####018002872#### FXUS65 KREV 150820 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 120 AM PDT Fri May 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Warm, above-average temperatures through today. Typical westerly breezes with low humidity and poor overnight RH recovery continues across W.Nevada mid-slopes. * A series of cold fronts will bring 10-20 degrees of cooling over the weekend with gusty north winds and chances for light showers along the front on Sunday. * A warming trend will bring a return of above average temperatures for the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Today is the final day of our warming trend, with afternoon zephyr winds up to 25 mph. The drying trend will linger into Saturday, with limited overnight recoveries ranging 30-40% across western Nevada. The first of two cold frontal boundaries will arrive for Saturday, bringing cooler air and increasing winds. Saturday's high temperatures will range the lower 70s for western Nevada and mid 60s with northwest gusts reaching up to 25 mph. Sunday, even colder northerly winds with a secondary frontal boundary will drop temperatures even further to near 10-15 degrees below seasonal averages. Wind gusts out of the north will reach up to 40 mph, with the strongest gusts found south of US 50 and over Mineral and Mono counties. The uptick in winds and decline in temperatures will be noticeable to the outdoor enthusiast crowd, and may bring blowing dust and bumpy flights to travelers as well as choppy lakes across lakes such as Walker and Topaz lakes. With the secondary front, rain and snow showers have a 10-20% chance of developing, with the Basin and Range having the best chances. Snow levels will drop to around 5500-6000 feet by early Sunday morning, along with the arrival of a 540mb dam thickness. This suggests some freezing may be present in elevations above 6000 feet, mostly for northwestern and north-central Nevada. An even colder start to Monday morning will be the last we see of the cold fronts, with warming and drying to resume Monday afternoon. Lows Monday morning could even dip into the low 20s and upper teens across the Sierra. HRICH && .AVIATION... * VFR conditions return to the skies over western Nevada, northeastern California and the Sierra. Afternoon gusts to 20 kts possible today. * Northerly winds will arrive Saturday, increasing with gusts to 25 kts Saturday, and up to 50 kts near KHTH on Sunday. Blowing dust may reduce surface visibilities on Sunday over KNFL, KLOL, and KHTH. Shower and snow chances will be greatest Sunday, with the best opportunity over the KLKN area. HRICH && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...None. CA...None. && $$ ####018011328#### FXUS63 KFSD 150822 AFDFSD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 322 AM CDT Fri May 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Relative humidity and wind gusts around 25 mph along Highway 14 lead to critical fire danger. Red Flag Warning in effect today 9 AM to 7 PM CDT. Elevated to near critical fire conditions elsewhere due to very low humidity. - Shower and thunderstorm chances return this afternoon and evening, mainly across northwestern Iowa. A few storms may be strong to severe between 4 and 9 PM. Main threats hail to 2 inches and wind gusts to 75 mph in diameter. Have a way to receive warnings! - Significantly higher thunderstorm risks develop Saturday night through Monday. Strong to severe storms possible overnight Saturday into early Sunday. Potential for widespread severe storms remains focused Sunday afternoon and early evening. Monitor the forecast and review severe weather plans now! && .UPDATE... Issued at 318 AM CDT Fri May 15 2026 No changes to the forecast into this morning. Forecast for today's fire concerns remain on track as well, with Red Flag Warning in effect today for areas along and north of US Hwy 14 - more details in the Fire Weather Section of this discussion. Changes were made to tonight with increasing severe risk; details below. Increased pops in northwestern IA for this afternoon and evening to account for convective initiation. Some of the 15.00z CAMs (NAM Nest, ARW) break the cap with the front as far west as the SD/IA border and as early as 3 PM. However, other guidance like the 15.06z RAP and 15.00z Fv3 are as late as 6-7 PM with initiation and keep it more localized to the front in our far southeastern counties. HRRR trends are also maintaining a later and more easterly initiation through the 15.06z run. Based on this and the trends in the HREF, think that the greatest severe threat for our area will be from roughly 4 to 9 PM this evening, as nearly all guidance has storms exiting our area by 9-10 PM. Duration of severe threat is highly dependent on where and when convection initiates. Main threats are large hail to 2 inches in diameter and wind gusts up to 75 mph. With increasing shear and steep mid level lapse rates, expect hail to be the main threat with any of the more discrete and isolated cells. As the front moves east across northwestern IA this afternoon and evening, 0-6km shear vectors become more parallel to this boundary, supporting upscale growth and increasing wind threat with gusts to 75 mph possible. Biggest uncertainty with today's severe threat boils down to where and when the cap breaks. Secondary concern is our moisture return, impacting the instability. Trends in observations will need to be closely monitored today. Concerns for strong to severe storms continue through the early part of next week. More details below. