####018006383#### FXUS64 KHGX 081845 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1245 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... - Cold temperatures tonight into Tuesday morning with a light freeze expected in portions of the Piney Woods. - Warming trend through midweek is briefly halted by a weak cold front on late Wednesday/early Thursday, but expect temperatures to approach 80°F on Friday. - Chances for showers/storms return going into the weekend. - We continue to monitor the potential for another cold front towards the end of the week, but uncertainty remains. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1245 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 Following Sunday's cold front, it feels like December once again as temperatures dropped into the 30s/40s areawide. Locations across the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods also received some patchy frost on vehicles and roof tops. That's the true winter-like experience...or at least as close as we'll get to that anytime soon. With CAA prevailing throughout the day, we'll only top out in the upper 50s to low 60s. Drier air will continue to funnel leading to the decrease of cloud cover throughout the day. Clear skies will prevail going into tonight as winds become light with surface high pressure moving in overhead. This brings us to my favorite formula this time of the year! Clear skies + light winds + dry air (widespread dew points in the 30s) = max radiational cooling. So, tonight into Tuesday morning will be the coldest period of the forecast period with low temperatures ranging from the low 30s to low 40s. Portions of the Piney Woods will likely experience a brief, light freeze as well. Additionally, areas north of I-10 may see another round of patchy frost on rooftops and vehicles left outdoors, so be sure to take that into account for your Tuesday morning commute. Onshore flow returns by Tuesday afternoon leading to a warming trend that takes us into the end of the work week. High temperatures on Tuesday will be in the low to mid 60s and then we peak into the 70s Wednesday through Friday. There will be a brief halt to the warming trend as a weak cold front pushes into the area (but likely not all the way through) on late Wednesday/early Thursday. This will reinforce drier air for most of the area and keep widespread low temperatures in the 40s for another night (Wednesday night). That front pushes back to the north as a warm front on Thursday, which reignites our warming trend. High temperatures on Friday will be well above normal with widespread temperatures in the upper 70s. Isolated instances of spots reaching the 80°F mark can't be entirely ruled out. This would put us in near record territory, but we'd need to tack on a few more degrees to actually challenge record highs on Friday. Chances for showers and storms return going into the weekend as a surface trough develops near the coast and pairs with passing shortwaves embedded in the flow aloft. Rain chances will be mainly relegated to locations along the coast and south of I-10. Speaking of the weekend, there is quite a bit of social media buzz about another round of cold temperatures. While this may be true for portions of the eastern CONUS, let's discuss this potential for specifically Southeast TX. It's important to note that there is a lot of uncertainty with this next cold front. For instance, majority of the latest deterministic guidance doesn't bring a front through here at all this weekend. That's just one model run though, so let's take a look at ensemble guidance to see if there's any confidence in one solution over another. Ensemble members in the GEFS have more solutions reflecting below normal temperatures versus above normal. It's the complete opposite for the ECMWF ensemble with the vast majority of its members reflecting above normal temperatures. The NBM reflects uncertainty as well with a 15-20+ degree difference between the upper and lower quartiles for max/min temperatures over the weekend. A large interquartile range is indicative of a wide range in model output, which is just a fancy way of saying that there's a lot of uncertainty. Upper level synoptic flow has the main jet stream staying well to our northeast through the weekend. There is a bit more of an amplified trough in the deterministic GFS, which is why the front pushes through in that solution late in the weekend. Even then, the bulk of the colder air stays well to our north and east. All that to say, don't place all of your stock into one model solution...especially when it's 5+ days out. Batiste && .AVIATION... (18Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1154 AM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 VFR conditions prevail this afternoon and continue through the period. Winds will be light out of the north, becoming light and variable overnight. Bailey && .MARINE... Issued at 1245 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 Winds and seas will continue to subside throughout the day, but small craft should continue to exercise caution in the offshore Gulf waters through the afternoon as sustained winds will persist in the 15-20 kt range. A lingering effect of these northerly winds and the moon phase will lead to abnormally low water levels during low tide this afternoon in both of the bays. The latest PETSS guidance shows water levels reaching the -0.8 to -0.4 ft MLLW. Northeasterly winds will prevail into Tuesday, then become southeasterly by Tuesday afternoon. Winds become southwesterly going into midweek as a weak frontal boundary pushes into the region. Additionally, there is potential for another round of patchy fog around midweek. Batiste && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 34 64 46 72 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 39 64 48 74 / 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 52 61 56 71 / 0 0 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ370-375. && $$ DISCUSSION...Batiste AVIATION...Bailey MARINE...Batiste ####018004408#### FXUS62 KILM 081847 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 147 PM EST Mon Dec 8 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure north of the area will bring chilly weather until it moves offshore Wednesday. After a brief period of seasonable weather the late week period will remain cooler than normal. