####018010609#### FXUS61 KAKQ 070801 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 301 AM EST Sun Dec 7 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Widespread freezing fog across the region through mid morning. Primarily dry conditions are expected today. Low pressure offshore and a passing disturbance aloft brings the chance for snow to mainly the southwestern half of the area on Monday. Mainly dry for Tuesday through Thursday, with shower chances increasing with the next cold front late in the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 300 AM EST Sunday... Key Messages: - Freezing Fog Advisory in effect for most of the area until 9AM. High pressure is centered near the region early this morning. Satellite imagery and surface observations show widespread fog and low stratus over nearly the entire CWA. Temperatures are below freezing for all but the far SE corner (NE NC and coastal SE VA). Freezing Fog Advisory is in effect until 9AM with a Dense Fog Advisory until 9AM for the remainder of the area. Expect visibilities to improve through the morning but low stratus may be tough to dislodge once again today. Will be optimistic and show some clearing in the afternoon. Temps will depend heavily on cloud cover so have gone below the blended guidance with highs in the low 40s NW to the upper 40s SE. High pressure moves offshore late, allowing winds to become light out of the S. A dry cold front crosses the area tonight with increasing northerly winds moving into the region after midnight. Low temps dip into the upper 20s to low 30s for most spots with mid and upper 30s SE. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM EST Sunday... Key Messages: - Potential is increasing for an impactful snow event across mainly the SW half of the area on Monday. - Dry and cold Tuesday. Low pressure deepens off the Carolina coast early Monday. Aloft, a short wave trough traverses the local area Monday morning into the afternoon which will provide enough lift for precip across the southern half to two thirds of the area. 00z guidance continues to trend wetter vs previous runs with forecast QPF now >0.1" for areas along and south of the US-460 corridor with 0.15-0.25" near and south of the VA/NC border. These values may still be on the conservative side with 00z deterministic GFS/ECMWF generally showing up to 0.2" of QPF as far north as US-460 and into the Norfolk Metro with higher values to the south. High pressure to the north will supply a good feed of cold/dry air into the region, so have gone below the blended guidance and show temps holding roughly steady in the morning and then falling through the afternoon. Models are in decent agreement showing precip spreading east from the Piedmont in the morning and continuing through the afternoon across the southern half of the area. With the increasing QPF, 00z ensemble guidance continues to trend upward with respect to snow probabilities with both the GEFS and ENS/AIFS ENS showing 60-80% chances for snow >1" over the southwest CWA. The GEPS is even a bit higher with 80-100% probs for >1". Probs for >3" are lower but these are trending upward with each iteration as well. Still not convinced that this event will rise to the level of Winter Storm Watch/Warning (4+" in 12 hours) but given the trends, cannot rule out warning-level accumulations somewhere in the SW CWA either. Very cold temps aloft also argue for snow to liquid ratios to be higher than 10:1, especially in the afternoon as cold advection strengthens. Forecast soundings show saturation or supersaturation with respect to ice in the DGZ so expect most of the precip to fall as snow or perhaps a brief rain/snow mix at the onset. The far SE portion of the area remains problematic with colder air taking longer to arrive. If moisture can linger over these areas into the late afternoon or after sunset, accumulating snowfall is possible. For now, will show the highest snow accumulations generally from Farmville eastward along US-460 to I-95 and points south. Very cold air moves into the region Monday night with low temps in the mid teens west of I-95 with upper teens to the low/mid 20s to the east. Continued cold Tuesday with some areas likely not warming out of the 30s depending on snow cover. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 300 AM EST Sunday... - Milder Wednesday and Thursday. - Another front crosses the region late in the week with colder temps and precip potential. Medium range models and ensembles are in decent agreement that midweek should be milder as a deep upper trough amplifies across central Canada, with low pressure tracking through the Great Lakes. This allows for an increasing SW low level flow Wed, with highs into the 50s for most. Remaining relatively mild Wed night and Thursday, with increasing rain chances Thursday night/Friday as the next system impacts the region. Precip potentially changes over to a rain/snow mix before ending Friday night. Saturday looks dry and cold as high pressure builds in from the NW. && .AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 