####018006876#### FXUS63 KGLD 070816 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 116 AM MST Sun Dec 7 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Fog/Freezing Fog, some of which may be dense, this morning along and west of a Hitchcock to Wichita county line. A 10% chance of isolated freezing drizzle as well. May form a film of ice on bridges. - Similar weather pattern continues next week with a warming trend and breezy winds Monday and Tuesday. - Cooler weather will return after Wednesday with below normal temperatures for the end of the week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 114 AM MST Sun Dec 7 2025 A weak cold front is moving into the forecast area with stratus occurring just behind it. Have actually increased low temperatures for the night across the northeast as the cloud cover should help to insulate the surface and keep temperatures from falling to much. To the west of the stratus (mainly along and west of a Hitchcock to Wichita county line) could see some fog develop along and just behind the front as it continues to move to the southwest. Further west of that some subtle moisture advection is ongoing and is forecast to lead to additional fog development as well. Should any of this fog form then freezing fog will become a concern leading to slick roadways especially elevated surfaces. Some of this fog may be dense but as what the similar discussion mentioned the overall depth of the saturation level isn't overly impressive or very shallow. Do think there will be some isolated instances of dense fog however. Am continuing to see some weak surface omega around 1 microbars along with isentropic lift in the 285K level leading to some concern that freezing drizzle could be in store for counties mainly along the Kansas/Colorado state line and as far east as Highway 25 but that will be dependent on how far west the front does end up pushing. Using REFS ensemble soundings the majority of the members keeps the entire profile below the 0C line with the average being -0.7C so still very close; but overall further lowers my confidence in freezing drizzle occurring this morning. Confidence in freezing drizzle is around 10% so will leave out of the forecast for now but will keep a close eye on the potential. Fog and stratus is forecast to move out of the area from west to east through the day and finally being out of the area by the late afternoon as a weak surface trough moves in from the west. Along the leading edge of the surface trough some additional lift around 750- 700mb may lead to some flurries or isolated light snow showers through the late morning favoring eastern portions of the area. Winds may become a little breezy across western portions of the forecast area gusting 25-30 mph. Highs for the day are forecast in the in the mid 30s across the east which are forecast to be engulfed in clouds for the majority of the the day to the mid 40s across eastern Colorado. Sunday night and into Monday morning appears to be tranquil as drier surface moisture again moves into the area. Some mid level cloud cover may develop with a weak disturbance but no impacts are anticipated at this time as low temperatures fall into the low 20s to upper teens across the area. Monday, another surface trough is forecast to be co-located across northern portions of the forecast area with breezy sustained winds around 15-25 mph gusting 35 mph during the afternoon. This is also forecast to be start of a few days of above normal temperatures as highs are forecast in the mid to upper 50s across the forecast area. Overall a tranquil mild day is in store for the area. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 114 AM MST Sun Dec 7 2025 Starting the extended period Tuesday, mild temperatures continue for the area with highs in the 60s as winds become more westerly promoting downsloping. Winds however are forecast to become breezy to gusty with some gusts up to 45 mph during the afternoon. A strong clipper system across the northern Plains is forecast to send a cold front through the day through the mid to late evening hours on Tuesday night bringing a chilly start to the morning on Wednesday. However another surface trough is forecast to impact the area Wednesday afternoon with downsloping winds helping temperatures warm back into the upper 40s to low 50s. Some light precipitation may occur across northern portions of the forecast area with rain during the day when temperatures warm back above freezing and then becoming a rain/snow mix during the night. At this time the better forcing looks to remain north of the area so little to no accumulation is expected and any impacts would be minimal. Late week, yet another clipper system is forecast to move across the northern Plains but be a little further south than the previous one and accompanying with it a stronger cold front. precipitation chances look a bit more optimistic with this system but still tons of discrepancies are seen between each of the members of the GEFS, ECWMF and ECMWF-AIFS on the amount of moisture present and the trek of a shortwave, with the GEFS a bit more optimistic on precipitation coverage due to more ensemble guidance moving the shortwave over the forecast area. However any snow output on the members that do produce precipitation looks to be light. This is also further supported by the 00Z run of the LREF with around a 30% chance for 0- 1 inches of snowfall. Much colder air is looking more and more likely with this system as high temperatures Friday may struggle to get out of the 20s across much if not all of the area as 850mb temperatures fall into the -8 to -12C range across the area. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1011 PM MST Sat Dec 6 2025 Stratus and MVFR ceilings are forecast to be in place over the MCK terminal to start the period with eventual IFR ceilings taking place. Some fog is possible but at this time not forecasting anything lower than 3SM due to the stratus in place. GLD however has a bit better potential for fog and freezing fog especially closer to 12Z. There is a 10-20% chance for dense fog as well along with 20-30% chance for ceilings falling below airport minimum. Remain aware for icing. Conditions for each terminal are forecast to improve with GLD first and then MCK during the afternoon as the stratus leaves. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Trigg LONG TERM...Trigg AVIATION...Trigg ####018009741#### FXUS62 KRAH 070817 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 315 AM EST Sun Dec 7 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A front will hold to our southeast through the rest of the weekend, as weak high pressure settles over North Carolina and the Mid Atlantic region. An Arctic cold front will move southeastward through the area on Monday, while an upper level disturbance passes overhead. Chilly high pressure will build in from the north Monday night and Tuesday, then move to our southeast, allowing a southwest flow and milder temperatures to return for Wednesday and Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/... As of 200 AM Sunday... * Fog/stratus through the noon hour, then trending gradually to partly cloudy in the afternoon, but uncertainty is high. * Not as chilly as yesterday, but still below normal. * Clouds increase overnight, with a little light precip spreading into the Piedmont from the W late. We'll stay in a fast and flat WSW steering flow today, while at the surface, weak high pressure analyzed over NC and the Mid Atlantic holds in place before drifting offshore late. The most noteworthy issue today is determining when the morning fog and stratus will most likely burn off. The mid and upper levels will briefly dry out Sun behind the departing weak mid level perturbation and upper jet streak pushing ENE off the Mid Atlantic coast, which should allow some insolation that might help burn off the fog/stratus from the top. But with weak surface flow to inhibit horizontal mixing, and with steady slow warming taking place just aloft (~925-900 mb) helping to reinforce the surface-based stability, we could see low clouds hanging on in most areas well into the afternoon. Even if some of the area sees at least a few hours of partial sunshine prior to sunset, it may not be enough to warm up temps much. As such, forecast high temps today will be a few degrees below yesterday's expectations, mainly in the upper 40s to around 50, warmer than Sat but still below seasonal normals. Our attention then turns to a shortwave trough over WY/CO early this morning that will shift through the Mid Miss Valley and across TN toward W NC through tonight, propelled by energy diving into the trough from the Upper Midwest. This trough will be associated with an Arctic cold front that will move into the Mid South, Ohio Valley, and central Appalachians overnight. High and mid level clouds are expected to spread in from the west starting in the evening, and we'll see a trend toward weak mid level DPVA in our west late, but there's little opportunity for substantial moisture return into our area through the lowest several thousand ft AGL. PW does inch up across W NC late, but values are still near or just slightly above normal, thus any mechanisms to force ascent will need to work on what little moisture is attending the system. Will have mostly low chance pops spreading into the W CWA late, and given the stubborn pocket of drier low level air, any amounts initially should be very light. Based on high res guidance, there is a high chance for ice in the clouds, and if any of these hydrometeors can survive the layer of drier air just off the surface (in a seeder-feeder process), we may see a little light snow mixed in with light rain at the ground toward morning. But overall, the expected surface wet bulb temps are likely to be just above freezing through the night, favoring just liquid for ptype through tonight. Lows across the CWA will be around 31-36. -GIH && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 240 AM Sunday... * Chance of precipitation areawide Mon, likely mixing with then changing to a period of all snow before ending, especially across the N and W. * Precip amounts should generally be under a quarter inch liquid equivalent, suggesting that any snow accumulation would be mostly under an inch given the initial rain/snow mix, but stay tuned. Forcing for ascent focused in the mid and upper levels should continue to ramp up early Mon as the aforementioned