####018004756#### FXUS63 KMKX 110915 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 315 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Light snow may just clip areas southwest of Madison tonight. Any snow accumulations will likely be under one half inch. - Light snow may occur Friday afternoon and evening, with the passage of an Arctic cold front. - An Arctic airmass is expected this weekend, with wind chills as cold as 15 below to 30 below zero for the overnight and early morning hours. && .SHORT TERM... Issued 315 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025 Today and tonight: Stubborn low clouds may hang on across much of southern Wisconsin through early to mid-morning. Models keep trying to show the clear slot expanding farther into the forecast area, but satellite trends don't reflect this potential through the next couple hours. Will continue to monitor the back edge of the clouds near Eau Claire this morning to see if there is a significant southward push. These clouds have kept temps from falling as much as expected across much of the area early this morning, so will continue to modify short term temps to match the slower exit of the clouds. High temps may have to be updated for today if the clouds hang on through early to mid- morning, as temps are trending towards starting out warmer at daybreak than the current forecast highs. Otherwise, expect quiet weather today under high pressure, with light winds through tonight. It sill looks like there could be a little light snow southwest of Madison this evening into early tonight, though some forecast models keep the snow completely southwest of the state. If the snow does sneak into southwest Wisconsin, only a dusting to a half an inch is expected. DDV && .LONG TERM... Issued 315 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025 Friday through Wednesday: Another shortwave is expected to move through Friday, with models still suggesting a little light snow possible in the afternoon and evening. Colder temps will move in behind this wave, with highs likely not getting out of the single digits over the weekend. Lows will be below zero at night, with wind chills of 15 to 30 below. Cold weather headlines will be possible both Friday night and Saturday night, with the coldest wind chills expected Saturday night into early Sunday. Another wave may clip the area on Saturday, with more snow chances possible, though latest forecast models largely keep the snow south of the state line. Winds will become southerly Monday into Tuesday on the back side of high pressure and as a trough of low pressure approaches from the west. This should result in warming temps early next week, with highs back around normal by Tuesday. DDV && .AVIATION... Issued 315 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025 Stubborn MVFR stratus may hang on across much of southern Wisconsin through early to mid-morning. Models keep trying to show the clear slot expanding farther into the forecast area, but satellite trends don't reflect this potential through the next couple hours. Will continue to monitor the back edge of the clouds near Eau Claire this morning to see if there is a significant southward push. Otherwise, expect quiet weather today under high pressure, with light winds through tonight. It sill looks like there could be a little light snow southwest of Madison this evening into early tonight, though some forecast models keep the snow completely southwest of the state. If the snow does sneak into southwest Wisconsin, only a dusting to a half an inch is expected. Some lower clouds may sneak into the southwest forecast area as well, especially if snow clips the area. DDV && .MARINE... Issued 315 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025 Northwest winds will continue to diminish today as high pressure around 30.1 inches moves in from the northwest. A period of west to northwest gales may return Friday night through Saturday night as a strong Arctic cold front moves through the region. Heavy freezing spray will likely develop during this period as the colder airmass moves in. Strong high pressure around 30.8 inches will then move southeast through the region Sunday and to the south early next week. Gusty winds may return early next week behind the exiting high. DDV && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.x.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee ####018008320#### FXUS63 KABR 110915 AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 315 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Wintry mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain expected across portions of mainly central and north central South Dakota, with mainly snow and some sleet expected across portions of northeast South Dakota now through late this afternoon. Ice accumulation of a few hundredths to a couple tenths of an inch expected across central/north central South Dakota. Snow accumulation will generally be around 1 to 3 inches across northeast South Dakota. - Another band of snow is expected to move into the area Saturday. There is still a lot of uncertainty in the storm track and amounts, but there is a 30 to 50% chance for central South Dakota to see upwards of 2" of snowfall accumulation. - A blast of very cold air is expected to bring temperatures 20-30 degrees below normal Saturday into Sunday. Highs will be in the positive single digits Saturday, while overnight lows Saturday into Sunday could get as low as -20 degrees. Wind chills of -30 degrees or lower will be possible early Sunday morning. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON/... Issued at 310 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025 At 3 AM CST, a few pockets of light snow were trying to happen between the James and Missouri River valleys. The main takeaway this morning, though, is the increasing/widespread coverage of freezing rain developing across western into central South Dakota beneath a large 150-170knot upper level speed max enhancing mid-level WAA/frontogenesis over the region. Temperatures throughout the CWA range from the single digits above zero over west central Minnesota to the low/mid 20s west river. Winds were southeast around 5 to 15 mph. No changes planned to the headlines. There continues to be some shifting/changes in placement/amounts of freezing rain/sleet/snow and their corresponding ice and snow accumulation footprints. Ensembles/deterministic GSMs/CAMs still generating a stripe of freezing rain ice accumulation in the 0.10 to 0.20 inch range, but have shifted things west, now centered along a line from near McLaughlin to Onida to Wessington area. Snow amounts have come up some (0.5 to 1.5 inches) across northeast South Dakota and a little bit further west in the CWA compared to 24 hours ago. Instead of canceling counties along the eastern edge of current advisory coverage, will leave in place for now, in case the next couple of iterations of guidance should "pendulum swing" snow/ice accum footprints back to the east. Should be seeing decreasing uncertainty as the event is beginning to unfold, but instead, models/guidance are still shifting things around. By 00Z this evening, today's snow/sleet/freezing rain event should be diminishing to scattered flurries/very light snow for several hours into the tonight period across north central and northeast South Dakota (minimal snow accum potential currently expected with any lingering overnight snow). On the heels of this event, low level CAA will commence, along with moderate pressure rises as surface high pressure begins to build into the region. As winds pick up to 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 35 mph ("breezy") out of the northwest, the blowing snow model is generating drifting to isolated blowing snow conditions sporadically across the CWA from west to east. Looks sub-advisory at this time, but will continue to monitor. Friday looks mostly dry and cold with surface high pressure shifting east in the region, as the next clipper low begins to work into the region from the west. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 310 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025 As the long term period begins Friday night into early Saturday morning, another band of precipitation will be moving into the forecast area supported by a jet streak aloft. Timing wise, precipitation will begin late Friday night and be out of the area by Saturday afternoon. The heaviest precipitation is expected between 00Z and 06Z Saturday morning. There is still quite a bit of uncertainty with the amounts and the track of this system, as both have changed significantly from the previous forecast cycle. In terms of forecast track, model guidance have continued to shift the axis of heaviest precipitation southwest over the past few cycles. The highest precipitation totals now sit over central South Dakota, but if this trend continues it is possible that the precip could shift out of the forecast area entirely. Snow is the expected precipitation type through the event, and the totals have increased over the past forecast cycle. 50th percentile values in the NBM have jumped up from around 2" at the most in the forecasts from 12 and 24 hours ago to 3-4" with the latest run. This increase in snow totals makes sense when looking at model soundings, which indicate that a deep, saturated DGZ extending from near the surface to ~600mb will exist. This will support the production of light, fluffy snow, with ratios up to 20:1 or greater possible. Looking at NBM's current 90th percentile as a "worst case scenario" shows about 6" of accumulation in central South Dakota, mainly in the Pierre area. With the continuing shift in the storm track and the uncertainty in amounts, no headlines will be issued at this time. However, should the track settle in and snowfall amounts either remain the same or increase further, a headline would definitely be warranted over central South Dakota. A shot of extremely cold air is expected this weekend, with 850mb temperatures dropping to -20 degrees Celsius in parts of northeastern South Dakota. This will push surface temperatures 20 to 30 degrees Fahrenheit below mid-December normals Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning. Highs Saturday will struggle to get above 0 degrees, particularly in northeastern South Dakota. Overnight lows will approach -20 degrees Fahrenheit, and a record low at Sisseton is very achievable (the current daily record low for December 14th being -20, set in 1989). With air