####018006310#### FXUS61 KCTP 081745 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 1245 PM EST Mon Dec 8 2025 .SYNOPSIS... * Mostly cloudy and colder today; bitterly cold/frigid tonight * Not as cold Tuesday; quick shot of snow in the NW mtns * Windy with snow/rain mix followed by lake effect snow through midweek; additional snow accumulation possible Friday-Sunday && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A cold northerly wind is sending arctic air southward to the MD line early this morning as 1030mb high pressure builds across the eastern Great Lakes. Despite brief clearing north of I80 after midnight, expect a partly to mostly cloudy and cold day with mid and high clouds streaming northward in association with a 500mb trough tracking eastward from the TN Valley to the VA/NC coast. Sub-freezing max temps (below 32F) today in the upper teens to upper 20s are quite cold by early December standards or 15 to 20 degrees below the historical average. Hires model data shows mid/high clouds peeling off to the northeast by tonight, setting up favorable radiational cooling under the modified and reoriented arctic sfc high channeling down the east-side of the Allegheny Front/Blue Ridge by 12Z Tue. This will translate into a bitter cold to frigid night across CPA with lows ranging from 5 below to 15 above or 15 to 25 degrees below climo. It should be noted that some daily record lows could be within reach particularly if the min temps prints on 12/8 (before midnight) vs. 12/9 or after midnight. (See climate section for 12/8 and 12/9 record mins) && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... High pressure shifts east of the I95 corridor by Tuesday afternoon yielding to lead/low amplitude northern stream mid level shortwave disturbance moving swiftly across the eastern Great Lakes. Blended model data continues to favor a quick shot of light snow ~1" btwn 18Z Tue-06Z Wed with this feature over the NW mtns which could impact the evening commute. Meanwhile upstream, an intense mid-980s mb clipper low will be racing through WI and into Michigan's Mitten btwn 06-12Z Wed. WAA out ahead of this anomalously deep Alberta clipper (one of the strongest for this time of year by historical/climatological MSLP standards) is expected to spread accumulating light to mdt snow across the NW 1/2 of the CWA for the Wednesday morning commute. By Wednesday afternoon, 24-hour snow totals are projected to reach 2-4" in the NW mtns with C-1" fcst elsewhere in areas along and north of I80. As the precip expands eastward into Wednesday afternoon, marginal temperatures/thermal profiles will favor a snow/rain mix or just plain rain from the central ridges eastward into the mid and lower Susquehanna Valley. As the storm tracks through the St. Lawrence River Valley Wednesday night, much colder cyclonic/NWly flow will trigger lake effect snows with minor snow accums over the typical NW PA snow belts and favored upslope areas along the Allegheny Front and Laurel Highlands. The other factor to account for with this powerful clipper tracking to the north of CPA is the wind field which should generate max gusts 30-40+ mph range. 36-48hr snowfall is generally 2-4/3-6" over the NW mtns with odds of a pending winter headline better than 50/50. Lower snow amounts (C-1/1-2") are fcst for locations along and northwest of I99/US220. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Lake effect snow and gusty NW winds continue on Thursday with additional snow accums expected over the NW mtns and Laurel Highlands. The next winter wx system is progged to arrive later Friday into Friday night, although models are showing some variance with the evolution and track. More lake effect snow/snow showers continue over the weekend with temperatures staying below the historical average heading into mid-December. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... High pressure will maintain VFR conds across Central PA today, although a wave of low pressure passing to our south will provide mid and high-level clouds over at least the southeastern half of the area through this afternoon. Skies will clear from northwest to southeast this evening, and winds will decrease to less than 5 knots. Low stratus is expected to expand northward into the Laurel Highlands and southern Alleghenies after 06Z, as low-level flow takes on more of a southerly component. Most guidance suggests that this shouldn't reach much farther northward than JST and AOO, and cigs could dip to borderline MVFR. Tuesday will see any lower clouds across SW/SC PA dissipate, with increasing high and mid-level cloudiness through the late morning and afternoon. Cigs should dip to MVFR by late afternoon/evening across NW PA, where some light snow is also possible, as a clipper system approaches from the Great Lakes. Much of the remainder of the week looks chilly and unsettled, with occasional snow showers (possibly rain south) on Wednesday, and occasional snow showers Thu-Sat as clipper systems periodically impact the region. Outlook... Wed...Restrictions possible with snow north/west and wet snow or rain showers south/east. Wed night-Thu...Snow showers continue, mainly N/W PA. Westerly wind gusts of 15-30 kts (possibly higher in the Laurels) are expected. Fri-Fri night...A round of light snow possible later Fri into Fri night, with a