####018006350#### FXUS64 KAMA 260000 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 700 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM ... (This evening through Friday night) Issued at 133 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 The dryline was moving east into the western Panhandles early this afternoon. An upper level low was moving northeast toward the 4- corners. Upper level winds where increasing across the Panhandles ahead of this low. The dryline is expected to mix east to near a Guymon to Amarillo line by mid to late afternoon. This is when some thunderstorms may start to develop. At this point, it looks like the central Oklahoma Panhandle and the north-central Texas Panhandle have the best chances of thunderstorms as the strongest dynamics move across the dryline. Further south along the dryline, the cap may hold and we may not see much. More thunderstorms may clip the southeast Texas Panhandle late this evening into the early morning hours of Friday in association with another jet streak. Any thunderstorms this afternoon or tonight may become severe with very large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado all possible. .Fire Weather... A red flag warning will continue for the western Panhandles until 9 pm this evening. Strong southwest winds behind the dryline will couple with relative humidty values down around 10 percent to bring critical fire weather conditions. && .LONG TERM ... (Saturday through next Wednesday) Issued at 133 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 Elevated fire weather conditions may return tomorrow (Friday) with critical fire weather conditions possible on Sat, especially across west central to northwestern portions of the combined Panhandle into eastern NM. Early Friday a dryline in the eastern portions of the combined Panhandles should mix into western OK. If this dryline can retreat back into the eastern combined Panhandle s Friday night into Sat morning, some severe thunderstorms may be possible for the far eastern counties in the combined Panhandles Sat afternoon. Pretty much all of the combined Panhandles will be on the dry side of a dryline for Fri, with temperatures in the 80s and RH values falling into the low to mid teens. A secondary H5 low pressure system will be digging down the western CONUS states reintroducing some faster winds aloft (50 to 60 kts) going into Fri evening. Sat, this system is expected to close off and traverse the Four Corners Region with winds aloft increasing even more over the Panhandles to around 70 to 80 kts at H5. Depending on the ability of low level moisture to advect back into the eastern Panhandles with the potential retreating of the dryline, some thunderstorms will be possible for the far eastern counties. Have decreased the NBM PoPs which were around 30 around the TX/OK stateline to around 15 to 20 percent across the far eastern FA. If thunderstorms do occur there could be a chance for a severe thunderstorms. However, most of the deterministic models have the dryline mix back east taking the overall storm potential out of the combined Panhandles and into western OK. This could be an instance where storms pop in the eastern Panhandles and quickly move east before they are able to become severe. Due to the increase in the winds aloft Sat, a second and much strong leeside low is expected to develop over NW NM/SE CO/W OK Panhandle. The pressure gradient and mixing of winds aloft are expected to lead to windier conditions Sat with sustained winds around 30 to 35 mph, and a 40 to 50 percent probability of gust reaching 50 mph across central to western portions of the combined Panhandles. With much of the area expected to be on the dry side of the dryline, min RH values are progged to approach 10 percent as the afternoon highs reach into the 80s. Once again elevated to critical fire weather conditions are possible especially for areas not seeing greenup. As the H5 low moves off Sat night, and the surface low with it, a weak cold front is expected to dip into the area bringing northerly winds for Sun. Highs on Sun are expected to be in the upper 60s across the northwestern FA and 70s to the southeast compared to the 80s on Sat. After Sun an H5 ridge is expected to build in over the Great Plains temperatures will rebound into the 80s for Mon and even approach the low 90s for Tue. Tue and beyond there are hits at some possible chances for thunderstorms with perturbations in the ridge coming across the combined Panhandles. Have stuck with the NBM PoPs for now which introduce some 20 to 40 PoPs, from north to south across the FA on Wed. 36 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 648 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 For the 00Z TAFs, surface winds will diminish this evening, then increase around mid to late Friday morning at KDHT and KAMA. Any thunderstorms that might develop this evening should not impact any of the terminal sites. 