temperatures so low, it won't take much to drop wind chills to be dangerously low. The latest long- range ensembles put the probability of needing a Cold Weather Advisory (-30 degrees wind chills) at 30-50 percent over northeastern South Dakota into western Minnesota. The highest chances are highlighted in the James River Valley. Next week, the upper-level ridge that has been in place will finally begin to transition east and flatten out, ending the parade of clipper systems the region has been under recently. Chances for additional precipitation appear low at this time. With this return to mainly zonal flow aloft, temperatures will warm up to become normal to above normal by mid-week (highs into the 30s and 40s). The entirety of the forecast area is currently expected to see above freezing temperatures by Tuesday, meaning that the existing snowpack will be able to melt. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1131 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG CIGs are expected to lower to MVFR/IFR through the TAF period along with the arrival of -SN/SN, with VSBY down to MVFR/IFR in heavier precipitation. -FZRA/FZRA also forecast to affect KPIR/KMBG, with perhaps sleet (PL) at KABR. Confidence on timing of precipitation arrival and changeover times not the highest, but best estimates are in TAFs. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...Ice Storm Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for SDZ003. Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for SDZ004>006-009-010-016>018-034>037-051. Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for SDZ011- 019>023. Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM CST /2 PM MST/ this afternoon for SDZ015-033-045-048. MN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...10 LONG TERM...BC AVIATION...TMT ####018006952#### FXUS63 KLSX 110915 AFDLSX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 315 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dangerous cold is expected this weekend. The most brutal wind chills will be north of I-70 Sunday morning. - Light snow will glance portions of northeast Missouri and central/west- central Illinois this afternoon into tonight. The chance of significant impacts is low, but a small shift southwest could result in accumulations of 1"-2". - Measurable snow is expected (80 - 100%) north of I-70 on Saturday. Any snow that falls will stick and cause travel impacts. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Friday Afternoon) Issued at 314 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025 The focus for today - Friday is the potential for light snow in northeast Missouri southeastward through south-central Illinois in a corridor roughly extending from Quincy, IL to Salem, IL and northeast. The clipper responsible for the snow has been trending southwest over the past day or so, placing the stripe of higher snow accumulations on our northeastern doorstep. The latest 00z 12/11 HREF notably does not continue this southwestward trend, and the 00z LREF actively pushes it back north. The majority of CAMs reflect this as well, having the snow gradient just along our border with higher reflectivity glancing in every now and again. This gradient is expected to be tight, so where it places does matter. The latest HREF LPMM gives us an idea of an "extreme" scenario. Currently this extreme is completely northeast of our CWA, which reflects the decreasing probabilities of 24 hour snowfall >1" (20 - 30% from 30 - 50%). However, the footprint is not gospel, and may (although not climatologically favored) still shift southwest. It would only need to shift a couple dozen miles to dramatically increase the chance of accumulating snow. In this case, 1-2" will be possible in the aforementioned corridor. Very brief periods of sleet are also possible with any snow that falls, but are not expected to cause impacts. Jaja && .LONG TERM... (Friday Night through Wednesday) Issued at 314 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025 A brutal, anomalously cold airmass will follow the Thursday night clipper. Temperatures will begin to fall as early as Friday night, but the brunt of the cold will be felt Saturday night through Sunday night with an emphasis on Saturday night. The once warming NBM has consistently cooled over the past 2 days, with KUIN dropping from a Sunday forecast high of 15-20 degrees to a new high of 9. Given the strength of the Arctic air (850 mb temps within the 10th percentile of climatology) and the strength of the surface high pressure (97.5th percentile of climatology), and the increasing likelihood of a snowpack, I think the NBM is on the right track, even if its Saturday and Sunday night lows are still above the 50th percentile. Despite potentially having more room to drop, Saturday's forecast overnight lows and wind chills will be bitterly cold. LREF probabilities of 6am Sunday wind chills <-10F have increased to 80 - 100% for nearly everywhere north of I-70/I-64. The chance of wind chills reaching -20F has increased as well, now 40 - 70% extending from about Kirksville, MO to Centralia, IL and northeast. There are also indications among guidance that Sunday night will be colder than currently forecast, but the chance of reaching -10F