####018004827#### FXUS62 KCHS 150117 AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 917 PM EDT Tue Jul 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... A Coastal Flood Advisory has been issued for the SE GA coastline and southern SC coastline for Minor Flooding forecast at the Fort Pulaski Tide Gage. Updated key message 1 and removed previous key message about today's rainfall potential. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Minor to moderate coastal flooding likely during the evening high tide cycles along the South Carolina and Georgia coast through Wednesday. - 2) Hot and humid conditions are expected to return to the area late this week through early next week. Heat Advisories could be needed. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Minor to moderate coastal flooding likely during the evening high tide cycles along the South Carolina and Georgia coast through Wednesday. High astronomical tides associated with Monday's lunar perigee and today's New Moon will continue, with a 6.57 ft MLLW tonight and a 6.46 ft MLLW Wednesday evening in the Charleston Harbor. We will likely see water levels peak in the 7.6-7.7 ft MLLW range this evening with a weak northeasterly wind aiding the increasing tidal departures. Peak water levels of 7.4-7.6 ft MLLW are forecast for Wednesday evening's high tide. At Fort Pulaski the high tide is forecast to peak between 9.6-9.7 ft MLLW (Minor Flooding). A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect for this evening's high tide for the entire coastline. Another Coastal Flood Advisory is expected Wednesday evening as well. If heavy rainfall were to occur near or during the time of the evening high tide cycles, flooding concerns would increase as total water levels would similarly increase. In the absence of strong tidal departures on Thursday, coastal flood issues are not anticipated. KEY MESSAGE 2: Hot and humid conditions are expected to return to the area late this week through early next week. Heat Advisories could be needed. Mid and upper level ridging is expected to build back across the Southeast later this week and persist through the weekend. Widespread low to mid 90s return to the forecast starting Thursday and extend through the weekend and into early next week. The low- level flow pattern around the subtropical high will help to drive elevated dewpoints across the region as well. This combination of highs in the low to mid 90s and dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s will yield elevated heat indices each day, especially along the coastal corridor. Heat index values of 105-110 degrees will be possible along the coast each day, and Heat Advisories could be needed. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... 0Z TAFs: A shower or two may pass by the terminals through mid- evening. Forecast soundings and MOS indicate that some restrictive ceilings may develop during the pre-dawn hours, TAFs will indicate MVFR ceilings at this time. Conditions should return to VFR once mixing begins by 14Z Weds morning. Given a coastal low nearby, warm and humid conditions, thunderstorms are possible Wed afternoon and evening along a sea breeze. The TAFs will feature PROB30 at KCHS and KJZI between 18-21Z and a TEMPO from 18-21Z. Extended Aviation Outlook: Shower and thunderstorm coverage is expected to diminish across the region beginning Wednesday evening. Low chances of thunderstorm impacts are expected through the weekend. && .MARINE... Tonight through Sunday: Quiet conditions with relatively light flow and seas around 2 feet will prevail across the local waters through Wednesday night as a weak boundary sits in the vicinity. By Thursday, this boundary will wash out and the subtropical high to the east will increasingly take control. This change will bring southwest flow to the region, turning more southerly each afternoon and evening with the sea breeze. Winds will be stronger during this time, with 10-15 knots and gusts up to 20 knots along the land/sea interface. Over the weekend, the gradient is expected to strengthen between an inland trough and the high to the east. This will produce stronger southwest to south flow, with speeds getting more into the 15-20 knot range and an increasing chance of gusts up to 25 knots, mainly for the SC coast and Charleston Harbor. We could even need some short duration Small Craft Advisories over the weekend. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for GAZ217- 219-239-241. SC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for SCZ148>151. MARINE...None. && $$ ####018007537#### FXUS61 KBTV 150118 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 918 PM EDT Tue Jul 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... As of 913 PM EDT Tuesday... A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for northern New York and Vermont in effect and is in effect until 4 AM. && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 306 PM EDT Tuesday... 1. Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected this evening into the overnight hours increasing the risk of damaging winds, hail, and localized flash flooding. Another front moving through Thursday will bring more chances of thunderstorms, but storm intensity will be lower. 