####018007232#### FXUS61 KRLX 110745 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 345 AM EDT Sat May 11 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Cooler weather for the weekend. More showers and a few storms expected again this afternoon. Warming trend in place through Monday. Wet weather returns Monday night into Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 245 AM Saturday... Key Points: * Fog will linger an hour or two past sunrise. * A line of showers and storms is expected late morning through mid-afternoon. Gusty winds and small hail are possible, but severe weather is not expected. Areas of fog with visibility down to 1/2 mile or less in spots has developed across much of WV and our VA counties, but is patchy or not occurring across most of our OH and KY counties at this time. Some further expansion of the fog is possible, but high clouds moving in from ILN's area may help stunt that growth. Fog should break up by 8am or 9am for most of the area, with some fair-weather cumulus possible to develop by late morning as diurnal heating kicks into gear. A front pushing in from the west is forecast to bring a distinct band of showers and a few thunderstorms across the area today. The current forecast, which didn't change much from the previous one, has it reaching our furthest NW counties by mid- morning, crossing the Ohio River around noon, and reaching the eastern mountains by mid-afternoon. Some showers may linger up against the mountains into the early evening hours, but should tend to dissipate in the hour or to after sunset. Models are indicating 500-1000 J/kg of MU CAPE, a bit less than that of ML CAPE, and a wet bulb 0C level around 7-8kft, so some sustained convection and small hail will be possible with the stronger cells. With some mid-level dry air and potential DCAPE of 250-500 J/kg, some gusty winds are possible as well. However, some very strong winds above 500mb/6km may shear off storms that try to grow above that level, so we may be looking at mostly low-topped convection with this line. Winds ahead of the line and front will be SW'ly, and may get a bit gusty this afternoon, with gusts of 15-25kts possible. Behind the front, winds shift W'ly and remain gusty initially, but should calm down tonight for most locations outside of the mountains. Much of the area will be about 5 degrees warmer than Friday, but still a bit below normal, with lower elevation highs from the mid-60s to around 70 degrees. A bit more mild tonight, with forecast lows in the 40s for the lowlands, and upper 30s to lower 40s for the higher terrain. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 315 AM Saturday... Not much of note for the short-term period. Sunday brings the exodus of rain associated with a cold front passage and high pressure swiftly building in behind it drying us out and keeping us mostly cloud free. Temperatures will be mild and comfortable with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s. The mountains will see temperatures in the 50s and 60s. Much of the same dry weather in store for Monday, though flow shifting out of the SW will provide warmer temperatures with low 80s possible across the lowlands. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 330 AM Saturday... An advancing disturbance over the Mississippi River Valley moves closer Monday night, advecting some moisture out ahead of it over our area. Showers and some thunderstorms arrive as a result with storms looking more of a possibility Tuesday afternoon with peak heading and forcing. Parameters for severe storm maintenance and development are not adequate though, instability will be limited to conditional as thick cloud cover and highs in the 70s have CAPE less than 1,000 J/Kg. Stronger storms could be possible across the southern portions of the forecast area, especially as the main low pressure center passes just south of our area. Will have to watch out for flooding issues with this system as Tuesday and Wednesday will be wet with heavier showers about the area; at least a marginal risk of excessive rainfall is likely Tuesday into Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday outside of the chance for an afternoon shower or thunderstorm. A ridge and warming trend will be in place Thursday ahead of another disturbance that moves in Friday, reintroducing showers and storms as we head into the weekend. && .AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 200 AM Saturday... Fog has developed for most valley locations along and east of I-77/US119, and is patchy west of there but gradually expanding. However, with some high clouds moving in from the west, not sure if the fog will quite make it to HTS. IFR or LIFR flight conditions are expected for the areas impacted by fog. With sunrise around 1020Z this morning, the TAFs have fog dissipating for most by 12z or 1230z for most terminals, but some pockets may hold on longer. The other main aviation concern this TAF period will be for the line of showers and a few thunderstorms that will cross the area between late morning and late afternoon, ahead of and with a cold front crossing the area. Some gusty winds and small hail will be possible with this activity, and breezy SW'ly winds ahead of the front will shift W'ly once it passes. Gusts outside of t-storm activity could reach around 20kts at some TAF sites. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of visibility and/or ceiling restrictions overnight with fog/stratus may vary from the forecast. Brief MVFR VSBY is possible on Saturday with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SAT 05/11/24 UTC 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 EDT 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M M L H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H M M M M H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H L L L L H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M M M L L H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY L L L L L H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY L L L L L L H H H H H M AFTER 06Z SUNDAY... Widespread IFR conditions are not expected at this time. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FK/LTC NEAR TERM...FK SHORT TERM...LTC LONG TERM...LTC AVIATION...FK ####018002879#### FXUS63 KEAX 110746 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 246 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Quiet weather is expected Saturday with partly cloudy skies and highs in the 70. -Showers and thunderstorms become possible Sunday and Monday. Additional minor flooding possible. -Additional showers and thunderstorms expected for the second half of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 240 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Similar to last night, very light showers have skirted our northwestern corner thanks to as shortwave trough and trailing front sliding across the Great Lakes region. Most, if not all, of our are should remain dry. Heading into the daylight hour, quiet weather persists with light northwest to westerly winds today and mostly sunny skies. Highs this afternoon will reach near 80 degrees for western parts of the forecast area including the Kansas City Metro. Elsewhere can expect mid to upper 70s. As we head into Saturday night into Sunday morning another system churning off the Rockies pushes east toward our forecast area. Ahead of its arrival warm air advection will allow for continued warmer temperatures and increasing rain chances starting Sunday morning. As far as temperatures go, despite the cloudy and rainy conditions, most should still see highs reach near 80 in the afternoon. The system develops a closed low as it very sluggishly slides east. Continued shower and thunderstorm activity can be expected continuing into the overnight. The good news is that CAPE and shear profiles look less than enthusiastic, so severe weather is not expected at this time. Shower and thunderstorm activity continues during the day Monday with the system nearly centered over the area around this time. The wave gradually makes its way east by Monday night with rainfall chances finally coming to an end. When its all said an done, rainfall amounts as high as 1.00-2.00 inches can be expected across the forecast area. This may lead to some additional minor river flooding. Dry weather is expected to return for the middle part of next week with very short lived ridging setting in. Temperatures remain mild with highs in the mid 70s through this time. The second half of the week looks to become more active again as another wave slides into the forecast area Thursday and Friday bringing additional chances for showers and thunderstorms. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1210 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024 VFR conditions expected through the TAF period with winds out of the northwest. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...HB AVIATION...HB ####018005834#### FXUS62 KJAX 110746 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 346 AM EDT Sat May 11 2024 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .NEAR TERM... Issued at 345 AM EDT Sat May 11 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Cold frontal passage from North to South early this morning with drier airmass pushing into the region on a Northwest steering flow. Skies becoming Mostly Sunny and while the airmass will be drier, still expect temps to remain close to normal levels with highs in the lower 80s across SE GA and mid/upper 80s along the I-10 corridor and near 90 across inland NE FL south of the I-10 corridor. These temps will be warm enough to kick off an East Coast sea breeze front to push inland to the I-95 corridor and keep the Atlantic beaches slightly cooler. Weak high pressure over the region tonight along with mostly clear skies and light winds will allow for the coolest night of the month of May so far with lows in the middle 50s over inland SE GA and upper 50s over inland NE FL and lower to middle 60s along the Atlantic Coast. && .SHORT TERM... (Sunday through Monday night) Issued at 345 AM EDT Sat