####018005376#### FXUS61 KBTV 241930 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 330 PM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024 .SYNOPSIS... After a strong cold front moved through today, expect cold temperatures tonight with lows in the 20s. Thursday will be dry and sunny, but chilly with highs only in the 40s. Another cold night can be expected Thursday night before a warming trend starts Friday. Rain chances return Saturday evening and last into early next week, though showers would be on and off in nature and a washout on any particular day. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 324 PM EDT Wednesday...Once today's precipitation comes to an end later this afternoon/evening, we'll see drier weather for a few days. The center of a surface anticyclone will remain to our west overnight tonight into Thursday morning, so expect to see some continued northwesterly breezes 5-15 mph tonight that will diminish towards morning. Temperatures tonight will be cold amid strong post-frontal cold air advection. Lows will reach into the upper teens in the colder hollows of the northern Adirondacks and Northeast Kingdom, otherwise expect lows in the 20s elsewhere. These values are within a few degrees of record minimums for some sites, but at this point no record lows are forecast to be broken. The growing season has not yet begun, but anyone with early vulnerable crops should take precautions to protect them for the next couple of nights, especially in places of higher elevation where the coldest temperatures are expected. The center of the high pressure system will gradually edge closer Thursday, allowing for a sunny but chilly spring day with diminishing winds. High temperatures will only top out in the 40s for much of the area, which is a good 10+ degrees below seasonable normals for this time of year. Dewpoints are forecast in the single digits to teens during the afternoon, which will result in minimum relative humidities between 25 and 35 percent. Despite the low relative humidities, winds will be light enough to preclude fire weather concerns. The center of the high will shift directly overhead by Thursday night, setting up ideal radiational cooling conditions. Have continued to trend towards the NBM 10th percentile temperature forecast. Another cold night can be expected with lows in the low to upper 20s...with some isolated lows in the teens possible in the colder hollows. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 324 PM EDT Wednesday...A high pressure system moving into the Labrador Sea will be controlling our weather for the end of the week, with Friday looking like a great day to be outside. Clear skies and light winds will allow temperatures to rise rapidly through the morning hours, reaching into upper 50s in valley locations. Clouds will begin to move in during the overnight hours, keeping temperatures near climatological normal values. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 324 PM EDT Wednesday...A series of shortwaves will make their way over the northeast throughout the remainder of the forecast period, bringing a chance of rain every single day of the long term forecast. The western edge of our CWA could see rain as early as 18z Saturday, with the highest pops occurring just after 00z. By Monday and Tuesday, we'll start seeing above normal temperatures. The current high temperature forecast shows widespread 70s reaching from the Saint Lawrence Valley all the way into the Northeast Kingdom. The additional thermodynamic instability associated with this warming trend could lead to thunderstorm activity in the afternoon of both days. && .AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Through 18Z Thursday...A sharp cold front continues to move through Vermont, just poised to exit to our east over the next couple of hours. As the front moves through, expect a winds to quickly shift out of the north, gusting to 15 to 30 mph for the remainder of the evening. As temperatures rapidly fall along and behind the front, rain showers are transitioning to a brief rain/snow mix behind the front. Showers and MVFR conditions will only continue for a few more hours before drier air moves in and precipitation comes to an end. Expect skies across the forecast area to be VFR by 00Z, and remain VFR through the remainder of the TAF period. Outlook... Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely SHRA. Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Chance SHRA. Sunday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Chance SHRA. Monday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA. && .CLIMATE... Min Temp Records Date KBTV KMPV KMSS KPBG KSLK 04-25 20|1919 17|1965 21|1974 23|2003 10|1956 04-26 20|1919 22|1967 22|1972 23|1972 12|1919 && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Duell NEAR TERM...Duell SHORT TERM...Langbauer LONG TERM...Langbauer AVIATION...Duell CLIMATE...WFO BTV ####018004989#### FXUS63 KILX 241932 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 232 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Temperatures will fall into the 30s across most of central Illinois tonight. There is a 60-80 percent chance of sub- freezing temps from Lacon to Bloomington Rantoul and areas north. - There will be periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms Friday through Sunday. Some storms could be severe (5-15 percent) at times and there is potential (5-15 percent) for locally heavy rain. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 226 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 Through Thursday... High pressure will slowly drift east across the Great Lakes in the near term resulting in continued cooler but otherwise quiet weather conditions across central Illinois in the near term. Some cold air stratocu persists across much of central Illinois this afternoon, but should continue to gradually erode from the edges with mainly portions of east central Illinois holding onto cloud cover late into the evening. Temperatures will fall into the 30s across most of central Illinois overnight into Thursday morning. While there remains some concern that a light easterly gradient or lingering clouds may mitigate frost potential tonight, have enough confidence in temps near the freezing mark to hoist a Frost Advisory for portions of the I-74 corridor Thursday morning. Friday through the weekend... A pair of low pressure systems are progged to lift from the central Great Plains into the Upper Midwest; the first Friday into Saturday, and the second Saturday night through Sunday night. Low level trajectories off of the Gulf of Mexico will allow dew points to rise into the 60s as the first warm front lifts across central Illinois Friday. Dew points further rise into the mid 60s this weekend accompanied by high temperatures near 80 degrees. Increasing cloud cover is expected Friday along with scattered showers and non-severe storms as mid level warm air advection overspreads central Illinois. This will result in only modest diurnal destabilization Friday afternoon with the strongest instability progged to set up well to our west along the KS/MO state line. Storm coverage should increase to our west Friday evening as a low level jet strengthens. Storms will spread east overnight and could bring an accompanying severe weather threat as instability advects into Illinois overnight associated with a veering LLJ. Eastward extent of the severe weather threat remains uncertain but could reach portions of central Illinois. As the first low lifts into the Upper Midwest Saturday, a broad warm sector will in in place across portions of the Mid Mississippi Valley. Forecast soundings show steep low/mid level lapse rates and minimal capping in place Saturday afternoon. Forcing will be a bit nebulous, but shouldn't take much to kick off deep convection. LREF joint probabilities of CAPE >500 J/kg, Cin >-25 J/kg, and deep layer shear >30kt are maximized across central Illinois west of I-55 Friday afternoon around 50 percent. If storms are able to initiate, this appears to be the time frame for highest impacts from severe storms during the Friday-Sunday time frame. Second low begins to take shape Saturday night into Sunday over the Great Plains and will take a similar path as the first low, albeit ever so slightly further east. Similar to the first low, LLJ appears to be focused to our northwest Saturday night, and the strongest instability is also in place to our west lending some uncertainty in whether the severe threat will make it as far east as central Illinois. The trailing cold front will eventually sweep across central Illinois Sunday night into Monday morning marking the back edge of the precip chances. All said through the weekend, mean 72-hr QPF amounts through Monday morning look to total between 1 and 2 inches for most of central Illinois with highest amounts in the west. 90th percentile amounts peak between 3-4 inches west of the Illinois River and would not be suprised to see some localized swaths of these higher end amounts. Deubelbeiss && .AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Thursday Afternoon) Issued at 1234 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 High pressure will very gradually shift east across the Great Lakes tonight and Thursday resulting in NE winds slowly veering to SE across central Illinois. MVFR ceilings across the region will linger into the afternoon, longest at DEC and CMI, but should eventually scatter back to VFR. VFR conditions should then prevail the remainder of the period. Deubelbeiss && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 AM CDT Thursday for ILZ030-031-038-043>046. && $$ ####018005955#### FXUS62 KCHS 241934 AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 334 PM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A weak trough will drop into the region tonight into Thursday. High pressure builds back into the region late week through the early part of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Upper level trough and associated surface low is swinging through New England this afternoon with a trailing boundary/ surface trough arcing down into the mid-Atlantic