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 158 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026 THIS AFTERNOON: Synoptically driven strong southwesterly wind gusts of 30 to 45 mph continue to develop ahead of a surface front moving eastward gradually. We've had quite a few reports of elevated dust as well as blowing dust impacting west to east roadways this afternoon. While widespread visibility remains above 5 miles, very highly localized visibility may drop below 1 mile in higher gusts. While temperatures are slower to respond today with the cloud cover, we're still headed towards critical fire danger. See separate discussion for more details. Otherwise, a few lingering high based showers will remain over NW Iowa into the late afternoon, with isolated shower/tsra possible along the aforementioned front moving east through sunset. TONIGHT: The frontal boundary will slide into the eastern CWA after dark tonight with some persistence of mid-lvl clouds along it. Elsewhere, winds do turn light and variable as temperatures cool into the upper 40s and 50s. FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT: We'll begin to see gradual shifts in the mid- lvl pattern on Friday as zonal flow develops. Two concerns on Friday, one being marginal RFW conditions along the Highway 14 corridor in the afternoon, and the second being potential convection forming along surface convergence zone over eastern Nebraska and western/northwestern Iowa late in the afternoon. Soundings along the Highway 20 corridor show some inhibition lingering at mid- afternoon, but dissipating as convective temps in the low 90s are met. With mid-lvl flow increasing late in the day, just enough forcing on the boundary could force isolated to scattered storms along and south of Highway 20 in the evening. MLCAPE around 1000- 1500 J/KG could support marginally severe hail for a few hours as storms will track southeast with the mean flow away from the CWA. Further north, weaker low-lvl flow should prevent widespread convection from forming into Saturday morning, but it's also a non-zero chance. SATURDAY: The vast majority of the daytime hours of Saturday is anticipated to be dry as brief mid-lvl ridging slides through the area. The surface front that passes through the area today will settle near or north of I-80 but may make a slow retreat northward in the afternoon. By early evening deeper synoptic lift associated with an upper trough ejecting out of the Central Rockies will focus low-lvl convergence and strong theta-e advection south of I-90 or towards Highway 20. This is where some uncertainty begins to grow in the forecast. Models have some variability on the northward extent of surface based activity but strongly support elevated storm development across northern Nebraska eastward into north central Iowa. There may be some potential given 40 knots effective shear, for a few supercells with very large hail to form initially. Later in the evening a potential MCS may try to form over northern Nebraska and lift northeast through the nearly 1500 J/KG MUCAPE bringing both a risk for very large hail but some modest strong wind risks into the Tri-State area into daybreak. Pockets of heavy rain will be possible in this thunderstorm activity. SUNDAY: While some considerable uncertainties remain on Sunday, there continues to be increased potential for impactful and potentially widespread severe weather in the area. As alluded to in Wednesday's discussion, the greatest uncertainty continues to revolve around the extend of the northward advection of the warm sector into the Plains during the day. Overnight and morning convection may play a large role in this process, but ensemble data has trended towards instability shifting further north over the past 24 hours, even showing MLCAPE exceeding 3000 J/KG over portions of NW Iowa by late afternoon. The other limitation we'll need to monitor is the EML that remains in place for much of the daytime hours once morning convection passes. A stubborn warm layer continues to present itself in soundings near 700 mb deep into the afternoon, but thoughts are the amplitude of the slightly negatively tilted trough may be enough to overcome this limitation. Given the magnitude of bulk shear, supportive mid- lvl lapse rates, low-lvl helicity and buoyancy there is certainly potential for a higher end severe weather day well into the evening/overnight hours which includes all modes. This thought is backed up by AI-learning outlook products and CIPS analogs that support a significant severe weather potential. Still quite a few issues to work though and plenty of time for things to change, but it's time to really start monitoring the forecast if plans exist on Sunday or Sunday night. MONDAY: Uncertainty grows further on Monday as models diverge on the positioning of a cold front and how far east it may