####018003988#### FXUS64 KMAF 070735 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 135 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 131 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025 - A cold front moves through this morning, shifting winds to northerly, and dropping afternoon highs 7-12 degrees cooler than yesterday's for most. - Warming trend through much of the extended before a front arrives late in the week. - Precipitation chances remain near-zero through the forecast period. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday afternoon) Issued at 131 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025 Surface analysis shows evidence of a cold front draped across the Texas Panhandle near Amarillo. This cold front is expected to push through the area overnight/early this morning, shifting winds northerly, and dropping afternoon highs 7-12 degrees from yesterday's for most. Latest upper air analysis and water vapor imagery shows us under northwest flow aloft, yielding clear skies and dry conditions. Tonight's lows are also expected to drop from the previous night's in the post-frontal airmass. Clear skies and light winds will foster effective radiational cooling, yielding overnight lows in the low-to-mid 40s for most (except 20s in higher terrain and upper 30s to low 40s near the Rio Grande). Persistent northwest flow aloft and increasing heights as a ridge builds in from the west warms temperatures up a few degrees on Monday. Greening && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 131 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025 Dry northwesterly flow aloft persists Tuesday, with southerly to southwesterly winds at the surface. Skies remain clear, and temperatures continue to trend up. Highs in the upper 60s and low 70s can be expected across most of West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. This warming trend continues through mid-week, and by Thursday highs will be in the 70s areawide (low 80s in the Trans- Pecos and along the Rio Grande). Guidance continues to indicate a front will enter the area Thursday night or Friday morning, bringing cooler temperatures back to the region. More ensemble members have begun to favor a stronger front. As a result, highs have trended down from previous forecast packages. Temperatures are currently forecast to top out in the 50s and low 60s across the area Friday and Saturday. As always, we will continue to monitor trends in the data, as some spread/uncertainty remains regarding just how cool temperatures will get. Otherwise, precipitation chances are still near-zero through the extended. Sprang && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1056 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 VFR conditions forecast throughout TAF period. Southwest winds shift to northwest at terminals 08Z-12Z Sunday behind a cold front with breezy winds up to 10 to 15 knots at times. By 01Z-03Z Monday, winds veer back to southeast for terminals on the Stockton Plateau, Upper Trans Pecos, and Permian Basin, and south/southwest for terminals on the SE NM plains. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 60 32 64 34 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 62 31 65 33 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 70 39 65 37 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 63 36 69 38 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 56 36 57 37 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 60 31 62 32 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 63 26 63 29 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 61 34 63 35 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 60 35 62 35 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 62 32 64 31 / 0 0 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...55 LONG TERM....13 AVIATION...94 ####018007340#### FXUS63 KIND 070736 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 236 AM EST Sun Dec 7 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Snow with pathcy freezing drizzle and rain through this morning. Snow accumulation is expected to be minimal - Additional rain chances are expected Tuesday night through Wednesday...with light snow possible Thursday - Increasing confidence in widespread single digit lows with potentially dangerous sub-zero winds chills Friday and Saturday night && .SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)... Issued at 233 AM EST Sun Dec 7 2025 The synoptic pattern this weekend is highlighted by strong ridging over the eastern Pacific and a robust subtropical jet over the SE CONUS. This set up typically leads to quickly developing shortwaves in the divergent region of supergeostrophic jet streaks, the first of which is arriving this morning and passing throughout the day. This wave will begin to weaken some as it encounters upper level convergence near the aforementioned subtropical jet, but will still have enough lift for precipitation over northern portions of central Indiana. This wave has a multitude of characteristics that is making the forecast challenging, the first being a low level dry column of air, that will likely remove some ice nuclei over portions of central Indiana this morning. In return, this would favor freezing drizzle for a brief period before greater saturation and a transition back to snow or a freezing rain/snow mix. This leads into the second forecast challenge, the location of the freezing rain/snow transition line. A modest baroclinic zone resides over the