####018004997#### FXUS63 KSGF 092245 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 445 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Gusty southwest winds at 20 to 30 mph, becoming west to northwest into Wednesday morning at 25 to 35 mph. - Near to above average temperatures through Friday. The warmest temperatures will be focused across the south and west with highs in the 50s. - Cooler temperatures settle into the are Friday night through Sunday, with the coldest temperatures on Sunday. Minimum wind chills on Sunday morning dip into the single digits to teens. - Dry through most of the period with precipitation chances less than 10%. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 130 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 Today-Tonight: A longwave trough with northwest flow persist over the region. At the surface, a low pressure is rapidly intensifying across the Northern Plains into the the Northern Mississippi Valley. As this system builds into the Great Lakes region, a strong pressure gradient builds over the area supporting gusty winds ahead of an associated frontal passage. This has supported gusty southwest winds this afternoon around 20 to 30 mph, advecting in a much warmer airmass. Highs this afternoon have reached into the middle to upper 50s. By this evening into tonight, some clouds begin to build into the area ahead of an approaching frontal passage. This cold front is expected to remain dry across the area, with PoPs < 10%. Meanwhile, strong wind gusts persist behind the frontal passage, as winds turns out of the west to northwest. The latest guidance suggests wind gusts approach 25 to 35 mph, with occasional gusts near 40 mph, as further supported by forecast soundings at the top of the mixed layer. NBM Probabilities depicts the following for wind gusts overnight into Wednesday morning: Prob > 30 mph: 60-90% Prob > 35 mph: 30-60% Prob > 40 mph: 10-30% HREF guidance depicts the timing of the strongest wind gusts on Wednesday morning, focused along and east of Highway 65. Wednesday: Clouds gradually clear through Wednesday morning, with gusty winds tapering off through the afternoon. Highs on Wednesday reach into the middle 40s (north) to near 50 (south). Additional cloud cover overspreads the area Wednesday night as a secondary wave translates through the region. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 130 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 Thursday: By Thursday, a surface warm front lifts back through the area supporting a return of mild temperatures and southerly winds. The ridge and increasing mid-level heights nudge into the area, resulting in a temperature spread varying from middle to upper 50s (west) to upper 40s (east). Friday-Sunday: As we progress into Friday, uncertainty returns to the temperature forecast as ensemble guidance continues to struggle capturing the timing and strength of impending CAA with the next dip in the jet stream. This can be captured by run to run and model to model discrepancies. NBM interquartile temperature spreads remain 10 to 15 degrees this weekend. The latest trends and forecast support the mild temperatures lingering through at least Friday across southern MO. In this area, forecast highs are progged to reach into the lower to middle 50s. The cooler temperatures appear to remain contained further north through Friday. However, ensembles gradually filter in the cooler airmass on Saturday with highs in the upper 30s to 40s. Surface high pressure sinks south into the area on Sunday, with a secondary surge of colder air. Overnight lows fall into the teens to near 20 into Sunday morning with breezy northerly winds. This will support wind chills dipping into the single digits to teens. Highs Sunday are expected to be below normal despite the larger interquartile spreads, with most guidance highlighting upper 20s to 30s. Next Week: The extent and longevity of the below normal temperatures appears to remain confined to this weekend, as NBM depicts a warming trend into early next week. This would suggest highs returning to near normal to a few degrees below normal for mid- December. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 438 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 VFR conditions through the TAF period with broken to overcast mid and high clouds. Low-level wind shear has been added to the TAFs as well with the presence of a strong NW low-level jet. Southwest winds will gust to 25 kt and will gradually turn to the northwest overnight with the passage of a dry cold front. These gusty winds will continue through the day Wednesday. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Perez LONG TERM...Perez AVIATION...Didio ####018004175#### FXUS64 KMAF 092246 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 446 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 445 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 - Slightly cooler temperatures return Wednesday behind a passing cold front. - Above normal temperatures are expected Thursday through Saturday before a stronger cold front brings much cooler temperatures on Sunday. - Dry conditions persist through the weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Wednesday night) Issued at 227 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 Sunny skies and dry conditions remain prevalent across West Texas and Southeast New Mexico this afternoon as a deep layer dry airmass continues to settle over our region. A surface trough of low pressure extends from the Texas Panhandle to the Big Bend region this afternoon, allowing for southwesterly to westerly winds, low relative humidity, and mild temperatures in the 60s to lower 70s across the forecast area. Westerly winds have been elevated up to 25-35 mph with a few gusts over 45 mph at times in the Guadalupe, Delaware, and Davis Mountains this afternoon. No significant weather is expected to impact the area tonight through Wednesday night as dry northwesterly flow aloft remains in place over our region. A shortwave trough clipping across the northern and central Plains will send a cold front southward through most of our forecast area Wednesday morning. Northerly to northeasterly winds will become breezy following frontal passage, especially over far southeast New Mexico and the Permian Basin where speeds up to 20-25 mph and a few gusts over 35 mph will be possible Wednesday morning into early Wednesday afternoon before gradually diminishing. Lows tonight are generally forecast to range in the mid 30s to mid 40s. Highs on Wednesday will trend cooler in the lower to mid 60s over much of the area, except for 50s in the mountains and in the 70s along the southern Big Bend/Rio Grande. Lows by Wednesday night trend a bit colder in the 30s to around 40 degrees over most locations. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Monday) Issued at 227 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 Dry northwesterly flow aloft will prevail over the central and southern Plains through the end of the week while ridging aloft extends across the Desert Southwest. Upper-level ridging then builds over west Texas and southeast New Mexico by Saturday. A weak front may move into the forecast area by Friday, but should generally only feature a northerly to northwesterly wind shift with not much effect on temperatures. Above normal temperatures and dry conditions can be expected Thursday through Saturday. A stronger cold front still looks on track to push through our forecast area late Saturday night into Sunday morning. Temperatures look to be much cooler with highs in the 50s to lower 60s over most of our region on Sunday. Winds should turn southerly again by Monday with temperatures rebounding back into the mid 60s to around 70 degrees. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 445 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours as a weak cold front moves through the area. A few high clouds are possible south. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 41 63 35 71 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 42 65 37 72 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 45 72 40 73 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 47 66 39 74 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 42 57 39 63 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 42 62 35 70 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 34 64 30 69 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 41 63 37 69 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 44 62 38 69 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 39 64 34 72 / 0 0 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...21 LONG TERM....21 AVIATION...99 ####018011017#### FXUS61 KBOX 092249 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 549 PM EST Tue Dec 9 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A moisture starved shortwave crosses the region tonight with a period of mainly scattered light snow showers. A more significant disturbance brings much milder temperatures and a period of mainly rain Wednesday afternoon and evening with any snow confined to the highest terrain of the Berkshires and northern Worcester Hills. A cold front crosses the region later Wednesday night...bringing mainly dry, but blustery and cold weather returning Thursday into Friday. Low pressure may bring snow with even some ice/rain to the region Saturday night into Sunday depending on its track. This will be followed by another shot of arctic air and well below normal temperatures early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Key Messages... * Cold/dry conditions persist for the rest of the afternoon * Southerly winds support increasing temperatures overnight * Slight chance for some snow showers mainly across eastern MA Rest of Today and Tonight High pressure continues to support sunny skies, light winds, and dry weather for the rest of the afternoon. As high pressure shifts east overnight, return flow from the south will support increasing temperatures through day break. Thus, we can actually expect the overnight low to occur around midnight. A moisture starved short-wave disturbance aloft moves overhead after midnight. This may support a few widely scattered snow showers, mainly across eastern MA. Not expecting any significant impacts or accumulations with only a dusting at locations where snow showers develop. Temperatures rise to the mid to upper 20s across most of interior southern New England by sunrise. Low 20s for northwest MA/high elevations and upper 30s to low 40s for Cape/Islands. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Key Messages... * Increasing cloudiness tomorrow with more mild temperatures during the day * Rain/snow Showers overspread the region from west to east tomorrow afternoon and evening * Cold front clears clouds/showers out overnight and is followed by cold/blustery conditions Wednesday and Wednesday Night Warm advection and strong southerly winds support increasing temperatures tomorrow with 925 and 850 hPa temps rising to near 0C by the afternoon. This will support mild surface temperatures in the upper 40s to low 50s across southeastern MA and RI tomorrow. Areas across western MA and CT will be much cooler in the upper 30s to low 40s. Rain/snow showers begin to overspread the region from west to east tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow evening. Mainly expecting rain with some snow showers possible at the higher elevations of The Berkshires and northern Worcester Hills. Accumulations will be minor, but may approach 1-2 inches on the east slopes of The Berks. Elsewhere, mainly in Worcester County, only expecting a dusting if any accumulation at all. A cold front moves over the region tomorrow night and clears skies from west to east after midnight. This will be followed by a brisk west/northwest wind and temperatures dipping back down into the upper 20s/low 30s by Thursday morning. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Key Messages: * Falling temps Thurs with very cold and windy conditions Thurs aftn to evening. * Dry with modifying temps starting Fri into early Sat. * Still monitoring low pressure which may bring accumulating snow and/or a wintry mix of precip types to Southern New England Sat night or into Sun, but the storm's track and strength are both uncertain. * Another shot of modified-Arctic air and blustery winds for early next week. Details: Thursday: Closed 500 mb low and its associated reservoir of modified-Arctic air will entrench itself into Southern New England on Thurs. Tightening NWly pressure gradient combined with a deepening mixed layer supporting enhanced NW wind gusts will make for a windy and very cold day. Wind gusts at top of the mixed layer are progged around 45 to 50 kt, and efficient mixing should allow for gusts to near-Advisory levels (35 to 45 mph). The bigger impact though is that it will lead to falling temperatures and biting wind chills through the afternoon; expect mid-morning highs then temps fall though the teens to mid 20s by early evening. By early evening, wind chills run in the single digits above zero in the terrain to the mid/upper teens above zero for the remainder of Southern New England, including the Cape and Islands. Because the NW winds stay up for the entire evening under a continued tight NW pressure gradient, nighttime lows may only fall into the teens above zero, but wind chills in the 5 above to 5 to 10 below zero range by sunrise Fri. Friday: Frigid start, although we enter into a warm advection pattern starting Fri; while temps are still below normal, easing winds will help take the edge off the wind chill. Full sun should allow highs in the 20s to around freezing in/around the terrain and in the low to mid 30s for lower elevations and the coasts. Dry weather for the evening despite a modest increase in clouds, so some radiational cooling likely to be offset by the warmer profiles (925 mb temps warming to around -4 to -6C) and the cloud cover for lows in the mid teens to lower to mid 20s. The Weekend: Increasing cloud cover on Sat but generally dry during the daytime hours aside from a spot, non-impactful snow shower underneath the cloud cover, with highs in the 30s, to near 40 along the south coast. Still monitoring developments regarding a potential storm system that could threaten Southern New England later Sat night and/or Sunday, as active northern stream energy pattern continues to favor Clipper type systems. Besides the usual timing and storm track uncertainties at this time range, global models still show a disparity of potential outcomes due to differences in phasing between a closed low over central Canadian Prairies and a weak vort max coming around the northern Rockies/central Plains/upper Midwest. These outcomes range from not much at all as phasing between the two streams occurs too late/offshore (e.g. GFS/its ensemble) to stronger/earlier phasing between the two energy streams (e.g. ECMWF/Canadian camp) leading to a more robust low pressure which treks somewhere ranging from interior northern New England and/or as far south as the CT-RI-MA I-95 corridor. Depending on the exact track...the international model solutions could favor an accumulating snow for parts of or much of Southern New England Sunday, with better chance for interior Southern New England, although a more interior storm track would introduce more wintry mix (PL/FZRA) or rain into the mix. Thus as mentioned, quite a few uncertainties that still need to be ironed out, but these are details we'll be keeping tabs on as we move through the workweek and it is too early to lock into any one outcome as yet. Monday and Tuesday: System exits early on Monday which brings decreased cloudiness, but with it comes another dump of colder, modified-Arctic air and blustery conditions. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 00Z TAF Update... VFR. Light southwest winds Tonight...High Confidence Mainly VFR with some MVFR cloud bases right around 3000-4000 feet possible. Low chance for some snow showers between roughly 02-07Z as a weak disturbance moves over the region. Winds becoming more steady out of the southwest with speeds increasing to around 10 knots with some 20 knot gusts possible over The Cape/Islands. Tomorrow... High Confidence in trends, moderate in timing VFR likely through 18Z, then MVFR ceilings overspread the region from west to east with -RA. Not expecting MVFR ceilings to reach BOS/PVD until 20-22Z time frame. Cape/Islands terminals don't fall below VFR until after 00Z. Tomorrow Night... High Confidence MVFR ceilings reach Cape/Islands between 00-06Z. Conditions gradually improve back to VFR between 06-12Z as a cold front sweeps across the region. Winds shift to the west/northwest behind the front with sustained winds around 15 knots. KBOS Terminal...Moderate Confidence in TAF. Low chance for -SN overnight between roughly 03-09Z. KBDL Terminal...High Confidence in TAF. Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/... Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Windy with areas of gusts up to 35 kt. Chance RA, slight chance FZRA, patchy BR. Thursday through Thursday Night: VFR. Windy with gusts up to 35 kt. Friday: VFR. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt. Friday Night through Saturday: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SN. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Tonight through Wednesday night...High confidence. Gale Watch upgraded to gale warning for tonight and tomorrow as a LLJ allows for SW wind gusts of 35 knots to develop over the coastal waters. Showers move over the coastal waters tomorrow evening and tomorrow night. Gale force winds mainly from the southwest through Thursday morning. Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/... Wednesday Night: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Rough seas up to 12 ft. Chance of rain, patchy fog. Thursday: Moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Areas of rough seas. Slight chance of rain. Thursday Night: Moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 40 kt. Areas of rough seas. Slight chance of snow. Friday: Strong winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Areas of rough seas. Friday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Local rough seas. Slight chance of rain. Saturday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Local rough seas. Chance of rain, slight chance of snow. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 6 AM EST Thursday for ANZ230-236. Gale Warning from 1 AM Wednesday to 6 AM EST Thursday for ANZ231>235-237-250-251-254>256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Frank/RM NEAR TERM...RM SHORT TERM...RM LONG TERM...Loconto AVIATION...Loconto/FT MARINE...Loconto/RM