####018005822#### FXUS66 KMTR 041213 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 413 AM PST Thu Dec 4 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 327 AM PST Thu Dec 4 2025 - Cold Weather Advisory for southern Monterey and San Benito counties midnight to 8 AM Friday - Benign conditions and with only a few showers over the coastal waters expected through the next seven days - Slight warming trend begins Friday through the weekend && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 327 AM PST Thu Dec 4 2025 (Today and tonight) Longwave pattern over the EPac through Plains is complicated with: two upper lows (one west of Baja and the other east of Hawaii), a large area of high pressure off the CA coast extending into the PacNW, and a shortwave trough sweeping through the 4-corners. Despite the complexity, pretty quiet weather across the Bay Area and Central Coast with minor to moderate impacts. Satellite imagery continues to show widespread mid-high level clouds streaming the northern periphery of the ridge and spilling over the Bay Area. The high clouds initially limited radiational cooling, but gradual thinning over the last few hours had led to a steady drop in temperatures. A Cold Weather Advisory has been issued for the North Bay Valleys, and Interior Central Coast (S Monterey/San Benito) through 8 AM for cold temps 33 to 36 degrees. Even seeing a few 20s across interior San Benito. This is the first Cold Weather Advisory of the season. Areas outside of the advisory are chilly and in the upper 30s and 40s - low 50s coast. Winds were stronger yesterday, but still seeing some gusty winds in the hills of the North Bay with Mt St Helena still shows gusts 35-45 mph. The larger offshore gradient is still on track to relax during the afternoon leading to weakening winds over the North Bay Mts. Despite the chilly start in some locales, today's temps will warm into the 50s and 60s or seasonal averages . One last item in the near term is pesky Tule Fog developing in the Central Valley again. Fog was initially slow to get going (likely due to some of the high clouds), but now it's in full force in the West Delta and interior East Bay Valleys. Clouds and locally dense fog will be the main impacts. For tonight, slight warm up, but still chilly across the interior. Coldest temperature will be over the interior Central Coast and therefore have extended the Cold Weather Advisory through Friday 8 AM for that location with lows in the 33 to 36 degree range. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 400 AM PST Thu Dec 4 2025 (Friday through Wednesday) The ridge to our west shifts east Thursday night into Friday. As such, a gradual warming of the airmass is expected. Still a chilly start to the day Friday, but afternoon temperatures will rebound and be up 3-5 degrees from Thursday. Additional warming is expected over the weekend. One other thing we'll be keeping an eye on heading into the weekend will be precip chances. A few weak systems pass to the north and get buffeted by the ridge overhead. As such, precip chances remain highest north of the region. The exception will be tail ends of decaying cold fronts bringing precip chances to the coastal waters Friday and Saturday. The ridge does flatten, but then remains parked off the SoCal coast through the middle of next week. That means high and dry conditions for the Bay Area and Central Coast. Interior Central Coast may even hit the mid 70s by next Wednesday. Longer range ensemble guidance better precip return by the middle of the month. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 327 AM PST Thu Dec 4 2025 VFR through the TAF period. Light to moderate easterly winds last through the morning before winds turn north to northwest into the afternoon for all but the North Bay and LVK, which stay easterly. Winds reduce again into the evening, becoming light for the night. Vicinity of SFO...VFR through the TAF period. Light and variable winds turn moderate and northeast into the mid morning. Expect winds to turn north-northwest in the mid to late afternoon, then more westerly into the night as winds reduce. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR through the TAF period. Light to moderate southeasterly winds last through much of the morning before becoming northwesterly into the afternoon. Winds weaken and become light and variable into the evening and through the night. && .MARINE... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 327 AM PST Thu Dec 4 2025 Winds and seas are easing. Expect mostly calm conditions into the night before breezy to gusty northwest winds return with rebuilding seas up to 8 feet. Winds stay breezy into the next work week, but seas abate in the early week. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 PM PST Sunday for CAZ006-506-508- 529-530. Cold Weather Advisory until 8 AM PST Friday for CAZ516-518. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Friday to 3 AM PST Saturday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 3 AM PST Saturday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Friday to 3 AM PST Saturday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...MM LONG TERM....MM AVIATION...Murdock MARINE...Murdock Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea ####018007151#### FXUS64 KEPZ 041213 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 513 AM MST Thu Dec 4 2025 ...New AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 430 AM MST Thu Dec 4 2025 - Upper level system is currently bringing snow showers mainly to the Sacramento Mountains, with light sprinkles in a few lowland areas, mainly north of the I-10 corridor in New Mexico. - Snowfall in the Sacramento Mountains by morning will range from a dusting to 2 inches, with the higher amounts above 7500 feet. - Cooler temperatures are expected through the day Thursday, with cold temperatures Thursday and Friday night. - Dry conditions, typical breezes, and a slow warming trend are expected through the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1030 PM MST Wed Dec 3 2025 Water vapor imagery and