####018011550#### FXUS61 KBTV 121846 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 146 PM EST Fri Dec 12 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Upslope snow showers will eventually taper off this afternoon and evening, leading to a brief dry period lasting into tomorrow morning. A clipper will bring snow showers and a brief lake effect band for Saturday and Sunday. The colder and active pattern will continue for a few more days, with a few additional chances for snow, though no big snowstorms are expected. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 143 PM EST Friday...While upslope snow is still ongoing along the north and central Green Mountains, snow showers have begun to taper off across the Adirondacks, with the northern Greens tapering off by later this afternoon. Additional snow through this evening will only be up 2 inches, mainly confined to the immediate vicinity of Jay Peak. Winds will remain on the breezy side this afternoon before weakening towards midnight. Gusts up to 20-25 mph are still likely for at least a few more hours today. As deep layer moisture retreats to the northeast some shallow moisture may become trapped under an inversion tonight, especially in areas with open water ponds and lakes, which could lead to some localized patchy fog, though the coverage of such fog will be minimal and is left out of the current weather grids. Brief ridging will move over the area tonight, but cloud cover will remain on the broken to overcast side for most locations which should help reduce the effects of raditional cooling. Overnight lows will fall to the single digits 5-10F with mid teens in the locations around the unfrozen portions of Lake Champlain. A transient clipper will slide east into the region by Saturday with more southwesterly flow. A passing weak warm front will lead to some open wave energy across portions of eastern Vermont Saturday, subsequently leading to some scattered chances of light snow around noon. A dusting to a quick coating is possible. Further west into the St. Lawrence Valley, southwest flow with marginal instability will help a brief weak lake effect snow band develop off Lake Ontario early Saturday morning. With instability weak, and marginal surface temperatures, the band will be strongest closer to Lake Ontario, with only a localized 1-3" of snow possible in extreme southern St. Lawrence County. Some periodic gusts up to 20 mph will also accompany the lake effect band. The band peaks by midday Saturday and will shift south quickly by the afternoon. This band shift will be the result of a passing cold front during the daytime hours on Saturday. While moisture starved, models do show some instability, around 100 J/kg of CAPE, with marginal convergence. A light to moderate band of snow showers, with a chance for some embedded snow squalls is possible. However, the conducive thermal profiles and dynamics of the environment drop off rapidly as the boundary slides east into the Adirondacks. An additional quick 0.5" of snow is possible in areas outside of the lake effect band in northern New York. The band looks to become disorganized and somewhat fall apart as it pushes east into Vermont, with perhaps some upslope snow under blocked flow against the northern spine of the Greens. Most places in Vermont will only see a dusting to 0.5" of snow from this system. Snow showers quickly slide northeast and taper off areawide by Saturday evening with some flurries in the Greens in Vermont and the central Adirondacks. Temperatures during the day Saturday will warm into the mid to upper 20, to near freezing in the wider valleys. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 143 PM EST Friday...Saturday night will once again be on the below average side of the temperature scale with values in the single digits in New York and low teens in Vermont. Winds will pivot to the northwest on Sunday as the overarching trough slides overhead with modest caa keeping temperatures in the teens to low 20s. Drier conditions will filter some continued upslope snow showers confined to the northern Greens. Large scale troughing will still be attempting to cross the region during the day Sunday which will help to keep clouds in place across the region, but more on the scattered to broken side and not as low with deep layer moisture absent. Overnight Sunday lows will fall to near zero for many locations, especially in the Adirondacks where the colder hollows could dip into the negatives. Caa overnight Sunday will be accompanied by a decent low level jet at 3000ft which will push mountain summit winds to 25-30 mph. Some enhancement from downsloping may produce some locally gusty winds in the eastern facing slopes of the Adirondacks and southern Greens. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 143 PM EST Friday...The next chance of snow will begin Monday afternoon, with impacts minor and relatively localized. A narrow ridge will move through the region Monday morning, causing flow to shift from northwesterly to southwesterly during the day. Some light snow will develop across the eastern Great Lakes region in response to the next shortwave, positively-tilted trough and some ample low level warm, moist air advection. It should reach northern New York during the afternoon, especially evening hours. So some difficult travel is possible for the evening commute in our western areas. Scattered snow showers will likely progress eastward ahead of the systems's surface trough, while a more potent lake band develops with a localized area of heavier snow possible in our typical zone of southeastern St. Lawrence and adjacent southern Franklin County in New York. Outside of this band, expect relatively light snow showers with accumulations primarily in higher elevations due to the antecedent cold, dry air in place and lack of a significant front/low level convergence. Note it will be another cold day, especially in Vermont given the later timing of the southwesterly wind shift. Average 925 millibar temperatures Monday will start out near the climatological 5th percentile, or roughly -16 Celsius, and rise to near the 20th percentile, or about -11 Celsius, by the evening. High temperatures look reasonable in the low to mid teens in many locations, with upper 10s to near 20 in the wide valleys. Main story for the long term beyond this system will be the well- advertised warm up from Tuesday through Thursday. Below normal temperatures are expected Tuesday once again, but then there is strong model agreement on a short thaw as low level temperatures reach above normal values by Wednesday afternoon. There is pretty good model agreement this pattern change will lead to temperatures aloft at 850 millibars reaching near or above freezing by Wednesday morning, especially southern areas. Aside from an outlier model solution dominated by the GEPS ensemble, even the warmer solutions (90th percentile) during this period are only about 2 degrees Celsius, so not much of a thaw in higher elevations will occur. Then as we move into Thursday, while temperatures are strongly favored to be mild (most likely highs in the upper 30s to low 40s), again even the warmest solutions are not extreme as the upper air pattern is unlikely to be particularly amplified. More importantly, will note that one model cluster, favored by nearly half of the GEFS members in the most recent 00Z cycle and consistent with the 12Z GFS, showed a colder situation for Thursday. That could set up a risk of a mixed precipitation event (snow to rain with a zone of sleet/freezing rain in between) as there is high certainty of widespread precipitation at some point on Thursday. Given that this event is still almost a week out, please monitor the forecast as it will likely change. && .AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Through 18Z Saturday...Snow showers continue at SLK/EFK/MPV. Persistent IFR conditions/steadier snow at SLK will trend towards intermittent as depth of moisture decreases. Meanwhile EFK/MPV have already trended towards intermittent snow showers and prevailing MVFR conditions along with brief IFR visibilities. Some MVFR CIGs will probably continue after snow showers taper off, especially at SLK, in association with favorable southwesterly low level flow for maintaining low clouds. Other sites will be VFR, although a low (40% or less) chance of MVFR CIGs at BTV and RUT exists given cloud bases near 3000 feet. At MSS, mainly clear skies early in the period will trend overcast with chances for MVFR ceilings increasing mainly after 06Z along with snow shower chances, especially towards 12Z. Winds are somewhat variable at the moment with terrain influences, but generally remain out of the west around 5 to 10 knots with 15-20 knot gusts gradually dying off through 00Z. Overnight, winds will shift southerly. Between 12Z and 18Z the south winds will ramp up into the 5 to 11 knot range with gusts to around 20 knots, especially at MSS, SLK, and BTV. Outlook... Saturday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHSN. Sunday: VFR. Slight chance SHSN. Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN. Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Windy with gusts to 30 kt. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance SHSN. && .MARINE... Gusty westerly to northwesterly winds will continue today for a few more hours. Sustained winds will generally range between 20-25 KT, before eventually dropping into the 5-15 KT range by Friday evening. The larger westerly component to the winds will limit waves a bit, but they will still generally be in the 1-3 foot range tonight. Lower winds tonight will lower waves down to around 1 foot. && .EQUIPMENT... NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt. Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non-operational at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG 546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz. Equipment malfunctions at the Colchester Reef meteorological station will likely leave it inoperable for an extended period of time. This site is not serviced by the NWS. Technicians do not currently have an estimated return to service for this station. Use extra caution when navigating the broad waters of Lake Champlain, and please contact us if you observe winds significantly deviating from the forecast. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Danzig NEAR TERM...Danzig SHORT TERM...Danzig LONG TERM...Kutikoff AVIATION...Kutikoff MARINE...Team BTV EQUIPMENT...Team BTV ####018005877#### FXUS61 KILN 121846 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 146 PM EST Fri Dec 12 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A system will move across the area Saturday into Saturday night which will result in accumulating snow area wide. Bitterly cold air will come in behind the snow and last into Monday. This will be followed by a substantial warm up through midweek. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Weak surface ridging between systems will persist through much of the period. That will get nudged southwards towards daybreak Saturday as the next system approaches. While there are breaks in the clouds in central Ohio to start the period, these will fill in with considerable cloud cover area wide from late afternoon through the night. Temperatures will fall into the 20s. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Cold front will slide across the area on Saturday, laying out in a more west southwest-east northeast orientation through the day. This will result in falling temperatures through the afternoon. Robust short wave will quickly move from the upper Mississippi Valley southeast across the area through the period. Mid level frontogenesis out ahead of this system will spread a shield of snow across the forecast area from late morning through the afternoon, primarily north of the Ohio River. This will then sag southeast across the rest of the area during the evening and end towards midnight. There continue to be some minor variations in the guidance suite, but overall there is pretty good consensus that heaviest snowfall amounts will occur between I-70 and the Ohio River with an axis of 3" to 5". This is pretty close to where the previous winter storm watch was oriented. Opted to upgrade at this time. That is a little bit complicated because winter storm warning criteria changes from south to north within this axis. Outside of the former watch area, we have gone ahead and issued a winter weather advisory. There still could be some fluctuations in amounts that could cause the warning area to be adjusted as the event gets closer. Even though snow tapers off through the evening, impacts will likely continue through the overnight, so the warning/advisory extends all of the way through 7 am Sunday. Arctic airmass will pour into the region in the wake of the snow. Air temperatures will drop into the single digits. With winds of 10 to 15 mph, apparent temperatures will fall below zero with much of the Whitewater and Miami Valleys getting to 10 below or colder. Will likely need a cold weather advisory for these conditions, but there still is a bit of time before needing to make that decision. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Arctic high pressure will build into the area Sunday and Sunday night. Very high confidence of temperatures being at least 20 degrees below normal. Coldest part of the airmass will be across eastern Indiana and western Ohio counties. These areas have a greater than 80 percent chance of apparent temperatures 10 below or colder Sunday morning. Probabilities of reaching this threshold drop off to 20 percent or less from the Scioto Valley into northeast Kentucky. Frigid temperatures will persist into Monday. Air temperatures Monday morning will be similar to those of Sunday morning but the apparent temperature will not be as cold Monday morning since there will be little, if any, wind at that point. Once the high moves off, there will be an extended period of southerly low level flow with the mid level flow becoming zonal. This will result in a substantial warming trend. Temperatures will warm around 10 degrees both Tuesday and Wednesday and another 5 degrees or so on Thursday. Probability of having above normal temperatures by Thursday is over 70 percent. Highs 50 or greater probabilities range from 30 to 80 percent. A cold front is forecast to cross the area on Thursday bringing rain showers. There is some variability within the guidance suite concerning timing and strength. Most guidance pushes the front through the area by Thursday night with high pressure building in for Friday, dropping temperatures back closer to or slightly below normal. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... While a few sites have popped up to VFR to start the period, expect this to be short lived. MVFR ceilings will prevail, primarily below 2kft except at the Columbus terminals. Ceilings are forecast to lower after 06Z, although there is uncertainty exactly when that will happen. This will bring IFR conditions to all but KCMH/KLCK. Snow may spread into KDAY and KILN at the very end of the period with a substantial deterioration in conditions just beyond these TAFs. OUTLOOK...Snow with IFR to LIFR conditions expected Saturday afternoon and evening. Ceilings will lift to MVFR after the snow ends late Saturday night. These ceilings may linger into Sunday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM Saturday to 7 AM EST Sunday for OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>062. Winter Storm Warning from 1 PM Saturday to 7 AM EST Sunday for OHZ063>065-070>074-077>082-088. KY...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM Saturday to 7 AM EST Sunday for KYZ089-090-094>100. Winter Storm Warning from 1 PM Saturday to 7 AM EST Sunday for KYZ091>093. IN...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM Saturday to 7 AM EST Sunday for INZ050-058-059-080. Winter Storm Warning from 1 PM Saturday to 7 AM EST Sunday for INZ066-073>075. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION... ####018006985#### FXUS61 KCAR 121848 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 148 PM EST Fri Dec 12 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Weak high pres builds in tonight, then exits to the E on Sat. Low pres tracks E of Nova Scotia Sun. High pres builds across the region Mon into Tue before another low pressure system passes to the north on Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Main Point: * Reductions to visibility from blowing snow will quickly improve this evening; winds will taper off overnight Discussion: A tight pressure gradient remains over the forecast area into this evening, resulting in gusty winds throughout the CWA and blowing snow across the north. This pressure gradient will begin to relax into the overnight hours. As winds begin to decrease, compaction and settling from the blowing snow earlier in the day will create a crust on the snow pack limiting the ability for snow to be lofted without a further increase in winds, and the reduction in visibility due to blowing snow will quickly improve. Patchy blowing snow and drifting snow may last for a couple more hours past sunset this evening, but all snow movement should rapidly cease into the overnight hours as winds improve and the snow pack crusts over. A narrow ridge of high pressure will crest over the forecast area on Saturday, and return flow will lead to temperatures lifting into the low to mid 20s in the north and around freezing Downeast. Low pressure approaches from the west Saturday night, and another round of light snow showers could result over the CWA late overnight. The greatest chance for any light accumulation will be Downeast, closer to the developing coastal low pressure. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Key Messages -Breezy and cold Monday On Sunday, a positively tilted upper level trough will be moving through the northeast. At the surface, weakening low pressure moving from the Great Lakes region will be just to our north. Further south over the waters, a strengthening low pressure system will pass well south of the Maine coast. The offshore low may get close enough for some light snow over the waters and snow showers along the coast but not expecting any notable impacts from the system. Over northern Maine, the weakening low may support some isolated snow showers but likely not snow squalls due to the minimal instability. Precipitation should clear out by Monday morning as a ridge of high pressure briefly builds in to the area. A pressure gradient between the strengthening offshore low and the high moving in is likely to result in some windy conditions Monday. On Monday night, a weakening cold front approaches from the west. Even as the cold front falls apart there should be enough support for a few light snow showers over northern and central Maine. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Key Messages -Warming trend through late next week with above normal temperatures -A possible rain system late week (but considerable uncertainty right now) Precipitation clears out Tuesday with high pressure building in. Low pressure passes to the north on Wednesday with a cold front crossing the state Wednesday night which should result in some snow showers, mainly over the north. Some timing differences still exist and there is some discrepancy in whether or not there will be enough warm air advection for some areas to see rain showers, rather than snow showers. Current thinking is that most areas will see snow. Regardless, the warm air advection ahead of the front should lead to above normal, and possibly above freezing, temperatures. The warming trend is likely to continue Thursday as southerly flow ahead of another system fosters more warm air advection. There is considerable uncertainty in regards to what this late week system might look like. Currently, most of the GEFS and EPS ensemble members are showing a rain event as a strong low passes to our north while some GEFS members favor a more southerly track and a greater potential for snow. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR cigs continue through this evening, while vis alternates between MVFR and VFR depending on BLSN across northern terminals. Downeast terminals remain VFR through this evening. W winds 10 to 20 kts with gusts 25 to 30 kts late this afternoon will gradually decrease into the night, resulting in a few hours of LLWS around 40 kts before a nocturnal inversion fully develops. Winds will continue to diminish Saturday, becoming SW 5 to 10 kts and then light and variable Saturday night. VFR conditions continue into Saturday night, with a lowering towards MVFR late in any snow showers. SHORT TERM: Sunday...VFR/MVFR, occasional IFR, with a chance of light snow or snow showers. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming northwest/north. Sunday night...VFR/MVFR with a chance of snow showers. Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to around 20 knots. Monday...VFR. Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts 20 to 25 knots. Monday night...VFR/MVFR north. A slight chance of snow showers north Monday night through early Tuesday. VFR Downeast. Northwest/west winds 5 to 10 knots. Tuesday...VFR/MVFR north with a slight chance of snow showers early. VFR south. West winds around 5 knots. Tuesday night...VFR/MVFR north. VFR south. S/Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Gale conditions continue over the waters this afternoon with gusts 35 to 40 kts. Winds will gradually begin to taper off into this evening as high pressure rolls into the area, with the intracoastal waters falling to small craft advisory criteria this evening and the coastal waters falling to SCA criteria after midnight tonight. Conditions will continue to improve into the day on Saturday, with winds and seas falling below SCA Levels through the morning. Seas 4 to 5 ft and gusts 25 to 30 kts may return over the coastal waters briefly Saturday evening, but will be quick to disperse overnight Saturday night. SHORT TERM: Winds increase to small craft advisory conditions Sunday afternoon with gales likely Sunday night through Monday. Seas peak at 5 to 7 ft Monday. Winds and seas subside below small craft advisory conditions Monday night. Winds increase again to small craft advisory conditions Tuesday night with gales also possible. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Gale Warning until midnight EST tonight for ANZ050-051. Gale Warning until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ052. && $$ Near Term...AES Short Term...SM Long Term...SM Aviation...AES/SM Marine...AES/SM ####018004252#### FZPQ50 PGUM 121850 SRFGUM Surf Zone Forecast for the Mariana Islands National Weather Service Tiyan GU 450 AM ChST Sat Dec 13 2025 .DISCUSSION...There will be a high risk of rip currents along east facing reefs this weekend, which will then spread to north facing reefs Sunday and require a high surf advisory. $$ GUZ001-MPZ001>003-131000- Guam-Rota-Tinian-Saipan- 450 AM ChST Sat Dec 13 2025 36 hour Surf Zone Forecast for the Marianas from 600 AM Saturday through 600 PM Sunday .TODAY... Rip Current Risk.....High *. Surf Height North facing reefs............6 to 8 feet. East facing reefs............7 to 9 feet. South facing reefs............2 to 4 feet. West facing reefs............2 to 4 feet. Swell/Period Primary swell................Northeast at 4 to 6 feet. Primary period...............8 seconds. Secondary swell..............Northeast at around 3 feet. Secondary period.............9 seconds. Water Temperature Ritidian buoy..........85 Degrees. Max Heat Index.........Around 100. Winds...............East at 10 to 20 mph. .TONIGHT... Rip Current Risk.....High *. Surf Height North facing reefs............6 to 8 feet. East facing reefs............8 to 10 feet. South facing reefs............2 to 4 feet. West facing reefs............2 to 4 feet. Swell/Period Primary swell................Northeast at 4 to 6 feet. Primary period...............8 seconds. Secondary swell..............Northeast at around 3 feet. Secondary period.............8 seconds. Winds...............Breezy. East at 15 to 25 mph. .SUNDAY... Rip Current