region leading to an isothermal layer that is near the freezing point. Upstream observations are showing a narrow corridor where a weak warm nose is allowing for some freezing rain, but the remainder of the precipitation is falling as snow. As daytime heating and greater WAA occurs, a transition to rain is possible, but most of the measurable precipitation should be out of the area by 10AM limiting any rain if it does occur Trends have been continuing towards a sharper cutoff in QPF on the southern edge of this system due to low level dry air, and this is showcased in the forecast with most of central Indiana now at T to 0.1 inches for expected snowfall. In far northern regions (including Lafayette and Kokomo) deeper saturation should allow for greater accumulation with current expectations of 0.2-0.5 inches. Any ice accumulation is expected to be very light, but could be enough for a very thin glaze in isolated areas. This could create patchy slick conditions on untreated surfaces. The residual boundary following the shortwave passage will slowly meaner southward today. Along it, low stratus with reduced visibilities of 2-5SM and patchy drizzle is expected. This boundary will continue to move south until it interacts with an approaching low level wave from the south this evening and overnight. This should allow for some weak deformation and greater forcing over southern Indiana late today and tonight with narrow bands of snow likely forming. There is still a wide range in potential outcomes with tonight snowfall, but the 00Z suite is showing greatest confidence in T-1" of snowfall over far SE portions of central Indiana including Greensburg and Seymour. Best chance for accumulating snow tonight will be between 8PM and 1AM before the forcing moved into N KY and W OH. $$ && .LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)... Issued at 233 AM EST Sun Dec 7 2025 Monday through Tuesday... Quiet weather conditions are expected at the beginning of the period as surface higher settles over the region along with a colder airmass. Single digit wind chills are expected near or north of I-70 Monday morning. The cold start along with lingering clouds early will help keep daytime highs generally in the mid 20s to mid 30s despite increasing sunshine in the afternoon. Guidance depicts a weak system passing to the north of the area Monday night into Tuesday promoting greater cloud cover. Precipitation is not expected due to forcing remaining well to the north and limited moisture return. Increasing warm air advection by Monday night will start to trend temperatures warmer. Lows Monday night are likely going to range from the mid teens to low 20s. Strengthening southwesterly flow will help to warm temperatures into the upper 30s to mid 40s on Tuesday. A tight pressure gradient along with at least some diurnal mixing could promote gusts up to 30mph. Tuesday night through Saturday... Models suggest another shortwave quickly moves in Tuesday night into Wednesday. Deeper moisture return and more favorable alignment of forcing supports increasing chances for precipitation. It does appear the strongest forcing should be to the north again resulting in light QPF amounts. Predominately rain is expected with continued warm air advection keeping temperatures above freezing. Snow briefly mixing in with rain cannot be ruled out late Wednesday though as colder air filters in behind the departing cold front. A strong pressure gradient will likely promote breezy or windy conditions through Wednesday. Expect temperatures to trend colder late this week, especially Friday into the weekend with another shot of colder air behind another system Thursday and Thursday night. This system brings the potential for snow Thursday and Thursday night with light accumulations possible. Portions of south-central Indiana may see more of a rain/snow mix depending on the strength of warm air advection. Light snow showers or flurries could linger into Friday as weak forcing and low-level moisture appear to remain over the area. Confidence is increasing in the potential for widespread single digit temperatures with potentially dangerous sub-zero wind chills Friday night into Saturday morning and Saturday night into Sunday morning. Look for highs generally in the 20s Friday followed by colder highs in the teens Saturday. && .AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)... Issued at 115 AM EST Sun Dec 7 2025 Impacts: - MVFR cigs becoming IFR after 08Z - Wintry mix to bring MVFR to IFR vsbys at times 09Z through 15Z - Residual lowered vsbys possible through 19Z - Winds shifting from south to northwest Discussion: Cigs will continue to fall across the terminals through 08Z when IFR conditions will become more frequent. Snow is likely towards LAF as early as 09Z with freezing drizzle and rain mixing in towards HUF and IND. This will lead to periods of MVFR to IFR vsbys with some potential for non-dense fog both before and after the periods of precipitation. Winds will be variable through the TAF period, mainly easterly tonight before becoming southerly tomorrow morning and westerly by the afternoon. Speeds are expected to remain 10kts or less. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Updike LONG TERM...Melo AVIATION...Updike ####018007119#### FXUS61 KCAR 070738 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 238 AM EST Sun Dec 7 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front exits Maine early this morning, followed by high pressure building in through Sunday. An area of low pressure tracks from northeastern New York Sunday evening to near southeastern Nova Scotia early Monday morning. High pressure builds in behind this system through Monday night, then slides offshore on Tuesday. Another weak low tracks across the Gulf of Maine Tuesday night. A stronger low pressure system tracks from the Great Lakes Wednesday morning to the southern Canadian Maritimes by Thursday morning, followed by a cold front crossing the area on Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Key Messages -Cold weather continues through Monday -Light snow event tonight expected to bring a few inches to areas south of the Katahdin region An arctic cold front passing through the state may bring a few snow showers to northern Maine through about 5 AM. By daybreak, the front should have exited the area with blustery NW flow in its wake acting to bring in more cold air from Canada. Expecting temperatures to be around 5 degrees below normal through the day. Otherwise, expect partly cloudy skies early with increasing clouds later in advance of an approaching weak low pressure system. On Monday night, a weak low pressure system will approach from western New England and undergo some modest intensification over the Gulf of Maine. Accumulating snow is expected generally south of the Katahdin region with a few inches possible in the Bangor and Downeast regions. There is still some uncertainty regarding how strong the low will be which will impact snowfall amounts and there is also the question of how far north the snow will fall. Some guidance shows a weaker, more southerly solution while other guidance depicts a stronger, more northerly solution. Regardless, greatest chance for snowfall along the coast and interior Downeast/Bangor region. Expect snowfall to be light and fluffy as a result of cold temperatures in the teens and single digits farther north. Snow should mostly end by the morning commute but some slippery conditions are still possible. High pressure builds in during the day leading to clearing skies and some blustery conditions. The gusty winds could blow some snow around and is expected to result in wind chills near zero over southern areas and in the negative single digits farther north. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Key Messages -Light snow possible Tuesday night Mainly clear and cold conditions are expected Monday night as high pressure builds across. Overnight lows will fall to around zero across much of the region, with lows in the single digits below zero in the normally colder valleys. The high moves off the coast during Tuesday with a southwest return flow developing. This will result in afternoon highs moderating somewhat into the mid teens to around 20 degrees for the north, and mid 20s to around 30 degrees for the Bangor region and Downeast. A short wave embedded in the westerly flow aloft will approach from the west Tuesday evening and then crosses the region during Tuesday night. This feature will likely bring a quick shot of light snow to the region Tuesday night, especially for central and Downeast portions of the forecast area. At this time, looks like accumulations with this feature will be an inch or less. Lows Tuesday night will not be quite as cold as previous nights due to increasing clouds and a southerly wind. Nevertheless, lows will still range in the single digits north and the mid to upper teens for the Bangor region and Downeast. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Key Message -Light snow Wednesday night north with a snow/rain mix for the Bangor region After a brief break in the weather Wednesday morning, a fast moving clipper type system will approach from the west. Precipitation with this system will develop from west to east Wednesday afternoon. Still model differences with the track of this feature. Some models track the low across the crown of Maine or just to our north Wednesday night, while some track it closer to the coast. The track could have implications on precipitation types. But at this point, the blended model approach favors snow across the north and a snow/rain mix, possibly changing to plain rain for the Bangor region and Downeast. Precipitation will taper off early Thursday followed by partly sunny/mostly cloudy conditions by afternoon. Friday looks mainly dry. There are some indications that low pressure may try to take shape in the vicinity of the mid atlantic region by next weekend. Stayed with the model blended forecast parameters for Saturday which yielded a chance of snow. Afternoon high temperatures through the period are expected to continue to average below normal for this time of year. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR today. A few snow showers through 9z possible which could result in brief MVFR. Conditions deteriorate to MVFR tonight after 0z for southern terminals with light snow and after 4z for northern terminals with snow showers. Some brief IFR possible at southern terminals due to reductions in visibility from the snow. Conditions improve to VFR Monday morning. Winds 10 to 15 kts with gusts up to 20 kts early this morning decrease to light and variable tonight. Winds 10 to 15 kts with gusts 20 to 25 kts Monday. SHORT TERM: Monday night through Tuesday...VFR. Tuesday night...MVFR or lower in light snow. Wednesday and Wednesday night...VFR early, then MFVR or lower by afternoon into the night in snow north and snow/rain mix. Thursday...MVFR/VFR. Gusty NW wind possible. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Winds may briefly approach small craft advisory criteria early this morning with a few gusts to 25 kts then subside to below criteria through midnight tonight. Winds increase to near gale criteria on the outer waters Monday morning and thus have issues a gale watch. Winds above small craft criteria on the inner waters Monday and thus have issued a small craft advisory. Seas will also increase to small craft criteria Monday over the outer waters. SHORT TERM: SCA conditions expected Monday night through Tuesday. Could see a return to gale force conditions Tuesday night, otherwise SCA conditions are likley mid to late week. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Gale Watch in effect from Monday morning through Monday afternoon for Anz050-051. Small Craft Advisory in effect from 4AM to 11 PM EST on Monday for Anz052. && $$ Near Term...SM Short Term...TWD Long Term...TWD Aviation...SM/TWD Marine...SM/TWD ####018010602#### FXUS62 KRAH 070739 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 240 AM EST Sun Dec 7 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A front will hold to our southeast through the rest of the weekend, as weak high pressure settles over North Carolina and the Mid Atlantic region. An Arctic cold front will move southeastward through the area on Monday, while an upper level disturbance passes overhead. Chilly high pressure will build in from the north Monday night and Tuesday, then move to our southeast, allowing a southwest flow and milder temperatures to return for Wednesday and Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/... As of 200 AM Sunday... * Fog/stratus through the noon hour, then trending gradually to partly cloudy in the afternoon, but uncertainty is high. * Not as chilly as yesterday, but still below normal. * Clouds increase overnight, with a little light precip spreading into the Piedmont from the W late. We'll stay in a fast and flat WSW steering flow today, while at the surface, weak high pressure analyzed over NC and the Mid Atlantic holds in place before drifting offshore late. The most noteworthy issue today is determining when the morning fog and stratus will most likely burn off. The mid and upper levels will briefly dry out Sun behind the departing weak mid level perturbation and upper jet streak pushing ENE off the Mid Atlantic coast, which should allow some insolation that might help burn off the fog/stratus from the top. But with weak surface flow to inhibit horizontal mixing, and with steady slow warming taking place just aloft (~925-900 mb) helping to reinforce the surface-based stability, we could see low clouds hanging on in most areas well into the afternoon. Even if some of the area sees at least a few hours of partial sunshine prior to sunset, it may not be enough to warm up temps much. As such, forecast high temps today will be a few degrees below yesterday's expectations, mainly in the upper 40s to around 50, warmer than Sat but still below seasonal normals. Our attention then turns to a shortwave trough over WY/CO early this morning that will shift through the Mid Miss Valley and across TN toward W NC through tonight, propelled by energy diving into the trough from the Upper Midwest. This trough will be associated with an Arctic cold front that will move into the Mid South, Ohio Valley, and central Appalachians overnight. High and mid level clouds are expected to spread in from the west starting in the evening, and we'll see a trend toward weak mid level DPVA in our west late, but there's little opportunity for substantial moisture return into our area through the lowest several thousand ft AGL. PW does inch up across W NC late, but values are still near or just slightly above normal, thus any mechanisms to force ascent will need to work on what little moisture is attending the system. Will have mostly low chance pops spreading into the W CWA late, and given the stubborn pocket of drier low level air, any amounts initially should be very light. Based on high res guidance, there is a high chance for ice in the clouds, and if any of these hydrometeors can survive the layer of drier air just off the surface (in a seeder-feeder process), we may see a little light snow mixed in with light rain at the ground toward morning. But overall, the expected surface wet bulb temps are likely to be just above freezing through the night, favoring just liquid for ptype through tonight. Lows across the CWA will be around 31-36. -GIH && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 240 AM Sunday... * Chance of precipitation areawide Mon, likely mixing with then changing to a period of all snow before ending, especially across the N and W. * Precip amounts should generally be under a quarter inch liquid equivalent, suggesting that any snow accumulation would be mostly under an inch given the initial rain/snow mix, but stay tuned. Forcing for ascent focused in the mid and upper levels should continue to ramp up early Mon as the aforementioned trough approaches, but the incoming PW values will likely be just near normal and falling further late in the day as the mid-upper levels start to dry out. But forecast soundings show at least a few hours in which the column is saturated or nearly so throughout the mixed phase region aloft down to the surface, occurring in conjunction with peak mid level DPVA from late morning through late afternoon W to E. The incoming Arctic front is expected to push SSE through central NC in the afternoon, so the coldest air may be chasing the