upper level analysis shows a shortwave trough extending from south-central Colorado into Arizona. You can also see plenty of moisture aloft well south of the border. Just a few days ago, models were trending towards a more amplified trough digging further south and tapping some of that moisture...but it was not meant to be. On the nighttime microphysics imagery, you can see a little northeast push from a backdoor cold front sneaking into the Sacramento Mountains. Though the steadier northeast winds are out over the Eastern Plains, some of that cooler and drier air has pushed into the eastern and northern portions of the Sacramento Mountains. This is making for somewhat disjointed snow levels, with snow levels around 6500 feet east and northeast of the main ridgeline, and closer to 7500-8000 feet along the west slopes. Webcams show it's snowing steadily in Ruidoso and Lake Mescalero, with a dusting on the US-70 road surface at Apache Summit (7600'). A light accumulation is also covering the ground at Lake Mescalero (6950'), and it has just started sticking to the roads at Cloudcroft (8675'). A webcam at Sky Country Estates (8870') looks to have roughly a half inch accumulation on the deck railing. This broken band of light snow will persist for a few more hours, then snow showers will become lighter and more sparse around dawn. Total snow accumulations by morning will be around 1-2 inches above 8000 feet, down to a dusting around 6000 feet. A dusting is also possible along Emory Pass in the Black Range, where precip is much lighter. Otherwise, it's back to benign weather tomorrow, though cooler temperatures will prevail. Highs in the lowlands will be in the middle to upper-50s (about 4-8 degrees below normal), and the lower to middle-30s above 8000 feet (8 to 12 degrees below normal). Lighter winds and clear skies will make for a cold night Thursday night into Friday morning, with another shot at reaching the freezing mark again here on the mesa at Santa Teresa. Much of the Mesilla and Hatch Valleys will dip into the middle-20s, with 10s in the usual cold spots around the Gila. It still looks like KELP, downtown, and the east side of El Paso will stay above freezing by 2-3 degrees, though colder temperatures may creep up into the more urbanized parts of the Lower Valley. Temperatures will rise to near normal for Friday, while overnight lows Friday night will only be a degree or two off the previous night. We'll see an overall warming trend, with highs reaching the middle 60s in the lowlands no later than Saturday. Dry and benign northwest flow looks to continue through the forecast period, with no strong winds or precip on the horizon. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 430 AM MST Thu Dec 4 2025 The upper level storm system that brought some light rain and light mountain snow showers to the area is moving off to the northeast and taking the clouds and precipitation with it. The ceilings have already cleared in KDMN and KTCS and will soon clear in KLRU and then a couple hours later at KELP. We will continue to have unlimited ceilings through this evening and into the overnight hours. Winds today will be light out of the north and then become light and variable tonight, into Friday morning. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 430 AM MST Thu Dec 4 2025 Fire weather concerns will continue to be minimal. Wind into the start of next week, will be light during the afternoon hours. Min RH's today will be above 30% almost everywhere, but we will see a slow drying trend through the weekend, so that by the start of next week we will see min RH's in the mid to upper teens in the lowlands and in the mid 20's in the mountains. Ventilation rates today will be poor to fair, but improve to good on Friday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 35 62 38 65 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 38 58 34 59 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 30 57 30 61 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 29 55 29 59 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 24 36 25 40 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 27 54 29 62 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 25 51 27 54 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 27 61 30 64 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 30 56 27 58 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 33 60 36 63 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 25 62 26 64 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 33 65 33 67 / 0 10 0 0 Loma Linda 30 54 31 56 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 34 62 35 65 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 33 59 34 62 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 36 59 36 62 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 23 57 25 62 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 26 60 27 65 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 31 62 34 65 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 30 56 30 59 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 27 50 29 54 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 25 47 26 51 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 21 45 24 49 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 16 52 21 59 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 29 56 29 63 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 27 55 26 60 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 13 52 18 55 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 26 54 25 56 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 23 57 20 61 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 16 53 18 56 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 26 54 27 58 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 31 59 30 62 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 30 59 30 62 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 28 61 28 64 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 33 54 32 56 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...15-Brice