track. Ensembles of these models are also split with the GFS shoving the effective boundary east. The ECMWF/CMC both stall the front over the eastern CWA and allow it to retreat westward as a secondary trough lift out of the Central Plains. These drastically different scenarios mean a big difference in severe weather risks especially east of I-29 Monday afternoon and evening. QPF TOTALS: A wide array of potential QPF totals remain with this system with NBM continuing to spread low probabilities of higher QPF totals, but expressing a wide array of 10/90th percentile potential between 0.25-2". Convection will ultimately drive the highest totals, and would not be surprised to see pockets of 2"+ by Monday evening. TUESDAY-THURSDAY: Behind this trough, cooler weather will arrive through the middle of the week with minimal hazards expected. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1208 AM CDT Fri May 15 2026 VFR conditions are expected to prevail with mostly clear skies for the duration of the period. Winds are light and variable through Friday morning before becoming westerly for I-90 and north. Areas to the south will be more southerly. A surface boundary passes through after 00Z Saturday, turning winds to the north. Winds become breezy in the afternoon with 15-25 kt gusts, highest near and north of Highway 14. Chances for thunderstorms increase after OOZ Saturday. Some storms could be strong to severe producing 2 inch hail and 60 mph wind gusts. Area most likely to see strong storms is northwest Iowa, especially along and south of Highway 20. Areas to the north are not likely to see any precipitation. Storms should be southeast of the area shortly after 06Z. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 318 AM CDT Fri May 15 2026 Very dry conditions continue today with relative humidity values around and below 25% area wide. Winds remain light over much of the area, although gusts to 25 mph are expected through the day along and north of US Highway 14. A few gusts to 25 mph are possible for parts of south central SD, but these are expected to be brief late this afternoon. This combination leads to near critical and critical fire conditions. Red Flag Warning will be in effect for the US Hwy 14 corridor and northward where confidence in near critical to critical conditions is highest from 9 AM to 7 PM CDT. Rain and storm chances return to portions of the area tonight. Low humidity Saturday (around and less than 25%) through the mid to late afternoon with breezy conditions (gusts to 25 mph) may lead to elevated to near critical conditions for a brief window. Widespread rain and storm chances return to the region Saturday night through Monday, tempering widespread concerns. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...Red Flag Warning from 9 AM this morning to 6 PM CDT this evening for SDZ038>040. MN...Red Flag Warning from 9 AM this morning to 6 PM CDT this evening for MNZ071-072. IA...None. NE...None. && $$ UPDATE...SG DISCUSSION...Dux AVIATION...AJP FIRE WEATHER...SG ####018006995#### FXUS63 KSGF 150822 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 322 AM CDT Fri May 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Summer-like temperatures late week into the weekend with highs in mid to upper 80s approaching records. - Intermittent chances for isolated to widely scattered showers today through the weekend. Most locations will experience more dry time than not. - Widespread rain chances for Monday and Tuesday. Potential for severe storms with this activity. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 320 AM CDT Fri May 15 2026 Convection has developed across central and northern Missouri ahead of an upper level disturbance. The disturbance will continue to move east during the overnight hours. The southern end of this activity may clip the northern portions of our CWA. A few light showers and maybe a rumble of thunder or two could be possible as much of it not all of the area remains dry. Surface low pressure will move into the central Plains today. The pressure gradient will tighten across the area with gusty south to southwesterly winds developing. The strongest will be along and west of Highway 65 where gusts up to 35 mph will be possible at times during the morning and afternoon hours as mixing occurs. Highs will generally warm into the middle to upper 80s on Friday across much of the area. If clouds linger across the eastern Ozarks, highs there may only warm into the lower 80s. An upper level disturbance will move across the area through the morning and afternoon. Some weak elevated MUCAPE will be in place, so a few showers and maybe a rumble of thunder will be possible but coverage will be limited. If any convection can develop, the bases will be very high with only light rainfall amounts expected. Most locations will remain dry and may not be much more than sprinkles where any showers can develop. A strong cap will develop across the area Friday afternoon and evening as warm air advects into the mid levels of the atmosphere. The upper level jet and better lift will be in place across north portions of the area. Storm development will be possible across Nebraska into northern Missouri and