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FXUS65 KFGZ 142208

AFDFGZ



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ

308 PM MST Sun Jun 14 2026



.SYNOPSIS...Showers and thunderstorms will diminish this evening 

and will redevelop Monday, although activity will shift southward. 

Warmer weather returns for much of next week, with most activity 

decreasing or ending after Monday. Slight chances do remain over 

higher terrain southeast of Flagstaff.



&&



.DISCUSSION...Moisture and a favorable instability/temperature 

profile continues to generate showers and thunderstorms today. The 

sunny start to the morning allowed for rapid and strong convective 

development earlier and a few storms became near-severe. There have 

been some hydrological issues as cells back-build into the untapped 

southwest flow. Flooding has been reported around Dewey and a Flash 

Flood at Supai.



We expect things to diminish quickly again this evening, with a 

quiet night after sunset for most places.



Drier air aloft starts working in from the west and northwest as 

early as Monday, but this moisture pool and instability will still 

linger. Streamlines and drying aloft indicate that most activity 

Monday will be south of I-40. The Prescott-Payson corridor could 

still be fairly active.



The remainder of the week features high pressure, warming 

temperatures and a drying trend. However, this early Monsoon 

moisture pool will not completely fade away. This means that at 

least isolated activity will remain possible over far southeastern 

portions of our CWA, but most areas will be dry.



Moisture may return as southerly flow develops next weekend, but

too early to tell.



&&



.AVIATION...Sunday 14/18Z through Monday 15/18Z...Mainly VFR 

conditions. SCT -SHRA/-TSRA between 18Z-03Z with brief MVFR and 

erratic winds gusting 30-40 kts. Daytime winds SW-W 10-15kts,

light and variable or terrain driven overnight.



OUTLOOK...Monday 15/18Z through Wednesday 17/18Z...Mainly VFR 

conditions. ISO-SCT -SHRA/-TSRA after 18Z on Monday, mainly south

of a KGCN-KRQE line with brief MVFR and erratic winds 30-40 kts. 

ISO -SHRA/-TSRA on Tuesday, mainly south of a KPAN-KSJN line. 

Daytime winds SW-W winds 10-15 kts on Monday, becoming W-NW 10-20

kts on Tuesday.



&&



.FIRE WEATHER...Monday and Tuesday...Expect isolated showers 

and storms on Monday along the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains, 

with isolated showers and storms being confined to the White 

Mountains on Tuesday. Any storms that develop are capable of 

producing wetting rains and gusty, erratic winds that may reach 30 

to 40 mph. Winds SW-W at 10-15 mph Monday, W-NW 10-20 mph on Tuesday.



Wednesday through Friday...Isolated showers and thunderstorms 

possible in the White Mountains and eastern Mogollon Rim region each 

afternoon. Otherwise, expect warmer and mostly dry conditions to 

return. Winds SW-W 10-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph each day.



&&



.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.



&&



$$



PUBLIC...Peterson

AVIATION...Bernhart

FIRE WEATHER...Bernhart



For Northern Arizona weather information visit

weather.gov/flagstaff