####018009031#### FXUS63 KIND 110750 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 250 AM EST Thu Dec 11 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Accumulating snow likely Thursday night into Friday morning with a narrow swath of 3-5 inches of snow - Second round of accumulating light-moderate snowfall Saturday midday to evening - Arctic outbreak late Saturday to Monday AM...low temperatures near or below zero...dangerous sub-zero wind chills down to -20F. && .SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)... Issued at 250 AM EST Thu Dec 11 2025 Central Indiana will now face a succession of Alberta Clipper lows Central Indiana will remain in the path of strong upper level NW flow, and an efficient set up for quickly developing lows out of the Canadian Rockies. The second of these systems is expected to pass through late Thursday through Friday morning. Prior to its arrival, weak low level vort maxes interacting with lingering stratus in the broader cyclonic flow will likely lead to scattered flurries this morning and into the afternoon. These should not accumulate to anything, but provide periodic snowflakes across the region. The previous system brought through strong CAA, of which sank the baroclinic zone southward placing central Indiana in an ideal zone for both cyclogenesis and temperatures cold enough for snowfall. This second low will be weaker than Wednesday's system, but will likely still have just as much forcing as it pushes across the strong baroclinic zone. These clipper systems along strong temperature gradients typically produce narrow corridors of moderate QPF, and this one is expected to be no different with a general 50-75mile wide corridor of highest QPF. Members of the HREF are still unaligned on expected placement of this corridor leading to some uncertainty with only 15 to 18 hours until precipitation onset. The current range of potential outcomes includes as far north as a Crawfordsville to Newcastle line, to as far south as Vincennes to French Lick. That said, the greatest likelihood for this corridor is still along or just south of the I-74 corridor including cities like Greencastle, Bloomington, Columbus, and Seymour. When looking at snow totals, there are multiple things to keep in mind but the main two are overall QPF and SLRs. Model soundings showcase a deep isothermal layer as the low arrives between -6C and - 10C. This isn't the most ideal temperature for efficient dendrite growth, but deep saturation above 6km and surface temperatures remaining 5-6 degrees below freezing should lead to SLRs between 12- 14:1 across most of central Indiana. Clipper system tend to be on the lower end for QPF due to weak moisture return but given a prolonged 9 to 12 hour stretch of snowfall, total QPF amounts of 0.25-0.35 looks to be the likely peak for the greatest corridor. This should lead to a swath of snowfall between 3 and 5 inches. Slightly higher amounts are possible where the strongest frontogenetical forcing occurs as this forcing will likely be slightly further aloft and within more ideal DGZ temperatures. Forecast timing has a bit more confidence, as the margin of error is larger and ensembles have a tighter spread. Currently, snow is expected to reach the Indiana border between 4PM and 7PM on Thursday and exit Friday morning between 5AM and 8AM. && .LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)... Issued at 250 AM EST Thu Dec 11 2025 Coldest portions of a very large and anomalously cold arctic surface ridge that will prevail over Indiana late Saturday to Monday morning...will be bookended by more reasonable early-weekend cold with another light to moderate snowfall event through PM hours Saturday...and steady moderation through the early workweek to seasonable readings by the end of the period. Lingering snow showers from the short term's boisterous clipper system should last into Friday morning across most of the region, especially eastern zones that could see an additional very thin coating after daybreak. Central/southern zones to likely creep above freezing Friday afternoon...which will be the last time until at least Tuesday. Only light to moderate wind gusts to end the workweek behind the departing system...as large upper polar trough occupying much of North America...adjusts around a broad embedded short wave crossing the northern Great Lakes, bringing brief zonal flow over the Midwest. Nevertheless, Friday night will be noticeably colder than the short term, with lows in the teens to around 20F for most spots, and some stronger gusts nearing 20 mph dropping wind chills as low as single digits for much of the CWA. Biggest precipitation event for the long term will be yet another clipper-type system within the overall west-northwest flow... streaming east within the midday to evening hours. Moderate confidence in widespread 0.10 to 0.20 liquid equivalents...yet less certainty in location of embedded heavier bands closer to 0.25 inches, although greatest likelihood south of the I-74 corridor. While this episode should once again feature a thermal profile below H600 generally around negative 10 degrees Celsius...guidance is showing a growing DGZ presence through the latter half of the episode for the I-74 corridor and north. Resultant increase in SLR/ fluffier snow for late day/evening hours would help boost total snowfall for these areas north of the main swath, bringing the potential for 2-4 inches of new snowfall over most of the region. Cold conditions including dangerously low wind chills will be the long term's greatest hazard. This will starting Saturday for at least northwest counties, where the earlier onset of snow will hold readings in the teens. West-northwest to northwest cold