####018005799#### FXUS64 KLIX 070740 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 140 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025 ...New UPDATE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 134 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025 - Another shot of colder air will follow the passage of a strong cold front Sunday night. The coldest air won't arrive until Monday with the coldest night being Monday night/Tuesday morning. - About an 18 hour period of hazardous marine conditions behind the cold front late Sunday night through Monday afternoon before conditions improve. - Temperatures warming to well above normal for Wednesday and Thursday before much colder weather arrives next weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued at 134 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025 Sending an update to introduce patchy fog for this morning. We will definitely have fog in some areas. The question is whether it will be dense. A build down scenario looks to be occurring and if this is the case, we should see some if not most areas vis fall to around or below 1/2 mile around 4am this morning. If dense fog becomes a higher probability, we will produce an advisory for this morning. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Monday night) Issued at 1143 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 A broad upper trough covered much of the eastern two thirds of the country this evening, with ridging along the Pacific Coast. Quasi- zonal flow was noted along the northern Gulf Coast ahead of a shortwave near the Texas Big Bend area. At the surface, high pressure extended from Kentucky to Georgia. Frontal boundaries were well to the south over the central Gulf, and well to the north near Interstate 70. Patchy light rain was noted over the lower portions of the Louisiana coastal parishes. Low clouds were covering much of the area with temperatures mainly in the lower and middle 50s with light easterly winds. The southern stream shortwave over the Big Bend area will shift eastward and be moving off the Georgia coast Sunday evening. A strong northern stream shortwave will dig into the base of the trough over the Appalachians by Monday. Low pressure associated with the southern stream shortwave may briefly turn winds southeasterly during the day Sunday, allowing temperatures to warm to near 70 Sunday afternoon. As the shortwave and low pass east of the area Sunday night, winds will shift to the north and much cooler and drier air will arrive late Sunday night and Monday. Scattered showers and perhaps a few storms could accompany the front. Likely to see some sunshine by Monday afternoon, but gusty northerly winds will make it feel cooler than it looks. Temperatures aren't likely to move much prior to sunrise Sunday. Temperature solutions for the most part are pretty close to the ECMWF guidance through Monday. Won't entirely rule out a freeze across northern areas early Tuesday morning, but not specifically forecasting it at this point. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Saturday night) Issued at 1143 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 With the longwave trough axis to our east for the middle of the week, the upper flow will be northwesterly, which should keep the area dry through at least Thursday. If there is going to be any precipitation during this portion of the forecast, it will probably be Thursday night and/or Friday morning as a northern stream shortwave passes well to the northeast of the area, dragging a cold front across us. Tuesday will be chilly until the surface high axis passes to the east of the area. Wednesday and Thursday will be the warm days for the week, approaching 70 Wednesday and well into the 70s on Thursday. Colder air will arrive again on Friday, with high temperatures Saturday and Sunday of next weekend likely not getting out of the 50s, if that warm, with a freeze possible late Saturday night. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1143 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 IFR or lower conditions in place at most terminals, primarily ceilings. Little improvement expected overnight and could deteriorate some more to near field minima. May be just enough wind to hold off extremely low visibilities. Could see some improvement in ceilings by mid to late morning, but probably will not get above FL010 or FL015. SHRA or RA will return just ahead of cold front, which will move through most or all terminals between 00z Monday and 06z Monday. Winds will turn northerly and gusts above 20 knots beyond 06z, which will impact KMSY during the last 6 hours of its forecast period. && .MARINE... Issued at 1143 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 Likely to need Small Craft Advisories across most or all waters from 06z Monday to 06z Tuesday due to cold air advection behind the cold front. Conditions should improve during the day Tuesday, with no further wind related issues until perhaps Friday afternoon behind the next cold front. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 65 45 54 33 / 50 60 0 0 BTR 70 47 57 35 / 60 60 0 0 ASD 68 47 59 34 / 40 70 0 0 MSY 70 51 60 43 / 50 60 0 0 GPT 67 49 60 37 / 40 70 0 0 PQL 68 47 60 34 / 30 70 0 0 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM CST Monday for GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577. MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM CST Monday for GMZ532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577. && $$ SHORT TERM...RW LONG TERM....RW AVIATION...RW MARINE...RW ####018008821#### FXUS62 KMHX 070741 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 241 AM EST Sun Dec 7 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will remain in control today as a front remains stalled offshore. A cold front will move through late tonight and early Monday with low pressure developing along it. High pressure will build back over the area mid week. Another low and cold front move in late in the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 2 AM Sun...Latest analysis shows high pressure centered over the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas, cold front extending through the NE US and back through the Mid-West, with another front stalled offshore the SE coast. While there is still potential for patchy freezing fog for inland areas early this morning, low stratus is keeping temps in the upper 30s to low 40s...so not sure it will make it down to freezing. However, patchy dense fog to the west may continue to advect into the coastal plain in the next few hours, so will continue to monitor trends with the potential need for a Dense Fog Advisory. High pressure remains in control today, keeping the area mostly dry. Skies likely to remain party to mostly cloudy today as mid and high clouds continue to stream in. Low lvl thickness values and clouds support highs in the upper 40s to low 50s. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... As of 2 AM Sun...Approaching cold front will move through the area late tonight and early Monday, while strong shortwave approaches the Carolinas. Cloud cover will likely keep temps for most areas above freezing overnight, but could see patchy inland fog develop again before northerly winds increase towards sunrise. Expect most of the night to remain dry with low end precip chances increasing towards sunrise. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 2 AM Sun...Light snow possible across inland areas Monday afternoon and evening. Then dry and seasonably cold mid week. Another weather maker possible by week's end, turning much colder next weekend. Monday...The start of next week brings another chc of precip with passage of cold front expected. Aloft, upper low will swing through, inducing offshore cyclogenesis late in the day and evening. Typical cold air chasing moisture scenario, where temps tumble through late afternoon, while moisture is coming to an end. However, most 00z guidance is trending towards a wetter and colder scenario. There will likely be some overlap where rain mixes with and changes over to some snow, especially across the NW portions of the area. Very light snow accumulations will be possible, likely less than 1"...and more than likely limited to grassy and elevated surfaces given the warm ground. Probabilities for light accums continue to tick upwards...will continue to monitor trends in high res guidance. Mon night lows will fall into the 20s inland and 30s along the beaches and immediate coast. Tuesday through Thursday...Dry conditions expected as high pressure builds back in at the surface behind Monday's front and trough axis aloft finally pushes E of the coast. Highs in the 40s Tue warming back into the 50s Wed and Thu as winds become Sw. Good radiational cooling will bring lows into the 20s for most of Mainland ENC, with 30s on the beaches and OBX Tue night/Wed morning. Friday through Saturday...Next chc for appreciable precip arrives by week's end, as next shortwave trough swings through the Ern CONUS in a cont active synoptic pattern. Due to uncertainty this far out in details and timing, pops kept at low chc (30%) or lower for now. At this time, ptype looks to remain all liquid. Much colder air expected behind the front for next weekend with highs back into the 30s and 40s and lows well below freezing. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 0200 Sunday... Key Messages - Low confidence forecast overnight as guidance struggling with ongoing low level stratus across the entire area. - Brief improvements from LIFR/IFR possible overnight - Any improvement could lead to another drop to subMVFR Widespread IFR CIGs are ongoing across ENC but stratus field appears to be eroding from NE to SW. The question, then, is when do low clouds clear out (if at all), and how quickly will BR/FG form after that point. There now appears to be 3 possible scenarios and it is looking like all 3 scenarios could occur simultaneously over the FA with select terminals remaining locked in under the stratus, others clearing and going to denser fog, with others showing a more gradual transition. 1) Low CIGS continue to linger longer than expected, then gradually lower through the night with modest reductions to VIS. 2) Low CIGs clear out, and widespread FG develops shortly after with significant reductions to VIS. 3) Low CIGs eroding, but not completely clearing, allowing for improvement of CIGs to MVFR and keeping the dense fog threat at bay. There is very little consensus through the entire model suite with some not picking up on the stratus field that has already been occuring and hammering VIS due to fog, while the bulk of guidance that is showing the stratus field does not have the greatest areal solution, and is likely going with persistence forecast for the very near term. There's a chance that the initialization of erosion and advection of the low level stratus could be quicker than previously forecast, but not as much drastic clearing, leading to a window of MVFR flight cats spreading from NE to SW across ENC. With low level moisture still in place with little to no airmass change and recent rainfall, fog development is still certainly possible, but don't believe it will be as quick as a changeover as previously forecast or what the solution #2 model grouping is suggesting. Will keep a mostly subMVFR TAF going but there is really potential that MVFR CIGs develop and hang on through the bulk of the overnight period, which would through a wrench in radiational fog development leading to IFR or even LIFR VIS. The best news of this TAF cycle is that the T and MinT temp forecast has increased to above freezing for the FA, which lowers the already less than likely freezing fog probability. Regardless of which combination of the above 3 scenarios plays out overnight, CIGs and VIS will gradually improve come sunrise this morning, with an improvement to VFR flight cats by the afternoon. Outlook: By Monday, pattern becomes wet again return to sub-VFR flight cats likely as the developing low pressure makes it closest point of approach. VFR conditions are then once again expected Tue into Wed across ENC. && .MARINE... As of 2 AM Sun... Key Messages - Strong winds and dangerous seas expected Monday and Monday night. Latest obs show N-NW winds 10-15 kt gusting to 20 kt across the warmer waters near the Gulf Stream, with seas 3-5 ft. High pressure remains in control today with front stalled well offshore. Winds become N-NE 5-10 kt today with seas 2-4 ft. Light winds this evening grad increasing to 15-20 kt by early Mon morning. Mon...Backdoor front passes through and strong northerly winds develop 15-25 kt for the rivers, sounds and nearshore waters, and 20-30 kt gusting 30-40 kt for the water outer waters. Upgraded to Gale warnings for the southern and central waters, Gale watch for the northern waters and SCAs for the rivers and sounds. Seas will quickly increase to 6-10 ft Monday and continue into early Tue. Tue through Thu...Winds and seas relax a bit, though by late Wed winds turn swrly and inc to 15-25 kt for the sounds and nearshore waters, and 20-30 kt with potential gale gusts for the warmer outer waters south of Hatteras. Gusty WNW early Thu grad easing through the day. Seas peak will at 4-8 ft late Wed, then subsiding to 2-4 ft by late Thu. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Monday to 1 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ131-230-231. Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Monday to 4 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Monday to 1 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ136-137. Gale Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for AMZ150. Gale Warning from 11 AM Monday to midnight EST Monday night for AMZ152-154-156-158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...CQD SHORT TERM...CQD LONG TERM...CQD/TL AVIATION...CEB MARINE...CQD