####018003651#### FXUS66 KHNX 070659 AFDHNX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 1059 PM PST Sat Dec 6 2025 .UPDATE... AQ and Aviation Updated && && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Fog and low clouds will continue each night and morning across the San Joaquin Valley into early next week. Dense fog will also develop at times in the lower Sierra foothills, coastal ranges, and the Grapevine. 2. A gradual warming trend will occur in the mountains and desert until next week, as the high pressure pattern continues over the region. && .DISCUSSION... Overcast conditions continue to linger over the San Joaquin Valley this morning, with foggy conditions and low visibilities in the foothill areas where the cloud deck is interacting with the local terrain. Clearing is less favorable today compared to previous days due to a prominent high pressure ridge building in from the west. This ridge will maintain the low level temperature inversion currently in place for much of the day, keeping the moisture trapped around one thousand feet above ground level. With minimal clearing, fog has less potential for tomorrow morning in the valley areas, with less than a 30 percent chance for visibilities less than a quarter mile. These chances improve to 50 to 60 percent for the foothill areas of the Sierra Nevada, Kern County Mountains, and the Coastal Range. This pattern is expected to continue through the weekend as the high pressure remains present over the region. As we move into next week, cluster analysis expresses confidence in the high pressure strengthening over central California. As the high pressure builds, a warming trend will take place, especially in the area mountains and foothills where afternoon highs will rise well above season averages. By Wednesday, areas including (but not limited to) Oakhurst, Tehachapi, and Three Rivers have a 50 to 60 percent probability to exceed 65 degrees, some five to ten degrees above season average. Yosemite Valley, which averages around 45 degrees at this time of year, has a 70 to 80 percent probability to exceed 70 degrees Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday of next week. && .AVIATION... IFR to MVFR ceilings and visibilities are expected to prevail for much of the San Joaquin Valley. These conditions will continue through 18Z Sunday. LIFR conditions will also persist in the coastal ranges, Sierra foothills, and the Kern County mountains due to the low stratus deck. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail in the Sierra Nevada and in the Kern County Mountains and Desert over the next 24 hours. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES... ISSUED: 12/06/2025 15:02 EXPIRES: 12/07/2025 23:59 On Sunday December 7 2025, Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups in Fresno and Kern Counties. Fireplace/Wood Stove Burning Status is: No Burning For All in Fresno and Kern Counties. No Burning Unless Registered in Kings, Madera, Merced, and Tulare Counties. Burning Discouraged in Kern (Greater Frazier Park Area) and Sequoia National Park and Forest. && .CERTAINTY... The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium. Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback. && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM PST Sunday for CAZ300-335. && $$ public...SM aviation....JPK weather.gov/hanford ####018009059#### FXUS65 KABQ 070700 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1200 AM MST Sun Dec 7 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1156 PM MST Sat Dec 6 2025 - There is high confidence for dry and warmer weather for most of central and northern New Mexico through next weekend, leading to snowmelt across midslope and high terrain areas. - There is a low to moderate chance that strong west to northwest winds create difficult crosswinds for high-profile vehicles in the Central Highlands Tuesday afternoon. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Monday) Issued at 1156 PM MST Sat Dec 6 2025 The Pacific portion of the front associated with the exiting trough has pushed through much of western and central NM, with a cooler and slightly drier airmass pushing in from the north. Winds associated with the backdoor portion of the front are slightly stronger as the front pushes in from the east, creating a brief period of gusty northeast winds with its passage. The cooler air funneling in tonight will translate to colder temps tonight in mid-slope and high elevation areas, but will disturb strong valley inversions from developing and that will keep temps a tad warmer tonight in these areas. Northwest winds slacken tomorrow as flow aloft weakens. High temperatures will be right around seasonal averages in most areas, with slightly below average temps in northern NM and slightly above average in southern areas. Light winds and near average temperatures will be the story once again on Monday. The only sensible weather difference will be increased cloud cover, particularly early in the day. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 1156 PM MST Sat Dec 6 2025 Dry northwest flow will dominate over the southern Rockies throughout the duration of next week, as ridging slowly amplifies over the eastern Pacific and California. A strong breeze will develop in the typical windy areas on Tuesday afternoon. NBM probs of wind gusts greater than 45 mph are still lower than 20% everywhere so these slightly stronger winds will likely be unimpactful. A couple of weak backdoor frontal passages will intrude eastern NM Tuesday night and again Thursday night, dropping temps a few degrees, but the overall trend will be a warming one as 700 and 500 mb heights tick upward. Thursday is on track to be the warmest day of the week, with highs reaching into the 70s in the southeast plains. Thanks to a downsloping breeze, NBM guidance is showing a 40% chance of temps reaching 80 degrees in Roswell. This would break the previous record of 79F set back in 1987. A few other locations such as Fort Sumner, Portales, and Clovis may approach record territory as well. By next Sunday/Monday, there is around 10% of ensembles that are finally breaking down the ridge and ushering in a more progressive pattern over the western CONUS that could finally bring some moisture into New Mexico. However, the other 90% are keeping anomalous ridging over the desert southwest, keeping the dry and warm pattern around for the foreseeable future. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1033 PM MST Sat Dec 6 2025 A Pacific front has pushed through most of western and central NM and now the backdoor component is swinging around from the east, currently located along a line between KSXU and KCVN. Briefly gusty winds along the leading edge of the front will diminish after around 12Z. LLWS may develop between now and 12Z in central and eastern areas and was therefore included in several TAFs, including at KABQ. Borderline MVFR cigs will continue to hug the northern mountains through the night, with VFR conditions prevailing elsewhere through the TAF period. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1156 PM MST Sat Dec 6 2025 A colder airmass will continue sliding in from the north tonight, with breezes weakening in most areas by sunrise as the pressure gradient weakens. Winds will be relatively light Sunday and Monday, resulting in poor to fair ventilation in most areas. Winds increase slightly Tuesday as northwest flow amplifies once again. This will likely create a few hours of elevated fire weather conditions from the Central Highlands southward, but fire weather concerns remain low given that ERCs are below the 50th percentile. Temperatures continue warming mid-week as northwest flow remains entrenched overhead. The dry and warm pattern looks to continue through at least the weekend, likely extending into at least the early portion of the following week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 49 23 45 23 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 43 11 43 10 / 5 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 50 20 43 21 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 56 18 49 18 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 50 22 47 24 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 58 20 51 19 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 53 23 49 23 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 57 29 50 28 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 52 25 49 26 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 60 23 59 23 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 63 26 65 26 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 37 11 38 13 / 5 5 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 47 23 41 25 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 48 21 45 23 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 46 18 40 18 / 0 5 0 0 Red River....................... 38 8 36 10 / 0 5 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 39 12 38 8 / 0 5 0 0 Taos............................ 49 15 42 14 / 0 5 0 0 Mora............................ 47 17 45 19 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 53 20 48 20 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 48 25 42 26 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 50 21 44 23 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 54 31 48 31 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 53 29 51 26 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 54 26 54 24 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 54 29 52 27 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 59 23 53 21 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 55 27 51 26 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 55 22 53 21 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 55 27 53 25 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 56 24 53 23 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 52 29 46 29 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 53 29 52 26 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 61 30 57 27 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 51 26 43 26 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 49 26 44 24 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 49 23 45 21 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 51 19 47 18 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 47 21 42 23 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 53 26 47 24 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 51 26 48 25 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 54 30 53 29 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 52 31 49 30 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 55 18 42 19 / 0 0 0 0 Raton........................... 59 18 46 18 / 0 0 0 0 Springer........................ 60 17 48 17 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 53 19 46 21 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 62 29 51 25 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 60 23 49 22 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 66 26 56 23 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 61 26 53 27 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 68 26 57 24 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 62 30 56 27 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 64 29 57 27 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 64 27 56 24 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 71 34 60 27 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 64 31 58 28 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 62 29 60 26 / 0 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...16 LONG TERM....16 AVIATION...16 ####018007861#### FXUS62 