####018007450#### FXUS62 KTAE 181255 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 855 AM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 854 AM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024 The previous forecast is on track. No major changes were made. Geiger && .NEAR TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 332 AM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024 Expecting some fog development predawn today through our Florida counties and into southeast Alabama. There could be some isolated areas of dense fog in the Florida counties west of Tallahassee. Will watch how it develops and if an advisory is needed. Any fog that develops should dissipate by mid morning. Shortwave ridging and thickness values increase slightly today in advance of a shortwave trough traversing the flow to our north through the Mid South to the southern Appalachians. This will nudge highs today up a degree or so with readings in the mid 80s east of Tallahassee to Albany line despite continues high cloud cover. Further west, appears more mid cloud will be in the mix as the shortwave glances by and thus highs are a few degrees lower than eastern zones with readings in the low to mid 80s. Although not explicitly mentioned in the zones would not be surprised to have an isolated shower occur in southeast Alabama this afternoon and northern tier Georgia counties this evening north of Albany as the trough moves by. && .SHORT TERM... (Friday through Saturday night) Issued at 332 AM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024 Westerly zonal flow aloft will prevail bringing benign conditions to the forecast area on Friday. Some embedded mid- upper level moisture embedded in the flow should be conducive to cloud development going into Saturday, though Friday should remain relatively clear. Persistent southerly flow beneath clear skies Friday will result in temperatures reaching the upper 80s to low 90s areawide with overnight temperatures going into Saturday dropping to the low to mid 60s. An upper shortwave disturbance will move into the area embedded within the zonal flow sparking isolated thunderstorms across the area. Higher confidence of this exists north of the FL state border in our SE AL and SW GA counties where PoPs range from 20-30%. Severe weather is not expected with these storms, though some strong gusts may be possible. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Wednesday) Issued at 332 AM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024 Zonal flow aloft will continue with a few more embedded disturbances expected to parade through the region. A cold front is expected to slowly progress east and serve as the primary forcing mechanism for these storms. TStorms are expected to occur on Sunday afternoon bringing storms to the entire area. Severe weather is currently not expected with these storms, though a few strong gusts and perhaps some small hail cannot be ruled out. Storms will persist across our easternmost SW GA and FL Big Bend counties through Monday before making way for benign conditions to start the workweek as high pressure builds back in. High temperatures will drop somewhat in the post-frontal environment with upper 70s to low 80s expected west of the Apalachicola River and low to mid 80s east. Temperatures will gradually warm each day through Wednesday where a return to the mid to upper 80s appears possible. Overnight lows are expected to remain within the 50s throughout the long term forecast. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 632 AM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024 Fog/stratus has developed in portions of our Florida counties from K54J east to KFPY. Thus far, TLH has been the lone recipient of degraded flight conditions with VLIFR/LIFR conditions the past several hours. At ECP, those conditions have remained east of the airfield. Will keep tempo IFR conditions here through 14Z while keeping lowered conditions at TLH for the same time. Beyond 14Z, VFR is anticipated to return to all TAF sites. Overnight, another round of IFR/LIFR is expected to return to essentially the same locations. && .MARINE... Issued at 332 AM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024 Surface high pressure will keep our waters relatively calm through the forecast period with favorable boating conditions expected. An occasional light wind speed increase near the shore is expected each afternoon with a developing seabreeze. On Sunday, a cold front will push through the area bringing rain and thunderstorms back into the forecast. Cautionary conditions are possible late this weekend into early next week. Southerly winds will prevail through the majority of the forecast period before && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 332 AM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024 Dry conditions continue for the next several days with favorable dispersions and MinRH values falling to around 40% inland to 60% near the coastline. Rain chances do increase gradually this weekend, Saturday in our south central Georgia zones and area wide Sunday as a cold front approaches the region. High dispersions greater than 75 is possible across the southwest Georgia zones. Aside from that, hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 332 AM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024 Dry conditions will prevail for the next few days before the next system moves into our area on Sunday. Less than a half inch of rainfall is expected to occur with this weekend system areawide. The areal flood warning remains for Leon County for the areas of Capitola, Chaires, and Baum of northeast Tallahassee. County emergency management reports hazardous standing water and several roadways remain closed. In addition to the Apalachicola, St Marks, Withlacoochee, Aucilla, and Ochlockonee rivers remaining in flood, the Suwanee has now risen into flood at Rock Creek, Luraville, and Branford. The Suwannee basin is now seeing water from upstream make its way into the basin and is now into flood at Rock Creek, Luraville, and Branford. Expect possible rises to continue down the Suwannee with additional points possibly reaching flood in the days ahead. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 85 63 91 65 / 10 0 0 0 Panama City 79 65 81 66 / 10 0 0 0 Dothan 84 64 87 64 / 10 10 0 0 Albany 86 64 89 66 / 10 10 10 0 Valdosta 87 64 90 66 / 0 0 0 0 Cross City 86 60 88 62 / 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 76 65 79 66 / 0 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT /9 AM CDT/ this morning for FLZ008-010-012>019-026>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127-128- 134. High Rip Current Risk through late Friday night for FLZ112. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...Scholl SHORT TERM...Worster LONG TERM....Worster AVIATION...Scholl MARINE...Worster FIRE WEATHER...Scholl HYDROLOGY...Worster