####018004039#### FXUS64 KTSA 121730 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1130 AM CST Fri Dec 12 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1130 AM CST Fri Dec 12 2025 - Breezy post frontal winds locally raise fire weather concerns this afternoon. - Strong cold front passes late Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. Single digit wind chill values Sunday morning north of I-40. - Precipitation chances remain very low over the next 7 days. && .SHORT TERM... (Through tonight ) Issued at 1130 AM CST Fri Dec 12 2025 Quiet weather is likely tonight following todays cold front. With light northerly flow and a colder airmass, low temperatures tonight will range from the mid-upper 20s across the north to the mid-upper 30s in the south. High clouds will continue to stream over the region with no precip expected. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Friday) Issued at 1130 AM CST Fri Dec 12 2025 Return flow briefly works back into the region Saturday, with low clouds expanding into parts of SE OK/ W-Central AR as moisture is pulled northward. However, by mid-late afternoon, another more potent cold front will be on our doorstep. In the pre-frontal environment, temperatures may warm into the mid-upper 50s across the south, but cloud coverage could complicate this temperature forecast. Otherwise, high temps generally decrease with northern extent, perhaps remaining below 50 degrees near the OK-KS border. Dry conditions persist. Strong north winds and much colder air will follow the front tomorrow, setting the stage for a very cold Sunday morning. With temperatures in the teens or 20s and continued breezy conditions, wind chill values will plummet into the single digits across NE OK and NW AR... perhaps near zero close to the KS/ MO borders. Will need to monitor this closely for potential Cold Weather Advisory issuance, but the current forecast keeps apparent temps just outside criteria. High temperatures on Sunday will not recover much... likely struggling to rise above freezing for parts of NE OK and NW AR. Another cold night is in store Sunday night, though the ridge axis will be moving east with increasing southerly flow and WAA developing overnight. By Monday afternoon, south-southwest flow strengthens, allowing temperatures to recover quite nicely, back into the upper 40s/ lower 50s. This southwesterly flow regime persists through much of next week, with well above average temperatures becoming likely Tuesday through the end of the week. The extended forecast remains dry. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1130 AM CST Fri Dec 12 2025 North to easterly winds remain common for the CWA into Saturday behind a dry cold front that moved through the region Friday morning. Late in the period, winds become more variable ahead of a stronger cold front forecast to reach the CWA just outside of this TAF period. Scattered to broken high clouds also are forecast through the period. There is potential for IFR/MVFR ceilings to lift north of the Red River, reaching KMLC/KFSM Saturday morning. For now will hold off on mentioning due to uncertainty of how far northward this cloud cover can reach ahead of the stronger front. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 30 52 19 32 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 36 56 27 39 / 0 0 0 0 MLC 33 55 23 38 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 26 49 15 30 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 31 54 18 33 / 0 0 0 0 BYV 30 53 16 30 / 0 0 0 0 MKO 32 54 21 35 / 0 0 0 0 MIO 28 48 15 29 / 0 0 0 0 F10 30 56 20 34 / 0 0 0 0 HHW 38 54 30 42 / 0 0 0 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...43 LONG TERM....43 AVIATION...20 ####018003254#### FXUS63 KICT 121733 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 1133 AM CST Fri Dec 12 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cooler temperatures expected today and a reinforcing shot of cold air this weekend with teens for Sat. night/Sun. morning. - Moderating temperatures are expected for much of next week with the dry conditions persisting. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 206 AM CST Fri Dec 12 2025 Currently, broad scale upper-level northwesterly flow is present over the region. In the mid-levels, a short wave trough is visible that is dragging a cold front across the Central Plains early this morning. At the surface, winds have already turned out of the north for most of our central and south-central Kansas counties, with far southern and southeastern Kansas to follow suite shortly. While a cool down is forecast behind this frontal boundary, temperatures will return close to normal for this time of year for today with highs topping out in the 40s areawide. Little moisture is present with this front therefore no precip is expected, though some lower level stratus may be possible across our central Kansas counties through the afternoon. For this weekend, a more potent upper level trough will sweep across the Great Lakes region on Saturday. This feature will send another, reinforcing cold front across the area on Saturday afternoon. Prior to the colder air