####018007972#### FXUS61 KRLX 110737 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 237 AM EST Thu Dec 11 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Gusty winds and upslope snow showers early this morning, with blizzard conditions in the high terrain. Clipper crosses tonight into Friday with mainly snow. More snow late Saturday into Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 210 AM Thursday... A cold front has moved east of the area, but scattered snow showers are still traversing the area. Snow showers will continue through the morning and will be moderate to heavy at times. Due to strong NW winds, blowing snow is likely at times in the higher elevations of the northeastern mountains resulting in blizzard conditions. Radar and models show the heaviest repeating bands setting up at across the southern coalfields of WV, southern mountains of WV/VA, and across the usual upslope zone of Randolph and Pocahontas Counties. Will keep Winter Weather and Blizzard headlines going across these areas. Will also assess the need to expand the Advisory south from McDowell into Buchanan and Dickenson Counties in VA if bands look to produce Advisory criteria snowfall, but currently models keep amounts at most 1 to 1.5 inches in these areas. Light snowfall, generally less than an inch, will fall across most of the lowlands and areas outside of headlines. Some amounts closer to 2 inches are possible along the foothills. Issued area-wide special weather statements for locations outside of headlines to cover the snowfall expected and slick roads due to flash freeze. Will likely keep these statements going through the morning commute as untreated and secondary roads could be slick. Most of this snow will fall between now and the 6-8am time frame, with activity tapering off and becoming more confined to the mountains late morning into the afternoon. Northwest to westerly winds will also be decreasing as the morning progresses. Still some gusts between 15 and 25 mph are possible across the lowlands, with 20 to 30 mph in the mountains at times through the afternoon. High temperatures will be below freezing today with maybe a few lowland spots reaching two to three degrees above freezing. Most of our mountain locations will remain in the upper teens and 20s today. Our secondary system in the form of a very strong clipper will arrive tonight. Snowfall is projected to overspread from southwest to northeast between 10pm and 12am tonight with more area wide impacts and accumulations expected. To avoid confusion, going to wait until current headlines expire to issue headlines for this next system. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 230 AM Thursday... Snowfall will continue Friday morning with most of the amounts falling between 7am and 1pm. That said, the morning commute will be impacted for most locations. Temperatures will warm above freezing across the lowlands by the afternoon causing rain to mix in at times until a secondary clipper moves through Friday night into Saturday. This will result in another flash freeze and change over to all snow late Friday into Saturday. Light accumulations will be possible. Currently, expecting between 1 and 3 inches for most of the area with this system. The higher end of this range is projected to set up across the mountains and along and south of the I-64/I-77 corridor. This could shift either directions though if changes occur with the track of this system, so this is not a set range. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 230 AM Thursday... Another system is expected Saturday into Sunday. Most locations stand a decent shot at seeing 2 to 4 inches of snow out of this system with the higher end of that range and locally higher amounts projected across the northern lowlands and northeastern mountains. An arctic air mass will then entrench the region behind this snowfall. Temperatures will drop into the teens and single digits late Saturday into Sunday. Sunday's highs won't even make it into the 20s across our area. Wind chills between -10 and -20 will be felt across the higher elevations of the mountains and will likely warrant wind chill/extreme cold headlines. Especially Sunday night into Monday with lows projected to be in the single and negative digits. High pressure provides dry weather Monday into Tuesday, but with below normal temperatures. Warming trend starts Wednesday into Thursday with 40s and 50s on the board across portions of the lowlands. Active weather in the form of rain chances also arrive mid week. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 130 AM Thursday... Cold front has moved east of the area. Snow showers will continue through the morning, with sustained heavier snow expected across the mountains where blowing snow may be possible at times from gusty winds. The lowlands will mostly see intermittent light snow showers, but radar shows some hefty bands moving across the area containing moderate to heavy snowfall. Timing and location of snow showers is of low to medium confidence, so TEMPO groups have been added for most sites. MVFR/IFR CIGs and VIS will continue with LIFR impacting BKW at times. HTS and PKB may see VFR conditions in between bands of snow. Snow showers will gradually taper off from west to east after ~12z, but some lingering upslope is possible across the northeastern portion of the mountains (EKN). MVFR and some IFR CIGs will remain during the day Thursday. Some fleeting VFR is possible at CKB, HTS, and PKB. 15-25 kts at present across the lowlands Winds will be out of the NW with gusts between 15-25 kts. Gusts of 20-35 kts remain possible through the night across the mountains. Gusts will be decreasing as the morning goes on, but will likely be breezy at times during the day Thursday. Winds will shift W Thursday afternoon, then SW in the evening. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low to medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Ceilings and visibility will likely fluctuate between categories at times this morning. Timing, location, and intensity of snow showers could vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE THU 12/11/25 UTC 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 EST 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H M H M M H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H L H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H L H H M H H M M H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 06Z FRIDAY... IFR conditions are possible area-wide Thursday night and Friday, and again late Saturday into Sunday with snow. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for WVZ034-515>521-525. Blizzard Warning until 10 AM EST this morning for WVZ522-523- 526. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LTC NEAR TERM...RPY/LTC SHORT TERM...LTC LONG TERM...LTC AVIATION...LTC ####018002822#### FXUS64 KJAN 110742 AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 142 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025 ...New DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry conditions with seasonably cool temperatures can be expected through Thursday Night. - Milder weather is expected Friday into Saturday ahead of an approaching cold front. - Colder weather with lows below freezing should return Sunday and persist into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1250 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025 Today and Tonight...A weak frontal boundary moved across the area on Wednesday and this resulted in a brief cooldown. Surface high pressure is centered over the area this morning and this will shift east of the area this afternoon. The flow will become southerly this afternoon, with temperatures mostly in the mid to upper 50s. Mostly clear skies will prevail through much of the night tonight, with some increase in clouds by morning. Lows will range from the upper 30s to low 40s. /15/ There will be a brief but significant warm-up Friday/Saturday in the return flow ahead of stronger cold front approaching from the north. A quick round of showers will accompany the front and bring light rainfall (less than a quarter of an inch on average), then much chillier temperatures will follow the frontal passage as we go from late Saturday night into early next week. Forecast confidence for this round of colder temperatures continues to increase, and the intensity of the cold forecast has increased just a bit more as more guidance points to a significant polar high surging south through the MS Valley. The cold anomalies should be centered on Monday morning when lows could dip into the upper teens north of the Highway 82 corridor, but dangerous levels of cold are not expected for the most part and the coldest air will only make a brief visit. Look for temperatures to rebound and rainfall chances increase a bit as we go into mid next week. /EC/ && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 848 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 Wind gusts will continue to diminish overnight as winds become light and northerly. VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. /86/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 57 41 66 46 / 0 0 0 10 Meridian 56 37 65 43 / 0 0 0 10 Vicksburg 57 41 68 43 / 0 0 10 10 Hattiesburg 60 39 71 50 / 0 0 10 20 Natchez 60 42 70 49 / 0 0 10 10 Greenville 54 41 63 38 / 0 0 0 0 Greenwood 55 41 63 38 / 0 0 0 0 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ 15/EC ####018006695#### FXUS63 KARX 110744 AFDARX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 140 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Winter system today shifting a bit farther southwest and bulk of snow likely away from the local area. Parts of NE IA could still receive an inch or two. - Bitter to dangerous cold moves in for the weekend. High temps in the single digits above/below zero. Coldest Sunday morning. Wind chills from -20 to -35F Sat night through Sun morning. Cold Weather Advisories are expected. Plan now for this cold weekend. - More seasonable temps return for next week with a few non-snowing days too. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 140 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025 > TODAY-FRIDAY: a couple more shortwaves provide snow chances - but mostly south/north of the local area. The first shortwave will streak from the PAC NW, spinning across the northern plains and then IA later this afternoon/evening. Upglide on the 280:295K surfaces precede it with good, sloping Fgen from southwest to northeast. QG is disjointed, not vertically stacked nor overly strong. There is a little low level feed of moisture on the southern flank of the system with ample saturation per forecast soundings, RH fields. Enough pop and saturation to produce another band of snow across parts of the region - with a few inches likely. Where the band lays out is the main question. Ala recent, similar events, the global models (GFS/EPS) haven't moved much off their original depictions days ago - stretching the snow band from southwest MN, across central IA into central IL. Real good support from their ensemble suites, respectively. Also ala recent events, the CAMS models (namely the RAP and HRRR) shifted north over the past day...but now are trending back southward - more inline with the GFS and EC. Think this is the way to go and will align the snow chances with the global outlay. With that trend, the primary snow band sits just southwest of the local area. 1/2 to 1" currently progged for portions of SE MN, southwest WI. 1/2 to 2" for NE IA...although the probabilities for 2" currently sit at 20%. No need for a winter weather advisory at this time. Will monitor real-time obs along with meso guidance to see if a shift back north might manifest. The second shortwave is progged to drop across portions of northern MN/northern WI Fri/Fri evening. Has some QG convergence through the layers but weak low level warming and no Fgen to speak of. Also, RH isn't impressive and only meager QPF. All in all, a weaker shortwave but has enough going for it to produce an area of light snow, albeit with minimal amounts. High chances, low amounts favored in this scenario. Current track keeps the higher local chances north of I- 94. > WEEKEND: very cold! Highs might not warm above zero for some. A hefty slug of cold air follows in the wake of the second, more northern tracking shortwave Friday. 850 mb temps progged to fall from around -8 C at 12z Friday to -20 C by 18z Sat. NAEFS and EC 850 temp anomalies near -2...and expect these to increase over the next couple days. EFI are on aboard with a strongly anomalous cold outbreak for the weekend. Max and Min Ts range from 0.8 to 0.95 with a non zero SoT. At KLSE, over 75% of the EPS and GEFS members suggest it won't warm above zero through the weekend. The LREF paints 80-100% chances for -10 F or colder Sunday morning area wide. Brrr indeed. Winds, while not expected to be "strong", could blow from 10 to 25 mph at times Friday through Saturday. This will add a signficiant bite to the already cold conditions. Cold Weather Advisories are likely Sat night through Sun morning. A streaking ripple in the upper level flow looks to take a similar path as the shortwave this afternoon/tonight - moving southeast out of the northern plains and across IA on Sat. If this track holds, most (if not all) of any impactful snow will stay well south of the local area. Model blend might be a bit too far north with related snow chances but QPF/snow totals hold more southward. Will stick with the blend for the details for now. > NEXT WEEK: pattern shift! Temps more inline with the season return. Not quite as "busy" for snow chances - more dry days. GEFS/EPS shift east an upper level ridge along the west coast as we move into the new week. Excellent agreement in the all the WPC clusters. The ridge doesn't stay around long, but the upper level flow stays fairly zonal and progressive. The big upshot from all this is a return to more seasonable temps - potentially a few degrees above. Temps could fluctuate a bit more moving into the following weekend, but no signficiant cold (after this weekend) looming on the horizon. As for pcpn chances, looks like we could get a break from the every other day snow makers that have been plaguing the region over the past week or so. Some consensus via a bulk of the ensemble members for a system to traipse across the northern plains/upper mississippi river valley around Thu. Current solutions suggest a stronger system that could pack a punch - for some. A lot to navigate between now and then, with likely shifts in track/timing. A system to keep an eye on. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1144 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 MVFR CIGS expected through the overnight for most locations. Areas in central Wisconsin will see some clearing taking place early this morning. There remains some uncertainty if the MVFR CIGS linger through the entire forecast period. During the mid morning and the afternoon, cloud coverage may not be BKN or OVC in the MVFR flight category, however clouds ahead of the next chance of snow filter in during the afternoon and evening and gradually decrease in height towards the MVFR flight category. Have decided to add in a SCT deck at KLSE and KRST for this potential. By the time the evening rolls around, MVFR CIGS are likely to occur again. Light snow will be possible for portions of southeast Minnesota and northeast Iowa this afternoon and evening. With the potential that some light snow could fall further north, have left the PROB30 groups for both KLSE and KRST for the late afternoon/early evening. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Rieck AVIATION...Cecava