####018010583#### FXUS63 KGLD 100450 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 1050 PM MDT Sun Aug 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Air temperatures nearing 100-105 are forecast through Tuesday. Heat indices may approach 105 along and east of Highway 83 in Kansas. - Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued for portions of the area through 3am MT. - Patchy fog and perhaps dense fog again possible. - Storm chances continue daily the next few days. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1044 PM MDT Sun Aug 9 2026 Due to increasing concern for severe wind and possibly significant severe wind a Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for portions of the area through 3am MT. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 1141 AM MDT Sun Aug 9 2026 Upper air analysis continues to show the ridge of high pressure centered over the Four Corners Region. The ridge is expanding slightly to the east, and should continue to do so through the day. Satellite imagery shows clouds and smoke moving around the ridge; area of fog was shrinking over Central/Eastern Nebraska. At the surface a cold front was slowly moving south through the middle forecast area. Further north another boundary was moving south through Southern Nebraska. Unclear at this time how far south the weak cold front will move and how the other boundary moving south in Nebraska will affect the weather. Dew points are increasing behind it, so it may reinforce the higher dew points behind the cold front this afternoon. If it continues moving south through the morning it may push the cold front further south, which may also expand how far the better environment for hail would be. This afternoon some models show a potential for isolated storms over the southeast part of the forecast area as a weak upper level trough axis moves through. The weak cold front is already in the southwest part of the forecast area, and clouds are increasing in coverage nearby the front. Confidence is 20% for storms to form along the stalled front due to almost no instability and very weak lift at best. There may also be some aid from the LLJ nose along the southeast border of the forecast area. Dry lightning and wind gusts up to 60 MPH will be the main risk for any storms that form there. Regarding the heat potential, concur with prior shift that the heat index will be low enough to negate a heat advisory. In addition, the heat has been mentioned for a couple days in weather graphics and hazardous weather outlook so this is not a surprise heat wave. The main round of storm activity will move in from the west around 6 PM MT ahead of the upper level short wave trough. Model guidance indicates the majority of the storm activity should remain north of I-70. Worst case for wind gusts would be 70 MPH. Most of the model data is in the 40-50 MPH range for wind gusts. The best time for any severe wind gusts will be 7-10 PM MT, with the window for wind gusts from thunderstorms ending around midnight. Confidence is low (20%) for blowing dust to be much of an impact. As prior shift observed, mixing heights are quite high allowing dust to mix out, plus the most likely wind speeds will be under 60 MPH (dust storm conditions typically occur with wind gusts above 60 MPH). There continues to be a potential for large hail up to half dollar size this evening. This threat will mainly be north of Highway 36 where the deep layer shear will be around 30 kts and the instability will be higher due to the higher dew points. The window for large hail will be 7 PM to midnight MT. Given the same air mass as last night, heat busts may also occur with any storms that move through. There will be moisture advection over the northeast part of the forecast area overnight through sunrise Monday. As such fog may form so included a mention of patchy fog. Continue to be skeptical regarding receiving much rainfall with these storms. The cloud bases will be quite high, allowing evaporation to limit rainfall reaching the ground. However, wouldn't be surprised if the storm coverage ends up being higher than what the current forecast is suggesting. This is due to the role of the outflow boundaries potentially generating storms. If this happens storm coverage may be greater than forecast, but the storms will likely be moving rather quickly and not last long if the outflow boundaries are the main source for storm formation. The upper level short wave trough will move east of the forecast area during the overnight hours bringing storm chances to an end. Monday a similar weather pattern will continue. Highs will be similar to today. An upper level short wave trough will move into the forecast area from the west during the early evening. However the short wave trough looks to fill as it moves into the forecast area; this may be due to the ridge over the Southeast CONUS joining with the ridge over the Four Corners Region. Precipitation potential is much less than this evening, confined to East Central CO. Wind gusts should be of less magnitude than this evening. The storm/wind threat should end around 9 PM MT. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 239 PM MDT Sun Aug 9 2026 ***Tuesday*** A flattened ridge at 500-mb is favored to be in place overhead Tuesday morning. A shortwave trough embedded in the ridge favors a low developing at the surface across the forecast area. Surface winds are expected to be light as the low only undergoes weak to modest deepening and centers itself over the County Warning Area (CWA). Hot conditions look to continue under this setup, with highs currently forecast in the upper 90s to mid 100s. Confidence in a Heat Advisory being needed Tuesday continues to rise, currently around 40%. Additionally, dry conditions are forecast as light westerly to southwesterly surface flow continues to bring in dry air, and temperatures rise through the afternoon. Relative humidities are forecast as low as the upper teens across Eastern Colorado Tuesday afternoon. However, the risk for critical fire weather conditions is low due to the weaker surface winds. Confidence in a Red Flag Warning being needed is less than 5%. However, it should be noted that there is a small chance (20% chance or less) for showers during the evening hours Tuesday, particularly in West-Central Kansas and East-Central Colorado. NAMNST model soundings for 00z Tuesday show inverted-V profiles up to around 3 km, which may suggest the potential for dry lightning with these storms. This could serve as an additional form of fire starts. ***Wednesday/Thursday*** GEFS and EC ensemble guidance are in support of upper-level ridging remaining overhead through Thursday, as troughing builds in across the Western United States. The surface low from Tuesday looks to remain approximately stationary over the area Wednesday and Thursday. Easterly/northeasterly surface flow in Southern Nebraska ahead of southerly flow from the Gulf of America would support moisture returning to the area, in addition to temperatures beginning to cool. Highs are forecast in the 90s on Wednesday, and the upper 70s to upper 80s on Thursday. Additionally, LREF guidance shows a 75% chance or higher both Wednesday and Thursday for dewpoints greater than 60 F, most particularly across portions of Red Willow County in Southwest Nebraska, and Decatur and Graham Counties in Northwest Kansas. Thunderstorm activity appears more probable across the area as well. NBM 24 hr precipitation guidance shows probabilities in the 60-80% range across Southwest Nebraska and Northern Yuma County in Colorado for greater than 0.1 inches of rain Wednesday. These probabilities extend into Northwest Kansas and East-Central Colorado on Thursday. LREF guidance also shows that this activity will be in association with a 30-50% chance for surface CAPE (a measure of atmospheric instability) greater than 1000 J/kg. Thunderstorms are in the forecast both days, but the risk of them becoming severe is low at this time, as GFS and EC model soundings show less than 30 kts of sfc-500mb vertical shear both days. However, it is important to note that hotter conditions on Wednesday may promote microburst conditions with thunderstorms, which could be associated with 60-70 mph winds. Even so, confidence in severe weather occurring is about 5% each Wednesday and Thursday. ***Friday-Sunday*** Deterministic guidance diverges a bit by Friday, though ensembles continue to show troughing off to the west alongside ridging overhead. As such, conditions similar to that of Wednesday and Thursday are forecast, though there is some uncertainty regarding whether storms will be severe or not. Still, NBM 24 hr precipitation guidance shows the highest probabilities for greater than 0.1 inches of rain across Eastern Colorado (60-75% through Saturday). As for temperatures, highs in the 70s and 80s are forecast to continue through the weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1044 PM MDT Sun Aug 9 2026 Storms and outflow from storms are forecast to impact portions of the area tonight. Tracking an outflow which should impact GLD at the start of this period. MCK has storms developing around the terminal currently and has the favored threat for strong to damaging winds through around 08Z. Have concerns for fog developing behind the rainfall as winds weaken again and with a freshly saturated boundary layer. As has been the case over the past week with high dew points in place would not be surprised if fog and stratus does develop again so have gone a bit aggressive with ceilings for both and visibilities at MCK. Winds are forecast to to become southeasterly around 10-15 knots through the day Monday. Another potential for storms is possible for GLD Monday afternoon and evening but confidence is to low to include in this TAF at this time. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ UPDATE...Trigg SHORT TERM...JTL LONG TERM...Davis AVIATION...Trigg ####018003327#### FXUS66 KHNX 100450 AFDHNX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 950 PM PDT Sun Aug 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... 1. The Heat Wave will continue to be the major weather concern as the Extreme Heat Warnings will be in effect until Monday evening. 2. Persistent hot and dry conditions will also continue to promote the potential for wildfires with cured fuels. 