####018005905#### FXPQ50 PGUM 110747 AFDGUM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tiyan GU 547 PM ChST Thu Dec 11 2025 .Marianas Synopsis... Satellite imagery shows partly cloudy skies. Radar imagery shows no showers over the region. Altimetry shows combined seas of 6 to 8 feet, while buoy data shows 6 to 7 feet. && .Discussion... The main weather maker for this discussion is the shear line that is just north of Saipan's coastal waters. This feature is expected to be somewhat quasi-stationary with a slow southward motion. Over the next 24 to 36 hours, breaks in the cloud formations are anticipated as the shear line begins to weaken and fragment. Current model estimations suggest the shear line will fizzle out before it gets over Saipan. Winds will remain the main concern even after the shear line fizzles out. Winds are expected to be around 15 to 20 mph for Guam and Rota. Winds over Tinian are expected to be slightly lower than Saipan but remain in the range of 15 to 25 mph. && .Marine... The coastal regions is where the shear line from above is expected to have the most effect on. Over Saipan's northern waters, scattered showers may occur, there is also a very small potential for "one hit wonder" thunderstorms. Regardless, these showers are expected to be short lived over the next 24 hours or so. Wind and seas are expected to rise over the weekend before gradually tapering down by the middle of next week. Models indicate that the peak sea height is anticipated to arrive on Sunday. Sea heights are expected to be the highest in Saipan's waters and the lowest in Guam's. Seas could reach up to 11 feet. This will also coincide with a larger northeasterly pulse from a distant mid-latitude system. High Surf Advisory (HSA), High Risk of Rip Currents (HRRC) and Small Craft Advisory (SCA) are very possible once this shear line gets a bit closer, however, at this time it is too soon to tell the onset of these advisories and statement's conditions. && .Eastern Micronesia... Partly cloudy skies with spotty showers are seen over Pohnpei with mostly cloudy skies and scattered showers at Kosrae and Majuro. Altimetry shows seas between 4 and 6 feet across the region with Kosrae and Pohnpei buoys agreeing with this, showing seas between 4 and 6 feet as well. The main feature seen across eastern Micronesia this afternoon is an Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) that pushed into the region overnight. This feature is interacting with an upper-level low, to produce numerous to widespread showers and a few thunderstorms east of Majuro. Bands of scattered showers are expected to move out of this area and across Majuro through the night. By Friday morning, the ITCZ is expected to be just south of Majuro, maintaining scattered showers through the day. By Friday afternoon, the ITCZ looks to break apart, with drier conditions moving into Majuro. For Kosrae, the ITCZ is seen near the island, producing scattered showers across the island tonight. By Friday morning, expect a brief drier period. By Friday evening, the ITCZ looks to strengthen a bit over the island, bringing scattered showers back through the weekend. By Monday, a dry trade-wind pattern is expected to return to the area. For Pohnpei, a dry pattern looks to continue into the weekend. By Saturday evening, a fragment of the ITCZ looks to move into the state, bringing increased convection to Pohnpei through Sunday afternoon. A dry trade-wind pattern is then expected to return for the beginning of next week. For the marine forecast, the main change is for an increasing north swell moving into the region early next week. This swell was bumped up about a foot for a brief period Monday and possibly into Tuesday. Seas are expected to reach as high as 8 feet at Pohnpei and Majuro, and up to 7 feet for Kosrae. Primarily gentle to moderate winds are expected into next week, with Majuro seeing a brief period of lower winds while Pohnpei could see occasional fresh winds next week. && .Western Micronesia... A near-equatorial trough (NET) remains stretched out across the southern half of the region. Fairly quiet weather persists north of this boundary, across the main islands of Palau, Yap, and Chuuk. Over the next few days, an uptick in clouds and showers are expected at times as trade-wind troughs move through Yap and Palau. Then, trade-wind convergence looks to increase north of the NET axis, initially increasing showers at Palau and Chuuk early next week. Altimetry data continues to show combined seas of 4 to 6 feet near Palau and 5 to 7 feet for Yap and Chuuk, which is comprised of primary northeast trade swell and a background north to northeast swell. The north to northeast swell is expected to further weaken over the next day or so as it becomes indistinct from the trade swell. However, seas look to increase a foot or so this weekend in response to an increase in northeast to east trade swell and wind waves. Pulses of long-period north swell emanating from distant mid- latitude systems are expected to arrive at Chuuk starting early next week, then to Yap and Palau around Tuesday. Model guidance indicates patchy areas of moderate to strong winds south of the shear line, as it begins to fragment north of 15N. Gentle to moderate winds look to persist at Palau over the next several days, but moderate to fresh winds with strong gusts at times are expected at Yap and Chuuk over the weekend and early next week. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...None. MP...None. Marianas Waters...None. && $$ Marianas: Bowsher East Micronesia: Kleeschulte West Micronesia: Cruz ####018008615#### FXUS63 KGLD 110749 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 1249 AM MST Thu Dec 11 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry conditions continue. - Warm temperatures return for one day only! Record highs possible Thursday. - Breezy conditions expected Thursday afternoon, mainly in near the Tri-State border. - Fog and freezing fog possible Friday/Saturday morning, but confidence is low to moderate. - Mild temperatures in the 50s to 60s return next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 111 PM MST Wed Dec 10 2025 Today, an 850 mb high pressure system is moving across the southern CONUS. This is extending a ridge over the CWA, leading to weaker winds throughout most of the day Wednesday. This has also helped clear out the sky, allowing temperatures to warm to around 50. Around 21-00Z this evening, the first impacts of our next shortwave trough will start pushing into the western CWA. Surface pressure rises look to be around 0.5-1 mb per hour, leading to winds briefly picking up. We could see a few gusts around 25-30 kts in eastern Colorado before the sunsets. Like most days, once the sun sets, the nocturnal inversion will set in and winds will weaken quickly. This evening into the night, the bulk of our next shortwave trough will push the ridge out of the area to the east. Moisture is lacking, so PoPs are effectively 0. Temperatures are forecast to cool into the mid 30s tonight. However, if the winds remain stronger throughout the night, the boundary layer will remain mixed and lows will only cool into the upper 30s to near 40. Thursday morning, another weak ridge will briefly move in from the southwest and soon be replaced with zonal flow from the Rockies. Mild WAA, clearing skies, and downsloping flow will allow temperatures to warm into the upper 60s to low 70s Thursday. We are looking at some record high temperatures. For more information, see the climate section below. These temperatures and no additional moisture will push minimum RH values down to near 20% in eastern Colorado. Winds are a bit of a concern, mainly in Yuma county. With such warm temperatures expected, winds are forecast to mix very well, allowing northwesterly gusts of ~30 kts to mix down. There is a 40-50% chance gusts around 40-45 kts will occur in northern Yuma county. With the ~30 kts gusts, there's a 15% chance of blowing dust reducing visibility under a mile. If the stronger winds pan out, the potential for blowing dust increases to around 75%. Main timing for the winds and any associated impacts will be 18-23Z. Sunset will once again bring in an inversion, which will weaken the winds quickly. Temperatures overnight will cool to around 30 across the area, with the northwestern CWA being the coolest, near 28 degrees. By Friday morning, there is a 15-25% chance of patchy fog/freezing fog in the northeastern CWA. We're expecting a high pressure system to move in from the west and bring in cooler temperatures. If the high takes a slightly northern path, more northeasterly flow will occur. This will lead to stronger cooling and likely saturating, leading to fog. If the high takes a slightly southern path, more northern flow will occur and fog will likely not form. During the day Friday, the high will move across the CWA. This will once again help the sky remain mostly clear and allow temperatures to warm into the 40s and low 50s. Depending on how quickly the high moves over the CWA, temperatures could flex about 5 degrees either way. A slower high would keep temperatures cooler as the CAA would persist longer into the day. A faster high could bring in slightly warmer southerly flow during the midday. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1248 AM MST Thu Dec 11 2025 Starting the extended period Sunday, a cooler air mass in wake of cold front is forecast to be in place across the area with temperatures in the single digits to mid teens across the area. GFS suggests that fog/stratus may still remain in place as high low level humidity is seen across the area via 00Z GFS cross section analysis. Not seeing any low level omega leading me to believe that any drizzle/freezing drizzle is not likely; but with temperatures still below breezing will need to watch for freezing fog potential. Guidance suggests that a trough will move through the area at some point during the morning which will shift winds to the southwest and start a warmup with downsloping winds. There are discrepancies still within guidance of that so if the trough is delayed then temperatures, especially across the west may be 3-5 degrees cooler than currently forecast. There continues to be a 25-30% chance that Norton and Graham counties do not get above freezing for the day and a 10-15% chance back towards the counties along of Highway 25. The 00Z ECMWF AIFS is in good agreement with around 90% of its members showing the cooler air mass linger in place across the area through the day leading towards the cooler temperatures. To me that seems like the most reasonable scenario especially if we do get the fog/stratus hanging around for the day and the fact the colder air masses typically do end up getting shunted further west than what guidance depicts, so I have nudged temperatures down a few degrees to account for this. There continues to be a 25-30% chance that Norton and Graham counties do not get above freezing for the day and a 10-15% chance back towards the counties along of Highway 25. There are discrepancies still within the GEFS that the trough moves through quicker warming temperatures more, if thats the case then I may be to low on temperatures. Into the new work week, split flow returns to the area resulting in mild temperatures into the 50s and 60s to return again and our dry conditions continuing. Confidence is pretty high in this pattern occurring. There area few disturbance moving through the area that may bring some wind gusts of 20-25 mph during the afternoon so we may need to keep an eye on some fire weather potential during this time frame as humidity values are already forecast in the upper teens to low 20s with the lowest along and west of a Dundy to Greeley county line. Current probabilities are 20-25% chance of 25+ mph gusts across eastern Colorado early Monday afternoon and increasing to 30-40% chance across Kit Carson and Yuma county Tuesday from a weak disturbance off of the Cheyenne Ridge. No precipitation is expected through mid week with this dry air mass in place. Both the deterministic GFS and ECMWF show a low pressure system across the Plains with the 00z GFS across the northern Plains/southern Canada and the ECWMF across central Nebraska. The 00Z GEFS is further south a little closer to the ECMWF which does bear some merit to the deterministic ECMWF. But actually shows it being a little slower and closer to the weekend than mid week. If the ECMWF is on to something then we could potentially be looking at windy conditions and perhaps some light precipitation potential towards the mid to latter part of the week next week. If the system take a northerly track then it will end up being more of a nuisance to nothing notable for the region. Still with so much spread and this still being a week out a lot can and will change and there are differences with the 18 and 06Z runs of the strength of the ECMWF wind field but still warrants watching. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1005 PM MST Wed Dec 10 2025 VFR expected to prevail at both KGLD and KMCK through the TAF period. Surface winds will be breezy at times with occasional high clouds. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 115 PM MST Wed Dec 10 2025 Thursday, we will be getting close to setting some high temperature records across the area. Location Old Record Year Forecast High Hill City, KS 72 1939 70 McCook, NE 66 2004 67 Burlington, CO 70 2004 69 Goodland, KS 77 1939 70 && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CA LONG TERM...Trigg AVIATION...024 CLIMATE...CA