####018005405#### FXUS64 KCRP 160707 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 207 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 204 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026 - Widespread moderate to heavy rain through today, especially along the coast. Moderate risk of flash flooding. - NHC indicating a medium chance (60%) of tropical development along the Texas coast with a disturbance moving off the Texas coast. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 204 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026 This forecast isn't getting any easier. Convection will increase through the overnight hours as a mid-level low and associated surface feature move east or northeast from northern Mexico into the Valley and South Texas. Area wide rainfall totals of around 1-2 inches occurred today with some locations seeing higher totals including over Nueces and San Patricio counties where estimates of 3-5 inches are noted. The daytime rain has primed a lot of the area for flooding with the additional convection expected overnight. With the low situated near Nuevo Laredo currently, the evolution tonight seems most likely to be a band of convection moving south to north through the Coastal Plains, with scattered shower/storms west of there. With sky high PWAT values (2.66 on evening sounding) very efficient rainfall processes will be in play and rainfall rates of 2- 4"/hour are still expected. Beyond the overnight period, we have to figure out what this low is going to do as it starts moving eastward. Guidance is generally in agreement bringing it to around the coast and then northward, the question is, how close to the coast or will it move just out over the Gulf. This is critically important for a number of reasons. 1) East of the low center will stay in a very wet pattern, while the west side of the low center will dry out quickly as the low develops and is able to pull drier air down from the north. This could be the difference between half an inch of rain and 3 inches of rain, and right now it looks to set up right along the coast through Tuesday and into Wednesday. Current QPF expectations based on the current track would be for mainly less than an additional inch of rain for the Coastal Plans after Tuesday morning, and little if any additional convection west. Now for the other concern... 2) If the low moves off the coast, it could quickly develop tropical characteristics. The NHC may begin issues advisories as early as Tuesday if confidence is there that it would emerge into the Gulf. If that does develop, we could get some gusty winds along the coast for later Tuesday and Wednesday. Impacts would be short lived along our coast as the low moves north or northeastward into mid-week. Once the mid-level low pulls off to the northeast, substantially drier deep layer air moves in and allows temperatures to warm to above normal levels on Thursday. Later in the week temperatures will drop back a few degrees and we can get some isolated convection back into the region. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 204 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026 Currently have a mix of VFR to LIFR conditions due to continued showers/storms and fog. Expect these conditions to generally continue throughout the TAF period with periods of MVFR/VFR in between breaks in convection. Heavy rainfall likely to continue much of Tuesday with activity slowly clearing from west to east towards Tuesday evening. && .MARINE... Issued at 204 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026 A moderate to fresh (BF 4-5) onshore flow will persist through the next couple of days before increasing to fresh and possibly strong (BF 5-6) by midweek. There is a medium chance (60%) for tropical development as a disturbance currently over northeastern Mexico moves out over the western Gulf sometime during the next 48 hours. This could produce stronger winds than currently forecast if it develops. Additionally, current seas of 3-4 feet will increase to 5- 9 feet in response to this possible tropical development. Expect widespread showers and storms through at least midweek. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 204 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026 Fire weather concerns will remain low through the period due to increasing moisture, elevated relative humidity values, and increasing rain chances (moderate to high). Wet fuels and widespread cloud cover leading to cooler temps early next week should further limit fire weather potential. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 81 75 90 79 / 100 40 20 0 Victoria 82 73 89 77 / 90 40 30 10 Laredo 86 73 95 79 / 70 0 0 0 Alice 81 73 90 77 / 90 40 10 0 Rockport 86 78 92 83 / 100 60 30 10 Cotulla 86 73 94 78 / 70 0 0 0 Kingsville 80 73 90 78 / 90 40 10 0 Navy Corpus 84 79 90 83 / 100 50 20 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for TXZ229>234-239>247- 342>347-442-443-447. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...PH/83 AVIATION...BF/80 ####018005688#### FXUS61 KAKQ 160708 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 308 AM EDT Tue Jun 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated aviation discussion. No forecast changes. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Near average temperatures and mostly dry today and Wednesday. 2) Heating up on Thursday, then shower/storm chances return Thursday evening, potentially lingering through Friday. && .DISCUSSION... As of 305 AM EDT Tuesday... KEY MESSAGE 1....Near average temperatures and mostly dry today and Wednesday. High pressure is still in place over the local area early this morning. Meanwhile, a weak area of low pressure is forming along a stalled front just to the south in NC. Later today, that area of low pressure will progress across NC and then NE out to sea. This will prompt an increase in cloud cover and perhaps a few light showers near the Albemarle Sound. Otherwise, today will be fairly pleasant with temperatures running a little below average. Highs will be in the low to mid 80s inland. Coastal areas will be a few degrees cooler since winds will be onshore. The stalled front presses back north with the sfc low as a warm front overnight. This could initiate additional showers near the coast late tonight with the best chance being on the Eastern Shore (30-40% PoPs). It will thus be warmer with highs around 90. KEY MESSAGE 2...Heating up on Thursday, then shower/storm chances return Thursday evening, potentially lingering