####018004878#### FXUS64 KLCH 041130 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 530 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - A coastal low developing and moving up the Texas gulf coast will usher continued precipitation through this evening with the heavier axis of precipitation sliding over the lower Atchafalaya Friday - An approaching cold front will keep precipitation lingering through early Saturday with milder air filtering in through early Sunday - Dry and cool conditions expected Monday through the midweek as a stronger high pressure airmass moves into the region. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday night) Issued at 529 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025 A trough of coastal low pressure is traversing the northern Gulf Coast toward lower Alabama. 00Z evening sounding measured PWAT's along the 90th percentile indicating some showers and occasional thunder may produce very efficient rain rates through the morning and afternoon hours. While flood watch is not in place, criteria do come close and it is expected that ponding in urban or low lying streets or ditches may occur in the typical nuisance spots. That said a Marginal risk for excessive rainfall remains in place for lower LA today and tomorrow. Worth noting heaviest signals between probabilistic and deterministic guidance suggest areas along the coast below I-10 and into the Atchafalaya have better potentials to receive higher amounts. Friday remnant portions of the coastal trough will still hang along the coast or just offshore allowing at least of morning potential for excessive rainfall- mainly along Acadiana and east. With the frontal boundary offshore yet still a fair amount of surface moisture present, do expect Friday to be cool with highs in the lower 50's given the absence of sunshine a modest CAA out of the north. As high pressure broadens southward from the central Plains, we'll continue to see chilly lows in the upper 30's and low 40's through Saturday morning. A few showers may still be scattered along the coast toward the Atchafalaya, but likely diminish by early afternoon. Hereafter, weak southeast advection takes place allowing a gradual warm up in the mid afternoon to the low 60's. Kowalski / 30 && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 529 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025 The long range calls for a quick warm up Sunday with the stronger influence from the marine layer advecting inland and clearing skies. However, this mild weather will be short lived with an incoming dry high pressure airmass descending south through the Heartland. Winds will shift back out of the north by the afternoon and continue to increase offshore through Monday. Worth noting dry air will accompany this regime keeping the extended forecast dry through Wednesday while high pressure broadens toward Florida re- establishing onshore flow and milder temperatures toward the the midweek. Kowalski / 30 && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 529 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025 Heavy rain is moving across south Louisiana this morning and will continue to move east. Stratus and scattered showers will remain in place through the remainder of the period with IFR ceilings likely. Winds will be north to northeast. && .MARINE... Issued at 529 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025 Winds will gradually shift out of the north today through late Saturday with widespread, later decreasing to scattered precipitation occurring in the meanwhile. Strong offshore winds will build seas are expected to today in the vicinity of the center of the coastal low before abating late Friday as the low pushes off to the east. Drier conditions and light to moderate offshore winds will prevail from Sunday through early next week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 529 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025 As coastal low shifts east winds return out of the NE and increase this afternoon with scattered to widespread rain chances into Friday afternoon. Precipitation chances gradually diminish Saturday with cooler drier air pushing back into the region Sunday on northerly winds behind a passing cold front. In the meanwhile minimum RH keeps to around 60% or greater. Going forward into early next week, afternoon RH drops further toward 45-55% range. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 49 36 49 40 / 90 50 30 40 LCH 57 42 52 46 / 90 40 50 40 LFT 57 43 52 45 / 100 60 50 60 BPT 59 42 54 46 / 90 30 40 40 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM....30 AVIATION...05 ####018005097#### FXUS62 KFFC 041130 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 630 AM EST Thu Dec 4 2025 ...New 12Z Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 626 AM EST Thu Dec 4 2025 - The potential for any wintry precipitation this morning through early Friday remains very low. - A frontal boundary will bring waves of rainfall to North and Central Georgia through the weekend. - Rainfall totals ranging 1-3 inches are forecast with the highest totals concentrated mainly south of I-20. Totals less than 1 inch are forecast for North Georgia. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 249 AM EST Thu Dec 4 2025 Mostly high clouds streaming across the area this morning, with the next wave to affect GA developing along the LA Gulf coast. This next wave will continue to deepen this morning as it moves NE and pushes precip into SW GA right after daybreak. Temps this morning will continue to fall into the lower to middle 30s but the temps should begin to climb just enough after sunrise that we should only see a very brief period of mixed precipitation if any at all at the onset of the rain moving in. This wave/front moves East across the area Today setting up good moisture flow to continue from the gulf into the weekend. The main frontal boundary sets up and stalls over central GA so looks like the best moisture flow will traverse across that area. This will bring a good 2" to 3" of precipitation to portions of central GA through Sat with 0.5" to 1.5" totals across north GA. Instabilities are very weak with this system so not expecting much in the way of thunderstorms Today. We could see an isolated thunderstorm or two Friday close to the frontal boundary across central GA, but again, inability is weak so no severe storms expected. Temps will get up into the upper 40s to middle 50s Today and Friday with lows dipping down into the upper 30s to lower 40s Tonight. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 249 AM EST Thu Dec 4 2025 The long term picks up on Friday Night/Saturday morning with a frontal boundary stalled across Central Georgia. With nothing to push the boundary out of the region, it will stick around and be the focus for waves of rainfall through the weekend. As mentioned in the previous forecast, this much needed rainfall will act to ease drought conditions across the state. While we are not too concerned with widespread flooding, WPC has painted a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall on Friday and Saturday for portions of Central GA. Any training of showers or heavier showers could lead to some localized nuisance flooding. Persistent cloud cover and rainfall will keep temperatures on the cooler side through the weekend. Forecast highs will be in the upper 40s in the mountains and 50s elsewhere. Forecast lows will be in the upper 30s to the north and 40s across Central GA. The highest elevations in northeast GA may briefly approach or dip slightly below freezing each night. It's not until the main mid-level trough and another strong cold front moves across the Southeast between Sunday and Monday that rainfall will start to come to an end. Cooler and drier air will start to filter back into the area early next week with overnight temperatures dipping back near or below freezing for many locations Monday and Tuesday night. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 626 AM EST Thu Dec 4 2025 Mostly high clouds across the area this morning. Will see increased mid to low clouds later this morning/afternoon with precip moving in also. The CSG and MCN areas will see precip move in shortly after daybreak but the ATL/AHN area TAF sites wont see any until after 00z Fri. Ceilings will stay mainly in the MVFR range until precip moves in then ceilings go down into the MVFR to IFR range. Once the rain begins expecting it to continue through the TAF period. Winds will start out of the NW then turn to the NE as the precip moves in. Wind speeds will stay in the 2-8kt range through the period. //ATL Confidence...12Z Update... Confidence medium to high on all elements. 01 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 52 40 46 39 / 30 90 90 40 Atlanta 49 41 48 43 / 40 100 90 40 Blairsville 49 35 45 35 / 20 90 70 30 Cartersville 49 37 49 39 / 30 100 70 30 Columbus 51 43 54 45 / 80 90 90 70 Gainesville 52 40 46 40 / 20 90 90 30 Macon 52 42 52 43 / 70 90 100 70 Rome 52 40 52 42 / 30 100 60 20 Peachtree City 49 39 50 41 / 50 100 90 50 Vidalia 56 45 54 47 / 60 80 100 80 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...01 LONG TERM....07 AVIATION...01 ####018008878#### FXUS62 KTAE 041131 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 631 AM EST Thu Dec 4 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 625 AM EST Thu Dec 4 2025 - Widespread rainfall totals of 1" to 4" are possible, with higher amounts forecast along and north of a line from near Panama City, FL to Valdosta, GA. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight) Issued at 250 AM EST Thu Dec 4 2025 The first wave of rain is currently in Louisiana this morning, trudging along the northern Gulf coast. However, we're very dry aloft with satellite derived precipitable water values (PWATs) hovering between 0.6" to 0.9" across the region, so it'll take a bit of time to saturate the column to allow rain to reach the ground. Rain will move from west to east across the area later this morning into the afternoon and keep temperatures in the upper 40s to lower 50s this afternoon for much of the area outside of the Florida Big Bend, where you'll bask in the upper 60s to near 70 as the rain is not forecast to reach y'all today. The subtle H5 shortwave providing today's rain is forecast to scoot northeast of the area later this afternoon into tonight and is expected to bring a bit of a break from the rain. As such, have elected to lower rain chances tonight from the NBM and go with more of an HREF/NBM blend for POPs. A warm front crawls north later tonight as a weak surface low inches closer to us. Combine this with ample cloud cover and temperatures are forecast to hover in the upper 40s to near 50 much of the night, especially for our Florida counties, before warming before sunrise Friday. Rain chances will increase in the pre-dawn hours Friday as the surface low approaches. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 250 AM EST Thu Dec 4 2025 Several waves of rain move over the region through the weekend. A few thunderstorms are forecast for Friday, mainly across our Florida counties, as an area of low pressure meanders through. The heaviest rain for much of the area is forecast to happen late Saturday into Sunday as another disturbance rolls overhead. A cold front pushes all of the rain out of the area on Monday. As mentioned in the short term discussion, an area of low pressure inches closer to our area Friday and move inland as it slowly weakens. There's a brief window for a few thunderstorms, one or two may be strong, thanks to ample shear and some elevated instability; the best opportunity for that will be along the immediate coast into the Florida Big Bend. While the highest chances for thunderstorms are across our Florida counties, a few may make it into some of our southern Alabama and Georgia counties depending on how far inland the surface low is able to make it. Rain continues Friday night into Saturday, especially for our Georgia and Alabama counties, as the aforementioned surface low leaves a stalled front nearby in the northeastern Gulf/northern Florida. Another weak surface low rides along the stalled front Saturday into Sunday and provide additional lift for even more rain, maybe a rumble of thunder or two along the coast. PWATs of 1.6" to 1.8" are forecast over the region and are near record values for early December. The mean LCL-EL wind direction will be about 230-240 degrees, or about parallel to the front. Add in the weak surface low and some of the rain may be locally heavy Saturday night into Sunday. A solid 1" to 3" of rain is forecast during this time period alone with a 10% chance of exceeding 4 inches in a 24 hour period from Saturday afternoon through Sunday afternoon. This could lead to localized flooding concerns, especially if storm drains get clogged by any debris/leaves. By the time all is said and done, widespread rainfall totals of 1" to 4" are currently expected with the lower amounts across the SE Florida Big Bend and generally 2" to 4" elsewhere. There is a low (10%) chance of isolated rainfall amounts exceeding 6" over the next few days. A cold front clears the area on Monday, taking the rain with it. Cooler temperatures await us early next week with lows back in the 30s Tuesday and Wednesday morning and daytime highs struggling to get out of the 50s with ample sunshine. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 625 AM EST Thu Dec 4 2025 Light rain is slightly ahead of schedule, so upped the timing of the rain for KECP, KDHN, and KABY this morning. Heavier radar returns are bringing brief IFR ceilings to sites that experience them, but confidence wasn't high enough that they'd impact any of our TAF sites this morning, so kept TEMPO groups out of the TAFs for now. Otherwise, VFR to MVFR conditions are anticipated as light rain spreads across the region. Hi-res guidance is suggesting another batch of rain across the KTLH and KVLD aerodromes later this afternoon. Slightly drier conditions are forecast later tonight into early Friday morning, but clouds hold tough. Felt most confident in IFR ceilings for KABY and KDHN and included some drizzle in case the batch of rain forecast for central AL/GA tonight ends up a bit farther south than forecast. Also, there is a very low chance (less than 10%) of some fog for KVLD tonight after 06Z. Decided