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FXUS65 KGGW 142030

AFDGGW



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Glasgow MT

230 PM MDT Sun Jun 14 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Isolated showers and thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon.



- Increasing temperatures through Tuesday. 



- Much cooler, wetter, and breezier conditions Wednesday.



- Near average temperatures and unsettled weather returns late in the

  week.





&&



.DISCUSSION...

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:



Northwesterly flow aloft will prevail the next few days. Embedded

shortwave influences will allow several chances for showers 

thunderstorms in the afternoons, especially near the MT/ND 

border. HREF max ensemble wind gust guidance suggest this 

convection may lead to the downward transfer of higher momentum 

air, leading to isolated wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph.



A cold frontal passage on Tuesday will result in enough low level

convergence and lift to initiate afternoon and evening showers 

and thunderstorms. Initial forecast soundings suggest PWAT values

approaching the 90th percentile, between 1 - 1.2", so steady 

rainfall could result from some of this and persist into the 

middle of the week. Forecasted CAPE values on Wednesday night 

have been hovering around 250 J/kg, however, with sufficient

frontogenetical forcing even modest CAPE will allow for more

widespread showers. Along with cooler temperatures, breezy 

conditions following the Canadian cold front may support a Lake 

Wind Advisory for Fort Peck Lake.



Ensembles point to a warm up toward more seasonable conditions

late in the week as a Pacific ridge begins to come ashore and

translate eastward over the Rockies and Northern High Plains.



FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:



Increased PoPs following collaboration. Heavy influence from GFS

1-hr for this afternoon and used a blend of HiRes FV3 and ARW &

SREF through Tuesday afternoon. Left NBM for Tuesday 

night/Wednesday.



Overall confidence is high on a cool and wet midweek, but would 

point out below normal confidence on gusty winds with 

thunderstorms on Monday due to the isolated or limited coverage 

expected.





&&



.AVIATION...

UPDATED: 1930Z



FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR



DISCUSSION: Mostly sunny skies this afternoon with low end chances

for light isolated showers in the early evening. Opted to leave

out of TAFs at this time. Mid level, overcast skies characterize

the region tonight and continued chances for rain showers during 

the day tomorrow.



WINDS: Northwest winds 10 to 15 kts, increasing to 15 to 25 kts

tomorrow.



&&



.GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.

&&



$$



weather.gov/glasgow