through Friday. Heating up further on Thursday as southwest flow increases ahead of the next cold front. Breezy SW winds will gust to around 25mph. Highs will be in the mid to upper 90s with heat indices around 100F. Unfortunately, there's not much more clarity on the fate of showers and storms Thursday into Friday. The overall trend of the 00z guidance suite does seem to be slower, though. The parent low of the front looks to weaken/broaden as it moves into coastal Canada, so it makes sense that the front would slow as it moves into the Mid- Atlantic. The slower progression will likely mean a later start time for showers and storms which could limit the severe threat. However, there is a window during the late evening hours where lingering instability from daytime heating and the presence of strong DCAPE could lead to a few strong to severe storms. As far as Friday goes, The ECMWF is still holding onto the idea of an area of low pressure forming over the deep south and progressing NE and passing south of the FA. The Canadian is starting to show hints of this as well, albeit much weaker. The GFS is holding onto the stalled front solution. Either way, it looks like a wet day Friday with numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms. If the Euro ends up being correct, there could be widespread moderate to heavy rainfall across the southern counties. The weekend still looks pretty nice with near-average temperatures and dry weather. && .AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 120 AM EDT Tuesday... VFR conditions prevail for the 06z/16 TAF period. A weak area of low pressure passing by to the south will bring an increase in cloud cover through the period, along with a low-end chance for showers at ECG and perhaps ORF this evening. Winds become easterly later this morning, then southeast this evening. Outlook: Isolated showers will be possible across the area Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. However, VFR conditions are expected to continue through most of Thursday, with showers/tstms possible late Thu/early Friday. && .MARINE... As of 305 AM EDT Tuesday... Key Message: - Generally benign marine conditions are expected through Wednesday. - A period of elevated SW winds is likely Wednesday night into Thursday night with SCA conditions possible. Early this morning, high pressure is building over the waters. Winds range from NW ~5 to 10 knots over the northern half of the waters, to light and variable south. Seas are running around 2 to 3 feet, and waves in the Chesapeake Bay 1 to 2 feet. Benign marine conditions are expected today through Wednesday. Winds become SE today, averaging 5 to 15 knots, and become S to SW on Wednesday with similar wind speeds to today. Wednesday night through Thursday: SW winds increase, averaging 15 to 20 knots with gusts to 25+ knots as a cold front begins to approach from the NW and strong low pressure develops north of the area. SCAs will likely be needed for the Chesapeake Bay and tidal rivers, as well as a majority of the coastal waters starting Thursday morning and continuing into at least the first half of Thursday night. Across the far offshore waters, especially south of the VA/NC border, wind gusts may approach 35 knots for a few hours Thursday evening into Thursday night, latest local wind probs show a ~50-60% for these 35 knot gusts. A cold front drops across the local waters on Friday with winds shifting to the N/NW behind the front (sub- SCA). A cold front drops south across the local waters on Fri with winds shifting to N/NW behind the front. Winds diminish Saturday into Sunday as high pressure builds into the area. Winds and seas may increase again early next week as another system approaches the region. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...AC AVIATION...AC MARINE...AJB ####018004720#### FXUS63 KGID 160708 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 208 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A boundary has resulted in showers and storms developing across portions of north central Kansas. Severe storms are not expected. - Increased rain and storm chances this weekend, especially Saturday night. Severe storms may develop. - Warming temperatures through Wednesday then a cold front will bring cooler temperatures (70s and 80s) for Thursday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 206 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026 Showers and thunderstorms are currently developing along a boundary in north central and central Kansas and moving southward. Most of this activity is to the south of the forecast area but some isolated showers (and possibly a thunderstorm) are developing across parts of north central Kansas. Any precipitation amounts are expected to be less than a quarter of an inch. No severe weather is expected. Temperatures today will be slightly warmer than yesterday as winds become southerly this afternoon. Temperatures are expected to continue to warm up on Wednesday despite a cold front beginning to move into the area. High temperatures for Wednesday may need to be lowered a bit if the front arrives any earlier. The cooler temperatures will be felt on Thursday as a surface high moves over the area with highs in the 70s and 80s. Shower and thunderstorm chances increase this weekend (up to 80%-85% chance Saturday night) with a passing shortwave. Severe storms may develop, although there is still some uncertainty. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 420 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026 Tonight as an upper level disturbance moves southeast into the great lakes region a weak front/wind shift will move across the area and could help to spark showers and thunderstorms during the late overnight/early morning hours. This primarily looks to impact locations south and east of the Tri-cities, but even moreso those along and southeast of a line from York, NE to Osborne, KS. Instability is limited and these storms are not expected to be strong or severe. As the Central Plains sits under northwest upper level flow, the pattern remains a bit active, but dry through most of the week. The next front will move through the area Wednesday. Temperatures ahead of this front will be steamy with highs in the upper to mid-90s for portions of northern Kansas. Models currently show the front traversing the area during the day, which will help temperatures some, but even northwesterly downslope winds with drier air will help keep temperatures up where the front has passed. Winds will be gusty out of the southwest ahead of the front and turn to the northwest after the front passes. Gusts could reach 35-40 mph. RH values behind the front are already showing values in the teens and low 20s across the area by afternoon. Despite the greenup, some areas, especially along and west of Hwy 183 have drier fuels and near critical fire conditions are possible with the combo of the fuels and the weather conditions. After the front moves through on Wednesday, temperatures are a bit more normal - in the mid 80s - for the end of the work week. The pattern gets a bit more active towards the weekend as an upper wave moves in from the west. Beginning overnight Friday into Saturday, thunderstorm activity increases. 