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FXUS61 KILN 181415

AFDILN



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Wilmington OH

1015 AM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024



.SYNOPSIS...

Weak high pressure will move east across the middle Ohio Valley

today, resulting in dry weather. For tonight, low pressure will

ride northeast along an eastward advancing cold front, bringing

renewed chances for showers and thunderstorms. Precipitation 

will taper off on Friday as the front continues east. High 

pressure will then build back into the region for the weekend, 

bringing below normal temperatures along with chances for frost.



&&



.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

Not too many changes to the previous forecast. Tweaked

temperatures and dew points slightly as it took us a bit longer

to warm, but otherwise, everything on track. Should get pretty

dry this afternoon and RHs south of I-70 fall into the low

30s/upper 20%s. However, not too concerned about any type of

fire weather, given recent rains and lack of wind today. 



Previous discussion->Through sunrise, CAA stratocumulus clouds 

will skim our northern zones, while the rest of the region 

remains mostly clear. 



For today, dry weather is on tap as a weak ridge of high 

pressure traverses across the middle Ohio Valley. Some high 

clouds may spill into the region from the west, especially late 

due to upstream convection. It will be warm with highs ranging 

from the lower 70s north to the lower 80s south.



&&



.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...

For tonight, a lead mid level s/wv will eject east from the 

middle Mississippi Valley into the middle Ohio Valley. 

Associated low pressure and a cold front to our west will move 

east into the forecast area overnight. After analyzing various 

CAMs, it appears that we will see the weakening north end of an 

MCS complex. This weakening pcpn is expected to arrive into our 

forecast area later in the evening and during the overnight 

period when overall instability will be decreasing (falling 

below moderate instability) Thus, it appears that the threat for

any strong or severe storm will be limited to mainly the 

evening hours and across parts of our western CWFA. Isolated 

strong or damaging wind gusts would be the main threat. Showers 

and a few embedded thunderstorms will then continue overnight as

the system shifts farther into the CWFA. Lows will range from 

the upper 40s northwest to the lower 60s southeast.



On Friday, the cold front will exit east out of the forecast 

area by the afternoon hours. Pcpn will taper off and should then

end by the afternoon hours as well. Mostly cloudy skies will 

gradually become partly cloudy in the afternoon. Under a 

northwest flow, cooler temperatures are forecast. Highs will 

range from the upper 50s northwest to near 70 southeast.



&&



.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

High pressure builds in from the northwest Friday night through

Sunday night. Below average temperatures persist along with 

northwesterly/northerly flow. Forecast lows on Saturday night 

and Sunday night are expected to drop into the mid to lower 30s 

north of the Ohio River which could support frost. However, 

there still remains uncertainty in regards to frost potential 

this weekend since some cloud cover may remain in place 

overnight. High pressure finally moves overhead on Monday and 

Monday night continuing the trend of dry conditions and cool 

weather. 



The next chance for rain arrives on Tuesday and into the 

midweek when another upper level wave and surface cyclone may 

move across the region. Temperatures may moderate ahead of the 

disturbance before dropping back closer to seasonal averages 

behind the system.



&&



.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

For today, surface high pressure will eventually shift east by 

afternoon. It will remain dry as some high level clouds spill 

into the area from the west. Winds will shift to a 

south/southwest direction around 5 knots.



For tonight, low pressure is forecast to ride northeast along 

an advancing cold front into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. 

Showers and some embedded thunderstorms propagating east ahead 

of the main cold front may make it to the western terminals 

between 03Z and 06Z.



OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings/visibilities possible on Friday.



&&



.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

OH...None.

KY...None.

IN...None.



&&



$$

SYNOPSIS...Hickman

NEAR TERM...CA/Hickman

SHORT TERM...Hickman

LONG TERM...Campbell

AVIATION...Hickman