####018003653#### FXUS65 KPUB 070913 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 213 AM MST Sun Dec 7 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated snow showers in the central mtns, otherwise dry and a bit cooler today. - Main concern is the long term, especially this THU and FRI as lots of uncertainty temps/precip these days. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 210 AM MST Sun Dec 7 2025 Currently...Snow showers were still noted over the central mtns as Leadville ASOS and spotters were indicating snow still ongoing this location, along with the Monarch CDOT webcam still showing light snow. Additionally, Radar was showing some echoes over the plains, but doubt if any of this is reaching the ground. Temps early this morning were generally in the U20s to L30s plains with 20s in the valleys and single digits and 10s higher terrain. Winds were pretty light region-wide. Not much going on in the short term. Strong to moderate NW flow continues at mid levels, however a short wave ridge in this flow will cross the region later today and this will bring dry weather to the region. It will be a bit cooler today as compared to yesterday, but winds overall will be much less. Overall, we will be a few degrees below seasonable values across the region today. Tonight will be dry and chilly, with mins in the U10s to M20s plains and single digits and 10s mtns and valleys. \/Hodanish && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 210 AM MST Sun Dec 7 2025 The main concern is what is going to happen Thursday and Friday across the region. For Monday through Wednesday, we will see a modest warming trend across the region, with temps reaching the 50s to around 60 over the plains bey Wednesday. Isolated snow showers will be possible in the central mtns Monday and Tuesday, becoming more widespread by Wednesday. The remainder of the region will remain dry. Breezy conditions are likely across the region, especially Tuesday and Wednesday. Looking at the DESI statistical guidance, it appears the guidance products in the mid to long range are having an issue on the movement of an arctic air mass moving down across the north central part of the country during the THU and FRI time frame. Some of the members show max temps as low as the 20s for Friday while other members are as the 50s for the same day. Looking at the deterministic data, this is due to the location of an arctic air mass dropping south across the central part of the country. As an example, GFS is much farther west and has a 1050 arctic high pushing into the MT/Dakotas while the EC guidance is farther east with this system. Precip could also be an issue on these two days, If the cold air is farther west, then it could be cold and cloudy on the plains with light snow. The central mtns could see wind driven heavier snow. If the cold air remains farther east, then sunny skies are likely on the plains with a few snow showers central mtns. For the weekend, DESI statistical guidance is showing much less variability, with mild temperatures across the region as rigging develops aloft over the fcst area. \/Hodanish && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1044 PM MST Sat Dec 6 2025 VFR conditions with generally light winds remain expected at COS, PUB and ALS over the next 24 hours. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...HODANISH LONG TERM...HODANISH AVIATION...MW ####018007295#### FXUS63 KARX 070915 AFDARX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 315 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Snow likely (50-80% chance) near and north of I-94 Monday night. Snow accumulations of around an inch or less are currently expected. - A clipper system moves through the area bringing rain/snow Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning. Most snow accumulations are favored north of I-94 where probabilities (50-80%) are increasing for amounts of 2" or greater. Elsewhere, snow will either mix with or changeover to rain, limiting any snow accumulations. - Colder than normal temperatures expected each day next week except on Tuesday. Temperatures get progressively colder starting Wednesday with increasing probabilities (60-80% chance) for highs in the single digits come Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 315 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025 Today - Monday: Below Normal Temperatures, Light Snow Monday Night As snow exits east early this morning, northwest flow will establish itself over the region as the parent upper-level trough pushes east of the Upper-Mississipi Valley. As this occurs, surface high pressure will move into the area allow for some clearing in sky cover and aid in bringing cold advection into the area. Therefore, highs will take a tumble for today with values only reaching into upper single digits above zero to the teens and overnight lows falling to around 0. Temperatures will moderate some for Monday as the surface high pushes southeast of the local area with temperatures returning into the 20s for highs. The next feature to watch will be overnight on Monday as a weak shortwave pushes