####018005656#### FXUS61 KCTP 070905 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 405 AM EST Sun Dec 7 2025 .SYNOPSIS... * Light snow over the northwest Alleghenies and Laurel Highlands this afternoon/evening comes to an end by late tonight * Cold day on Monday precedes bitterly cold to frigid conditions Monday night into Tuesday morning * Brief thaw Wednesday allows for mixed precip followed by an arctic resurgence and enhanced snow/wind chances late week && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... IR sat loop shows widespread low cloud cover blanketing CPA early this morning. These clouds are holding temps several degrees warmer vs. NBM/prev fcst. Northern stream trough tracking across the Great Lakes into northern New England will bring light snow to the NW Alleghenies during the afternoon into the first part of tonight. The synoptically forced snow will end as lake effect snow showers early tonight. Snowfall amounts continue to trend lower with <1" now fcst along parts of the Allegheny Front. Much colder air will filter into the area tonight as modified arctic high migrates eastward from the Upper Midwest. Low clouds could linger in the northern tier and over the Laurels while other locations partially clear out. Min temps are fcst in 10-20F range for most of the CWA with single digits possible in the NW mtns. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... 1030mb high migrating over CPA will ensure dry and cold wx on Monday. Daytime highs are fcst to stay below the freezing mark. A quick moving 500mb trough will track from the TN Valley to the Southeast Coast by Monday afternoon. While this system will not impact CPA, model trends have brought snow much farther north into the WV/MD panhandle. Monday night looks bitterly cold to frigid with lows in the 0-15F range. Dewpoints at KBFD would favor a subzero minT print; however western sites could bottom early and trend neutral to non-diurnal as the sfc ridge axis slides to the east of the Allegheny Front and Blue Ridge Mtns by 12Z Tue. Quick check of daily record low temps does not sound any alarms, but there may still be some room to the downside in the fcst. High pressure shifts east of the I95 corridor by Tuesday afternoon as another low amplitude northern stream trough traverses the Great Lakes. Weak lift and WAA ahead of this disturbance could brush the NW part of the CWA with another light snowfall (<1") by 00Z Wed. By Tuesday night, an intense mid-980s mb clipper low will be racing through WI and into MI by Wednesday morning. WAA out ahead of this anomalously deep, more intense than most clipper (by historical/climatological MSLP standards) is expected to spread accumulating light snow (C-2") across the NW 1/2 of the CWA for the Wednesday morning commute. Mixed ptype issues appear likely initially along the southeast flank of the precip shield. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... The strong clipper low tracks up the St. Lawrence Valley on Wednesday. Gusty SW flow transports milder air into CPA resulting in a brief thaw and rain/wet snow or all rain ptypes with highs 35-45F. Cold front trailing the low will move through Wednesday night, allowing much colder air to return to the forecast area behind a blustery NW flow. This will trigger lake effect/upslope snow into Thursday. Max wind gusts will likely trend higher at shorter ranges. Another vigorous 500mb shortwave trough and clipper system take aim on the area late in the week with a reinforcing shot of arctic air into the weekend. Odds for potential snow and wind impacts are elevated with obvious timing uncertainty at this forecast length. && .AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... MVFR/low-end VFR stratus continues to expand southeastward and now blankets all of central Pennsylvania. HREF probs for IFR ceilings the rest of tonight are highest at JST (80-90%), though a period of IFR is also possible at BFD prior to sunrise. MVFR or VFR conditions will continue farther to the east. Expect MVFR conditions to return to JST after sunrise for at least a few hours. An area of low pressure will track north of Pennsylvania during the day on Sunday, bringing snow showers into northwestern parts of the state for the afternoon. Ceilings will drop to IFR at BFD and JST as the system approaches. The best chance for snow will be at BFD, potentially leading to a period of IFR visibility, but some guidance suggests that the snow showers could make it as far southeast as UNV (<10% chance). Snow comes to an end between 00Z-03Z Monday as high pressure quickly builds in behind the system. Skies will first begin to clear out for the southeastern terminals as a downsloping northwest wind develops, and a trend toward VFR conditions will continue across the rest of the airspace into the early morning. Outlook... Mon...Mainly VFR Tue-Thu...Restrictions possible with snow or mixed ptype, especially across the northern half of Pennsylvania, as multiple low pressure systems track through the northeastern US. Gusts 20-30 kts. && .CLIMATE... Astronomical winter (solstice) begins at 10:03 a.m. on