####018004624#### FZPQ50 PGUM 070721 SRFGUM Surf Zone Forecast for the Mariana Islands National Weather Service Tiyan GU 521 PM ChST Sun Dec 7 2025 .DISCUSSION...Hazardous surf of 9 feet and a high risk of rip currents along north facing reefs of the Marianas are expected to persist through late tonight as the pulse in northerly swell continues to diminish. Meanwhile, the high rip current risk is expected to persist along east facing reefs for much of next week. $$ GUZ001-MPZ001>003-072000- Guam-Rota-Tinian-Saipan- 521 PM ChST Sun Dec 7 2025 ...HIGH SURF ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM CHST MONDAY ALONG NORTH FACING REEFS... ...HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS NOW UNTIL 4 AM CHST MONDAY ALONG NORTH FACING REEFS... 36 hour Surf Zone Forecast for the Marianas from 600 PM Sunday through 600 AM Tuesday .TONIGHT... Rip Current Risk.....High *. Surf Height North facing reefs............7 to 9 feet. East facing reefs............6 to 8 feet. South facing reefs............1 to 3 feet. West facing reefs............3 to 4 feet. Swell/Period Primary swell................East at 3 to 5 feet. Primary period...............10 seconds. Secondary swell..............North at around 4 feet. Secondary period.............9 seconds. Tertiary swell...............Northeast at around 3 feet. Tertiary period..............12 seconds. Water Temperature Ritidian buoy..........85 Degrees. Winds...............Northeast at 10 to 15 mph. .MONDAY... Rip Current Risk.....Moderate *. Surf Height North facing reefs............6 to 8 feet. East facing reefs............5 to 8 feet. South facing reefs............1 to 2 feet. West facing reefs............2 to 4 feet. Swell/Period Primary swell................East at 3 to 5 feet. Primary period...............9 seconds. Secondary swell..............North at around 3 feet. Secondary period.............9 seconds. Max Heat Index.........Around 99. Winds...............East at 10 to 15 mph. .MONDAY NIGHT... Rip Current Risk.....Moderate *. Surf Height North facing reefs............6 to 8 feet. East facing reefs............5 to 8 feet. South facing reefs............1 to 2 feet. West facing reefs............2 to 4 feet. Swell/Period Primary swell................East at 3 to 5 feet. Primary period...............9 seconds. Secondary swell..............North at around 3 feet. Secondary period.............9 seconds. Winds...............East at 10 to 15 mph. Tide information for the next 36 hours... At Apra Harbor, Guam... High tide 2.3 feet at 8:08 PM Sunday Low tide -1.1 feet at 3:47 AM Monday High tide 2.2 feet at 11:21 AM Monday Low tide 1.5 feet at 4:30 PM Monday High tide 2.2 feet at 8:58 PM Monday Low tide -0.8 feet at 4:38 AM Tuesday High tide 2.2 feet at 12:16 PM Tuesday At Rota Island... High tide 2.2 feet at 8:05 PM Sunday Low tide -1.0 feet at 3:41 AM Monday High tide 2.1 feet at 11:18 AM Monday Low tide 1.4 feet at 4:24 PM Monday High tide 2.1 feet at 8:55 PM Monday Low tide -0.8 feet at 4:32 AM Tuesday High tide 2.0 feet at 12:13 PM Tuesday At Tinian Island... High tide 1.7 feet at 8:06 PM Sunday Low tide -0.3 feet at 3:24 AM Monday High tide 1.7 feet at 11:19 AM Monday Low tide 0.5 feet at 4:07 PM Monday High tide 1.6 feet at 8:56 PM Monday Low tide -0.3 feet at 4:15 AM Tuesday High tide 1.6 feet at 12:14 PM Tuesday At Tanapag Harbor, Saipan... High tide 2.3 feet at 8:01 PM Sunday Low tide -0.8 feet at 3:50 AM Monday High tide 2.4 feet at 11:44 AM Monday Low tide 1.7 feet at 4:49 PM Monday High tide 2.1 feet at 8:53 PM Monday Low tide -0.5 feet at 4:42 AM Tuesday High tide 2.4 feet at 12:34 PM Tuesday * Low Risk of rip currents - Strong currents can still occur near jetties and reef channels. Always have a flotation device with you in the water. Moderate Risk of rip currents - Wave conditions support stronger or more frequent rip currents. Always have a flotation device with you in the water. High Risk of rip currents - Large waves will produce strong rip currents, especially along narrow reefs and beaches. Rip currents will be life threatening. If caught in a rip current, swim parallel to the beach rather than against the current. $$ ####018007234#### FXUS61 KPBZ 070721 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 221 AM EST Sun Dec 7 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Light snow accumulation expected on Sunday primarily north and east of Pittsburgh. Continued rounds of rain and snow chances will prevail through next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... KEY MESSAGES: - Another disturbance brings minor snowfall accumulations to areas north of Pittsburgh and in the ridges; a rain/snow mix with little accumulations expected elsewhere - Building high pressure Sunday night promotes efficient cooling and low temps drop back into the teens --------------------------------------------------------------- The previously saturated 925-850 mb level has dried some here early this evening and any localized areas of freezing have wound down. The Forecast period begins with the first of several shortwaves rounding through the flow and advancing across the Ohio Valley. This shortwave brings another push of mostly snow across the region, largely north of I-70 and in the ridges. Precipitation likely begins as