again is much lower. Daytime Sunday will not provide much relief to the cold. Highs at KUIN and KSTL are approaching record cold high territory, with KUIN forecast to reach 9 degrees (Record: 7 - 1989) and KSTL to reach 15 (Record: 13 - 1903). Wind chills around KUIN will remain below 0 for most if not all of the day, potentially creating an extended period of negative wind chills lasting from Saturday afternoon into Monday morning. Ahead of the cold is another chance of snow during the day Saturday with no potential for mixed precipitation. The track of this storm has shifted south and broadened in the past 24 hours. The ECMWF, GEPS, and Canadian all bring the system well into the northern half of the CWA with a 100% chance of measurable snow. Soundings show strong lift within a deep DGZ, and an isothermal layer just colder than the most efficient temperature range for maximum aggregation. This supports high SLRs and efficient accumulating where snow does fall. The LREF now shows a 70 - 90% chance of 1" of snow over 24 hours in portions of northeast Missouri and west-central Illinois, dropping to 30% when upped to 2". Given the LREF calculates these probabilities using SLRs = 10:1 and SLRs are trending closer to 15:1, I think the chances of reaching 1-2" of accumulation are higher. However, I don't have much certainty in exactly how much higher. Regardless, any snow that falls will stick and will not melt until early next week. The region will warm up quickly next week as mid-level ridging and low-level warm air advection take hold. Lows Monday night are forecast to be warmer than Sunday's highs. There is reasonably high confidence in at least some of the CWA reaching the 50s again on Wednesday, with the NBM 25th percentile high at St. Louis that day at 49 degrees. Jaja && .AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night) Issued at 1052 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 As of 05z this evening, an area of mid-level moisture continues to track southeast, parallel with the Mississippi River. This has pulled MVFR cigs back over the metro terminals, which are projected to lift back to VFR early Friday morning. Central Missouri terminals are already seeing mid-level clouds pull east with VFR cigs approaching from the west. The greatest potential for impacts, aside from MVFR cigs tonight, will stem from light snow Thursday afternoon and evening. The high cloud cover is at the leading edge of an approaching system that will focus most of the moisture from KUIN through interior sections of Illinois. Most of the snowfall is expected to be light with VFR cigs/vsbys. However, a brief period of MVFR conditions cannot be ruled out. There are also signs that a very brief pass of light snow may extend as far south as the metro terminals. This indication only appeared in the most recent hi-res guidance and the shift is minimal. Therefore, the confidence for any significant adjustments is low at this time. The environment will continued to be monitored in the event this is a sign of a shift in the track. Potential for impacts at the metro terminals remains low at this time. Maples && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX ####018006218#### FXUS65 KRIW 110916 AFDRIW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Riverton WY 216 AM MST Thu Dec 11 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Wind will gradually decrease today with a continuation of well above normal temperatures. - A cold front will approach northern Wyoming and bring mainly light snow, especially north of a Powell to Buffalo line. - Most locations will see a continuation of above normal temperatures into next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 210 AM MST Thu Dec 11 2025 If there is one thing that Wyoming is known for weather wise, it is the wind. The wind has been rather fierce around here for the past couple of days, with a few gusts to triple digits. Thank you to a tight pressure gradient and the area in the right front quadrant of an 140 knot jet. We still have a few gusts over 75 mph, mainly around Chief Joseph Highway. But the wind has backed off a few ticks in most areas early this morning. But this is by Wyoming standards, this would be very windy by most areas standards. And that is the main forecast predicament we find ourselves this morning. The high wind warnings will expire at 5 am this morning. General trends are for the wind to continue decreasing, as the jet is moving further north and the pressure gradient is beginning to relax somewhat. The 700 millibar winds are finally beginning to decrease, with all locations seeing them fall under 50 knots by around noon today. Probabilistic guidance also shows this trend, with chances of wind gusts over 50 mph falling to less than 1 out of 4 for most populated areas by noon. The exceptions are the usual suspects, mainly the south side of Casper and near Cody. Some of the deterministic MOS guidance does have a brief period of high wind around Casper this morning before decreasing in the afternoon. There could be a few stray high wind gusts at some of the mesonet sights, but these tend to on high rock bluffs away from populated areas and have little impact. We will likely let the warnings expire but this will be a game time