02 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 52 81 52 80 / 20 0 0 0 Beaver OK 53 85 52 85 / 40 0 0 20 Boise City OK 47 80 45 74 / 0 0 0 20 Borger TX 55 86 55 85 / 20 0 0 10 Boys Ranch TX 52 83 50 80 / 0 0 0 0 Canyon TX 51 80 50 79 / 10 0 0 0 Clarendon TX 53 82 52 83 / 30 0 0 10 Dalhart TX 46 80 45 75 / 0 0 0 10 Guymon OK 49 83 48 81 / 10 0 0 10 Hereford TX 51 81 50 78 / 0 0 0 0 Lipscomb TX 54 85 53 85 / 30 0 0 20 Pampa TX 53 83 53 83 / 40 0 0 10 Shamrock TX 52 85 52 84 / 40 0 0 20 Wellington TX 53 85 52 85 / 60 0 0 20 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ001-002-006- 007-011-012-016. OK...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ001-002. && $$ SHORT TERM...15 LONG TERM....36 AVIATION...02 ####018008922#### FXUS61 KCLE 260000 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 800 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure drifts east of the Great Lakes and then off the coast of New England by Friday night. A warm front will lift across the area late Friday into Saturday followed by a cold front Monday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... 6:30 PM Update... The forecast remains on track for this evening with no changes needed. Temperatures are running about 7-10 degrees warmer than at this time yesterday, so still looks like most areas avoid a freeze tonight outside of NW PA, so current headlines look reasonable. Original Discussion... High pressure over the Great Lakes drifts eastward tonight into Friday, but not before one last mainly clear and chilly overnight period. Freeze warning, largely for the eastern portions of our NW PA counties, and Frost Advisories everywhere else except for the immediate lakeshore areas. Not as cold overall as last night, but still in this chilly airmass and should radiate fairly well with lots of low-mid 30s, especially in the rural areas. 30F possible in eastern Crawford PA and the southeast portion of Erie County PA, prompting the freeze headline despite the smaller area of potential freezing temperatures. High clouds increase ahead of a warm front Friday, but with the surface high pressure system well east of the area, return flow brings a dramatic improvement to the temperatures that will be 15 to 20 degrees warmer than are being seen today. Should top the 70F mark over the southwestern zones in the FDY/MNN areas. Showers and a few thunderstorms with the warm front late Friday evening into Friday will move in from the southwest. As of this issuance, just expecting general thunderstorms during the Friday night period. Temperatures not as low behind the warm front, but for NW PA, likely yet to be in the milder air, mid 40s a better bet. Most locations will be under a quarter inch of rain. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... SW'erly to W'erly flow aloft and embedded shortwave disturbances affect our CWA during the short-term period as our CWA remains along the western flank of an amplifying mid/upper-level ridge over the eastern United States. At the surface, a warm front should extend SE'ward across central Lake Erie to near the NE OH/NW PA border at daybreak Saturday. This front should drift generally NE'ward and exit Lake Erie and our CWA by early Saturday afternoon. Behind the front, our region will reside along the northwestern flank of a surface ridge that is expected to become focused just offshore the Atlantic coast of the United States through Sunday night. The combination of low-level warm/moist air advection from the Gulf of Mexico and southern Gulf Stream, and intervals of sunshine will allow abnormal warmth to affect northern OH and NW PA. Highs should reach the mid 60's to lower 70's in NW PA and the 70's to lower 80's late Saturday afternoon. Overnight lows should reach the mid 50's to mid 60's around daybreak Sunday. Warmer highs in the mid to upper 70's are expected in NW PA late Sunday afternoon, while highs should reach the upper 70's to lower 80's in northern OH. Overnight lows should once again reach the mid 50's to mid 60's around daybreak Monday. Moist isentropic ascent along the upper-reaches of the warm front and resulting release of weak, elevated CAPE should trigger scattered rain showers and thunderstorms over central/eastern Lake Erie, far-NE OH, and NW PA Saturday morning through early afternoon. Otherwise isolated rain showers and thunderstorms are possible through Sunday night due to the release of weak to moderate instability, including elevated instability, via the following: Moist isentropic ascent preceding shortwave trough axes and low- level convergence/moist ascent along subtle surface trough axes attendant to the shortwave troughs. The best potential for these additional isolated showers/thunderstorms should exist over/near central/eastern Lake Erie Saturday night into Sunday morning as a WSW'erly LLJ develops, undergoes enhanced moist isentropic ascent, and releases weak, yet sufficient elevated CAPE. Primarily moderate to strong deep layer bulk shear should allow storms to be organized and perhaps strong at times. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... The aforementioned ridge at the surface and aloft should exit E'ward on Monday through Monday night as SW'erly flow aloft and embedded shortwave disturbances continue to impact our region. Isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms remain possible due to similar reasons mentioned in the short-term part of the discussion. Intervals of sunshine and continued low-level warm/moist air advection from the southern Gulf Stream and Gulf of Mexico are expected to allow late afternoon highs to reach mainly the lower 80's. Overnight lows should reach the upper 50's to lower 60's around daybreak Tuesday. W'erly flow aloft becomes established over the eastern Great Lakes and Upper OH Valley on Tuesday through Thursday as embedded shortwave disturbances continue to traverse our region. At the surface, net troughing becomes established and two cold fronts are forecast to sweep E'ward through our CWA; one on Tuesday and a stronger/reinforcing front on Wednesday. Isolated to scattered and periodic showers/thunderstorms are possible due in part to the release of weak instability, including elevated instability, via low- level convergence/moist ascent along the fronts. Daytime highs should reach mainly the 70's on Tuesday and Wednesday, and the 60's to lower 70's on Thursday as a noticeably-colder air mass follows the second/stronger cold front. Overnight lows should reach the 50's around daybreak Tuesday and the upper 40's to lower 50's around daybreak Wednesday. && .AVIATION /00Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/... VFR will remain in control areawide through the TAF cycle as surface high pressure slowly shifts into New England allowing a warm front to lift across the region late Friday. This will cause light NE winds tonight to become SE at 5-10 knots Friday. The weak gradient will allow for an afternoon lake breeze, so have winds turning NE at KCLE and KERI Friday afternoon, although the wind shift will likely take until late afternoon to reach KCLE. Light SE winds will then return Friday evening. Outlook...Non-VFR may return in periodic showers and thunderstorms early Friday night through Monday. && .MARINE... E'erly to NE'erly winds around 5 to 15 knots are expected through Friday, but should be as strong as 20 knots at times through this early evening and again tomorrow afternoon through early evening as daytime heating of land surrounding Lake Erie and contraction of relatively-cold lake-modified air result in localized enhancement of the ridge over Lake Erie. Waves trend mainly 3 feet or less, but occasional 4 footers should accompany the enhanced NE'erly winds east of The Islands. Given these very marginal winds/waves, refrained from issuing a Small Craft Advisory. The ridge exits E'ward as a warm front drifts generally NE'ward across Lake Erie on Friday night through Saturday. This front's passage will cause NE'erly to E'erly winds around 10 to 20 knots to veer to S'erly. However, the S'erly winds may be as strong as 25 knots at times on Saturday and a Small Craft Advisory may be needed. Waves trend primarily 3 feet or less in nearshore waters and no larger than 4 to 6 feet in open U.S. waters. S'erly to SW'erly winds around 10 to 20 knots Saturday night ease to around 10 to 15 knots on Sunday through Monday night as the aforementioned ridge rebuilds into the Lake Erie region and the core of ridge becomes located offshore the southeastern U.S. Waves should trend mainly 3 feet or less, but occasional 4 to 5 footers are forecast in open U.S. waters Saturday night into Sunday. A weak cold front should sweep E'ward across Lake Erie on Tuesday and cause SW'erly winds around 5 to 15 knots to veer to W'erly. Waves are expected to remain 3 feet or less. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Friday for OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047. PA...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Friday for PAZ002-003. NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...26 NEAR TERM...Garuckas/26 SHORT TERM...Jaszka LONG TERM...Jaszka AVIATION...Garuckas MARINE...Jaszka ####018006321#### FXUS63 KSGF 260000 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 700 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Multiple rounds of moderate to heavy rainfall and some storms will continue this afternoon into tonight, best coverage will be through early this evening. A risk for localized flooding will occur into early this evening. - Risk of severe storms will occur Friday through Sunday night as multiple rounds of storms move through the region. Greatest severe threat appears to be Saturday evening and night. - Heavy rain and the potential for flooding will continue to accompany the active weather period through this weekend. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 330 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 An area of showers and a few thunderstorms continues to move east across the area this afternoon, mainly along and north of Highway 60. Precipitable water values are between 1 and 1.5 inches so the heavy showers and storms are very efficient rain producers. Overall these storms are weakening as they move east as the better instability remains off to the west, but locally heavy rainfall and a localized flooding risk into early this evening. An additional line of storms have developed across east central Kansas and will move southeast into the area this evening. The better instability axis will remain to west of the area so the line will be moving out of the better instability as it moves into the area. 0-3km bulk shear vectors will also be from west to east which will be parallel to the line and not perpendicular to the line which will make it more outflow dominant. Therefore, the line of storms will weaken as it moves southeast into the area. There could still be be some gusty winds and small hail with the line but overall expect it to weaken. Locally heavy rainfall will occur with the line and will have to watch any training in the line for a localized flooding risk late this afternoon into early this evening. Overall the storms should start to move off to the east and weaken early this evening but isolated activity will remain possible into the overnight hours. Additional storms will develop across Oklahoma and Texas this evening and likely develop into a line and move northeast into the area late tonight into Friday morning. A warm front will move north through the area tonight and on Friday, and instability will increase across the area behind the front. Damaging straight line winds will be possible with the line of storms especially with any bowing segments. Localized heavy rainfall and flooding will also be possible Friday where storms can train. The upper level trough will move northeast into the northern Plains on Friday along with a front moving east into eastern Kansas on Friday. The better upper level support will be north the area and the better coverage in storms will therefore be north of the area across northeastern Missouri into Iowa. If enough instability can recover behind the morning convection scattered storms should be able to develop along the front across eastern Kansas and move east. Larger hail to golf balls size and damaging winds will be the risks with the storms. Low level shear will start to increase Saturday evening as the low level jet increases and could lead to a risk for a few tornadoes. Coverage in storms could be limited and just how far east the storms make it are also in question as the front starts to move back to the east Friday night. The best potential for additional storms will be west of Highway 65 if not I-49. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 330 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 The cold front will move back to the east across central Kansas and Oklahoma Saturday. A second upper level trough will move into the central Plains on Saturday. As the trough move east additional storms will develop across Kansas and Oklahoma along the front and move to the northeast. Most of the area will likely be dry through much of the day on Saturday as the better forcing and height falls remain to the west. As the front and trough moves east the storms will move off to the northeast into the western portions of the area Saturday evening and the rest of the area Saturday night into Sunday. These storms will be capable of producing damaging winds and large hail Saturday evening into Sunday. Low level shear will increase across the area Saturday evening and night with the approach of the trough therefore there will be a risk for a few tornadoes with this activity as well Saturday evening into Sunday morning. A line of storms will likely move through the area Sunday morning into the afternoon hours. The cold front will move through Sunday evening and night. Additional showers and storms will be possible on the front Sunday evening into Monday morning instability may be weak behind the morning storms and this activity should be sub severe. An upper level ridge will build over the area next week with above normal temperatures expected next week. The ensemble model members show a front stalling over the region during the middle of next week somewhere over the region. There are still questions on the exact locations, but there could be some periods of showers and storms along the front but still questions are the coverage and exact locations. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 656 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 Showers and thunderstorms will persist at times through the entire TAF period. It won't be a complete washout, as periods of dryness will occur. Primarily looking at MVFR to IFR ceilings, but periods of VFR will likely occur at times, especially during the day Friday. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 1225 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 Record High Minimum Temperatures: April 27: KSGF: 67/1899 April 28: KSGF: 68/1896 && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Wise LONG TERM...Wise AVIATION...Titus CLIMATE...Wise ####018006846#### FXUS65 KGJT 260002 AFDGJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 602 PM MDT Thu Apr 25 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue this afternoon and evening, with gusty winds and small hail the main threats. - Cool and unsettled weather continues Friday through the weekend as another system moves through. Accumulating mountain snowfall is likely, mainly above 9000 feet. - Warmer weather returns again next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 352 PM MDT Thu Apr 25 2024 Scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed as expected this afternoon, in response to a strong mid-level disturbance rotating through overhead. The environment in place has been quite favorable for convection, characterized by strong diabatic heating, around 500 j/kg of SBCAPE... and steep mid-level lapse rates between 8.5 and 9.5C/km. Combined with forcing for ascent along a weak cold front, terrain enhancement, and modest height falls aloft, it's no surprise why current radar and satellite imagery appear the way they do. Overall, the main threat from showers and storms this afternoon and evening is gusty outflow winds with gusts upwards of 45 to 55 mph. Forecast soundings, along with this morning's 12Z GJT observed sounding, show a lot of dry air in the boundary layer... and while some of the stronger storms will be capable of producing small hail and brief heavier rain, the stout inverted V signatures suggest a lot of precip evaporating before reaching the ground. The added momentum of cooling/evaporating air aloft rushing to the surface will thus lead to an isolated wind threat through the evening hours. In fact, we've already observed this earlier today when strong outflow produced a 54 mph wind gust at Cortez-Montezuma County Airport. Otherwise, this afternoon's weather is a far cry from what we've had here as of late, with plenty of clouds and much cooler temperatures taking the edge off our early summer preview. Most storms should diminish within a couple hours after sunset with the loss of daytime heating and a stabilizing boundary layer. That being said, do expect some shower activity to linger into the overnight hours. By Friday morning, the disturbance that is currently passing overhead will be well to our east with a shortwave ridge building in from the west. This should result in a very brief period of mainly dry weather before the next storm system arrives later Friday afternoon. This next system is looking stronger than the first and will be accompanied by a much more potent cold front. Similar to today, we'll have another round of scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms develop mainly after 21Z with gusty winds and small hail again the primary risks. In the wake of the passing cold front Friday night, attention then turns to winter as accumulating mountain snow is looking likely to round out the work week and start the weekend. While snow showers are probable in the mountains prior, the real action gets going Friday night into Saturday as strong forcing for ascent increases and becomes maximized within difluent flow and the left exit region of a strong upper level jet. The air aloft really isn't all that cold with 700mb temps generally 0C to -5C... but it will still be cold enough to support snow in the eastern Uintas and the Continental Divide mountains near and above 9000 feet. Given the late season nature of this storm and possible impacts at pass levels, decided to go ahead and issue a Winter Weather Advisory with this package for amounts of 6 to 12 inches from Friday night through early Sunday morning. For more details on how the storm plays out through then, see the long term discussion below. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 352 PM MDT Thu Apr 25 2024 On Saturday the low pressure tracks right over the forecast area, so plenty of lift and moisture in place for precipitation. Widespread showers are expected through out the day. This is supported by the high res models, which are now starting to cover that timeframe. Despite being a cold core system temperatures will be rather seasonal therefore snow levels are expected to be in that 7-9 kft range. Impacts from snow above these elevations will be limited by strong solar insolation. A few thunderstorms are possible, but the amount of instability will rely heavily on clouds clearing out. With the low center overhead wind direction will be very location and time dependent. Generally flow will go from southwesterly to westerly, but there may be a period of north/northeast winds so shower movement may be a bit chaotic compared to normal. On Saturday night the low exits out over the Plains. We should see a down tick with precipitation across our area. Although snow showers may linger in the mountains and produce messy travel around the passes. The QPF forecast has come down quite a bit in the last few model runs so confidence in the amounts is low. Just know that slick spots are possible Sunday morning generally at pass level. Moisture is slow to work out of here so with the steep lapse rates in place additional shower development is possible. Monday is looking mostly dry, but a system moving over the Northern Rockies could bring chances back to the northern CWA. Regardless zonal flow becomes established and temperatures begin to warm and by mid week southwest flow returns. This means daytime highs will be 10-15 degrees above normal. For the most part the entire week looks dry, but things could change. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 544 PM MDT Thu Apr 25 2024 The scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the region are decreasing and will continue to diminish through the overnight hours lingering mostly in the mountains along the Divide. The gusty winds will also drop off over the next few hours becoming light terrain driven overnight. Expect broken ceilings overnight mostly in the mountains with periods below ILS breakpoints at KASE and KTEX. Look for another round of convection beginning after 10Z becoming widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms by about 21Z across the region. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM Friday to 6 AM MDT Sunday for COZ004-009-010-012-013-018-019. UT...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM Friday to 6 AM MDT Sunday for UTZ023. && $$ SHORT TERM...MDM LONG TERM...KJS AVIATION...DB ####018004138#### FXUS64 KMEG 260004 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 704 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 300 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible this evening, mainly to the north of Memphis ahead of a slow moving warm front. After the warm front moves north of the Mid- South, warmer and more humid conditions will spread into the region on Friday and continue through the weekend. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected over eastern Arkansas and the Missouri bootheel for Friday and Saturday. Thunderstorms will become more widespread across the entire Midsouth Sunday night through Tuesday, as a Pacific cold front approaches the region. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Wednesday) Issued at 300 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 Skies are cloudy across southern sections of the Mid-South with mostly sunny skies over the remainder of the region. Temperatures this afternoon are in the 60s to around 70 degrees. A large area of showers cover much of east Arkansas, southwest Tennessee and north Mississippi. All of this activity is north of slow moving warm front which extends across extreme southern Arkansas and into central Mississippi. As the warm front lifts north into north Mississippi tonight, the area of showers and isolated thunderstorms will move north into northeast Arkansas and west Tennessee. Temperatures will remain near normal tonight with lows from the mid 50s to lower 60s. On Friday, the warm front continues to move north into the Mid- Mississippi Valley, bringing an end to the threat of rain for areas east of the Mississippi River. Behind the warm front, warmer and more humid air moves into the region. Temperatures will be some 10 to 15 degrees warmer than today with highs in the low to mid 80s. A frontal boundary will stall out across the central and southern Plains by Friday evening. Thunderstorms are expected to form ahead of the front with some the activity reaching areas of the Mid-South west of the Mississippi River for Friday night and Saturday. Most areas should see dry weather for Saturday night through Sunday morning as the thunderstorms that develop over the southern Plains on Saturday are not expected to reach the Mid- South. By Sunday, the cold front will begin to move slowly east reaching western Arkansas by Monday and into the Mid-South on Tuesday. As the front gets closer to the region, showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage from west to east. Rainfall could become heavy across portions of the Mid-South west of the Mississippi River for Sunday night into Monday. Any threat of severe weather should be confined to areas west of the Mid-South across central and western Arkansas. With extensive cloud cover and rain expected on Monday, temperatures will be cooler. Once the cold front moves through the region, dry weather is expected for Tuesday night. Warmer weather returns to the region for Wednesday with a few thunderstorms possible ahead of an upper level disturbance. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 657 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 As a warm front continues to lift north over the airspace, a swath of showers will intermittently affect MKL and JBR over the next few hours. Ceilings along this boundary are around 5 kft AGL and no lightning is expected so aviation impacts will be minimal. A cold front will approach tomorrow, increasing southerly winds to 10-15 kts with gusts approaching 25-30 kts. Another round of precip is expected late in the period after 00Z Saturday, though the thunder potential is a bit more uncertain given the trend toward less instability at the diurnal minimum. A midlevel cloud deck between 5-10 kft looks to persist through the period areawide. CAD && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...ARS AVIATION...CAD