3. Potential for thunderstorms over the Sierra Nevada crest continues for this afternoon and evening, with chances of 20 to 30% today and additional chances Tuesday through next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Heat Dome sitting over the West as temperatures continue to heat-up this late this weekend. Many San Joaquin Valley locations observed triple digit heat Today with values reaching 110 degrees across a wide area with reading up to 104 degrees at places like Chowchilla and Merced. Probability of Exceedance (PoE) of reaching 105 degrees will start to decrease on Tuesday as a downward trend will be see later this week. For now, the extreme heat is upon us with a transition starting on Tuesday. By Wednesday, the PoE of reaching 105 degrees drops to near zero and the PoE of 100 degrees drops to near zero percent on Thursday. Therefore, with PoE showing that downward trend through out the week across the San Joaquin Valley, relief from the heat will be felt later this week. Furthermore, the Kern Desert will be right in step with the Valley as temperatures value fall below 100 degrees by this Friday. With the High Pressure “Heat Dome” well over the Southwest, the flow aloft is now turning more southeasterly. This turn in the wind flow will has allowed a surge of Monsoonal Moisture to push closer to the Central California Interior. At the moment, moisture will be confined to the Sierra Crest and portions of Kern County. Ensemble forecast does show a up-tick in the precipitation spread across the the Sierra Crest. While the lower end of the spread for the period from Monday through Wednesday is zero (0.00”) the upper end shows a chance (10 percent) of receiving a wetting rain (0.10”-0.20”). Therefore, while the probabilities are low for Monday, they do increase going into Wednesday as a better surge of Monsoon Moisture pushes into the Sierra Nevada Crest. Therefore, will expect an up-tick on convection from very isolated on Monday to widely scattered by Wednesday. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours with light northwest winds during the day and variable winds overnight. Thunderstorms will have a 10-20 percent chance from 21Z Monday until 03Z Tuesday across the Sierra Nevada Crest. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES... None. && .CERTAINTY... The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium. Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback. && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM PDT Monday for CAZ300>319-321- 332-334>339. && $$ Public/Aviation....Molina weather.gov/hanford ####018004392#### FXUS65 KPUB 100451 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 1051 PM MDT Sun Aug 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Very hot with scattered, windy showers/thunderstorms through Tuesday. Heat Advisory remains in place over Pueblo/El Paso Fremont Counties for Monday. - Relief from the very hot temperatures and increased rainfall chances begin Wednesday, with widespread showers and thunderstorms into next weekend. - Concern for heavy rainfall and flash flooding will increase from late week into the weekend, especially over recent burn scars. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 129 PM MDT Sun Aug 9 2026 Currently, very hot again this afternoon, with temps already approaching record levels at a few stations as of 1 pm. Isolated high based convection also making a repeat appearance across the area, with wind gusts of over 60 mph with very weak showers already noted along I-25 north of Walsenburg. Remainder of the afternoon will stay hot with random, windy showers and brief thunderstorms, potentially persisting into the evening. Again, not much if any rain with convection, and even lightning will be limited to one or two strikes, as storms will tend to dissipate with 10-15 minutes after formation. For Monday and Tuesday, center of the upper high drifts eastward through NM, with weak w/sw flow aloft bringing a slow but steady increase in mid-level moisture to southern Colorado both days. Expect a continued ramp-up of mainly mountain convection as a result, and a few higher mountain locations may see wetting rainfall (QPF greater than 0.1 inches) as moist layer deepens. Lower elevations/valleys may see better storm coverage (weak front on the plains Tue may help), but still more wind than rain with most activity. Unfortunately, mid level temps stay warm, with only a degf or two of cooling by Tue afternoon. Will keep heat advisory in place for the Pueblo/El Paso/ern Fremont Counties Mon, and may need one for Tue as well as temps stay elevated. On the plains, maxes both days forecast to drop just slightly below the 105f threshold for an advisory, so will hold off on a heat highlight here for now. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 129 PM MDT Sun Aug 9 2026 Upper high center finally shifts into the srn Plains on Wed, then moves even farther east starting Thursday, ending up somewhere over the sern U.S. by the weekend. Resulting upper pattern continues to look favorable for an influx of moisture and widespread showers and thunderstorms starting Wed and persisting into the weekend across the entire region. Rainfall could be enhanced at times by weak upper level disturbances lifting over the wrn periphery of the ridge, with at least a couple weak cold fronts and associated ely upslope surges providing increased low level moisture over the ern mountains and plains. Heavy rainfall and flash flooding from slow-moivng storms continues to look like a threat from Wed onward, especially over recent burn scars, and even unburned locations and urban areas may see increased potential for flooding with repeated rounds of heavy rainfall. As the high moves away, mid level temps cool, and with added help from clouds and precip, max temps may actually end up a little lower than seasonal averages for a change, especially Fri/Sat. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1047 PM MDT Sun Aug 9 2026 High level VFR clouds will gradually dissipate overnight with winds remaining light and diurnally driven. Another round of high based showers and thunderstorms will be possible on Monday with gusty erratic outflow winds likely to impact all three terminals after 21-22z. TAFs will carry gusts up to 40 kts, but locally stronger gusts to around 50 kts could occur closer to decaying high based showers/tstorms. Winds will be driven by outflows into the evening though most of the activity should clear to the east of the terminals in the 01-02z timeframe. -KT && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM MDT Monday for COZ083>086. && $$ SHORT TERM...PETERSEN LONG TERM...PETERSEN/SKELLY AVIATION...KT ####018005251#### FXUS65 KVEF 100451 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 951 PM PDT Sun Aug 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Isolated thunderstorms will persist over the next several days, with the greatest chances over higher terrain and some storms spreading into adjacent valleys during the late afternoon and evening. * Dangerous heat will continue into Monday, with widespread Moderate to Major HeatRisk driven by well above normal temperatures and increased humidity. * An influx of monsoonal moisture will bring increased thunderstorm chances along with a gradual cooling trend by midweek. && .DISCUSSION...Today through next weekend. Another round of afternoon and evening thunderstorms is expected across the western Mojave Desert, southern Nevada, and southern Great Basin. Initial development is expected over higher terrain, but as the day progresses, some of the storms may spread into adjacent valleys. DCAPE measured from the 18Z Las Vegas sounding exceeded 1600 J/kg, so gusty winds will be the primary concern with storms that develop. PWAT values from the 18Z sounding have also increased slightly to near 1.15 inches, so brief downpours will also be possible. However, given the still relatively low moisture levels, some storms may produce lightning with little rainfall, increasing the risk of fire starts. Storms will diminish overnight, but additional thunderstorms are likely on Monday. Meanwhile, dangerous heat continues this afternoon, with widespread Major to isolated Extreme HeatRisk as temperatures exceed 110F across most of the Mojave Desert and climb above 100F in the Owens Valley. Major HeatRisk lingers into Monday for parts of the Colorado River Valley, Death Valley, and Las Vegas Valley. The Extreme Heat Warning has been extended through Monday evening for the previously mentioned areas, while the warnings and advisories for the remaining areas will expire this evening. Temperatures will drop off considerably beginning Tuesday as surface moisture increases. By midweek, the high-pressure ridge over the southwestern US will shift eastward and a weak low will develop off the Southern California coast. This pattern will draw deeper moisture northward into our region, resulting in more widespread thunderstorm coverage. With the increased moisture and cloud cover, temperatures will return to near or slightly below normal. However, the risk of isolated flash flooding will rise as PWAT values are forecast to climb to 150% to 200% of normal. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Expect breezy south-southeasterly winds in the late-morning into early- afternoon around 8 kts with occasional gusts between 15 and 20 kts. Winds will gradually veer southwesterly as the afternoon progresses. There is a 20-30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms around the Las Vegas Valley, which will kick off erratic gusts from their direction, should they come to fruition. There is a 10 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms directly over the terminal, so left it out of the prevailing TAF. Temperatures will exceed 100 degrees between 17 and 05Z, with a high temperature of 109. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected Monday afternoon across the forecast area, with low confidence in exact locations. If showers and thunderstorms form in the vicinity of terminals, expect gusty erratic winds from their direction. Best timing exists between 20 and 04Z. Otherwise, expect typical wind trends through the afternoon and evening. && .CLIMATE....Numerous climate locations have a forecast high temperature and/or forecast warm low temperature within 3 degrees of the daily record. The table below shows the daily record maximum temperature and the year the record was last set. An asterisk (*) denotes which records are in jeopardy (within 3 degrees of the forecast). MAX SUN, AUG 9 Record(Yr) Las Vegas 114(1940)* Bishop 107(1981)* Needles 117(2004) Daggett 113(1980)* Kingman 108(1940) Desert Rock 109(2012)* Death Valley 125(2012)* The table below shows the daily record warm minimum temperature and the year the record was last set. An asterisk (*) denotes which records are in jeopardy (within 3 degrees of the forecast). WARM MIN SUN, AUG 9 Record(Yr) Las Vegas 87(2025)* Bishop 65(2022)* Needles 92(1902)* Daggett 82(2024)* Kingman 79(2003)* Desert Rock 81(2012)* Death Valley 100(2024)* && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ DISCUSSION...Planz AVIATION...Soulat For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter ####018005562#### FXUS63 KOAX 100452 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1152 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Regular chances of thunderstorms continue each day through the forecast. Late Wednesday night (80%) and Thursday night (40-70%) bring the best chances. - Hot conditions linger with afternoon heat indices of 100 or more lingering into Wednesday across southwest Iowa. - Strong to severe storms are possible Monday and Tuesday. Large hail and damaging winds will be the primary threats. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1150 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026 Water vapor imagery shows zonal flow developing at 500 hPa as the ridging in the Four Corners area is dampened. A jet streak over the Dakotas is producing some elevated diffluence over this area and helping produce some widespread forcing for ascent. At the sfc, a warm front is draped in far northeastern Nebraska. The LLJ is starting to ramp up, too. The VWP at TWX (Topeka) showed wind speeds at 2kft doubling from 8pm to 9pm. As the winds picked up and isentropic upglide increased (warm air pushed up over the cooler Nebraskan air), we've watched some updrafts develop over the southern tier of counties in the CWA. There is ample instability available (4-5,000 J/kg) and marginally enough shear, but the area that enjoys (?) both shear and instability is limited to the small area along the NE/KS/MO/IA state lines through the next few hours. The lack of shear has already produced some strong but short- lived updrafts. For that reason, severe weather will be hard to produce. Still, large hail up to 1.75" and perhaps a damaging wind gust is possible. The strongest of the convection should be out of the CWA by 4am, but isolated PoPs along the KS state line could continue as late as noon. Lows will range from upper-60s up north to middle-70s where Nebraska/Missouri/Kansas meet. .MONDAY... The front remains mostly undisturbed along the KS state line leaving much warmer temperatures just south of here (mid- to upper-90s) while we peak near seasonal norms of mid-80s to near 90. Heat indices will fall shy of today's numbers and peak mostly in the 90s. SW Iowa should manage 100-105 and just below advisory criteria. With the heat and humidity, buoyancy spikes at near 5,000 J/kg of CAPE again, but CIN values may keep a lid on all the activity. Better chances of initiation is expected across western or central South Dakota. These storms will work in this direction and may produce large hail or damaging winds should they find their way this far east. Our best PoPs (10-25%) wait until after midnight when the western convection approaches. Storms will get a shot in the arm from that pesky LLJ developing after dark. It will be pointed directly at the front still hanging along Kansas border. .TUESDAY... Tuesday's temps will be warmer than Monday's by just a few degrees and with dewpoints expected to remain high thanks to continued southeasterly flow. Those few degrees will be instrumental in pushing heat indices into dangerous territory once again. Another heat advisory may be needed for areas southeast of the Omaha metro as heat indices should approach 100-110. Thunderstorm chances are a lot like those of Monday, dependent on a convective complex finding its way into the area from the west/northwest... probably after dark. By this point, those storms may be running on a cold pool and producing a swath of damaging winds. .THE REST OF THE FORECAST.. Low-level ridging over the Gulf keeps monsoonal moisture streaming through the southern Rockies and into the Corn Belt through the week and into the weekend. Regular opportunities for showers and thunder continue with the area remaining on the northern edge of the squat ridge. As a sfc low ejects out of the Rockies Wednesday night, it will tap into PWAT values of 1.75"+ which is in the 90th percentile of mid-August values (NAEFS). The WPC has the area highlighted with a marginal risk (1 of 4) of flooding Wednesday and a slight risk (2 of 4) on Thursday as the rain continues. NBM probabilities of seeing 1" or more of precip over Wednesday and Thursday peak at 60-70% along a ribbon of farmland from near Columbus to Omaha to Atlantic, IA. Areas both north and south of this ribbon have lesser chances. Cooler air pushes in from the north on Thursday and Friday when most locations will peak only in the 70s. With very little changing in the overall pattern, regular chances of afternoon and overnight thunderstorms continue into next weekend, too. It's a good sign for those of us familiar with the current state of the drought monitor. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 612 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026 An area of MVFR cigs are passing through east-central Nebraska this evening, but are isolated and expected to be the exception rather than the rule. A few spotty showers are also possible, but with odds at 10-20% maximum from about midnight to 4am, confidence isn't high enough to include at KLNK and KOMA. KOFK is likely to remain dry. Otherwise, expect light easterly winds to vary in direction at times overnight. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Nicolaisen AVIATION...Nicolaisen ####018004695#### FXUS64 KTSA 100453 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1153 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1107 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026 - Hot and dry weather will persist through the workweek. A Heat Advisory is in effect for portions of eastern Oklahoma, northwest and west-central Arkansas today (Monday). Additional heat headlines are likely in the coming days. - Low rain and storm chances will be confined to areas near the Kansas and Missouri borders late Friday and through the upcoming weekend as a frontal boundary stalls just north of the area. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Monday) Issued at 1107 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026 Mid/upper level ridging over the Four Corners will continue to be the main weather influencer for the foreseeable future. Models show the ridge flattening out and expanding eastward, eventually merging with the western Atlantic subtropical ridge that will be stretching westward across the southeast CONUS by Monday evening/night. Closer to the surface, lee troughing will remain intact over the High Plains. This will cause moderate to breezy southerly winds during the daytime on Monday, especially by mid- late afternoon. Still some questions as to exactly how much mixing will occur, but current thinking remains that most locations will still reach Heat Advisory criteria by noon or in the early part of the afternoon, before heat index values gradually fall mid-late afternoon. A Heat Advisory remains in place on Monday from noon until 8 PM for the same locations as Sunday. One change made was adding Carroll County to the Advisory. Anticipate afternoon heat index values similar to today, averaging between 105 to 109 F in the afternoon, with perhaps a few locations exceeding 109 F for an hour or two. Rain chances stay near zero through the short- term period. Mejia && .LONG TERM... (Monday Night through Sunday) Issued at 1107 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026 The mid/upper level subtropical ridge over the southeast CONUS will merge with ridging over the Desert Southwest by Tuesday. A trough will amplify and deepen over the West Coast early in the week, shifting the ridge axis eastward over the Plains by Wednesday. This will not only keep the oppressive heat in place, but will also suppress any significant rain chances through at least midweek. With that said, additional heat headlines will likely be needed for Tuesday and Wednesday. By Thursday and Friday, the ridge axis pushes farther eastward over the Mississippi Valley and the southeast CONUS. With the ridge east of the area late in the week, ensembles and medium-range guidance suggests a weak to modest cold front will drift southward from the Northern Plains and into the Central Plains by Thursday into Thursday afternoon. Model guidance and ensembles stall the front and keep it just north of the forecast area through the long- term, but do hint at low probabilities of a few showers and thunderstorms, perhaps as a result of outflow boundaries, drifting into the northern parts of the CWA late in the week and into next weekend. Assuming this verifies, at the very least, cloud cover may help reduce temperatures slightly by a few degrees for portions of the area. Otherwise, oppressive heat is expected to persist into next weekend. Mejia && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1153 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026 VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Southerly winds will become south southwesterly during the day, with gusts near 20 knots possible through early evening. A few high clouds and afternoon cumulus will be the only cloud cover, otherwise clear skies prevail. Bowlan && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 102 80 102 81 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 100 76 100 77 / 0 0 0 0 MLC 100 76 99 78 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 103 75 102 77 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 97 73 98 75 / 0 0 0 0 BYV 97 74 98 76 / 0 0 0 0 MKO 99 75 99 76 / 0 0 0 0 MIO 99 76 100 78 / 0 0 0 0 F10 101 75 100 76 / 0 0 0 0 HHW 97 74 97 76 / 10 0 0 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Monday for OKZ049-053- 055>068-070-071-073>075-154-172-176-254-272-276-354. AR...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Monday for ARZ001-002-129- 219-220-229. && $$ SHORT TERM...67 LONG TERM....67 AVIATION...04 ####018007568#### FXUS63 KMKX 100455 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 1155 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A few scattered thunderstorms across southeastern WI overnight into early morning, but cannot rule out a stronger storm or two and localized flooding especially if it sits over the same area. - Periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms are possible through the start of the week. The highest chances and stronger storm potential southern WI will be Tuesday morning/afternoon. - Second half of the week is trending drier with near normal temps with a more active pattern returning for the weekend. && .SHORT TERM... Issued 1200 AM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026 Today through Tuesday night: Warm frontal boundary and surface based instability gradient remains south of the WI/IL border overnight and continues to be the focus for strong to severe thunderstorm development through 09z. While not expecting the stronger surface based activity to move further north through the early morning hours, could see a few elevated storms perk up again across far southeastern WI as they tap into the 700mb WAA and MLCAPE. Thus will maintain 20-50% PoPs for this area for another few hours. Otherwise, expect this activity to wane through the early morning hours and capping increases. In additional to the Cheddar Curtain PoP chances, widespread rainfall from Sunday will contribute to increased low-level surface moisture paired dewpoint depressions of less than 3 degrees along with light/calm winds will be enough to