####018008560#### FXUS65 KABQ 160847 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 247 AM MDT Thu Jul 16 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1237 AM MDT Thu Jul 16 2026 - Mostly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms storms will favor the central mountain chain westward each day with a risk of lightning, small hail, gusty outflow winds, and localized flash flooding. - There will be a low risk of flash flooding over the Ruidoso area burn scars through Thursday, then at least a low to moderate risk Friday through the weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday Night) Issued at 1237 AM MDT Thu Jul 16 2026 Monsoon moisture with seasonably moist PWATs will remain in place through the weekend as mid level high pressure centers persist over the CO/WY border and also on the TX/LA coast, and a weak upper level low remains stalled over west TX. Scattered to numerous showers and storms will generally drift westward off the high terrain each afternoon and evening, although some storms will move more slowly and erratically. Some cells will be capable of producing locally heavy rain at rates over 1 inch per hour with a risk of isolated flash flooding daily, especially over southern and western parts of the forecast area. At this time, the flash flood risk looks like it will be enhanced Friday through Saturday as an upper level low pressure system tracks inland over the Pacific northwest drawing somewhat richer monsoon moisture northward over NM. Wet microburst wind gusts may approach 60 mph from a few cells each day. With all of the moisture and convection, high temps will vary from near to around 8 degrees below 1991-2020 averages from day to day. Readings are forecast to climb a few to around 5 degrees above the averages over northeast NM this weekend as the upper high north of NM begins to drift a bit farther east. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Wednesday) Issued at 1237 AM MDT Thu Jul 16 2026 During the first half of the coming work week, the risk of locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding looks to continue along and west of the central mountain chain as the aforementioned upper highs consolidate into a stronger high pressure system elongated along an axis from eastern CO to OK, and another upper level low pressure system moves inland over the Pacific northwest drawing rich monsoon moisture northward over AZ and western NM. The west TX upper low will drift westward then northward with this rich monsoon flow, but models generally depict it enhancing convection over northwest Mexico and AZ, rather than NM. Storms will begin to stream more toward the northwest at a little faster pace Monday and Tuesday, then more toward the north northwest on Wednesday. The stronger high pressure system northeast of NM will produce hotter temperatures over central and eastern parts of the forecast area, where daily highs Monday through Wednesday should generally climb a few to around 5 degrees above 30-year averages. Meanwhile, readings farther west will continue to vary from a few to around 6 degrees below average. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1210 AM MDT Thu Jul 16 2026 Some light rain showers are forecast to linger into the late night hours over western areas. On Thursday, Scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms are forecast along and west of the central mountain chain, except for more numerous cells over the northern and western mountains, and northwest highlands. Storm motion Saturday will be toward the west and southwest at speeds around 5-10 mph. Some cells may have slow and erratic motion. Wet microbursts are expected with a few of the stronger cells capable of producing localized, brief, and erratic wind gusts over 50 mph. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1237 AM MDT Thu Jul 16 2026 With seasonably rich monsoon moisture in place, the main fire weather concerns over the next week will be strong and erratic thunderstorm outflow, as well as lightning. Wetting rainfall will be most likely along and west of the central mountain chain each day. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 91 62 89 62 / 40 40 30 40 Dulce........................... 86 48 85 48 / 80 50 70 30 Cuba............................ 82 56 81 55 / 40 40 60 50 Gallup.......................... 84 53 81 52 / 50 50 60 50 El Morro........................ 79 54 78 54 / 60 50 60 50 Grants.......................... 84 55 82 55 / 60 40 50 40 Quemado......................... 79 55 79 55 / 70 40 60 60 Magdalena....................... 81 61 81 61 / 40 20 50 40 Datil........................... 76 57 77 57 / 60 30 60 40 Reserve......................... 82 53 83 53 / 80 30 70 50 Glenwood........................ 87 55 87 54 / 70 30 60 50 Chama........................... 78 47 78 47 / 80 60 70 30 Los Alamos...................... 81 62 81 61 / 40 30 60 30 Pecos........................... 81 54 81 53 / 50 30 80 30 Cerro/Questa.................... 79 54 79 54 / 80 40 60 30 Red River....................... 70 46 71 46 / 80 40 70 30 Angel Fire...................... 75 40 75 40 / 70 40 70 20 Taos............................ 81 51 81 50 / 70 40 60 20 Mora............................ 77 52 78 51 / 50 30 70 20 Espanola........................ 89 60 88 59 / 40 30 50 20 Santa Fe........................ 82 61 82 60 / 50 30 70 30 Santa Fe Airport................ 86 59 85 57 / 30 30 60 30 Albuquerque Foothills........... 89 66 88 65 / 30 30 50 40 Albuquerque Heights............. 89 63 89 63 / 20 30 40 40 Albuquerque Valley.............. 92 63 91 62 / 10 20 40 40 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 90 66 90 65 / 10 30 40 50 Belen........................... 91 62 91 61 / 10 20 30 40 Bernalillo...................... 91 65 91 64 / 20 30 40 40 Bosque Farms.................... 90 61 90 60 / 10 20 30 40 Corrales........................ 92 65 91 64 / 20 30 40 40 Los Lunas....................... 91 63 91 62 / 10 20 30 40 Placitas........................ 87 65 86 64 / 30 40 40 40 Rio Rancho...................... 91 65 90 64 / 20 30 40 50 Socorro......................... 93 68 93 67 / 20 20 20 30 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 83 60 82 59 / 40 30 60 30 Tijeras......................... 84 60 83 59 / 30 30 60 40 Edgewood........................ 85 57 85 55 / 30 20 60 30 Moriarty/Estancia............... 86 53 86 52 / 20 20 50 30 Clines Corners.................. 81 55 81 54 / 20 10 50 20 Mountainair..................... 85 56 85 55 / 20 20 60 40 Gran Quivira.................... 83 57 83 56 / 20 10 60 40 Carrizozo....................... 86 62 85 62 / 30 10 60 40 Ruidoso......................... 78 55 78 56 / 40 10 70 30 Capulin......................... 79 53 81 52 / 10 10 10 5 Raton........................... 84 53 85 53 / 30 10 20 10 Springer........................ 85 55 86 54 / 10 10 20 10 Las Vegas....................... 80 55 81 54 / 30 20 50 20 Clayton......................... 87 61 89 61 / 0 5 5 5 Roy............................. 83 58 84 58 / 0 10 20 10 Conchas......................... 91 63 92 63 / 0 10 20 20 Santa Rosa...................... 86 61 87 61 / 0 10 20 20 Tucumcari....................... 91 64 91 64 / 0 5 10 10 Clovis.......................... 88 63 88 63 / 0 5 20 10 Portales........................ 89 63 89 63 / 0 5 20 20 Fort Sumner..................... 90 64 90 64 / 0 5 10 10 Roswell......................... 90 67 91 66 / 0 5 20 10 Picacho......................... 86 61 86 61 / 10 0 40 10 Elk............................. 83 57 84 57 / 20 5 70 20 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...44 LONG TERM....44 AVIATION...44 ####018008187#### FXUS61 KLWX 160847 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 447 AM EDT Thu Jul 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Lowered temps for today in coordination with adjacent WFOs. All agreed on no heat headlines. Still hot, but likely short of advisory criteria. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1)High heat and hazy skies look to continue through Friday. - 2)Thunderstorm chances increase this weekend and could potentially linger into Sunday as a front drops into the region. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...High heat and hazy skies look to continue through Friday. Opted not to issue any HYY today in coordination with neighboring WFOs. Still hot, but likely short of criteria for most of a given zone. Main reasoning was thickness of the Canadian wildfire smoke limits mixing. Similar conditions are expected Friday making the temp/heat index forecast more complex as an even thicker plume of Canadian wildfire smoke descends upon the region. Smoke concentrations will continue to increase Thu as an additional wave of smoke is sent southward from fires raging over Quebec and western Ontario. With that said, hi-res guidance (such as the RRFS-A and HRRR) hint at some slightly lower air temps and higher Tds today and Fri which could negate the need for heat headlines. This will be something that will need to monitor given what played out earlier today with the smoke aloft and subdued mixing. With the smoke, will come a few more days of poor air quality.The respective air quality agencies in MD and VA have issued Code Orange Air Quality Alerts for the DC/Baltimore metros today with additional alerts likely Fri as air quality worsens. In addition to the heat and smoke/poor air quality will be the concern for a few isolated showers/strong t-storms. SPC has a Marginal Risk (Level 1 out of 5) along the Mason Dixon today. Height falls/PVA will be negligible as most forcing for ascent will be associated with shortwaves in cyclonic flow passing to the N/NE. However, a halt in height rises paired with a slowly swrd sagging cold front and potentially bay breezes in areas where low-level flow goes weak in the vicinity of the front, may be enough when coupled with heating to result in a couple of isolated t-storms. There is further uncertainty given continued smoke aloft, as that could hamper heating and instability/convective initiation.Upstream over NE PA into NJ and the NYC tri-state area from earlier today may offer a clue as we will be in a similar environment across the MD/PA border Thursday afternoon. Any storms that manage to develop will have ample MLCAPE (2000-3000 J/kg) and DCAPE (1000-1500 J/kg) to work with, as well as notable flow in the mid and upper levels for mid July (40-50+ kts). If any storms manage to develop by late afternoon, they could at least briefly congeal into a small cluster and propagate south/ southeast toward and across the Chesapeake Bay during the evening hours. Damaging winds would be the primary (conditional) risk, but large hail is