and Appalachia and further into northern Georgia. Modest moisture ribbon is stretched out ahead of the trough with PWAT values around one inch and a band of cloud cover with bases mainly above 5K feet. There is some light precip moving through parts of North Carolina and spotty radar returns in northern Georgia. But otherwise, relatively benign conditions exist across the region. Tonight: Surface trough/wind shift line will be sliding down through the region late this evening through early Thursday morning. As noted in previous discussions, model guidance and forecast soundings remain very unimpressive from a precip potential standpoint, showing a layer of cloud cover (2-3K feet thick) passing through the region superimposed along a corridor of weak lower level QG-forcing for ascent, but fairly dry layers above and below. Thus, it's difficult to imagine that we will get much in the way of measurable precip. That said, high- resolution guidance sources continue to show spotty showers/ sprinkles along the trough dipping into the northern part of the forecast area before dissipating. So, we have opted to retain low end (isolated) precip chances largely in the 03Z to 09Z timeframe and for just across the far northern part of the forecast area. Lows Thursday morning will range from the mid-upper 50s inland to the lower-mid 60s at the beaches and Downtown Charleston. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A weak front/trough will push offshore as a wedge of high pressure builds south Thursday. Aloft, a large omega block will begin to set up with amplifying troughs over the Western Atlantic and Western U.S. A ridge axis over the Central U.S will gradually shift toward the Eastern Seaboard, and settle in place through at least the first half of the weekend. Overall, quiet weather is expected with little to no forcing; however models generate a few light showers at times with onshore flow. Slight chance PoPs are in place for Friday afternoon across inland southeast Georgia where there has been some persistence, but otherwise the chance for measurable rainfall was low enough to preclude mention in the forecast. High temperatures remain within a few degrees of normal, generally in the upper 70s to lower 80s each day. Lows both nights range from the mid/upper 50s inland to the mid 60s along the immediate coast. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... The pattern remains largely unchanged through the early week with the omega block and deep high pressure in place. This favors increasing temperatures and virtually zero rain chances. The upper ridge axis will finally begin to shift offshore Tuesday as a weakening trough and accompanying weak cold front moves into the eastern U.S. It should be another dry day across much of the area, however a few showers could impact inland areas during the latter half of the day. Temperatures will start the period in the upper 70s/low 80s and will rise to the upper 80s/near 90F by the middle of the next week. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... 24/18z TAF Discussion: KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: Solid VFR conditions will prevail through the period. There is a touch of smoke across the region that will cycle through today along with a few afternoon clouds. Weak southward moving surface trough will bring a band of thicker VFR cloud cover down into the region tonight. Some very spotty showers or sprinkles are possible along the trough, mainly across parts of southeast South Carolina. We continue to carry VCSH for both KCHS and KJZI later this evening to highlight this. No impacts are expected. Winds veer into the north behind the trough for Thursday. Extended Aviation Outlook: Prevailing VFR. && .MARINE... Southwest winds will diminish to near 10 kt overnight as a surface trough slips south into the local marine areas. A few showers could impact mainly the South Santee-Edisto Beach nearshore leg and Charleston Harbor during the overnight hours, although the overall precip potential is very low. Seas will average 2-3 ft in the nearshore waters out to 20 NM and the 3-4 ft over the Georgia offshore leg out 20-60 NM. Thursday through Monday: Winds will shift ENE Thursday and then persist through late week as high pressure builds from the north. Brief surge will bring winds to the 15-20 kt range Friday afternoon/evening. Seas in turn will build to 2-4 ft across the nearshore waters out to 20 nm and 5-6 feet across the outer Georgia waters. A Small Craft Advisory could be needed for that particular marine zone for a brief period overnight Friday. Winds veer more southerly early next week with no additional marine concerns. Rip Currents: Lingering swell, onshore winds and lunar influences will continue to support a moderate risk for rip currents for all beaches through early evening. && .EQUIPMENT... The KCLX radar is undergoing electrical maintenance and is tentatively scheduled to return to service April 26th. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...Adam SHORT TERM...BRM LONG TERM...BRM AVIATION...Adam/BRM MARINE...Adam/BRM