May 11 2024 Sunday will remain dry as high pressure at low levels will be almost directly overhead. There will be a fair amount of mid and high cloud cover, however with the west to northwesterly flow aloft. The weak surface pressure gradient should allow the sea breeze to make progress inland and west of I-95 during the afternoon. High temps will peak near normal, in the 80s to near 90 area wide before falling only into the 60s to near 70 overnight. High pressure moves well offshore through the day on Monday in response to a complex frontal system taking shape over the southern plains, as an upper trough/low starts to progress from west to east across the central US. A developing warm front essentially lifts northward in response to this system, and high pressure moving offshore Monday, likely stalling out north of our area. This stalled boundary, combined with several shortwave impulses around the base of the aforementioned upper trough, will begin an active pattern across the region. Some uncertainty currently exists with respect to extent of shower and t'storm chances Monday as the warm front lifts north, as guidance is split on the behavior of shortwave energy well ahead of the main trough. However, certainly will convective chances for all, likely highest over southeast GA. Temperatures Monday will be similar to those on Sunday, generally in the 80s to near or slightly above 90 furthest south and west, in addition to a mild morning on Tuesday. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Friday) Issued at 345 AM EDT Sat May 11 2024 The aforementioned upper trough makes further progress eastward on Tuesday and into Wednesday, with more impressive dynamics aloft interacting with the stalled boundary. Expecting this period to have the highest chances for showers and t'storms, with a strong to severe threat not out of the question considering this setup. Looks like there will be some rather short lived subsidence around Wednesday Night and through Thursday on the upstream side of the departing system, with a ridge passing overhead aloft. However, the next frontal system looks to take shape by the end of the week with the return of precip chances. Regarding temperatures: Likely near to below average furthest north on Tuesday, near or above average further south due to the proximity of the frontal boundary. Tending towards above average for Wednesday and through the end of the week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 125 AM EDT Sat May 11 2024 Last of line of showers with potential MVFR CIGS impacting GNV/SGJ through 07Z, then VFR for the remainder of the TAF period with an increase in NW winds to 10-15 knots at GNV/VQQ/JAX today, with NE winds expected at 10-15 knots at SGJ/SSI/CRG this afternoon. Winds decreasing after sunset to 5 knots or less. && .MARINE... Issued at 345 AM EDT Sat May 11 2024 Winds shift to the North at SCEC levels (15-20 knots) early this morning behind the cold frontal passage and spread across the local waters. These winds become onshore/NE on Saturday and weaken to 10-15 knots as the weak high pressure ridge builds over the waters for the weekend with weak pressure gradient and No headlines expected with local sea breezes during the afternoon hours. The old frontal boundary lifts back to the North as a warm frontal boundary on Monday and stalls across the local waters on Tuesday as several waves of low pressure track along this feature. Increasing SE winds on Monday to possible Small Craft Advisory levels will shift to South and Southwest on Tuesday and Wednesday as the waves moving along the frontal boundary with a more unsettled pattern of showers and storms at times, with heavy rainfall and gusty wind threat at times. Rip Currents: Low to Moderate risk of rip currents expected through the weekend with surf/breakers around 2 feet, before onshore/SE flow increases on Monday with a potential for solid Moderate to High Risk of rip currents. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 82 56 85 63 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 79 63 83 68 / 0 0 0 0 JAX 86 59 86 66 / 0 0 0 0 SGJ 84 63 84 68 / 0 0 0 0 GNV 89 59 86 64 / 10 10 0 0 OCF 91 61 88 66 / 10 10 0 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. && $$ ####018006234#### FXUS61 KBGM 110747 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 347 AM EDT Sat May 11 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A brief break in the rain showers is expected this morning, before additional showers move in from the west this afternoon and evening. Additional scattered showers are expected Sunday through the middle of the upcoming week, before a brief break in the unsettled weather is expected later in the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... 