clipper system. Sat...Briefly improving conds expected, before another clipper system approaches Sat night-Sun. && .CLIMATE... Astronomical winter (solstice) begins at 10:03 a.m. on Sunday, December 21st Record lows for 12/8: MDT 12 in 2002 IPT 3 in 1901 AOO 7 in 2005 BFD -2 in 1970 Record lows for 12/9: MDT 7 in 1989 IPT 3 in 2002 AOO -3 in 1989 BFD -12 in 2002 && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl NEAR TERM...Steinbugl SHORT TERM...Steinbugl LONG TERM...Steinbugl/Colbert AVIATION...Evanego CLIMATE...Steinbugl ####018008920#### FXUS62 KGSP 081746 AFDGSP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 1246 PM EST Mon Dec 8 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Dry high pressure will move in from the west through the middle part of the week. A series of two cold fronts will move across the region during the latter half of the week, ultimately bringing much cooler temperatures by the end of the weekend and into early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 1245 PM EST Monday... Key Message 1: Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for Avery County ands elevations above 3,500 feet in Yancey and Mitchell Counties until 1 AM Tuesday. Upper trough and associated surface wave will continue tracking across the GSP forecast area through the early evening hours before pushing east late this evening. This will keep snow chances around across the mountains through the late afternoon/early evening hours. Additional snowfall amounts of 1 to 2.5 inches can be expected for locations in the Winter Weather Advisory. Elevations above 3,500 feet outside the advisory can expect an additional 0.5 to 1 inch of snowfall. Highs across of the mountains will end up ~10-15 degrees below normal thanks to cloud cover sticking around. Key Message 2: Cold rain will linger across the North Carolina mountain valleys, foothills, and Piedmont through late this afternoon with some sleet or snow may mixing in at times. Dry conditions should continue across northeast Georgia and the South Carolina Upstate the rest of today. With temperatures expected to remain above freezing across the North Carolina mountain valleys, foothills, and Piedmont, the cold rain will continue through late this afternoon. Still have the chance to see some sleet and/or wet snow mix in at times across the North Carolina foothills and Piedmont, with snow possibly blowing down into the mountain valleys at times. However, only light (if any) accumulation is expected. Highs east of the mountains will also end up ~10-15 degrees below normal thanks to thick cloud cover. Key Message 3: Drier conditions return this evening into tonight but slippery roads will be a concern through Tuesday morning for areas that received accumulating snowfall. Surface high pressure gradually builds in from the north tonight bringing drier and colder conditions. With temps expected to fall (or remain) below freezing, slippery road conditions will be a concern for the evening and morning commutes across areas that received accumulating snowfall. An SPS may need be issued later this afternoon to account for possible hazardous road conditions this evening into early Monday morning. Cloud cover will gradually thin out through the overnight hours allowing temps to drop below freezing area-wide tonight. Lows will end up ~5-10 degrees below normal. Key Message 4: Dry and cool conditions expected on Tuesday with gradually diminishing cloud cover. Temperatures will rise above freezing by mid to late morning Tuesday for most locations allowing the concern for slippery roads to diminish. Surface high pressure will remain over the GSP forecast area keeping dry and cool conditions around for Tuesday. Although cloud cover will gradually thin out throughout the day (we will finally get to see sunshine), highs will remain ~10-15 degrees below normal area-wide. Highs will only reach into the upper 30s to upper 40s across the mountain valleys and east of the mountains. Highs across the higher elevations will range from the lower 30s to lower 40s. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Key Messages: 1) Winds pick up on Wednesday, especially over the mountains. 2) Mostly dry and near normal temps. As of 1210 PM EST Monday: The short term looks mostly quiet with the exception of minimal precipitation chances and wind. A more typical winter pattern continues with a strong high off the west coast, creating NW flow aloft across the the eastern CONUS. On Wednesday, a strong area of low pressure churns over Canada as a second, weaker low spins off toward the south. Current guidance brings this low further south, increasing the chances for windy conditions. This tighter pressure gradient looks to go right over the CWA. A speed max embedded in the general flow, looks to maximize Wednesday into Wednesday night before exiting the area. At this time, guidance has a 40-50% chance of wind gusts greater than 45 mph at the higher elevations of the mountains. This would be right about Wind Advisory Criteria, so there is a possibility one would be needed. Confidence is increasing on wind gusts of 35 mph or greater as the chances also tick up into the 50-60% range across the NC mountains. Will continue to monitor. As for precipitation, the better news is guidance is coming in much drier as the persistent trough starts to recede northward, keeping the stints of advancing DPVA further north. So, the potential for a cold front is almost completely gone, meaning winter weather chances have also decreased. There is a slight chance (15-30%) that a brief burst of snow along the TN/NC border is possible Wednesday night, but confidence is low. IF anything falls, there is a 10-15% chance of snow amounts greater than 0.01 inch. Additionally, this means the colder temps that were in previous guidance has now pushed further into the next period. Temperatures Wednesday and Thursday look to be near normal. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... 1) Snow chances over the NC mountains Thursday night into Friday are decreasing . 2) A potential colder period toward the end of the weekend with temperatures about 15 degrees below normal. As of 1220 PM EST Monday: By Friday, the NW flow aloft remains locked in for the extended. However, guidance has changed and brings the better flow northward, keeping the CWA out of the main show. At the surface, the colder air looks to also be much slower breaking out of Canada and spilling into the U.S. This also keeps the temperatures near normal through at least Saturday, before dipping. As for any precipitation chances, this has also drastically changed. The highest PoPs are for the TN/NC border on Thursday and Friday nights and those are capped at slight (15-30%). If temperatures are cold enough and there is any surface moisture lingering, there could be a brief burst of snow at the highest elevations. Some of this may linger into Friday but confidence continues to increase that there won't be any impactful winter weather. Current probabilities for snow amounts greater than 0.01 inch are less than 20%, and this is mainly at the highest peaks. So, all in all, the winter weather chances are plummeting and a quieter period is starting to emerge. This still needs to be evaluated as any shift of the main flow aloft could be the difference between quiet weather and increasing precipitation chances. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... At KCLT and elsewhere: Restrictions are ranging from VFR to IFR across the western Carolinas as of 18Z. Restrictions are expected to stick around through much of the TAF period, with very little improvement through daybreak Tuesday. Restrictions will start to lift after sunrise on Tuesday with VFR returning across all terminals by the late morning or early afternoon hours. Patchy fog should develop around daybreak Tuesday before lifting by mid- morning. The SC terminals will see dry conditions continue through the 18Z TAF period, while precip chances linger across the NC terminals through late this afternoon. Some -SN could blow down the valley at KAVL but confidence is too low to mention at the terminal so went with -RA for now. KHKY has the best potential to see a -RASN mix this afternoon so have this accounted for at the terminal. -RA is expected at KCLT this afternoon. Wind direction will be NE east of the mountains through early Tuesday morning before winds gradually turn S/SSW mid-morning to early afternoon Tuesday. Winds at KAVL will be N'ly through tonight, toggling S'ly around daybreak Tuesday. Outlook: Dry high pressure lingers through Wednesday. NW flow precip may develop along the NC/TN border Wednesday night and again Thursday night but dry conditions should linger elsewhere. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. NC...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Tuesday for NCZ033-049- 050. SC...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DEO NEAR TERM...AR SHORT TERM...CP LONG TERM...CP AVIATION...AR ####018006945#### FXUS66 KPDT 081746 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 946 AM PST Mon Dec 8 2025 .UPDATED AVIATION. .AVIATION...18Z TAFs...Periods of disturb weather continue through the region, with rain and light showers effecting most sites (with Central OR dodging most of the precipitation action). VFR conditions are expected to persist with the abundant mixing with this system, but a brief MVFR/IFR conditions are possible with some of the heavier bands of rain. Given that, a 5-15% chance of temporary sub-VFR conditions are possible at all sites. Not expecting to last long enough to justify a PROB30 or a preliminary line. The biggest weather concern will be mostly the wind, with every site expecting at least 20 to 30+ mph gusts at some point in the period. Currently, PSC, ALW, PDT, and DLS are seeing light to moderate winds, but projections are that they will get stronger going through the later afternoon to evening hours today. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 307 AM PST Mon Dec 8 2025/ SYNOPSIS... A potent atmospheric river will bring heavy mountain showers and gusty winds to the forecast area over the next couple of days, with the period beginning early this evening and lasting into Tuesday morning looking to be the most impactful in terms of winds and rain. Another, albeit weaker round will arrive during the overnight period Tuesday into Wednesday, before precip chances gradually abate heading into the end of the work week as high pressure slides in over the region. Wind Advisories are out for much of the lowlands of the forecast area starting late this afternoon, along with a Flood Watch due to the potential of localized flooding along the WA Cascade east slopes through the week. DISCUSSION... Global models remain in agreement that the PacNW will find itself locked into a persistent, strong WNW flow pattern aloft as a result of blocked high pressure centered off the California coast. This pattern will channel a potent atmospheric river right into our region, with the WA Cascades in particular bearing the brunt of this oncoming moisture. The latest QPF forecast from WPC suggests that portions of the central WA Cascade crests may see upwards to 10 inches of liquid precip by the end of the week. While this pattern more or less spares the mountain passes of any significant snow threat, as well as the lowlands of heavy precip as 1) the main band of IVT falls along the northern periphery of our CWA, save for Tuesday when it briefly sags down to the Columbia Basin, and 2) the mid-level winds remain westerly enough to support persistent rain shadowing across the Columbia Basin and central Oregon, all that rain expected to fall across the mountains will run down into the valleys, spurring a flooding threat across primarily the east slopes of the WA Cascades. Multiple river gauges along the Klickitat, Naches, and Yakima Rivers are forecasted to go into minor flood stage sometime around the midweek, with Wednesday into Thursday being the most likely period. Even some gauges along the foothills of the northern Blues may inch up toward minor flood stage as the Blues get hammered with rain around the same time. The RFC's forecast has wobbled over the past few days, as uncertainty in QPF amounts stems primarily from the positioning of the strongest IVT axis over the PacNW, but both the GFS and ECMWF are in good agreement in depicting IVTs in the 600-800 kg/m/s range slamming the WA Cascades. The one saving grace from this otherwise strong AR event is that it's still relatively early in the winter, so mountain snow packs are on the lower end (SWE below 50% across all basins), precluding any rain on snow excessive runoff threat. Still, given the threat, opted to issue a Flood Watch for our zones at and along the WA Cascades, in order to better advertise the flooding threat over the Hydrologic Outlook that had been in place over the last couple of days. With the strong upper-level winds accompanying this AR, expect to see surface winds ramping up later today, especially during the late afternoon / early evening hours. Wind Advisories are currently in effect for our Columbia Basin zones, as well as the foothills of the Blue Mountains, Columbia River Gorge, and North Central Oregon starting at 1 PM at lasting until sunrise Tuesday. Didn't see too much across guidance to suggest the need to deviate from ongoing messaging, so the forecast continues to call for wind gusts in the 35-50 mph range across the advised areas, with the ridgetops along the Simcoe Highlands seeing the biggest threat for gusts to exceed 60 mph. HREF suggests probabilities are too low (>5%) to warrant an upgrade to a High Wind Warning, and will opt to keep the Advisory in place for the Simcoe Highlands given that the populated areas within the zone are not anticipated to receive Warning-level winds. Winds abate during the day Tuesday, before picking back up again in the late evening hours, but as of now, the forecasted wind gusts look to remain below Advisory thresholds, save for along exposed ridgetops. The precip threat finally starts to relent by Thursday as the atmospheric river pattern shifts to our north and east in favor of oncoming high pressure. This high pressure ridge pattern will be 'dirty' enough in the sense that models continue to suggest low-end PoPs across the WA Cascades, but the bulk of the rain threat is expected to end by early Thursday at the latest. Still, expect elevated river levels to persist even into the weekend, especially if the weather pattern continues to support even light shower activity over the Cascades. 74 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... PDT 60 47 56 47 / 70 70 90 90 ALW 59 49 55 47 / 90 80 90 100 PSC 60 49 56 45 / 60 40 80 80 YKM 54 41 51 40 / 80 80 80 90 HRI 62 49 58 47 / 60 50 90 90 ELN 49 37 45 37 / 90 90 70 90 RDM 57 44 58 46 / 50 50 70 50 LGD 49 44 51 45 / 90 90 100 100 GCD 52 44 52 46 / 50 50 90 70 DLS 60 51 57 50 / 100 90 100 100 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 AM PST Tuesday for ORZ041-510. Wind Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 AM PST Tuesday for ORZ044-507-508. WA...Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 AM PST Tuesday for WAZ024-521. Flood Watch through Friday morning for WAZ026-027-521>523. Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM PST Tuesday for WAZ027>029. && $$ SHORT TERM...74 LONG TERM....74 AVIATION...95 ####018005713#### FXUS63 KLMK 081747 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 1247 PM EST Mon Dec 8 2025 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... * Winter Weather Advisory has been expanded slightly westward and extended until 1 PM EST. * Wednesday, a cold front brings limited rain chances north of the parkways. * Cooler air arrives for the weekend. Highs in the teens and lows in the single digits are possible for some. && .UPDATE... Issued at 949 AM EST Mon Dec 8 2025 At this hour, water vapor imagery and 14Z SPC mesoanalysis shows the mid-level trough axis moving across the lower Ohio Valley. A concentrated area of light to moderate snow showers is now pushing to the east of Interstate 65, with this area of snow showers co- located with deeper saturation. RAP soundings show some saturation up into the DGZ, allowing for more efficient, heavier snowfall rates. So far, we've seen multiple reports of snowfall amounts between 0.5 and 1.5", with the heaviest amounts generally along the I-64 corridor. Short-fuse expansions to the winter weather advisory were made earlier this morning, with almost all of our KY Bluegrass counties now included through 18Z. A special weather statement also remains in effect through 17Z for minor impacts from snow for areas around the advisory. From now through early this afternoon, snow should end from west to east as we lose deeper saturation and get large-scale mid-level subsidence in the wake of the trough axis. With northerly flow and low stratus remaining over the area later today, temperatures should only marginally warm this afternoon, with forecast highs in the low- to-mid 30s remaining on target at this time. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 419 AM EST Mon Dec 8 2025 As a shortwave in the upper trough begins to push east into the Lower Ohio Valley, we are beginning to see an increase in returns on radar as saturation is starting to reach the DGZ. Temperatures have continued to fall from near 40 at 2z to just above freezing along Interstate 64. The cooling trend will continue as precipitation chances increase in the coming hours. Snow will develop over southern Indiana and over most of central Kentucky northeast of Bowling Green. Accumulations are expected to range from a dusting to slightly over an inch with the highest amounts expected in the Bluegrass. Early this afternoon, precipitation will push east out of the CWA. Skies will try to clear from the northwest to southeast throughout the day, but continued northerly winds will limit high temperatures to the 30s. Tonight, surface high pressure, centered over Michigan and western New York and extending southwest to eastern Texas, will be over southern Indiana and central Kentucky. This will calm winds under mostly clear skies, leading to radiative cooling. Temperatures fall into the upper teens to mid to upper 20s with the coolest temperatures over the Bluegrass. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 419 AM EST Mon Dec 8 2025 Tuesday, with the surface high east of Kentucky and a surface low over the western Great Lakes, the pressure gradient over the Lower Ohio Valley will drive southwest wind gusts to around 25 mph. Even with some early cloud cover, high temperatures will rocket to the low 40s to near 50. Wednesday, northwest flow will carry a low pressure system near the Indiana/Michigan border. This will drag the systems cold front through the CWA during the day, and with strong WAA in place ahead of the front, highs are expected to be in the mid 40s to mid 50s, leaving precipitation all rain. Behind the front, Wednesday night, CAA drops lows back below freezing with temperatures in the mid to upper 20s. Thursday and Friday continue to show a decent amount of uncertainty in model guidance. Northwest flow remains in place, funneling additional light precipitation chances towards southern Indiana and central Kentucky, and with temperatures during the day being slightly above freezing and slightly below at night, there could be some mixed p-types. The better signal is will cooler temperatures heading into the weekend. This weekend, upper ridging continues to amplify over the West Coast, keeping northwest flow through the CWA. Arriving Canadian air is expected to drop high temperatures into the upper teens and 20s with lows in the single digits to teens for some. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1246 PM EST Mon Dec 8 2025 Light snow is clearing LEX and RGA at this hour, with visibilities expected to improve shortly. For the rest of this afternoon, the main impact to flight categories will be due to low stratus. While gradual clearing/scattering of stratus is expected this evening, exactly how fast this happens is only medium confidence. Winds will remain out of the N/NE this afternoon, with winds going light and variable this evening. VFR conditions are expected to return by Tuesday morning, with winds picking up out of the south by mid-to- late morning. 20-25 kt wind gusts are likely Tuesday afternoon, with scattered mid-level clouds expected through the day. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for KYZ035>037-039>043-047>049-056-057. IN...None. && $$ UPDATE...CSG SHORT TERM...KDW LONG TERM...KDW AVIATION...CSG ####018003374#### FXUS64 KLZK 081747 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 1147 AM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 112 AM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 - Cool conditions for Monday before temperatures warmup through mid-week. - A major cooldown is expected this weekend with much below normal temperatures. - Little to no precipitation expected over the next 7 days. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 112 AM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 In the wake of yesterday's cold front, sfc ridging will briefly build in from the NW today which will provide cool temperatures to the area. Sfc ridging will quickly shift east for Tuesday and low level winds will turn out of the SW. This will provide warming temperatures through midweek across the state. This warmup will come to an end by late week as a strong mid-level cyclone rotates its way south toward the Great Lakes. A corresponding H500 trough is expected to move from the Upper MS Valley toward the Mid-Atlantic Wednesday into Thursday. At the sfc, a cold front will move across the state, providing slightly cooler temperatures. From Friday into Saturday another mid-level trough will progress from the Northern Plains toward the Ohio Valley which will provide NW flow across much of the country. At the sfc, another cold front will move across the state with a frigid air mass in its wake. While the focus of the cold air will remain northeast of the state, much colder temperatures can be expected across the state this upcoming weekend. Throughout the upcoming weekend, there remains very little chance for any kind of precipitation. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1139 AM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 Latest satellite imagery shows low stratus deck continuing to erode over parts of southern Arkansas. IFR/MVFR ceilings will lift through the afternoon hours as the stratus deck continues to erode leading to VFR CIG at all terminals this afternoon. Some ensemble guidance does build a stratus deck back into parts of northwest & western Arkansas late tonight, but confidence is too low to include at this time. Light and variable winds will veer to the south as high pressure over eastern Oklahoma pushes into the state later this afternoon into the evening hours. Winds will veer to the southwest by late Tuesday morning into the afternoon with gusts of 15-20 kts possible. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 31 56 43 59 / 0 0 0 0 Camden AR 29 56 41 61 / 0 0 0 0 Harrison AR 31 58 44 53 / 0 0 0 0 Hot Springs AR 31 56 42 60 / 0 0 0 0 Little Rock AR 31 56 43 59 / 0 0 0 0 Monticello AR 32 56 43 61 / 0 0 0 0 Mount Ida AR 32 58 43 61 / 0 0 0 0 Mountain Home AR 30 59 43 54 / 0 0 0 0 Newport AR 30 53 43 59 / 0 0 0 0 Pine Bluff AR 30 56 42 60 / 0 0 0 0 Russellville AR 31 59 40 60 / 0 0 0 0 Searcy AR 28 55 39 59 / 0 0 0 0 Stuttgart AR 31 54 42 59 / 0 0 0 0 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...67 AVIATION...76 ####018003565#### FXUS65 KPIH 081749 AFDPIH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pocatello ID 1049 AM MST Mon Dec 8 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Well above normal temperatures this week. - Moderate to heavy snow for high elevations in the mountains and highlands tonight through Wednesday. - Windy conditions at times this week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 100 AM MST Mon Dec 8 2025 Today is mainly quiet as an AR event gets ready to move into our area this week. Any precipitation will largely be confined to the high country and mostly light. Wind gusts today generally 20 to 25 mph. High temps today will range from the 30s for the mountains and highlands with 40s to near 50 from the Snake Plain into the Magic Valley. Winds will increase tonight as the AR begins to roll into our region. We will see gusts in the 20 to 35 mph range by Tuesday morning. This will keep temps up overnight with lows remaining above freezing across most of the Snake Plain and Magic Valley but still in the 20s to low 30s for the mountains and highlands. Snow levels will climb to near or above 7000 feet by Tuesday morning. Heavy snow is likely across western facing slopes around the Sawtooths and the higher terrain around Island Park and into the Tetons. In these areas several inches of snow is likely tonight. QPF is limited to the central mountains and upper Snake highlands tonight. Midslopes and lower elevations will probably see a tenth or less but those western facing upper slopes will most likely see 0.25 to 0.50 inches tonight. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 146 PM MST Sun Dec 7 2025 Main impact in the long term is the atmospheric river in place Tuesday through Wednesday then easing off on Thursday. Expect at least a 50 percent chance of an inch of liquid precipitation over the Sawtooths and Sun Valley region into the central mountains. Snow levels rising to above 7 thousand feet Tuesday and above 8 thousand feet Wednesday so not expecting significant travel impacts other than at pass level for the most part both days. High temperatures both days mainly in the 40s mountains to lower to mid 50s valleys significantly above seasonal normal. Lows Tuesday night 30s mountains and 40s valleys and lows Wednesday night again in the 30s and 40s. Expect very strong winds both Tuesday and Wednesday especially in the Snake River Plain with 20 to 30 mph sustained winds and gusts over 35 mph expected both days. Not expecting significant rain in lower elevations. Will see mainly dry conditions Friday through next Sunday with warm conditions continuing through next weekend with high temperatures remaining in the 40s and 50s so will continue to see the stretch of extremely warm conditions continue. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1025 AM MST Mon Dec 8 2025 Main impact will be at DIJ where high chances of rain overnight along with lower MVFR to IFR ceilings are likely. Elsewhere expect wind impacts at PIH, IDA and BYI with sustained 15 to 25 knot speeds through Tuesday morning with gusts 25 to 35 knots expected. Just have vicinity showers at SUN and kept ceilings VFR but under 50 percent chance of showers and MVFR ceilings overnight and Tuesday as well. && .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...13 LONG TERM...GK AVIATION...GK ####018003952#### FXUS64 KMRX 081749 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 1249 PM EST Mon Dec 8 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1247 PM EST Mon Dec 8 2025 - Light precipitation continues across northeast Tennessee and southwest Virginia. Additional minor accumulations of snowfall will be possible into the early evening hours in the higher elevations. - Cold morning temperatures expected over the upcoming weekend with sub-freezing temperatures likely area-wide and wind chills in the teens for parts of northeast TN and southwest VA. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1247 PM EST Mon Dec 8 2025 Currently light precipitation is still ongoing across northeast Tennessee and southwest Virginia. The majority of this precipitation is coming down as very cold rain, but a few web cameras and surface observations are showing that temperatures are cold enough that light flurries are mixed in with the rain. Not expecting very much more snow for the rest of today, but some of the peaks of the East Tennessee mountains could pick up almost another inch or so before this shortwave finally exits the region heading into tonight. Will maintain the Winter Weather Advisory mainly due to some poor driving conditions as the locations where it is snowing is also showing low visibilities and likely slick spots on the roads. Heading into tomorrow we should be a bit warmer with some breaks in the clouds expected under generally zonal flow allowing the sun to shine down at times. We'll climb above the 50 degree mark for most places on Wednesday as surface winds turn more southerly in addition to the sun still making it's way through breaks in the clouds. Next weather system is expected to move in towards the end of the work week as a low spins through the Great Lakes Region and drags along a cold front. The air coming in from this system is more of a continental air mass and the moisture is therefore fairly limited. So the best chances to see precipitation will likely be in the higher terrain where cold temperatures combine with orographic lift to squeeze out any water the atmosphere is carrying. For the majority of the eastern Tennessee Valley the biggest impacts will be the chilly temperatures behind the front as we head into the weekend. Probabilistic and deterministic guidance has started to trend slightly "warmer" with this system as the coldest air might stay further to our north. It will still be pretty chilly in the mornings this weekend, but we may be looking at widespread 20's instead of widespread teens for overnight lows. With the much drier air associated with this system we'll likely get a longer period of sunshine to try and take the edge off the morning frost. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1247 PM EST Mon Dec 8 2025 MVFR to low VFR ceilings expected to linger in the region for the rest of the day and into the overnight hours. Clouds will keep dense fog away, but ceilings are likely to not lift until after daybreak on Tuesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 28 51 36 56 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 27 47 36 54 / 0 0 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 26 46 36 53 / 0 0 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 24 42 29 49 / 10 0 0 20 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for Blount Smoky Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Johnson-Sevier Smoky Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Unicoi. VA...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for Russell- Washington VA-Wise. && $$ DISCUSSION...99 AVIATION...99 ####018007004#### FXUS65 KTFX 081749 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 1049 AM MST Mon Dec 8 2025 Aviation Section Updated. .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong winds develop later today and then continue into Tuesday. - Mild temperatures expected at lower elevations the next few days. - Daily mountain snowfall will continue, but snow levels will be rather high early this week. - Still looking to get rather cold for a few days late this week, but warms back up over the weekend. && .UPDATE... /Issued 809 AM MST Mon Dec 8 2025/ Satellite imagery this morning shows an extensive Chinook Arch developing across the area on the nose of fairly extensive upper level jet and Pacific moisture plume moving into the Northern Rockies. Main weather impact today will be the increasing winds with strongest winds still expected to become more widespread tonight through early Tuesday. Snow develops along the continental divide through this afternoon with snow levels currently around 4500 ft, expected to rise to around 6500 ft by this evening as milder flow from the Pacific continues to overspread the area. Temperatures this morning are already in the upper 30s to around 40 across most of the plains/valleys with afternoon temps on track to reach the upper 40s to around 50 at many lower