decision as we still hold the right to extend them. The second enigma (a problem, not the German new-age band popular in the 90s), is what will happen tonight and tomorrow across northern Wyoming. A cold front will sag southward toward the area from Montana and likely bring some snow or rain turning to snow across this location. I do get nervous when I see a boundary with some jet energy here. Just about all guidance though keeps the best forcing over Montana and away from Wyoming. As for snowfall amounts, Johnson County will be the most impacted as far as the lower elevations. Chances of advisory amounts of snow are low though. At Buffalo, there is only a 1 out of 6 chance of 3 inches or more with around a 1 out of 3 chance of 2 inches or more. As for the mountains, the most would likely fall in the western Bighorn Range. A few locations have a 1 in 2 chance of 6 inches of more but these are the highest elevations away from the mountain passes. A small part of the northern Absarokas has a 1 in 2 chance of 6 inches of snow or more. However, this is also in a remote area and Beartooth Highway is closed for the season. So, no advisory here as well. The steadiest snow will fall from late tonight through Friday morning before gradually ending Friday afternoon. There is one more notable thing, high temperatures today. This will especially be the case across central Wyoming. The MOS guidance has high temperatures in the 60s in Riverton and in Casper. If it occurs at the Riverton airport, it would only be the fourth sixty degree high in December in almost 30 years, and the latest by nine days. In Casper, which has records back to 1939, it would only be the fourteenth time in station history. Most locations across the area will be 20 to as much as 30 degrees above normal for high temperatures. It will cool off on Friday behind the front, but most locations, except for where snow will be falling will remain above normal. Following that, it looks like we will enter into a quieter period. Flat ridging will build across the area and bring mainly dry conditions through Monday night. The next system looks to approach the state on Tuesday or Wednesday from the west. With this pattern, it would mean snow across the western mountains with favorable upslope westerly flow with mainly dry conditions to the east with downsloping. We could have another high wind event though, as the pressure gradient looks rather tight and a powerful jet, possibly over 150 knots, might be in place over Wyoming. It is still a long way out but the potential is here. With the westerly flow, temperatures look to remain above normal with no signs of Arctic air masses for the next seven days. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 945 PM MST Wed Dec 10 2025 VFR conditions at all TAF sites to start the period and much of Thursday. Windy conditions persist at COD/CPR/RIW overnight with a persistent westerly flow aided by a low level jet pushing over Yellowstone. Mid and upper level clouds throughout the period increasing in coverage late after 00Z with the next system. With that, winds stay elevated at all TAF sites, highest at RKS up to 30kts and other locations 18-25kts. With the aforementioned system skirting to the north, only COD will see a chance for snow on station after 03Z and into the next TAF cycle. Indications are for at best MVFR conditions with possible IFR after this point in time. Mid level ceilings at all other sites linger overnight into Friday before lifting and all remaining dry into the weekend. Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for the latest information on icing and turbulence forecasts. && .RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... High Wind Warning until 5 AM MST early this morning for WYZ019- 020-022-028>030. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hattings AVIATION...Lowe ####018009237#### FXUS63 KJKL 110916 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 416 AM EST Thu Dec 11 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Snow showers will produce spatially variable accumulations and localized travel impacts into Thursday morning. The greatest snowfall accumulation and impact will be above 1,500 feet where Winter Weather Advisories are currently in effect. - A clipper system is on track to produce more widespread winter precipitation on Thursday night into Friday morning. An additional Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for this over northeast Kentucky. - A much colder than normal airmass moves into the region for this upcoming weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1135 PM EST WED DEC 10 2025 Snow showers and squalls continue to move through eastern Kentucky late this evening but the intensity is expected to start winding down after midnight. Area web cams and the Jackson weather office parking lot indicate that the heaviest showers are capable of briefly coating the road surfaces but melt within 10 minutes. Expect some of this to stick better later in the night as CAA continues. Otherwise, updated the forecast with inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids along with PoPs from the CAMs and current radar images. These adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the zones, SPSs, HWO, and SAFs. UPDATE