345 AM Update: Our region is sandwiched between two shortwaves this morning. However, with plenty of low level moisture present, cloud cover remains along with some areas of drizzle. There is some partial clearing in some spots (particularly across the Finger Lakes Region as well as the Poconos-Catskills), but those areas are quickly filling in with fog (especially in the valleys). Any fog will dissipate by mid-morning. Another shortwave dropping through the Great Lakes region will bring a resurgence of rain shower activity by this afternoon. Diurnally-driven instability aided by cold air aloft will introduce the chance for some thunder by later this afternoon into this evening, mainly for areas west of I-81. Although not as cool as yesterday, today will still feature below normal temperatures with highs only topping out in the mid 50s to near 60 (normal highs this time of the year are in the mid 60s to lower 70s). The shortwave becomes a stacked low tonight into Sunday as it moves over the area. This will bring more rain showers to the area during this timeframe. This low moves east of the area by Sunday evening which will allow for showers to gradually taper off. Aside from the showers, another cool and cloudy day is in store for Sunday with high temperatures only in the upper 40s to upper 50s. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... 115 PM update... Main concerns in the short term are focused on the next couple bouts of rain showers and some afternoon thunderstorms Sunday and Monday. The seasonably cooler air will remain in place on Sunday as a stacked low pressure system rotates eastward through the Northeast US. This system should have enough deep layer moisture (around a half inch PW), and sufficient synoptic forcing to trigger scattered rain showers across the region. The showers should be hit and miss for the most part. The other area of interest on Sunday will be the threat for pop-up thunderstorms. Temperatures aloft are expected to be quite cold (500 mb T around -25 deg C), which should trigger some isolated convection as the system moves through during the day Mother's Day. Severe weather is not expected. The only threat will be for cloud to ground lightning. Afternoon high temperatures on Sunday will only reach into the upper 50s to near 60, and overnight lows Sunday night will be chilly once again...falling into the upper 30s to mid 40s. The cool pattern will start to change on Monday as weak surface ridging and a wedge of deep dry air moves through the region. The cold air mass will shift to the east and warmer conditions will start to push in from the southwest. Surface temperatures will warm into the mid 60s to near 70 later in the day Monday with mostly sunny skies early in the day. A weak cold front will drop in from the northwest later in the day and allow cloud cover to increase, along with the chances for showers and even a few isolated thunderstorms as well. The increasing temperature and moisture in the boundary layer will allow more potential instability to be present Monday afternoon and early evening. The forcing along the front and the steep low and mid level lapse rates will lead to some convection scattered across the region. At this time it appears the threat for severe weather is very low. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... 115 PM update... A weak cold front dropping south across the eastern Great Lakes and Northeast US will stall out Monday night into Tuesday and become quasi-stationary, basically WSW-ENE across the area through the day. The slow-moving nature of this front will keep the threat of rain across the region in place potentially all the way through Wednesday afternoon. There will also be a minor threat of thunderstorms during the this time given the rich air mass south of the front and relatively strong upper level dynamics due to the presence of a couple upper level jet structure over NY and PA. This time period is still quite far out, but if this pattern holds, this could be something to pay close attention to Tue into Wed. Drier air starts to move in by Thursday along with a building upper level ridge of high pressure from the west. This pattern will allow conditions to dry out going into the latter half of the week. Temperatures are expected to remain seasonal with highs in the 60s and 70s...and lows in the 50s. && .AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Restrictions have once again been a bit slower than originally anticipated to move in as of 06Z, but the expectation is that widespread MVFR to Fuel Alternate restrictions will move in over the next few hours, along with occasional IFR restrictions. It is uncertain if these restrictions will be more from low ceilings or visby restrictions from patchy fog/mist. KAVP is expected to remain VFR. A return to VFR is expected at all terminals by the late morning/early afternoon, before additional MVFR restrictions start to move in from the west this evening with the next batch of showers. Outlook... Sunday through Wednesday...Occasional rain showers may bring intermittent restrictions as multiple disturbances pass through the region. Some periods of mainly VFR conditions possible in between disturbances, but timing of this is uncertain. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BJG NEAR TERM...BJG SHORT TERM...BJT LONG TERM...BJT AVIATION...BJG