support widespread fog development through daybreak across southern WI. Low-lying areas and creeks/river valleys may see the lowest visibilities with even isolated pockets of dense fog at times. However, conditions expected to improve after daybreak as temps warm. Looking at a normal August temps today with highs in the lower 80s, but will remain fairly muggy with dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s. While not much in the way of upper-level forcing, the stalled surface boundary set up overnight in IL may meander back northward through the day and set up closer to the WI/IL border. This paired with humid air mass and PWATs between 1.5-1.75 inches could be the focus for additional shower and thunderstorm development through the day. Main concern for our CWA is will the boundary lift far enough northward to bring the higher rain/storm chances into far southern WI. If this boundary does creep northward then could see late morning development with upstream convection trekking eastward through the morning initiating storms along the WI/IL border. Will be similar to Sunday and strong to severe storm potential remains given similar environment. However, the 00z CAMs are favoring the boundary staying to our south through much of the day and continue to be be more of an IL issue. Nevertheless, will continue to monitor and see how things evolve through the morning. The active pattern over the Midwest will continue into Tuesday as the upper-level low continues to meander around the Hudson Bay region. Still seeing signs of another mid-level shortwave trough rounding the base of the broader trough and tracking across the Upper Midwest through Tuesday morning. This is a fairly similar setup to the how things played out with Sunday round of storms across our neck of the woods. Thus looking at upstream convection bringing an MCV across the area Tuesday morning bring heavy, efficient rainfall and strong to even severe wind gusts if it maintains its strength. However, this activity will depend on where this lingering boundary sets up as well as prior days convection, thus the threat remains, but is conditional. Will have to watch and see how things take shape over the next 24-36 hours. Wagner && .LONG TERM... Issued 1200 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026 Wednesday through Sunday: Continue to see a trend in the global models of the upper-level low and trough beginning to track eastward into Quebec midweek and onward. As a result it will shift the active pattern eastward as well. While cannot completely rule out a stalled boundary and some shower/storm activity across the area Wednesday as hints of a mid- level vorticity lobe swings down the backside of the gradually departing upper-level trough, but any activity will be highly dependent on the prior days activity. However by Thursday, surface high pressure begins to build into the Upper Midwest and continue to build through Friday as the upper-level ridge axis builds across the central CONUS. This will bring a drier pattern to southern WI through the end of the week. Then the long range models and ensembles trends turn more active into the weekend as a series of mid-level shortwave trough as projected to swing across the region. This will bring a periodic shower and thunderstorm chances across the area Saturday and Sunday. Temps in the extended trend toward normal through the middle of the week before dipping to near or even below normal temps toward the end of the week. Wagner && .AVIATION... Issued 1200 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026 A few thunderstorms have develop over southeastern WI late tonight and may impact southeastern terminals such as ENW, but expecting this activity to wane after 06z-08z. Any activity may bring hail, heavy rainfall, reduced visibility, along with a few stronger gusts. Otherwise, much of southern WI terminals will see lighter winds paired with ample low level moisture to support fog development and lowering ceilings. Expect widespread MVFR conditions to develop overnight, with pockets of IFR and even LIFR especially for areas that saw heavier rainfall earlier. Then conditions are expected to improve after daybreak as the stalled frontal boundary remains south of the area into IL and weak high pressure tries to build in through the afternoon. However, could see some scattered showers and storms develop along and just north of the WI/IL border during the afternoon. Wagner && .MARINE... Issued 1200 AM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026 Unsettled pattern is expected for the start of the week as a frontal boundary meanders across the region. This boundary is stalled south of Lake Michigan early this morning and is bringing light and variable winds across the Lake through the morning into the afternoon. This boundary will also be the focus for additional shower and thunderstorm development this afternoon, but mainly looking to impact southern portions of the the Lake. Will continue to see light and variable winds into Tuesday as the boundary wobbles back north and as another storm complex is expected to track along it bringing showers and thunderstorms across the southern half of the Lake Tuesday morning and afternoon. Will see another day of shower activity along this boundary on Wednesday, but then looking at high pressure to build for the latter half of the week. Wagner && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.x.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee