####018005033#### FXUS64 KLCH 241750 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1250 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday night) Issued at 248 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 High pressure remains the main factor influencing our weather and will continue to be so through the middle of the week, with mostly clear  skies and calm conditions.  The cool weather has come to an end, and highs will return to the 80s along with  humid conditions. The persistent warm air advection will continue today. This will lead to the possibility of fog in the early morning hours. On Thursday, a front will extend across north Louisiana. This will increase our pressure gradient and winds. Winds will be from the south, around 15 to 20 mph, with gusts up to 25 mph. A wind advisory will be possible for Thursday. Offshore winds will be faster, and a small craft advisory will be needed. Friday will be similar to Thursday: windy and cloudy, but with gusts up to 30 mph. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 248 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 As the forecast period begins, high pressure at the surface will be off the southeast US coast ridging into the forecast area providing southerly flow that will bring in warm and moist Gulf of Mexico air. This will provide very warm and muggy conditions. The main story however will likely be the winds. Deep low pressure is expected to form over the Southern Plains that will tighten the gradient across the region. South to southeast winds are currently projected to be sustained in the 20 to 25 mph range with gusts around 35 mph. Therefore, there is a good chance that a wind advisory may be needed for Saturday. Similar warm, muggy, and breezy conditions for Sunday. The only difference will be the upper level ridge will begin to weaken and shift to the east. This will allow a short wave to move west to east into the forecast area late in the day. By that time, plenty of Gulf moisture will be around with PWAT values ranging from 1.5 to 1.75 inches, with the higher values above the 90th percentile of SPC daily climo. Also, the higher numbers will be over western portions of the forecast area. Therefore, rain chances will be introduced to the forecast for southeast Texas and west central Louisiana to coincide with the higher moisture values and weakness aloft. Decent instability will also be noted on Sunday afternoon and evening with CAPE values over 2000 j/kg to go along with progged slow storm motion speed with movement becoming parallel to the mid level flow. Therefore, with the high atmospheric moisture content, the stronger convection will have some potential to produce high rainfall rates over a prolonged time for a location. Therefore, WPC will have southeast Texas into a small portion of west central Louisiana outlined in a Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 4) Potential for Excessive Rainfall. The weakness aloft will continue to expand east on Monday and Tuesday keeping the atmosphere unsettled enough that showers and thunderstorms will remain in the forecast during that time period. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1241 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 VFR Conditions will persist through the early evening hours. SCT to BKN ceilings likely across most of SETX / SWLA trending into the early evening before ceilings lift above 10kft. Winds to remain light variable southerlies through the overnight hours. BR will have opportunity to form during early dawn hours of Thursday with light winds. Guidance indicates VIS impacts to MVFR are possible, but to a patchy extent before diurnal heating mixes out low level moisture shortly after sunrise. Thus a brief reductions to MVFR or IFR through the twilight / early dawn hours may occur. Hereafter, any BKN MVFR ceilings will lift into the midday hours Thursday. && .MARINE... Issued at 248 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 Onshore flow will slowly increase today with winds building to 10 knots by the evening. During this time waves will be less than four feet. Starting on Thursday winds will start to increase becoming moderate to strong. Winds will continue to increase on Friday with gusts up to 30 knots. Waves will also build in the outer waters possibly reaching 7 feet or more by Friday morning. Lakes and bays will be rough to very rough conditions. A Small Craft Advisory is likely starting on Thursday and lasting through Friday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 61 85 65 85 / 0 0 0 0 LCH 64 82 70 82 / 0 0 0 0 LFT 64 85 69 85 / 0 0 0 0 BPT 65 83 70 83 / 0 0 0 0 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM....30 AVIATION...30 ####018009447#### FXUS61 KBOX 241751 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 151 PM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm today with the passage of a cold front. Dry but cold overnight, which prompt a Freeze Watch for parts of Connecticut, Rhode Island, and southeast Massachusetts. More seasonable conditions develop for the weekend. Another chance for showers comes mid to late weekend then again late Mon or Tue. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 145 PM update... Scattered convective showers along the cold front moving into western MA. SBCAPES 200-300 J/kg with steep low level lapse rates 8-9 C/km in western MA and this environment will advect eastward ahead of the cold front so can't rule out an isolated t-storm as these showers move east across SNE through 22z. Shower activity will be brief, not lasting much more than an hour in any location, but a brief downpour and small hail is possible. Previous discussion... Scattered light showers ahead of a robust mid level trough are moving through SNE. These showers will exit by this afternoon then will have to watch for development of scattered convective showers along the cold front this afternoon. Partial sunshine expected to develop this afternoon ahead of the front and surface heating below steepening mid level lapse rates will help to contribute to marginal instability with CAPES up to a few hundred J/kg. This will help fuel scattered convective showers along and just ahead of the cold front and can't rule out an isolated t-storm or 2. Small hail is possible given steepening mid level lapse rates assocd with the cold pool aloft. Timing of the convection will be 18-20z in the interior and 20-22z across RI and SE MA, possibly a bit later over Cape Cod. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... Highlights: * Freeze Watch expanded for Wednesday night, and then potential elevated fire weather concerns on Thursday. As advertised, the overnight hours will be rather cold. Clouds clear quickly as the cold front races off shore and PWATs fall. The wind direction shifts, west to north, advecting an unseasonably cold air mass over southern New England. 