####018003134#### FXUS65 KMSO 140825 AFDMSO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 225 AM MDT Fri Aug 14 2026 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: - Rounds of showers and thunderstorms with locally heavy rain, the potential for debris flows, and gusty winds (mainly western Montana) through today. - Temporary relief from smoke with easterly winds. - Gradual warming and drying trend this weekend, daily thunderstorm threat continues. Scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms continued to redevelop and move over western Montana and north-central Idaho during the overnight hours into early this morning. Brief heavy rainfall and occasional lightning occurred with these storms. Lingering showers will continue to stream over western Montana through mid-morning. This afternoon, several rounds of showers and thunderstorms will impact the Northern Rockies and will likely bring isolated activity through the overnight once again. The main threat with these thunderstorms will be brief heavy rainfall. Yesterday afternoon, thunderstorms produced up to 0.40 inches per hour, which can be expected with the thunderstorms today. The strongest storms are expected between 3 PM and 9 PM, bringing a threat for debris flows and excessive runoff to flood-prone areas of northern Lemhi County and burn scars in the southern Bitterroot Valley. A Flash Flood Watch may be needed to highlight areas at most risk for impacts this afternoon and evening. Gusty and erratic winds between 30-40 mph will also be a threat, that could blow around unsecured objects and bring minor tree damage. A ridge of high pressure will rebuild over the Northern Rockies this weekend into early next week. Persistent southwest winds aloft will continue to bring moisture into the region, keeping atmospheric moisture high. This pattern will sustain daily chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms through next week, preventing a full return to dry conditions. Wildfire smoke will remain an ongoing challenge, with air quality expected to degrade slowly this weekend as southwest winds transport smoke plumes from source fires in eastern Washington and Oregon. && .AVIATION...Scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue to stream over western Montana and north-central Idaho through 14/1500Z this morning. Shower and thunderstorm activity will redevelop this afternoon and evening, bringing a threat for frequent lightning, brief heavy rainfall, and gusty, erratic winds up to 35 kts to all aviation sites across the Northern Rockies. However, KMSO, KHRF, KBTM, and KSMN will have the highest chance for the strongest storms between 14/2000Z and 15/0200Z this evening. Persistent easterly winds have limited the impacts due to smoke from regional and local wildfires, but this is likely to change this weekend and early next week, when a southwest wind pattern returns to the Northern Rockies. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. ID...&& $$ ####018006929#### FXUS63 KDMX 140826 AFDDMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Des Moines IA 326 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - The heavy rainfall threat for Iowa continues due to ongoing convection with efficient rainfall production, and further still by convection expected tomorrow. - Severe weather is possible tomorrow, with damaging wind gusts and heavy rain as the primary threats. Large hail and a tornado or two are also possible. - The pattern remains active with storm chances through the weekend and mid next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 325 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026 Convection is ongoing across central Iowa which the HRRR has been struggling to assimilate over the past several hours (up to 06z/1am Friday). The Friday 00z suite of CAMs has the basic footprint down for the ongoing convection, however, they have been struggling with timing for convection. One potential reason for this is that CAMs are not properly modeling the Elevated Mixed Layer (EML). Model soundings suggest decent capping up to around 700mb. Looking at mesoanalysis, these storms are forming in an area with decent deep moisture convergence. The expectation through the night is that these storms will continue to develop and push to the north/northeast into the mid to late morning hours. Models show the low level jet weakening around 12z/7am, which would lead to any remaining convection decaying as it loses its forcing. Until that happens, the ongoing convection will have fairly high rain rates, as they are not moving particularly quickly. SO far, these storms have already produced over 1in of rainfall in an hour, with one swath of just over 2in in an hour. Unseasonably high dewpoints and PWAT values exceeding 2in aid to the heavy rainfall potential, however, with convection being elevated updrafts would not be as deep to take advantage of the whole warm cloud layer (around 13500ft). Due to the poor representation of ongoing convection, more uncertainties crop up as we move through the day today, where the bulk of our heavy rain potential lies. In central Nebraska, an MCS driven by a shortwave is in the process of decaying. As it decays, an associated MCV will move towards Iowa which will serve as the focus point for the next round of storms. There is some severe potential with convection in the afternoon, given decent shear (25- 35kts) and a strong push of instability into Iowa. Damaging winds looks to be the primary threat, with large hail and a tornado or two possible. See SWODY1 for details. The uncertainties are with the location of the MCV and how convection behaves as it forms. The most likely scenario is cells that quickly grow upscale before moving east along the instability gradient that sets up, which looks to mainly be south of the Highway 20 corridor. The northward or southward extent of this line will have implications on which areas receive the most rainfall. As mentioned before, PWAT values are quite high and there is another push of moisture through the day. This, combined with warm cloud depths will lead to efficient rainfall production. As the MCS exits the area, the rest of tonight looks to be fairly dry. Most of the day tomorrow will be fairly dry before more shower and thunderstorm chances return Saturday night into Sunday morning. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 252 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026 The ring of fire pattern continues through Saturday night. PWATs over 2" linger until a cold front sweeps through Sunday morning. GEFS/EPS guidance highlights Saturday into Sunday morning as another period of storm chances, with similar potential for marginal severe chances and flash flooding as we have seen most of this week. High pressure and drier canadian air may bring a brief break from any rain chances before the ridge breaks down a bit and shortwaves and enhanced flow return to our part of Midwest by midweek. This will need to be monitored for renewed severe weather and heavy rain concerns. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1038 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026 Storms lifting northward out of Kansas, along with additional t-storm development associated with the low level jet, will begin to impact the KDSM/KOTM terminals after 08Z tonight. Storms will then continue to lift n/newd and impact KFOD/KALO and possibly KMCW between Expect decreasing CIGs to MVFR to IFR, with occasional lower VSBYs with heavier thunderstorms. After the initial round of storms, persistent MVFR to IFR may linger through the day, especially in the north through the afternoon. There is a chance for additional thunderstorm development tomorrow afternoon and into tomorrow tonight. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 326 AM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026 Periods of heavy rainfall remain possible through tonight. Cumulative impacts from several rounds of moderate to heavy rainfall beginning Thursday morning and another round currently ongoing across central Iowa followed by more storms later today and tonight. These may lead to river and/or flash flooding and certainly will lead to significant ponding. WPC has carried the previous Day 2 excessive rainfall outlook (ERO) to moderate risk for Today into the Day 1 outlook and includes much of central and southern Iowa. The primary concern with the current convection is it is moving across areas that received 2-4 inches of rainfall less than 24 hrs ago. In addition, this heavy rain may move into the Des Moines metro and lead to urban impacts. Will also be monitoring Walnut Creek, which responded to the previous rainfall and reach action stage. Additional heavy rainfall will increase the potential for flooding along these faster responding streams including Walnut Creek. Little change regarding the potential for river flooding, as significant within-bank rises are still expected on many streams. At least isolated to scattered minor river flooding is possible, with more significant flooding possible as well. Since QPF will be around rainfall-runoff inflection point, just a little more QPF than forecast may produce more significant flooding. For example, if QPF averages around 0.5 to 1 inch more than forecast, then widespread minor river flooding with multiple locations seeing moderate or possibly major flooding may occur. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch through Saturday morning for IAZ023>028-033>039- 044>050-057>062-070>075-081>086-092>097. && $$ SHORT TERM...67 LONG TERM...De Bruin AVIATION...Fowle HYDROLOGY...Donavon/Zogg ####018005420#### FXUS63 KLBF 140826 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 326 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Moderate confidence in some isolated to scattered thunderstorms this evening with a heavy rain and flooding potential. - Moderate confidence in strong to severe thunderstorms again Saturday night with a marginal severe risk and continued heavy rain concerns. - The unsettled pattern continues into early next week, with near daily threats for showers and thunderstorms continuing across the area. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 325 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026 Showers and thunderstorms are currently expected to develop across Kansas and push northward into Nebraska through the early morning hours. While the best instability exists to our south and east, some weak instability is present over southwest and into central Nebraska which should provide a favorable environment to sustain at least a few stronger to briefly severe storms. Some hail as well as damaging wind gusts will be possible, although heavy rainfall will likely be the main concern with this activity. At this time, not anticipating widespread flooding, but some area creeks and streams could see rises leading to some localized minor flooding, especially in ditches and low lying areas across areas that have seen some heavy rain the past few days. Lingering showers will likely continue through Friday morning mainly east of US-183. The next round of thunderstorms arrive Friday evening, after 6pm CT. Thunderstorms will develop across the Panhandle before pushing eastward into the overnight hours. Models are inconsistent in placement and development of these storms and therefore confidence is on the lower end. Regardless modest instability will be present across the region which should support at least some stronger storms, but also a few severe storms. Hail will be a threat initially, but as the low level jet intensifies overnight, the potential for damaging winds as well as heavy rainfall will increase. Again, some localized flooding may be possible especially in urban areas as well as some of the locations that have seen significant QPF over the last several days. However, a lot will depend on the speed of the storm track and whether rainfall can accumulate in one area to add to a flooding concern. A repeat of the past couple days will persist into Saturday, with a mostly dry forecast throughout the day and isolated thunderstorm chances returning by the afternoon and into the evening as peak heating occurs and instability hits a maximum. Ample instability will exist across southwest and into central Nebraska which should support at least a few severe storms across the region. As with previous days, hail and strong winds will be the primary threats with these storms. Storms will persist through the overnight hours before diminishing by sunrise Saturday morning. As far as temperatures go, highs will remain below normals through the early weekend ranging from the mid 70s to the mid 80s both today and Saturday. Overnight lows will remain near normals, dropping into the upper 50s to low 60s through Saturday night. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 325 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026 The active pattern looks to continue as we head into Sunday and early next week, within strong and persistent west-northwest flow aloft. Guidance suggests more than a few shortwaves will progress through the mean flow aloft, with a near daily threat for showers and thunderstorms across the area. That said, the transition from southwesterly to west-northwest flow aloft, the area loses it monsoonal moisture tap. This leads to PWATs falling below the highly anomalous levels seen much of the past few days. Still, with strong flow aloft and adequate instability, some threat for strong to severe storms will likely continue into early next week as well. Temperatures look to remain near to below average each day for Sunday and into next week, with daily highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. The exception to this looks to be Tuesday at this time, with strong warm advection ahead of an approaching frontal boundary boosts highs into the upper 80s to near 90 degrees. Regardless, the upcoming week looks to continue to be a reprieve from the hot conditions we saw earlier this week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1235 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026 Thunderstorms will impact southwest into central and north central Nebraska terminals through sunrise, with brief MVFR visibilities and gusty, erratic winds. Otherwise, widespread low stratus and patchy fog will lead to widespread MVFR/IFR CIGs and visibility. Some threat for locally LIFR CIGs is possible as well. Gradual improvements back to VFR are expected for all terminals by early this afternoon. Winds become light and variable this morning outside of thunderstorms, at 5kts or less. Winds then become southerly this afternoon, at 5 to 10kts. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Kulik LONG TERM...Brown AVIATION...Brown ####018004300#### FXUS61 KCLE 140827 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 427 AM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Heavy rain is possible from Marion to Mount Vernon early this morning. The PoP forecast for Saturday night into Sunday has been increasing as confidence in location and timing improves. A small area (approximately Findlay to Marion) was upgraded to a Slight Risk for severe weather Saturday night. There is a slight risk (level 2 of 4) for excessive rainfall on Saturday for most Ohio Counties (excluding far northeast Ohio). && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue through today near and south of the US-30 corridor. Heavy rain is possible from approximately Marion to Mount Vernon this morning. 2) Showers and thunderstorms will return Saturday night through Sunday. Heavy rain is likely Saturday night, with a few stronger storms possible Sunday afternoon and evening. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... A surface stationary boundary lingers over the lower Ohio Valley, though forcing in the 850-700 mb layer extends well north of this boundary. In the immediate near term, light to moderate rain showers have generally remained south of a Wood to Wayne County line. Showers should gradually expand northward to as far as a Toledo-Lorain-Akron line but the risk for heavy rain is likely to rain towards our southwest counties (Marion to Knox) where the latest HRRR cycles project an inch of rain. The risk for >2" of rain and subsequent flooding is low but not completely out of the question, so we'll have to monitor for that this morning. Rain showers dissipate through the afternoon and we should be completely rain free by around 21Z. KEY MESSAGE 2... The next period for unsettled weather will be Saturday night through Sunday as a low pressure system moves east across the Great Lakes. A stationary front lingering over the Ohio Valley will lift northward across the area Saturday night in response to low pressure tracking across the Great Lakes region. A period of heavy rain is becoming more likely Saturday night as a highly- anomalous moist air mass, characterized by PWATS exceeding 2.0 inches, which is approaching the climatological maximum, enters the area. There is a slight risk (level 2 of 4) for excessive rainfall and a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather Saturday night with a slight risk (level 2 of 5) from Findlay to Marion. The latest model guidance continues to be trending the strong to severe storm threat further south of the area as any redevelopment in the afternoon will likely focus along the residual boundary from the overnight convection. && .AVIATION /06Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/... Light rain showers are sweeping southeast across southern terminals. Areawide VFR conditions will deteriorate to MVFR, with patchy IFR, in patchy fog and low ceilings. Highest confidence in MVFR or lower will be across inland terminals in western and central portions of the airspace. Expect for any reductions to improve after daybreak this morning. Light and variable winds overnight tonight will become east- northeast while increasing to 5-10 knots this afternoon. Outlook...Non-VFR possible in showers and thunderstorms Saturday afternoon into Sunday. && .MARINE... Weak high pressure builds across the Great Lakes today and tomorrow. Conditions should be relatively quiet through Saturday. Low pressure moving eastward across the Great Lakes region brings a warm front across Lake Erie Saturday night into Sunday morning, followed by a cold front Sunday evening into Sunday night. There is a low possibility for offshore flow reaching or exceeding 20 knots Saturday, though probabilities of winds > 20 knots and waves > 4 ft increase Sunday into Sunday night as winds become west to northwest. Will need to monitor the need for a Small Craft Advisory and Beach Hazard Statement for this period. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Saunders AVIATION...13 MARINE...Saunders