####018005304#### FXUS62 KMLB 041125 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 625 AM EST Thu Dec 4 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 151 AM EST Thu Dec 4 2025 - Gradual warming into this weekend before becoming more seasonable/cooler early to mid next week. - Next cold front will move through the area late Sunday into Monday. - Dry conditions through late week, with increasing shower chances and isolated lightning storms returning this weekend along and ahead of that next cold front. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 151 AM EST Thu Dec 4 2025 Current-Fri...Surface high pressure weakens today across the region, though conditions stay mainly dry thru the period. Light and variable winds veer NE/ENE 5-10 mph today, but we may see a degree of variability for surface winds across the ECFL interior into the afternoon as the pgrad is very weak. Light winds tonight, then S/SW winds 7-12 mph (few higher gusts) developing into Fri. The next weather system will develop across the western Gulf with low pressure tracking across the northern Gulf late tonight/Fri. This should drag the next front into the FL Panhandle/north FL by sunrise Sat morning where it becomes quasi- stationary. Increasing moisture will pool along and ahead of this feature to the north of central FL. Partly cloudy skies into Fri, but expect increasing cloudiness across the I-4 corridor later in the period where moisture is deepest. Gradual warming trend into late work-week with maxes today in the L70s along the Volusia coast and M-U70s across the I-4 corridor southward - perhaps some 80 degree readings near Kenansville southward inland from the coast. Near 80F to L80s prevail Fri and perhaps a few M80s southern Osceola-southwest Brevard southward west of I-95. For mins, slightly warmer tonight/Fri morning with U50s to L60s forecast, except M60s for barrier islands and coastal Martin County. Generally L-M 60s areawide Fri overnight/Sat morning. Sat-Wed...The next front meanders across the north-central FL peninsula, but appears to finally get a nudge southward Sun overnight/early Mon. Deepest moisture still pools near this boundary with PWATs 1.75-2.00" across the area on Sun. We keep ISOLD-SCT (20- 50%) showers in the forecast Brevard-Osceola northward Sat-Sat night, increasing values areawide 40-60% on Sun and around 40% Sun night. Showers (15-30%) end north-south thru the day on Mon from near Orlando southward. There will also be an ISOLD threat of thunder this weekend - mainly on Sun, with a few lingering storms still possible along the Treasure Coast on Mon as moisture is slow to scour out. Weak high pressure gradually settles in behind this latest weather system into mid next week with mainly dry conditions areawide Mon night-Wed across land. Highs remain above normal in the U70s/L80s (few M80s southward) for Sat-Sun (pre-frontal). Cooler conditions return on Mon-Wed (post- frontal) in the U60s to L-M70s. Lows in the 60s areawide Sat/Sun overnight periods. Generally 50s areawide Mon overnight/Tue, except U40s for portions of north Lake/northwest Volusia counties. Tue night will be the coldest with L-M40s north/west of I-4 with U40s to around 50F southward thru much of the interior (W of I-95) & Volusia coast. L-M50s further south along the Space/Treasure coasts. && .MARINE... Issued at 151 AM EST Thu Dec 4 2025 Today-Mon...A developing long period ERLY swell ~10 seconds continues into Sat. Winds and seas become favorable into late week as light northerly winds early today begin to veer more onshore through the day and become southerly thru Fri and SW Fri night/Sat and more SW/W Sat night/Sun ahead of an approaching front. Winds become NW/N on Mon (post-frontal) with speeds increasing to 15-20 kts and higher gusts. Seas 2-3 ft very near shore thru Sat, but may increase to 5 ft well offshore Cape northward Sat overnight/Sun and 6 ft offshore Sun night/Mon. Seas are forecast to build further to 7 ft over the offshore legs Mon overnight. Generally dry thru Fri night, but increasing shower chances and ISOLD lightning storms may enter the picture again Sat-Sun as moisture increases with approaching front. Precip gradually winds down later on Mon. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFs) Issued at 625 AM EST Thu Dec 4 2025 A few spots of patchy fog along the Treasure Coast should lift after sunrise. Otherwise, VFR is forecast through the TAF period. Light and variable winds become established out of the east- northeast this afternoon, remaining less than 10 kts. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 72 60 81 63 / 0 10 0 10 MCO 78 61 83 66 / 0 0 0 10 MLB 76 63 83 63 / 0 0 0 0 VRB 77 61 83 63 / 0 0 0 0 LEE 76 59 81 65 / 0 10 0 20 SFB 77 61 83 65 / 0 0 0 10 ORL 77 61 82 66 / 0 0 0 10 FPR 78 61 83 63 / 0 0 0 0 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Sedlock AVIATION...Law ####018003997#### FXUS64 KMOB 041125 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 525 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 520 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025 - Periods of heavy rain are expected today through Saturday with the potential of localized flooding. - There is a moderate risk of life threatening rip currents tonight through Friday night for the beaches of Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1244 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025 Deep west-southwesterly flow will bring abundant moisture into the region today, with precipitable water (PWAT) values increasing to 1.5- 1.8 inches by this evening. An inverted surface trough will advance from the western Gulf to the north central Gulf today, followed by a surface low and warm front lifting north toward the Florida Panhandle tonight. This surface low will then shift east of the area Friday morning. Meanwhile, a series of upper level impulses will traverse the region through the remainder of the week, resulting in definite precipitation chances (pops) today into the evening hours, followed by likely to definite pops late this evening through Saturday. Embedded elevated non-severe thunderstorms are expected south of the U.S. Highway 84 corridor today into the evening hours, followed by embedded thunderstorms across much of the forecast area late this evening through around noon on Friday. Primarily moderate rain is forecast Friday afternoon through Saturday as the surface low shifts east of the area. Our entire area is outlooked for a marginal risk of excessive rainfall on Friday, and for areas southeast of the I-65 corridor on Saturday as there remains a signal for modest probabilities for the potential of heavy rain. Widespread rainfall amounts of 2.5 to 3.5 inches are forecast for much of the area, with locally higher amounts up to 6 inches possible. The entire system will exit the area near the end of the weekend, with a dry period returning through the middle of next week. Beach Forecast: A LOW risk of rip currents today will increase to MODERATE tonight through Friday night, and is expected to drop back to LOW over the weekend. /22 && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 525 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025 High coverage of rain is expected through the evening hours, then coverage diminishes from west to east overnight. Predominately VFR/MVFR conditions decrease to IFR through the early afternoon hours with LIFR conditions possible. East to northeast winds around 5 knots increase to 5-10 knots through the morning hours, with a switch to a north to northeast direction late tonight. /29 && .MARINE... Issued at 1244 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025 Mariners operating small craft on the Gulf should exercise caution this afternoon and tonight as easterly winds increase and then shift southeasterly due to an inverted surface trough advancing from the western Gulf to the north central Gulf. Mariners operating small craft should exercise caution over all our marine areas early next week as a strong surface high builds in from the north. Mariners should also be on the lookout for higher winds/seas and reduced visibilities associated with numerous to widespread showers and a chance of thunderstorms today through the remainder of the week. /22 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 54 46 56 47 / 100 80 70 70 Pensacola 58 51 61 52 / 90 80 90 80 Destin 59 52 66 53 / 80 80 90 80 Evergreen 52 43 56 44 / 90 90 80 70 Waynesboro 47 40 52 41 / 100 90 60 50 Camden 47 40 52 40 / 90 90 70 50 Crestview 53 45 60 48 / 90 90 90 70 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ ####018009567#### FXUS61 KBOX 041125 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 625 AM EST Thu Dec 4 2025 .SYNOPSIS... An arctic cold front crosses the region today with a few snow showers and a localized snow squall or two, particularly for western MA. Windy conditions and bitterly cold temperatures tonight. The winds quickly diminish by Friday, but it remains unseasonably cold. Scattered snow showers possibly