to leave that out of the TAFs with this package as confidence wasn't nearly high enough, but felt it's worth mentioning here for planning purposes. && .MARINE... Issued at 250 AM EST Thu Dec 4 2025 Easterly winds today increase to Cautionary levels for the Gulf waters west of Apalachicola. Winds clock around to the south on Friday as an area of low pressure moves across the northern Gulf Coast with Cautionary level winds anticipated for the Gulf waters. Multiple rounds of showers and a few thunderstorms are forecast through the weekend as a stationary front lingers over the northeastern Gulf. A cold front swings through the northeastern Gulf on Monday, bringing an end to the rain. Northerly winds develop behind the cold front and near Advisory levels for the Gulf waters west of Apalachicola. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 250 AM EST Thu Dec 4 2025 Rain arrives from west to east throughout the day today with multiple rounds of rain forecast Friday, Saturday, and Sunday. Dispersions will remain low through the weekend before a cold front clears the rain out of the forecast later Sunday into Monday. Rainfall amounts on the order of 1 to 4 inches are forecast for much of the region, with the lower amounts anticipated across the SE Florida Big Bend and higher amounts the more north and west you go from there. There is a low (10%) chances of localized rainfall amounts exceeding 6 inches if the right conditions align. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 250 AM EST Thu Dec 4 2025 The first of multiple rounds of rain arrives later today. Additional rounds are forecast Friday, Saturday, and Sunday. The time period to watch for the heaviest rain continues to be Saturday into Sunday. Widespread rainfall totals of 1" to 4" are forecast across much of the region through the weekend with lower-end amounts for the southeast Florida Big Bend. There is a very low (less than 10%) chance of isolated locations picking up more than 6 inches of rain between now and Sunday night. Fortunately, the riverine flood threat is rather low at this time as much of the rain falling across Alabama and Georgia should be more stratiform in nature and very beneficial. Meanwhile, a few convective downpours are forecast across Florida, mainly along and south of I-10, and could lead to localized flash flooding should they train over our more urban areas. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 55 50 71 53 / 60 60 90 60 Panama City 56 50 71 53 / 70 50 90 70 Dothan 49 45 57 48 / 90 60 90 80 Albany 50 45 57 48 / 80 60 100 80 Valdosta 54 48 70 51 / 50 40 90 70 Cross City 70 52 77 58 / 10 10 50 50 Apalachicola 63 54 73 57 / 50 40 80 60 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Reese LONG TERM....Reese AVIATION...Reese MARINE...Reese FIRE WEATHER...Reese HYDROLOGY...Reese ####018005762#### FXUS63 KFSD 041132 AFDFSD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 532 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - A very cold morning with wind chills as cold as -25 east of the James River and to -15 west of the James River. - Wind gusts nearing 40 mph this afternoon over southwest Minnesota and nearby parts of eastern South Dakota and northwest Iowa will lead to patchy blowing snow. Please use extra caution on the roads. - Light precipitation is expected late tonight into Friday evening with minor accumulations. A mix of precipitation could lead to minor accumulations. - Confidence is increasing in the potential for accumulating snowfall Saturday into Saturday night, as models come into more agreement. Chances for at least an inch of snow are high (over 70%). Guidance still varies on where the heaviest snowfall may fall. If you have travel plans, keep an eye on the forecast. - Cold, below normal temperatures are expected to continue through the weekend, with signs of temperatures moderating closer to normal next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 301 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025 TODAY: Surface high slides east through this morning. Guidance continues to handle stratus poorly west of the James River, which has been moderating temperatures somewhat in this area. 2 AM temperatures are below zero for most, with wind chills in the teens to mid 20s below. Still may see some locations east of I-29 briefly drop below Cold Weather Advisory criteria, but have remained headline free given marginal and brief conditions. We should warm into the teens (east) to mid 30s (south central SD). WAA increases today, and we'll see a tightening surface pressure gradient as well as increased mixing. This allows for a breezier day, with southerly winds gusting around 35 to 40 mph - strongest in our higher elevations of the Buffalo Ridge. Main concern with these stronger wind gusts will be