all snow across the region before there could be a little changeover to a rain snow mix across the lowlands south of I-80. Models have backed off on the snowfall out of this system and although flakes could be flying, an accumulating snow is less likely outside of the PA/WV ridges and south of I-80. HREF probabilities for at least an inch are largely below 20% in and along I-80 but climb into the 60-80% range for the ridges of Westmoreland and Fayette counties. Probabilities closer to Pittsburgh are very low for any accumulation and even the probability of a measurable snowfall event is around 10-20% at most. A cold front sweeps the region later in the day Sunday, bringing a reinforcing shot of cold air. This combined with possible overnight clearing and slackening of winds as high pressure slides in could allow for another good radiative cooling night. Low temperatures by sunrise on Monday look like they could be in the low teens north and east of Pittsburgh, with high teens and closer to 20 for much the rest of the area. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... KEY MESSAGES: - Dry and cold Monday under high pressure - Another light snow north of Pittsburgh Tuesday ---------------------------------------------------------------- A brief stay over of high pressure Monday promotes light winds and high temperatures largely below freezing. Clouds slowly increase through the day ahead of our next system. Our 2nd shortwave builds through the flow and advances through the Great Lakes by Monday night. At the SFC a weak low is forecast to move through the far northern Great Lakes during the day on Tuesday. As such our POPs increase mainly north of Pittsburgh during the daylight hours of Tuesday. Thermal profiles look to support a melting snowfall as modest WAA supports daytime highs in the mid 30s across much of the region. Accumulations on roadways look unlikely from this system. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... KEY MESSAGES: - Below normal temperatures continue through the long term. - Additional rounds of potential winter weather with a series of passing disturbances mid and late week. ------------------------------------------------------------------- By the middle to later portions of next week, a broad trough is progged to move across the Great Lakes and Northeast, continuing the active pattern. After a couple of dry hours Tuesday evening, another, deeper system chases quickly on the heels of the Tuesday daytime clipper. Continued WAA across the region leaves overnight lows near that freezing mark but supports daytime highs climbing into the low 40s on Wednesday. As such the next system looks to be more of a rain/snow mix, with snow most likely across the ridges and north of I-80 and rain favored elsewhere. Accumulations of snow, most likely in the PA/WV ridges and north of I-80, would wind down through the day as temperatures climb and many areas turn over to rain. The cold front sweeps the region late Wednesday turning remaining precipitation back to snow. QPF estimates from this system remain largely between 0.25-0.50 inches. POPs lower slightly across the lowlands on Thursday favoring a brief stint of lake enhancement and upslope flow on the heels of the Wednesday system. Once again, timing uncertainties in the departure of the midweek system and the arrival of the late week system are spreading POPs widely across Thursday, but some stay of dry weather is expected during this time frame. Yet another clipper looks to sweep the Upper Midwest and Ohio Valley during the Thursday night/Friday time frame. The exact track of this system will determine what kind and how much precipitation we can squeeze out. At this time, ensembles are rather spread on their depictions of this track, but a more southern track would give us a better chance of seeing impactful winter weather. A more northern track would favor a rain/snow mix with the best snow in the ridges and north of I-80, similar to Wednesday. Temperatures in the extended period look to fluctuate some but with the trough advancing into the region, generally trend down as we head towards the weekend. Differing depictions of the depth of the trough as it moves overhead lead to a wide spread in temperatures for next weekend but ensembles that favor a deeper trough feature another shot of very cold air. && .AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Prevailing MVFR ceilings are ongoing and expected to continue throughout much of the TAF period. Some reductions to high-end IFR will be possible this afternoon, primarily near and north of PIT where there is also a chance for a few passing light snow showers. Confidence in any snow (and associated restrictions) drops the farther south you go. With probabilities of any precipitation only ~20% at ZZV, HLG, and MGW, no precipitation was noted at those locations for now. Elsewhere, a mix of PROB30s (lower confidence) and TEMPOs (higher confidence) have been maintained to reflect estimated onset and end times. Shower activity tapers overnight as a weak cold front moves through and light west winds shift to more northwesterly or northerly. MVFR ceilings will continue to prevail following the frontal passage. Outlook... The overall weather pattern through the week strongly favors shortwave movement within upper troughing that brings precipitation and restriction potential to the area generally every other day. Precipitation chances remain largely in the form of snow, save for short periods of rain at southern terminals during daytime hours. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AK NEAR TERM...AK SHORT TERM...AK LONG TERM...AK AVIATION...Cermak/Milcarek ####018010665#### FXUS61 KAKQ 070724 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 224 AM EST Sun Dec 7 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure becomes centered across the region tonight, with areas of fog and freezing fog possible. Primarily dry conditions are expected Sunday, but a weak low pressure system brings a chance for rain and snow Monday. Mainly dry for Tuesday through Thursday, with shower chances increasing with the next cold front late in the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 800 PM EST Saturday... Key Messages: - Freezing fog is expected inland tonight, dry and a bit warmer Sunday. A Freezing Fog Advisory has been issued for our western tier of counties as of 8 PM EST. Temperatures will continue to drop this evening, falling back into the 20s tonight. This combined with widespread visibilities of 1/4 SM (or less) will lead to the potential for slippery conditions tonight into Sunday morning, especially on bridges, elevated surfaces, or untreated roadways. Expect the fog to continue to spread east over the next few hours and an expansion of the advisory to the east is likely. Previous Discussion: The latest WX analysis shows a rather weak pressure gradient over the local area, with widespread low clouds hanging on east of the Blue Ridge. Temperatures have remained quite cold in the the piedmont, in the low-mid 30s which is about 10 degrees below NBM forecasted readings as of 3 PM. Somewhat warmer air is in place across SE VA/NE NC (temperatures in the 40s). Challenging forecast tonight with respect to fog/freezing fog as the models continue to strongly suggest that it becomes widespread along and W of I-95 after midnight, while the latest conditions have been much slower to allow for any clearing over the CWA (which leads to lower confidence). For now, will still show some clearing this evening, with light winds conducive to radiational cooling later tonight. NAM and GFS BUFKIT soundings continue to depict boundary level saturation with the potential for more widespread and dense fog/freezing fog. Lows tonight fall into the 20s for most of the area with low 30s near the bay/coast. After morning fog/freezing fog, Sunday would eventually see partial sunshine. especially south, along with milder temperatures rising into the low-mid 40s north, with lower 50s SE. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 310 PM EST Saturday... Key Messages: - Weak low pressure off the SE coast will bring a chance for rain/snow changing to snow Monday. - Dry and cold Tuesday. High pressure will be offshore Sunday night, allowing low level flow to become southerly ahead of an approaching cold front. Meanwhile, weak low pressure lifts ENE off the coast of northern Florida, gradually strengthening off the SE coast on Monday. All of the models have trended farther north with the precip chances Monday, with a similar temperature profile to previous runs. As a short wave aloft traverses the region on Monday, expect at least a chc for precip for most of the CWA (generally highest PoPs across the south). Deep layer moisture is still somewhat limited behind the surface cold front, but the trends are wetter so would not rule out the potential for QPF amounts to ~0.25" and think the NBM is behind on the trends. With ~1030 mb sfc high pressure sliding east from the Great Lakes into NY/PA during the day Monday, there will be a good feed of cold air into the mid-Atlantic, with very cold air aloft. Latest 12Z/06 GEFS/GEPS/ENS have trended significantly upward and now show 20-60% chances for at least 1" snowfall across central and south central VA (assuming a 10:1 SLR) which may actually end up being more like 15:1 later in the day. Will mention the winter WX potential Monday in the HWO for now and continue to monitor model trends over the next few cycles as this will bear watching. High temps Monday top out in the mid 30s NW to the low 40s SE (but if moisture lingers Mon evening even SE zones have some snow potential). Very cold air moves into the region Monday night with lows in the mid to upper teens inland, mainly low to mid 20s near the coast. High pressure over the region on Tuesday will become centered south of the area late in the day. Mostly sunny, but cold Tuesday with highs in the mid/upper 30s NW to the mid 40s SE. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 320 PM EST Saturday... - Milder Wednesday and Thursday. - Another front crosses the region late in the week with colder temps and precip potential. Medium range models and ensembles are in decent agreement that midweek should be milder as a deep upper trough amplifies across central Canada, with low pressure tracking through the Great Lakes. This allows for an increasing SW low level flow Wed, with highs into the 50s for most. Remaining relatively mild Wed night and Thursday, with increasing rain chances Thursday night/Friday as the next system impacts the region. Precip potentially changes over to a rain/snow mix before ending Friday night. Saturday looks dry and cold as high pressure builds in from the NW. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 125 AM EST Sunday... Widespread LIFR/VLIFR conditions in place over much of the region early this morning. Freezing Fog Advisory includes the RIC, SBY, and PHF terminals until 14z. 1/4SM VSBY (or lower in a few spots). Satellite shows LIFR conditions spreading SE and will likely impact ORF over the next hour or so. Temperatures across the SE terminals are still above freezing so not expecting widespread FZFG at ORF. ECG may escape the fog but CIGs fall to IFR prior to sunrise. Light and variable winds overnight continue through the end of the period. Outlook: Primarily VFR conditions return by Sunday night. Another system Monday morning may bring degraded flight conditions, especially to the S terminals, behind a strong cold front. && .MARINE... As of 220 AM EST Sunday... - Marine Dense Fog Advisory in effect this morning. Otherwise, benign marine conditions through this evening. - Another round of SCAs expected early Monday through Tuesday morning, as a strong cold front moves across the local waters. A period of gale force gusts are possible on Monday, with the best chance over the coastal zones and into the Mouth of the Chesapeake Bay. - Another system may bring degraded marine conditions to the area Wednesday through the end of the week. Weak high pressure continues to build over the local waters from the west this morning. Obs and buoy reports as of this writing reveal W-NW winds ~5 kt in the rivers and bay, 5-10 kt just offshore. Waves of around 1 ft in the bay, rivers and sound, with seas 2-3 ft north, 3-4 ft south. Currently noting areas of fog over the waters, and a Marine Dense Fog Advy is in effect through mid-morning for the bay and eastern VA rivers. Light and variable winds continue this morning, with light winds veering around to the W-SW this afternoon and this evening. Waves remain around 1 ft and seas subsiding to 2-3 ft along the coastal zones. Marine conditions are still expected to rapidly deteriorate early Monday morning. Strong high pressure will push a strong cold front through the area late tonight into early Monday morning. Winds will increase sharply in the wake of the front, as an area of low pressure skirts northeast off the Carolina coast. The past few successive runs of the CAMs have been stronger and closer to the coast with the low, with the resultant tighter pressure gradient resulting in an increased chance of Gale Force gusts in post-frontal CAA. It does look increasingly likely that a 6-10 hour period of gale- force gusts accompanies the initial push of this drier, colder air pushing into the region, along with some rain and snow showers. Still lower confidence with regard to the exact duration of Gale Force gusts, but there is enough confidence for the central and southern coastal zones south of Wachapreague, as well as the Currituck Sound and the Mouth of the Ches Bay, to add a Gale Watch for Monday. Have run the headline from mid- morning Monday through midnight Monday/early Tuesday. For the remaining zones, while a brief period of Gale force gusts is possible, they appear brief enough to handle with SMWs as needed, and thus a Small Craft Advisory has been issued for the duration of the event from late tonight through Tuesday morning. It is possible that later shifts may have to extend out a bit farther out, as weak CAA lingers into the day on Tuesday as high pressure builds across the area, and also as seas linger AOA 5 ft. Winds diminish Tuesday into Tuesday night, but ramp back up again early Wed as a warm front lifts across the region. Another strong cold frontal passage brings another period of strong SCA to low-end Gales by Friday into next weekend. As winds increase on Monday, waves will rapidly build to 3-5 ft in the Bay (highest at the mouth of the Bay) and seas will build to 6-9 ft over the coastal waters. Despite an expected gradual downtrend in winds Tuesday, seas will be slower to subside, and will likely remain near or just briefly drop below SCA criteria before building again with the second wind surge forecast for Wednesday. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...Freezing Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for MDZ021>025. NC...Freezing Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for NCZ012>014. VA...Freezing Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for VAZ048- 060>062-064>069-075>090-092-093-096-097-099-509>524. Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for VAZ095-098- 100-525. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for ANZ630>632- 634>638. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Monday to 6 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ630>632-650-652. Gale Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for ANZ633-634-654-656-658. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Monday to midnight EST Monday night for ANZ635>638. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...AJB/LKB SHORT TERM...LKB LONG TERM...LKB/RHR AVIATION...RHR MARINE...MAM/NB