####018003258#### FXUS65 KBOI 160328 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 928 PM MDT Mon Apr 15 2024 .DISCUSSION...West to northwest flow continues tonight into Tuesday as a shortwave ridge moves through the area tonight, with dry conditions. Winds will generally subside in the Magic Valley and Treasure Valleys tonight, where the wind advisory will be allowed to expire. A cold front over BC will move through WA and northern ID on Tuesday afternoon and through southwest ID and southeast OR on Wednesday. The front will be generally dry, with a slight chance of showers over the central ID mountains and Blue Mountains in OR. No updates to the forecast tonight. && .AVIATION...Generally VFR. Areas of mountain obscuration through Tuesday morning. Surface winds W-NW 10-20kt with gusts to 30kt near KTWF KJER. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: W-NW 15-25kt. KBOI...VFR. Scattered mid-high level clouds. NW wind 5-10kt. && .PREV DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM...Tonight through Wednesday night...Winds have reached advisory levels across southern Idaho this afternoon with sustained winds of around 30 mph, gusts up to 50 mph. A Wind Advisory remains in effect through this evening. Winds are expected to gradually subside after sunset. Isolated showers in SW Idaho associated with an upper low to our east will end this evening. Otherwise, dry conditions prevail through Tuesday. An upper trough will send a cold front through the region Tuesday night as the trough moves across the northern Rockies. Moisture will be limited to the far northern areas for a 30 to 50 percent chance of showers in the West Central Mountains on Wednesday. Gusty winds will continue Tuesday and Wednesday, but are not expected to be as strong as today. Temperatures trend cooler each day, with valley highs only in the 50s on Wednesday. LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday...There is strong agreement among both operational and ensemble models that a broad trough of low pressure will settle over central Canada through Friday. This is projected to place generally dry northwest flow over Idaho and Oregon, with seasonably cool temperatures and dry conditions. A short-wave ridge of high pressure is then anticipated for Saturday, just ahead of another area of low pressure that could impact the region Sunday into early next week. Under the ridge on Saturday forecast model data indicates a 60-70% chance of high temps of 70 or higher, and a 10-15% chance of 80 or higher for the lower valleys. Beyond Saturday, significant uncertainty enters the forecast as models grapple with the speed at which the next system moves inland off the Pacific. && .HYDROLOGY...The Owyhee River below Owyhee Dam is expected to remain above minor flood stage through Friday. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...Wind Advisory until midnight MDT tonight IDZ014>016-028-030. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.twitter.com/NWSBoise DISCUSSION...KA AVIATION.....KA SHORT TERM...BW LONG TERM....MC HYDROLOGY....BW