the potential for blowing snow. Blowing snow could lead to locally reduced visibility and patchy slick spots so be prepared for changing conditions this afternoon and evening. TONIGHT-FRIDAY: Raised pops and QPF from the NBM with guidance coming into better agreement with light precipitation thanks to a stronger mid level wave and a surface boundary moving through the area after midnight and into Friday. However, there are still some questions regarding how much we'll saturate the column and in the DGZ, so could see some light freezing rain or freezing drizzle. Light precipitation looks to be largely be focused along and north of I-90 into northwestern IA. Any accumulations through the day Friday and into Friday night remain light, less than half an inch. Lows tonight fall into the teens and 20s with highs Friday in the 30s. SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT: Models are coming into more agreement with a stronger wave/trough swinging through the central Plains Saturday into Saturday night. The 04.00 GFS/NAM remain the furthest south with the precipitation, while the Canadian is further north and the ECMWF is in the middle. Differences seem to largely be from where the surface warm front and moisture advection end up. The increased agreement is now reflected in the ensemble data as well, with a significant increase in the chances for a tenth of an inch of precipitation from 15-35% with the 03.00z runs to 55-85% with the 04.00z ensemble data. Similar increases can also be seen in the potential for more than 0.25" during the same period. Again, there are still varied in the location of the heaviest precipitation, but certainly watch the forecast if you have travel plans. Chances for an inch of snowfall are high (over 65%), and for 2" inches are moderate to high (40-70%). Chances for greater than 4" of snow are low (less than 30%). However, this may still change. Much colder air returns Saturday night with lows below zero. SUNDAY: Much colder air continues region Sunday with high pressure returning. Highs may not exceed the single digits east of I-29, with the teens elsewhere. Some guidance shows brief but light snow Sunday, but confidence is low in this potential. Another cold night Sunday night, in the single digits either side of zero. MONDAY-MID WEEK: Northwesterly flow regime keeps a more active pattern in place early to mid next week. Strongest wave is currently progged to move through Tuesday night into Wednesday, which could bring light precipitation back to the region. Details are uncertain. Regardless, below to near average temperatures continue through mid week. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 525 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025 An area of MVFR stratus continues to meander east toward the I-29 corridor this morning. As has been recent trends, guidance continues to handle this poorly. Have added MVFR mention to KFSD and KSUX, although confidence is low in how long this will stick around and how far east stratus extends. Southerly winds increase today with gusts 20 to 30 knots, with some gusts to 35 knots along the higher elevations of the Buffalo Ridge, where blowing snow could lead to some reduced visibility. May see some marginal LLWS, with the strongest part of the LLJ over KSUX into northwestern IA this evening. Winds taper down and shift to southwesterly late tonight into Friday morning. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...SG AVIATION...SG ####018006257#### FXUS64 KFWD 041133 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 533 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Today will be cool and cloudy behind last night's cold front. Occasional light rain and drizzle are expected across much of the area today. Some patchy fog will continue across portions of Central Texas this morning. - Near-normal temperatures return Friday and continue through the weekend into early next week. Above normal temperatures will return mid to late next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 520 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025 Patchy light rain and drizzle continues across the region, with some lingering patchy fog across our southern zones this morning. Scattered showers have moved into western North Texas early this morning, so PoPs were expanded a bit further north to account for this activity. Fortunately, temperatures are well above freezing across the entire forecast area, so any wintry precipitation will remain to our north/northwest. Otherwise, the previous forecast remains in good shape. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Friday) Issued at 1226 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025 Occasional light rain, patchy drizzle, and patchy fog will continue across the region for the remainder of the night, with drizzle/light rain expected to expand in coverage as we get closer to daybreak. Dense fog has been very isolated, so we'll continue to hold off on a Dense Fog Advisory and monitor trends through the remainder of the night. A strong cold front will continue moving southward, with northerly winds becoming breezy over the next several hours. While temperatures may get relatively close to the 32 degree mark in western North Texas, they should stay comfortably above freezing, keeping a cold rain or drizzle as the predominant precipitation type. Persistent isentropic ascent over the shallow, cold, post-frontal airmass will allow rain and patchy drizzle to continue through much of the day. The cold air combined with overcast skies will make for a rather chilly and dreary day, with high temperatures remaining in the 40s areawide. Any ongoing rain/drizzle this afternoon will gradually end from west to east as drier air finally filters into the region. Low clouds will persist into the evening, likely not clearing out for most areas until after sunset. However, dense cirrus will keep skies cloudy through most of the period. A light freeze is expected across much of North Texas Thursday night into Friday morning, with the exception of the DFW Metroplex. Overnight lows will range from the upper 20s near the Red River to upper 30s in the Brazos Valley. Light southerly winds will return on Friday, with cloud cover sticking around for much of the day, especially across Central and East Texas. This will result in a decent west to east temperature spread Friday afternoon, with highs in the upper 40s/low 50s in Central and East Texas and in the upper 50s/low 60s across our western zones. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 1226 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025 A bit of a temperature rollercoaster is expected this weekend through mid to late next week, but rain chances will remain near zero. Sunny skies will return on Saturday, with a brief warm up expected as high temperatures climb into the upper 50s to upper 60s. A few locations in western North and Central Texas could even see highs in the low 70s. This warm up will be short-lived, as another cold front will move through the region Saturday night. A dry frontal passage is expected with the weekend front, as moisture will not have sufficiently recovered. Cooler temperatures in the 50s to low 60s are expected both Sunday and Monday behind the front with low temperatures in the mid 20s to low 30s likely for much of the area Monday morning. Temperatures will moderate from Tuesday onward, with afternoon highs returning to the 60s and low 70s by the middle of next week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 520 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025 IFR ceilings have lifted to MVFR across North Texas as expected. VFR has been intermittent at a few of the terminals over the past hour or two, but still expect MVFR conditions to prevail through the morning and part of the afternoon. Patchy rain/drizzle has been slow to develop across North Texas and has been rather hit- or-miss in Central Texas. However, we're starting to see a slight uptick in this activity, so we'll keep DZ/VCSH in the TAFs for now. LIFR and DZ/RA continue at KACT, but ceilings should lift to MVFR later this morning, likely when any precip comes to an end. Guidance has trended a bit more optimistic with ceiling trends this afternoon, but kept TAFs slightly on the pessimistic side for now. Ceilings will see some improvements around midday/early afternoon, with VFR expected to return sometime between 21-00Z at all terminals. North winds around 15 knots this morning will weaken through the afternoon, becoming light this evening. Light southerly winds are expected to return Friday morning, with wind speeds at or below 5 knots. Guidance still keeps any ceilings well east of the terminals tonight/Friday morning, so VFR is expected to continue through the end of the period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 45 34 54 40 / 30 0 0 0 Waco 49 37 52 42 / 40 0 10 0 Paris 44 31 49 35 / 40 0 0 0 Denton 44 29 54 35 / 20 0 0 0 McKinney 44 30 52 38 / 30 0 0 0 Dallas 47 35 54 41 / 30 0 0 0 Terrell 47 33 52 39 / 40 0 0 0 Corsicana 49 37 53 43 / 50 10 10 10 Temple 50 37 54 42 / 40 10 10 0 Mineral Wells 47 30 60 36 / 20 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Barnes LONG TERM....Barnes AVIATION...Barnes ####018004495#### FXUS66 KPDT 041135 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 335 AM PST Thu Dec 4 2025 .DISCUSSION...Fog still lingers throughout parts of the Foothills of the Blues and Kittitas Valley through the rest of the morning. Precaution should be given in areas of very dense fog and freezing fog. Even given the stratus