KRAH 070701 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 200 AM EST Sun Dec 7 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A front will hold to our southeast through the rest of the weekend, as weak high pressure settles over North Carolina and the Mid Atlantic region. An Arctic cold front will move southeastward through the area on Monday, while an upper level disturbance passes overhead. Chilly high pressure will build in from the north Monday night and Tuesday, then move to our southeast, allowing a southwest flow and milder temperatures to return for Wednesday and Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/... As of 200 AM Sunday... * Fog/stratus through the noon hour, then trending gradually to partly cloudy in the afternoon, but uncertainty is high. * Not as chilly as yesterday, but still below normal. * Clouds increase overnight, with a little light precip spreading into the Piedmont from the W late. We'll stay in a fast and flat WSW steering flow today, while at the surface, weak high pressure analyzed over NC and the Mid Atlantic holds in place before drifting offshore late. The most noteworthy issue today is determining when the morning fog and stratus will most likely burn off. The mid and upper levels will briefly dry out Sun behind the departing weak mid level perturbation and upper jet streak pushing ENE off the Mid Atlantic coast, which should allow some insolation that might help burn off the fog/stratus from the top. But with weak surface flow to inhibit horizontal mixing, and with steady slow warming taking place just aloft (~925-900 mb) helping to reinforce the surface-based stability, we could see low clouds hanging on in most areas well into the afternoon. Even if some of the area sees at least a few hours of partial sunshine prior to sunset, it may not be enough to warm up temps much. As such, forecast high temps today will be a few degrees below yesterday's expectations, mainly in the upper 40s to around 50, warmer than Sat but still below seasonal normals. Our attention then turns to a shortwave trough over WY/CO early this morning that will shift through the Mid Miss Valley and across TN toward W NC through tonight, propelled by energy diving into the trough from the Upper Midwest. This trough will be associated with an Arctic cold front that will move into the Mid South, Ohio Valley, and central Appalachians overnight. High and mid level clouds are expected to spread in from the west starting in the evening, and we'll see a trend toward weak mid level DPVA in our west late, but there's little opportunity for substantial moisture return into our area through the lowest several thousand ft AGL. PW does inch up across W NC late, but values are still near or just slightly above normal, thus any mechanisms to force ascent will need to work on what little moisture is attending the system. Will have mostly low chance pops spreading into the W CWA late, and given the stubborn pocket of drier low level air, any amounts initially should be very light. Based on high res guidance, there is a high chance for ice in the clouds, and if any of these hydrometeors can survive the layer of drier air just off the surface (in a seeder-feeder process), we may see a little light snow mixed in with light rain at the ground toward morning. But overall, the expected surface wet bulb temps are likely to be just above freezing through the night, favoring just liquid for ptype through tonight. Lows across the CWA will be around 31-36. -GIH && .SHORT TERM //... As of 120 PM Saturday... To be updated shortly. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 130 PM Saturday... -Chilly, below average temperatures expected Mon-Tues. -Light wintry mix possible Monday mainly across northern Piedmont. -Another chance for precip late Thursday into Friday. A cold front will move across the region on Monday, with cold air chasing the departing precipitation through the day. Morning temperatures will start near freezing along the VA border and in the mid to upper 30s elsewhere. Rain will be the primary precipitation type, but temperatures will gradually fall through the afternoon as colder air arrives. This may allow for a rain/snow mix across portions of the northern Piedmont—generally from Rocky Mount to Raleigh to Lexington. Before precipitation tapers off early Monday evening, a brief changeover to light snow is possible near the VA border. Any accumulations would be minor and mainly limited to elevated surfaces given warm ground temperatures. All precipitation will exit the region by Monday evening. By Tuesday morning, surface high pressure will settle over the Mid- Atlantic. A surge of overnight cold air will allow temperatures to drop into the upper teens to low 20s. With light to calm winds, any leftover moisture on roads may freeze, creating the potential for black ice during the Tuesday morning commute. High pressure will dominate Tuesday and Wednesday, supporting dry weather. Highs both days will range from the low to mid-40s. Lows will fall into the 20s Tuesday morning and into the mid to upper 30s Wednesday morning. Late in the week, another shortwave will move across the northern US, bringing increasing precipitation chances. While guidance shows some spread in the timing, track, and moisture availability, the general consensus suggests precipitation could return by late Thursday afternoon—mainly across the NW Piedmont—before a front sweeps through the region on Friday. Conditions should dry out again by Saturday morning. Behind the front, highs on Saturday will be cool, in the upper 30s to low 40s, with another round of lows in the upper teens to low 20s Saturday morning. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 1250 AM Sunday... * Dense fog this morning, followed by slowly improving aviation conditions today, and then another period of sub-VFR tonight. With no airmass change in the past couple of days, and none expected until Monday, dense fog has set in quickly across nearly all of central NC and will persist perhaps as late as 15Z this morning. With temps solidly below freezing across the Piedmont, many areas are susceptible to some freezing fog. Once the fog begins to lift, conditions should again be slow to improve today, with some guidance suggesting some sub-VFR ceilings at least temporarily lingering in the afternoon. Based on persistence forecasts, will lean toward the slow improvement today and indicate VFR potential after 18Z. Light and variable or southerly winds will prevail. Once again with the same moist airmass in place tonight, fog is a possibility, although high clouds streaming in from the SW ahead of an approaching upper disturbance may inhibit widespread dense fog. Outlook: A strong upper disturbance crossing the region on Monday will bring a mix of rain and snow, changing to snow in some northern areas before ending Monday evening. Chances of light snow are higher from INT/GSO to RDU and RWI. VFR conditions will then persist through much of early to middle of next week. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freezing Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST Sunday for NCZ007>011- 021>028-041. Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST Sunday for NCZ038>040-042- 043-073>078. Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EST Sunday for NCZ083>086-088- 089. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hartfield NEAR TERM...Hartfield SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...CA AVIATION...BLS ####018005182#### FXUS61 KRLX 070703 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 203 AM EST Sun Dec 7 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Dry today. A series of disturbances bring rain or snow showers this evening, and widespread wintry mix changing to snow Sunday night into Monday. A warmer, breezier system impacts the region by midweek. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 202 AM Sunday... Surface high pressure shifting east will maintain dry, mostly cloudy conditions today. A decaying low-pressure system arrives this evening, pushing a moisture-starved cold front through the region. This will result in low ceilings and light precipitation, which will transition to light snow tonight due to strong cold air advection. Highs this afternoon will generally be in the 40s, and lows in the 20s tonight. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 202 AM Sunday... Lingering snow showers, mainly along the mountains, will gradually end Monday afternoon. Most areas will see accumulations under 1 inch, though the central mountains may see high-end localized amounts of 2 to 3 inches. Temperatures will plummet behind the cold front on Monday. Highs will struggle to reach the mid 30s in the lowlands and the low 20s in the northeast mountains. Monday night will turn very cold, with lows dropping to the lower 20s in far southern WV and SW VA, and into the teens across SE Ohio and northern WV. Any remaining mountain snow showers will end quickly Monday night as the base of the trough exits the region. On Tuesday, high pressure building along the eastern mountains will create southwest breezes, warming temperatures back to normal levels (40s in the lowlands and upper 20s in the mountains). By late Tuesday night into Wednesday, a cold front associated with a strong clipper system tracking across the Great Lakes will bring the next chance for precipitation. Precipitation will start as liquid, transitioning into a wintry mix Wednesday night and Thursday. A warmer, breezier system impacts the region by midweek. Expect near to above normal temperatures Wednesday and Thursday. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 202 AM Sunday... A series of disturbances will move through our area towards the end of the week. Thursday will likely see a sloppy mix of rain and snow for most of us, with all snow expected in the northeast mountains. Much colder air rushes in Thursday night, turning any leftover precipitation to snow by Friday. Prepare for a deep freeze heading into the weekend. Highs on Friday will struggle to reach the mid 30s. By the weekend, temperatures drop even further, with daytime highs only in the low to mid 20s for the lowlands and dipping into the teens or single digits in the mountains. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 1234 AM Sunday... MVFR/IFR stratocumulus deck, evident on satellite and METARs, will gradually lift north, allowing for clear skies across the southern coalfields, including BKW at the time of writing. This sets up a VFR Monday afternoon, except perhaps for the afternoon return of MVFR stratocu at PKB and CKB, as a cold front arrives tonight with light precipitation. Calm wind overnight will become light from north northeast on Sunday. Light west to southwest flow aloft tonight will become light to moderate west Sunday morning, and then light northwest Sunday afternoon. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of transition from MVFR to VFR overnight into Sunday morning, could vary by a couple of hours. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SUN 12/07/25 UTC 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 EST 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H M M H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H L M M M M H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H M H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M M M H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M L H L L AFTER 06Z MONDAY... IFR possible in rain/snow Sunday night into Monday morning, and then again Wednesday night and Thursday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ NEAR TERM...ARJ SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...ARJ AVIATION...ARJ ####018007846#### FXUS61 KRNK 070703 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 203 AM EST Sun Dec 7 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Dry and mild today as weak high pressure remains in place over the region. A disturbance will pass across the region Monday, resulting in rain changing to snow. A few inches of snow possible, especially across the higher elevations. Dry and seasonable conditions Tuesday through Thursday. A much colder airmass arrives late week and into the weekend, resulting in very cold temperatures over the Mid-Atlantic. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 100 AM EST Sunday... Key Messages: 1) Dense freezing fog will continue this morning, gradually decreasing after sunrise. 2) Mild Sunday with partly cloudy skies. 2) Rain changing to snow early Monday, with snow then continuing through Monday afternoon/evening. Several inches of snow possible. A broad trough over much of the CONUS today, amplifying this evening with an upper shortwave passing overhead late tonight and into Monday. This will result in rain quickly changing over to snow through Monday. Areas of dense freezing fog will continue over Central Virginia through daybreak. Weak high pressure remains in place through this morning, but will begin to slide east into the Atlantic by late evening. A more potent high will dive southeast from Canada late tonight and then move east across the Great Lakes on Monday. Meanwhile, an upper shortwave with amplify over the Tennessee Valley and pivot across the Mid- Atlantic on Monday. As the wave passes overhead, high pressure wedges along the Appalachians and increasing isentropic lift will result in an area of precipitation developing across the western portions of the CWA after midnight tonight. With no true arctic airmass already in place, boundary layer thermals will be on the warmer side. Expecting highs this afternoon ranging from lower 40s in the mountains to upper 40s in the east. Tonight, temperatures cool into the mid/low 30s by midnight and precipitation will begin to move into the region. Taking a look at various forecast soundings from across the area, most support an initial p-type as rain, with a warm layer in the lowest few thousand feet of the profile. However, temperatures aloft favor snow growth with no warm nose advertised, thus higher elevations above 2500ft could certainly start as all snow. Those that do start as rain should gradually transition to snow as the column dynamically cools from top down. Locations east of the mountains will be the last to change from rain to snow and may not transition until after sunrise on Monday. Lowest confidence of rain turning to snow exists east of the mountains in North Carolina where it may take the longest to see the transition to snow. This will certainly limit snowfall amounts across north Central North Carolina. Even if it does transition, surface temperatures may make it difficult to see much accumulation. Mountain Empire of Virginia and the New River Valley will likely start as snow, thus expecting the highest amounts in those locations. Roanoke and east to Lynchburg/Danville will see a longer period of rain before changing to snow, so totals will be a bit lower there. Still uncertain how far north the heavier precipitation will extend, so for now, have kept snow amounts light along and north of the I64 corridor in West Virginia and Virginia. Will issue a Winter Weather Advisory for areas along and west of the Blue Ridge for snow amounts of 2 to 4 inches, with perhaps a few isolated higher amounts for locations above 3000ft. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 140 AM EST Sunday... Key Messages: 1) Dry and cool on Monday night through Wednesday evening. 2) Confidence is high that a fast-moving cold front will bring upslope snow showers to the mountains on Wednesday night. In the wake of departing low pressure, lingering snow showers will fade away as high pressure drifts southward over the lower Mid-Atlantic on its way to settle over the Southeast region, and dry weather will persist through Wednesday evening. Latest available weather data continues to support the development of upslope snow showers across ridges from southeast West Virginia into the High Country of North Carolina with the passage of a cold front on Wednesday night. Still some uncertainty as to snowfall totals with this event, but early indications are that totals along the west-facing ridges will be in the 1" to locally 4" range, and likely higher in western Greenbrier County, where the best fetch of moisture from Lake Michigan will be located within our service area. Lesser totals are expected further east to the crest of the Blue Ridge, with the potential for flurries reaching as far as the Parkway through dawn Thursday. Temperatures are likely to be cool enough for any snow to stick to roadway surfaces in some areas soon after the onset of precipitation Wednesday night, making for the potential of slick and locally hazardous travel conditions. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 150 AM EST Sunday... Key Messages: 1) Mountain snow showers will diminish on Thursday. 2) Uncertainty remains as to the development and impacts of a potential low pressure system on Friday into Saturday. Upslope snow showers will gradually diminish from east to west on Thursday as the flow of moisture from the northwest is cut off by changing wind direction across the Great Lakes area. Attention then turns to the potential of another low pressure system that may bring impactful weather on Friday into Saturday to the lower Mid-Atlantic. At this time, some of the latest forecast data has backed away from the development of this system, while other data suggest an organized system will make its way across the region, triggering another round of wintry conditions. While the latest official forecast does reflect a moderate probability of this system developing, confidence as to the timing and intensity of what may occur is low, and will continue to monitor for the development of any impactful weather systems heading into the end of the week. && .AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 130 AM EST SundaY... Areas of fog and freezing fog exist across central Virginia and north Central North Carolina this morning. This has resulted in IFR/LIFR conditions, which should persist through daybreak. Any fog/freezing fog east of an LYH-MTV-MWK line should clear up between 12-14z. After fog dissipated, expecting widespread VFR conditions through tonight. .EXTENDED AVIATON OUTLOOK... Monday: Restrictions possible as a storm system brings S- to the area. Precipitation could begin as R- (or a R-/S- mix) before changing to S-. VFR conditions to return for Tuesday, remaining this way through Thursday. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM Monday to 1 AM EST Tuesday for VAZ007-009>020-022>024. Freezing Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for VAZ035- 043>047-058-059. NC...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM Monday to 1 AM EST Tuesday for NCZ001-002-018. Freezing Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for NCZ003>006-019-020. WV...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM Monday to 1 AM EST Tuesday for WVZ042>044-507-508. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BMG NEAR TERM...BMG SHORT TERM...NF LONG TERM...NF AVIATION...BMG ####018004685#### FXUS64 KMOB 070704 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 104 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1255 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025 - Patchy fog is possible across our interior-most counties in south Alabama and south Mississippi over the next few hours, especially north of Highway 84. - Additional rounds of light to moderate rain will occur today across coastal counties in Alabama/Florida and south-central Alabama, generally east of I-65. - A strong cold front sweeps across the area Sunday night into early Monday, which will lead to gusty winds area-wide on Monday. Temperatures fall below freezing for locations generally north of I-10 by sunrise on Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1255 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025 We have somewhat of a break in the rain at this hour as the band of rain showers remains anchored over the Gulf at the moment. While the rain may have briefly stopped, our attention turns to the potential for fog over the next few hours. Probabilistic guidance continues to indicate that our far interior counties in south Alabama/Mississippi, mainly north of the Highway 84 corridor, have the best chance for dense fog. While there are currently no observations of 1/4 mile or less, we can see the fog settling into northern Clarke County (AL) via webcams. The probabilistic guidance indicates that the fog should be short-lived and will shift further north and northwest of our area by 4-5am. For now, we are holding off on an advisory, but will continue to monitor observations, satellite imagery, and webcams. The rain shield should begin to build back into the area by 9-10am as a subtle mid-level impulse slides through the area. The best chances for rain reside across our coastal counties and parts of south-central Alabama, generally east of I-65. We will likely see another brief period where we dry out in the early evening hours before one last shot for showers ahead of the cold front. A potent cold front will sweep across the area overnight Sunday into early Monday. In the wake of the front, temperatures will fall into the 40s across much of the area (low 50s at the beaches) by sunrise on Monday. Highs on both Monday will struggle to get into the mid to upper 50s with breezy conditions throughout the day. Overnight low temperatures will plunge into the upper 20s to low 30s north of I-10 with mid to upper 30s near the coastline by sunrise on Tuesday. Locations north of Highway 84 can expect around 5 hours of below freezing temperatures early Tuesday morning. Wednesday and Thursday will generally be transition days with mild temperatures and a dry forecast. Another potent front will likely pivot into the area late in the week with the potential for even colder temperatures in its wake. We could see a few nights with temperatures in the 20s for most of the area (hovering around freezing at the beaches) if this pattern pans out. Beach Forecast - Rip current risk remains LOW through Friday in the current pattern. 07/mb && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1122 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 Ceilings will continue to fall overnight. MVFR to IFR ceilings persist at this hour and will fall to LIFR in the pre-dawn hours. Visibilities will likely fall into the MVFR to IFR categories around sunrise at the terminals. Patchy fog is possible further inland across south Alabama and south Mississippi by sunrise. Rain showers are expected through the day on Sunday ahead of a strong cold front. 07/mb && .MARINE... Issued at 1255 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025 Showers will persist through early Monday morning ahead of a strong cold front. Northerly winds will increase to advisory levels on Monday with conditions subsiding by Monday night. Another round of strong northerly winds are expected by next weekend. 07/mb && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 64 49 58 34 / 30 70 0 0 Pensacola 63 52 59 39 / 50 70 10 0 Destin 63 53 61 41 / 70 70 10 0 Evergreen 61 44 58 29 / 30 70 0 0 Waynesboro 61 44 55 29 / 20 70 0 0 Camden 59 42 54 28 / 20 70 0 0 Crestview 60 48 59 32 / 50 70 10 0 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Monday to midnight CST Monday night for GMZ630>632-650-655-670-675. && $$