2. A Heat Advisory remains in effect for much of the region despite wildfire smoke reducing temperature and limiting heat impacts to more of a marginal risk. 3. Seasonable temperatures and showers likely this weekend with possible thunderstorms, then another round of showers and potential storms early next week. && .DISCUSSION... As of 306 PM EDT Tuesday... KEY MESSAGE 1: Strong forcing is evident along a front slowly dropping south out of Canada where 2000-3000j/kg of CAPE is present. These CAPE values are also present over northern New York and Vermont waiting for a trigger to kick off convection. Fortunately, wildfire smoke has delayed heating while related particle physics has limited the pre-frontal risk of thunderstorms. This tamping effect will go away once the boundary approaches, but may delay more into the evening. We remain under an Enhanced Risk for severe thunderstorms which is at level 3 out of 5 - more uncommon for northern New York and Vermont. Current timing of storms remains 7pm to 4am with strongest storms more likely between 8pm and 2am as an EML drops southward. Given strong deep-layer shear and steep lapse rates aloft, supercell structures will be favored initially before a transition to bowing structures. Both modes could produce a tornado given the juiced environment that will persist into the evening with temperatures in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees and dew points around 70. Precipitation tonight may bring wildfire smoke down to the surface limiting air quality. A weak wave has become evident in CAMs and could produce a few showers or a rumble of thunder in northern Vermont Wednesday. Then, another front will drop south on Thursday on a similar track, but the preceding environment and stability parameters will be much less supportive of strong storms. Still some thunderstorms should be expected and those with outdoor plans should take precautions. KEY MESSAGE 2: Heat and humidity remain unusually high combining to push heat indices into the mid and upper 90s for some locations. As such, opted to keep the Advisory out, but may truncate the timing if temperatures flatline late this afternoon. Wildfire smoke is the culprit for limiting temperatures, but may still exacerbate impacts with some evidence of near surface smoke being reported. AQIs are still no unhealthy, but the combination of heat and increased particulates may result in issues for those unusually sensitive to these conditions. More smoke is expected to belch off the wildfires tomorrow and may result in continued moderate AQI with tempering of temperatures. However, conditions remain warm Wednesday before more seasonal conditions return for the end of the week. KEY MESSAGE 3: Longwave troughing will cross the region this weekend as two surface low pressures, one in the Great Lakes and one along the mid-Atlantic coast, will interact while tracking through the Northeast. Global deterministic models are fairly aligned in this idea at the moment, providing increased confidence of showers and thunderstorms Saturday afternoon into early Sunday morning. The probability of an inch of rainfall within 24 hours from this system is around 15-30%. More likely 24 hour amounts will fall somewhere between 0.05 and 0.25 inches. Depending on the storm track and timing of any associated frontal passages, the threat of strong to severe storms will be watched, but the threat should remain on the lower side due to a cooler and less humid airmass. Temperatures will remain around seasonal normals in the mid 70s to lower 80s both Saturday and Sunday with nighttime lows in the upper 40s to lower 60s. Next week should start briefly dry on Monday with temperatures increasing into the upper 70s and 80s, then another trough and northern stream low pressure swing through to increase chance of precipitation again on Tuesday. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Through 00Z Thursday...VFR conditions currently prevail across all terminals this evening, with westerly winds gradually increasing over the next few hours. An Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms remains in effect for northern portions of the forecast area (including KEFK, KPBG, and KMSS) with the threat for thunderstorms at all terminals expected tonight. It will cause frequent lightning, a period of MVFR to IFR visibility, and gusty/erratic winds at any terminal as thunderstorms move through overnight. Given the inherent uncertainty regarding thunderstorm location and timing, PROB30 groups were used to capture the most likely time period of thunderstorm activity, with shower activity likely exiting the region after 09Z. Surface winds are forecast to decrease tonight as precipitation comes to an end across northern New York and Vermont, becoming westerly to northwesterly 5-10 knots or less. Lingering moisture under a shallow, low level temperature inversion could lead to patches of mist and low clouds for a brief period following the storms and showers. Wind gusts will likely pick up again tomorrow afternoon, with VFR conditions expected. Outlook... Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday: VFR. Likely SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Saturday Night: VFR. Likely SHRA, Chance TSRA. Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. && .MARINE... A lake wind advisory has been issued for this afternoon through the overnight hours as southerly flow increases. Gusts up to 30kts are possible this evening outside of thunderstorms with waves generally 1-3 feet and a few possibly up to 4 feet. Winds are likely to decrease behind the front tonight after 4 AM. && .CLIMATE... High temperatures on Tuesday will be hot, but we are at the climatological warmest part of the year. Therefore, it is far from a certainty that any records will occur. MSS looks most likely to set a new record. PBG also is currently forecast to set a new record. MPV, and especially BTV and SLK, are unlikely to do so. See below for current records: Max Temp Records Date BTV MPV MSS PBG SLK 07-14 100|1995 94|1952 92|2012 95|1952 95|1934 High Min Temp Records Date PBG 07-14 70|1974 && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Boyd/Kremer DISCUSSION...Storm/Boyd AVIATION...Kremer MARINE...NWS BTV CLIMATE...NWS BTV ####018004187#### FXUS63 KFSD 150118 AFDFSD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 818 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Heat wave continues through the weekend. Highs in the 90s to around 100 degrees expected. Dew points remain a bit below seasonal normals, aiding in lower relative humidity. However, cumulative nature of the heat could lead to some heat impacts. - Very patchy morning fog is possible daily, but widespread dense fog remains unlikely. Fog will likely be confined to river valleys and nearby areas. - Precipitation very unlikely (less than 10%) through Saturday. Sunday into Monday chances rise to 15-20%, but confidence in timing is very low. && .UPDATE... Issued at 816 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026 The forecasts remains on track with the quiet and clear conditions continuing into the evening. Similar to the last few nights, breezy southerly winds will continue to decrease with the loss of diurnal heating. With higher dew points and lighter surface winds mainly across northwestern IA, patchy valley fog could develop causing temporary reductions in visibility through mid-morning Wednesday. With this in mind, make sure to slow down on those morning commutes. Otherwise, expect a continuation of the summer heat with the ridging firmly overhead. With the higher dew points continuing to be slightly offset from the warmest temperatures, most areas will likely fall just short of heat advisory criteria (HI>=100) on Wednesday. With highs expected to be mainly in the low to upper 90s, expected heat indices (HI) to mirror these temperatures for most areas. With all this being said, make sure to stay hydrated! && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 132 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026 Overall trends for above normal temperatures continues for the next several days. For Wednesday and Thursday did lower highs a couple of degrees and increase dew points a couple of degrees given latest trends/bias in the guidance. Basically the GFS is too hot and too low of dew points and that is getting incorporated into the NBM guidance and producing a trackable bias. The overall effects will not be significant as heat risks remain below advisory criteria with afternoon heat indices in the 90s. Friday looks like it could be the hottest day of the week as a weak front settles south and some enhanced mixing becomes possible as surface winds turn more southwesterly. This should be the day with the better chance for more widespread highs from the mid 90s to 103 or so. On Saturday, the NBM might be running too high given latest MOS and raw output as well as the bias corrected data. All point to lower temperatures. Still far enough out not highly confident on timing of this weaker boundary. On thing that could happen is the front could stall in the area and produce a little moisture pooling at the surface which would bring higher dew points. Something to watch for. Still some hints that the upper level ridge will break down just enough Sunday into Monday to allow for some isolated shower and thunderstorm potential. This continues to be a lower confidence scenario, especially in terms of timing. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 605 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026 Mainly VFR conditions will continue this TAF period as mostly clear conditions persist this afternoon. Similar to the last few night, southerly surface winds will gradually weaken overnight mainly across northwestern IA leading to a few patchy areas of valley fog. Decided to keep any mention of fog out of KSUX at this time since confidence is low in development that far west. However, we'll have to keep watching as the night progresses. Otherwise, expect surface winds to become more southeasterly and increase by Wednesday with gusts between 15-25 mph expected. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None. && $$ UPDATE...05 DISCUSSION...08 AVIATION...05