Iowa tonight into the early morning hours Saturday. Coverage in storms will likely be better with this activity, and could congeal into a cluster of storms. The storms would then likely move south. The better shear will be to the north so this activity should weaken as it moves into the area, and a stronger cap will be in place father south. Showers and storms will be possible at least as far south as Highway 54. Some showers could make it as far south as Highway 60 as the activity weakens as it moves south. The better coverage will be across central Missouri were the cap will be slightly weaker. Some gusty winds and small hail could be possible across the far northern portions of the area with this activity. Lows will only cool into the middle 60s to the lower 70s Saturday morning as the warm air mass will be in place across the area. Clouds will be in place Saturday morning, but will clear through the day. Highs will then warm into the middle to upper 80s Saturday afternoon. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 320 AM CDT Fri May 15 2026 Lows stay warm Saturday night as southerly flow continues, mostly in the 60s with some remaining as warm as 70 in the west. Low pressure approaches Sunday, tightening the pressure gradient and strengthening WAA, yet again with the threat to break record high temperatures. As that system drags through a front, severe storms are expected to form north of the area in Nebraska and Iowa, coming together into a squall line that has less severe potential the farther it moves south. The SPC has outlined the western portion of the area in a Marginal risk for severe storms Sunday, with threat moving later into the overnight and Monday morning. As the trough axis shifts over the area Monday, more severe weather will be supported as a stronger front begins to push through all of the warmth and moisture that has collected in the Ozarks over the last week. This front looks to move slowly and perhaps stall, which explains the Marginal risk for excessive rainfall Monday from WPC. As the front is in no hurry to move on, its presence will also bring a severe threat for Tuesday, contingent on atmospheric recovery. This energy shift will allow for much cooler highs midweek, with highs in the 70s not much warmer than the lows we are expecting this weekend. The pattern is still active by the end of this forecast period, and the warming trend looks to make a quick recovery. The CPC 8-14 day outlook is still calling for above normal temperatures and leans slightly toward above normal precipitation. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1045 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026 Mid and high level clouds will move across the area tonight and through the day on Friday. Some showers developed across south central Kansas this evening. Shower and thunderstorm development will be possible across northwestern Missouri overnight. This activity should track southeast and could clip portions of central Missouri early Friday morning, but should remain well north of the TAF sites. There is a low chance for a few light rain showers developing across portions of the area Friday morning and afternoon and maybe a rumble of thunder but coverage and chances will both be low. Southerly winds will occur overnight and could gusts up to 20kt at times, but there will be times when winds are not as gusty overnight. South to southwesterly winds will occur Friday morning and afternoon and will increase and remain gusty. Low level wind shear will be possible overnight into Friday morning. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 132 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026 Record High Temperatures: May 15: KSGF: 87/1957 KJLN: 89/1911 KUNO: 87/1957 May 16: KJLN: 89/2001 May 17: KSGF: 88/2001 KJLN: 89/2001 KVIH: 92/1996 KUNO: 89/1980 May 18: KSGF: 88/1962 KJLN: 90/1987 KVIH: 88/1996 KUNO: 89/2001 Record Warmest Low Temperatures: May 15: KSGF: 67/1941 KJLN: 72/1941 KUNO: 55/1998 KVIH: 65/2023 May 16:0 KSGF: 69/2015 KJLN: 73/1974 KUNO: 67/2015 KVIH: 70/1899 May 17: KSGF: 69/1974 KJLN: 75/1974 KUNO: 68/2017 KVIH: 68/2017 May 18: KSGF: 68/1996 KJLN: 74/1996 KUNO: 66/2017 KVIH: 70/1996 May 19: KSGF: 69/2013 KJLN: 74/1996 KUNO: 70/1996 KVIH: 70/1996 && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Wise LONG TERM...Nelson AVIATION...Wise CLIMATE...Lindenberg ####018011309#### FXUS65 KABQ 150824 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 224 AM MDT Fri May 15 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 209 AM MDT Fri May 15 2026 - Dry storms in far eastern New Mexico today may ignite new fires. Localized and erratic wind gusts near these storms may rapidly spread new fire starts. Critical fire weather conditions will also be present in east central and southeast New Mexico today. - A multi-day threat of rapid fire spread will occur Saturday through Monday with the most widespread critical to locally extreme fire weather conditions expected on Sunday and Monday. - Moderate risk of heat-related illness for sensitive populations through Saturday across the Eastern Plains due to near-record heat. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 209 AM MDT Fri May 15 2026 A shortwave trough over southern AZ will move eastward into New Mexico this afternoon, with the sub-tropical jet draped over southern NM. Gusty southwest winds will focus over the southeastern corner of the state early this afternoon where winds have trended stronger with the most recent forecast update. Given the timing of the trough passage, winds will be strongest in the early afternoon prior to peak afternoon mixing. Rain chances have trended up for Friday afternoon as well. Two areas of dry storms and gusty showers will develop today, the first of which will be along the leading edge of the aformentioned shortwave trough. The second will be in the northeast corner of the state along the leading edge of a backdoor front. Similar to Thursday, cloud bases will be very high so evaporative cooling will drive strong microburst wind gusts down to the surface. Instability will be maximized in Chaves county where there is a low chance of severe wind gusts. With dry soils, these strong downbursts wind gusts could create areas of blowing dust at times. Furthermore, very low sfc humidities will once again support the potential for new fire starts from lightning. Gusty and erratic winds could rapidly grow these new fire starts. Dry southwest flow takes over on Saturday as a trough deepens over The Great Basin. South to southwest breezes will prevail around the region and temperatures will remain 5 to 15 degrees above seasonal normals once again. There is a low chance of a few sprinkles in and around the northern mtns during the afternoon, but the much lower PWATs (around 0.3") should not support any wetting rain. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 209 AM MDT Fri May 15 2026 The trough over the western US will continue digging into The Great Basin on Sunday, with strengthening southwest flow over New Mexico. This will translate to stronger winds down to the sfc and the deeper mixing will drop humidities down to dangerously low levels. Currently, probabilities of wind gusts > 50 mph remain quite low, with probs over 50% confined to the high terrain of western and northern NM. The base of the trough will dive into New Mexico Sunday night into Monday, which will keep the boundary layer from decoupling, keeping breezes going in most areas through the night. Monday is now looking like it could be windier than Sunday, with probabilities of wind gusts > 50 mph 40% or higher over much of northern NM, with the highest chances in the northeast. The base of the trough swinging through the southern Rockies on Monday will send a backdoor front into eastern NM. The moisture in the wake of this front could stick around in the east for a few days, supporting low precipitation chances Wednesday through Friday along and east of the central mtn chain. Given the higher instability and wind shear, this environment could support isolated strong to severe storms each afternoon. However, there is still high disagreement with regard to the overall synoptic pattern over the western CONUS mid to late week, which will affect how much moisture is advected in from the east. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1116 PM MDT Thu May 14 2026 Gusty showers have dissipated however a few remnant boundaries could generate intermittent gusts in eastern NM through the night. LLWS will impact sites along the Rio Grande Valley and the Pecos River Valley for the next few hours (through around 09Z). High based showers with gusty and erratic outflow winds will focus over the NE corner of the state Friday afternoon, although there is a low chance of a few showers in east-central and southeast areas as well. A light SW to W breeze will prevail at most Friday afternoon, with the strongest winds in the SE corner of the state. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 209 AM MDT Fri May 15 2026 There were several fire starts from lightning in eastern NM yesterday and it will be a threat once again today in the same areas. Dry storms will focus along the leading edge of a shortwave trough over southeast NM and across the northeast along the leading edge of a backdoor front. Very deep mixing (up to 19,000 feet) means that cloud bases will be very high and any convection that develops (even showers) will support strong and erratic wind gusts down to the surface. In addition, forecast wind speeds have increased across southeast NM, prompting the issuance of a Red Flag Warning for the East Central Plains. If there are lightning fire starts, southwest winds enhanced by nearby showers and storms could rapidly spread these fires. South to southwest breezes along with very low minimum humidity (4 to 10%) prevail on Saturday, creating widespread near critical to critical fire weather conditions. The Fire Weather Watch remains in tact, but was not yet upgraded since winds are marginal for rapid fire spread. Winds will trend stronger on Sunday in response to a deepening trough over The Great Basin. Max RFTI values on Sunday are generally in the 4 to 7 range, with pockets of 8 in eastern NM where winds will be strongest. Long-duration critical fire weather conditions are likely given the very low humidity which should support 10 to 15 hours of single