arriving, temperatures will be able to warm into the 40s areawide. However, behind the front on Saturday night temperatures will tumble into the teens. Then, highs on Sunday will only warm into the upper 20s to lower 30s. As has been the pattern of late, the much colder air will be confined to our east and our colder temperatures will be fleeting. As we move into early next week, stout ridging and northwesterly flow will build back over the region. Temperatures will quickly rebound with highs on Monday near normal to slightly above normal with highs reaching into the upper 40s. Warmer and more mild weather will continue through the end of the week as broad ridging dominates the pattern. Highs in the 50s and 60s with lows in the 30s and 40s are expected as there is quite a bit of agreement across models. A couple of benign perturbations in the pattern are possible through the week leading to slight variations in temperatures and occasional cloud cover. Overall, we are expected to remain dry throughout the forecast period. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1130 AM CST Fri Dec 12 2025 North winds around 10-12 mph will gradually veer to the east and southeast this evening and tonight while remaining light. MVFR cigs continue to linger over parts of central Kansas and these may be slow to erode. After a brief period of VFR, low stratus may return to parts of central KS, possibly impacting KSLN, KRSL and KGBD tonight and into the day on Saturday. Winds will shift to the north in the wake of another cold front on Saturday afternoon. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...AMD AVIATION...MWM ####018005496#### FXUS63 KGRB 121734 AFDGRB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 1134 AM CST Fri Dec 12 2025 Updated aviation portion for 18Z TAF issuance .KEY MESSAGES... - A band of light snow will bring accumulations less than an inch to the area today. The snow may result in locally slick travel. - Bitterly cold this weekend. Daytime highs will struggle to reach zero over much of central WI on Saturday. Confidence is high that wind chills will fall as low as 20 below to 30 below zero Friday night as well as Saturday night. Cold Weather Advisories have been issued. - A rapid warming trend is expected early next week, with temperatures recovering into the 30s by Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 402 AM CST Fri Dec 12 2025 Round of Snow Today... A middle level-short wave will bring a cold front across the region today leading to a round of light snow. Expect snow to arrive into north-central WI about 8-9AM this morning and spread east reaching the lakeshore by early afternoon. While moisture is going to be limited today (PWATs less than 0.25") forcing ahead of the front is expected to be maximized through a deep DGZ promoting SLRs of 15- 20:1. These high SLRs should allow up to an inch of powdery snow to accumulate across north-central WI with a dusting up to a half inch expected across central and east-central WI. Behind the front low- level lapse rates do steepen to 7-8C/km which could aid in a few isolated snow showers through the afternoon withing the CAA regime. Isolated slippery spots will be possible on untreated roads. Dangerous Cold this Weekend... Behind the cold front today thermal fields will crash as bitterly cold arctic air pushes into the region for the weekend. Tonight lows away from Lake Michigan will fall to 5 to 15 degrees below zero. Steady NW winds within the CAA will create wind chills of 20 to 30 degrees below zero across most of the region. With high confidence in these cold wind chills a Cold Weather Advisory has been issued for all but Door County beginning at midnight Saturday. Even if broken status linger tonight and keep temps a few degrees warmer than forecast the strong CAA and breezy NW winds should result in wind chills around Cold Weather Advisory Criteria (-20 in east- central and far northeast WI and -25 in central and north-central WI). Temperatures during the day Saturday are not expected to moderate much with highs forecast to range from 3 degrees below zero in central WI to around 5 degrees in north-east WI. With wind chills not warming much above criteria in central and east-central WI decided to run the Cold Weather Advisory through the entire day in those locations. Saturday night into Sunday morning will again be bitterly cold, however, with the core of the arctic air shifting further south into Iowa areas in far north-central and northeast WI may not get as cold as tonight. For now have the Cold Weather Advisory only covering central and east-central WI through 10AM Sunday morning. Adjustments may need to be made to the headline during this period based of cloud and wind trends. Warming trend likely beginning early next week... Winds veer around to the south Monday as the ridge that has dominated the western CONUS the last two weeks starts to break down and shift east. This will lead to a rapid warm up early in the week. By Tuesday afternoon NBM probs for temps greater than 32 degrees increase to 70-80% across the entire forecast area. Those probs increase to greater than 90% for most areas by Wednesday, which is expected to be the warmest day next week. Global ensemble upper level flow patters suggest a weak short-wave could bring a round of snow to northern WI Monday into Tuesday. Another stronger system looks possible during the middle to back half of next week, however, ensemble clusters show considerable spread with the timing and amplitude the driving trough. While it is still 6/7 days out mean flow patters suggest areas south of HWY 8 could end of on the warm side of this system. && .AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1127 AM CST Fri Dec 12 2025 A band of light snow will move across the region this afternoon. Intermittent light freezing drizzle may mix in with the snow at times. MVFR ceilings and visibilities can be expected within this light wintry band of precipitation. Brief reductions of visibility to LIFR will be possible. Maintained the theme of the previous forecast and framed out the best 3 hour window for the heaviest snow with TEMPO groups at each TAF site. For ground operations, total accumulations of a dusting to a half inch are expected at each terminal. Behind the front, the light snow and freezing drizzle will become more isolated after sundown. Northwest winds are also expected to become gusty behind the front. Sustained winds of 10-15 kts with gusts of 20-25 kts are expected through the weekend. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM CST Saturday for WIZ005-010>013-021-073-074. Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM CST Sunday for WIZ018>020-030-031-035>040-045-048>050. && $$ DISCUSSION.....GK AVIATION.......MPC ####018003919#### FXUS64 KMRX 121734 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 1234 PM EST Fri Dec 12 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1232 PM EST Fri Dec 12 2025 - Light snow accumulations possible mainly in the mountains Saturday night into Sunday. - Bitter cold will surge into the area for Sunday into Monday. - Warming trend begins Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1232 PM EST Fri Dec 12 2025 Tonight into Saturday we will be under the influence of surface high pressure, and high temperatures will be near to slightly above normal for this time of year on Saturday. The brief warmup will quickly be forgotten as a strong cold front surges through our area Saturday night ushering in an arctic air mass for Sunday into Monday. The front will have little moisture to work with, but we will likely see some showers quickly changing over to snow showers and flurries Saturday night as the front moves through, with snow showers and flurries lingering into Sunday especially over the normally favored higher elevation areas as the northwest flow and cold advection continues. Right now, it appears any snow accumulations will be most likely over the higher elevations of the E TN mountains and SW VA as is typical in these scenarios. Current ensemble data suggests a very low chance (around 10-30%) of exceeding one inch of snow even in these favored areas, but think this is underdone at this point and as more hi-res guidance is incorporated these probabilities will likely increase. Even so, any snow accumulations are expected to be light. The bigger story for most folks will be the cold. High temperatures Sunday daytime temperatures will generally be near or below freezing even in valley areas, and the wind will make it feel even colder. Lows Sunday night will be in the single digits and teens, and while it currently appears winds will be on the decline during Sunday night which will suppress what could be even worse wind chills, still wind chill values in the single digits will be common in the valleys with below zero values for the higher mountains at times Sunday night into Monday morning. It is still unclear how much if any of the area will dip into cold weather advisory territory Sunday night into early Monday, but it looks close enough to warrant continued inclusion in the HWO for now. The center of surface high pressure will eventually shift to our east by Tuesday allowing for a gradual warmup to begin, and temperatures will likely be above normal by Thursday. Both Tuesday and Wednesday will be dry, but moisture will begin to increase later in the week. Models are still in poor agreement on exactly when the next chance for precipitation will arrive, but current ensemble data supports having chances for rain back in the forecast by Thursday. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1232 PM EST Fri Dec 12 2025 Biggest concern is how much if any fog/low clouds will develop late tonight. Right now the chance for MVFR (or lower) conditions looks higher at TRI and TYS than at CHA, so will keep CHA VFR and include several hours of MVFR conditions at both TYS and TRI late tonight into early Saturday. Winds will generally be light for the period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 34 59 28 35 / 0 0 20 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 33 55 26 32 / 0 0 20 10 Oak Ridge, TN 32 53 24 30 / 0 0 20 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 31 50 24 29 / 0 0 50 10 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...99 AVIATION...99