####018006282#### FXUS61 KRLX 170323 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 1123 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The Flash Flood Watch has been extended through late Monday night. With additional showers and thunderstorms expected Monday, it won't take much additional rainfall to cause new flash flooding. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Flash flooding and severe weather are expected today with a lingering, persistent active weather pattern. Repeated rounds of heavy rainfall from training showers and thunderstorms could rapidly lead to flash flooding, especially areas that are already saturated and inundated. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... 136 PM Update... A severe thunderstorm watch is in effect in til 8 PM tonight. This is for all of our southeastern Ohio and a majority of our West Virginia counties, basically the I-64 corridor and north. Lincoln, Boone, and Raleigh are also included. Seeing generous convection forming across our western forecast area with downburst wind gusts reaching the 40-50 mph range as reported by a few ASOS sites. Expecting these storms to hold together and even strengthen as they traverse the area ESEward. The best wind dynamics will be situated across SE'rn Ohio and northern West Virginia (especially the US-50 corridor) where better wind shear (20-40 knots) is present. Rapid clearing is occurring over the central lowlands and coalfields which will build better instability through the afternoon. This will be another area to watch later this afternoon and evening. 1204 PM Update... Flash flooding concerns continue through tonight. Additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms will move across the area this afternoon and evening leading to additional or worsening flooding. ~12z HRRR shows the next round forming to our west in Ohio and subsequently moving west to east across our area later this afternoon and evening. The ~12z NAM is concerning as it shows the next round forming over Ohio and then tracking across our area between 1 PM and 3 PM, offering only a small break between our most recent deluge. It then shows another hefty round later this evening through tonight. Some of these storms could be on the strong to severe side containing damaging wind gusts and of course heavy downpours. CAPE is expected to be between 2,500 and 3,500 J/kg if timely clearing occurs this afternoon. This is more than sufficient to spawn widespread showers and thunderstorms, with scattered strong to severe storms being a possibility. There is the chance for a tornado or two to occur with any more organized, clear-air storms. The main driver for this threat would be if an additional surface low forms along the stationary front currently bisecting the area. This would cause a backing in the wind field increasing wind shear from 20-30 knots to at least 40-60 knots. Otherwise, damaging downburst winds and the heavy rainfall will be the main concerns. Current guidance suggests that at least another 1-2 inches of rainfall will fall across the area through tonight. Locally higher amounts between 3-5 inches could be possible somewhere in Ohio or central/northern WV if the NAM solution is right. A flood watch goes until 8 AM Monday to cover the likely additional flash flooding later this afternoon through tonight. A rare moderate risk (level 3/4) for excessive rainfall spans the bulk of WV with the rest of the area in a slight risk (level 2/4). Showers and thunderstorms are expected again for Monday, but the severe threat and primary heavy rain threat shifts south of our area as a cold front crosses. A marginal risk (level 1/4) for excessive rainfall is still in place across our area for Monday with a marginal risk (level 1/5) for severe weather covers our VA and far southern WV counties. A bit of a reprieve is expected behind this front for Tuesday and Wednesday until another front crosses Thursday. && .AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Occasional MVFR and VIS restrictions under heavy convection across the area currently. This will persist into tonight. Expect fog to develop even with a little wind due to saturated soils and partly clearing out of CIGs. Expect low stratus at sites as well into the mid to late morning. Any fog or stratus will lift at 13/14Z then low MVFR CIGs will persist into the afternoon. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and location of showers and thunderstorms will vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE MON 08/17/26 UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H L L L L L L L HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M M M M EKN CONSISTENCY H M M H H M M M M M M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M H M H M M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H L M M L L L AFTER 06Z TUESDAY... IFR or lower possible in valley fog and low stratus Monday night and Tuesday morning. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...Flood Watch through late Monday night for WVZ005>011-013>020- 024>032-034-039-040-515>526. OH...Flood Watch through late Monday night for OHZ066-067-075-076- 083>087. KY...Flood Watch through late Monday night for KYZ101>103-105. VA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JZ/LTC/26 AVIATION...JZ