digit humidity in eastern NM. Monday will once again be dry and windy, with the strongest winds focusing over northeastern NM where there is already a 50%+ chance of wind gusts over 50 mph. Winds are forecast to trend weaker beyond Monday, with increasing humidity in eastern areas behind a series of backdoor frontal passages. As a result, there are low chances of storms along and east of the central mtn chain Wednesday through Friday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 85 49 86 50 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 82 38 82 40 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 80 46 82 45 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 81 43 80 41 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 77 46 78 44 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 82 47 83 44 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 79 43 81 43 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 80 52 82 50 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 78 47 79 46 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 84 41 84 42 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 87 45 87 44 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 77 38 77 37 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 79 55 80 54 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 80 46 82 48 / 10 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 78 46 78 46 / 5 0 0 0 Red River....................... 68 40 69 41 / 5 5 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 74 38 75 40 / 10 0 0 0 Taos............................ 82 41 82 43 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 79 46 81 48 / 10 0 5 0 Espanola........................ 86 50 87 51 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 80 51 81 51 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 83 48 84 49 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 86 58 87 57 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 88 55 89 54 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 90 54 91 54 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 88 55 90 55 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 89 52 90 51 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 89 55 90 55 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 89 52 90 50 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 89 55 91 55 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 89 53 90 52 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 84 57 85 57 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 88 55 90 55 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 91 56 92 55 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 81 53 82 53 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 81 52 83 52 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 83 51 85 53 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 84 46 86 49 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 79 50 82 52 / 10 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 82 49 84 49 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 81 50 82 50 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 84 57 85 56 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 77 56 79 54 / 10 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 78 44 82 47 / 20 5 5 0 Raton........................... 84 44 86 46 / 20 5 0 0 Springer........................ 86 45 88 48 / 20 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 82 48 84 53 / 10 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 87 53 91 57 / 20 10 5 0 Roy............................. 85 49 88 52 / 20 5 0 0 Conchas......................... 93 52 96 59 / 20 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 88 53 92 57 / 20 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 96 56 99 61 / 20 5 0 0 Clovis.......................... 95 58 98 58 / 20 0 0 0 Portales........................ 95 58 98 58 / 20 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 93 54 96 55 / 20 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 95 58 98 57 / 20 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 88 58 91 56 / 10 0 0 0 Elk............................. 86 56 89 55 / 10 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening for NMZ104-106-123-125-126. Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ126. && $$ SHORT TERM...16 LONG TERM....16 AVIATION...16 ####018011780#### FXUS63 KGID 150824 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE Issued by National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 324 AM CDT Fri May 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A few (potentially severe) storms will be possible Friday afternoon to early evening across a few locations east of HWY-281. The main hazards will be hail up to the side of ping pong balls and thunderstorm wind gusts near 60 MPH. - Generally greater coverage of strong to severe storms will come both Saturday and Sunday nights. Hail up to the size of golf balls with damaging thunderstorm wind gusts up to 70 MPH may be possible within the strongest storms. An isolated tornado or two cant be ruled out. - Near-critical to critical fire weather concerns may arrive for a southwest portion of the area Sunday given strong southerly winds blowing near 20-30 MPH and gusting as high as 35-45 MPH. - Temperatures ahead of a cold frontal passage early next week will keep highs in the mid 80s and 90s (through Sunday) before temporarily dropping down to the 60s to 70s by Tuesday. A steady increase in highs will likely follow through the end of next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 324 AM CDT Fri May 15 2026 Friday: Scorching hot temperatures with a few afternoon storms (possibly severe) mainly east of Highway-281. Storm chances will return each day this weekend across a portion of the area as the upper-level pattern turns more active. Beginning with a Central Plains approaching upper-level disturbance later tonight, surface pressure will fall in advance across much of central Kansas. A stationary front, setting up across central Kansas and southeast Nebraska today, will serve as the main lifting mechanism for afternoon storm development. Southerly winds on the east side of the surface low will pump up some moisture to much of eastern Kansas and eastern Nebraska, saturating the air mass east of the surface boundary. (low-to- mid 50s dewpoints). As a result, the best ingredients for severe thunderstorm development will be concentrated across the eastern half of the area (up to 1,000-1,5000J/kg of CAPE & 30-40kts of Bulk Shear). The best time frame for storm initiation along this boundary will occur between 5-8PM with storms quickly bubbling up along the stationary front as it meanders eastward during the rest of the afternoon and evening. As a result, the best potential for storms will fall across areas near and east of Highway-281. The probability of precipitation decreases sharply west of HWY-281. A slight risk of severe weather lies across an eastern portion of the area today (east of a line from Columbus to Aurora in Nebraska and down to Osborne in Kansas.) with a Marginal risk in place across the rest of our forecast area. The primary severe weather hazard this afternoon/evening will be large hail up to the size of ping pong balls and thunderstorm wind gusts up to near 60 MPH. Though a brief and more isolated tornado cant be completely ruled out of the window of uncertainty, the low-level shear environment appears to be more on the lower end of the spectrum (<150m^2s^2 of 0-1km SRH with CAPE <1,500J/kg & LCLs >2,000ft). Beyond the evening storms, highs today (90s) will tick slightly higher than the day before as mostly sunny skies will allow the sun to shine bright today. Light easterly winds (5-10 MPH) will provide little in terms of providing much heat relief. Somewhat conservative dewpoints (<60 degrees) will, however, help heat indices from exceeding the mid 90s today. The heat risk for the day will remain in the Minor/Moderate classifications (level 1&2 of 4). Saturday/Sunday: More widespread nighttime/overnight storm coverage (possibly severe) Storm chances will return for the full area late Saturday night. Troughing in the upper levels across the western U.S. will begin to bite into the Central Plains over the weekend, sending in a few shortwave disturbances through the area. Though a few isolated weaker storms could get started earlier in the day Saturday and ahead of the main overnight wave/storm cluster, the biggest severe threat for Saturday will be concentrated during a broad 7PM-6AM time frame as a messy cluster of storms in mixed stages of development sweep through the region. This cluster of storms will feed off of a modest amount of instability (2,000-3,500J/kg of CAPE), shear (30-40kts of Bulk Shear) and surging moisture ahead of a northward lifting warm front (mid 50s to low 60s dewpoints). As a result, strong to severe storms will be possible to develop across the full area (slight risk of severe weather outlook for all of our south central Nebraska areas and for the northern half of our north central Kansas areas). The broad window of possibility (7PM-6AM) comes as short-term model guidance looks to point at the possibility of a few rounds of thunderstorm activity taking shape across the night. The main severe weather hazards will be hail up to the size of golf balls and damaging thunderstorm wind gusts up to 70 MPH. A few tornadoes may also be possible given the potential for storms to choose more of a scattered/discrete convective mode (supercells). At this point in time, tornado parameters look to just meet baseline criteria rather than point towards a more higher end sort of event (more so one or two generally weaker tornadoes possible). A strengthening surface low across central Kansas/Nebraska Sunday will keep the modest instability (2,000-3,5000J/kg of CAPE) and increased moisture (50s to low 60s dewpoints) around for at least for one more day. In addition, the general troughing pattern west of the area will continue to move in closer to the Central Plains region. As a result, more thunderstorm activity will look to come again Sunday evening and night. The main uncertainty for where storms may initialize Sunday will be the north to south positioning of the surface low. The placement of the low will overall control where the fronts align and where the strongest lifting