####018003912#### FXUS63 KDMX 081722 AFDDMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Des Moines IA 1122 AM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 ...Updated for the 18z Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Warming trend to start the week, reaching the upper 30s to low 40s by Tuesday. - Strong cold front on Tuesday night will bring gusty winds 35-45+ mph overnight into Wednesday morning. Wintry mix is also possible with frontal passage. - Active pattern continues through the rest of the week with additional snow chances and colder air returning. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 239 AM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 A weak PV anomaly, noted in GOES-East water vapor imagery, has resulted in patchy light snow across mainly northern into central Iowa overnight. Radar depiction is more robust than and snow that is reaching the ground in actuality with dry air in place. As this continues east through the early morning hours expect coverage to continue to decrease. Expectation for a dusting of snow at most for locations across northern Iowa. There is a signal in model soundings that ice introduction will be lost as the column de- saturates through the morning which could result in a brief period of light freezing drizzle. This has not materialized yet this morning and expect that with dry air in place any further de-saturation would result in precipitation stopping altogether rather than precipitation type swapping from snow to freezing drizzle. Even so with low likelihood, will keep an eye on conditions through the morning hours as freezing drizzle can be hazardous, especially for the morning commute. A shortwave will pass north of the area later today and into Tuesday, and while moisture will stay north of the area, warm air advection into the area will send temperatures through the upper 30s to low 40s on Tuesday. Despite the strong warm air advection into the area on Tuesday, the snow pack is likely to impact temperatures on Tuesday, especially across northern to central Iowa where the pack is deepest. Dewpoints are in the low to mid 30s in northern to central Iowa which may create a ceiling for the warming potential. A second, robust shortwave will pass across the area later Tuesday into Wednesday. This one will bring chances for rain, transitioning to a wintry mix, to northern and eastern Iowa. More notably, there will be strong cold air advection and subsidence behind the system overnight into Wednesday morning. This will result in windy conditions. Model soundings show 40-55+ kts through the mixed layer and expect we will need at least an advisory for these winds. Winds were nudged up on this shift, but expect further increases will be needed. Lastly, soundings continue to show some instability with the gusty winds overnight into Wednesday morning, which could result in more convective driven snow showers (HCRs/snow squall potential). Temperatures are colder Wednesday into the end of the week behind the system. The pattern remains active with additional snow chances Thursday and reinforcing cold into the weekend. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1122 AM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 For northern Iowa (FOD, MCW, ALO), widespread stratus clouds with MVFR and spotty high end IFR ceilings are prevailing at midday and should through much of the period. In addition, an area of fog is forecast to move eastward this afternoon into tonight with IFR visibility restrictions likely and cannot rule out a short period of LIFR. Farther south at DSM, VFR conditions are forecast to return late this afternoon with mainly VFR prevailing at OTM. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hagenhoff AVIATION...Ansorge ####018005748#### FXUS62 KFFC 081722 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 1222 PM EST Mon Dec 8 2025 ...New 18Z Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1216 PM EST Mon Dec 8 2025 - Light rain showers will occur this morning, with accumulations in the 0.01 to 0.15 inch range expected. - Seasonable temperatures and dry weather should prevail between Tuesday and Friday. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 239 AM EST Mon Dec 8 2025 Considerations for Today: A shortwave cruising through the region will bring a quick round of light precipitation to Georgia this morning. For most areas, including the Atlanta Metro, the bulk of the rain should fall prior to sunrise. This may limit any impacts to the Monday morning commute. Yesterday's evening sounding only had a PW value of 0.71 inches, and the trends in the SPC mesoscale analysis show only minute moisture increases (to 0.8 to 1.00 inches) as the rain moves in. When combined with the limited duration of the rainfall (2 to 5 hours) this lack of moisture will favor very light rainfall totals. Our going forecast suggest amounts in the 0.01 to 0.15 inch range. As the rain comes to an end a cold front will push rapidly through Georgia. Northwest winds will develop behind the front, leading to drier weather. Occasional winds gusts in the 18 to 24 mph range are possible this afternoon. A push of drier air above 850 mb may help produce some sun in western and central Georgia this afternoon. Meanwhile across eastern and northern portions of the state more prevalent moisture in the surface to 850 mb layer should favor mostly cloudy skies today. High temperatures today should range from the upper 40s in the mountains to the mid 50 in central Georgia (3 to 8 degrees below average). Tonight & Tuesday: CAM guidance wants to push a weak wedge front into eastern Georgia tonight. Weak lift and convergence along this boundary, and lingering low level moisture could allow some patchy fog to form tonight. A Dense Fog Advisory appears unlikely (< 10% chance). Aside from this the weather should be benign through Tuesday. Lows in the upper 20s and lower 30s will occur Tuesday morning, with temperatures rising to around 50 degrees in the afternoon. No rainfall is anticipated. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 239 AM EST Mon Dec 8 2025 Forecast: We pick up the long term forecast on Tuesday night into Wednesday morning with a potent shortwave embedded in the polar side of the upper level jet digging into midwest and Great Lakes. Initial front will be driven towards the area by this system that looks to be mostly dry. Front looks to stall somewhere within the CWA Wednesday into Wednesday night. We'll have a relatively warm day on Wednesday with highs in the upper 50s and 60s, cooling into the 30s overnight. Going forward, very broad trough builds in over the eastern CONUS. Weak impulse within this may bring a chance at some showers, but provided the ensembles are not underdispersed, we've seen a significant shift through the day towards a more dry solution for the area Thursday night into Friday. This system looks like it will struggle to have any connection to moisture that has been pushed south thanks to a weak surface low that quickly falls apart. Going into the weekend, some building uncertainty around just how cold temps might get. Model solutions for the afternoon and evening have trended towards a solution that doesn't dig yet another strong impulse within the large trough quite as far south. Temps get cold (20s overnight), but we may be able to avoid the teens overnight with a solution like that. Eventually the strong surface high responsible for the cold air is able to build into the area, but it stays a bit further north keeping the core of the colder air away from us. Want to emphasize there is still quite the spread on this - NBM temperature spread throughout the entire weekend for the 10th vs 90th percentile is 10-20 degrees for the entire state of Georgia into Monday. Either way, cold air is going to make its way in, it's just a matter of just how cold that air will be when it arrives. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1216 PM EST Mon Dec 8 2025 Cigs continue to climb into MVFR and will continue to slowly improve through the afternoon. MVFR to VFR through late before cigs fall again Tues morning. Patchy areas with cigs of 005 to 010 are possible through 15z tmrw. Winds today NW sustained 10 to 15 kts with gusts up to 23kts, taper off overnight to light and variable before turning to SW at 4 to 9kts late tmrw morning. //ATL Confidence...18Z Update... Medium-high confidence cigs Tues morning. High confidence all other elements. SM && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 52 32 48 32 / 20 0 0 0 Atlanta 51 32 51 36 / 0 0 0 0 Blairsville 44 25 47 29 / 10 0 0 0 Cartersville 51 27 52 33 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 56 32 54 32 / 0 0 0 0 Gainesville 51 33 49 34 / 0 0 0 0 Macon 55 34 51 31 / 10 0 0 0 Rome 53 30 55 35 / 0 0 0 0 Peachtree City 52 29 52 32 / 0 0 0 0 Vidalia 57 35 51 32 / 10 0 0 0 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Albright LONG TERM....Lusk AVIATION...SM ####018002024#### FXUS65 KFGZ 081722 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 1022 AM MST Mon Dec 8 2025 .SYNOPSIS...Dry conditions with warming temperatures will continue through the coming week. && .DISCUSSION...The forecast remains unchanged, we are in a quiescent period of weather through at least early next week. A consistent strong ridge over the eastern Pacific Ocean is keeping northern AZ under a dry northwest flow. Expect generally light winds and a gradual warming trend through the week. Skies will be mostly clear save a few passing high clouds as occasional weak disturbances brush to the northeast. Daytime highs will approach 10-15 degrees and even locally 20 degrees above normal by Wednesday-Thursday. The only other thing of note will be efficient radiational cooling leading to breezy nighttime terrain winds, particularly along/south of the Mogollon Rim. && .AVIATION...Monday 08/18Z through Tuesday 09/18Z...VFR conditions, no precipitation expected. Winds E-NE 5-10kts daytime. Light and variable winds most places overnight with some downslope winds at KSEZ NE 10-15kts, gusts 20-25kts. OUTLOOK...Tuesday 09/18Z through Thursday 11/18Z...VFR conditions, no precipitation expected. Winds generally light and variable at 10kts or less. && .FIRE WEATHER...Today and Tuesday...Dry conditions with warming temperatures continue. Light and variable daytime winds around 5 to 15 mph each day. Minimum RH values between 20-40% today, then 15-35% on Tuesday. Wednesday through Friday...Dry and warm conditions will continue through the end of the week. Light and variable daytime winds around 5 to 15 mph each day. Minimum RH values between 20-40% each afternoon. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Lewandowski AVIATION...Bernhart FIRE WEATHER...Meola For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff ####018007009#### FXUS63 KMQT 081722 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 1222 PM EST Mon Dec 8 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for Southern Schoolcraft and Luce counties where lake effect snow transitioning to system snow will bring 3-8" tonight through Tuesday morning. Highest amounts are expected closer to the Chippewa/Mackinac county borders. - Two rounds of widespread light snow are expected early this week, the first late tonight through early Tuesday, and the second late Tuesday through Wednesday morning. - Cooler than normal temperatures continue through this week and beyond. Low temperatures in the single digits to near zero are possible late this week into this upcoming weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 342 AM EST Mon Dec 8 2025 Early morning GOES satellite imagery shows areas of clearing across the UP as ridging aloft and surface high pressure atop WI has kicked LES to the WNW snow belts. Light LES in the far eastern UP counties, mainly N Luce and Chippewa, may accumulate another inch at best before backing SW winds fully pushing bands offshore through the morning hours. Efficient radiational cooling has taken place across the central and western UP where observations at the time of writing this discussion have fallen well below zero, some, including our office here in Negaunee Township, reaching as low as -10 to -15F. Our low of -14F breaks the daily record low of -13F for December 8th. Elsewhere, single digit to teens temps are found under cloud cover or closer to the lakeshores, where the "warm" ~40F waters are keeping milder conditions. Mostly quiet weather remains in place through this afternoon as SW flow ahead of an approaching clipper helps bring daytime temps into the upper teens and low 20s. Increased SW fetch across northern Lake Michigan will then support a developing lake effect snow band into the eastern UP this evening. CAM guidance continue to highlight modest convergence into southeastern Schoolcraft and Luce counties with the QPF bullseye moreso planted along the county borders with Chip/Mack. Underneath this band, hazardous travel conditions may be seen as 00z HREF probability suggests 60-80% chance for snowfall rates >0.5/hr and winds gusts 25-30 mph. As the clipper shortwave draws nearer to the UP, widespread system snow will then begin to spread west to east late tonight into early Tuesday, grazing the UP with a widespread 1-3". Given the quick hitting nature of the clipper, confidence in heavy snow >3" is rather low (<30% chance), however, if sneaky fgen banding combined with moderate to high SLRs 15-20:1 can linger in the west and central UP, locally higher amounts >3" may be realized. In the east, SW flow and lake enhancement from Lake Michigan will make reaching amounts >3" a bit easier. Have opted to hoist a Winter Weather Advisory for S Schoolcraft and Luce counties from this evening through Tuesday morning for amounts between 3-8" as lake effect transitions to system/lake enhanced snow. The highest amounts will likely seen closer to the Chip/Mack borders by Tuesday morning. A quick reprieve in snow is expected Tuesday morning/afternoon aside from some light lake effect snow showers across the NW wind snowbelt. The next clipper shortwave quickly follows late Tuesday through Wednesday morning, this one associated with a sharper upper level wave and a deeper surface low pressure reflection. Model consensus, while not completely in line yet, has come into better agreement on the track of this clipper, sliding it through central WI down into lesser MI. With this track, the heaviest snowfall axis is displaced south of the UP, providing another round of 1-3" for us. Ensemble probabilities for amounts >3" by Sunday morning continue to highlight 30-50% along the WI/UP border. While snowfall amounts look to remain on the lower end across the northern tier of the UP, a sharp increase in northerly winds 30-40 mph and lake effect/enhanced snow may make for some travel hazards. Light lake effect for the N to NW wind snowbelts is likely to continue through the latter half of this week and coming weekend. Operational models and their ensemble counterparts hint at a stronger clipper coming through the Great Lakes next weekend, but diverge on its overall progression, timing, and strength. The colder than normal pattern remains in place through seemingly the rest of the month! && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1222 PM EST Mon Dec 8 2025 A clipper system will move through Upper Michigan tonight, bringing with it lowering ceilings, gusty winds near 20kts, and snow. Ahead of the system, increasing clouds this evening will gradually lower bases, resulting in the development of MVFR prior to snowfall. Once the snow sets in, expecting mostly IFR conditions at all sites from the lowering ceilings, but also from higher snowfall rates. This is expected to begin mainly after midnight. By morning, the synoptic snow should end, followed by lake effect snow and MVFR conditions. Expecting the showers to end through the morning at KIWD and KSAW, with