Risk.....High. Pounding surf will produce life threatening rip currents at reefs and beaches. Surf Height North facing reefs............7 to 9 feet. East facing reefs............8 to 10 feet. South facing reefs............2 to 4 feet. West facing reefs............2 to 4 feet. Swell/Period Primary swell................Northeast at 5 to 7 feet. Primary period...............8 seconds. Max Heat Index.........Around 100. Winds...............Breezy. East at 15 to 25 mph. Tide information for the next 36 hours... At Apra Harbor, Guam... Low tide 0.6 feet at 8:05 AM Saturday High tide 2.1 feet at 3:03 PM Saturday Low tide 0.5 feet at 10:02 PM Saturday High tide 1.4 feet at 4:00 AM Sunday Low tide 0.9 feet at 9:03 AM Sunday High tide 2.1 feet at 3:33 PM Sunday Low tide 0.2 feet at 10:46 PM Sunday At Rota Island... Low tide 0.5 feet at 7:59 AM Saturday High tide 2.0 feet at 3:00 PM Saturday Low tide 0.5 feet at 9:56 PM Saturday High tide 1.3 feet at 3:57 AM Sunday Low tide 0.8 feet at 8:57 AM Sunday High tide 1.9 feet at 3:30 PM Sunday Low tide 0.2 feet at 10:40 PM Sunday At Tinian Island... Low tide 0.2 feet at 7:42 AM Saturday High tide 1.5 feet at 3:01 PM Saturday Low tide 0.2 feet at 9:39 PM Saturday High tide 1.0 feet at 3:58 AM Sunday Low tide 0.3 feet at 8:40 AM Sunday High tide 1.5 feet at 3:31 PM Sunday Low tide 0.1 feet at 10:23 PM Sunday At Tanapag Harbor, Saipan... Low tide 0.8 feet at 8:17 AM Saturday High tide 2.1 feet at 3:12 PM Saturday Low tide 0.6 feet at 10:19 PM Saturday High tide 1.5 feet at 4:33 AM Sunday Low tide 1.1 feet at 9:15 AM Sunday High tide 2.1 feet at 3:43 PM Sunday Low tide 0.4 feet at 10:56 PM Sunday * Low Risk of rip currents - Strong currents can still occur near jetties and reef channels. Always have a flotation device with you in the water. Moderate Risk of rip currents - Wave conditions support stronger or more frequent rip currents. Always have a flotation device with you in the water. High Risk of rip currents - Large waves will produce strong rip currents, especially along narrow reefs and beaches. Rip currents will be life threatening. If caught in a rip current, swim parallel to the beach rather than against the current. $$ ####018007969#### FXCA62 TJSJ 121850 AFDSJU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 250 PM AST Fri Dec 12 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 250 PM AST Fri Dec 12 2025 * Choppy to rough seas and life-threatening rip currents are expected to continue through the weekend.across the islands, particularly from Friday through Sunday. * Breezy to locally windy conditions are expected across the islands this weekend. * Patches of moisture from the east will reach the islands later tonight into tomorrow and then tomorrow evening into early Sunday, increasing passing shower activity. Limited afternoon convection possible over northwest PR. * For the U.S. Virgin Islands, passing showers will increase in frequency later tonight through Saturday. * A nearby frontal system over the western Atlantic and an associated upper level trough will promote more unstable conditions to start the next workweek. && .Short Term(This evening through Sunday)... Issued at 241 PM AST Fri Dec 12 2025 During the early morning hours, a surface disturbance moved across the region, producing isolated showers over the windward sectors of Puerto Rico. Rainfall totals generally reached around half an inch, with isolated areas receiving up to 1 inch across northern and eastern Puerto Rico. Radar estimates indicated only minimal accumulations across the U.S. Virgin Islands. Afterwards, mainly fair weather prevailed, as shown by radar and satellite imagery, with a drier airmass settling over the region. The 12Z sounding measured 1.5 inches of precipitable water, but more recent satellite data indicates values closer to 1.00 inch. Daytime highs reached the mid to upper 80s, with some coastal stations reporting low 90s. Across the higher elevations of Puerto Rico, temperatures remained in the 70s to low 80s. Winds became breezy, with several coastal stations recording gusts between 25 and 30 mph out of the east to southeast. The short-term forecast remains on track, with variable weather conditions and breezy winds expected to persist through the weekend. Surface high pressure will strengthen and linger over the central Atlantic, supporting increasing east to southeasterly winds and breezy to locally windy conditions across the islands, at least through next Sunday. Model guidance continues to indicate increasing moisture due to disturbances moving through the trade winds, one tonight and another from Saturday evening into early Sunday. During the daytime hours each day, lower precipitable waters (PWAT) values will dominate, fluctuating between below-normal and above- normal levels. As a result, mainly fair weather is expected, with only limited