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Surface high pressure centered generally over the Great Lakes early this afternoon will push southeastward across the Mid Atlantic region late tonight into Tuesday, then off the coast by Tuesday evening. Moisture overrunning the 2000 ft cool surface airmass combined with lift ahead of a shortwave currently crossing the southern Appalachians, is producing patchy light rain and drizzle, which will exit to the northeast through late afternoon. Widespread low stratus is expected to develop this evening, which should scatter out mid to late morning Tuesday. 850 mb cold advection overnight will result in overnight lows dropping into the mid-upper 20s most areas. Given a chilly start and overcast skies through the morning, high temps will once again remain well below normal Tuesday...generally a 43-48 range. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... After a bit of a chilly start Tuesday night Wednesday will have a seasonable afternoon for the first time this month. This is due to the erosion of the wedge of high pressure that's been in place erodes rapidly and an approaching cold front induces southwesterly flow. The prefrontal flow regime will allow for the milder temperature but flow aloft will be WSW preventing much in the way of moisture advection. FROPA Wednesday evening will thus be rain- free and usher in a wind shift followed by moderately strong CAA. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... 850mb temperatures back below zero on Thursday for highs that struggle into the low 50s. HIgh pressure may build in sufficiently Thursday night for radiational cooling that may require a reconsideration of lows towards some of the cooler values. A shortwave passing by to our north on Friday leads to some WAA locally ahead of it's weak surface reflection that is progged to cross VA at night, the system still moisture-deprived this far south. The mid level pattern will be of low amplitude late in the period with temperatures remaining cooler than normal but not to the extent of the past several days. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... MVFR with tempo IFR expected through the afternoon. Periods of light rain and drizzle can be expected at KILM through about 20Z. There is high confidence in widespread IFR ceilings developing this evening, with guidance holding onto it longest at ILM, where it carries over until 15Z. VFR expected Tuesday afternoon through Saturday. && .MARINE... Through Tuesday... With a surface trough well off the Cape Fear coast and moving ENE, northerly winds will continue through Tuesday. The stronger winds are running a few hours later than expected, however Small Craft Advisory conditions are still anticipated. Latest guidance indicates 25 kt gusts north of Little River Inlet by 21Z and south of Little River after 00Z. The gradient will relax a bit by late Tuesday morning as high pressure builds in from the west. Tuesday night through Saturday... High pressure west of the waters weakens considerably Tuesday night into Wednesday turning light west winds to the southwest followed by a marked increase in speed. The approach of a cold front will be responsible for the increase in gradient and headlines will be needed Wednesday and Wednesday night. The boundary pushes through Wednesday night bringing northwesterly abating winds while steepening wave faces. Weak high pressure moves offshore Friday while a warm front tries to organizes south of the area, keeping winds fairly light. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ250-252. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ254-256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM NEAR TERM...CRM SHORT TERM...MBB LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...CRM MARINE...ILM ####018009200#### FXUS61 KOKX 081839 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 139 PM EST Mon Dec 8 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure builds in from the west into Tuesday. The high weakens and shifts offshore as a weak clipper low passes to the north Tuesday night. A stronger low approaches on Wednesday, passing north Wednesday night into Thursday and sending a cold front through the area. High pressure will then build from the northern Plains through the Ohio Valley to the Mid Atlantic coast from Thursday into Friday, then move off the Southeast coast Friday afternoon. An Alberta clipper low will pass close by Friday night into Saturday morning, followed by Canadian high pressure this weekend. An Arctic cold front will move through on Sunday, with strong high pressure building in on Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Key Points: * Bitterly cold tonight with temperatures falling into the single digits and teens; coldest air since February for most. Higher cloud deck lingers over the region through this evening as low pressure tracks off the Carolina coast, though this should begin to erode overnight. Closer to home, a 1030 mb surface high pressure centered near the eastern Great Lakes builds over the region, with winds lightening into this evening as the pressure gradient relaxes. The lighter flow could allow for more efficient radiative cooling overnight and continued to blend in MOS guidance to better capture this potential. Either way, very cold, better than 15 degrees below climo, with temperatures falling back into the single digits inland, and the teens along the coast. Given the weak winds, wind chills will be close to actual temperatures and no cold headlines warranted. Dry conditions prevail. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Key Points: * Gradual warm up into midweek, with highs back in the 40s on Wednesday. * A couple of quick moving low pressure systems brush or impact the area Tuesday night through early Thursday. Best chance for wintry precipitation will be northwest of NYC on Wednesday, but even these locations likely change to plain rain. High pressure over the region shifts offshore on Tuesday, and SW flow sets up by the afternoon. This will help modify air mass in place, first for coastal areas from the marine influence with SSTs still around 50, then regionwide by Wednesday with persistent WAA. So while Tuesday remains unseasonably cold, temperatures climb above the freezing mark into the mid to upper 30s along the coast by afternoon, with upper 20s inland. A more active pattern begins to develop into midweek as a series of shortwaves move east in the progressive upper flow, introducing a couple of chances for precipitation. First system quickly passes through New England Tuesday night, though limited moisture and weak forcing this far south should keep most dry. Best chance of seeing any light snow is across southeast CT, though PoPs here sit at only chance (25-30%), and wouldn't be surprised if most remain entirely dry. Any coastal precip could mix with or fall as light rain given marginal BL temperatures, but again, QPF is light, a few hundredths at most. This first system quickly scoots away north and east, with a more potent shortwave following behind it Wednesday into Wednesday night. This will bring a better chance for a more widespread precipitation, though with a warming column, the bulk of the precip looks to fall as rain, particularly along the coast. North and west of NYC, ptype could start out as snow, or a mix, until the WAA wins out enough to force a changeover to plain rain. Any accumulation is likely either light or negligible before the changeover and temperatures Wednesday look to get into the 40s for most. Wind speeds increase Wednesday afternoon with the associated LLJ moving overhead, and leaned on NBM90 for winds in this period given the guidance's low bias with these regimes. After the initial wave, dry slot likely comes in later Wednesday, and any lingering precip likely tapers as a light rain as conditions dry out further Wed Night into thursday behind the attendant cold frontal passage. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Key Points: * Temperatures will be at least several degrees below normal Thursday through Saturday, then trend even colder early next week. * A clipper low will pass to the south Friday night into Saturday morning, with a chance of light snow. This still does not look like a significant winter weather event. It will be brisk and cold Thursday into Friday after a cold frontal passage, and as the pressure gradient tightens up between high pressure building to our southwest and low pressure intensifying over eastern Canada. Winds relax Friday afternoon as the high moves off the Southeast coast. ECMWF and its ensemble are consistent on the idea of a clipper low passing to the south Fri night/Sat but not on its track or strength, with the 07/12Z cycle showing the low passing just south of the CWA and delivering a light snowfall capable of meeting advisory criteria inland, while the 00Z cycle shows northern stream energy much slower to enter the picture, allowing shortwave ridging in its advance over Ontario to shunt the low even farther south, with minimal snowfall. Incoming 12Z ECMWF is in between these two ideas, so less suppressed but still lighter on potential snowfall. So the overall idea is that the energy with this system looks too disjointed to be capable of delivering more than a sub-advisory light snowfall. More importantly, colder air will come in behind this system for early next week, with already below normal temps dropping to 10 or more degrees below normal for Sunday and Monday. e. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... High pressure will build in from the west this afternoon and settle over the terminals tonight. VFR prevails. N to NNW winds with gusts up to around 25 kt. Can not rule out a few occasional gusts to near 30 kt. N winds begin to diminish this afternoon, with gusts ending towards 20-21z as high pressure builds in from the west. Winds fall below 10kt this evening and become light and variable early Tuesday morning. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... An occasional gust to 30 kt can not be ruled through early afternoon. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... Tuesday afternoon: VFR. SW gusts 15-20 kt late day/evening. Wednesday: MVFR or lower possible with a chance of rain/snow across interior Lower Hudson Valley early. Then a chance of rain during the afternoon and into the evening. S-SW 10-15g25-30 kt possible. Thursday: VFR. W gusts 20-25 kt. Friday: Mainly VFR. MVFR possible in any rain or snow showers late in the day or at night. W gusts around 20 kt. Saturday: Brief MVFR possible east early, otherwise VFR. W gusts 20- 25kt. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... Gusty N winds diminish into late day and conditions lower below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) criteria on non ocean waters by late afternoon and on the ocean by early evening as high pressure builds over the region. A series of clipper systems will then impact the waters Tuesday night through Wednesday night. A brief period of gales remains possible on the ocean Tuesday evening and night, before a better chance of gales develops Wednesday afternoon and evening. SCA conditions likely on all waters at the least during this period. SCA cond likely on all waters Thu into Thu night, with W-NW flow gusting to 25-30 kt and some gusts on the ocean approaching minimal gale force. Seas Thu AM start out at 8-11 ft E of Fire Island Inlet and 5-8 ft W of there, gradually subsiding to 5-6 ft E and 3-5 ft W by daybreak Fri. Any lull in wind gusts/seas just below 25 kt/5 ft on the ocean late Fri into Fri night will be short lived, as winds increase with passage of a low to our south, and cold air advection in its wake. SCA cond likely on the ocean late Fri night, then developing on all waters Sat afternoon as flow veers from W to NW. Some gusts on the ocean once again could approach minimal gale force Sat night as seas build to 4-7 ft. && .HYDROLOGY... No hydrologic impacts are expected through the week. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ331- 332-335-338-340-345. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ350- 353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BG/DR NEAR TERM...DR SHORT TERM...DR LONG TERM...BG AVIATION...JE MARINE...BG/DR HYDROLOGY...BG/DR