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FXUS65 KVEF 130927

AFDVEF



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Las Vegas NV

227 AM PDT Sat Jun 13 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



* Isolated showers and thunderstorms possible in the higher terrain 

  of northwestern Arizona and the eastern Sierra.



* Afternoon high temperatures will continue to range between 8 and

  12 degrees above seasonal normals peaking Tuesday and Wednesday.



&&





.DISCUSSION...Today through Tuesday.



The Desert Southwest is currently situated between a high pressure 

system in the eastern Pacific and a high pressure system over 

northern Mexico. This pattern has allowed tropical moisture from the 

remnants of tropical systems Boris and Cristina to surge northward 

into the Mojave Desert this weekend. This moisture is relatively 

high - around 600 mb - with very dry air at the surface. As a 

result, showers and thunderstorms that form are unlikely to produce 

much in the way of measurable rainfall, as much of it will evaporate 

before it hits the ground. That said, with 1500 J/kg of DCAPE across 

northwestern Arizona and over 2500 J/kg of DCAPE across southern 

Nevada, thunderstorms that form are likely to create strong gusty 

winds from their direction, with gust speeds between 35 and 45 mph. 

Best chances of shower and thunderstorm activity (15-30%) exist over 

the eastern Sierra Nevada as well as over the mountains of Nye, 

Lincoln, and Mohave counties, though with 0.8-1.00 inches of PWAT 

and the help of orographic lift, cannot rule out formation on any 

area mountains. Expect similar conditions and a further westward 

expansion of thunderstorm activity on Sunday before conditions dry 

out for the work week.



Elevated heights over the western United States will allow afternoon 

temperatures to remain 8 to 12 degrees above seasonal normals 

through the weekend and first half of the week. Temperatures will 

peak on Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons, as desert valleys gear up 

for widespread Major Heat Risk (Level 3 of 4) with pockets of 

Extreme (Level 4 of 4). Locations such as the Las Vegas Valley, 

Moapa Valley, Colorado River Valley, Morongo Valley, and Death 

Valley can expect overnight lows in the mid-to-upper 80s, which will 

exacerbate heat illness-related symptoms in those without proper 

cooling. There is an indication that temperatures will cool off late-

week as a trough axis pushes through the Intermountain West.

&&





.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 12Z Forecast Package... 

South winds around 8KT will become light and variable later this 

morning. A period of southeast winds is expected starting just 

before 18Z with speeds around 10KT. A few gusts to around 15KT are

possible with the southeast winds. Winds will become south around

21Z and gust to around 20KT for the rest of the afternoon. An 

isolated shower or thunderstorm will be possible over the higher 

terrain of southern Nevada and northwest Arizona this afternoon 

and evening. While storms are not expected near the terminals, 

there is a chance of gusty outflow winds impacting the terminal 

area after 00Z. Most likely, gusts will end around sunset but 

elevated southwest winds around 10KT will persist through about 

06Z. Winds will drop below 8KT by 09Z and continue to be light 

through into Sunday morning. Temperatures will exceed 100 degrees 

between 18Z through 04Z. FEW to SCT clouds around 15kft will 

develop in the afternoon and continue into the evening. 



For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast

California...For the 12Z Forecast Package...West winds at 10-15KT 

will continue through the morning at KDAG. Elsewhere, winds under 

10KT are expected. South to southwest winds will develop late 

morning and afternoon, gusting 15-25KT in most locations. KDAG will 

see west winds up to 25KT starting around 00Z. Winds will slowly 

diminish after sunset this evening. Isolated showers and 

thunderstorms will be possible over southern Nevada, northwest 

Arizona, and portions of the Sierra this afternoon and evening. 

Any storms could produce lightning and sudden gusty outflow winds,

with the highest chance for impacts to TAF terminals being at 

KBIH. Any convection that develops this afternoon will wane after 

sunset, with winds diminishing after sunset as well. 

&&





.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report

any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating

procedures.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...Soulat

AVIATION...Nickerson



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