125 AM EST Sunday... Widespread LIFR/VLIFR conditions in place over much of the region early this morning. Freezing Fog Advisory includes the RIC, SBY, and PHF terminals until 14z. 1/4SM VSBY (or lower in a few spots). Satellite shows LIFR conditions spreading SE and will likely impact ORF over the next hour or so. Temperatures across the SE terminals are still above freezing so not expecting widespread FZFG at ORF. ECG may escape the fog but CIGs fall to IFR prior to sunrise. Light and variable winds overnight continue through the end of the period. Outlook: Primarily VFR conditions return by Sunday night. Another system Monday morning may bring degraded flight conditions, especially to the S terminals, behind a strong cold front. && .MARINE... As of 220 AM EST Sunday... - Marine Dense Fog Advisory in effect this morning. Otherwise, benign marine conditions through this evening. - Another round of SCAs expected early Monday through Tuesday morning, as a strong cold front moves across the local waters. A period of gale force gusts are possible on Monday, with the best chance over the coastal zones and into the Mouth of the Chesapeake Bay. - Another system may bring degraded marine conditions to the area Wednesday through the end of the week. Weak high pressure continues to build over the local waters from the west this morning. Obs and buoy reports as of this writing reveal W-NW winds ~5 kt in the rivers and bay, 5-10 kt just offshore. Waves of around 1 ft in the bay, rivers and sound, with seas 2-3 ft north, 3-4 ft south. Currently noting areas of fog over the waters, and a Marine Dense Fog Advy is in effect through mid-morning for the bay and eastern VA rivers. Light and variable winds continue this morning, with light winds veering around to the W-SW this afternoon and this evening. Waves remain around 1 ft and seas subsiding to 2-3 ft along the coastal zones. Marine conditions are still expected to rapidly deteriorate early Monday morning. Strong high pressure will push a strong cold front through the area late tonight into early Monday morning. Winds will increase sharply in the wake of the front, as an area of low pressure skirts northeast off the Carolina coast. The past few successive runs of the CAMs have been stronger and closer to the coast with the low, with the resultant tighter pressure gradient resulting in an increased chance of Gale Force gusts in post-frontal CAA. It does look increasingly likely that a 6-10 hour period of gale- force gusts accompanies the initial push of this drier, colder air pushing into the region, along with some rain and snow showers. Still lower confidence with regard to the exact duration of Gale Force gusts, but there is enough confidence for the central and southern coastal zones south of Wachapreague, as well as the Currituck Sound and the Mouth of the Ches Bay, to add a Gale Watch for Monday. Have run the headline from mid- morning Monday through midnight Monday/early Tuesday. For the remaining zones, while a brief period of Gale force gusts is possible, they appear brief enough to handle with SMWs as needed, and thus a Small Craft Advisory has been issued for the duration of the event from late tonight through Tuesday morning. It is possible that later shifts may have to extend out a bit farther out, as weak CAA lingers into the day on Tuesday as high pressure builds across the area, and also as seas linger AOA 5 ft. Winds diminish Tuesday into Tuesday night, but ramp back up again early Wed as a warm front lifts across the region. Another strong cold frontal passage brings another period of strong SCA to low-end Gales by Friday into next weekend. As winds increase on Monday, waves will rapidly build to 3-5 ft in the Bay (highest at the mouth of the Bay) and seas will build to 6-9 ft over the coastal waters. Despite an expected gradual downtrend in winds Tuesday, seas will be slower to subside, and will likely remain near or just briefly drop below SCA criteria before building again with the second wind surge forecast for Wednesday. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...Freezing Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for MDZ021>025. NC...Freezing Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for NCZ012>014. VA...Freezing Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for VAZ048- 060>062-064>069-075>090-092-093-096-097-099-509>524. Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for VAZ095-098- 100-525. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for ANZ630>632- 634>638. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Monday to 6 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ630>632-650-652. Gale Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for ANZ633-634-654-656-658. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Monday to midnight EST Monday night for ANZ635>638. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB/RHR NEAR TERM...RHR SHORT TERM...RHR LONG TERM...LKB/RHR AVIATION...RHR MARINE...MAM/NB ####018002912#### FXUS65 KLKN 070802 AAA AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion...Updated National Weather Service Elko NV 1202 AM PST Sun Dec 7 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1202 AM PST Sun Dec 7 2025 * Quiet conditions with warming temperatures return Monday and Tuesday * Low chances for light showers across northern Elko county Wednesday into Thursday morning * Upper level ridging looks to be the dominant weather feature Friday into next weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1202 AM PST Sun Dec 7 2025 Current forecast is on track. No changes have been made to the current seven day forecast. && .DISCUSSION... An upper trough will be well to the east today allowing the development of a ridge of high pressure that will build in across the Great Basin shoving the storm track that has been across the Pacific NW north into Canada. Models have recently hinted that this ridge may not be as strong as initially though as recently as yesterday. So While Monday and Tuesday look to be dry with quiet conditions, models hint that a upper trough moving through the Pacific northwest may be strong enough to clip northern Nevada Wednesday into Thursday morning. For now, precipitation with this trough looks to be limited to Northern Elko County, and with snow levels during passage forecast to be above 8500 feet, look for isolated rain showers, with snow limited to the highest peaks of the Independence and Jarbidge Ranges. As for amounts, isolated pockets of up to 0.25” of water, with up to 2” of snow. After Thursday, models again show ridging re-intensify across the SW US leading to another round of warming temperatures and quiet, dry weather conditions. Temperatures will be on a general warming trend this week, with highs starting in the mid 40s to mid 50s Sunday afternoon warming into the low 50s to low 60s by next weekend. Overnight lows will also warm from the upper teens to upper 20’s Sunday morning, warming into the mid 20s to mid 30s for next weekend. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: There is high confidence in the development of a ridge of high pressure across the SW US and Great Basin Regions that will bring quiet weather and warming temperatures Monday and Tuesday. There is low to moderate confidence in the chances for isolated showers across northern Elko County Wednesday into Thursday morning associated with a upper trough clipping Nevada. There is high confidence in the re-intensification of upper level ridging across the SW US that will lead to quiet, dry weather with warming temperatures Friday into next weekend. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions are forecast through at least the next 24 hours. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...98 AVIATION...98 ####018003214#### FXUS63 KEAX 070803 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 203 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... * Roller coaster temperatures this week with below normal temperatures today/tonight, a brief warm up on Tuesday ahead of potentially the coldest air of the season thus far late week. * Light snow event possible Wednesday night into Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 202 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025 Surface low pressure has moved into the Mississippi River Valley with north- northeast flow developing behind the cold front sweeping through the region. This fetch will advect low lying stratus into the region leading to a fairly gray day today. The cloud cover combined with cold air advection will keep temperatures 10-15 degrees below normal today and tonight across eastern Kansas into western Missouri and through tomorrow afternoon as the cold dense air lingers across central and eastern portions of the state on Monday. The low lying clouds will thin and develop some breaks on Monday as southwest flow draws warmer drier air into the region. The effects of the sustained southwest flow will be more noticeable on Tuesday as temperatures warm 5-10 degrees above normal; however, these conditions are not expected to last as a trough deepens into the Upper Midwest and the associated cold front swings through the region on Wednesday. A series of short waves are expected to build southeast in northwest flow aloft and could lead to a light snow event Wednesday night into Thursday. While the entire profile looks to be below freezing for locations north of I-70, the dendritic layer looks to be fairly high between 500-600 mb. Saturation within this layer looks limited in duration, and thus the LREF ensemble only suggests ~10 percent chance of snow amounts over 1" near the Iowa/Missouri border with lesser amount/probabilities farther south. Outlook for next weekend is interesting in that models are hinting that Hudson Bay Low drags air from the arctic circle south into the central US as a wave moves from western Canada towards the Upper Midwest. Depending on how this wave evolves, interacts with the themal boundary and the trajectory the system takes, additional snow would be possible. At this point, the ECMWF solution is more of an outlier, so have kept the forecast dry beyond Thursday for the time being. What is more certain at this point is the cold air, which has a 30-40 percent chance of remaining in the teens or colder for highs on Saturday. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1039 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 MVFR - IFR ceilings are expected to build into the region behind a cold front moving through the region. Light wintry precip is possible near the Iowa/Missouri border through 10Z. Thereafter, the MVFR stratus is expected to remain through much of the day, thinning and scattering out towards sunset. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BT AVIATION...BT ####018006392#### FXUS63 KLSX 070804 AFDLSX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 204 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - The temperature falls behind a cold front this morning bringing winter-like temperatures through Monday. A brief warm up comes Tuesday and Wednesday before the cold returns again. - A weak wave on Thursday will bring light snow to parts of the region. MUCH colder air moves in for the weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Tuesday) Issued at 200 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025 Surface low pressure is tracking east across northern Missouri this morning. To the north of the low track, widespread snow is falling across Iowa into northern Illinois, but this has largely missed our area to the north. Behind the low, a cold front is pushing southward through the Plains, and as the low exits east this morning we'll see that front drop through our area from north to south. North of I-70 this front moves through near or before daybreak, with the temperature holding steady or falling through the day. South of I-70 it'll be more mild with a few hours to warm up a touch more before the cold front comes in. The result is a strong gradient in high temperatures today. Some low level moisture does wrap around the departing low and we'll see that primarily in the form of clouds, or perhaps a sprinkle or flurry. But this is not expected to be impactful if it occurs. Surface high pressure builds into the Great Lakes tonight and then pushes into the Northeast on Monday. This will set up our coldest night tonight, when temperatures will be in the teens and single digits area wide with a persistent northerly wind. Southerly return flow begins on Monday as the surface high moves east, but the warm up won't really be noticeable until Tuesday when we warm some 20 degrees or more, into the 40s and 50s area wide. That's the warmest weather we've seen since before Thanksgiving. Kimble && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday Night through Saturday) Issued at 200 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025 After a warm up Tuesday into Wednesday in briefly zonal flow, troughing becomes reestablished later this week with a return of the winter cold. A robust trough moving through the Great Lakes on Wednesday will drag a cold front southeast behind it. Guidance continues to pull back on our rain chances with this as the better forcing remains well to our north over the Great Lakes. However, it will put an end to our brief warm up and send the temperature falling again. The initial front on Wednesday gives us more of a glancing blow from the cold air, with the core of this cold pushing more to the east into New England. In fact, the front may not even make it all the way through our area as it stalls and briefly lifts back north as a warm front on Thursday as the next shortwave trough moves through the northwest flow aloft. This wave is similar to the last few that affected our area, of the "Clipper" style with the bulk of the precipitation falling along and north of the surface warm front. That of course will also be where the cold air will be, with the bulk of the precipitation falling as snow, potentially changing to rain as the temperature briefly warms. The primary uncertainty with this wave is where it will track as well as some timing uncertainty. Most guidance does suggest this wave will take a more southerly track than this morning's wave did, but with 5 more days of variables to resolve we don't have strong confidence on impacts locally yet. Among the 12Z ensemble guidance, up to 70 percent of members produce measurable precipitation across the bulk of our forecast area on Thursday, but amounts remain light. Less than 30 percent of members produce more than 0.1 inch of precipitation, roughly corresponding to 1 inch or more of snowfall. After Thursday's wave, another cold front gets shoved southward with even colder air behind this one. This time the cold air takes better aim at our area with much colder air lasting through the weekend. At this point it's looking like we'll see another 3 days or so with the temperature not warming above freezing during the day, and potentially falling to near zero degrees at night. There's still uncertainty on just how cold it gets, with NBM interquartile range for both