925mb temperatures range between -3C and -5C. As mentioned, the previous forecaster brought up a good point, there are two ways we can achieve unseasonably low overnight temperatures - one being traditional radiational cooling - second is to mix down the colder air aloft. Right now, most of the night looks to have a well mixed boundary layer with steady north wind. This will transport those colder temperatures aloft to the surface. By the end of the night, we could decouple for the last two or three hours - with clear sky cover this will help maintain and or lower the temperatures further. Overnight lows are in the low and middle 20s across northern Massachusetts, southern coast could have overnight lows in the upper 20s to low 30s. For temperatures, did us a blend of the forecast and the BC of the MAV. Cape Cod and Islands is tough, do think the SST will help to keep above freezing, but could be close. Just last night, MVY saw the temperature freefall into the upper 20s with calm wind and clear sky. During this update we expanded the Freeze Watch to southern Rhode Island and south coast of Massachusetts. We did omit the islands and Cape Cod. Day crew will need to evaluate guidance and decide whether to go with a freeze warning or frost advisory in the area where the frost/freeze program is active. Heading into Thursday we are dry but noticeably cooler with highs only reaching into the middle 50s. A dry air mass settles over the region thanks to 1030mb high moving south out of Canada. Winds are northwest and less than 10 mph, possibly becoming more light and variable by late afternoon. Elevated fire weather concerns because of very low values of RH due to low dewpoint temperatures in the teens. Minimum values of RH are in the upper teens to upper 20s away from the coast. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Key Points... * Dry weather through Saturday. * Chance of showers Saturday night then again around Tuesday. * Temperatures increase each day through Monday when some could see highs near 80. Details... Surface high pressure centered over New York Thursday night remains in control through Saturday, crossing New England on Friday. Subsidence beneath the high and very little moisture in the column will lead to dry conditions and sunny skies each day through Saturday (though clouds will begin moving in to start the weekend). Given the high pressure overhead winds will be light and variable. Thus, we'll see a few nights of good radiational cooling with the typical cool spots dropping into the upper 20s to low 30s. By Friday the mid level ridge axis shifts over or just east of SNE with low/mid level winds backing to the SW bringing warm advection. 850 mb temps rise from -3C on Thursday to 0C on Friday and +3C by Saturday afternoon. This will translate to highs steadily increasing each day, into the mid to upper 60s in the interior by Saturday. Areas along the south coast will be cooler (50s) thanks to onshore flow. The dry pattern breaks down briefly for the second half of the weekend as a passing warm front will bring not only increasing cloudcover Saturday afternoon but the chance for widespread light showers Saturday night. It will be trailing behind a surface low which lifts into Canada; with little forcing and mid level ridging overhead, not expecting much out of these showers. A more substantial system looks to arrive with a shortwave on or around Tuesday. Something of note for the start of the week will be the very warm day on Monday (well into the 70s in the interior). The chance for a backdoor front to spoil things is looking less likely, though a seabreeze will likely keep those along the coast in the 60s. Meanwhile, the CT Valley may see temperature approaching 80F! The odds temps AOA 80F are between 40-50% per the EPS/GEFS ensemble guidance. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Forecast Confidence Levels: Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Through 00z... VFR, but a brief shower or isolated t-storm possible with brief lower conditions as area of scattered showers move across SNE through 22z. SW winds shifting to NW 18-22z from W to E. Gusts to 25 kt. Tonight...High confidence. VFR with rapid clearing. NW gusts to 25 kt along the coast, diminishing after 06z. Thursday and Thursday night...High confidence. VFR. Light winds, with local sea breezes developing by afternoon. KBOS TAF...High confidence. Brief convective showers possible 20-22z as the cold front moves through, but VFR persists. Low risk for thunder but not enough confidence to include in TAF. Wind shift to NW after FROPA with gusts to 25 kt, diminishing after 06z. Sea breeze develops 15-17z Thu. KBDL TAF...High confidence. Brief convective showers possible through 20z as the cold front moves through, but VFR persists. Low risk for thunder but not enough confidence to include in TAF. Wind shift to NW after FROPA with gusts to 20 kt, diminishing after 00z. Outlook /Friday through Sunday/... Friday through Friday Night: VFR. Saturday: VFR. Breezy. Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance SHRA. Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels: Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Today through Thursday...High Confidence. Rain showers and an isolated thunderstorm with a cold front passage later today. Cold front will bring a wind shift from southwest to west/northwest this afternoon, then becoming northerly overnight. Wind gusts increasing 25 to 30 knots and increasing seas to over 5 feet, this lead to a Small Craft Advisory through late Thursday morning. Surface high pressure comes down from Canada with easing winds and diminishing seas for Thursday afternoon. Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/... Thursday Night through Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Saturday Night through Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Thursday morning for CTZ002>004. MA...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Thursday morning for MAZ017-018-020-021. RI...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Thursday morning for RIZ001>007. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ231>235- 251. Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ250- 254>256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BW/Dooley NEAR TERM...KJC SHORT TERM...Dooley LONG TERM...BW AVIATION...KJC/BW MARINE...BW/Dooley ####018006806#### FXUS61 KBTV 241751 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 151 PM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A strong cold front is sagging south with light to moderate rain showers over the region. Temperatures will drop throughout the day, and a brief period of snow is possible as precipitation tapers off. Only minor accumulations of snow are expected given a period of warm temperatures ahead of the falling snow. After one cool day on Thursday, conditions will begin to warm and become above normal for the new work week. Another interval of sharp drying takes place Thursday and Friday. Rain chances will return later Saturday into early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 127 PM EDT Wednesday...Quick update to the forecast. Cold front has cleared the Champlain Valley and gusty north winds 20 to 30 mph have been reported along and behind the frontal passage. Have upped the wind gust forecast slightly for this afternoon, although it's difficult to find guidance that is as high as the observed winds. Have thus trended towards the NBM 90th percentile wind gusts. Wind gusts will remain in the 15 to 25 mph range for most of the afternoon. Temperatures have sharply fallen along and behind the front, and rain showers have changed to rain/snow mix for many areas. The ground temperatures are warm enough to prevent any snow accumulations on hard surfaces, so not expecting any issues with the roads. Previous discussion follows. The anticipated sharp cold front now resides just west of the St. Lawrence Valley. Dry air has remained firm across Vermont, and we've seen little precipitation. Some high res guidance event indicates the potential for a broken line by morning as the boundary shifts into Vermont and 100- 200 J/kg of CAPE develops this afternoon. Perhaps a rumble of thunder could occur in Rutland and Windsor County, but have made no explicit mention. Overall, guidance is less bullish on cold air and pulled back on snowfall, and this is reasonable considering the warmth due to the lack of precipitation. There could still be a dusting around 1000 ft or higher, and maybe an inch for summits. It will still be a sharp boundary with 5 to 10 degree drops in temperature over a 2 to 3 hour time frame with a fast switch from southwest to northwest winds. The air mass coming in is very dry. Once the front is south, clouds will quickly clear out tonight. Cool northwest flow will bring temperatures into the teens across the Adirondacks and parts of the Northeast Kingdom, with low to mid 20s across the region. The only area that may hold onto 30s will be near Lake Champlain. Conditions on Thursday will be fairly cool with 40s, which is about 10 degrees below normal for this time of the year. Fortunately, it will not be too breezy, with mainly 10 to 15 mph northwest wind gusts. So it won't feel too raw. It will be very dry, though. Single digit to lower teen dewpoints will shift into the area. So more 20 to 30 percent relative humidity values in the afternoon are on the table, but today's rain and lack of winds will preclude fire weather concerns. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 321 AM EDT Wednesday...Dry conditions will continue into Thursday evening as the region remains under the influence of high pressure. Clear skies and light winds are expected, which will allow for strong radiational cooling, making for a cold night. Overnight low temperatures will drop into the 20s to near freezing once again. Another sunny and dry day will round out the work week as the region remains under high pressure. After a cold start to the day, daytime highs will climb into the 50s and low 60s, which will feel pleasant with the ample sunshine expected throughout the day. Winds will remain light throughout the day, which will help limit fire weather concerns. Another favorable raditional cooling night is expected for much of the night, before increasing clouds begin to move in. Overnight lows will be cold but not as cold as the night prior, with temperatures in the mid 20s to 30s. The coldest spots will be across the Northeast Kingdom as clear skies will continue for most of the overnight hours. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 321 AM EDT Wednesday...Precipitation chances will increase as we head into the weekend into early next week as several shortwaves rotate into the region, as the upper level ridge shifts eastward and begins to flatten out. Much of Saturday looks to remain dry, with increasing chances of showers heading through the evening, although guidance is still fairly spread with the exact timing of these features and how quickly the ridge breaks down. The other thing to consider is the amount of dry air across the region these features will have to overcome for measurable precipitation. Given the uncertainty at this point, continued to stick with the NBM, with some showers expected Sunday into early next week. Temperatures will continue to warm up through the weekend, with highs in the 60s and low 70s by early next week. The warm temperatures and diurnal heating will allow for some instability to develop in the afternoons early next week, with the potential for some rumbles of thunder. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Through 18Z Thursday...A sharp cold front continues to move through Vermont, just poised to exit to our east over the next couple of hours. As the front moves through, expect a winds to quickly shift out of the north, gusting to 15 to 30 mph for the remainder of the evening. As temperatures rapidly fall along and behind the front, rain showers are transitioning to a brief rain/snow mix behind the front. Showers and MVFR conditions will only continue for a few more hours before drier air moves in and precipitation comes to an end. Expect skies across the forecast area to be VFR by 00Z, and remain VFR through the remainder of the TAF period. Outlook... Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely SHRA. Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Chance SHRA. Sunday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Chance SHRA. Monday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Haynes NEAR TERM...Duell/Haynes SHORT TERM...Kremer LONG TERM...Kremer AVIATION...Duell ####018008191#### FXUS63 KEAX 241752 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 1252 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Heads Up: Multiple rounds of thunderstorms beginning Thursday, continuing through Sunday. - Severe thunderstorm chances Friday, Saturday, and Sunday. - Heavy rainfall and the potential for flooding with Saturday Evening into Sunday system. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 239 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 06Z surface analysis reveals the surface ridge continues to develop across the Northern Plains early this morning. This trend will continue as mid-level ridging continues to evolve across the Rockies through today. What does that mean for us? Well, today is the last quiet, nice day, before we enter an active period marked by thunderstorms and rainfall Thursday through Sunday. With light north and finally east-southeast winds today, temperatures will remain seasonable, in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Tonight, with the mid-level ridge shifting east, influenced by the eastward dig of an H500 trough along the West Coast, broadscale forcing for ascent will develop across the Southern Plains and spreading northward through Thursday morning. Tapped into decent Gulf Moisture, rain and showers are expected to develop and spread northward across the region through Thursday morning. Forecast soundings suggest some skinny elevated instability could develop through the mid to late morning, resulting in rumbles of thunder. Through Thursday, as the H500 trough pivots over the Four Corners, anticipate ample recovery across the western High Plains of KS/TXPH/OKPH. With Mid-60s dew points developing from central Kansas into Oklahoma, instability will surge through the afternoon, with an axis of 1500 to 2500 J/Kg of SBCAPE. Mid-range guidance has been in decent agreement with the surface low center lifting out of Colorado into northwestern Kansas through the late afternoon. With a decent dryline positioned from near Goodland KS and South toward Guymon OK, expect convection to develop from the triple point in northwestern Kansas and southward as the cold front advances into western Kansas through the late afternoon and evening. For more details check out the latest SWODY2 from SPC and discussions from the KS, TX, and OK WFOs. For our area, warm sector convection will likely be ongoing through the day across far eastern Kansas and western Missouri, with activity spreading east through the evening and overnight into Friday. A few strong storms may exist during this period, but no widespread severe weather for our area is expected at this time. Friday, as mentioned yesterday, lingering showers/convective activity through the morning would have some limited influence on recovery through midday to the afternoon. The Aforementioned mid- level short wave is expected to lift east-northeast across central Nebraska by midday, maintaining a negative tilt, with the surface low center nearby. Most guidance has ample recovery through the early afternoon, with daytime heating and southerly flow combining for a ribbon of 2000 J/Kg SBCAPE extending from eastern Oklahoma across eastern Kansas into northwestern MO. The focus for severe convective development will be along this axis, but closer to the surface low in southeast Nebraska, northeastern Kansas, and northwestern Missouri where the better dynamics will be. Primarily, latest solutions from mid-range guidance suggests the cold front will overtake the dryline late in the afternoon, with convection firing from southwestern Iowa into northwestern Missouri and south along the boundary as it advances eastward. There is one big issue of note, and I made note of it yesterday. With such an aggressive negative tilt to the trough, southwesterly flow through the lower levels will more than likely result in a decent EML, and forecast soundings confirm this. Now, the front will provide some assist in breaking the capping inversion, but convection may be delayed until later in the afternoon to the early evening because of this. The influence of the EML will probably be felt the further south down the front one travels. The effects are less of an issue in far northeastern Kansas and northwestern Missouri, where initial convection is most likely. All modes of severe weather will be possible given deep layer shear supporting organization. Shear orientation also suggests initial convection to be single cell, with a brief period of backing surface winds in northwest Missouri a concern. Large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a tornado or two are possible with the strongest updrafts Friday afternoon and evening. Convection will steadily exit east overnight through Saturday morning. Saturday, there will be a lull in activity through the morning to midday. Through sunrise, out west, another churning H500 trough crossing the Rockies will emerge on the western High Plains through the day. Ahead of this system, ample return flow from the Gulf will pool across the Plains, with broadscale ascent through the warm sector driving scattered convection through the day from Oklahoma and Arkansas and north. As the surface low lifts east into western Kansas, once again, organized convection will develop along the intersection of the cold front and the dryline, as well as along the warm front across central Kansas through the afternoon and evening. The big concern I have for our area late Saturday into early Sunday will be excessive and continuous moderate to heavy rainfall. With pwats pushing 1.50 to 2.00 inches and the warm front extended from eastern Kansas to northeastern Missouri, training thunderstorms are going to be a big concern overnight. The track of greatest rainfall still looks to be across northern into northeastern Missouri, but thunderstorms will result in locally heavy rainfall and the increased risk of rises on area streams and rivers and flash flooding. Even with the moderate drought for much of the area, the flooding concern exists. Additionally, a few severe storms remain possible, with hail and wind the primary concerns at this time. We'll need to watch any storms that anchor to the warm front given the enhancement of shear brought on by the boundary. Thunderstorms will continue through Sunday across the area, with rainfall amounts from Saturday night to Sunday morning totaling around 2 to 3 inches in many locations, with locally higher amounts possible. Long range guidance continues to suggest modest recovery of the airmass through midday ahead of the northeast churn of the upper short wave over Iowa. In response, a modest instability axis will develop through central Missouri, with convective development expected along the trailing cold front through the afternoon. This will bring us our last window of potential strong to severe convection for the weekend, with focus from central into eastern Missouri. Hail and wind will be the primary concerns, but again, farther north, nearer the more favorable shear environment, a tornado or two cannot be ruled out. Precipitation should end to the east Sunday night. By the end of the weekend, the overall rainfall total from Thursday to Sunday could be upwards of 4 to 6 inches of rain. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1252 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 VFR conditions prevail throughout the TAF period. Winds will continue to be light out of the east-southeast due to the surface high situated over the Great Lakes region. Chances of showers and low ceilings may bring MVFR conditions tomorrow morning, however, this was not mentioned in the TAFs due to low confidence at this time. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Kurtz AVIATION...Collier/Hayes/Pesel ####018007824#### FXUS63 KICT 241753 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 1253 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Two rounds of severe weather possible Thursday: Thursday morning, and again Thursday night. - Conditional severe chances east of the Flint Hills Friday afternoon/evening. - Another round of severe weather anticipated on Saturday; likely to impact most of the area. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 251 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 Today... A few showers are developing off of a mid-level baroclinic zone this morning, but rain is struggling to make it to the ground given stout low-level dry air. Still, sprinkles to light rain may affect some locations through the morning hours. Later today, showers and storms are likely to develop across Oklahoma, and this activity may sneak northward into southern Kansas this afternoon/evening; however, rain chances will be low (at or below 30%). As moisture surges northward tonight, more widespread shower and storm coverage is expected, although more robust activity will likely wait until Thursday morning to impact the area. Thursday... There are numerous scenarios that could play out on Thursday, but a couple of them stand out with some of the short term modeling. Most of the 00Z CAMs tonight show moderate elevated instability surging into southern Kansas early Thursday morning as mid-level moisture pushes northward. A cluster of storms is progged to develop along the mid-level baroclinic zone, which will likely be located across central or south-central Kansas early Thursday morning. Sufficient shear and instability should be enough to support organized elevated storms Thursday morning for much of southern and eastern Kansas, and it's possible an organized MCS could impact many locations east of the I-135 corridor. Main concerns with any storms Thursday morning will be large hail (perhaps larger than quarter-sized), and isolated damaging wind gusts. This is where a lot of uncertainty begins to enter the forecast. Many of tonight's CAMs suggested that elevated convection would throw an outflow boundary westward throughout the day. The first scenario, and the one that is looking increasingly more likely, is that this outflow boundary restricts the warm sector to the CWA's south and west. This would limit significant severe storms (most likely supercells developing off of a dryline in the High Plains) to southwest Kansas and the OK/TX Panhandles. The other scenario, like what is depicted off of the HRRR and Fv3, has the outflow boundary stay quite a bit further east allowing for a much larger eastward extent of moist, unstable air. This, along with backed surface winds within the OFB's proximity, could lead to enhanced tornado potential Thursday evening for locations west of the US-281 corridor if storms move far enough east before CIN builds in during the nighttime hours. Either way, the dryline/Pacific front is expected to surge eastward, and with background synoptic lift, additional storms should develop across western Kansas and move eastward across the forecast area overnight. However, storm mode will likely be mixed to linear, and the threats for areas along and west of the Flint Hills will be limited to marginal severe hail and damaging winds. Friday... Ongoing storms overnight will accompany a Pacific Front/dryline progressing eastward across the area. However, models are suggesting the progression of this feature may be a bit slower than previously forecast. As such, a moderately unstable airmass will likely be in place Friday afternoon for locations along and east of the Flint Hills. If a storm were to develop during the afternoon hours, the environment would be able to support supercells capable of all modes of severe weather including large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes. That being said, the upper trough is expected to be exiting the region to the north and east, and height rises across the area would likely induce subsidence across much of eastern Kansas which would hinder storm development. As a result, storm coverage is expected to be isolated at best for locations across southeast Kansas. The threat for severe storms should come to an end by sunset Friday evening as any ongoing storm should be in Missouri by that time. Saturday... Low-level moisture should gradually return to north and west overnight Friday into Saturday morning as a second upper trough approaches the region from the Rockies. There is some variability between some of the mid-range global models, but the triple point should be somewhere in the vicinity of south- central Kansas with a frontal boundary extending northeastward into the Missouri Valley and a dryline extending southward into western Oklahoma. By midday Saturday, current modeling suggests capping may be next to non-existent, and it's possible thunderstorms may initiate early in the afternoon even without optimal synoptic support. Moderate instability and sufficient shear should support organized storms, but storm mode has the potential to be quite messy, especially further north where storm motions will be parallel with the frontal boundary. The frontal boundary and dryline will likely retreat throughout the day, and with better synoptic support arriving later in the afternoon/evening, multiple rounds of storms may be possible. Any storm that can remain discrete/semi-discrete will have the opportunity to produce all modes of severe weather, including tornadoes. Given the possibility of training thunderstorms, flooding caused by heavy rainfall may be a threat that needs to be taken into consideration, even with how little rainfall the region has seen so far this spring. Storm chances should come to an end overnight from west to east. Sunday and Next Week... The moist, unstable airmass should get shunted well off to the east by midday Sunday, but portions of far southeastern Kansas may still see initial storm development Sunday afternoon before storms move into Missouri. Any severe threats would likely be limited to large hail and damaging winds. An upper ridge is expected to slide into the central plains by the beginning of next week, and warming trend is likely to ensue as a result. Rain chances should be low at best for much of next week, and the next opportunity for storms across the area will have to wait until the end of next week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1248 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 Shower/thunderstorm chances will gradually be on the increase tonight, persisting through at least Thursday morning, as 800-600mb warm/moist advection increases amidst increasing instability. The instability/shear combination should favor at least a handful of strong to severe storms capable of large hail, along with locally heavy rainfall. Covered this threat with PROB30 groups for now at all TAF sites. Additionally, the increasing low-level moisture will support widespread MVFR to possibly IFR ceilings later tonight through Thursday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 251 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 Friday: Very high grassland fire danger is expected Friday afternoon as dry air and windy conditions affect portions of central and south- central Kansas. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JC AVIATION...ADK FIRE WEATHER...JC ####018007039#### FXUS62 KILM 241753 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 153 PM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A weak backdoor cold front will bring only minor rain chances this evening. High pressure will build in from the north Thursday through Saturday with dry weather expected. A warming trend will develop early next week as the high shifts offshore. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... An upper trough moving quickly eastward across the Great Lakes this morning will whip across New England this afternoon. A cold front currently extending from Kentucky across the central Appalachians will move southeastward, reaching the eastern Carolinas tonight. In advance of the front, southwest winds should provide seasonable temperatures today with highs in the upper 70s to near 80 inland. Clear skies should last through early afternoon inland and through mid afternoon along the coast. The approach of the front should be accompanied by an increase in cumulus clouds, although these will initially be limited in depth by a weak subsidence inversion near 700 mb. As this inversion erodes late in the day and a belt of better mid level Gulf moisture arrives from the west, clouds should become more solid through this evening. There are conflicting signs in the models about how much shower activity will develop this evening. Although the airmass below 850 mb remains rather dry, there is little doubt we'll have at least a few hours of solid moisture between 800-600 mb, roughly 6000-15000 feet AGL. Isentropic analysis on the 300K surface this evening shows largely neutral motion through this moist layer. Forecast soundings suggest lapse rates roughly equaling the moist adiabat with minimal convective instability present. The GFS plus many of the high-res and convection allowing models still suggest good coverage of showers - however the Canadian, ECMWF, and multiple machine learning models based on EC input suggest much lesser chances. I'll cap forecast PoPs at 30 percent for this evening, only about 10 percent higher than previous forecasts, and hope that the 12z models runs converge on a clearer answer. The cold front should slide off the coast after midnight. Only modest cool advection is expected behind the front as skies clear and forecast lows range from 55-60, except cooler west of I-95. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... High pressure will build in behind exiting cold front Thursday. Winds will have shifted to the north with only a slight cooling off, bringing high temps to the mid 70s most places instead of high 70s from day before. Although water temps are creeping up a bit, they still remain in the mid 60s so expect cooler temps at the beaches and bleeding inland a bit in the afternoon sea breeze. A warm front extending from system over the Midwest will lift north with any weak lift or pcp remaining west of the area. The Coastal Carolinas will remain on the southern extent of high centered over the Mid Atlantic to New England coast on Fri. This will kick winds around to a more onshore direction, but overall expect mainly dry weather with just some clouds later in the day on Fri into the weekend. In the mid to upper levels a ridge will begin to amplify and build in from the west with some moisture in the way of higher clouds spilling over the ridge. Any chc of pcp should remain west of the local area and east over the waters Thurs and Fri. Should also see some aftn cu associated with the seabreeze. High temps on Fri will reach into the 70s again, but should be a few degrees lower than Thurs. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... High pressure will shift off the Mid Atlantic coast over the weekend with an onshore flow over the Coastal Carolinas. Some moisture convergence around the high and aftn sea breeze should produce some clouds and possibly a stray shwr, but not enough confidence to include any pcp chances in the forecast for now, especially with the ridge building overhead. The center of the sfc high will shift from the Mid Atlantic coast southward and will become situated off the Southeast coast. This will lead to winds veering around slowly through the weekend, becoming southerly Mon into Tues. This should help with warming and temps reaching back into the 80s into early next week. Overall, expect mainly quiet weather with limited potential for clouds and pcp with unseasonably warmer weather into early next week. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Overall VFR conditions should prevail through the period. A few showers could move across sites this evening with a cold front but impacts should be minimal. A minor concern continues for some BR in the wake of the boundary as the push is modest at best. Extended Outlook...There is a low potential for MVFR to IFR visibility in ground fog Friday morning. && .MARINE... Through Tonight... High pressure has moved a couple hundred miles off the Southeast coast. The pressure gradient along the high's backside has tightened and allowed southwest winds to increase to around 15 knots this morning. The approach of a cold front, currently located across Kentucky through the central Appalachians, should maintain these speeds throughout the day. This afternoon's seabreeze will locally increase speeds to near 20 knots, particularly along the Grand Strand and Pender/New Hanover county coastline. The front will arrive here at the coast after midnight, accompanied by a shift to northwest winds. Scattered showers may precede the front's arrival during the evening hours. Seas currently consist of 2-3 foot 10 second east swell along with a 2-3 foot wind chop. Combined seas should average 4 feet today, although it will be an awfully rough 4 feet given the direction differences in swells vs wind waves. The swell will continue through tonight although wind waves should diminish with the arrival of the front. Thursday through Sunday... Winds shift around to the N-NE behind front early Thurs as high pressure builds down behind cold front. Winds will become onshore over the weekend around 10 to 15 kts as high pressure shifts off of the Mid Atlantic coast. It will then shift southward and set up off of the Southeast coast leaving a more southerly flow of winds into early next week. The onshore flow will keep seas up 3 to 4 ft into the weekend and early next week. No headlines this period. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106- 108. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM NEAR TERM...SHK SHORT TERM...ABW LONG TERM...ABW AVIATION...SHK MARINE...SHK/ABW ####018006628#### FXUS65 KGJT 241754 AFDGJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 1154 AM MDT Wed Apr 24 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm and breezing conditions continue today with temperatures 10-15 degrees above normal and gusty winds 20 to 30 mph creating elevated fire concerns this afternoon. - Precipitation chances increase Thursday with widespread rainshowers expected across the mountains with some light snow showers expected on the higher terrain Thursday night and beyond. - Cooler and unsettled conditions expected through the weekend with an increasing probability of significant high elevation snow accumulations and travel impacts through early Monday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 248 AM MDT Wed Apr 24 2024 The split flow pattern over the Pacific Coastline will be breaking down over the next 24 hours but for now the southern stream has taken hold of Intermountain West to the Rockies. This has pushed the main plume of moisture to the North of our border as seen in the ALPW plots. Surface dew points indicate some low level moisture has pooled across our northern CWA however and will likely lead to some afternoon build ups and perhaps a few isolated showers with more wind than rainfall expected. The main storm system in southern stream will reach the SoCal coast by this evening move over Vegas by sunrise and then invade our CWA through Thursday brining wetter and cooler conditions back into the picture. Today however looks to be another very warm day with high still running some 10 to 15 degrees above normal in most areas. The current windy and dry period has created large vapor pressure deficits and when combined with another breezy afternoon fire weather concerns remain quite elevated...especially where fuels are susceptible to burning. So again this cannot be stressed enough...in parts of southwest Colorado and southeast Utah outdoor burning will be a high risk venture. A fairly mild night is expected as winds strengthen aloft with the downstream height falls and keep things well mixed. The bulk of the precipitation should hold off until after sunrise on Thursday. However moisture entrained in the stronger flow aloft will likely lead to showers over at least the higher portions of eastern Utah in the early morning hours as ascent increases with the emergence of the jet core around the base of the upstream trough. The core of the ascent then lift across the remainder of the CWA Thursday as the trough arrives and the cooler air aloft helps trigger more convection. Much cooler temperatures can be expected on Thursday as we settle back toward normal. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 248 AM MDT Wed Apr 24 2024 The low that moved up through SoCal will open into a wave passing over eastern Colorado by Thursday evening. As the trough moves out onto the Plains, the northerly flow on the backside pulls a cooler airmass down over the region dropping temps aloft about 4C. This instability will keep showers going overnight into Friday morning mostly over the higher terrain of the northern and central Colorado mountains with snow levels around 8500 feet. The flow aloft behind the trough is weak and won't scrub out the moisture in the lower levels of the atmosphere that saturated from the showers Thursday and Thursday night. The next trough, the second of the one-two punch, drops in through the Pacific Northwest Friday, cutting off over Utah Friday night and tracking east across the southern areas of the region Saturday before moving out onto the plains Saturday night. This second system is a bit stronger, pulling deeper moisture out of the northern Great Basin and Pacific Northwest with pwats of 0.6 to 0.7 inches and colder air aloft dropping temps another 4C. This system has a fairly clear cold frontal boundary that passes west to east across the region overnight Friday leading the trough. Look for a round of widespread moderate showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon with snow levels around 9,000 feet ahead of the front as the deeper moisture moves into the region. These storms will continue overnight with the frontal boundary and Saturday as the upper-level low passes overhead. Convective activity will decrease Saturday night into Sunday as the low moves east out over the Plains and ridging starts to build in from the west. Wrap-around moisture and orographics will keep light showers going mostly across the northern and central mountains with thunderstorms possible Sunday afternoon with diurnal heating. Skies clear out by Monday as ridging moves into the region. Models are in remarkable agreement through Sunday with these systems and even the ensembles show little dispersion. The one outlier seems to be the GEFS that digs the second trough farther west along the California-Nevada Border and deeper south over southern New Mexico, yet it still show little dispersion among its members. Guidance is bullish on the moisture with this system, especially in the lower valleys though pwats aren't all that impressive. Wouldn't be surprised if QPF drops in these areas when all is said and done, but the MJO does seems to be getting more active over the Pacific and it may be this that guidance is picking up. We'll just have to wait and see. For planning purposes, the higher elevations in the central and northern Colorado mountains could see over a foot of heavy snow between Friday morning and Saturday night with this system that may impact Vail and Rabbit Ears Passes Friday night and Saturday. Much like the system last week, conditions look to be worse to the east of our area in Summit and Grand Counties. Be sure to check for updates on this forecast and prepare accordingly if you'll be travelling in these areas this weekend. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1143 AM MDT Wed Apr 24 2024 VFR conditions will prevail at terminals this TAF period with gusty southwest winds this afternoon. A few scattered mid clouds will continue to form on the mountains today, with an isolated shower or gusty outflow possible under virga showers in northwest Colorado and northeast Utah. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...None. UT...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...15 LONG TERM...DB AVIATION...TGJT ####018006756#### FXUS64 KLUB 241754 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1254 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 332 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 The stalled surface front remains draped over the southern portion of the forecast area. Satellite analysis shows low clouds developing north of the boundary with a low deck of stratus clouds expected to develop across the far southern Texas Panhandle, Rolling Plains and portions of the northern South Plains by the morning hours as temperatures continue to cool overnight. These low clouds will continue to linger through the morning hours before clearing. Meanwhile, despite weak upper ridging and westerly winds, the next low off the West Coast will provide Pacific moisture advection and high clouds developing in the afternoon hours. Thus, between the morning stratus and afternoon cirrus, temperatures may be a bit tricky across the area. As the day continues on, the stationary front will retreat northward with warm southerly flow returning across much of the area. The dryline will be positioned across the western portions of the South Plains and far southwest Texas Panhandle with dewpoints in the upper 50s to mid 60s east of the axis. In conjunction with the moistening boundary layer, instability will increase with SBCAPE values around 1500-2500 J/kg. With weakening CIN through the day, the chances for storm initiation continues to look increasingly better through the evening hours, especially across the southeastern South Plains and southern Rolling Plains. Only a few models keep the capping inversion going with limited to no storm development. Bulk wind shear values are around 50 to 60 knots with a slight increase in winds aloft and the low level jet kicking in. Thus, a severe storm or two cannot be ruled out heading into the evening hours (slightly before sunset and after) with very large hail up to two inches in diameter and damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph possible. Any storm that develops will likely be moving to the southeast, but storm splits may occur with a northward left moving storm possible. Soundings indicate the present of backing low level winds and therefore the threat for a tornado or two cannot be ruled out. The storms chances will come to an end around Midnight for the area with warm moist air remaining in place and the return of low clouds. Low temperatures remain mild in the 60s, with near record breaking warmest minimum temperatures. Previous records were 64 and 67 degrees for Lubbock and Childress respectively. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 332 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 Upper level ridging will quickly exit east of the region Thursday as a shortwave trough across the desert southwest tracks northeastward, becoming negatively oriented, into the Central Plains Thursday evening into Friday morning. The shortwave trough is expected to quickly lift to the north Friday evening, making way for an additional shortwave trough to move into the region from the Four Corners Saturday morning. Thereafter, ridging will begin to build back into the region as we head into early next week. A dry-line is expected to sharpen along the I-27 corridor Thursday afternoon while moist return flow works to pump in efficient gulf moisture, with dewpoints on the order of 50 and greater, into areas off the Caprock. However, one caveat to this afternoon set- up will be the presence of an EML overhead leaving the forecast area capped for much of the afternoon, limiting thunderstorm potential. It is not until the later evening hours on Thursday we will see the potential for convection as stronger forcing ascent arrives as a Pacific front moves in from the west. This in addition to steep mid-level lapse rates, MUCAPE values greater than 2000 J/kg, and 0-6km bulk shear around 50 knots will support an environment conducive for isolated strong to severe thunderstorm development Thursday evening into early Friday morning for areas east of the I-27 corridor. Slightly cooler temperatures and breezy conditions will follow the front late Thursday into Friday with temperatures in the 70s and 80s in addition to westerly winds around 20 to 30 mph. An additional shortwave trough will enter the region Saturday, with models in agreement on another dry-line set-up across our far eastern column of counties. Expect storms to remain confined to the Rolling Plains and far southeastern Texas Panhandle Saturday, given the faster progression of the shortwave trough and the little to no moisture return compared to previous days. Quiet and drier weather returns Sunday as upper level ridging begins to build back into the region. However, guidance continues to hint at another dry-line set- up as we head into the middle of next week. Therefore, have opted to keep NBM mentionable PoPs at this time given this is day 7 and beyond. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1248 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 IFR/MVFR CIGs will persist at KCDS. Skies are currently clearing at KPVW and KLBB. MVFR CIGs should give way to VFR later this afternoon, however will again drop to MVFR (with possible periods of IFR) later this evening and continue as such through Thursday morning. While most of the thunderstorm activity this evening is expected to be south and east of the terminals, they cannot be completely ruled out. However, confidence is still too low to include in any of the TAFs. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 332 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 A dryline is expected to position itself over the I-27 corridor Thursday leaving the forecast area split between dry conditions to the west and moist conditions to the east. Expect minimum RH values as low as 9 to 12 percent across areas west of the I-27 corridor. In addition, a Pacific front is expected to move into the region Thursday afternoon allowing warm west-southwest winds around 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 40 mph across the far southwestern Texas Panhandle and portions of the South Plains. These dry and windy conditions in addition to ERCs in the 50th to 69th percentile will lead to critical fire weather concerns Thursday afternoon and evening. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for TXZ021-022-027-028-033-034-039. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....12 AVIATION...19