mixing with rain showers late Friday night into Saturday with a low pressure system passing well to our south. Another arctic cold front crosses the region Sunday followed by well below normal temperatures Sunday night into Tuesday. A low pressure system approaching from the west may bring some more rain/snow showers by Tuesday night and/or Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Key Messages: * Arctic cold front passes through southern New England, bringing scattered snow showers and the chance for localized snow squalls Not much has changed for today from the previous forecast. An arctic cold front will cross over southern New England this afternoon. Some clouds and sunshine before that should bring highs up to the 30s and low 40s. Forecast soundings from the high-res guidance still indicate dry low to mid levels across much of the region, though snow squall parameter values from the NAM and GFS do remain elevated. Lapse rates and some elevated instability could point more favorably for the development of localized snow squalls, particularly in NW MA, but the key limiting factor will still be the drier air aloft. Scattered snow showers with some flurries are more favored elsewhere as the front passes through. As the front moves through, winds will pick up from the NW. Gusts between 25-40 MPH can be expected during the late afternoon hours, continuing through the evening into the first half of tonight. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... Key Messages: * Bitterly cold with lows well below normal in the single digits and wind chills between -10F and +10F * Unseasonably cold conditions continue for Friday Gusty NW winds fall off over the second half of tonight as high pressure starts to creep in from the west. 925 mb temperatures fall between -15C and -18C as the arctic airmass behind the day's front moves over the region. Wind chills could fall to -10F in some spots in NW MA. Skies also clear out tonight, and if winds diminish enough, this combined with the snowpack could be enough for lows to fall below zero there. Elsewhere, wind chill values could end up maxing out at +10F with lows in the teens and single digits. High pressure builds in from the west during the day Friday. Sunny skies with light winds will prevail, but high temperatures are still expected to be colder than normal for this time of year. 925 mb temperatures do improve to between -8C and 10C, but given limited mixing during the day, high temperatures stay in the 20s and low 30s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Scattered snow showers possibly mixing with rain showers late Friday night into Saturday with a low pressure system passing well to our south. Another arctic cold front crosses the region Sunday followed by well below normal temperatures Sunday night into Tuesday. A low pressure system approaching from the west may bring some more rain/snow showers by Tuesday night and/or Wednesday. Key Messages: * Scattered snow/rain showers possible late Fri-Saturday, potentially changing over to rain Sat, especially east of I-95. Any snow accumulation likely to be minor. * Another shot of arctic air Sun night into Tue with well below normal highs and very chilly nights in teens/single digits. Details... Friday Night & Saturday: High pressure shifts offshore by Friday night as a weak shortwave trough approaches southern New England. An associated surface low tracks off the mid-Atlantic coast, passing to the south and east of the region Friday into Saturday. This will bring the risk for some scattered snow or rain showers. Without a strong, anchored cold air mass, there is a chance for rain to mix in, potentially changing to rain showers (Inside I-95, SE MA) in the afternoon. Snow accumulations will be light with ensembles means showing amounts less than an inch. Total QPF is on the light side as well (< 0.25") with the highest chances for precip (rain) for the Cape/Islands. Model guidance continues to show an inverted trough positioned across the region late Fri into Sat with subtle hints of convergence in the wind fields. This could potentially provide better forcing for a more organized band of precipitation. Can't rule out a brief deformation-type band on the backside of the system later Saturday as cooler air pushes in from the west. Details still to be ironed out for timing of these more organized bands of showers and precip type. Temperatures will lean slightly below normal Saturday in the 30s and low 40s for the Cape/Islands. Sunday through Wedneday: Another weak shortwave in the zonal flow aloft moves through Sunday, with another arctic front sweeping across Sunday night-early Monday. Most of Sunday should be dry with highs in the mid-upper 30s and low 40s for the Cape/Islands. Can't rule out a snow shower/flurry Sunday night with the passage of the arctic front. No concerns for impacts. Below normal temperatures and breezy NW winds on Monday with highs in the 20s to low 30s and wind chills in the teens. Below normal temperatures continue Tuesday, although slightly moderated from Monday with highs in the mid-upper 20s for the higher elevations and 30s elsewhere. Confidence in the pattern decreases toward mid-week, but there are indications of a another weak disturbance moving through later Tuesday into Wednesday with potential for showers. Details are still uncertain (timing, amounts, precip type), but will become more clear as we gain a better consensus on the upper level pattern. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 12Z TAF Update... Today and Tonight...High confidence. Moderate for snow shower chances. Mainly VFR conditions. An arctic cold front may bring a few snow showers and the low chance for a localized snow squall or two in the afternoon. This would bring brief localized lower cigs/vsbys. Due to the very scattered nature of the showers, confidence isn't high enough to include snow showers in TAF. Highest chances for seeing a shower/flurry or isolated squall will be in the afternoon, with western MA having the highest chance for localized squalls. WSW winds today with gusts 20-25 kts. Front moves through 18-22Z with winds shifting to WNW/NW with gusts increasing to 25-35 kts. Winds gradually diminish late Thursday night into early Friday. Friday...High confidence. VFR. Light winds becoming SW at 5-10 knots. KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF. Low for SNSH chances. KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF. Moderate for SNSH chances. Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/... Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance FZRA, slight chance SN. Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance RA, chance SN, chance FZRA. Saturday Night through Sunday: VFR. Sunday Night: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SN. Monday: VFR. Breezy. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Today through Friday...High confidence. * Gale Warnings this afternoon and tonight The main concern will be an arctic cold front that crosses the region today. This will bring NW wind gusts of 30 to 40 knots this afternoon and tonight. This has prompted the issuance of Gale Warnings for our waters given excellent mixing given the amount of cold air crossing the relatively warm waters. High pressure quickly builds in from the west Fri allowing winds/seas to diminish significantly. Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/... Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain, slight chance of freezing rain. Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain. Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain. Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain, slight chance of snow. Monday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance of snow. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EST Friday for ANZ230-236. Gale Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EST Friday for ANZ231>235-237-250-251-254>256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Frank/Hrencecin/Mensch NEAR TERM...Hrencecin SHORT TERM...Hrencecin LONG TERM...Mensch AVIATION...Hrencecin/Mensch MARINE...Frank/Hrencecin/Mensch ####018002746#### FXUS63 KUNR 041126 AFDUNR Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY National Weather Service Rapid City SD 426 AM MST Thu Dec 4 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Next chance of light snow tonight through Fri morning - More light snow Sat/Sat night - Warm and windy weather for Mon/Tue && .DISCUSSION...(Today Through Wednesday) Issued at 311 AM MST Thu Dec 4 2025 Upper air analysis shows northwesterly flow continuing across the central Great Plains...within broad cyclonic flow stretching across the eastern 2/3rds of the CONUS. Surface analysis shows strong high pressure across eastern SD into MN/IA. A warm front is crossing the CWA...with surface obs showing temps steady or slowly rising overnight. Some locations in the downsloping northeastern foothills have seen temps rise 20 degrees in the last 3-4 hours. High today will much warmer than yesterday...generally in the 30s to mid 40s. A surface trough will bring breezy northwest this morning. Dry weather is expected, but clouds will be increasing ahead of the next wave, which rolls in tonight/Friday. Light snow will begin late this evening through Friday morning, but little to no QPF is expected across most locations. Weak upsloping will redevelop across the northern Black Hills, which could bring 1-3" of accumulation. After the next brief dry period, from Fri PM through Fri night, a disturbance approach, accompanied by a 170kt jet streak crossing the northern Rockies into the High Plains. A surface low is progged to cross the Nebraska, drawing cooler air back into the CWA...with highs in the 20s to low 30s. Another round of light snow will push through...but this time a bit more widespread. Most areas are expected to see up to an inch or two over an 18-20 hour period...maybe slightly higher amounts again across the northern Black Hills. Generally unsettled NW flow continues early next week. However, models are showing enough warm air moving in to potentially bring temps in the 50s Monday and Tuesday. With more disturbances crossing the area, gusty winds are expected. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS Through 12Z Friday Morning) Issued At 425 AM MST Thu Dec 4 2025 VFR conditions continue today and this evening. Breezy northwest winds are expected north of Interstate 90. An incoming system will bring light snow to portions of the area later tonight. Increasing MVFR/IFR conditions are expected, especially across the Black Hills through northwest South Dakota. && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. WY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...13 AVIATION...13 ####018010278#### FXUS61 KPHI 041126 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 626 AM EST Thu Dec 4 2025 .SYNOPSIS... An arctic cold front will cross through the area this afternoon. Arctic high pressure builds in late tonight into Friday before shifting offshore by Friday night. An area of low pressure tracks to our southeast Friday night with weak high pressure filling in over the weekend. Another cold front passes through late Sunday. High pressure returns for Monday and Tuesday, followed by another low pressure system toward the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... For today, a cold front will pass through the region, ushering in an arctic airmass. While the frontal passage will mainly be dry for most, there may be just enough moisture, lift, and instability to result in a few snow showers along and north of I-80 during the day. While this should generally be not impactful, the snow squall parameter is not zero, so a few squalls reaching the far northern part of our area cannot be ruled out. Otherwise for most, the main impact will be increasing winds as the front passes and in its wake as strong cold-air advection ramps up. Winds increase with gusts around 25-35 MPH expected out of the northwest. Temperatures will be in the mid to upper 30s and low 40s Thursday, but it will certainly feel cooler than that with a brisk northwesterly wind. Behind the front, temperatures will take quite the tumble Thursday night with lows falling into the teens and low-20s for much of the region with single digits across the Poconos and high elevations of northwestern NJ. There will be a wind chill factor as well, however this will be mostly during the evening as the winds are expected to mostly decouple during the night, limiting how low wind chills will get. Some record low temperatures could be challenged for December 5th, especially in the Lehigh Valley and Berks County. Record low temperatures are listed below in the climate section for reference. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... The center of the Arctic high will be located over the lower Hudson Valley on Friday morning and will quickly shift east of Cape Cod later in the afternoon. An impulse aloft will also be arriving later in the day and into Friday night. As it does so, surface low pressure is forecast to develop near Hatteras and track east- northeast into the western Atlantic. For now, no real changes have been made to the forecast, as the onset of precipitation will likely begin as a period of light snow near daybreak on Friday as temperatures will be below freezing. However, as temperatures warm throughout the course of the day, expect a gradual changeover to a mix/plain rain for areas along the immediate coast where highs will rise into the mid to upper 30s. Inland locales however, will likely remain snow as temperatures will remain near or below freezing. The highest PoPs still remain located across the Delmarva and far southern NJ which will be in closer proximity to the developing surface low. One thing to note however, is that with such a dry, albeit cold airmass in place ahead of the low, it is likely that there'll be a sharp cut-off on the northern edge of the precipitation shield. Most guidance insists that the northern edge of the precipitation shield will be near (or just north of) the I-95 corridor, where some guidance such as the (ECMWF) continues to extend the precipitation shield as far north as the southern Poconos. As a result, have opted to trim back accumulations on the northern edge of the system keeping most snow accumulations along and southeast of I-95. Regardless, many areas that did not see accumulation snow earlier in the week, may see their first accumulating snowfall of the season. Accumulations up to one inch is possible; greatest totals over the Delmarva region. By Friday night, the low will quickly depart and move into the western Atlantic causing most precipitation to cease. However, some isolated areas of light snow or rain may linger into Friday night, especially for areas near the coast. In fact, BUFKIT soundings show a subtle warm-nose around 925 mb across portions of the area. This could result in isolated pockets of light freezing rain or freezing drizzle as low-level moisture lingers. For now, have left out any ice accumulation, but will need to monitor this potential with future forecast cycles. Broad high pressure returns on Saturday under a mix of partly to mostly cloudy skies. Temperatures will rebound a bit but will still remain below normal as highs range from mid 30s to mid 40s with lows primarily in the 20s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Synoptic Overview...An upper-level trough is forecast to be across much of eastern Canada Sunday and Monday. This feature looks to extend south across much of the Eastern U.S. especially as stronger shortwave energy transverses along the southern parts of the trough into the Southeast U.S. The trough may weaken Tuesday into Wednesday, however this will depend on if a stronger shortwave dives out of the Midwest Monday night and Tuesday. At the surface, a cold front arrives late Sunday with high pressure sliding across our area Monday into Tuesday. Another area of low pressure then looks to arrive toward the middle part of the week with its associated fronts. For Sunday and Monday...An upper-level trough across much of eastern Canada amplifies southward as shortwave energy rounds its base across the southern states. As this occurs, a cold front looks to cross our area late on Sunday. The moisture associated with this front looks to be quite limited, so outside a stray rain or snow shower, much of the region looks to remain dry. However, this front will deliver another shot of reinforcing cold air. Temperatures are forecast to remain below average, with it being much colder on Monday compared to Sunday. As the axis of high pressure moves across our area Monday night, temperatures are forecast to be very cold with lows in the teens (single digits across the far north). For now, winds do appear to be rather light, so no cold weather headlines look to be warranted. For Tuesday and Wednesday...Despite the main upper-level trough looking like it may flatten toward the middle of the week, a potentially strong shortwave diving out of the Midwest may end up crossing through our area. This feature may support a clipper-type system at the surface, which quickly crosses our area Tuesday night. The moisture is typically limited with these features, however if the mid-level wave is stronger like some guidance suggests then forcing for ascent would be stronger. There is uncertainty with this given all the moving pieces within the parent upper-level trough, therefore did not deviate from NBM guidance which essentially carries a 20-30% chance of light snow across the northern half of the forecast area. Cold/below average temperatures are expected to continue through the middle of the week regardless of the upper pattern. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Thursday...VFR. Winds increasing with a frontal passage between 14z- 16z. West/northwest winds 10-20 kt with gusts around 25 kt. High confidence in prevailing VFR, moderate confidence in timing of frontal passage and winds increasing. Thursday night...VFR. West-northwest winds around 15 kts diminishing below 10 kts late. High confidence. Outlook... Friday through Friday night...Sub-VFR conditions possible with periods of light snow and light rain. Greatest probabilities is along the I-95 corridor terminals south and east. Saturday through Monday...Primarily VFR. Outside of a slight chance of a shower on Saturday, no significant weather is expected. && .MARINE... A Small Craft Advisory goes into effect for all marine zones beginning at 14z. West/northwest winds around 15-25 kt with gusts around 30 kt expected. Seas 3 to 5 feet. SCA conditions decrease through the evening and overnight hours. Outlook... Friday through Sunday...No marine headlines expected. Sunday night through Monday...SCA conditions possible with wind gusts around 25 kt and seas building up to 6 feet. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As a result of the Full Moon phase occuring today, December 4th, areas of spotty minor tidal flooding are possible with upcoming high tide cycles. More prominently, this morning's high tide cycle along the southern New Jersey and Delaware coasts, including parts of the lower Delaware Bay, may observe areas of spotty minor flooding. Additional spotty minor tidal flooding may be observed with Friday and Saturday morning's high tide cycle, but generally expect all gauges to remain below advisory criteria. No other tidal flooding is expected elsewhere. && .CLIMATE... Very cold temperatures are forecast for early Friday morning which may challenge a few record lows. Record Low Temperatures for December 5th... SITE RECORD/YEAR Allentown (ABE) 11/1926 AC Airport (ACY) 11/1966 AC Marina (55N) 15/1901 Philadelphia (PHL) 13/1886 Wilmington (ILG) 12/1926 Reading (RDG) 12/1926 Trenton (TTN) 10/1926 Mount Pocono (MPO) -2/1971 Georgetown (GED) 14/1966 && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ430- 431. Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST tonight for ANZ450>455. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DeSilva/Gorse NEAR TERM...MJL SHORT TERM...DeSilva/Gorse LONG TERM...DeSilva/Gorse AVIATION...DeSilva/MJL MARINE...DeSilva/MJL TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... CLIMATE... ####018006155#### FXUS63 KDMX 041128 AFDDMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Des Moines IA 528 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025 ...Updated for the 12z Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Very cold this morning, with daily record low temperatures a near certainty. See climate section below for record temperature values. - Friday will be more mild, with highs approaching 30 degrees and a light dusting of snow crossing far northern Iowa. - Chances for accumulating snowfall late Saturday through Saturday night have increased to 50-70% across most of the area. Amounts are still uncertain, but there is the potential for several inches in some area. The relatively short duration of the event limits potential for higher amounts, but in any event, travel impacts are increasingly likely. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 205 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025 A large surface high pressure area has settled across the region overnight, bringing clear skies and light winds that are allowing temperatures to fall well below zero this morning. Wind chill values of around 15 to 25 below zero are anticipated, but any readings reaching advisory levels are marginal and fleeting thus no advisory has been issued. Even so, it will be very cold and anyone venturing outside should take appropriate precautions. The high pressure area will slide off to the southeast today, allowing for a return of modest south breezes by this afternoon and bringing relatively milder weather on Friday. Meanwhile, on the synoptic scale, a large gyre is spinning over Hudson Bay and a string of shortwave impulses rounding its western periphery will cross western and southern Canada and the Midwestern U.S. this weekend into early next week, making for a more active weather pattern in our area. The leading impulse in the approaching train is currently located over the Alberta/Saskatchewan border and will eventually cross Minnesota and northern Iowa on Friday. A reflective surface low will cross Minnesota during the day Friday, bringing light to moderate snow north of Iowa and likely just scraping our far northern counties with a quick shot of light snow. Have increased POPs to 30-50% roughly north of Highway 18, mainly Friday morning, but expected accumulations are very light at only a few tenths of an inch or so. A deeper and somewhat more robust trough will cross the region late Saturday through Saturday night, and long-range model solutions have been picking up on this feature for many days now but with varying solutions as to timing and latitudinal extent. With it now only being 2-3 days away the model suite is achieving better resolution and we have a better idea of how things will play out. By Saturday afternoon the 500 MB wave will be crossing eastern South Dakota and Nebraska, with a surface trough extending along the southern High Plains from the Texas panhandle up to the Nebraska/Kansas border. The broad forcing for ascent associated with the shortwave will overlay a band of frontogenetical forcing in the northern/northeastern hemisphere of the developing surface cyclone, generating a swath of snow that will cross our forecast area around Saturday night. The EC has been the most consistent in its track for this storm, with accumulating snow focused across about the northeastern two thirds of Iowa, while the GFS has been more erratic and the NAM has so far been taking things more over the southwestern half of Iowa. In any event, the probability of snowfall in our area is increasing and we are now carrying 50-70% POPs on Saturday evening/night accordingly. Amounts are still uncertain due to variations in the location, elevation and magnitude of frontogenetical forcing as well as the larger storm track, but it is fair to assume a few inches of snow will affect at least portions of the area. The system will be moving through pretty quickly though, which should limit the potential for higher accumulations. We will be closely watching this system over the next couple of days as some travel impacts are likely from late Saturday into early Sunday. The wave train will then continue into the first half of next week, with several more impulses expected between Monday and at least Wednesday, but the details during that time are hazy at this range. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 528 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025 VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. A large area of low stratus clouds, based around FL015-025, is currently blanketing much of Nebraska and eastern South Dakota and has moved very little overnight. These clouds should gradually pivot east and northeastward today, and may reach FOD and MCW from around midday into the afternoon. However, confidence is low and also the ceiling heights within the cloud bank will be rising through the day and may reach VFR levels even by the time they approach FOD. For now have advertised only VFR ceilings there, but if the clouds move more quickly or rise more slowly then MVFR ceilings may be possible. Otherwise, the aviation forecast is quiet through Friday morning. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 205 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025 Forecast and Record Low Temperatures for Select Central Iowa Cities... =============================================== | Wednesday | Period | | Forecast Record/ | of | City | Low Year | Record | =============================================== Des Moines -9 -6/1886 1878- Lamoni -5 2/1991* 1897- Mason City -14 -9/1991 1903- Ottumwa -5 1/2005* 1923- Waterloo -12 -7/1991 1895- =============================================== *Record occurred in multiple years && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Lee AVIATION...Lee CLIMATE...Dodson ####018006996#### FXUS64 KMEG 041128 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 528 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 526 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025 - A low to medium chance (30 to 50%) of a light wintry mix is expected Thursday afternoon and evening across portions of eastern Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel, and northwest Tennessee. Rain, freezing rain, sleet, and snow are all anticipated. - Impacts will be limited to slick bridges, overpasses, and elevated surfaces, which typically freeze first. - Below normal temperatures will persist into next week with highs in the 40s and 50s and lows in the 20s and 30s. && .UPDATE... Issued at 526 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025 Considerable cloud cover has overspread the Mid-South overnight, in response to a quick moving shortwave over the ArkLaMiss. The latest surface analysis