####018005122#### FXUS63 KGRB 110929 AFDGRB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 329 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025 Forecast discussion for routine morning forecast issuance .KEY MESSAGES... - Light snow likely Friday. Though snow accumulations will be under an inch, the snow may result in locally slick travel. - Bitter cold this weekend. Daytime highs struggle to reach zero over much of central WI on Saturday. Wind chills as low as 20 to 30 below zero Friday night and Saturday night. Cold weather headlines will be needed. - Temperatures rebound next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 328 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025 Bitter cold this weekend is primary hazardous weather into early next week. Also, light snow Friday afternoon could cause slippery travel in some areas. Near term through tonight...NW flow in wake of the clipper system is bringing a few flurries to Door County and the lakeshore early this morning, with some clouds over the north and east. Colder today with highs mainly in the teens. Mid clouds increase this afternoon ahead of plains shortwave trough/warm front and banded snow. Bulk of snow remains well to the south, but enough lift and moisture in DGZ on the northern edge of system this evening to produce flurries in central WI. Light Snow Friday... Arctic front driving south across Alberta and Saskatchewan early today reaches the northern Plains late tonight, and crosses WI on Friday afternoon. The front with increasing lift in the DGZ will be sufficient to squeeze out light snow and flurries region-wide. Snowfall will be less than 1" but could lead to slippery travel. SW winds shift NW and will become gusty into Friday evening. Probabilities are 70-90 percent central to east- central WI for seeing gusts over 30 mph which may lead to some blowing, drifting of any fresh snow. Snow tapers quickly Friday evening as the front exits east. Hazardous Cold This Weekend... Bitterly cold airmass with 850mb temps down to -25c sweeps across the western Great Lakes this weekend. Peak of cold is Saturday. Highs on Saturday will struggle to reach zero in central WI, and even toward the Fox Valley. Record cold maximum temp at AUW on Saturday is 0 set in 1985. The forecast currently shows -2F. Maybe Door County will see double digit highs. Nowhere else though, even along the lakeshore. These values will be at least 30 degrees below normal. Bitter cold wind chills of 20 to 30 below zero are expected on Friday Night, then again on Saturday night. At the least, Cold Weather Advisories will be needed. But, risk of falling to Extreme Cold Warning criteria has also increased slightly for Friday night compared to what data showed 24 hr ago. Chances of seeing wind chills as low as 35 below zero over central WI are 35-55%, and are 30-40% Fox Valley to the lakeshore where criteria is 30 below zero. Due to potential for more clouds dropping across with shortwave trough, potential for reaching warning thresholds Saturday night are less than 15% across the entire area. Pretty impressive cold considering we are only into mid December. Temps on the rebound next week with small precip chances...What goes down must come up. That occurs in this case as sharply negative 850mb temp anomalies this weekend are replaced by sharply positive anomalies Tuesday- Wednesday of next week. Last time we hit freezing at GRB was November 26th. Appears we'll break this streak by Wednesday, when forecast points to highs in the mid 30s. Higher range of NBM highs suggests it could even occur on Tuesday. We'll have to see if this warmup will bring any of the typical warmup over cold ground/snowpack issues we can see such as fog and/or for "non traditional" freezing rain/drizzle (this occurs even as air temperatures are slightly above freezing as the ground is still quite cold). Leading warm air advection may produce some light snow Sunday night into Monday especially north. Next chance of precipitation would be midweek, with some potential for a wintry mix, before colder air returns. Plenty of time to sort out these details. && .AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1046 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 Low clouds were slowly departing central WI, but were spreading back into NC/NE WI late this evening. Will only carry MVFR ceilings at the RHI TAF site for now, but this will need to be monitored, as the clouds were not showing any signs of eroding as they pushed south. Will keep the low ceilings in at RHI until late morning. Otherwise, the rest of the forecast area will see a gradual increase in high/mid clouds across the area Thursday afternoon and evening. Northwest winds 5 to 10 kts are expected tonight, and these should become light and variable by late Wednesday afternoon and evening. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION.....JLA AVIATION.......Kieckbusch ####018004674#### FXUS63 KOAX 110930 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 330 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Light, mixed-precipitation is possible (20-30%) near the SD border into west-central IA through Thursday morning. Minor ice accumulation could lead to travel impacts there. - Another round of light snow is likely (60-80%) in northeast Nebraska and west- central Iowa late Friday night and Saturday. There is a 40-60% chance of minor travel impacts in those areas. - Temperatures turn much colder Friday through Sunday morning before warming again by early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 330 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025 Widespread radar returns continue across the area this morning, but ASOS/AWOS sites have reported almost no precip and a perusal of highway cameras has suggested less than 10% of the detected snowflakes are making their way to the ground. This makes sense as forecast soundings have indicated that the lowest 5kft will be saturating from the top down overnight. This precipitation is in response to warm air building in from the west. Temperatures at 2-5 kft will warm enough by daybreak to melt any falling snow before it finds its way to the surface. Surface temps, however, would be sub-freezing, especially if subjected to evaporative cooling. PoPs are highest along the northern tier of counties. Precip probabilities of 20-40% aren't high enough to issue a winter weather advisory, but confidence in the freezing rain p-type is notably higher than normal. Should that precip materialize, an advisory may be, well, well-advised. The best lift pushes northeast of the area by lunch today and light precip would end quickly early this afternoon. High temps in the northeastern corner of the CWA will peak only a degree or two above freezing. The southwest corner of the forecast area will push almost 30 degrees warmer. A cold front pushes through this evening, and will leave temperatures a little more uniform for the weekend. .Friday and the Weekend... Arctic air pours into the area as another Alberta clipper sweeps through the Great Lakes. Friday's highs will only peak in the 20s (north) and 30s (south). Another weaker clipper drives through the northwesterly H5 flow on Saturday, producing a stripe of frontogenesis and resultant potential snow across the High Plains. Confidence continues to grow that this band will impact northeastern Nebraska and west-central Iowa. Solutions have been trending farther south over the past three days. Current PoPs are peaking at 80% in our northern counties. NMB probabilities of 2" or more of snow are 50% or greater from Norfolk and Blair, NE and Avoca, IA and all points north. That chance is only 25% at Omaha as the forecast stands. The probabilistic Winter Storm Severity Index suggests a 60% chance of minor travel impacts in northeast Nebraska and northwest Iowa on Saturday. Winds won't be all that bad, but temps will slip lower. Highs will mostly peak in the teens and Saturday night's lows are progged to end up on the wrong side of zero. Wind chills could be as cold as -25 along the SD state line. Thankfully, this will represent the nadir of the forecast as upper level ridging begins to nose in from the west for early next week. .Next Week... Unfortunately, the ridge will be deamplifying as it approaches from the west as an upper low cross the prairie provinces of Canada. Still, temps will quickly moderate and push above normal by Monday and are likely to remain above normal for the foreseeable future. There is no strong signal for precip for next week at this point. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1043 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 VFR conditions should hold through the next 24 hours at all three terminals, with the main forecast point to keep an eye on being winds that have already begun shifting. KLNK and KOMA are expected to follow KOFK's lead in becoming southwesterly wind direction at less than 10 kts, with those winds expected to shift once again late afternoon tomorrow into the evening. Gusts are expected to develop with the northwesterly winds. CLouds should generally stay in the mid-to-high levels before lowering at KOMA/KOFK tomorrow evening as precipitation chances drift to the north of them. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Nicolaisen AVIATION...Petersen