####018005148#### FXUS62 KILM 231318 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 918 AM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will move offshore and allow for a gradual warmup until a back door cold front arrives Wednesday night. High pressure will build in Thursday into Friday with gradual warming for the weekend into early next week as the high shifts off of the east coast. && .UPDATE... After a chilly morning with steam fog over lakes and rivers, temps are rapidly warming beneath clear skies. Expect highs to reach into the low 70s this afternoon with the main limiting factor being subsidence atop the boundary layer. Large dewpoint depressions will bring RHs down to around or below 30 percent, but light winds will preclude any notable fire weather concerns. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Light winds across the area this morning are the result of high pressure centered across the western Carolinas. This high should push east to the coast by noon today, then will slip offshore this afternoon. Aside from a little thin cirrus from time to time, skies should remain sunny today. Mixing heights of 6000+ feet should mix down drier air with dewpoints dipping into the mid 30s for many inland areas this afternoon. With forecast highs in the lower 70s, this should result in relative humidity falling below 30 percent. Fortunately with such light winds expected there are no fire weather concerns. As the high moves farther offshore tonight, the pressure gradient should tighten up as a cold front approaches the central Appalachians. A moderate low level jet with 1000-1500 foot AGL winds increasing to 25-30 knots should maintain a turbulent boundary layer overnight and forecast lows are only in the upper 40s inland and lower 50s near the coast, about 10 degrees warmer than what is currently being experienced this morning. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As high pressure moves farther offshore on Wed, a warmer southwesterly return flow will develop and help warm things up with high temps back up around normal...close to 80. It will start out very dry with pcp water values close to .3 inches but as the day progresses, there will be an increase in clouds from the NW ahead of a cold front. Overall, the forcing remains weak, but there may be enough moisture between 5k to 15k ft to produce a stray shower or two by Wed eve, but for now will keep any pcp out of the forecast. The cold front moves offshore overnight with showers possible over the waters into the early morning hours. High pressure will build down from the Great Lakes on Thurs with little in the way of clouds, but temps will be slightly cooler with highs reaching into the 70s. Overnight lows both Wed night and Thurs night will be down toward 50 inland and several degrees warmer along the coast. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Ridge builds up along the east coast Fri through early next week with a general warming trend through the weekend into early next week. Temps will reach the mid 70s to around 80 most days. There will be some clouds periodically a slight increase in moisture, but ridge aloft will help maintain a mainly rain- free period. && .AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR should dominate over the coming 24 hours. Any spotty visibility restrictions in ground fog at KLBT and KFLO should be ending by 12z. Extended Outlook...VFR through Wednesday. There is a low probability of MVFR ceilings Wednesday night associated with the next cold front. && .MARINE... Through Tonight... High pressure is centered across western North and South Carolina this morning and should migrate eastward to the coast by noon, then will move offshore this afternoon. Decreasing north to northeast winds this morning should veer southeast to south this afternoon in a combination of weak synoptic return flow plus local seabreeze winds due to 10+ degree marine-to- inland air temperatures differences today. As the high moves farther offshore tonight and a cold front approaches the central Appalachians, a belt of stronger southwest winds will develop along the Carolina coast. Speeds should increase to a solid 15 knots with choppy 3-4 foot seas developing overnight. Wednesday through Saturday... SW winds will increase through Wed around high pressure offshore and approaching cold front. Expect gusts up to 25 kts with some 5 fters present, but overall 2 to 4 ft seas will continue through much of the period. Winds shift around to the N-NE behind front early Thurs as high pressure builds down behind cold front. Winds will become onshore over the weekend around 10 to 15 kts. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM UPDATE...ABW NEAR TERM...TRA SHORT TERM...RGZ LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...TRA MARINE...TRA/RGZ