better moisture to some degree during the morning hours, particularly if the higher terrain manages to delay the coldest and most dense air for a few hours. But we're still likely to see an atypical temp trend with surface temps falling in the afternoon, and confidence is increasing that we'll see at least a couple of hours of predominant light wet snow over all but the far S and SE CWA Mon afternoon as the low levels cool, with accumulations potentially limited by the initial rain/snow mix, the surface temps sitting near or slightly above freezing for much of the day, and the modest PW values. Model agreement is good in showing a thermal pattern supporting patchy light rain chances at onset, followed by good chance to likely pops for a light rain/snow mix, then changing to mostly light snow before ending in the late afternoon or very early evening, with no reasonable chance of any icing or freezing precip. Total accumulation should range from a trace along and N of a line from the Triad to near Goldsboro, ranging to one half to just under one inch near the VA border. Expect highs in the upper 30s to mid 40s early, with readings falling through the 30s in the afternoon. Cold lows Mon night in the mid teens to low 20s will lead to minimum wind chills in the teens in most places overnight into Tue morning. While any lingering precip on the ground will begin to dry out overnight, we'll be lacking a strong wind to aid in the drying process, and there is a good chance in a flash freeze with areas of black ice developing, which would cause travel concerns late Mon night into early Tue. -GIH && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 130 PM Saturday... -Chilly, below average temperatures expected Mon-Tues. -Light wintry mix possible Monday mainly across northern Piedmont. -Another chance for precip late Thursday into Friday. A cold front will move across the region on Monday, with cold air chasing the departing precipitation through the day. Morning temperatures will start near freezing along the VA border and in the mid to upper 30s elsewhere. Rain will be the primary precipitation type, but temperatures will gradually fall through the afternoon as colder air arrives. This may allow for a rain/snow mix across portions of the northern Piedmont—generally from Rocky Mount to Raleigh to Lexington. Before precipitation tapers off early Monday evening, a brief changeover to light snow is possible near the VA border. Any accumulations would be minor and mainly limited to elevated surfaces given warm ground temperatures. All precipitation will exit the region by Monday evening. By Tuesday morning, surface high pressure will settle over the Mid- Atlantic. A surge of overnight cold air will allow temperatures to drop into the upper teens to low 20s. With light to calm winds, any leftover moisture on roads may freeze, creating the potential for black ice during the Tuesday morning commute. High pressure will dominate Tuesday and Wednesday, supporting dry weather. Highs both days will range from the low to mid-40s. Lows will fall into the 20s Tuesday morning and into the mid to upper 30s Wednesday morning. Late in the week, another shortwave will move across the northern US, bringing increasing precipitation chances. While guidance shows some spread in the timing, track, and moisture availability, the general consensus suggests precipitation could return by late Thursday afternoon—mainly across the NW Piedmont—before a front sweeps through the region on Friday. Conditions should dry out again by Saturday morning. Behind the front, highs on Saturday will be cool, in the upper 30s to low 40s, with another round of lows in the upper teens to low 20s Saturday morning. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 1250 AM Sunday... * Dense fog this morning, followed by slowly improving aviation conditions today, and then another period of sub-VFR tonight. With no airmass change in the past couple of days, and none expected until Monday, dense fog has set in quickly across nearly all of central NC and will persist perhaps as late as 15Z this morning. With temps solidly below freezing across the Piedmont, many areas are susceptible to some freezing fog. Once the fog begins to lift, conditions should again be slow to improve today, with some guidance suggesting some sub-VFR ceilings at least temporarily lingering in the afternoon. Based on persistence forecasts, will lean toward the slow improvement today and indicate VFR potential after 18Z. Light and variable or southerly winds will prevail. Once again with the same moist airmass in place tonight, fog is a possibility, although high clouds streaming in from the SW ahead of an approaching upper disturbance may inhibit widespread dense fog. Outlook: A strong upper disturbance crossing the region on Monday will bring a mix of rain and snow, changing to snow in some northern areas before ending Monday evening. Chances of light snow are higher from INT/GSO to RDU and RWI. VFR conditions will then persist through much of early to middle of next week. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freezing Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST Sunday for NCZ007>011- 021>028-041. Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST Sunday for NCZ038>040-042- 043-073>078. Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EST Sunday for NCZ083>086-088- 089. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hartfield NEAR TERM...Hartfield SHORT TERM...Hartfield LONG TERM...CA AVIATION...BLS