cloud cover, temperatures will efficiently cool enough, thanks to light winds, to bring saturation in many areas, especially the lower valleys, plumes of fog through the night. We'll continue to see temperatures drop region wide to below freezing, with lower valleys have a bit shorter on the confidence side that they'll drop below freezing and instead hover around the low to mid 30s (40-60% chance for Valleys staying above freezing, and >85% chance for higher elevations dropping below freezing). Otherwise, upper level dry northwest winds will keep conditions dry for the rest of the night. Unsettled weather continues later in the late morning hours to early afternoon when a trough deepens in central Canada, allowing shortwaves to form valley rain and snow/wintry mix in the higher elevations. We'll have a constant stream of instability with surface southwest flow, allowing a continuous stream of wetter/warmer weather through the beginning of next week. Heaviest QPF amounts will be located in the mountains, with three day totaling up to 3 inches in the highest elevations (50-70 percent chance) with the lower elevations that include the Basin, Central Oregon, and the Kittitas Valleys seeing up to a quarter of an inch of rain, more so than where the heaviest rain bands occur (40-60 percent chance). A warm trend will begin on Friday with high temperatures rising to low to mid 50s and continue on through next week as well. This will cause some hydro and river level concerns going through Wednesday with the snow falling between now and then, although guidance at this time does not have some rivers going beyond 'Action' stage, it is something to keep an eye for the next couple of days. Breezy to windy conditions will be observed with the upcoming system, with the strongest winds occurring between Friday night and Saturday morning. Parts of the Columbia Basin, Foothills, and other lower elevation areas will see gusts up to 30 to 40 mph for much of the time. NBM advertising 40 to 60 percent chances of wind advisory conditions over the weekend, with 10 to 30 percent chances of gusts 57 mph or greater. No wind highlights expected yet, but confidence is increasing slightly for Wind Advisory thresholds, the question will be if they mix down enough to the surface to exceed advisory thresholds. && .AVIATION...06Z TAFs...Thanks to the low stratus layer, this will drop KDLS/KPSC to MVFR with KYKM at IFR and KPDT/KALW to LIFR conditions. KDLS/KPSC may briefly see patchy fog overnight into early Thursday morning (35% confidence), but dense fog could redevelop for KYKM/KALW while continuing for KPDT thus dropping VSBYs to 1/2sm or less. The fog should then dissipate around 12Z for KDLS/KPSC and later in the afternoon for KYKM/KALW. KPDT may have lingering fog/mist through the day Thursday (40-50% confidence). In addition to the fog and low cloud decks, a weak system will begin approaching early Thursday morning with light rain starting KDLS first before other sites. KRDM/KBDN will be VFR with light rain Thursday morning until MVFR conditions return early Thursday evening when low clouds redevelop. Winds will remain less than 10kts. Feaster/97 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... PDT 42 37 54 41 / 90 80 90 50 ALW 41 38 51 42 / 90 90 100 70 PSC 40 33 53 41 / 80 70 70 20 YKM 41 30 51 39 / 50 50 70 50 HRI 41 36 55 43 / 90 70 80 30 ELN 41 33 46 35 / 60 60 80 60 RDM 46 35 56 34 / 50 50 70 30 LGD 40 35 49 39 / 90 90 100 80 GCD 42 37 48 36 / 80 90 90 50 DLS 46 42 56 47 / 80 80 90 80 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM PST this morning for ORZ507. WA...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM PST this morning for WAZ029. Freezing Fog Advisory until 11 AM PST this morning for WAZ026- 027. && $$ SHORT TERM...95 LONG TERM....95 AVIATION...97 ####018006110#### FXUS63 KLOT 041135 AFDLOT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 535 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Brief period of very cold weather through tonight. - Series of clippers to bring periodic light snow chances to the region through the period. Confidence is not particularly high with tracks/timing of these features. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 322 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025 Arctic high pressure (1035mb at Yankton SD at midnight) is building east-southeast across the Corn Belt early this morning, in the wake of the sharp cold front which pushed through the area Wednesday afternoon/evening. Temperatures continue to steadily fall as northwest winds on the eastern periphery of the high provide persistent low-level cold advection. Temperatures are expected to dip into the negative single digits in spots west of Chicago through/shortly after sunrise and the positive single digits and low teens farther east. Coldest wind chills are still expected to be around -15F early this morning, as temps continue to fall but winds gradually diminish. The surface ridge is progged to drift east across the forecast area this afternoon under mostly sunny skies, further reducing wind speeds. With a substantial early-season snow pack and shallow mixing, temps will be slow to recover from this morning's lows, though sunshine should help. Guidance depicts a large range in forecast highs for today, from the low-mid teens to the low- mid-20s for afternoon highs for afternoon highs, and have blended this to be a little warmer than our previous forecast. With the surface ridge across the area early this evening, we'll see a quick drop in temps after sunset given the light winds, mainly clear skies and the snow pack. Will likely see readings drop into the negative single digits in places during the evening, then become steady/slowly rise overnight as warm advection develops (especially aloft) as winds turn south and increase on the back side of the now-departing surface ridge. Wind chills will likely bottom out around -15F (or even a bit colder) during the night with increasing south winds offsetting the slow rise in temps. Some guidance trends suggest the potential for some low-stratus development after midnight as warm/moist advection flow increases above the shallow boundary layer. Temperatures are expected to reach the upper 20s and ending this short bout of very cold arctic weather. The first in what appears to be a series of clipper-type systems is forecast to propagate southeast across the northern Plains and upper Mississippi Valley Friday afternoon/evening. 12/18Z guidance from Wednesday had waffled a bit on the track and precip footprint with this system, though 00Z guidance is in general agreement in bringing the positive-tilt mid-level wave across the area Friday night with the primary surface low passing north of the area. Forecast soundings depict rather dry moisture profiles which mainly saturate in the mid-levels briefly Friday evening. Ascent is not particularly strong and the DGZ depth not impressive, suggesting the potential for a period of mainly light snow, with QPF and ensemble precip probs also notably low south of the IL/WI border. Have maintained 30-40% pops generally north of I-80 for this - highest toward the WI state line and north of it. Guidance remains in decent agreement with another mid-level wave tracking east-southeast across the central/northern Plains on a slightly farther south track Saturday, which looks to have a better potential for producing some light snow across parts of the forecast area Saturday night into Sunday, albeit in a weakening phase. The clipper parade continues onward into next week, with ensembles continuing to highlight systems Monday night into Tuesday, and again Tuesday night into Wednesday. There continues to be ensemble support for a deeper surface low to track north of the area in the Wednesday time-frame, potentially producing warm enough thermal profiles in which mixed precipitation could be an issue over our cold snow pack. Snow cover should remain largely in place, given cooler than average temperatures expected through the period. Ratzer && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 535 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025 North/northwest winds to 10kt will become west/northwest later this morning into the early afternoon, then shift to the southwest during the mid/late afternoon when speeds will be well under 10kt. South/southwest winds will continue overnight into Friday morning when speeds will increase into the 10-15kt range along with gusts to 20kt mid/late Friday morning. There is a small chance for low mvfr level clouds, possibly ifr level clouds Friday morning, but much of the guidance is showing low mvfr cigs developing Friday afternoon, just after the end of the new 30 hour ORD/MDW taf. Trends will need to be monitored but confidence is too low to include even few/sct mention for low mvfr level clouds Friday morning. cms && .CLIMATE... Issued at 542 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025 Updated at 250 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025 Here are the current record low temperatures for Thursday into Friday this week: Chicago Cold High Low Thursday 12/4 13 (1991) 0 (1893) Friday 12/5 4 (2005) Rockford Cold High Low Thursday 12/4 7 (1991) -4 (1991) Friday 12/5 -5 (2005) - Izzi && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. IN...None. LM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for Winthrop Harbor IL to Gary IN. Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for Gary to Burns Harbor IN-Burns Harbor to Michigan City IN. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/chicago