40-60% is currently forecast for the weekend. Some of this activity could be strong to severe. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1228 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: Dry, VFR conditions are expected through most of the forecast period. Mid to upper level clouds are clouds are expected to move across the area tonight, with more upper level clouds possibly developing in the afternoon. Light, variable winds are expected tonight, becoming southerly by the late morning. Wind speeds will increase Tuesday afternoon through the evening, with southerly winds gusting to near 30 kts possible at the end of the forecast period. These strong surface level winds below a developing SW low-level jet make low-level wind shear a possibility at the end of the forecast period (approximately 4Z and onward). However, confidence in the magnitude, height, and coverage of this shear is low and has thus not been included in the TAF at this time. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ UPDATE...Schuldt DISCUSSION...Billings Wright AVIATION...Scott ####018005029#### FXUS63 KIWX 160709 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 309 AM EDT Tue Jun 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A marginal risk for severe weather exists for today with damaging winds and hail the main threats, but a tornado cannot be ruled out. - A moderate risk for severe weather exists for Wednesday into Wednesday night. Damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes, and localized flooding are all potential threats. - Dry weather returns for Friday and Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 305 AM EDT Tue Jun 16 2026 After ending the day Monday with dew points in the 40s, especially in areas east of IN-15, dew points are expected to rise into the 50s today. Short range models have two lines of convection moving through the area today. The first is along the return moisture plume and the second is back with the cold front. This first of showers and storms swinging in around 17 or 18z is expected to have only around 500 J/kg of CAPE with relatively weak shear (better south than north) in this inverted-v type environment so it comes with less confidence in any severe weather occurring, but if shear is slightly higher, it's possible a gusty to damaging wind event is observed. The second line of storms, associated with the cold front, swinging in around 21z is expected to have better instability (around 1500 J/kg) and around 25 to 30 kts of shear, which would point to a better environment for damaging winds and perhaps some hail. This second line's instability is contingent on any cloud debris from the first line being removed though. There is enough low level turning of the wind and low enough LCLs that a tornado cannot be ruled out from the line of convection associated with the cold front. Also, gusty winds 25 to 35 mph will be possible today as a low level jet swings through. The eventual location of the cold front Tuesday night is forecast down in MO, but the front's location later in the day and into the overnight has been trending northward over the last couple of the GFS runs. Even the HRRR attempts to push the warm front into the area starting around 22z Wednesday evening. However, both the HRRR and the NAM attempt to push what appears to be an MCS into the area around midday as a vort max develops overhead. If this puts out a cold pool, it may be tough get destabilization/recovery ahead of the following cold front. If we do, the low level jet is very strong and low level turning appears very conducive to a damaging wind and tornado environment. But again, trying to get parcels up into the better shear with limited instability may be difficult. Given the MCS and then squall line evolution, this may be enough to get heavy rain across the area. We've been so dry so that we can probably take some rain into the soils. Models have about a 20 to 40 percent chance of 2 inches of rain in 24 hours ending 12z Thursday, which is helped along by the PWATs reaching 2 inches Wednesday evening as the theta-e plume swings through. One other aspect of this is that there is a 17 mb pressure fall in 6hrs over the area Wednesday evening, which appears to be as the first MCS is leaving the area. Usually models display the possibility of a wake low by indicating subsidence in model soundings, but that doesn't appear to be the case in HRRR soundings. This may may be an indication it doesn't happen. Something to keep an eye on. Given the strength of the wave and its path across Lk MI, there could be some rain that attempts to form Thursday. The NAM has 500 J/kg of SBCAPE within this area so it would probably just lean showers and, at best, non-severe storms. Friday and Saturday are dry as mid level ridging and surface high pressure pass through. The next chance for showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms comes Sunday as the next wave ejects off the Rockies. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 132 AM EDT Tue Jun 16 2026 Two opportunities for showers and storms occur today as two convective lines swing through, the second along a cold front. There is some question about the severity and southern extent of the first line, but the second line looks to have the most confidence to be the stronger of the two. Given this, will go with a prob30 group for MVFR conditions with both lines individually, but lower for the second line. Damaging wind and hail are the main threats, but a tornado cannot be ruled out. Additionally, southwest gusts to 25 to 30 kts will be possible through the day today. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...None. OH...None. MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM EDT this evening for LMZ043-046. && $$ DISCUSSION...Roller AVIATION...Roller