through northern WI during the overnight hours. Based on the current track of this system, this would likely confine much of the precipitation potential to near and north of I-94. Overall forcing with this wave is fairly weak with much of it rooted in mid-level QG convergence and not much frontogenetic footprint. Consequently, snowfall probabilities for an inch or greater are really only confined to north of Hwy 29 in Wisconsin and are not overly robust (40-60% chance) within the grand ensemble (GEFS/EC/Canadian ensemble). Tuesday: A Brief Warm-Up with Rain/Snow Likely, Accumulating Snow Potential Near and North of I-94 For Tuesday, a more substantial clipper system will follow on the heels of the Monday night wave that will take a similar path through the northwesterly synoptic flow across the northern half of Wisconsin. Overall the dynamics with this wave are more favorable as the deterministic global models (GFS/EC/NAM) generally agree on developing a robust surface low with fairly prominent warm advection in the surface warm sector. Near and north of the surface low, the 07.00z NAM depicts some fairly robust sloping fgen in the 600-800mb layer and isentropic lift which would provide some favorable ascent for a band of moderate to heavy snow to develop over portions of north-central WI during the evening hours on Tuesday and into the overnight. Consequently, probabilities are already fairly high (50- 80% chance) in the grand ensemble (GEFS/EC/Canadian ensemble) for snowfall amounts in excess of 2 inches assuming a 10:1 snow to liquid ratio north of I-94, which granted this SLR could be slightly higher given the present fgen. Further south of the low, the warm air advection in the low-levels should keep precipitation to either a rain/snow mix or just plain rain for much of the event Tuesday and into Tuesday night with the NBM keeping temperatures in the middle to upper 30s south of I-94. Additionally, GFS/NAM soundings for this event show a warm nose at 800mb at KLSE which combined with above freezing surface temps would only further support a more rain favored solution. Not seeing too much signal for any freezing rain potential out of this as the grand ensemble only has very low probabilities (0-20%) for any measurable ice accumulations. Wednesday - Saturday: Getting Progressively Colder, Possibly Bitter Cold by Friday/Saturday As we head into Wednesday morning, the surface low of the aforementioned system pushes east of the local area subjecting the region to both a strong surface pressure gradient and sharp cold air advection. Consequently, could see a brief period where precipitation transitions back over to snow for areas south of I-94. However, probabilities for accumulations of an inch of greater are very low (10-30% chance) south of I-94 during this period in the grand ensemble (GEFS/EC/Canadian ensemble). However, could see some breezy wind gusts Wednesday morning as the grand ensemble has relatively high probabilities (40-70%) for wind gusts over 30 mph, particularly in unsheltered areas of northeast IA and southeast MN. After this system completely departs our region, the progressively colder temperatures into the second half of the week and next weekend will be the main story. As we continue past Wednesday, persistent northwesterly flow and a descending shortwave on Friday will usher in some very strong cold advection into the region with stronger northerly flow. As a result, there is an increasingly strong signal for bitterly cold temperatures Friday and into Saturday with the inter-quartile range for highs in the grand ensemble generally staying in the single digits above zero for Saturday. This is further supported by the 06.12z EFI which already has an 70 to 90 percent chance for maximum temperatures to be colder than model climatology with a shift of tails of 0 present areawide which is a footprint of a few EC members having highs below 0 for Saturday. Needless to say looks like a fairly cold period later in the week. As far as precipitation chances, there does not seem to be any clear tangible wave outside of the aforementioned Friday wave shown in deterministic guidance. As a result, see mostly broad brushed medium probabilities (30-60% chance) for measurable snow in the grand ensemble from Thursday through Saturday. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1118 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 IFR conditions associated with ongoing snow should continue for the first 1-6 hours of the period, tapering off west to east over that time frame. As snow departs, some MVFR ceilings may remain briefly, but VFR conditions should return areawide by 12z. Remaining 18 hours should be VFR with relatively light winds, a welcome change for aviation interests. Next chance for reductions looks to be after 06z Monday when some low ceilings may affect areas west of the Mississippi. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for WIZ053>055-061. MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for MNZ096. IA...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for IAZ011-030. && $$ DISCUSSION...Naylor AVIATION...Ferguson