increase leading to chances of rain across after 06z spreading over the area. PWATs still remain below an inch so moisture will still be somewhat limited and should keep rainfall totals light. Low temperatures tonight expected to drop into the upper 30s. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Key message(s): - Chance of rain on Monday, especially in the morning. - Drier and Continued Cool on Tuesday. Monday and Monday Night: A shortwave will be passing through the FA at the start of the day, with a second upper disturbance passing mainly to the north in the evening. While temperatures at daybreak will be in the mid-30s across the northern FA, frozen precipitation does not appear likely and this should be a rain event for the entire CWA. The highest rain chances will be during the morning hours with the first upper disturbance, followed by a low end (less than 20 percent) chance for a passing shower or two in the evening across the northern Midlands as the second feature shortwave passes through. The clouds and rain will once again limit warming during the day with forecast highs ranging from the mid-40s to lower 50s. A drier air mass filters in at night allowing temperatures to drop quickly towards daybreak with widespread subfreezing temperatures expected, especially across the northern Midlands where lower 20s are forecast. Tuesday and Tuesday Night: High pressure will be overhead during the morning hours promoting cold and dry weather under mainly sunny skies. Despite the sunshine, temperatures will struggle to warm much courtesy of strong CAA with forecast highs in the mid to upper 40s. Winds shift to the southwest as the anticyclone sinks south towards Florida so while another night of subfreezing temperatures is expected, values will be warmer than the previous night for most with forecast lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Key message(s): - Dry and warmer Wednesday and Thursday. - The next cold front moves through on Friday. An upper trough will dominate the weather across the Central and Eastern CONUS during the mid to late week period. At the surface, high pressure to the south will keep the FA dry on Wednesday and Thursday and persistent southwesterly flow should allow temperatures to moderate, albeit still below seasonal values. A cold front is expected to approach Thursday night bringing a chance of rain that will linger into at least the first half of Friday. Another cold, dry air mass follows the frontal passage for next weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Widespread fog with LIFR restrictions expected through mid morning. Widespread fog, dense in many locations already in place to start the forecast and do not see much reason it will not continue with favorable conditions to support it through sunrise. Some clearing near AGS/DNL/OGB may allow temporary improved conditions through 08z but expect all terminals to have LIFR conditions through sunrise in fog/stratus. Improvement should begin to occur between 14z-16z with a return to MVFR cigs by 18z all terminals. Winds will generally be light and variable with a prevailing easterly direction after 15z. Some improvement to VFR possible after 21z but confidence is low. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Lingering low level moisture may result in restrictions into Monday with drier air expected Tuesday through the end of the period. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for SCZ016-018- 020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-135>137. GA...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for GAZ040- 063>065-077. && $$ ####018004660#### FXUS64 KHGX 070556 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1156 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... - Patchy, but dense, fog will be possible across much of the area tonight into Sunday morning. - Cold front moves through the area Sunday ushering in chillier weather to start the work week. - Hazardous marine conditions with winds of 20-25 kt with gusts to 30-35 kt possible Sunday afternoon into Monday morning. - Monitoring the potential for another cold front towards the end of the work week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1044 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 Moist onshore flow has led to the development of patchy, dense fog across much of the area. A Dense Fog Advisory is out through 7am for most areas along and south of I-10, and then along and east of I-45. As the night unfolds, the Brazos Valley may get included in the Advisory. Conditions will improve through the morning, but the Advisory may get extended along the coast into the mid-morning hours. A dry cold front will push through the coastal waters late Sunday afternoon ushering in cooler, drier conditions. Ahead of the front, we will likely rise into the low to mid 70s across much of the area, but we will be cooling down Sunday night down into the upper 30s to mid 40s. And add in a breezy north wind, conditions will feel even chillier. This chilly weather will continue into the work week with highs in the mid 50s to low 60s on Monday and overnight