also possible given ample CAPE, shear, and low seasonably low wet-bulb zero heights around 11.5 kft. Any storms that we do see will help scrub out some of the smoke and improve air quality. KEY MESSAGE 2...Thunderstorm chances increase this weekend and could potentially linger into Sunday as a front drops into the region. SPC has entire CWA in Slight Risk (Level 2 out of 5) on Saturday... previous discussion follows. The surface front will drop further southward Fri. Additional smoke likely mixes into the region. Any convection on Fri will likely be limited to the higher terrain as the front washes out and pairs with orographic lift. Again, any storm that does form could be on the strong side. Fri night, the aforementioned front will begin to lift north ahead of a wave of low pressure and stout shortwave approaching from the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes. Increasing MLCAPE late at night with some moisture advection and modest low-level flow overtop the front may result in a few t-storms heading into early Sat morning, especially east of the Blue Ridge where a bit richer low-level theta-e ridge looks to pivot through. Forcing and shear will be ample on Sat, but the amount of instability is in question due to potential morning precip. Should enough instability develop, svr wx is possible with all hazards (damaging straight-line winds, large hail, a few tornadoes, and isolated instances of flash flooding) on the table. This aligns with CSU/NSSL/CIPS probabilities which suggest a 5 to 15 percent probs of svr wx during the weekend period. If the front does not make it entirely through the area, repeated strong storms will be possible on Sun. After a brief lull possible on Mon, another strong wave may approach by the middle of next week. && .AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR & mostly dry conditions will likely continue through Fri. Smoke aloft will result in a hazy appearance of the sky through Fri. Vsby reductions of 5-6 SM are possible corridor today and Fri with lower vsbys (2-4 SM) tonight into Fri, especially NE of IAD/DCA as smoke mixes south and closer to the sfc behind a weak front. Winds will vary between N/NW and SW over the next few days as that front sits nearby. A t-storm can't be ruled out this late afternoon and evening, mainly east of the Blue Ridge and in nrn MD but confidence is very low. Did add a PROB30 between 20-24z at both BWI/MTN where the confidence seems the highest for storm development off the bay breeze. Can't rule out a t-stprms near the mtns Fri afternoon. Periods of sub-VFR restrictions can be expected this weekend in any t-storms. The greatest coverage of storms likely Sat potentially lingering into Sun. Expect early morning low CIGS or patchy fog with afternoon/evening convection. Winds will remain light overall with chaotic motions in around t-storms. && .MARINE... Winds will waver between N/NW and SW over the next few days as a cold front dangles near the waters. Depending on the strength of the front and how far N or S it pushes, there may be brief/marginal periods of SCA level gusts, though these currently appear too brief with certainty too low for any headlines at the moment. A couple of t-storms can't be ruled out along the cold front this late afternoon and evening, and anything that does manage to form could produce rather gusty winds. More widespread t-storm activity and the need for SMWS will be needed over the weekend as a cold front approaches. S'ly channeling also returns to portions of the waters Sat into Sun. && .CLIMATE... Well above normal temperatures will persist through Thursday. Below is a list of record daily high and warm low temperatures for July 16 (Thursday). ================================================================= July 16 Record Daily High/Warm Low Temperatures ================================================================= Baltimore MD 104 (2024, 1988) 78 (1879) Washington DC 104 (2024, 1988) 84 (1983) Sterling-Dulles Airport VA 104 (1988) 74 (2013) Baltimore (Downtown) MD 105 (2024) 85 (2013) Annapolis MD 98 (1997, 1900) 79 (2024, 2013, 1955) Hagerstown MD 104 (1988) 76 (2024) Martinsburg WV 107 (1988) 77 (1983) Charlottesville VA 102 (1988) 82 (1983) Period of Record (POR) information (records since): Baltimore MD - July 1872 Washington DC - January 1872 Sterling - Dulles Airport VA - January 1960 Baltimore (Downtown) MD - July 1950 Annapolis MD - January 1894 Hagerstown MD - January 1899 Martinsburg WV - January 1891 Charlottesville VA - January 1893 && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CPB/EST AVIATION...CPB/EST MARINE...CPB/EST ####018006403#### FXUS63 KJKL 160849 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 449 AM EDT Thu Jul 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Hot summer weather continues today, with widespread heat indices in the 90s. A few locations may experience maximum heat indices around 100 degrees during the afternoon. - Chances for isolated to scattered afternoon showers and storms return to the forecast this afternoon, primarily near and west of I-75. - Shower and storm chances increase this weekend as high temperatures return to near-normal values in the 80s. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday) Issued at 448 AM EDT THU JUL 16 2026 Temperatures range from the upper 60s to lower 70s across eastern Kentucky early this morning under mostly clear skies. Fog has also developed along the mainstem rivers. The latest weather map shows ~1019 mb high pressure centered over the Lower Mississippi Valley. Aloft, broad ridging prevails over most of the CONUS. The exceptions to that are a prominent low over Eastern Canada/Northeast US and another low off of the Pacific Northwest Coast. A third very weak low is centered over Texas. Multiple weak perturbations are also noted within the upper-level ridge from Florida to over the Ozarks within a broad area of near 2.0 inch PWATs (PWAT values range from 1.1 in far eastern Kentucky to 1.6 inches near Lake Cumberland this morning). Through the short-term period, reinforcing energy passing through the trough over the Northeast US and East Canada will lead to a subtle lowering of heights with time over the Ohio Valley. At the same time, weak surface to 400 hPa mean flow will slowly advect higher PWATs into the area from the south and west, with most of eastern Kentucky having values near 2.0 inches by the end of the period on Friday evening. With those higher PWATs will also come greater instability (2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE) for locations near and west of the I-75 corridor today, and across all of eastern Kentucky on Friday. Shear will remain weak, though, so convection will be largely of the pulse type. It does appear that Friday will have a slightly better parameter space for the development of strong water-loaded updrafts and the possibility of downbursts, though strong outflow winds will be possible with stronger storms on either day. Additionally, the high PWAT environment and slow to nearly stationary storm motions could pose a threat of isolated heavy rainfall from stronger storms on either day. In sensible weather terms, look for a mostly to partly sunny Thursday across eastern Kentucky after any valley fog burns off, with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. High dew points between 70 and 75F will make those temperatures feel more like the mid 90s to near 100F. A few thunderstorms (30 to 40 PoP) are possible this afternoon and evening, primarily near and west of I-75. For tonight, look for variable cloud cover and the return of fog for the favored valley locales. It will be muggy with lows in the lower to middle 70s. For Friday, it will be partly sunny with highs once again in the upper 80s to lower 90s, though with a greater threat of showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening (40 to 50 PoP over the Big Sandy and 50 to 70 PoP elsewhere). .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 350 AM EDT THU JUL 16 2026 The extended period opens with Eastern Kentucky at the beginning of an active pattern as multiple rounds of showers and storms are expected Friday evening and again during the afternoons Saturday and Sunday. Monday will have a brief reprieve in active weather before a stronger cold front passes through the area Tuesday afternoon with more chances of showers and storms. Diving into the details at the start of the period, a large ridge of high pressure over the Intermountain West, along with troughing across much of Central and Eastern Canada will leave the Ohio Valley including Eastern Kentucky under quasi-zonal flow. Under this flow regime multiple embedded shortwaves will spill over the lee-side of the ridge into the Upper Midwest and Ohio Valley. As mentioned above these shortwaves will tend to produce showers and thunderstorms Friday evening, and again Saturday and Sunday. During this timeframe, PWATs of 2.0-2.1 inches advect into the area and potentially approach the 99th percentile relative to climo. This anomalously moist environment coupled with shower and storm chances has prompted the WPC to issue a marginal risks for excessive rainfall 12Z Friday through 12Z Sunday. As one of the embedded shortwaves in the trough over Canada progresses into the Northeast Sunday evening, Kentucky will find itself in-between systems. The next upper level trough is modeled to pass through the Great Lakes Monday evening, with the system's cold front passing through our area sometime Tuesday. Model soundings suggest some of these storms have the potential to be on the stronger side, with surface based CAPE near 3000 J/kg and DCAPE over 1200 J/kg. Areas in or around any potential storm within this environment may experience erratic and gusty winds. Temperatures generally range from the mid to upper 80s during the afternoon hours before cooling into the mid 60s to low 70s at night through Tuesday. Somewhat cooler weather likely follows the front mid-week. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night) ISSUED AT 158 AM EDT THU JUL 16 2026 VFR conditions prevailed at the TAF sites at the 06Z TAF issuance. Valley fog is once again anticipated to develop overnight, with reductions most likely at KSME. KSJS, KLOZ, and KSYM could also see brief reductions to MVFR vsbys from patchier fog. Expect fog to mix out by mid-morning and give way to another day of cumulus clouds in the afternoon. Shower and thunderstorm chances increase at southwest terminals later in the afternoon, particularly near SME. Winds will remain generally light and variable for the duration of the period. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...GEERTSON LONG TERM...GINNICK AVIATION...GEERTSON