mechanisms will settle (cold front, warm front & dryline). Based on the latest trends, a more northward shift of the low hints at a further northward concentration of storm activity (best potential north of I-80). An enhanced risk of severe weather currently resides over all of south central Nebraska and far northern central Kansas with a slight risk covering the rest of our north central Kansas areas. Beyond the storm chances Saturday/Sunday nights, temperatures will likely fall a few degrees shy of today on Saturday (highs in the mid 80s to low 90s) with a few more clouds and slightly stronger east to southeast winds (10-15 MPH with gusts as high as 25MPH). Even stronger southerly winds will be possible Sunday afternoon for mainly the southeast 2/3rds of the area (20-30MPH with gusts as high as 35-45 MPH possible). Even despite the weekend moisture resurgence, near-critical to critical fire weather concerns could still be possible across a few southern portions of the area (driest conditions towards the southwest). Highs Sunday will spread the upper 80s and 90s (mid to upper 90s for locations south and east of the Tri-Cities). && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 234 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026 A weak inverted surface trough is working into south central Nebraska and north central Kansas late this afternoon. Moisture has increased slightly ahead of that feature with dewpoints near 50 degrees along Highway 24 in north central Kansas. High clouds spilling east have taken the top end off the temperatures today though it is still warm and above normal. To that end, there is some risk of an isolated storm, mainly across north central Kansas either side of 6 PM. However, shear is weak and warmer mid-level temperatures don't help. So, anything that does develop will be very limited in scope/coverage, and likely only marginally strong/severe at most. Higher-based wind producers would main hazard. Friday is well above normal again with highs in the lower 90s as the region catching much more sunshine that today, though less wind. Winds will shift late in the afternoon across northern areas as front sags south. That front has bit more push than today, and will have more low level moisture as well. Areas east and south of Hastings look like a more favored area for a stronger/severe storm with both hail and wind the primary factors. The window of opportunity is fairly small, probably about 4-5 pm to 8-9 pm before storms move east and the surface front retreats. The weekend is interesting from a weather standpoint, but also wrought with uncertainty. Most of the area is currently included in a slight to potentially enhanced risk of severe weather. The upper pattern is more favorable as a trough moves into the Rockies providing better dynamics and shear. Low level moisture will also increase though it could be a limiting factor at times, especially given the ground is so dry in some areas thanks to D3/D4 drought. While there are substantially higher rain...and there will be rain...it may not rain everywhere, nor is it a rain out. In fact, we are forecasting near 100 degree temperatures Sunday, and that doesn't exactly say lots of clouds/rain. Right now, the favored times for storms are Saturday night and Sunday night, while the days trend toward more dry. Saturday night seems to have the best potential for an organized line of storms or series of storms with severe potential. There is lots of uncertainty with this forecast and it is going to change with time so stay tuned. The other thing of interest, but also uncertainty, is the heat and potential fire weather concerns Sunday afternoon. Even with green up in some areas, the 100 degree heat potential would translate into extremely low relative humidity Sunday afternoon along with strong winds. However, if convection from the previous night/early morning areas occurs, it could alter the low level moisture/wind set up. Still 72 hours away, this is something to watch with time. FYI, the current high temperature forecast for Sunday would be record breaking for Grand Island and Hastings. On Monday, a strong front moves through and that could bring one final opportunity for more organized thunderstorms. After that, temperatures are much closer too or even below normal for the middle of next week. Rain chances will be retreating at the same time. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 102 AM CDT Fri May 15 2026 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: Prevailing VFR conditions anticipated through the period with mostly clear skies expected to prevail overnight along with light winds. Expect a weak front to approach from the north late in the afternoon...with a PROB30 group introduced for KGRI starting at 15/23Z for some -TSRAs or -SHRAs that may impact the terminal. Further west towards KEAR, probs are even less, so did not introduce any potential activity there. Winds should be primarily southerly through the daytime hours at 12 KTS or less, shifting and eventually becoming northerly behind the frontal boundary late in the day. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ UPDATE...Stump DISCUSSION...Moritz AVIATION...NWS Hastings