lows into the mid 30s to low 40s Monday night (with some areas in the Piney Woods dropping to near freezing). A gradual warm-up is expected through midweek as winds become southerly with highs in the mid to upper 60s on Tuesday, low to mid 70s on Wednesday, and then some low 80s possible returning by Thursday. Our next cold front may arrive late Thursday into Friday, but at this point it is also looking like a dry front like Sunday's. Fowler && .AVIATION... (00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 455 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 Light VRB winds expected through Sun morning. Cigs are expected to lower to IFR-MVFR tonight for much of SE Texas, with some sites possibly lowering to LIFR at times. Areas of patchy to dense fog is expected to develop tonight into Sun morning and will lead to visibilities of less than 1 mile during the overnight and early morning hours for several locations, to include IAH/HOU. Conditions will gradually improve after 14Z with most of the fog burning off shortly after that hour. Cigs will also lift gradually around that hour and are expected to scatter out by the afternoon hours as drier air moves in after the passage of a dry cold front. NW winds at 10-15kt will develop Sun afternoon/evening in the wake of the front and gusts could reach 20-25kt at times. Brief moments of llvl wind shear is also possible. Cotto && .MARINE... Issued at 1044 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 Dense fog will continue to be possible through the morning hours in the Bays and nearshore waters with some patchy fog possibly lingering into the mid-morning or late morning hours. Light onshore winds will prevail through the early afternoon, but a cold front will usher in strong northerly winds (sustained 20-25 kt with gusts to 30-35 kt) starting in the late afternoon through Monday morning. These winds will cause rough bay waters and seas to climb to 4-6ft in the nearshore waters and to 5-9ft in the offshore waters. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for all waters beginning at 4pm Sunday through Noon Monday. Light northeasterly winds are expected to develop Monday night with light onshore winds developing Tuesday that continue through midweek. These onshore winds will lead to an increase in moisture, so the return of fog is possible by midweek. Fowler && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 53 68 38 58 / 10 10 0 0 Houston (IAH) 56 74 43 60 / 10 10 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 61 72 49 59 / 10 20 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 7 AM CST Sunday for TXZ163-164-177>179- 199-200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-436>439. GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 7 AM CST Sunday for GMZ330-335-350-355. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Sunday to noon CST Monday for GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375. && $$ DISCUSSION...Batiste AVIATION...Cotto MARINE...Batiste ####018008513#### FXUS66 KMTR 070556 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 956 PM PST Sat Dec 6 2025 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1200 PM PST Sat Dec 6 2025 - Benign conditions through the next seven days with no precipitation expected and a gradual warming trend - Impacts from Tule Fog continue in the North Bay and interior East Bay valleys, with potential for expansion across the rest of the Bay Area tonight - Next chance for rain towards the middle of the month && .UPDATE... Issued at 942 PM PST Sat Dec 6 2025 All the retreating that the fog and low clouds have done in the afternoon has already been undone, but the expansion has slowed. The Tule fog continues to build in the North Bay and East Bay with some fog and low clouds building around the SF Bay and looks to reach San Jose later into the night. && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1200 PM PST Sat Dec 6 2025 (This evening through Sunday) The current satellite image shows dissipating stratus across the Santa Clara Valley and the San Francisco Bay Shoreline, while the City and the valleys of the North Bay and interior East Bay remain socked in the spillover from the Tule Fog across the Central Valley. Towards the western parts of Sonoma and Marin counties, the Tule Fog spillover merges with marine layer stratus. The trend of the last couple of days has been the models struggling to accurately reflect the evolution of the Tule Fog in the North and East bay valleys. Model output shows the stratus deck beginning to dissipate over the North Bay valleys now, but that does not appear to be happening. I have tamped down the highs for today and tomorrow across the Bay Area in response to the model's struggles. The current forecast has today's highs in the upper 50s across the Bay Area valleys, with central and eastern Contra Costa County and far eastern Alameda County seeing highs in the lower to middle 50s. This does assume that the stratus does eventually mix out this afternoon, and if the stratus lingers through the day, the North and East bay valleys might not get out of the 40s. Tomorrow's forecast currently has the highs warming by a couple of degrees, within a couple degrees of 60 for most of the area, but this is highly dependent on how the Tule Fog evolves tonight into Sunday morning, and could also need to be dropped if the stratus sticks around long enough tomorrow. Meanwhile, over in the Central Coast the skies are clear, have remained generally clear this morning, and will remain clear during the afternoon and evening hours. Model output is showing some possibility for stratus to develop in the Monterey Bay region and northern Salinas Valley tonight. While is some reason to second- guess the model output, for the reasons stated above, those reasons lean towards more stratus being present than the current forecast. However, any influence from the Tule Fog will be limited to the far eastern reaches of San Benito and southern Monterey Counties, where the Gabilan Range abuts the Central Valley. Highs in the Central Coast reach the middle to upper 60s in the inland valleys, to the lower to middle 60s closer to Monterey Bay, perhaps into the lower 70s in some of the sheltered valleys within the Santa Lucia and Gabilan ranges.All the retreating that the fog and low clouds have done in the afternoon has already been undone, but the expansion has slowed. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1200 PM PST Sat Dec 6 2025 (Sunday night through next Friday) Ridging will dominate the weather patterns through the rest of the 7- day outlook, enabling a gradual warming trend across the region. The highs will peak around the later part of the upcoming work week with highs in the inland valleys reaching the middle 60s to middle 70s, around 8 to 13 degrees above the seasonal average. As with the short term forecast, the biggest source of uncertainty will be how the Tule Fog develops every night and morning, impacting the temperatures across the North and East Bay valleys. The deterministic forecast has the East Bay interior valleys remaining in the lower to middle 60s, but depending on how the Tule Fog evolves the temperatures could easily vary by around 10 degrees on either side of the current forecast. A couple of storm systems will approach the West Coast during the 7- day outlook, but the ridging pattern will deflect the brunt of the storms to the Pacific Northwest and leave us with a chance of drizzle in the coastal waters while land areas remain dry. Longer range model guidance suggests a possible change in the weather pattern towards the middle of the month. Ensemble model cluster analysis continues to show some of the model members (somewhere around 30-40% of the ensemble members) depicting a breakdown of the ridge. however, most of the ensemble members and the ensemble means point to the ridge persisting over the western United States, or flattening out into a zonal flow pattern. Uncertainty remains rather high in this part of the forecast and we will keep an eye on what the trend from later model runs turns out to be. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 942 PM PST Sat Dec 6 2025 Low clouds and fog are well established in the North Bay and interior East Bay. Expect cloud cover in these areas to lower further into the night and the fog to become thicker. SFO is already seeing lower clouds fill with OAK and SJC seeing CIGs arrive overnight with some slight reductions in visibilities. Winds stay mostly light to moderate through the morning, with wind directions determined by more localized affects. Cloud cover and fog will be slow to erode into Sunday, but conditions look to improve into the afternoon. However, the North and East Bay will continue to struggle with low clouds and fog, causing some doubt for clearing at STS and LVK, while APC doesn't look to clear for Sunday afternoon. While over sites see less chances for low clouds and fog into that afternoon, pockets of haze will affect much of the region. Low clouds return to the North Bay and SF Bay into Sunday night as winds weaken. Vicinity of SFO...MVFR turns to IFR into the late night. Moderate northerly winds are becoming lighter and more variable and will be weak into early Sunday morning as IFR CIGs fill over the terminal. CIGs scatter in the mid morning, and moderate northwest winds arrive that afternoon. Winds reduce again into late Sunday night with IFR CIGs returning. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR through the TAF period. Winds stay light for MRY through the TAF period, while SNS sees moderate northwest winds become light into the early night. Expect winds to turn southeast overnight. Northwest winds return Sunday afternoon with the potential for haze along the coast. Expect winds to become light and variable again into Sunday night. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Friday) Issued at 942 PM PST Sat Dec 6 2025 Winds are reducing across the waters, but breezy northwest winds linger into the middle of next work week with the strongest winds focused on the southern waters. Moderate seas with wave heights 6 to 8 feet across the outer waters this weekend. A new, long period northwesterly swell is anticipated by Wednesday of next week. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 PM PST Sunday for CAZ006-506-508- 529-530. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 9 PM PST Sunday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Sunday to 3 AM PST Monday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Sunday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM. Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 9 PM PST Sunday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...DialH LONG TERM....DialH AVIATION...Murdock MARINE...Murdock Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea ####018004494#### FXUS62 KTBW 070557 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 1257 AM EST Sun Dec 7 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - Areas of dense fog expected early Sunday morning across southwest Florida. - Rain chances increase later today and tonight. - Cooler and drier conditions return early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1224 AM EST Sun Dec 7 2025 A frontal boundary extends across the central Florida peninsula just north of the Sarasota area and has been sinking very slowly south. It should become stationary just south of the Sarasota area in the next couple of hours with boundary layer winds north of the boundary out of the northeast, and to the south of the boundary out of the south. This will be the demarcation between areas of fog developing south of the front by sunrise which will be locally dense, and low clouds/patchy fog north of the boundary. A dense fog advisory may be needed for areas south of the frontal boundary later tonight. The fog/low clouds will lift by mid morning today, however mostly cloudy skies will persist through the afternoon...although skies may become partly cloudy across southwest Florida for several hours before the clouds spread over that region. The frontal boundary across the central peninsula will dissipate today with winds shifting to the south and southeast across the region as a much stronger cold front currently over the southeast U.S. begins to push down across north Florida with an increasing chance of showers and possibly a few thunderstorms mainly across the nature coast. The cold front will push south across the Florida peninsula Sunday night and early Monday. Numerous to widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms will spread across the forecast area ahead of the front. High pressure will build over the Florida peninsula in the wake of the front Monday and Monday night with clearing skies and cooler drier air advecting across the region. The area of high pressure will hold over west central and southwest Florida through mid week with temperatures running near climatic normals with highs in the mid to upper 60s north to the mid 70s south...and lows in the 40s north, lower to mid 50s central, and upper 50s to around 60 south. A gradual warming trend will develop late in the week ahead of the next cold front which is expected to move across the area Friday and Friday night. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1224 AM EST Sun Dec 7 2025 Areas of IFR CIGs are impacting TPA/PIE/LAL...and will likely move over SRQ in the next couple of hours. Patchy fog has begun to develop over southwest Florida with LCL MVFR/IFR VSBYs...and visibilities will likely be on the decline through the early morning hours along with IFR CIGs developing with LCL LIFR CIGs/VSBYs, with the highest likelihood impacting PGD. The fog/low ceilings are expected to lift at all terminals by mid morning...with LCL MVFR CIGs persisting potentially into the early afternoon hours at TPA/PIE/LAL before becoming VFR CIGs. && .MARINE... Issued at 1224 AM EST Sun Dec 7 2025 A cold front will push across the waters late today and tonight with showers and isolated thunderstorms spreading over the region from north to south. Winds will shift to the north/northwest in the wake of the front Monday and Monday night and will increase to cautionary levels. Winds/seas will subside Tuesday and Tuesday night. High pressure will hold over the waters through mid week with no headlines expected. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1224 AM EST Sun Dec 7 2025 No fire weather hazards are expected as sufficient moisture will keep minimum afternoon relative humidity values well above critical levels today and into early next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 80 68 77 55 / 60 80 30 0 FMY 84 70 80 58 / 20 50 50 0 GIF 83 67 77 54 / 50 80 40 0 SRQ 81 67 77 54 / 50 80 50 0 BKV 80 60 75 46 / 60 90 30 0 SPG 78 69 75 57 / 60 80 40 0 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Oglesby DECISION SUPPORT...Oglesby UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Oglesby ####018005380#### FXUS64 KLIX 070559 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1159 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1143 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 - Another shot of colder air will follow the passage of a strong cold front Sunday night. The coldest air won't arrive until Monday with the coldest night being Monday night/Tuesday morning. - About an 18 hour period