####018007192#### FXUS62 KRAH 101841 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 240 PM EDT Wed Jun 9 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * Addition of a marginal (level 1 of 5) severe thunderstorm risk to the Triad late this afternoon. && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 240 PM Wednesday... 1) Conditional threat of severe weather this afternoon and evening across northern and western counties. 2) Above normal temperatures return today, with unusual and potentially dangerous heat Thu/Fri. The heat may abate a bit Sat, but temps will stay well above normal through Sun. 3) Afternoon and evening thunderstorm chances will continue each day Friday into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... As of 240 PM Wednesday... KEY MESSAGE 1...There is a marginal (level 1 of 5) risk for severe thunderstorms this afternoon, primarily across the Triad. The primary focus of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon has occurred to the north across Virginia with a line of storms that originally tracked across Ohio and West Virginia and continues to move east-southeast. While the bulk of this activity is expected to remain to the north across Virginia, the western end of the line could move into northern North Carolina. In addition, SPC has a marginal (level 1 of 5) risk for severe weather primarily across the Triad for strong wind gusts. Despite the low cloud cover that was across the area for much of the morning, there are some breaks in the high clouds and diurnal cumulus has formed, with up to 2000 J/kg of instability available for thunderstorm development. A lack of wind shear should minimize any widespread threat of strong thunderstorms. Additional showers and thunderstorms have formed away from the primary line in Virginia, so this is not the only threat area for precipitation. Any precipitation should generally be winding down by sunset, with all rain done by midnight. KEY MESSAGE 2... Above normal temperatures with unusual and potentially dangerous heat Thu/Fri. Temps will stay well above normal through early next week. Widespread high temperatures around 90 degrees are likely across central North Carolina this afternoon, and the mercury will continue to rise tomorrow. All locations should rise into the 90s, and an isolated triple digit reading cannot be ruled out. Flow out of the south is continuing to bring additional moisture into the area, and this will allow many places to have a heat index in the low 100s tomorrow. There is the potential for heat indices to reach 105 northeast of Raleigh tomorrow, which is the local criteria for heat advisories. After collaborating with neighboring offices, have decided to hold off on issuing an advisory at this time. Despite the lack of a heat advisory, anybody who is outside and active tomorrow should be sure to take the necessary precautions to remain well hydrated. Temperatures will continue to be warm on Friday with potentially dangerous heat as highs will reach triple digits in portions of Central NC again. Latest guidance shows highs in the mid-90s across the NW Piedmont and upper 90s elsewhere, with the Triangle and portions of the Coastal Plain reaching triple digits. Friday will be the hottest day, and with overnight lows only dropping into the 70s, the lack of overnight relief will significantly impact the heat risk. Consequently, heat advisories will likely be needed Friday as the risk for sudden heat illnesses spikes. On Friday, there is a high chance of almost all of central North Carolina reaching a Major HeatRisk (Level 3 of 4), which can adversely impact anyone without adequate cooling. However, chance of showers and storms late Friday afternoon and evening could help alleviate some of the heat Friday afternoon, but if storms hold off until early evening- temperatures will stay on track for near record temperatures. KEY MESSAGE 3... Afternoon and evening thunderstorm chances will continue each day through early next week with best chance Monday and Tuesday. While much of Thursday will be dry, another MCS is expected to develop to the north of the area and track to the southeast Thursday afternoon, with areas northeast of Raleigh the most likely to have rain around sunset. The forecast reflects this, although confidence in the particulars is low due to the forecast depending on thunderstorms that have not yet developed. Friday onward there will be daily afternoon chances for showers and storms across the region. A weak cold front will move into the region late Friday evening into early Saturday morning before stalling out over the weekend. Another frontal boundary will slowly move across the Mid-Atlantic region bringing increased chances of showers and storms Tuesday and Wednesday next week. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 125 PM Wednesday... TAF period: TAFs should be primarily VFR over the next 24 hours. The one exception would be for any showers and thunderstorms that affect INT, GSO, and RDU. A line of showers and thunderstorms has steadily trended southeast across West Virginia into Virginia, and if this line holds together, it might graze INT/GSO, but would have a better chance of reaching RDU. Additional showers and isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled out either; any precipitation would result in flight restrictions. The potential for showers is not high enough at RWI to include at this time, while no showers are expected at FAY. After sunset, just some scattered low clouds are expected through the nighttime hours into Thursday. Southwest wind with gusts up to 20 kt through the afternoon will remain out of the southwest overnight with gusts coming to an end. Outlook: The primary chance for showers/storms Thursday afternoon will be around RDU/RWI, although the chance can not be ruled out at other terminals. Diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms will continue through the period, with the highest chance for widespread coverage coming on Monday. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures: June 10: KFAY: 99/2008 June 11: KGSO: 98/1914 KRDU: 100/1914 KFAY: 102/1926 June 12: KRDU: 98/2002 KFAY: 99/1926 June 13: KRDU: 100/2002 KFAY: 99/2022 June 14: KGSO: 98/1926 KRDU: 97/1944 KFAY: 100/2022 June 15: KRDU: 99/2015 KFAY: 101/2015 Record High Minimum Temperatures: June 10: KGSO: 75/1981 KRDU: 76/2020 June 11: KGSO: 74/2008 KRDU: 74/2008 KFAY: 77/1981 June 12: KGSO: 72/1998 KRDU: 75/1986 KFAY: 76/2016 June 13: KGSO: 73/2015 KRDU: 75/2025 KFAY: 77/1998 June 14: KGSO: 71/2025 KRDU: 79/2022 KFAY: 77/2022 June 15: KGSO: 74/2022 KRDU: 78/2025 KFAY: 76/1926 June 16: KGSO: 73/2015 KRDU: 75/2025 KFAY: 77/2015 && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Green/CA AVIATION...Green ####018004674#### FXUS64 KCRP 101843 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 143 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 141 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026 - Moderate HeatRisk across South Texas through the week and into the weekend. - Daily low rain chances continue through the weekend, then increase to a medium chance early next week with heavy rainfall possible. - Moderate to High Rip Current Risk and minor coastal flooding possible late in the week and into the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 141 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026 Mid level ridging will keep convection isolated through Friday. An inverted mid level trough is forecast to slowly move west across the region Friday and Saturday combined with slightly deeper low level moisture coming in from the gulf (moisture from T.S. Christina in the Pacific moving into Central America) will lead to a slightly more active sea breeze over the weekend with chances ranging from 10- 35%. Best chance for rain is expected early next week. A long wave trough moving east across the Plains and Texas will bring a weak cold front toward S TX. The front is progged to stall across S TX, which will provide moderate low level moisture convergence. PWATs of 2.1-2.3 inches will still be in place across S TX. The deep moisture combined with an unstable airmass south of the frontal boundary and increasing upper level support as the upper trough approaches the area, will be conducive for convective development with heavy rainfall. The stalled front will be the primary focus for the heaviest rainfall, which could lead to flash flooding. Confidence in this scenario coming to fruition is currently low to medium. If the front stalls north of the area, best rain chances will also be north of the area with much less rainfall across S TX. Continue to monitor for updates to the upcoming week's rainfall potential. There is a moderate risk of heat related impacts through the week and weekend due to temperatures in the 90s combining with high humidity, leading to heat indices ranging 100-110 degrees. The rip current risk is expected to become moderate to high beginning Friday and continuing Saturday. Swell periods are forecast to increase to 8-9 seconds, which also coincides with astronomically higher tides and nearing a new moon. This may result in a high rip current risk as well as minor coastal flooding by Friday into the weekend. This is due to a broad low forecasted to develop across the southern gulf, which will lead to a long fetch of east to southeast flow across the gulf toward the TX coast. As for any tropical weather, the National Hurricane Center has a 10% chance of development of a broad low across the Bay of Campeche. However, conditions are not expected to be favorable for significant development. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 141 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026 A few weak showers moving across inland locations this afternoon will diminish by late afternoon/early evening. An isolated shower could briefly move across a TAF site, but will have little to no aviation impacts. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail this afternoon and evening. MVFR CIGs are expected to develop once again overnight into early Thursday morning. VSBYs may also drop briefly to MVFR levels due to patchy fog across the ALI area early Thursday morning. Conditions will improve to VFR by mid morning Thursday. && .MARINE... Issued at 141 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026 A moderate to fresh (BF 4-5) onshore flow will persist through the period. Seas 3-4 feet expected through Thursday, then increasing to 5-7 feet over the weekend in response to a long east-southeast fetch across the gulf. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms expected this weekend becoming scattered to numerous early next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 80 91 79 90 / 10 20 10 10 Victoria 77 92 77 93 / 0 10 10 20 Laredo 77 97 77 95 / 0 0 0 20 Alice 77 92 77 92 / 0 10 10 20 Rockport 82 91 82 91 / 10 10 0 0 Cotulla 77 96 77 95 / 0 0 0 20 Kingsville 78 91 78 90 / 0 10 10 10 Navy Corpus 82 90 82 89 / 0 10 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...TE/81 AVIATION...TE/81