highs and lows remaining high (more than 10 degrees) through this period. But guidance has been trending colder over the last several forecast cycles with more members getting on board with the colder scenarios. Looking at the probabilistic NBM, on the warmer end of things (90th percentile) we're still looking at at least 2 days with high temperatures near freezing. On the colder end (10th percentile) we'll see at least 3 days below freezing, with highs closer to 10 degrees. The probability of subzero low temperatures has risen to 40 percent or higher from I-70 northward this weekend. Those colder scenarios will be further enabled if we get a fresh snow cover laid down on Thursday. Kimble && .AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Sunday Night) Issued at 937 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 Little change in thinking from last update. MVFR ceilings are moving northward ahead of a low pressure system which will move across Missouri into Illinois tonight and Sunday morning. Another area of low MVFR/IFR ceilings will move south out of Iowa behind the low and its trailing cold front. These two areas of low clouds will eventually meet in east central Missouri/southwest Illinois Sunday morning. Low MVFR/IFR ceilings will then prevail through 00Z. Patchy drizzle is also possible for much of the day Sunday. Drizzle is expected to mix with and possibly change over to snow flurries before ending. Precipitation is expected to be light enough to have little to no impact on airport operations. Guidance suggests that the low ceilings will begin clearing from north to south after 00Z Sunday...although the improvement will be slow and may not reach the I-70 corridor before the end of the period. Carney && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX ####018008739#### FXUS61 KCLE 070804 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 304 AM EST Sun Dec 7 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A weak clipper system will move across the region today pushing a cold front through the area this evening. High pressure will build into the region late tonight and Monday. A stronger clipper and low pressure system will move through the Great Lakes on Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... The main weather message... -Light snow accumulations up to 1 inch are possible today, primarily north of Highway 30. -Minor travel impacts maybe possible today into this evening. -A few lake-enhanced snow showers may linger this evening across the Snowbelt. A weak clipper system is currently over the Cornbelt of the Midwest and tracking in our direction for later today. While it may appear a little more ominous on the regional radars this morning, this system will slowly weaken as it tracks over our area today. Ahead of the approaching system, there is a light southerly flow this morning. There is also a shallow layer of moisture below 850 mb this morning. This shallow moisture layer is associated with low stratus deck over the region and some patchy fog over central and western Ohio this morning. There is limited potential for some patchy light freezing drizzle or mist this morning before the light snow arrives. But do to low confidence, we have left it out of the forecast at this time. Upper level support and moisture with this clipper coming through today will be limited. Forecast model guidance is showing possibly up to a tenth of an inch of QPF over our area today. Given that this system will move through during the day with temperatures near or just slightly below freezing, a dusting to around 1 inch of snowfall may be possible. The better chance for light accumulations will be primarily north of Highway 30 today. As this weak low pressure system moves through the eastern Great Lakes late today, it will push a cold front through as well. Winds will become northwesterly 10 to 15 mph by this evening. A push of colder air will also follow behind the cold frontal passage this evening with 850 mb falling down to around -14C. There may be a few lake enhanced snow showers lingering around into this evening for the Snowbelt region. Another 1 inch of light snowfall may be possible for the primary Snowbelt through this evening. High temperatures today will be in the lower to middle 30s today before the cold front arrives. High pressure will build over the region late tonight into Monday. Overnight low temperatures will drop back down into the teens with a few single digits possible where skies clear out. Monday will be a quiet weather day with a mix of clouds and peaks of sun. It will be cold Monday with high temperatures only in the middle to upper 20s. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... High pressure will exit the region towards the New England coast on Tuesday. Another fast moving clipper and low pressure system will track through the Upper Great Lakes on Tuesday. There will be an increase in cloud cover and gusty southerly to southwesterly winds on Tuesday. Southwest winds will be 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. Another round of light precip will arrive with the Tuesday clipper system, starting as light snow but mixing with or changing to light rain later in the day as milder air pushes in from the southwest. The better chance for precip on Tuesday will be further north near the lakeshore and areas of NEOH and NWPA. Some minor light snowfall up to 1 inch may be possible on Tuesday before the precip changes over to rain by Tuesday evening and night. High temperatures Tuesday will climb above freezing into the middle and upper 30s. The parade of clipper systems continues for Wednesday with a stronger low pressure system that track through the Great Lakes region. We will be on the milder side initially for the Wednesday clipper. Gusty southwesterly winds will continue on Wednesday 15 to 25 mph, gusts up to 40 mph. Rain showers will be likely on Wednesday with temperatures in the upper 30s to lower 40s during the day. Another cold front will move late Wednesday with another shot of colder air. Rain will change back to light snow showers Wednesday evening. Colder air aloft will spill over Lake Erie with a flare up lake enhanced and or lake effect snow showers Wednesday night for the Snowbelt. Some minor accumulations will be possible. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... The long range model guidance show a very unsettled, wintry and cold weather pattern for the end of the week into next weekend. A large and deep upper level trough will continue it's grip over the Great Lakes region and much of the eastern CONUS. The parade of fast moving clippers and reinforcing shots of cold air will be the main weather theme through next weekend. Another clipper may move through late Thursday through early Friday and another one over the weekend. Light snowfall accumulations will be possible for all of northern Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania associated with the system snow. A deeper cyclonic flow under the upper level trough may develop over the Great Lakes region Friday through next weekend and bring a decent setup of lake effect snow for both the primary and secondary Snowbelt. Stay tuned! && .AVIATION /06Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/... An expansive MVFR cloud deck over the area is expected to impact the region through at least the rest of tonight. A weak cold front lingers across Lake Erie, though there has been less lake effect snow than expected along this front, so have removed all snow mention at KERI tonight. An area of low pressure will weaken as it moves across the area on Sunday. This is likely to bring snow to most of the area Sunday morning into early Sunday afternoon with 3-6 hours of IFR visibilities are likely along the I-75 corridor. This will weaken as it moves east, with more variable visibility in the 3-5 SM range with brief IFR visibilities possible at times. Patchy drizzle may be possible for a few hours Sunday morning before the snow moves in, though the probability of this happening has decreased compared to previous forecasts. Light and variable winds briefly become south and southwest Sunday morning into early Sunday afternoon before become northwest Sunday evening to north Sunday night. Outlook...Non-VFR is expected again with snow on Tuesday which will gradually transition to rain by Wednesday morning. Rain will transition back over to snow Wednesday evening through Thursday. && .MARINE... Southwesterly winds of 15 to 25 knots on Lake Erie today will veer to westerly and decrease to 10 to 20 knots tonight. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the nearshore waters east of Cleveland until 10 PM this evening. Waves will drop off overnight as a ridge builds across the lake. Another low pressure system tracking out of the Plains will weaken as it moves towards the Ohio Valley on Sunday, pulling a cold front south across Lake Erie. Winds will shift to the northwest and then north at 15-25 knots and Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed again east of the Lake Erie Islands Sunday night and continuing into Monday morning on the Central Basin. Next we turn on our attention to an active mid-week period. Low pressure will move east across the Central Great Lakes on Tuesday and southerly winds on Lake Erie will increase to 25-35 knots. Winds remain elevated Tuesday night then ramp up a little more as a stronger low pressure system traverses the Central Great Lakes but is displaced just south of the first one. Both the Tuesday and Wednesday system are accompanied by a strong low level jet and could potentially see a low end gale with either or both. Winds shift to the west and northwest behind the system Wednesday night. Will continue to monitor the track of these system for possible Gale conditions and Small Craft Advisories that will follow on the east half of Lake Erie. Low water conditions are likely again on the western basin of Lake Erie Tuesday afternoon through early Thursday. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...77 NEAR TERM...77 SHORT TERM...77 LONG TERM...77 AVIATION...Saunders MARINE...10