of hazardous marine conditions behind the cold front late Sunday night through Monday afternoon before conditions improve. - Temperatures warming to well above normal for Wednesday and Thursday before much colder weather arrives next weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Monday night) Issued at 1143 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 A broad upper trough covered much of the eastern two thirds of the country this evening, with ridging along the Pacific Coast. Quasi- zonal flow was noted along the northern Gulf Coast ahead of a shortwave near the Texas Big Bend area. At the surface, high pressure extended from Kentucky to Georgia. Frontal boundaries were well to the south over the central Gulf, and well to the north near Interstate 70. Patchy light rain was noted over the lower portions of the Louisiana coastal parishes. Low clouds were covering much of the area with temperatures mainly in the lower and middle 50s with light easterly winds. The southern stream shortwave over the Big Bend area will shift eastward and be moving off the Georgia coast Sunday evening. A strong northern stream shortwave will dig into the base of the trough over the Appalachians by Monday. Low pressure associated with the southern stream shortwave may briefly turn winds southeasterly during the day Sunday, allowing temperatures to warm to near 70 Sunday afternoon. As the shortwave and low pass east of the area Sunday night, winds will shift to the north and much cooler and drier air will arrive late Sunday night and Monday. Scattered showers and perhaps a few storms could accompany the front. Likely to see some sunshine by Monday afternoon, but gusty northerly winds will make it feel cooler than it looks. Temperatures aren't likely to move much prior to sunrise Sunday. Temperature solutions for the most part are pretty close to the ECMWF guidance through Monday. Won't entirely rule out a freeze across northern areas early Tuesday morning, but not specifically forecasting it at this point. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Saturday night) Issued at 1143 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 With the longwave trough axis to our east for the middle of the week, the upper flow will be northwesterly, which should keep the area dry through at least Thursday. If there is going to be any precipitation during this portion of the forecast, it will probably be Thursday night and/or Friday morning as a northern stream shortwave passes well to the northeast of the area, dragging a cold front across us. Tuesday will be chilly until the surface high axis passes to the east of the area. Wednesday and Thursday will be the warm days for the week, approaching 70 Wednesday and well into the 70s on Thursday. Colder air will arrive again on Friday, with high temperatures Saturday and Sunday of next weekend likely not getting out of the 50s, if that warm, with a freeze possible late Saturday night. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1143 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 IFR or lower conditions in place at most terminals, primarily ceilings. Little improvement expected overnight and could deteriorate some more to near field minima. May be just enough wind to hold off extremely low visibilities. Could see some improvement in ceilings by mid to late morning, but probably will not get above FL010 or FL015. SHRA or RA will return just ahead of cold front, which will move through most or all terminals between 00z Monday and 06z Monday. Winds will turn northerly and gusts above 20 knots beyond 06z, which will impact KMSY during the last 6 hours of its forecast period. && .MARINE... Issued at 1143 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 Likely to need Small Craft Advisories across most or all waters from 06z Monday to 06z Tuesday due to cold air advection behind the cold front. Conditions should improve during the day Tuesday, with no further wind related issues until perhaps Friday afternoon behind the next cold front. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 65 45 54 33 / 50 60 10 0 BTR 70 47 57 35 / 60 60 10 0 ASD 68 47 59 34 / 40 70 10 0 MSY 70 53 60 43 / 50 60 10 0 GPT 67 49 60 37 / 40 70 10 0 PQL 68 47 60 34 / 30 70 10 0 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from midnight Sunday night to 6 PM CST Monday for GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572- 575-577. MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from midnight Sunday night to 6 PM CST Monday for GMZ532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575- 577. && $$ SHORT TERM...RW LONG TERM....RW AVIATION...RW MARINE...RW ####018006710#### FXUS61 KGYX 070600 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 100 AM EST Sun Dec 7 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will quickly pass over the region by this evening and overnight. This will bring widespread light snow accumulations to much of the forecast area before departing Monday. An active weather pattern will feature a few more chances of precipitation heading into the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... A fair day through mid to late afternoon. Dry conditions until then bring temps a little closer to seasonal norms in the upper 20s and mid 30s. A fast moving low pressure system approaches from the west later this afternoon and is expected to spread light snow from west to east across central and northern NH by early evening. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Weak low pressure is expected to move quickly across the forecast area tonight, likely across central/southern NH then off the Maine coast near PWM by 06z. Enough moisture and forcing for ascent in association with the system should be sufficient for a band of light snow to spread across the forecast area during the evening, especially north of the low track. Unless the low track changes, the highest accums should fall along the corridor of best mid level ascent which should be across the northern half of NH eastward into central ME. It is there where a stripe of 1-3" of snow falls with a few areas in the mountains possibly seeing as much as 4". Elsewhere, amounts should be 2" or less. Portions of southern NH into York County ME may not see much at all, most likely less than an inch. There have been some signals in the guidance over the last couple of days that this system may deepen fast enough so that it throws back a band of enhanced snowfall to the coast. Some CAMs still show this potential, so we'll have to watch for some higher snowfall rates and amounts on the Midcoast Sunday evening. Some slippery spots are likely for the Monday morning commute even though the bulk of the snow should have ended by then. The system quickly departs Monday leaving us with cold and breezy weather, but dry. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Overview: The 500 mb pattern across the CONUS will feature a persistent ridge over the West Coast and a low amplitude long wave trough over the eastern US. A series of embedded waves will bring chances for light precipitation starting Tuesday night through the end of the week. The second in the series looks to bring the best chance for widespread precipitation late Wednesday into Thursday morning. The ridge trough pattern shows signs of amplifying late next week through the weekend with temperatures dropping well below normal. Impacts: *Light snow will bring potential for slick roads Tuesday night and again late Wednesday into Thursday morning. Details: The long term period will start off cold with low temperatures Tuesday morning ranging from the single digits below zero north to single digits above zero near the coast. High pressure shifts south Tuesday while still providing mostly fair weather with highs Tuesday ranging from the teens north to upper 20s along the coast. The first in a series of short waves will bring chances for light snow Tuesday night that ends before the Wednesday morning commute. Moisture will be limited with snowfall generally a coating to 2 inches. The next short wave will be quick to approach Wednesday with a surface low tracking west to east across northern New England. Subtle shifts in the track of this low will change how much above freezing air is able to work into the southern half of the forecast area while the mountain and north likely stay cold enough for all snow. The latest NBM has precipitation starting as snow before the rain/snow line pushes inland to the foothills Wednesday afternoon with the rain/snow line collapsing back to the coast Wednesday night. Overall QPF will be light on the order of 0.1 to 0.25 inches which could amount to a few inches of snow in the mountains and generally less than an inch south of the foothills due to changing to rain. The trough over the eastern US will deepen late in the week while there is limited signal for additional widespread precipitation events. As the trough deepens colder air will gradually work into the region with below normal temperatures likely next weekend. && .AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Short Term...Patchy Shallow ground fog may develop in spots very early this morning but should be dissipated by a cold front moving through prior to dawn. Other than some fog, expect ceilings to be VFR this morning into the afternoon hours today. MVFR/IFR ceilings then invade with quick moving low pressure this evening. This will also bring -SN to reduce vis to 1 to 2 miles overnight. Improvement is expected at or shortly after 10z Mon for much of the forecast area north of PSM/CON/LEB line. Long Term...Mainly VFR Monday night through Tuesday. Light snow Tuesday night will bring at least the chances for MVFR with some improvement Wednesday morning. Another system crosses late Wednesday bringing light snow with snow changing to rain south of a line from KLEB to KAUG Wednesday afternoon. This will likely bring another period of at least MVFR Wednesday into Thursday morning. && .MARINE... Short Term...Winds and seas remain below SCA criteria today into tonight. Quick moving low pres enters the Gulf of Maine early Monday morning, increasing winds to around 30 kts. Some gusts to gale may be attainable on the outer waters Monday morning, and a gale watch has been issued here. Have issued a small craft advisory for Casco and western Penobscot Bay along with the outer waters south of Portland. Long Term...NW winds will be on a downward trend Monday night into Tuesday. A series of week systems cross northern New England Tuesday night into Thursday with winds likely bringing an extended period of SCA conditions. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...Gale Watch from Monday morning through Monday afternoon for ANZ150-152. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 11 PM EST Monday for ANZ151- 153. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Monday to 1 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ154. && $$ NEAR TERM...Tubbs/Ekster SHORT TERM...Cornwell/Ekster LONG TERM...Schroeter ####018005993#### FXUS62 KMLB 070600 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 100 AM EST Sun Dec 7 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 250 PM EST Sat Dec 6 2025 - A cold front will stall across central Florida tonight and Sunday then press south of the area Monday. Coverage of showers and isolated storms will increase with periods of moderate to heavy rain. - Hazardous boating conditions will develop behind the front Monday into Tuesday especially in the Gulf Stream. - Turning noticeably cooler next week but no frost/freeze concerns at this time. A stronger cold front may swing through next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 250 PM EST Sat Dec 6 2025 Thru tonight...A cold front is sagging southward across Lake and Volusia counties this afternoon bringing scattered showers and a northerly wind shift. This front will stall across central FL overnight. Isolated to scattered showers will continue to track eastward extending down into Osceola and Brevard counties this evening. Then this shallow convection should diminish by midnight. Have drawn patchy fog across all the area late tonight and early Sun with the better chance again being across southern sections. Sun-Mon...Weak low pressure develops over the northern Gulf Sun and rides east along the frontal boundary across FL peninsula Sun night. This low organizes further east of FL and swings the front cleanly through the area Monday. Coverage of showers and isolated storms is forecast to increase Sun afternoon across northern sections, spreading southward to the Treasure Coast and Okeechobee late Sunday into the overnight. Activity then clears from north to south Monday into Monday afternoon behind the front. Overall, surface instability looks to remain limited through the period. Confidence in lightning remains low, although the best chances look to be across the south late Sunday afternoon where less cloud cover should allow for better surface heating. Several rounds of rain, heavy at times are possible, esp across northern sections near the stalled front. Rainfall averages of 1-2" possible through Monday from Orlando/Cape northward, with localized higher totals up to 4" cannot be ruled out. On Sun, max temps will range from the low to mid 70s across Volusia county to the mid 80s Okeechobee/Treasure coast. Noticeably cooler for most on Monday behind the front with most areas in the low to mid 70s (upper 70s Martin). Tue-Sat...High pressure builds across the southeast and into central Florida Tuesday, and conditions remain mostly dry through at least Thu. The next cold front is forecast to reach the area Fri-Sat timeframe and sufficient moisture return may produce isolated to scattered showers on one of those days, depending on frontal timing. Highs hold near seasonal into mid week, mostly in the low to mid 70s. Temperatures warm into the mid to upper 70s Friday ahead of that next front, then a more significant cool down is possible next weekend. Lows mostly in the upper 40s and 50s each night. && .MARINE... Issued at 250 PM EST Sat Dec 6 2025 A weak cold front sagging south across the northern waters this afternoon will become nearly stationary across central FL and the adjacent Atlantic tonight and Sunday. The front is forecast to surge south of the waters Monday as north winds increase which will bring deteriorating boating conditions. Rain and storm chances increase Sun and Sun night. North winds behind the front this evening 15-20 knots require a Caution headline for nearshore Volusia. Winds decrease and veer NE overnight. Winds become more variable Sunday in proximity to the front though a more uniform S/SW flow is forecast as the front may temporarily lift back to the north. Winds increase out of the NW-N around 20 kts behind the front on Monday then veer NE Tue and decrease. A light offshore flow is forecast Wed-Thu. Seas 4-5 FT Volusia waters tonight subsiding to 3 FT Sunday. Seas become poor to hazardous Monday into Tue esp over the Gulf Stream, building 6-8 ft with 4-6 FT nearshore. Seas slowly subside Tue night-Wed falling below 5 FT offshore Thu. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 1249 AM EST Sun Dec 7 2025 MVFR/IFR CIGs continue across east central Florida overnight, though SH near LEE and DAB appear to have actually helped improve CIGs there. Regardless, similar conditions are forecast to continue through at least 14Z across the area. -SHRA also extends north and west of a line from ISM to near TIX. These showers look to persist through sunrise, before the stalled front lifts northward this morning, taking the SH with it. The front is then expected to push southward again this afternoon and into the overnight hours, with embedded SH and TS. VCTS begins near LEE/DAB, then spreads southward through 1Z. Have included prevailing -TSRA for the boundary itself, but overall TS chances are low. In fact, have only a SHRA mention for the Treasure Coast, due to the front moving into that area after 0Z and weakening. MVFR/IFR CIGs are once again forecast behind the front, with VCSH lingering into the overnight hours. Southerly winds today veering northerly into this evening at around 10-12 kts or less. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 75 61 71 53 / 70 80 20 0 MCO 81 66 74 55 / 60 70 40 0 MLB 82 64 75 59 / 40 60 50 0 VRB 83 64 77 60 / 40 60 60 0 LEE 76 62 72 49 / 60 80 30 0 SFB 78 64 73 53 / 60 80 30 0 ORL 79 65 73 54 / 60 70 40 0 FPR 84 65 78 60 / 30 50 60 10 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Kelly AVIATION...Leahy ####018004196#### FXUS63 KGID 070600 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 1200 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - There could be scattered snow showers (20-30% chance) Sunday afternoon mainly across south central Nebraska with better chances north of I-80. This would mainly be trace amounts of snow if anything. - Colder on Sunday with highs in the 20s (northeast) to mid 30s (southwest). Just a 1 day cold snap. - Above normal temperatures return Monday and Tuesday with highs mainly in the upper 40s to mid 50s Monday, mid 50s to lower 60s Tuesday. - A series of clipper systems will swing through beginning Tuesday night bringing progressively colder air back into our region. There could be some light snow Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night, but currently not looking like it will amount to much. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 218 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 Tonight... A surface area of low pressure will slide off to our southeast and colder air will filter back into our region with briefly gusty northerly winds this evening behind the low. Any precipitation with this clipper system will be well to our northeast across far northeastern Nebraska this evening. We expect dry weather across our forecast area. Sunday... This will be a one day cold snap behind tonight's clipper system with the coldest air across our northeast and especially east of our area. Our southwestern areas will only get a glancing shot of this cold air. Northeastern Nebraska will likely only see highs in the teens while our northeastern zones should reach into the 20s, and our southwestern areas could make the mid 30s. There is a chance for light snow Sunday afternoon with warm air advection as 850 mb temperatures start to climb from west to east. Will see at least increasing clouds and forecast models vary on snow chances, but the predominate model solution seems to be trace amounts of light snow showers across our northern counties, mainly north of I-80. Did introduce small snow POPs of (20-30%) into the forecast. Again, only expecting trace amounts of snow for those that do catch a little snow. Monday through Tuesday... This will be a nice warm up especially Tuesday with many areas seeing highs over 60 by Tuesday afternoon. We are essentially in a northwest flow pattern and warmer air pushes in from the west before the next clipper can blast us with another round of cold. Wednesday through Saturday... Warming periods typically don't last long this time of year and that will be the case as we end the work week and move into next weekend. The next clipper system comes in from the northwest Tuesday night and could bring some light rain or snow to the forecast area by Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. At this point it doesn't look like a big snow maker for our area but it's still a long ways off with a wide envelope of model solutions at this point in time. What is most likely at this point is that gradually colder air will work back into the area late week into next weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1155 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: A cold front has moved through the terminals over the past couple of hours, resulting in strong/gusty Nrly winds and MVFR stratus. The winds will weaken some over next few hours, but the stratus will continue. CIGs will likely hover near the IFR/MVFR threshold between 08Z and 13Z, and could go back and forth either way. Should see steadily rising CIGs after 13Z, but expect to remain MVFR through midday Sunday. Could see some flurries or light snow showers Sun afternoon, but don't think these will be strong/organized enough to meaningfully reduce CIGs or VSBYs. Expect decreasing clouds Sunday evening and winds will weaken to light and varible. Confidence: Medium to high. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Wesely AVIATION...Thies