these terminals trending toward VFR. && .MARINE... Issued at 342 AM EST Mon Dec 8 2025 W to NW winds 15-25 kts back to the SW today ahead of an approaching clipper. SW winds will increase to 25-30 kts with occasional gales to 35 kts possible. Guidance continues to be on the fence on widespread gale potential for eastern Lake Superior tonight through Tuesday morning with various ensemble probability ranging from only 20% to 80%. Model soundings only support mixing down occasional gales, thus we are opting to cancel the ongoing Gale Watch. Should gales be realized a short fused headline may be needed. Winds fall below 25 kts as the system pulls away late Tuesday. Lighter winds don't last long as a second stronger clipper is set to move across Wisconsin through Wednesday, quickly increasing NE to N winds between 25-30 kts early Wednesday morning. Here, the chance for gales to 35 kts sits at around 50%. Heavy to moderate freezing spray is possible as wave heights grow 5-10 feet. Behind this departing system Wednesday afternoon, N to NW winds fall to 25 kts or less and remain that way through the mid to late week. Guidance is hinting at the return of stronger winds next weekend and will continue to be monitored. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Tuesday for MIZ007-014. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BW AVIATION...JTP MARINE...BW ####018009370#### FXUS63 KLOT 081723 AFDLOT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 1123 AM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Very low chance (<20%) for freezing drizzle north of I-88 late tonight into early Tuesday morning. - A period of blustery winds and rain followed by snow showers is likely Tuesday night into Wednesday. - After a brief warm-up Tuesday through early Wednesday, temperatures will turn sharply colder during the latter half of the week and into the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 353 AM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 Through Tuesday: While lingering lake effect clouds have slowed cooling over portions of the metro and areas north of I-88, it will be a chilly start to the work week with temperatures early this morning in the single digits outside of the Chicago metro, teens in the suburbs, and upper teens to mid 20s in Chicago (warmest along the lake front). A weak mid-level disturbance currently moving through Iowa will continue its eastward progress into Illinois this morning. While this feature has been producing some (mainly light) snow over central Iowa it will be encountering increasingly dry low to mid-level air amidst an expansive surface high. Nevertheless, the lighter echoes out ahead of the main band could still lead to isolated seeder-feeder generated flurries near and west of I-39 early this morning (~20% chance). Admittedly guidance has not been handling this feature all that well and it has remained rather persistent. While the dry conditions are still expected today, a slower erosion of the lower-level clouds here locally could perhaps support an additional brief bout of flurries in the afternoon. As the center of the surface high shifts to the east through the day winds will return to a southerly direction. The warm advective influence will still be less pronounced initially, with the residual snow pack and mostly cloudy skies holding high temperatures in the low to mid 20s. The next clipper system will approach the region tonight and move across Wisconsin into early Tuesday morning. This will help further increase the low level warm and moist advection out ahead of it here locally. Any precipitation associated with this system looks to remain mainly north of the local area, though some light wintry precipitation/flurries could graze far northern/northeast Illinois overnight into early Tuesday morning. The main concern during this time is whether freezing drizzle could develop instead of flurries. However, there remains notable variability among guidance as to whether we saturate sufficiently this far south for precipitation to occur. This will be monitored closely for possible addition to the official forecast if confidence increases as temperatures will still be below freezing during this timeframe and breezy winds would be supportive of more efficient ice accretion. Stay tuned. Temperatures then warm above freezing by late morning/early afternoon with the possibility for lingering low clouds and patchy fog/mist making for a dreary day overall. Precipitation with yet another (likely stronger) system looks to mainly hold off until after sunset Tuesday. More details on that are included in the discussion below. Petr Tuesday night through Sunday: The stubborn northwest flow pattern will persist over the western 2/3rds of the CONUS through this week and into the upcoming weekend. The energetic jet stream in place over the country will thus continue to send a barrage of clipper-type systems into the Midwest over the next several days, resulting in regular opportunities for (mostly wintry) precipitation and mostly below normal temperatures during this time frame. What will likely be the strongest of this series of systems will pass through the region Tuesday night into Wednesday. Ensemble guidance is in relatively good agreement on a sub-990 mb surface low swinging across central or southern Wisconsin, though a minority of individual ensemble members have this surface low taking a track that brings it just south of the Illinois-Wisconsin state line. Robust warm air advection ahead of this deepening system will have pushed temperatures above the freezing mark during the daytime on Tuesday, and southwesterly surface winds strengthening further after sunset will keep temperatures propped up in the mid 30s to possibly even the low 40s through the night as the system's precipitation spreads into the area. Thus, while snowflakes could still be seen in some of our northern locales, the majority of precipitation that we'll see Tuesday night should come in the form of a cold rain. Just how strong winds will get Tuesday night is still something that will need to be ironed out over the next couple of forecast cycles. Some guidance favors gusts exceeding 40 mph during this time frame when low-level pressure gradients will be most compressed, while other guidance is much more reserved, believing that precipitation and the deep snowpack in place over much of the area will stunt mixing into the stronger flow aloft. The precise strength and track of the surface low will also play a role in the magnitude of the winds that we'll see Tuesday night. For now, the NBM-delivered peak 25-30 kt gusts appear to be a good compromise between everything, but modifications to these gusts may need to be made as the event draws closer. As the low pressure system makes it east of our longitude, cooler temperatures will work their way into the area on Wednesday behind a cold front. Precipitation on the backside of the low will thus be expected to change over to snow, though just how widespread the snow will be is another point of uncertainty with our forecast that is tied to the precise strength and track of the surface low, among other things. Regardless, any locations where gusty snow showers materialize will see sharply reduced visibilities and will have a chance to pick up a coating of snow if diminishing column moisture doesn't end up being too big of a negating factor. Between Thursday and Sunday, 2-3 additional upper-level disturbances will ride the northwesterly flow train into the region. Each disturbance will come with a chance of producing additional snow accumulations here or somewhere nearby. However, there still isn't much consistency in ensemble guidance in the exact tracks, timing, and strength of each of these disturbances, which leads to continued low confidence in the finer-scale details of our precipitation forecast for the end of this week and this upcoming weekend. Confidence is much higher that temperatures will turn sharply colder for the latter half of the week and into the weekend. The ensemble signal for single digit lows remains quite strong for this late week/weekend time frame, and there is a good amount of support for a sizable chunk of our forecast area seeing sub-zero low temperatures too. A period of blustery northwesterly winds behind an arctic cold front appears probable as well, which may allow wind chills to make a run at -20F at some point this coming weekend. Ogorek && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1123 AM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 Key Messages: - Lower MVFR to IFR CIGS likely to develop overnight and persist on Tuesday. - A 30% chance of light snow showers for a couple hour period overnight, followed by a possible period of -FZDZ (5-15% chance) into early Tuesday morning. Prevailing VFR conditions are anticipated through the day light hours today. Winds will generally be light from the south- southeast. Tonight, a weather system passing well north of the area will lead to a wind shift to the southwest late tonight and through the day on Tuesday. A period of gustiness up around 20 kt may also accompany this wind shift. The bulk of the precipitation associated with this system is expected to largely remain north of the area. However, there is about a 2 to 4 hour window tonight in which some light snow showers and flurries could occur over the terminals. Since the chance for this is around 30%, we opted to include a few hour PROB30 mention tonight in the latest set of TAFs. The possibility also exists for the snow showers to transition to a short period of -FZDZ very late tonight into early Tuesday morning. In spite of this, the chance for this is far too low to include in the TAFs at this time. Otherwise, expect CIGs to lower into the lower MVFR category overnight, and could even approach IFR conditions very late tonight into Tuesday. KJB && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. IN...None. LM...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to noon CST Tuesday for Winthrop Harbor IL to Gary IN. Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 3 PM CST Tuesday for Gary to Burns Harbor IN-Burns Harbor to Michigan City IN. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/chicago ####018006065#### FXUS61 KGYX 081723 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 1223 PM EST Mon Dec 8 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Cold conditions continue through Tuesday with high pressure in place. Low pressure moves in from the west, bringing snow and some rain Tuesday night and Wednesday. A cold airmass gradually settles in for the end of the end of the week and weekend with high pressure building into the Northeast. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Satellite imagery currently shows a mostly clear sky this afternoon, with some marine stratocumulus streams protruding out to sea. Breezy winds should gradually taper through the evening, with a quiet but chilly second half of the day expected. High pressure moves in overhead tonight. This will allow for skies to clear and winds to calm. These factors, in addition to the fresh snowfall received this morning should allow for a much colder night tonight. Lows look to be near 0F across the region, with lows possibly even in the -5F to -15F range north of the White Mountains. Wind chills could approach -20F across northern NH and northwestern Maine as well. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/... A mostly clear day is expected on Tuesday, though clouds will work in from the west by the end of the day. High temperatures could rebound quite a bit from the cold morning lows, with highs ranging from the lower 20s up north to lower 30s along the coast. A weak surface low moves quickly across the area. The low looks to potentially bring more convectively-driven snowfall, as soundings show at least a transition into an environment that will likely be favorable for snow squall development. This line of snow showers could put down a quick inch across NH and western Maine, though the Midcoast region may see a little more. Lows will be chilly, but not as cold as Monday night's, with lows in the teens expected. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Overview... Low pressure moves through New England on Wednesday. High pressure gradually builds in through the end of the week. An Arctic airmass then moves in through the weekend with building high pressure. Details... Low pressure occludes in the Great Lakes on Wednesday, with the warm front from this system moving into New England. At the same time, pressure falls likely occur offshore during the daytime on Wednesday as the system moves eastward. With this set up, warm air likely reaches the coastline on Wednesday, but will then struggle to move inland during the daytime. Given the set up, forecast temperatures were lowered from what the NBM had using colder guidance from the Canadian and Euro. With the cold airmass in place and arrival time of the precip, there is likely room to bring the freezing line closer to the coast, but we'll use this as a first step without going too far for now. This set up brings accumulating snowfall across the interior, with advisory level snowfall possible through the mountains and foothills. A burst of snow is likely along the coast to start, but temps likely rise enough to switch to rain along the coastal plain during the daytime. Again, we'll have to monitor any trend toward a colder solution going into the event, as models routinely underestimate the stubbornness of the cold in place. So rain may ultimately end up reserved for the immediate coastline and Southeast New Hampshire should a colder solution come to fruition. Following this system, a seasonable day is expected for Thursday before the next cold airmass arrives. Colder air returns Thursday night, with teens and single digits expected for lows. Friday looks cold and blustery as an Arctic airmass returns on northwesterly flow. The rest of the weekend looks seasonably cold, with mountain snow showers likely through this timeframe. There is the chance for a weak clipper system to bring a more organized period of light snow over the weekend , but we'll have to wait a few days for this system to come into a closer view. && .AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Short Term...VFR expected this afternoon, continuing through the end of the day Tuesday. A brief reduction in conditions appears likely Tuesday night as snow showers move through the area. Midcoast sites like KAUG and KRKD appear to be at the greatest risk for restrictions, though they can not be ruled out elsewhere. Long Term...IFR conditions are likely on Wednesday with interior snow and coastal rain. Conditions improve Thursday night, with VFR likely for most by Thursday. LEB and HIE stand the best chance to hold onto MVFR ceilings with an increasing upslope flow through the weekend. VFR mostly prevails, but there will be an increasing chance for some snow showers over the weekend. && .MARINE... Short Term...SCA conditions this afternoon will simmer as seas fall below 5ft and northwesterly winds over the waters slacken. Winds become light and variable overnight as high pressure moves overhead. On Tuesday, winds will shift to the southwest, strengthening through the day. They should reach SCA levels by the end of the day. Seas also ramp up Tuesday afternoon as well, with seas peaking at 4-7ft overnight Tuesday night. Long Term...Low pressure tracks across northern New England Wednesday and Wednesday night, with marginal southerly gales possible on Wednesday. SCA conditions linger through at least Friday night, with westerly gales possible on Friday behind a cold front. High pressure gradually builds a cross the waters over the weekend. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ150>154. && $$ NEAR TERM...Palmer SHORT TERM...Palmer LONG TERM...Clair