shower activity across western Puerto Rico (low chance), while the U.S. Virgin Islands and the windward sectors of Puerto Rico will see moderate to high chances of nighttime and early- morning showers. The highest moisture content, ranging from 1.8 to 2.0 inches (above normal), is expected Saturday afternoon and night. During this period, there will be a limited flooding risk across eastern Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, with the potential for ponding on roads, poor drainage issues, and a low chance of urban and small-stream flooding. During the rest of the period, there are no flooding concerns anticipated. A southeasterly wind pattern will continue to bring warmer air, leading to above- normal temperatures in the short term. However, the overall heat threat is expected to remain low for the remainder of the period. && .Long Term(Monday through Friday)... Issued at 518 AM AST Fri Dec 12 2025 Global models have a wetter solution than previous days with the approaching frontal system over the western Atlantic and associated upper level trough promoting more unstable conditions through first part of the workweek. The 500 mb temperatures are expected to drop to around -6.5C and the precipitable water content is expected to remain near 1.75 inches, above normal levels for most of the period. The mid-to upper-level ridge is now expected to erode earlier and have little influence in the local weather conditions. Pooling of normal to above normal moisture content over the area will lead to weak surface troughs to move from the east on most days, increasing the chance of showers between 50-70% each day across the islands, with a slight chance of thunderstorm development over western PR in the afternoon hours. However, decided to not include them in the forecast as of now due to possible model variations. At the surface, a broad high pressure will linger near and south of the Azores through the long term period. Meanwhile, a cold front over the western Atlantic should remain north of the region early in the forecast. This will promote a southeasterly wind flow, leading to warmer than normal temperatures before the onset of afternoon showers. Another surface high pressure is expected to build behind the front and over the western Atlantic during the second part of the week, bringing east to northeast trades and a cooler air mass. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 250 PM AST Fri Dec 12 2025 VFR conditions for the terminals. E-SE winds at 13-20 kts, with gusts up to 28 kts through 12/23Z, decreasing after. An increase in VCSH/-SHRA is forecast during the overnight hours, these can promote brief MVFR conditions over eastern terminals. As VCSH/-SHRA move over the region, winds will increase again after around 13/13-14Z to 13-20 kt from the E-SE, with higher gusts and sea breeze variations. && .MARINE... Issued at 250 PM AST Fri Dec 12 2025 A surface high pressure system will continue to build near the Azores through the weekend. A weak cold front and another surface high pressure system will move from the western Atlantic into the central Atlantic over the next few days. This pattern will promote moderate to locally fresh east to southeast trade winds across the local waters. Increasing winds and a long-period northerly swell will result in choppy to rough seas, mainly across the Atlantic waters and portions of the Anegada and Mona Passages. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect at least through tomorrow morning across the passages and through Sunday afternoon across the offshore Atlantic waters. && .BEACH FORECAST... Issued at 250 PM AST Fri Dec 12 2025 A long-period northerly swell and increasing wind waves will create life-threatening rip currents along the north and east facing beaches of the islands over the next few days. A Rip Current Statement remains in effect for the northwest to northeast beaches of Puerto Rico, including Culebra, as well as St. Thomas and St. John. Beachgoers are urged to avoid swimming in these conditions, particularly through the rest of today and Saturday. The west and south-facing beaches of the islands will experience a moderate risk of rip currents. For specific location information, please visit weather.gov/beach/sju. && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...High Rip Current Risk through Saturday afternoon for PRZ001-002- 005-008. High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for PRZ012. VI...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for VIZ001. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM AST Sunday for AMZ711. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM AST this evening for AMZ712-716. Small Craft Advisory until noon AST Saturday for AMZ723. Small Craft Advisory until midnight AST tonight for AMZ741. && $$ SHORT TERM...YZR LONG TERM...DS AVIATION...MRR