####018005805#### FXUS63 KGRB 081825 AFDGRB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 1225 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 Updated aviation portion for 18Z TAF issuance .KEY MESSAGES... - A clipper system is expected to bring a swath of 1 to 3 inches of snow along and north of a line from Wausau to Green Bay to Manitowoc tonight. Lesser amounts are expected farther south. - A more potent clipper system is expected to bring another round of snow to the area late Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday morning. This system is expected to produce 3-7 inches of snow over much of the forecast area. There is still some uncertainty in where the axis of heaviest snow will set up. A Winter Storm Watch has been issued for portions of the area from late Tuesday afternoon and evening into Wednesday morning. - Temperatures will moderate some by the middle of the week, then turn colder again late in the week. Wind chills of -10 to -30 are possible Friday night into early Saturday and again Saturday night into Sunday morning. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 259 AM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 Short Term...Today...Tonight...and Tuesday High pressure will push off to the east today, which will allow winds to turn southerly as a clipper system approaches from the west. Models suggest low clouds will develop in the late morning, and there may be just enough saturation depth for some flurries by afternoon. CAMs show that a north to south oriented lake-effect band should stay out over Lake Michigan, though a few flurries could impact the shoreline. The low pressure system will impact the region tonight, and should bring a swath of 1 to 3 inches of snow north of a Wausau to Green Bay to Manitowoc line. Recent model runs have bumped up snow totals a few tenths of an inch from previous runs. Gusty winds are expected across the region tonight, with the potential for a few gale force gusts across the nearshore areas, especially north of Sturgeon Bay. Snow will taper off Tuesday morning from the first clipper system, with a few hours of respite before the next clipper system approaches fast on its heels, bringing another swath of snow to the area Tuesday afternoon. The best moisture and dynamics will not quite be in the area by Tuesday afternoon, with snowfall amounts expected to mainly be below an inch during this period. Long Term...Tuesday Night Through Sunday The main focus for this period will be the clipper system expected to bring an impactful snowfall to the region late Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday morning, then the passage of an arctic cold front that will bring bitter cold wind chills Friday into next week. For Tuesday night, potent clipper system expected to bring a swath of moderate to heavy snow across portions of the area. A widespread swath of 3-7 inches of snow is expected, however there is still uncertainty in where the highest totals of 6+ inches would occur, thus the Winter Storm Watch covered more counties than if there was a convergence on location for the highest snowfall totals. The NAM/ECMWF is further north while the Canadian/GFS are further south. On the backside of the system, strong northerly winds are expected to produce some blowing or drifting of the snow, especially across eastern Wisconsin. Due to the ongoing light snow and gusty winds, the watch was continued until 9 am Wednesday morning for the Interstate/Highway 41 corridor east to the lake. High pressure builds into the region Wednesday night to allow for temperatures tank. On Thursday, high pressure slides east across the area while a clipper passes to the southwest. Attention then turns to an arctic cold front that will move across the area on Friday, bringing a chance of light snow. Arctic air is expected to linger across the area Thursday through the weekend, with the coldest air next weekend where wind chills of -10F to -30F are possible at times. && .AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1225 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 VFR conditions were the main flight category observed across the region late this morning, with a few sites in central and north- central WI reporting MVFR conditions at times due to passing flurries. Anticipate these conditions will continue for the remainder of the afternoon with intermittent flurries within the lower cigs ahead of an approaching clipper system. The quick-moving clipper system will bring accumulating snowfall, reduced vsbys, and MVFR/IFR conditions to the area from west to east late this evening into tonight. General arrival times at CWA/AUW/RHI around 04z Tue, and around 05-07z Tue at the east- central WI TAF sites. By early Tuesday morning, about 1-3 inches of snow is forecast along and north of a Wausau to Appleton to Manitowoc line. However, as the snow ends early Tuesday morning, there are indications of the MVFR/IFR conditions sticking around through the remainder of the TAF period with potential for freezing drizzle to occur. Southerly winds will increase this afternoon into this evening with gusts to 15 to 20 kts. There still appears to be a period of LLWS that will occur tonight with southwest winds up to 40 kts just above the surface, before surface winds turn westerly by Tuesday morning. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Storm Watch from Tuesday afternoon through late Tuesday night for WIZ018>021-030-031-035>037-045. Winter Storm Watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning for WIZ022-038>040-048>050-074. && $$ DISCUSSION.....Kurimski/Eckberg AVIATION.......Kruk ####018007217#### FXUS61 KCAR 081826 CCA AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service Caribou ME 126 PM EST Mon Dec 8 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure builds in through tonight, then slides offshore on Tuesday. A weak crosses the Gulf of Maine Tuesday night, followed by a stronger low tracking from the Great Lakes Wednesday morning to the southern Canadian Maritimes by Thursday morning. This low then slowly lifts northeast through the maritimes into Friday night. Another storm system approaches from the Great Lakes on Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Northwest flow aloft tonight gives way to locally zonal flow on Tuesday. With no shortwaves progged to be embedded in this flow, it should be dry. After cold advection clouds dissipate early this evening, it should be mainly clear tonight. Should see an increase in mid-high clouds Tuesday afternoon ahead of the next system. Lows tonight should be from the low single digits below zero to the mid-upper single digits above zero, this is around 15-20 degrees below normal. Wind chills tonight should be around 5 below to 15 below across most of the North and from around 5 below to 5 above elsewhere. Highs on Tuesday should be from the mid teens to around 30. This is about 15 degrees below normal. A northern stream shortwave approaches Tuesday evening, then crosses the area late Tuesday night. This should bring a round of light snow to at least Downeast Maine and the Bangor Region with the potential for 1-3" of snow - and highest totals over coastal Downeast Maine away from the immediate coast. There is some question as how far N/W the snow gets - with it likely that NW areas could remain snow free or get only some flurries. Lows Tuesday night should be around 5-10 degrees below normal. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A weather disturbance will be lifting away to the northeast Wednesday morning. Our attention then turns to a new area of low pressure approaching from the Great Lakes supported by a trough of low pressure tracking through the Midwest. Snow ahead of this low will spread into our area Wednesday afternoon as the low quickly approaches. Most of the model guidance is bringing the low center across the central part of our region. This favors the low pulling enough warm air to the north to change precipitation over to rain Downeast and in the lower Penobscot Valley but keeping precipitation as all snow over the north. This is a fast moving storm with most of the snow expected between mid to late afternoon Wednesday into mid to late evening Wednesday night. A light to moderate accumulation of 3 to 6 inches looks probable across Northern Penobscot and Eastern Aroostook Counties with a bit less over the west where drier air will surge in a bit more quickly. Low pressure will move away to the northeast late Wednesday night into early Thursday. However, some of the models are indicating that there could be a trailing shortwave and low crossing our area Thursday morning which could result in some light snow or snow showers persisting into Thursday. Otherwise, an upper trough lingering late Thursday will bring mostly cloudy conditions over the north with chances for snow showers across far northern areas. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Low pressure, both surface and aloft, will be nearby to the north Thursday night into Friday. This will bring cold gusty west to northwesterly winds and a chance for some snow showers over western and northern areas. Strong winds aligned from surface to aloft on Friday may result in a band of convergence forming downwind from the Laurentian Mountains in Quebec. This band typically runs southeast across Aroostook County, clipping northern Penobscot County, and impacting the Rt 1 Corridor from Mars Hill to Houlton with snow showers. Windy conditions may produce blowing snow in open areas. Gusty wind and a chance of snow showers will continue into Friday night. Looking ahead to the weekend, we will remain in a cold longwave trough with mid-winter like temperatures continuing. Some of the forecast models are showing the potential for another weak weather system sliding in from the west through the trough. However, fast flow, limited moisture and limited ability to dig will mean any new system would likely only result in some renewed light snow. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR through the TAF period, with the possible exception of a brief period of MVFR ceilings at northern terminals this afternoon. NW-WNW winds 10-15KT with some gusts to 15-25KT at KFVE/KBHB/KBGR, gusts more occasional in nature KCAR/KHUL and no gusts at KPQI. Wind gusts should abate throughout by late this afternoon/early this evening. With winds becoming light and variable at KBHB/KBGR and W-WSW at 10KT or less at northern terminals - with a chance for winds becoming light and variable at times (however not confident enough in this occurring to put in the TAFS). Should see LLWS at northern terminals tonight. Winds W-WSW at 10KT or less throughout by late Tuesday morning. Tuesday night...IFR or lower likely at southern terminals. Chance of MVFR or lower KCAR/KPQI/KHUL - with best chance at KHUL, VFR at KFVE. Light snow accumulation likely KBGR/KBHB. SW-S winds G15KT possible. SHORT TERM: Wednesday...MVFR lowering to IFR from south to north. S winds across the south and SE winds across the north around 5 kt. Wednesday night...IFR to LIFR. Light and variable wind north. SW wind around 7 kt south. Thursday...IFR improving to MVFR by mid morning. VFR south and MVFR north in the afternoon. W wind 5 to 10 kt. Thursday night...MVFR north and VFR south. W wind 5 to 10 kt. Friday...MVFR north and VFR south. W wind 10 to 15 kt gusting to 20 kt. Friday night...MVFR north becoming VFR. VFR south. W wind 10 kt. Saturday...MVFR, possibly lowering to IFR at times south. W wind 5 to 10 kt. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: SCA conditions across all waters through late this evening and continuing on the coastal ocean waters into the overnight hours, then sub-SCA conditions on waters through Tuesday. Gales are possible on the coastal ocean waters Tuesday night, with SCA conditions likely then on the intra-coastal waters. The threat of Gales is highlighted in the HWO. SHORT TERM: A gale may be needed for the offshore waters Wednesday night for W winds gusting up to 35 kt. A SCA will likely need to continue for the rest of the week for winds gusting over 25 kt. Winds may drop just below SCA over the weekend. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ050-051. Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EST this evening for ANZ052. && $$ Near Term...PM Short Term...MB Long Term...MB Aviation...PM/MB Marine...PM/MB ####018003624#### FXUS64 KSHV 081827 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 1227 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1119 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025 - Below normal temperatures will remain in place Monday ahead of a warming trend heading into middle of the week. - Dry conditions will remain in place across the region through much of the coming week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1119 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025 The cold front that was moving through the region has moved well to the southeast this evening along with the associated light rainfall that came with it. In the wake of this passing front, surface high pressure will move into the region quickly, taking over the area by early Monday morning. Meanwhile, we will be under the influence of northwest flow aloft on Monday. Because of all this, temperatures will be cooler on Monday, with highs ranging from the upper 40s to mid-50s across the region. Monday night will probably be one of the coolest nights of the upcoming week with lows dipping into the lower 30s across the majority of the region. A warming trend commences on Tuesday, peaking on either Thursday or Friday as another dry cold front moves through the area from the north. Earlier models indicated this front would move through the area on Thursday night into Friday, but it appears the progression has slowed down some. Either way, this front will usher in some below normal temperatures for next weekend across the region. There are some indications that our next chance for precipitation will come towards the end of this period, but there is much uncertainty at this time, as expected. /33/ && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1154 AM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 A mix of VFR and MVFR this afternoon as the clouds are attempting to erode across the central airspace with BKN/OVC still going strong across the east. To the west, SKC is in place and is expected to remain until any BR/FG potential materializes overnight. This will be important as overnight temps fall to near or below freezing, with BR/FG potential through the overnight hours. Though the current TAF package does not specifically mention it due to limited confidence at this time, and uncertainty surrounding how fast the eastern CIGs erode, there is some potential for freezing FG at local terminals overnight. Icing on parked or untreated aircraft may be possible depending on the extent of the FG development. If confidence increases, an update will add this verbiage in the 00z package. For now, the potential is there, thus the reason for messaging in the discussion. What fog does develop should quickly burn off through the AM with a brief FEW/SCT period ahead of what looks to be a mostly SKC period as winds shift southerly by morning. 53 && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 539 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025 Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 35 60 46 65 / 0 0 0 0 MLU 32 57 41 64 / 0 0 0 0 DEQ 29 58 37 61 / 0 0 0 0 TXK 33 60 44 62 / 0 0 0 0 ELD 29 56 41 62 / 0 0 0 0 TYR 35 62 46 65 / 0 0 0 0 GGG 32 61 44 65 / 0 0 0 0 LFK 34 63 44 69 / 0 0 0 0 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...33 AVIATION...53