Issued at 705 PM EST WED DEC 10 2025 23Z sfc analysis shows cyclonic flow through eastern Kentucky - much of this coming off the open Great Lakes. As a result, there will be ample moisture for scattered snow showers through the rest of the evening and into the overnight hours. The tight pressure gradient from strong low pressure to the northeast of the area will keep winds brisk from the northwest through the evening while bringing in a colder air mass - as well as gusts to 30 mph. An SPS has been issued for this concern, outside of the current southeast Winter Weather Advisories, with more scattered activity and lesser wintry impacts anticipated. Currently, temperatures are running in the mid 30s west to the low 40s in the southeast. Meanwhile, dewpoints are generally in the low to mid 30s. Have updated the forecast mainly to add in the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. Did also touch up the PoPs into and through the night per the current radar and CAMs guidance. These adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the zones and SAFs. In addition, the 00Z guidance will be examined for possible adjustments to the forecast with that next inbound snow system - due here Thursday evening into Friday. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday) Issued at 253 PM EST WED DEC 10 2025 At current, a band of stratiform rain is moving across the area from the northwest, southeast towards the VA state line. Light to moderate rain is falling with this band and temperatures ahead of this rain remain in the upper 40s to near 50, while temperatures across southern Indiana, Ohio, and Northern Kentucky have already fallen into the upper 30s to low 40s. This cold front will continue to drop temperatures through this afternoon and evening, leading to Low temperatures in the upper 20s by Thursday morning. Over the next several hours, behind this band of rain, conditions will have to be carefully monitored for snow squall potential, starting around 9 PM through the pre-dawn hours Thursday. Conditions look at least plausible for snow bands to form, as winds become more northwesterly later this evening. Upslope snows are favored in this flow regime, along with lake-enhanced snows from Lake Michigan. The Snow Squall Parameter takes into account moisture in the lowest 2 kilometers, instability, by measuring the decrease in equivalent potential temperature (theta-e), and wind speed in the lowest 2 kilometers. A value of 1 or greater is said to indicate favorable conditions for snow squalls to exist. Looking at multiple short term CAM models such as the RAP13, the HRRR, and the NAM12, each model have a Snow Squall Parameter of greater than 1 across parts of the CWA, mainly east of a line extending from Lexington to London. In general, snow amounts should remain under an inch anywhere outside the current advisory areas. For within the winter weather advisories, under an inch in valleys, with up to 1 inch at elevations above 1,500 feet. For Letcher and Harlan counties, up to 2 inches are forecast, with localized 2-4 inch accumulations at elevations above 2,000 feet on and adjacent to Big Black Mountain. If a snow squall were to develop, areas within the squall could expect breif but intense snowfall causing near zero visibility and high snow fall rates leading to quick accumulations. Thursday, flurries may linger through the morning as the Wednesday system departs the area. Skies remain overcast with westerly winds generally under 10 mph. Temperatures will generally remain in the 30s through the day, with the next system quickly approaching Thursday evening through Friday. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 416 AM EST THU DEC 11 2025 The extended forecast window opens with lingering, post-frontal upslope snow showers stemming from Fridays preceding clipper system. Weak surface high pressure is forecast to build into the area, but this will be very short-lived as extended model guidance and associated ensembles remain in strong agreement and maintain consistency regarding a subsequent fast-moving clipper system. This second system is projected to track across the central CONUS, reaching the CWA vicinity by late Saturday night into Sunday. Very few significant changes have occurred with respect to the temporal and spatial components of this incoming feature. The PoP is expected to increase Saturday afternoon. This system is generally forecast to maintain a more northerly track. With this northerly trajectory, the heaviest precipitation is concentrated north of the CWA, primarily along and north of the Ohio River. However, of note, some model trends suggest a potential southward shift in the track, and a few guidance runs have hinted at this possibility. This potential shift would have significant consequences on anticipated snowfall totals, the placement of the freezing line, and which areas receive frozen versus liquid precipitation. Nonetheless, the highest snow accumulations are currently forecast along and north of a line from Powell to Pike Counties through Sunday morning, but this delineation could change should the feature shift north or south. Unseasonably cold surface high pressure will subsequently build into the region behind the departing low-pressure system on Sunday, advecting some of the coldest air of the season thus far through the early part of the succeeding week. A gradual warming trend is expected by the middle of next week, preceding the approach of another synoptic system for Wednesday. In summary, the period will be characterized by the passage of two distinct clipper systems. Lingering post-frontal snow showers will initiate the period from the first clipper, and a second fast-moving clipper is forecast for Saturday night into Sunday. There remains some uncertainty regarding total snowfall accumulations with the Saturday/Sunday system, but at a minimum, the issuance of Winter Weather Advisories will be necessary to cover this expected event. Strong surface high pressure will subsequently establish itself over the region on Sunday, driving minimum temperatures down to the upper single digits and mid-teens. A notable warm advection regime ahead of the next system is forecast to commence by Wednesday. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night) ISSUED AT 1200 AM EST THU DEC 11 2025 In the wake of the cold front that pushed through the area this past afternoon colder air continues to pour into this part of the state. Periods of IFR conditions can be expected with any brief squall type bands that pass through a terminal early overnight. Conditions will gradually improve during the day, Thursday. Brisk west to northwest winds slowly diminish overnight evening and overnight before picking up to 10 kts on Thursday. The next system will impact mainly northern terminals by the end of the period with lowering CIGs and the potential for visibility restrictions before midnight. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Friday for KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-088-104-106>115- 118>120. Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for KYZ086>088-110-113-115>118-120. && $$ UPDATE...GREIF SHORT TERM...GINNICK LONG TERM...VORST AVIATION...GREIF ####018003521#### FXUS63 KICT 110916 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 316 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Max temps today around 15 degrees above normal, with widespread 60s and some 70s even a possibly for areas west of I-135. - Cool down will commence on Friday with the main surge of very cold air moving-in Saturday afternoon through Saturday night. Highs on Sunday are not expected to make it above freezing. - We quickly get back to above normal temperatures for most of next week with the dry conditions continuing. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 316 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025 Currently have a shortwave trough stretching from Eastern Ontario, through the Eastern Great Lakes region and into the Appalachians. This leaves strong northwest flow through the Plains. At the surface, high pressure stretches through the Mississippi Valley with lee troughing from eastern WY into eastern CO. A series of upper perturbations, currently located over southern BC/southern Alberta, will track southeast and will be moving into the Mid Mississippi Valley by early this evening. As this occurs, lee troughing will continue to strengthen, allowing west and southwest downslope winds to overspread the forecast area this afternoon. Strong downslope will combine with unseasonably warm 850mb temps to boost maxes today into the 60s and around 70 for areas west of I-135 where mixing will be deeper. The record at KRSL will be in jeopardy today as it currently stands at 66 degrees. As the weak upper impulse continues to slide southeast, some cold air will start to spill south across the Plains on Fri. However, this is not going to be an abrupt cold surge, but rather a gradual cool-down with the more significant cold air still way north of the forecast area. There is good model agreement that a more robust upper impulse will track out of western Ontario and into the Northern Great Lakes by Sat morning. At the same time a fast moving piece of energy will track from Southern SK into the Upper Mississippi Valley. This will allow a much colder airmass to surge south for Sat afternoon through Sat night. We are still looking for highs on Sun to not make it above freezing, with some of our eastern areas not making it out of the 20s. Pattern will remain very progressive as the shortwave trough tracks off of the East Coast by Sun evening, getting the Plains back into northwest flow aloft. This will quickly push the colder air east with slightly above normal temps forecast for Mon with highs back into the 50s by Tue. The week upper impulse that was expected to move out across the Southern Plains on Tue has now taken a more southerly track. So still not looking for any precip through the next 7 days and likely beyond. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1054 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Light and variable winds will increase by mid to late morning from the W/SW with speeds 10-15 kt. CNU may see gusts up to 25 kt during the late morning and afternoon period. Winds will decrease to 8-12 kt by late afternoon. A weak cold front will begin to move across the terminals tomorrow evening, shifting winds from the N/NW. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...RBL AVIATION...BRF