advective breezes gusting to 15-20 mph will be the rule late Saturday through Sunday afternoon as the arctic surface high's center tracks from the Canadian border to Illinois. The departing clipper will allow skies to clear late Saturday night, with the fresh addition to the snow pack contributing to overnight lows in the negative single digits, and therefore dangerous wind chills falling from around 5 above to perhaps negative 15 to negative 25 degrees. Sunday should be the only bitterly cold daytime when most locales may fail to climb above the single digits, with wind chill values possibly held below zero throughout the breezy day. Higher confidence in another dangerously cold night to end the weekend with lows again likely dropping into the negative single digits... although lighter winds should partially mitigate wind chills with WC values potentially falling to Advisory criteria for a second night. Welcomed moderation progged for the early to mid-workweek...with solid resurrection of readings around the Monday timeframe hopefully thwarting any further negative wind chills. Lower confidence in timing/amounts of any weakly-forced precipitation into the mid-week...when transition to more zonal upper pattern allows slow increase of broad Gulf moisture to overrun the Ohio Valley and possibly the Midwest...with perhaps a few rain showers that could have an icy onset if only from very cold ground tempertures. The current forecast maximum temperatures across the region Wednesday are 39-46F. && .AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)... Issued at 1209 AM EST Thu Dec 11 2025 Impacts: - MVFR ceilings with flurries/light snow showers tonight - MVFR conditions continue through midday Thursday - Snow arrives with rapidly deteriorating conditions early Thursday evening Discussion: Scattered light snow showers and flurries continue this evening under a predominantly MVFR ceiling. Scattered light snow showers and flurries will linger for much of the night then diminish Thursday morning as weak surface ridging builds in. Northwest winds continue to gust near 25kts currently but should drop off by late evening as the pressure gradient relaxes. MVFR stratus will hold Thursday morning but should see ceilings rise up to low VFR levels for most of the afternoon as the surface ridge axis passes through the Ohio Valley. Westerly winds will back to southwest by late day at less than 10kts. Widespread snow will expand into central Indiana from the northwest by early Thursday evening with conditions rapidly deteriorating through the evening as snow rates increase. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Weather Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST Friday for INZ028>030-035>037-039-043>048-051>057-060>065- 070>072. && $$ SHORT TERM...Updike LONG TERM...AGM AVIATION...Updike ####018009284#### FXUS65 KABQ 110754 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1254 AM MST Thu Dec 11 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1242 AM MST Thu Dec 11 2025 - Dry and unseasonably mild weather will persist through at least the middle of next week across central and northern New Mexico. - Breezy northwest winds along the central mountain chain and nearby highlands of eastern New Mexico today, Saturday, Monday, and Tuesday will create difficult travel at times for large and high-profile vehicles. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 1242 AM MST Thu Dec 11 2025 Northwest flow aloft continues over the southern Rockies with a persistent upper level ridge off the CA coast. Breezy northwest winds will develop today along the east slopes of the central mt chain and nearby highlands while a surface low deepens to near 1000mb over northeast NM. Wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph are expected in this area while the NBM 90th percentile suggests gusts of 45 mph as a reasonable high-end scenario. Downslope flow will help to warm max temps up to 25F above normal over eastern NM with near-record highs likely. Central and western NM may also see a couple near-records. The next surface high will build down the Great Plains Thursday night with another backdoor "cold" front and cooler temps Friday, especially northeast NM. Readings will still be 5 to 15F above normal areawide with a few more near-record highs in central and western NM. Surface winds will veer to the southwest Friday night and Saturday as the next surface trough deepens over eastern NM. A 45-55kt mid level speed max crossing over central NM Saturday will help to trend northwest winds even stronger along and east of the central mt chain. Expected wind gusts are in the 30 to 40 mph range with the 90th percentile values hinting at 40 to 50 mph gusts. This may prove more challenging for large and high-profile vehicles traveling across the plains. Downslope flow into eastern NM will warm high temps 15 to 20F above normal once again with more near-record highs possible areawide. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 1242 AM MST Thu Dec 11 2025 A more noteworthy backdoor cold front will enter northeast NM Saturday evening as a 1044mb surface high builds south down the Great Plains. This front may be strong enough to push west across the central mt chain into the RGV Sunday morning. MOS guidance is still showing light gap winds for the ABQ metro but the NBM high- end scenario already shows gusts in the 30 to 40 mph. This front will help to bring much cooler temps to eastern NM Sunday morning and Sunday afternoon but model spread is still rather high. These airmasses with such a strong surface high tend to produce stronger winds and colder temps than models expect, especially for eastern NM. Despite temps trending 15 to 20F cooler Sunday these readings are still just near normal for eastern NM. Surface winds will begin to veer around to the south and southwest once again Sunday afternoon. Models are in good agreement that a pair of upper level waves over the eastern Pacific will penetrate the upper level ridge off the CA coastline by Sunday night and Monday. These waves are shown sliding over NM Monday and Tuesday with little impact other than increasing clouds and perhaps more wind. Surface winds may stay breezy along the central mt chain Monday then trend even stronger Tuesday with the shortwave trough/upper low passage. All in all, temps will likely just rebound above normal again for the entire region Monday and Tuesday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1014 PM MST Wed Dec 10 2025 VFR prevails tonight and Thursday as winds tapered off most areas this evening. Localized stronger terrain driven drainage winds are likely at KSAF again early Thursday morning gusting as high was 20+ kts. LLWS will again be a concern along and immediately east of the Sangre de Cristo Mts, struggling to reach KRTN-KLVS. Prevailing W/NW winds return Thursday afternoon, with the strongest gusts focused across eastern NM. Peak gusts of 20-30kts will be possible from KSXU to KTCC to KCVN. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1242 AM MST Thu Dec 11 2025 Northwest winds will trend stronger today along the high plains of eastern NM where min RH falls to between 15 and 20%. Friday will be cooler with lighter winds and higher RH over eastern NM. Stronger northwest winds will return Saturday with min RH between 15 and 20% again over the high plains of eastern NM. A stronger backdoor cold front will move into eastern NM Saturday night with cooler temps and higher RH thru Sunday. Ventilation will remain poor thru the weekend with pockets of fair rates over parts of eastern NM. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 53 27 52 26 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 56 20 57 20 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 56 26 55 27 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 61 18 60 20 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 60 29 60 29 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 63 21 63 20 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 60 29 60 28 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 63 35 61 34 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 62 32 61 30 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 71 27 71 26 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 75 26 75 25 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 55 26 54 23 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 58 36 55 33 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 65 34 60 33 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 56 31 56 28 / 0 0 0 0 Red River....................... 50 27 49 25 / 0 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 56 18 55 19 / 0 0 0 0 Taos............................ 59 20 58 19 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 66 33 60 31 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 64 29 62 28 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 59 36 57 34 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 59 31 58 30 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 60 38 60 37 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 63 35 62 33 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 65 29 64 27 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 64 35 63 32 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 62 23 63 21 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 64 33 63 31 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 63 23 63 21 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 65 33 63 31 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 63 24 63 22 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 59 36 58 35 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 64 34 63 32 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 66 36 65 33 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 57 35 56 33 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 58 34 57 33 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 60 32 60 30 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 62 26 62 23 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 58 31 57 31 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 62 31 60 31 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 62 32 62 32 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 63 36 68 37 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 63 39 61 38 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 69 32 55 29 / 0 0 0 0 Raton........................... 70 25 58 26 / 0 0 0 0 Springer........................ 71 23 61 25 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 70 33 60 30 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 74 38 57 33 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 72 32 58 27 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 76 33 63 29 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 73 34 62 34 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 78 33 63 33 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 73 39 65 33 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 75 38 66 34 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 76 36 66 30 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 75 39 70 32 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 74 42 67 36 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 74 40 67 33 / 0 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...42 LONG TERM....42 AVIATION...24