trough approaches, but the incoming PW values will likely be just near normal and falling further late in the day as the mid-upper levels start to dry out. But forecast soundings show at least a few hours in which the column is saturated or nearly so throughout the mixed phase region aloft down to the surface, occurring in conjunction with peak mid level DPVA from late morning through late afternoon W to E. The incoming Arctic front is expected to push SSE through central NC in the afternoon, so the coldest air may be chasing the better moisture to some degree during the morning hours, particularly if the higher terrain manages to delay the coldest and most dense air for a few hours. But we're still likely to see an atypical temp trend with surface temps falling in the afternoon, and confidence is increasing that we'll see at least a couple of hours of predominant light wet snow over all but the far S and SE CWA Mon afternoon as the low levels cool, with accumulations potentially limited by the initial rain/snow mix, the surface temps sitting near or slightly above freezing for much of the day, and the modest PW values. Model agreement is good in showing a thermal pattern supporting patchy light rain chances at onset, followed by good chance to likely pops for a light rain/snow mix, then changing to mostly light snow before ending in the late afternoon or very early evening, with no reasonable chance of any icing or freezing precip. Total accumulation should range from a trace along and N of a line from the Triad to near Goldsboro, ranging to one half to just under one inch near the VA border. Expect highs in the upper 30s to mid 40s early, with readings falling through the 30s in the afternoon. Cold lows Mon night in the mid teens to low 20s will lead to minimum wind chills in the teens in most places overnight into Tue morning. While any lingering precip on the ground will begin to dry out overnight, we'll be lacking a strong wind to aid in the drying process, and there is a good chance in a flash freeze with areas of black ice developing, which would cause travel concerns late Mon night into early Tue. -GIH && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 315 AM Sunday... * Continued chilly Tue/Tue night, then moderating Wed/Thu before dropping back well below normal by Sat. * Precip chances are looking a bit higher for Thu night through Fri night. The rest of the week appears mostly tranquil, continued chilly Tue but with temperatures trending back closer to normal as the air mass moderates and the surface high slides to our SE. Models indicate another round of Arctic air pouring into the Upper Midwest Wed and through the Great Lakes region and into New England Thu, leading to a renewed digging of longwave troughing over the central and eastern CONUS. WAA and moisture advection ahead of the incoming associated surface cold front favor rain chances moving into the NW CWA late Thu then spreading areawide Thu night through Fri before exiting to the E Fri night. We may again see a period of changeover to snow before ending Fri night, esp across the northern CWA, as the cold front drops SSE through the area. After chilly highs in the low to mid 40s Tue, temps should return closer to normal for Wed/Thu, then trending cooler Fri (with specifics dependent on the frontal timing) and quite chilly Sat with highs expected to be only in the upper 30s to mid 40s. -GIH && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 1250 AM Sunday... * Dense fog this morning, followed by slowly improving aviation conditions today, and then another period of sub-VFR tonight. With no airmass change in the past couple of days, and none expected until Monday, dense fog has set in quickly across nearly all of central NC and will persist perhaps as late as 15Z this morning. With temps solidly below freezing across the Piedmont, many areas are susceptible to some freezing fog. Once the fog begins to lift, conditions should again be slow to improve today, with some guidance suggesting some sub-VFR ceilings at least temporarily lingering in the afternoon. Based on persistence forecasts, will lean toward the slow improvement today and indicate VFR potential after 18Z. Light and variable or southerly winds will prevail. Once again with the same moist airmass in place tonight, fog is a possibility, although high clouds streaming in from the SW ahead of an approaching upper disturbance may inhibit widespread dense fog. Outlook: A strong upper disturbance crossing the region on Monday will bring a mix of rain and snow, changing to snow in some northern areas before ending Monday evening. Chances of light snow are higher from INT/GSO to RDU and RWI. VFR conditions will then persist through much of early to middle of next week. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freezing Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST Sunday for NCZ007>011- 021>028-041. Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST Sunday for NCZ038>040-042- 043-073>078. Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EST Sunday for NCZ083>086-088- 089. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hartfield NEAR TERM...Hartfield SHORT TERM...Hartfield LONG TERM...Hartfield AVIATION...BLS