elevation locations, with warmest temps in areas adjacent to the east slopes of the Rockies and just north of the Little Belts. Hoenisch && .DISCUSSION... /Issued 809 AM MST Mon Dec 8 2025/ - Meteorological Overview: A strong westerly flow aloft will reside over the CWA through early Tuesday. This will result in periods of strong winds at the surface later today and into Tuesday. A few isolated strong wind gusts occurred overnight, but I expect the stronger wind gusts to start to become more widespread this afternoon and evening. The brisk westerly flow is also allowing for mild temperatures to move into the CWA. Just a few locations along the Milk River in Blaine County and a few locations along the Missouri River breaks area in Fergus County have not warmed up yet. Overall, I went with near NBM temperatures, but I did raise them in a few locations a few degrees. Note, the GFS model is even warmer, especially on Wed. A concern for Tue is the GFS model as the cold air moving back down from Canada for a few hours as the area of low pressure that causes all the wind moves off to our east. The NAM model is not as aggressive with the cold air. However, the GFS solution could have some more impacts if it pans out, such as colder air moving back in, and some convective snow showers along the frontal boundary. Otherwise, warmer air returns for Wednesday, before most models agree that the cold air makes a return Wed night into Thu. Expect a sharp drop in temperatures behind this cold front. Precip -> Today through Wed -> Snow levels will be rather high through this period, unless the GFS pans out for Tue afternoon, lowering snow levels for a few hours. This will result in rain falling for elevations generally below 5500 feet most days. (The freezing level at Midnight was 7000 feet.) Thus no winter weather advisories will be issued at this time for early this week. (That could change if the GFS pans out for Tue though.) Thursday through Friday...Overall the forecast models agree it will turn colder/snowy for a few days. The GFS model continues to be the most aggressive with the snowfall. Overall the NBM is a good solution at this time, with snowfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches at lower elevations over North Central MT and well over a foot in the mountains. In Southwest MT, the snowfall will not be as much, as the forecast models generally stall the cold front out along a line from just south of Helena to just north of Bozeman. Temperatures near the US/Canadian border will be quite cold on Friday and cold weather advisory criteria might be met. Saturday through Monday...expect a gradual warming trend, with some light precipitation, mostly over the mountains of the Rocky Mountain Front. - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios: There is an 80 percent chance of high winds in the high wind warning area from later today into Tuesday. There is a 40 percent of 4 inches or more of snowfall at lower elevations on Thursday. Thus winter statements are likely later this week. There is a high probability that cold weather statements will be needed later this week, especially for areas along/north of Highway 2. Brusda && .AVIATION... 08/18Z TAF Period VFR conditions will prevail across the KBZN, KEKS, and KHLN terminals during this TAF Period. During the majority of this TAF Period it will be very windy at all but the KHLN and KBZN terminals. There will be several hours of wind gusts in excess of 50 kts at the KGTF, KEKS, and KCTB terminals after 09/06Z. There will be instances of low-level wind shear and mountain wave turbulence across North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana during the duration of this TAF Period. After 09/12Z across all terminals there is greater than a 30% chance for rain and/or a rain/snow mix. At the KHVR and KLWT terminals the rain and/or rain/snow mix will lower visibility to at least MVFR-levels with a 10% chance for visibility to lower to IFR-levels or lower. During the majority of this TAF Period there will be periods of mountain obscuration across North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. -IG && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 51 39 50 33 / 10 30 50 60 CTB 46 32 42 25 / 10 30 40 40 HLN 49 39 50 34 / 20 50 70 80 BZN 46 36 51 31 / 10 20 60 80 WYS 33 25 38 27 / 30 70 90 90 DLN 44 37 49 34 / 10 30 40 70 HVR 42 31 45 21 / 10 30 70 30 LWT 43 32 46 25 / 10 20 60 50 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... High Wind Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 10 AM MST Tuesday for Cascade County below 5000ft-East Glacier Park Region-Eastern Glacier, Western Toole, and Central Pondera-Eastern Pondera and Eastern Teton-Eastern Toole and Liberty-Gates of the Mountains- Madison River Valley-Northern High Plains-Southern High Plains- Southern Rocky Mountain Front-Upper Blackfoot and MacDonald Pass. High Wind Warning from 6 PM this evening to 3 PM MST Tuesday for Bears Paw Mountains and Southern Blaine-Big Belt, Bridger and Castle Mountains-Fergus County below 4500ft-Hill County-Little Belt and Highwood Mountains-Meagher County Valleys-Northern Blaine County-Snowy and Judith Mountains-Western and Central Chouteau County. High Wind Warning until 3 PM MST Tuesday for Judith Basin County and Judith Gap. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls