####018006506#### FXUS61 KPBZ 110713 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 213 AM EST Thu Dec 11 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Active weather through the weekend will bring rounds of snow, occasionally mixed with rain, as well as fluctuating temperature and gusty winds. Overall, snowfall accumulations favor areas north of Interstate 80 and the ridges of southwest Pennsylvania and northern West Virginia. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/... KEY MESSAGES: - Lingering upslope and lake-effect snow showers today taper off after sunset; light accumulations possible north of I-80 and in the ridges - Below seasonal temperatures continue --------------------------------------------------------------- Today will be characterized by post-frontal northwest flow with lake-effect snow showers/banding possible through the day. The best chance for additional accumulations will be along and north of I-80 where these bands could locally add another couple inches to the snowpack. Farther south, only some passing light snow showers or flurries will be possible with little to no additional accumulations. Lake-effect activity wanes tonight as winds gradually diminish and back to more west-southwesterly. Temperatures will be cold, with highs this afternoon remaining below freezing for most and lows tonight dropping into the teens north of I-80 and low 20s elsewhere. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... KEY MESSAGES: - Transition to lingering upslope and lake-effect snow Thursday - Temperatures continue well below average ---------------------------------------------------------------- A weak shortwave dives across the Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic first thing Friday morning, bringing increasing snow chances south of I-70 with the best chance for light accumulations in the ridges of northern WV. A second shortwave hot on its heels moves over the lower Great Lakes overnight Friday into early Saturday. This second wave brings light snow chances to more of the area but with little to no additional accumulation. Overall, guidance continues its downward trend in snowfall potential across the area, with the latest NBM probabilities suggesting the highest chances (only around 30%) for at least an inch of snowfall remain south of I-68 and in the WV ridges. Probabilities for at least 3 inches of snowfall are 20% or less in these same areas. Temperatures moderate slightly Friday with highs reaching the low to mid 30s south of I-80 and upper 20s north. Lows Friday night remain cold, in the teens north of I-80 and low 20s farther south. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... KEY MESSAGES: - Alberta Clipper returns snow chances to the region late Saturday into Sunday; highest accumulations appear to favor areas south of Pittsburgh at this time - Very cold temperatures continue into early next week; Cold Weather Advisory along the ridges may be needed early Monday ------------------------------------------------------------------- Long-range guidance continues to strongly favor a trough over the Great Lakes, maintaining cold air across the region through the weekend. A fast-moving Alberta Clipper is expected to track in late Saturday into early Sunday, potentially causing travel impacts from accumulating snow. Current projections place the highest chances of impacts south of Pittsburgh. The most likely range is 2-4 inches, though a few scenarios support higher totals if localized bands develop. Winter Weather Advisories may be needed. Strong cold air advection in the wake of this system will filter a continental polar airmass into the region, bringing us some of our coldest temperatures of the season to this point. Highs Sunday may not climb above 20 degrees for some, and breezy winds will mean even daytime wind chills could hover in the single digits. Lows Sunday night drop into the teens and single digits under clearing skies. Wind chills may drop below zero in the ridges, meaning a Cold Weather Advisory could be needed. Similarly cold temperatures are expected to last through Monday night before long range guidance suggests a possible flip in the synoptic pattern brings a warming trend into the middle and latter part of next week. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... KEY MESSAGES: - On and off snow showers with fluctuating VFR/MVFR conditions favoring western PA through Thursday evening. ------------------------------------------------------------------- Strong cold advection and deeper mixing within the post-frontal environment favors ceilings improvements that fluctuate between 1.5kft - 4kft and become predominantly VFR by 17z Thursday (amid increasing subsidence). Tonight, narrow bands of lake effect snow showers and convective snow showers (isolated) may provide brief heavier snow that temporarily reduces visibility. FKL and DUJ are the most likely to see impact from these heavier bands of snow through 14z. Diurnal mixing Thursday afternoon may elicit light snow showers/flurries that last longer than TAF mention, but are unlikely to offer accumulations. Otherwise, high pressure moving through the OH river valley will slowly end snow showers by Thursday evening. Outlook... A fast-moving shortwave may develop a band of synoptically- forced snow early Friday morning into the afternoon. Currently, this looks to mainly impact central/southern West Virginia, however, variances in its path remain large. Even without snow, reinforcing cold air likely will maintain periods of MVFR to lower VFR stratocu across the region. The active weather pattern continues Saturday into Sunday with additional upper shortwave trough movement; expect additional periods of restrictions with any falling precipitation being snow. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for PAZ007>009-015-016-074-076-078. OH...None. WV...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for WVZ511-513. Blizzard Warning until 10 AM EST this morning for WVZ512-514. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Cermak NEAR TERM...Cermak SHORT TERM...Cermak LONG TERM...Cermak/Hefferan AVIATION...Lupo