Sunday, December 21st && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl NEAR TERM...Steinbugl SHORT TERM...Steinbugl LONG TERM...Steinbugl AVIATION...Bauco CLIMATE...Steinbugl ####018005182#### FXUS63 KSGF 070907 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 307 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cold front moves through this morning with drizzle lingering through the late morning/afternoon hours. No wintry weather impacts are expected with this activity. - Increasing confidence in a warming trend toward above normal temperatures early next week. Average highs for this time period range from 45 to 50 degrees. Mostly dry weather accompanies this pattern through at least Wednesday. - Strong cold front moves through on Thursday night bringing low chances (10-15%) for wintry precipitation to occur with that front and this is mainly for areas east of Highway 65 and north of I-44. - Highs for Friday and Saturday will be chilly in the 30s with lows in the single digits in some places with overnight wind chills in the single digits/below zero Friday into Saturday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 151 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025 Low-level stratus is starting to build in as the front pushes its way south. It's currently situated over NE KS and northern MO. We still have a few hours before the front is here and starts to switch our winds out of the north. There is some patchy fog out there, but due to the incoming front, winds have stayed elevated enough to prevent dense fog from forming and most visibilities have stayed above 1 mile. Low temperatures have stayed in the upper 30s to lower 40s tonight and winds are still out of the southwest, for now. The rest of today will be mostly cloudy with gusty northerly winds up to 25 mph especially along and west of I-49. Temperatures are forecast to stay in the upper 30s today as the cold air advection takes its time moving through the state. This will end up working in our favor as far as frozen/liquid precipitation is concerned. We do have a 15-20% chance of drizzle for late this morning into early afternoon that will linger behind the frontal passage. The RAP shows widespread drizzle occurring across most of southern MO. Model guidance has low-level moisture over 90%, there will be plenty of lift from the passing front, and cloud ice will depart as the front pushes southeast. We are not expecting any widespread freezing drizzle at this time due to the temperatures staying above 32 F. Though, if the CAA moves south earlier than anticipated or if the drizzle lingers longer than expected into the evening hours, then we could see the opportunity for freezing drizzle to form. However, there is low confidence in those scenarios occurring but the chance for it to happen is not 0%. We will continue to monitor the timing of the front and assess how quickly temperatures drop as well. No other wintry accumulations or impacts are expected at this time. Tonight will mostly cloudy and chilly with lows in the 20s across the area. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 151 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025 Monday-Wednesday: A surface high starts to build in to our north to start the next week. Southerly flow returns on Monday and high temperatures slowly warm back up for the middle of next week. Highs on Monday will be in the 40s while Tuesday and Wednesday could feature highs in the low to mid 50s. A shortwave trough will pass just to our north on Tuesday and tighten the pressure gradient bringing us gusty southwesterly winds up to 30 mph. No precipitation is expected with that front. Thursday-Sunday: Highs on Wednesday and Thursday will be similar in the upper 40s to low 50s. Then, another cold front moves through on Thursday night and that front will be much stronger than the Tuesday front and will bring us a pretty strong cold snap. There are low chances (10-15%) for wintry precipitation to occur with that front and this is mainly for areas east of Highway 65 and north of I-44. Right now, model guidance has the St. Louis area seeing most of the action. Most of the area will stay dry. Thursday night is when it turns chilly again with lows in the teens and lower 20s. Highs for Friday and Saturday will be a bit cooler in the 30s with partly cloudy skies and lows in the single digits in some places with overnight wind chills in the single digits/below zero Friday into Saturday. Bundle up! && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1129 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 MVFR/IFR ceilings will persist through the period as a cold front makes its way south through the area. Winds will start out southerly tonight but turn northerly by 12z Sunday. Wind gusts could gust up to 20 knots by Sunday afternoon especially over southwest Missouri. Drizzle/patchy fog may linger behind the front on Sunday morning but will dissipate by the afternoon hours. Visibilities are expected to stay above 1 SM. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Soria LONG TERM...Soria AVIATION...Soria