####018006592#### FXUS65 KPUB 131147 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 547 AM MDT Sat Jun 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm and breezy again today, with continued critical and near critical fire weather conditions. - Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, which continue into the overnight hours behind a stronger cold front. - Much cooler on Sunday, with good chances of showers and storms over and near the higher terrain. - Warmer, drier and breezy weather for the middle to end of next week will bring critical fire weather conditions back across south central and southeast Colorado. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 145 AM MDT Sat Jun 13 2026 Current water vapor imagery and upper air analysis has moderating westerly flow aloft across the region, as one passing wave is translating across the Northern Rockies, with another stronger wave digging across the Intermountain West at this time. Water vapor and satellite imagery is indicating an increase in available moisture across the Desert Southwest, with convective debris from Eastern New Mexico storms spreading across the far southeast plains at this time. Latest models are a tad slower with the stronger cold front, now pushing across the plains through the evening hours. This will allow for warmer conditions across the plains as a weak northerly surge through the late morning and afternoon helps to mix down warmer air aloft. Highs across the plains to be in the mid 80s to mid 90s with 60s, 70s and 80s expected across the higher terrain. Breezy westerly winds across the higher terrain and developing north to northeast winds across the plains, with develop critical and near critical fire weather conditions again today. The increasing slug of moisture from the Desert SW will offset critical fire extent, with Red Flag conditions still likely across the Central Mtns and portions of Pueblo county. Said slug of moisture will also help to develop isolated to scattered showers and storms this afternoon, with the best coverage across the southern mtns. The secondary, stronger cold front pushing across the plains through the evening, will push low level moisture back to the lower eastern slopes, with stratus developing expected across the plains overnight. Moist low level upslope flow, combined with warm westerly flow aloft, with keep chances of showers, and a few embedded thunderstorms, across the Eastern mountains and plains into early Sunday morning. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 145 AM MDT Sat Jun 13 2026 Latest model data continues to support cool, cloudy and stable conditions across the plains on Sunday, with increased available moisture leading to modest CAPE progged over the higher terrain Sunday afternoon. This, combined with another disturbance within the westerly flow aloft, will bring a round of widespread showers and thunderstorms across the higher terrain Sunday afternoon, with showers spreading east into the more stable atmosphere in place across the plains. Temperatures will be well below seasonal levels in the 60s and 70s across the plains, with 50s, 60s and 70s across the higher terrain. Moderate west to northwest flow remains progged for Monday and Tuesday, and will lead to temperatures warming back to at and above seasonal levels. There will be enough available moisture to support daily chances of showers and storms, with the potential for stronger storms with said northwest flow aloft. Increasing westerly flow remains progged across the region for the middle to end of next week, as upper level ridging across the Desert SW remains progged to build into the Rockies. Increasing flow will bring critical fire weather conditions back across portions of south central and southeast Colorado, along with temperatures back to well above seasonal levels, with triple digits readings possible across the southeast plains. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 539 AM MDT Sat Jun 13 2026 Conditions will remain VFR through today at all three terminals with -SHRA/-TSRA developing over the mountains and spreading off into the adjacent valleys and plains. While cigs will remain VFR, enhanced winds from outflows will dominate wind directions, especially at KALS. KCOS and KPUB should see predominantly north to northeast winds behind a front which could stall out over or near KPUB by late morning. This will lead to a difficult wind forecast for KPUB as winds will be westerly to the west of the front, and more easterly behind it. For now, have the front pushing through PUB between 16z and 18z and will need to make changes as the timing becomes more clear. -SHRA/-TSRA could affect both terminals, especially this evening into tonight as cigs drop into the MVFR to IFR category towards dawn. KCOS will see the lowest cigs with KPUB staying VFR to high end MVFR by dawn Sunday. -KT && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 145 AM MDT Sat Jun 13 2026 Breezy westerly winds across the higher terrain and developing north to northeast winds across the plains, will develop critical and near critical fire weather conditions again today. A slug of moisture from the Desert Southwest will offset critical fire extent, with Red Flag Warnings in place across the Central mountains and portions of Pueblo county from 11 AM to 7 PM. Said slug of moisture will also help to develop isolated to scattered showers and storms this afternoon, with the best coverage across the Southern mountains. A stronger cold front will bring much cooler conditions on for Sunday, especially across the Eastern plains. Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected across the higher terrain Sunday afternoon, with showers spreading east into the more stable atmosphere in place across the plains. A slow warming and drying trend remains in the offing for early next week, with increasing westerly flow aloft into the middle of the week bringing well above seasonal temperatures and the return of critical fire weather conditions. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM MDT this evening for COZ220-228. && $$ SHORT TERM...MW LONG TERM...MW AVIATION...KT FIRE WEATHER...MW ####018010544#### FXUS63 KSGF 131147 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 647 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Marginal (Level 1 of 5) risk for isolated severe thunderstorms overnight/early this morning. Elevated hail and isolated damaging winds will be the primary severe risk. - Enhanced (Level 3 of 5) risk for severe thunderstorms this afternoon through tonight. Damaging wind gusts of 70-80 mph will be the primary severe risk, with hail and brief tornadoes as secondary hazards. - A Flood Watch is in effect for portions of the area this morning through Sunday morning. Moderate (Level 3 of 4) risk for Excessive Rainfall through tonight. This is due to recent heavy rains, elevated streamflows, and saturated soils. - Active weather returns from mid to late next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 1230 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026 Overnight/Early this Morning: Shortwave energy coming off the lee side of Colorado Front Range supports a developing low across western KS. An associated warm front is lifting north with this developing low, and will meander through the area tonight. Warm air advection persists through the overnight in the vicinity of 1500-2500 J/kg MUCAPE and marginal deep layer shear. As the front lifts through, a few isolated showers and thunderstorms may develop, though likely remain elevated in nature. Most of this isolated activity will remain sub-severe in nature, though a strong to marginally severe thunderstorm remains possible as captured in SPC's Marginal Risk (5% chance). Primary hazards with any stronger thunderstorms would be penny to ping pong sized hail, with the wind potential fairly limited given the elevated nature of the thunderstorms. If a thunderstorm is able to root more to surface, a damaging wind gust of 50 to 60 mph is plausible. Additionally, localized heavy downpours would accompany any of the thunderstorms. In general, the coverage overnight through early this morning is expected to remain minimal, with many locations remaining dry. This Afternoon-Tonight: Following on the heels of the previous forecast, there were two scenarios presented on the potential evolution of Saturday morning into the afternoon. Given the latest trends, we are leaning towards a scenario where a strong cold pool is not in play. This would be a direct result of no MCS translating through the area on Saturday morning. Thus, the arrival of shortwave energy into the area by late Saturday morning into the afternoon should support additional clusters of thunderstorms to develop in an environment favorable for strong to severe thunderstorms. SPC highlights the severe potential with an Enhanced (3 of 5) Severe Risk draped across much of the area. The environment will be characterized by ample instability (MUCAPE 3000-4000+ J/kg) in the vicinity of deep layer shear 30-40+ knots. There will be some initial capping to erode, though should be overcome with the arrival of shortwave energy. Forecast soundings depict this setup, with hodographs even hinting at the potential for splitting thunderstorms. From a storm mode standpoint, some supercell structures remain in play, though most will quickly grow upscale into clusters/bowing segments. This can be gleaned from latest CAMs depicting scattered clusters of thunderstorms through the afternoon, with a few discrete cells. From a hazards standpoint, the environment supports large hail and damaging wind gusts with the afternoon round. Large hail looks to more favorable west of Highway 65, where the best mid level lapse rates (7.5 C/km) overlap the highest instability. Large hail parameter on the order of 8 to 12 suggests maximum hail size up to 2 inches or greater. Further east, the environment is a bit less favorable for large hail of this size, though quarters to golf balls remain plausible. As for damaging winds, this remains the greatest risk. Favorable parameters include Theta-E diffs of 30-35 K with strong 0-6km wind speeds overlapping ample downdraft CAPE. Strong cold pools will rapidly develop in this environment, supporting bowing segments and associated downdrafts. Damaging wind gusts of 60 to 70 mph can be expected within the strongest thunderstorms through the afternoon. A tornado threat remains low, but not zero across the Eastern Ozarks if any thunderstorms are able to maintain discrete. In addition, localized heavy rainfall and flooding is on the table as early as Saturday afternoon, especially if thunderstorms train over the same areas. Further discussion of potential flooding is captured below in the Hydrology section of the AFD. To summarize, the most likely scenario is scattered strong to severe thunderstorms through the afternoon, with lingering uncertainty on the extent of coverage ahead of the main event Saturday evening/night. As we progress into the evening, additional shortwave energy ejects across the Middle Mississippi Valley as a cold front dives south through the region. A potent line of strong to severe thunderstorms develops along the front and will set the stage for damaging wind gusts in addition to the potential of a few brief tornadoes. This complex is expected to rapidly evolve as it dives south-southeast through the area, with the primary hazard being damaging wind gusts of 70 to 80 mph. CAMs continue to capture this scenario fairly well, though subtle differences exist with the timing. The latest trends would suggest the complex enters the area in the early evening and exits early Sunday morning. This complex will have the capability of producing widespread wind damage. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 1230 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026 Quiet Sunday into Monday: West-northwest flow aloft will settle into the region with weak surface high pressure building in from the northwest. While a leftover shower will be possible (<20% chance) over southern Missouri in the morning, dry weather is primarily expected with variable cloudiness. Pleasant highs in the 70s will occur with a less humid air mass also filtering into the region. Cool conditions will then occur Sunday night as a surface ridge axis settles into the area. Lows over most areas will dip well down into the 50s. We will have to watch for some fog potential with winds become light on top of saturated soil. Monday will remain dry with shorter term ensembles showing strong consensus in high temperatures in the upper 70s and lower 80s. Dew points will remain in the lower to middle 50s keeping humidity values in check. Active Weather from Mid to Late Week: Global ensembles show fairly good agreement that an upper level short wave trough will dig southeast through the Great Lakes on Tuesday. A stronger wave is then forecast to dig through the same general region from Wednesday night into Thursday. The potential for showers and thunderstorms will initially increase on Tuesday as a warm front lifts north through the region. This front will then likely return south with that second wave and potentially stall somewhere across Missouri or Arkansas. Machine-learning convective outlooks indicate some potential for severe storms starting as early as Tuesday and persisting through at least next Friday. At this point, the highest probabilities are for next Wednesday and Thursday. With recent heavy rainfall, we will also have to monitor the potential for additional flooding. Temperatures will be highly modulated by coverage of storms and cloud cover in addition to the location of that front, especially from Thursday onward. Wednesday may be the warmest day of the week across much of the Ozarks with NBM spreads fairly clustered around highs in the middle 80s to around 90 degrees. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 640 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026 Morning convection is slowly drifting to the NW away from the TAF sites. Additional scattered storms are then expected this afternoon, some of which may be severe, but confidence in coverage and location is low at this time. Additional thunderstorms develop to the north and move through late this evening into the overnight. Confidence is higher with these storms, which may also pose a severe risk. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 1230 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026 Setting the stage, many areas across western MO and southeast KS have received over 2 inches of rainfall and localized areas received over 6 inches of rain in the past seven days. A Flood Watch is in effect for most of the area, excluding the far southeast Ozarks for a widespread 2 to 4 inches of rain with localized higher amounts. For elsewhere outside of the watch, those areas could see 1 to 2 inches of rain. Localized higher amounts are depicted with the latest HREF LPMM showing corridors 5 to 7 inches. The exact locations of these corridors will vary and will be best captured as the event unfolds. The Weather Prediction Center captures the heavy rain and flash flooding potential with a Moderate Risk (3 of 4) for today and overnight into Sunday morning. From a heavy rainfall/flood potential environment, the atmosphere will be conducive for efficient rainfall rates as PWATs push towards 2 inches. This will support rainfall rates of 1 to 3 inches per a hour within thunderstorms. It is worth noting that rivers are elevated going into this evening, with soil moisture between 20-40% for most areas in the Flood Watch. One hour FFG of 1 to 2 inches could quickly be exceeded as thunderstorms progress through the area. Given the setup in place, locally considerable flash flooding, along with "isolated moderate river flooding" (per the National Water Center) are in the forecast for today through tonight. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for KSZ073-097-101. MO...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for MOZ055>058-066>070- 077>081-088>090-093>095-101>103. && $$ SHORT TERM...Perez LONG TERM...Schaumann AVIATION...Titus HYDROLOGY...Perez ####018006299#### FXUS63 KGLD 131147 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 547 AM MDT Sat Jun 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered shower and storms are possible this afternoon and again overnight. Severe weather is not likely. - Expect cooler temperatures this weekend! - Wednesday's high temperatures may get to above 100 degrees and may pose a fire weather threat. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 112 AM MDT Sat Jun 13 2026 This morning, temperatures look to cool into the mid 50s to upper 60s. Warmer temperatures in the eastern CWA are expected as the slow moving surface low pushes additional moisture into the CWA. Saturday, a high from the northern Rockies looks to push a backdoor cold front into the CWA, allowing northeasterly winds to gust into the 25-35 kts range during the late morning. Gusty winds look to persist until around sunset when they will gradually weaken. RH values look to remain above critical levels, so fire weather concerns are minimal. The front may fire off some storms in the extreme southern CWA during the afternoon. These storms look to largely remain south of the CWA. Additionally, a shortwave trough looks to start some showers and storms in the southern CWA overnight. Severe weather looks to not be a major threat, but a strong storm may produce hail up to 1.25 inches and gusts up to 65 MPH. During the day highs are forecast to warm into the upper 70s in the northern CWA and low 90s in the southern CWA, while overnight lows look to cool into the upper 40s to upper 50s. Sunday, there is a 15% chance lingering showers persist through most of the day across the CWA. The winds finally take a break and gusts look to remain under 20 kts. Highs will warm into the low 70s. Overall, Sunday looks to be a pleasant, but overcast day. Sunday evening and into the overnight hours, a weak 500 mb low look to move across the Northern Plains, which may fire off some evening time convection. Most likely area that could see thee storms will be in eastern Colorado. Severe weather is not expected from these storms. Lows look to cool to around 50. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 233 PM MDT Fri Jun 12 2026 The upper pattern for Monday has a ridge off the Pacific- Northwest and over our area the flow is from the northwest. Monday's highs are forecast to be in the high 70s and some localized locations hitting above 80 degrees. The winds and gusts look to be calm and relatively tame. As for precipitation chances PoPs are currently showing 10-20% chance and with there being CAPE less than 1000 J/kg, these would likely just be pop- up rain showers if anything were to develop. Tuesday looks very similar to Monday, except the highs do warm up to the low 90s. The winds remain calm and gusts tame. Overall Monday and Tuesday look to be nice weather days. Wednesday, looks to have a concern for the high temperatures and potential fire weather. Currently they are in the range of the high 90s and potential low 100s. Guidance is showing there being a 20-45% chance of exceeding 100 degrees mainly for locations, south of I-70 and east of KS Hwy 27. The NBM and LREF's 90th percentiles are fairly close with 108 and 101 degrees respectfully. The lows for Wednesday are forecast to be in the low to mid 60s. There does look to be some Fire Weather concerns for Wednesday. The winds look to be from the west then shifting to the northwest. The gust are currently looking to be higher than 30 mph. Guidance is suggesting there being a 40-60% chance of exceeding 30 mph. The LREF does however show lower percentages in the 50s compared to the NBM. The gusts look to peak around midday and are focused on Yuma County and spread out to the bordering counties to the east and south. Moving to the Relative Humidity (RH) values, there is a fairly significant change in values. In the morning they are forecast to be in the 50-60% then come midday they drop to the low teens. Guidance is showing some uncertainly with exactly how long that period of low RH values sticks around however. Moving to GFDI, there are values there are a few brief moments where we have values in the 50-60 range but this is very localized. These conditions would lead to high fire growth. There could be Critical Fire Weather, however there is uncertainty with if all the ingredients for conditions to meet criteria will overlap. Currently 20-35% that conditions will meet Red Flag Criteria. As we move further through the week, the ridge looks to de- amplifies and the flow becomes more zonal. However during this period there are some signs there could be some embedded shortwave disturbances that could bring precipitation chances. There is some signal a cold front could move through early Thursday morning that would help keep temperature below 100 degrees. Highs for the extended part of the forecast look to be in the low 90s and winds relative calm to breezy. As for precipation chances PoPs currently are 10-30%. Friday has the higher chances with 20-40%. Looking at SFC-CAPE there is roughly 500-900 J/kg and the SFC-500mb Shear in the 20 kt range. This would lead to more rain showers than storms, but this is almost 7 days out and a fair amount can change. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 544 AM MDT Sat Jun 13 2026 Expect VFR conditions through the foreast period with only stray low-level clouds potentially impacting MCK through early this afternoon. Breezy north-northeast winds will affect both terminals with peak speeds around 25 knots. Skies will become clear to mostly clear by mid afternoon for the Tri-State region with winds gradually decreasing this evening and renewed cloud cover late as a weak disturbance approaches though no appreciable impacts from this feature are expected. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CA LONG TERM...Holdren AVIATION...WFO LBF/NMJ ####018006004#### FXUS64 KOHX 131149 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 649 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 642 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026 - Unsettle weather over the weekend with multiple rounds of thunderstorms possible. Highest chances will be Saturday mid- afternoon through Sunday afternoon. - Low chance for strong storms through the weekend, strong wind gusts will be the main concern along with heavy rain. - Continued warm and humid conditions through Sunday, then becoming cooler and less humid. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Sunday Night) Issued at 1100 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026 We will see a quiet and humid start to our Saturday but the forecast will become more challenging and uncertain as we head into the afternoon and evening. An MCS has developed over the TX/OK Panhandle and this is what we will have to keep an eye on for the short term. This MCS will move east overnight likely following an instability gradient running from northern OK east through northern AR into west TN. Models favor this MCS weakening overnight over OK and becoming an MCV. This seems reasonable but there is a low chance that it sustains itself through the night reaching TN late morning into the early afternoon. The most likely scenario is we see it weaken overnight becoming an MCV with thunderstorms re-developing over west TN during the early afternoon. The 00z HRRR grows these thunderstorms upscale rather quickly and has them moving into Middle TN late afternoon into the evening. The HREF is less excited keeping the activity more scattered which seems more likely. Either way thunderstorms are looking likely tomorrow mid-afternoon into the evening. Bulk shear will be 20-30 knots and we will see plenty of CAPE. Strong wind gusts will be the main concern with strong thunderstorms along with heavy rain. If we see the thunderstorms over west TN grow upscale, strong wind gusts will be more of a concern, if thunderstorms stay scattered strong wind gusts will be more isolated. It will be hot again on Saturday with highs pushing into the upper 80s to lower 90s and dew points will remain in the low to mid 70s. Unfortunately the forecast will remain very uncertain and active as we head into Saturday night into Sunday. Short waves will be spinning around an upper level low over Canada. This will kick off thunderstorms over the Plains Saturday afternoon with them likely growing upscale into an MCS. Similar to Saturday we will have to keep an eye on if this MCS holds together. The HREF has it weakening as it approaches our northwest counties late Saturday night. It will likely hold together enough to bring scattered thunderstorms to much of the area Sunday morning. Bulk shear will remain 20-30 knots but CAPE should fall off during the morning hours to keep the severe threat on the low side. If we would see any strong storms strong winds gusts would be the main concern. A low pressure system over Canada associated with the upper level trough will push a cold front into Middle TN Sunday. Showers and thunderstorms will likely re-develop along this cold front Sunday later afternoon and evening. It's uncertain where this front sets up but it will likely be south and east of Nashville when we see re-development. Ahead of the front the atmosphere will likely see enough CAPE and shear for a low end wind threat. Highs Sunday will be in the 80s. The front will push through Middle TN by Sunday night and we will see quiet weather settle in. Cooler and much drier air will start to filter in and we will see dew points go from the 70s into the 50s. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through next Saturday) Issued at 1100 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026 We are going to see a great start to the week with cooler and drier air settle in. Highs will drop back into the upper 70s to lower 80s and we will see dew points fall back into the 60s to possible upper 50s. That will be pretty nice for mid June. High pressure off to our west should keep us dry. Moisture will start to build back in Wednesday and Thursday as the Bermuda high starts to build back west. Shower and thunderstorm chances will return to the forecast late week as a short wave trough digs into the Great Lakes. A cold front may make it hear Friday/Saturday. Highs Wednesday will warm back into the mid to upper 80s and remain there into the end of the week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 642 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026 Lingering FG at CKV should improve shortly, all other TAF sites are VFR after patchy fog in the area overnight. Conditions are expected to be fairly quiet today with VFR and a light SW wind by the afternoon. However, the forecast gets tricky this evening into into the overnight as chances for SHRA and TS increase along with MVFR cigs. There's uncertainties about specific timing, so PROB30s are being utilized for now. Expect updates as new guidance becomes available. Winds will increase to 7-12 kts with higher gusts with veering to a W direction tomorrow morning as a front moves through the area. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 91 73 86 62 / 20 70 70 10 Clarksville 89 72 83 59 / 30 70 60 0 Crossville 86 68 81 58 / 0 50 80 30 Columbia 91 72 86 61 / 20 60 70 20 Cookeville 88 70 82 59 / 0 60 80 20 Jamestown 88 67 82 57 / 0 50 80 30 Lawrenceburg 89 71 85 61 / 20 60 70 20 Murfreesboro 92 72 87 62 / 20 60 70 20 Waverly 90 71 83 60 / 30 60 60 10 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Mueller LONG TERM....Mueller AVIATION.....Sizemore