places a cold front along the windward side of the Appalachians trailing southwest through Ohio and back into southeast Missouri. This front will continue to push southeast through the Mid-South this afternoon and evening. Temperatures ahead of the front are generally in the low to mid 30s with subfreezing temperatures behind it. The latest local radar scan shows scattered light radar returns over north Mississippi at this hour, which is likely all rain due to temperatures in the mid 30s at the surface. Another shortwave, currently located near the Texas Panhandle, will quickly eject and dampen as it moves through the Lower Mississippi Valley this afternoon. The wave will bring additional moisture into the region this afternoon and evening resulting in wintry weather for much of west Tennessee, the Missouri Bootheel, eastern Arkansas, and extreme northwest Mississippi. With a lot of moving parts and near freezing temperatures, quite a bit of uncertainty remains with respect to precipitation types and location. Nonetheless, areas along and north of I-40, where a wintry mix is most likely, will receive the lightest amounts of precipitation or about one tenth of an inch. Model soundings remain consistent with snow for areas north of I-40, with a wintry mix zone focused along the I-40 corridor, and mainly rain to the south. Little to no accumulations of wintry precipitation as anticipated. The office opted to go with a Special Weather Statement (SPS) for a light wintry mix for areas along and north of the I-40 corridor through midnight tonight. There is a low chance (20%) of a dusting of snow for areas north of I-40. Impacts will be limited to slick roadways, bridges, and overpasses if any accumulations of freezing rain, sleet, or snow do occur. The timing window for wintry weather remains focused around and during the evening commute. The forecast can and will change, so check back often for the latest. AC3 && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Wednesday) Issued at 1012 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025 The first of two features in the near term will start making its way into the region from the ArkLATex during the overnight period. This initial push is most likely going to be just rain, considering it will stay confined to north Mississippi where temperatures will be sitting a few degrees above freezing aided by thick cloud cover. The next push from a more dynamic shortwave system will start as early as noon on Thursday. This second system raises a few more questions about precipitation type and impacts. Digging into the CAMs, point soundings suggest a very shallow warm nose between 700-850 mb during the onset of precip Thursday afternoon. This will make or break precipitation types, especially because the surface temperatures will be hovering at or just above freezing along the I-40 corridor for most of the afternoon. By the time sunset rolls around, the changeover line from a rain/snow mix to just rain will most likely dip a little farther south. Since ground temperatures have been relatively warm, snow is not likely to accumulate tomorrow even in the northernmost counties. The biggest impact will be slick roads from a light dusting of snow, especially on bridges. Elevated surfaces and sidewalks may also become slick, so use extra caution both walking and driving. It's worth noting that the forecast is trending away from freezing rain altogether. The latest probabilities for even a light glaze of ice (0.01") are only around 20% for the chunk of the CWA just north of I-40. This change is most likely due to the column's warm layer not being stout enough to fully melt the ice crystals on the way down. As such, no Winter Weather Advisory was issued with this forecast package. Regardless, roads may still suddenly become slick with rain while temperatures are near freezing. Precip with this shortwave will come to a close no later than sunrise Friday morning. Moving into the weekend, a very weak frontal boundary will support a slight chance (15-20%) of showers on Sunday. Temperatures will be back in the 40s and 50s by this point so winter weather is not a concern over the weekend. Monday and Tuesday finally dry out with high pressure at the surface after the weak cold front finally passes. We end up back in a cool, active, northwesterly flow regime by midweek with another shot at rain starting Wednesday night. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 526 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025 A mixed bag of flight conditions will impact the terminals this cycle ahead of a leading shortwave. Cloud coverage will filter in ahead of precipitation chances and degrade flight conditions to MVFR/IFR. Model soundings near the MEM and MKL terminals do favor a shallow warm nose, but surface temperatures will hover at or just above freezing. To account for uncertainty of the depth of warm nose and surface temperatures, opted for prob30 of a RAPL mix. KJBR is most likely to see SN after 21z, but could have a brief mixture of RASN before the changeover. KTUP will likely remain too warm and see all rain showers. Precipitation aside, guidance is in good agreement with deterioration to LIFR ceilings (300-400 ft) once the shortwave pushes east at all terminals. High pressure will move in and improve cigs. Guidance is already favoring JBR return to VFR by 06z, but given the pattern of the past couple days, opted for a pessimistic delay to around 09z with the other terminals to follow in the next cycle. DNM && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1012 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025 No fire weather concerns for the foreseeable future with MinRH values remaining above 40%. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...CAD AVIATION...DNM ####018004784#### FXUS64 KOHX 041129 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 529 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 529 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025 - A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for portions of the Cumberland Plateau tonight for ice accumulation up to 0.10". - Mixed wintry precipitation is likely across all of Middle TN this evening from roughly 6PM-2AM. Some slick spots may develop tonight. Be cautious when travelling anywhere in the mid state. - Temperatures warm above freezing Friday afternoon. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Friday Night) Issued at 1056 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025 An active 24 to 36 hours is ahead of us as a system stemming from the gulf brings a variety of precip types to Middle TN. There was some concern earlier for a brief bout of wintry precip before sunrise, but profiles don't look like they'll be saturated enough for that to occur. For the main system, CAMs have almost unanimously brought the onset of precip earlier over Middle TN tomorrow. Here's the deal: freezing air from the north will collide with this incoming rain, likely resulting in a mixed bag of winter precip types as the system moves east-northeast and surface temps hover right around freezing. What will initially start as a cool rain as it enters southwest middle TN around 6PM will eventually transition to a mix. IMPACTS: Ice- The area of greatest concern for ice impacts is along the Cumberland Plateau. There is currently a 60% chance of 0.10" of ice accumulation over portions of the plateau. Elsewhere in Middle TN, with there being varied types of precip possible with below-freezing temperatures, slick spots may develop Thursday night/Friday morning, especially over bridges, overpasses, and any sheltered roads. With surface temperatures hovering right around the freezing mark, soundings favor episodes of both sleet and freezing rain along and south of I-40. Snow- Accumulating snowfall probabilities are low overall, with a 30-40% chance of a half-inch falling over portions of northwest middle TN. The HREF paints a large swath of a medium 40-50% chance of a tenth of an inch of snow over the northern half of middle TN. Precip will come to an end by early Friday morning and temperatures will make a run at 40-45 degrees by the afternoon. That's good news if any impacts are felt as that will help melt things off. The whole area will drop near or below freezing again Friday night, but much warmer temperatures on the order of 5 to 10 degrees warmer are in store Saturday with highs in the upper 40s to low 50s. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Thursday) Issued at 1056 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025 Saturday will be dry and cloudy as our next system approaches by Sunday. Widespread low rain chances will return with rain chances between 20-30% Sunday evening. Another invasion of cold air will be left in the wake of this system's exit Monday, and as rain moves off to the east, lingering wraparound moisture could squeeze out a few snowflakes across the plateau Monday morning. Chances of that right now are very low, but will be something to monitor. We will dry out and enjoy a slight warming trend for the first half of next week as temperatures return back to near normal values by Wednesday (mid 50s). Our next system is slated to move through next Thursday. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 529 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025 Conditions will become less than ideal this afternoon into the overnight period. A swath of RASN will enter the area and turn to SN in some areas, but freezing precipitation remains a concern. Ceilings will dip into LIFR territory by 02Z and stay that way through the TAF period. Winds will be light and variable overall, with some places getting a steady north wind around 5 - 10 knots this afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 43 32 47 34 / 40 60 0 0 Clarksville 38 26 44 30 / 30 30 0 0 Crossville 42 31 43 32 / 20 90 20 10 Columbia 44 32 46 31 / 50 80 0 0 Cookeville 41 31 43 33 / 30 80 10 10 Jamestown 41 29 43 32 / 20 80 20 10 Lawrenceburg 44 32 46 32 / 50 80 0 0 Murfreesboro 44 32 46 32 / 40 80 0 0 Waverly 39 27 44 30 / 40 50 0 0 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 2 AM CST Friday for TNZ032>034-065-066. && $$ SHORT TERM...Baggett LONG TERM....Baggett AVIATION.....Holley ####018006388#### FXUS62 KCAE 041129 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 629 AM EST Thu Dec 4 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure then continues to bring cool and dry conditions to the area today. The next storm system approaches late today into tonight with another period of moderate to potentially heavy rainfall on Friday. Unsettled weather continues into the weekend and potentially into early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Key message(s): - Patchy fog this morning expected to burn off quickly after daybreak. - Dry and cool through much of the day, with rain spreading across the area this evening into tonight. Currently, patchy fog is being reported as of 6 am across the forecast area, with a majority of the fog occurring near lakes and rivers. Visibilities have dropped to less than a mile in some locations. Expect this fog to dissipate after sunrise and heating begins. Today and Tonight: A surface low developing over Mexico and western Gulf is forecast to move toward the Southeast today aided by an upper trough digging into the Southern Plains. This trough keeps flow aloft southwesterly, allowing for moisture and some warm air advection to move into the area today. As a result, we are looking to be a few degrees warmer than Wednesday, but under mostly cloudy skies. Shortwave energy moving through the upper flow starts to bring some forcing to the area that is expected to bring shower activity this evening into tonight. Latest hi-res guidance shows some rain possibly reaching the CSRA this afternoon. However, model soundings indicate that there is a lot of dry air to overcome. Therefore, this forecaster is not highly confident in rain occurring, but have gone with a slight chance for rain, with a peak of about 25% chance in the lower CSRA, where forcing does look a little better. That said, if any rain does fall in the afternoon, I expect it to be light. As better forcing moves in overnight, more widespread and consistent rain is expected to move into the region overnight from the southwest to northeast. Some moderate rainfall is possible near daybreak Friday, mainly over the eastern portions of the forecast area. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Key message(s): - Cool temperatures with widespread rain expected Friday. - Chances of rain continue Saturday favoring the southeast Midlands and moderate to heavy at times. A cold but moist air mass will be in place on Friday with high pressure centered over New England riding into the Carolinas. Ensemble PWATs will be 175-200 percent of normal Friday into Saturday supporting widespread rainfall across the forecast area as isentropic lift increases with southwesterly flow atop the low level wedge ahead of an approaching upper trough. Rain is expected to be ongoing at the beginning of the period and reinforcing the developing wedge with well below normal temperatures expected on Friday with highs ranging from the lower 40s north to around 50 in the southeast Midlands, with possibly falling temperatures late Friday. Any winter weather concerns appear to be confined north of our area in northern and western NC, although expecting a cold rain across the area. The combination of warm advection aloft and some shortwave energy will support moderate to heavy rain at times which will continue into Saturday. The best chances of rain on Saturday shift a bit south favoring the area along and south of the I-20 corridor. There is a 50% or higher chance for most locations to receive an inch of rain through Saturday night and a 20-30% chance of some locations in the southeast Midlands and lower CSRA to receive 3 inches of rain. Minor flooding will be possible but widespread flooding is not expected as the rainfall should be spread out over a long enough period of time. Temperatures on Saturday will continue to be below normal and struggle to get into the lower 50s. Lows both nights expected to be in the 30s to lower 40s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Key message(s): - Below normal temperatures continue through the period - Chances of rain continue into Monday then drier weather into mid week Rain chances remain over the forecast area on Sunday with deep southwesterly flow aloft continuing to feed gulf moisture into the region with warm advection and weak shortwave energy moving through the mid level flow while the weak wedge remain in place at the surface. Chances of rain lower on Monday but cannot be eliminated with the ensembles showing an upper trough moving over the forecast area. Rainfall total not expected near as high during this period compared to Fri/Sat. A cold front will move through the forecast area in the wake of the passing shortwave with cold high pressure building into the Carolinas Monday night. NAEFS mean 500mb heights are forecast to be in the 10th percentile early next week and EC EFI hinting at anomalously low temperatures so it appears the below normal temperatures and cool pattern will persist. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Patchy fog dissipates shortly after daybreak followed by VFR conditions into tonight. Then, rain and associated restrictions move into area late tonight. Patchy fog continues to be reported at the terminals, with the lowest visibilities dropping to less than 1SM at times. Expect the fog to burn off shortly after daybreak, roughly by 14z or so. Mid-level clouds begin moving over the area throughout the day, lowering overnight to MVFR and potentially IFR late. In addition, rainfall is forecast to spread across the region from southwest to northeast, affecting all terminals after about 04z-06z and continue through the rest of the TAF period. West to southwest winds around 5 kts are expected this afternoon, becoming light and variable after 00z. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... Restrictions are likely to continue on Friday as rain falls over the area. More restrictions due to rain showers could also be possible this weekend. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$ ####018007128#### FXUS61 KCAR 041129 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 629 AM EST Thu Dec 4 2025 .SYNOPSIS... An Arctic cold front crosses the region today. High pres builds across the region Fri into Sat. A cold front crosses the region Sun. High pres builds toward the region Mon and crosses the region Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Main Points: * Snow squall potential today may cause hazardous travel conditions for the evening commute * Very cold wind chills tonight, with a Cold Weather Advisory for the North Woods into the Central Highlands 630 AM Update: Current surface observations and radar mosaic indicates the arctic front is currently crossing the St. Lawrence River. Simultaneously, current IR satellite imagery has already shown that cloud tops over the St. Lawrence are rapidly cooling, indicating glaciation aloft which can be an indicator of convection at the surface... a precursor to potential squall development. The front should cross into our forecast area within the next 1 to 2 hours. Discussion: An arctic front will approach from the west this morning, crossing through the forecast area through the daylight hours. A prefrontal trough may lead to some early snow showers ahead of the FROPA. That said, the most impactful snow showers will occur along the boundary itself, which will provide the lift necessary to kick off the convective shower development. Weak but nonzero CAPE of 20 to 40 J/kg will fuel these showers, and steep lapse rates around 8 C/km will help mix increasing winds aloft due to a tightening pressure gradient to the surface. Together, these ingredients may lead to scattered moderate to heavy snowfall in any showers that develop. There exists the chance for snow squall development as well, particularly later in the day as the front approaches the eastern border and diurnal heating peaks and winds aloft increase further, increasing the potential for surface gusts to exceed 30 mph. Finally, temperatures around freezing ahead of the cold front will rapidly drop into the single digits by this evening. This quick turn in temperatures could lead to flash freezes, further impacting travel impacts heading into the evening commute today. Strong cold air advection behind the arctic front will lead to winds 15 to 20 mph and gusts as high as 30 to 40 mph, while temperatures dip below zero. Combined, wind chills will approach 20 to 30 below zero in the north, and 10 to 15 below zero Downeast. A Cold Weather Advisory has been issued for the North Woods down into the Central Highlands for these very cold wind chills. Thankfully, temperatures will begin to climb once more Friday morning, and though high temperatures may only lift into the low to mid teens during the day on Friday, winds will gradually decrease and wind chills will quickly drop off into the daylight hours. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Key Messages -Cold Friday night with lows in the single digits High pressure remains overhead Friday night with the arctic airmass expected to persist over the area. This should result in the continuation of anomalously cool temperatures around 10 degrees below normal. With the high centered over us, the lack of a pressure gradient should keep winds light and thus wind chills are not a concern. High pressure gradually exits to the east on Saturday and with it much of the cold air. Temperatures should only be a few degrees below normal Saturday. A weak shortwave approaches from southern New England and is likely to produce some scattered rain showers over the waters and snow showers over the Downeast area during the day. Meanwhile, a cold front will be approaching from Canada and may produce some snow showers over the north late Saturday night. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Key Messages -Arctic air returns Sunday night through Tuesday night with temperatures well below normal The cold front reaches the region Sunday morning and may produce some snow showers over the north early in the day. However, models are not very optimistic on precipitation chances due to a lack of moisture and a rapidly weakening front. Behind the front, a fast moving shortwave may bring some light snow showers to the area Sunday night. Meanwhile, prevailing NW flow is likely to bring another shot of cold arctic air which will send temperatures down to at least the single digits Sunday and Monday night. Luckily, winds should be relatively light so not expecting a major wind chill concern. Temperatures begin a warming trend Tuesday which will continue into mid week. High pressure prevails Tuesday with the chance for another system Wednesday but models are expressing uncertainty in how that would evolve. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NEAR TERM: Generally VFR conditions will last through the day today, into tonight, and through the day on Friday. Brief periods of IFR/LIFR possible during the day today in snow showers, some of which may be squalls containing heavy squalls. Most likely time for LIFR in SHSN is after 13z and prior to 18z, and these conditions are most likely over northern terminals, though there remains a chance for moderate to heavy snow showers at all terminals today. SW winds 5 to 10 kts shift NW behind a cold front through midday, increasing to 10 to 15 kts and gusting 25 to 35 kts through tonight. Winds decrease, becoming SW 5 to 10 kts by Friday afternoon. SHORT TERM: Friday night...VFR. Light SW winds early becoming light and variable. Saturday...VFR early, then VFR/MVFR with snow showers, especially for southern terminals. S/SE winds around 5 knots. Saturday night...VFR/MVFR with chance snow showers early. Light and variable winds. Sunday...VFR/MVFR with isolated snow showers northern terminals. W/NW winds 5 to 10 knots. Sunday night...VFR/MVFR with chance snow showers. NW winds 5 to 10 knots. Monday...VFR. W/NW winds 5 to 10 knots. Monday night...VFR. W wind around 5 knots. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: A gale warning remains in effect beginning this afternoon as gusts increase to 40 to 45 kts and seas increase to 6 to 9 ft. Conditions improve to below small craft advisory criteria by midday Friday. SHORT TERM: Winds decrease from small craft advisory criteria Friday night. Winds and seas below small craft advisory criteria through Sunday. Winds increase to above SCA criteria Sunday night through Monday. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...Cold Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 8 AM EST Friday for MEZ001-003-004-010. MARINE...Gale Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Friday for ANZ050>052. && $$ Near Term...AES Short Term...SM Long Term...SM Aviation...AES/SM Marine...AES/SM ####018005954#### FXUS63 KAPX 041129 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 629 AM EST Thu Dec 4 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Accumulating snow across the E UP comes to an end through the day. - Another shot for accumulating snow later tonight into early Friday, main focus across E UP. - Periodic shots of cold air and lake enhanced snow chances heading into the weekend and beyond. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 258 AM EST Thu Dec 4 2025 Pattern Synopsis and Forecast: Vigorous upper trough will continue to dig to the east today with time, first across the northern Great Lakes this morning, then east across Quebec through the rest of the day. Accumulating lake effect snow showers will continue for the E UP today, especially as the upper trough digs to the southeast and convergence shifts southward during the first half of the day. Next piece of energy to riddle the forecast with snow will be a quick moving short wave and associated low pressure system across Ontario later tonight. As this system approaches, southwest flow will diminish any northwest lake effect. Primary Forecast Concerns: Accumulating Snow: Lake effect snow showers will continue across the eastern UP early today. There will be a period this morning and midday with accumulating snows for northern portions of Chippewa county, as the better convergence drifts southward. Thus, an additional ~1-4 inches of snow will be possible across northern Chipp, highest amounts likely within a narrow NNW to SSE oriented band within the vicinity of the SOO. Cold low level temperature profiles may result in lesser accumulations for a period, but potential for significant visibility reductions for the morning commute. Shifting winds will end the northwest lake effect through the afternoon hours. Combination of short wave aloft and warm advection will result in a little burst of snowfall later tonight into the early portions of Friday. Best lower level convergence and upper lift will be across the eastern UP, with a couple of inches possible (~1-3"). Breezy conditions will remain as well and thus poor vsbys will be possible due to falling and patchy blowing snow. Cold Temperatures: Cold temperatures are expected this morning, and tonight as well. Values drop into the teens and single digits for most, with even lower wind chill values. Expect apparent temperatures to be below zero for many this morning, close to zero tonight. Actual air temps little tricky tonight with southerly flow in advance of the next system. Might be a deal where the sheltered, interior locations see single digits with teens for coastal locations, esp near lake MI. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 258 AM EST Thu Dec 4 2025 Day 2-3 (Friday - Saturday): Short wave and warm advection induced snows will continue early on Friday, replaced to some extent by another short wave farther south moving across LM and C-S MI later in the day and into the night. This will result in more snow showers across northern MI, emphasis on the lake effect and enhancement regions of northwest lower and eastern upper. Not a huge signal for significant impacts, with likely just some lighter snowfall amounts (a few inches) and snow showers through the day on Friday and Saturday. Days 4-7 (Sunday - Wednesday): Another upper trough descends upon the great white north of Ontario later this weekend with another shot of cold air and thus lake enhanced/effect snows. Perhaps slightly more notable will be the overnight low temperatures Sunday night into Monday morning with single digits expected, with some of the cold spots possibly dipping below zero. NBM hinting at this possibility with low probs (10-40%) for at or below zero low temperatures across the interior in northern lower (other statistical guidance, namely MEX, has GOV at a bitter -10F). Another trough looks to dive down across the Great Lakes region sometime early to mid next week with another shot for snow. Quick and dirty long range look suggests the potential for at least a couple inches of lake enhanced snow, but that will ultimately depend on the location and orientation of the trough as our wintry period continues. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 629 AM EST Thu Dec 4 2025 Heavy lake effect snow is expected to work into CIU at times through the morning, reducing VSBYs to IFR/LIFR over the next several hours before the band eventually tapers off this afternoon. Much weaker lake effect snow showers south of the bridge will also diminish through the morning hours and are unlikely to result in categorical- change VSBY reductions at northern lower TAF sites. While most sites are currently VFR, CIGs look to continue to improve across the area throughout the day. Gusty northwest winds will weaken temporarily as they turn to west winds this afternoon, and quickly increase again out of the southwest tonight. Snow chances return to the eastern U.P. and far northern lower late in the issuance period, likely reducing CIGs and VSBYs at CIU prior to 12Z Friday. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Winter Storm Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for MIZ086- 087. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for LHZ345>349. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for LMZ323- 341-342-344>346. Gale Warning from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Friday for LMZ323-341-342-344>346. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for LSZ321- 322. && $$ SHORT TERM...JLD LONG TERM...JLD AVIATION...DJC ####018007847#### FXUS64 KLIX 041130 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 530 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 516 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025 1. An area of low pressure near the coast will bring widespread rain and embedded thunderstorms to the area Thursday morning through Saturday morning. 3-day rainfall totals will generally be 1.5" to 3" along the I-10/12 corridor with locally higher amounts as high as 6" especially west of I-55. 2. There is a marginal threat of excessive rainfall with this system particularly on Thursday where locally higher rain totals of 2" to 4" in a approximately 6 hour period could result in flash flooding of urban and poor drainage areas. Locally higher amounts upwards of 5" cannot be ruled out. Exact location of heaviest rainfall axis will be tied to the progress of the surface low and associated convection, but the Baton Rouge metro area appears to be the primary area of concern as it pertains to flooding of urban and poor drainage areas with this rainfall. 3. The slow-moving frontal boundary associated with this low will clear land areas Thursday night. Drier air filtering in will lower rainfall rates and reduce the risk for excessive rainfall and flash flooding. Additional rainfall of up to 3" could occur mainly along and east of the I-55 corridor. However, most areas are likely (>50%) to see between 0.5" and 1.5" with scattered shower activity Friday through Saturday. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Saturday) Issued at 1036 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025 Warm front convection in association with a trough of low pressure near Corpus Christ, TX (as of 0300 UTC) has created a large area of showers and storms across SW LA and Vermillion Bay. Stratiform from this deepening convection continues to spread northeast and light rain will begin across western areas within the next couple of hours. Dew point temperatures remain in the 40s across most of the CWA, but the atmosphere is expected to moisten rapidly as the warm front encroaches on the LA coast early Thursday. The discrepancy in moistening between LIX (PWAT 0.81") and LCH (PWAT 1.45") 00 UTC soundings illustrates where each location was in this moistening process earlier tonight. Dew points will rise into the 50s to low 60s on the immediate coast and PWAT values will exceed the 90th percentile (1.52") and may approach daily maximum (1.92") as dry layers aloft mix out and yield a much more conducive environment for efficient rainfall rates exceeding 2" per hour. Latest CAM guidance has overall trended faster with onset of rainfall, but remains in some disagreement regarding where the axis of heaviest rainfall will occur. HREF guidance is heavily skewed toward the aggressive NAM 3KM solution of a heavy band of rainfall stretching from Lake Charles through Donaldsonville later this morning while other guidance such as the RAP and HRRR suggest that heavier rainfall could be in the form of a band north of Baton Rouge and one closer to the Louisiana coast in association with the surface convergence of the surface trough. The latest forecast attempts to blend these solutions and focuses on heaviest rainfall occurring along the I-10/12 corridor in Louisiana on Thursday though additional revisions could be made as the event gets going later this morning. Gist is locally heavier rainfall with this convection could cause flash flooding of urban and poor drainage areas. The surface trough will continue to push eastward across the coastal waters during the day Thursday and gradually take away additional surface forcing needed to sustain new convective development. Additionally, slightly drier air aloft will bring PWATs down closer to the 90th percentile and yield less efficient rainfall rates. This should gradually reduce the excessive rainfall risk from west to east across the area on Thursday evening into Friday morning. While the surface forcing mechanism will scoot off to the east, forcing aloft associated with persistent southwesterly flow of the longwave trough over the central CONUS will continue to provide enough lift to squeeze out showers and a couple of elevated storms on Friday into Saturday. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Wednesday night) Issued at 1036 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025 The fire hose of rainfall will gradually taper off into Saturday night as a final shortwave trough lifts out with the broader longwave trough into the eastern CONUS and mid-upper flow pivots from southwest to northwest. This will allow for a more proper frontal passage on Sunday night and bring colder temperatures surface high pressure back across the area to start next week. Model uncertainty remains regarding the next shot of cold air early next week, but the average forecast calls for temperatures near freezing for SW MS at this time. Additional attention will be brought to this if confidence increases in freezing conditions across more of the area in future forecast packages. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 516 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025 Most of the day and tonight will remain in IFR and some LIFR levels. Basically an all day OVC and/or SHRA with a few rolls of thunder mixed in. A few times of MVFR outside areas of rainfall but that won't last too long before cigs and vis fall back again. && .MARINE... Issued at 1036 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025 A weak area of low pressure will gradually drift east across the Louisiana Coast on Thursday. This will tighten the pressure gradient especially east of the Mississippi River delta. Winds will increase with moderate to strong east-southeast to easterly winds. This will have multiple impacts with Small Craft Advisory conditions expected Thursday into Friday. Winds will relax and return to offshore late Friday and then more variable on Saturday with the passage of another weak sfc low. A frontal passage on Sunday night will bring another push of strong offshore winds on Monday which could prompt small craft headlines for much of the coastal waters. In addition to the small craft impacts, the increase in onshore winds will combine with the increasing tidal cycle at the end of the week and lead to some minor coastal flooding. Main concern will be east facing shores of Orleans, St Bernard, Plaquemines, and far southeastern St Tammany. In addition coastal Hancock around Waveland will also deal with some minor coastal flooding Thursday night through Friday morning. The tide cycle will remain elevated into the weekend and additional minor coastal flooding cannot be ruled out. Additional headlines may be needed if the forecast high tide increases any further above 1 foot MHHW. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 49 42 51 43 / 100 90 50 50 BTR 54 44 53 45 / 100 80 50 60 ASD 56 43 56 45 / 100 80 60 70 MSY 60 50 58 51 / 100 80 60 70 GPT 56 48 57 48 / 100 80 70 70 PQL 55 45 58 45 / 100 70 70 70 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Friday for LAZ070-076-078. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Friday for GMZ530-532-534- 536-538-555-557-577. MS...Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Friday for MSZ086-087. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Friday for GMZ532-534-536- 538-555-557-577. && $$ SHORT TERM...TJS LONG TERM....TJS AVIATION...TE MARINE...TJS